Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
I'm Ariana Salvatore, head of public policy research for Morgan Stanley.
Today I'll be talking about how investors should be digesting the latest tariff headlines and what they could mean for the broader economic and market outlook.
It's Friday, June 5th at 10 a.m. in New York.
Tariffs are back in focus, as the US administration has proposed new levies following Section 301 investigations into more than 60 of our trading partners.
At the same time, USMCA negotiations appear to have begun in earnest, with recent headlines focused on autos, including the possibility of raising regional content requirements for vehicles and auto parts.
Now, at first glance, these developments sound like a meaningful escalation in trade policy.
But we think these headlines are best understood as a continuation of the existing tariff regime rather than a new and more disruptive phase.
Let's start with Section 301.
Listeners may recall that the administration replaced the IEPA tariffs with Section 122 following the Supreme Court's decision back in February.
However, that was done under a temporary authority that expires in the end of July.
It's been our view that, as we approach that deadline, the administration would seek to replace the existing regime under a new authority.
The conclusion of the Section 301 investigations is really a step in that direction or, said differently, a continuation of existing policy.
We see the administration preserving the current tariff regime come July, but without a larger inflation or growth shock.
The second issue is the USMCA.
Raising regional content rules may be part of the negotiation now, and those changes could create sector level friction.
Similarly, we think it's possible, we see escalation ahead of the July deadline as all three countries work to improve the existing trade deal.
Now, that being said, we're still constructive on the longer-term trade alignment between the US, Mexico and Canada, and we see structural and procedural constraints that are going to limit the downside risk to something like a potential withdrawal from the agreement.
We still expect the USMCA carve-out to remain in place even for Section 301 goods on a range of trading partners.
That's because we think the administration sees value in maintaining supply chain integration within North America across a number of sectors.
In general, we actually think the recent pattern on tariffs has been toward less, not more, trade pressure at the margin.
Recent months have come with several carve-outs, exemptions and delays on broad-based and sectoral tariffs.
That suggests that the administration is still sensitive to the downstream cost impact of tariffs.
And of course, affordability matters politically heading into the midterm elections in November.
That view also fits with our broader U.S. economics outlook.
Our economists continue to see a relatively benign macro backdrop.
Growth is expected to remain trendlike, with consumer spending slowing but not collapsing and strong AI-led CapEx offsetting some of the drag from higher energy prices and policy uncertainty.
On inflation tariffs remain part of the story, but much of the pass-through appears to be already in the data.
That pairs with a more constructive outlook for equity markets, as well as our strategists.
There see a strong earnings story supported by things like positive operating leverage, AI adoption, improving pricing power and a broadening out in earnings growth.
So the key message for investors is this.
Tariff policy is still noisy, and it will remain a source of headline risk.
But in our base case, the administration is moving toward a more durable version of the current tariff regime, not a materially more disruptive or restrictive one.
Section 301 replaces Section 122.
The USMCA carve-out stays in place and selective exemptions continue where the affordability or supply chain costs are too high.
Thanks for listening.
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