And now, it's time for Who Smarted?
Psst.
Hey there, smarty pants.
So glad you could make it to the Who Smarted Family Picnic.
That's right.
We've got snacks, games, and later, Chet Nickerson is going to put on a puppet show.
Oh boy.
Thankfully, it's a perfect day for a picnic.
The sun is shining, there's a gentle breeze, and barely a cloud in the sky.
Well, except for that big gray one over there that I didn't notice until just now.
Yes, yes.
I see dark clouds in your future.
Uh, I'm sorry.
I don't remember inviting a spooky fortune teller to the picnic.
And you are?
Virga.
The name's Virga.
I am indeed a spooky fortune teller.
However, I am not here to predict your future.
I am here to predict the weather.
Ah!
Yes, I see dark clouds.
Many, many dark clouds.
And lots of rain.
Look!
Look at this candle!
Uh, yes, I see the candle that you're suddenly holding.
Stare closely at the flame.
See how it flickers and flares.
You know what that means, don't you?
Uh, you're talking too close to it?
No, it means rain and wind and a near future where you get very, very, very wet.
All right, I ain't buying any of this.
A candle flame does not predict the weather.
Oh, you underestimate the power of the candle.
What do you think, smarty pants?
Uh-huh.
Yeah.
The smarty pants don't trust this forecast either.
Instead, I'm going to check my phone's weather app from expert meteorologists.
Did someone say meteorologist?
This is Chet Nickerson reporter, meteorologist and amateur puppeteer here with the latest weather report.
It looks like it's going to be a beautiful day in Smartyville plenty of sunshine and only a 33 chance of precipitation, which in this case means rain.
Ah, now that's what I like to hear.
But Smarty Pants, do you know what 33% means?
Well, in case you don't, let's say I go to a pizza parlor and order three slices, two cheese and one with pineapples.
Which part is 33% of my order?
Well, since 33% is the same as one-third, then one slice is 33% of the order.
Now let's say the one pineapple slice represents rain.
Then the two cheese slices would represent no rain.
That's 66%.
I like those chances.
And by the way, I would only eat 66% of the pizza because I do not like pineapples on my pizza.
Oh, but you are mistaken.
Really?
You like pineapples on pizza?
No, not the pineapples.
The percent of rain.
Oh.
Um, Smarty Pants, what do you think?
I certainly don't think it'll... rain.
Ha!
I was right!
Ah, and so was Chet Nickerson, meteorologist.
Hold on.
How can you both be right?
Chet, you said it probably wouldn't rain here.
Not true.
Tell me, trusty, when you hear a weather forecast, do you know what it really means?
Uh, I guess not.
Smarty Pants, what does a weather forecast really mean?
And how do meteorologists predict the weather in the first place?
And how often are they right?
It's time for another whiff of science and history on... Who's Smarted?
Who's Smarted?
Who's Smart?
Is it you?
Is it me?
Is it science?
Or history?
Listen up, everyone.
We make smarting lots of fun.
Well, Smarty Pants, it seems to be raining on our picnic, even though it was supposed to be sunny.
Hey, now, I did say there was a chance of rain.
And I warned him first.
Right.
I'm here with two party crashers.
A weather fortune teller named Virga, who is apparently named after a type of rainstorm.
Yes, my parents knew I'd be a great forecaster someday.
And news sports and weatherman Chet Nickerson, who gave us a lousy forecast.
How dare you, trustee?
I think someone needs to learn a thing or two about meteorology.
Mm-hmm.
Right.
Don't people say it's the only profession where you can be wrong all the time and still get paid?
Oh, trusty, that is way off the mark.
It actually might surprise you, but meteorologists are right way more often than you think.
Oh, really?
Well, let's take a step back and start with a basic question.
What is a meteorologist?
And why is the study of weather called meteorology?
Smarty Pants, is it because A, forecasters once used meat to predict the weather?
B, ancient forecasters thought meteors turned into raindrops.
Or C, meteorology comes from a Greek word meaning a thing high up.
If you said C, you're right.
The Greek word meteoron refers to anything high in the sky, including thunderclouds and meteors.
Now, for bonus points, can you guess who made that term famous?
Is it A the Greek philosopher Aristotle, B the Greek ruler Alexander the Great or C the Greek mythological god Zeus?
If you said C, you picked the Greek god of weather, but the correct answer is A, Aristotle.
Oh, I love Aristotle.
He was so smart.
Aristotle was very smart, but his book on weather, considered the first of its kind, contains a lot of errors.
For example, it says the Earth is at the center of the universe with three moving layers above it.
Water, air, and fire.
Aristotle said the Earth exhaled vapors.
Sigh. to create weather.
Some ideas in Aristotle's book came from ancient Egyptians and Babylonians before him and reflected weather and climate beliefs of Aristotle's time, which was more than 2350 years ago.
So, Smarty Pants, about how long do you suppose it took for scientists to prove Aristotle wrong?
75 years?
500 years?
Or 2,000 years?
Unbelievably, the answer is 2,000 years.
That's incredible, but true.
Until the 1600s, Aristotle was the weather authority.
Of course, now we know the Earth is not the center of the solar system, never mind the universe, and there's no fire above the air.
But air motion does create weather.
The sun doesn't hit every part of the earth at the same time, so it heats air unevenly, making it move about with some assistance from the earth's rotation and the moon and sun's gravitational forces.
This movement mixes hot and cold air, along with vapor from oceans and other bodies of water, creating clouds and eventually rain, hail or snow.
With this knowledge of how weather forms, meteorologists like me can forecast it, though we still need a little help.
Yes, from hogs.
Oink.
Hogs?
Wait, how did hogs end up here?
We didn't invite hogs to the picnic.
Oh, I bring them everywhere I go.
If hogs make squeal, then it's going to be windy.
No, smarty pants, trust me, meteorologists do not rely on hogs.
What they do use to forecast the weather is... What?
If you know, shout it out.
In the meantime, here's an audio hint.
That's right, they use a balloon.
Well, not just any balloon, but a special weather balloon.
In fact, at least twice a day, one of the world's leading weather organizations, America's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, sends balloons into the air from nearly 100 different locations.
Each balloon has sensors for air pressure, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction.
And here's something else they use.
Know that sound?
It's radar.
Yes!
Radar uses radio waves to detect nearby precipitation, cloud rotation, wind strength, wind direction and more.
And other electronic monitors, and even human volunteers send meteorologists information about current conditions in their area.
Since meteorologists know the direction the air is moving.
If they know it's raining in one location, they can predict where that rain will be one, two or several days later.
There's also a tool that lives in outer space.
Do you know what it is?
Did you say a satellite?
Satellites give meteorologists like me the big picture.
Some satellites capture images of the entire Earth every 30 seconds.
So you can see where all that weather is coming and going.
And then all this information from radar satellites, weather balloons, volunteers and more is brought together and analyzed using one of these.
A computer.
Ah, but not just any computer.
A supercomputer.
The supercomputers used by NOAA meteorologists are nearly six million times more powerful than the computer or tablet you have at home.
These supercomputers use big mathematical equations, weather history and analysis of current weather conditions and air movement to predict what will happen next.
But the supercomputer's forecast models are not always perfect.
Most times, they still need people with expertise like me meteorologists, to tweak them and come up with a far more accurate forecast.
You know, like the one I gave today.
But you said there was only a 33% chance of rain, and now it's pouring!
You should have trusted the candle.
Actually, trustee, my forecast was right on the money.
How?
Smarty pants, I think we deserve some answers right after this quick break.
We'll be right back.
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Now back to Who's Smarted.
Smartypants, as I stand here in the pouring rain getting soaked, tell me, how much should you trust a weather forecast?
Take your typical five-day prediction.
How often do you think it's wrong?
Most of the time?
Half the time?
Once or twice?
According to Noah...
A five-day forecast today can accurately predict the weather 90% of the time.
That means it's wrong only once out of every 10 times.
And a seven-day forecast is 80% accurate.
Predicting weather farther out from that is more dicey.
If you're looking at a 10-day forecast, it's only accurate half the time, or 50%.
You know, people love to focus on our mistakes, but it's amazing how often we're right.
The atmosphere is huge and complex and any little thing can change the direction and power of a potential storm.
Sometimes it's just impossible to catch everything that's going on.
But we're getting much, much better at it.
And forecasts today are far more reliable than they were just 10 years ago.
Except today, when you were wrong.
Uh, was not.
Was too.
You said there was a 33% chance of rain, which basically means it probably won't rain.
But now it's pouring, and I'm drenched.
Aha!
See, that's where you're wrong.
Many things go into a weather forecast, including geography.
And that's where expert meteorologists like me are truly needed.
When you hear a percentage, it's not just the odds as to whether you'll get bad weather.
It's actually the result of a mathematical equation.
And that equation is this.
The area where the rain might happen.
Like your town times a meteorologist's confidence it will occur.
Sometimes, I'm only a little confident it'll rain over the entire area.
And in that case, you might be surprised by a storm.
And here I was, 100% sure it was going to rain, but only in one-third of Smartyville.
And one-third of 100% is 33%.
And I was right.
Unfortunately, the one-third of Smartyville where the storm hit includes this park where you decided to have your picnic and puppet show.
Should have had it across town near the dog run.
It's not raining there.
I'm not hosting a party at a dog run.
Yeah, bad idea.
But I knew it was going to rain last night.
How?
The moon.
It was pale with fuzzy edges.
What makes you think that's a sign of rain?
The Farmer's Almanac from 1837.
Ah, yes, that makes sense.
You see, smarty pants, back in the 1800s and earlier, people didn't have phones TV, the internet or radio to give them the latest forecast.
So they relied on superstitions and weather folklore, some of which appeared in books like The Farmer's Almanac.
These things seemed to work, like they did today, but there's not much science behind it.
For a more accurate forecast, stick with the meteorologists.
Exactly.
And look, it's clearing up.
Time for a puppet show right after I grab a quick bite.
What do we have to eat?
Pizza, except it's all soggy.
No, that's just from the pineapples.
Who wants some?
Oh, I'm good.
Same.
A big shout out to super smarty fan Ellie in Exeter, New Hampshire, who thinks the show is funny and even a little bit of a game.
I also hear that Jack Nickerson is your favorite.
Well, he's one of my favorites, too.
Keep on smarting, Ellie.
This episode Weather was written by Dave Breezy Beaudry and voiced by Olivia Light, Drizzle Davis, Adam Downpour Davis and Jerry Kolber.
Technical direction and sound design by Josh Hailstorm Hahn.
Who Smarted is recorded and mixed at the Relic Room Studios.
Our associate producer is Max Coldfront Kamaski.
The theme song is by Brian Snowflurry Suarez.
Lyrics written and performed by Adam Tex Davis.
Who Smarted? was created and produced by Adam Tex Davis and Jerry Kolber.
This has been an Atomic Entertainment production.
