What is a frozen conflict?
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It's nearly 11 months now since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine and the war has reached somewhat of a stalemate.
Many observers expected a swift Russian victory at the start, no doubt including Vladimir Putin himself.
But Ukrainian resistance proved fierce.
Over the summer, Ukraine launched a counter -offensive and succeeded in taking back large parts of Russian -occupied territory.
As we head into 2023 there's a distinct possibility of the war becoming a drawn out affair, even turning into a frozen conflict.
That's a situation where fighting has ceased, but there's no clear resolution in the form of a peace treaty or political agreement.
Hostilities could resume at any moment and the climate is unstable.
A de facto situation may emerge, not necessarily matching the position taken by parties to the conflict.
This can lead to the existence of partially recognised states.
How could the Russia -Ukraine war become a frozen conflict?
Winter is likely to slow down, or even completely paralyse the conflict until at least spring 2023.
But it's still highly unlikely that Russia will accept coming to the table to negotiate.
In the case of a frozen conflict, it would be difficult for Ukraine to join NATO or the EU and Putin could retain some sort of control over the situation.
Indeed there had already been a frozen conflict for a number of years prior to the 2022 invasion.
Back in 2014, a few months after the start of the Euromaidan revolution, Russia annexed Crimea and supported independent militia fighting against Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
From 2015 onwards the conflict stalled.
Many observers suggest that frozen conflicts have actually been a part of Russian strategy ever since the USSR collapsed.
Why would that be in Russia's interests?
The aim is to maintain its influence over neighbouring countries, by destabilising them and then stepping in to keep the peace on its own terms.
It may encourage separatist ambitions which go against the will of the international community.
The so -called People's Republics in Donetsk and Luhansk are good examples.
While the conflicts in Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia are also frozen conflicts, which essentially allowed Russia to lock down post -Soviet space and extend its sphere of influence.
Regular listeners may remember our past episode on the Nagorno -Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
The region's population is majority Armenian, but it is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, who have the support of Russia.
There's a danger that situation might degenerate in 2023, given that Russia has been somewhat weakened by its struggles in Ukraine.
Are there frozen conflicts in other parts of the world too?
Indeed there are, and the peninsula was occupied by Japan from 1910 to 1945.
At the end of the Second World War, control of Korea became an ideological aim for both the Soviet Union and the USA.
It was split into North and South Korea, with forces from the former invading the latter in 1950.
Fighting ceased three years later, but technically the war never ended as no peace treaty was signed.
To this day, both countries lay claim to the entire peninsula and see the other as an extension of their own land.
There you have it. Now you know what a frozen conflict is.
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