Daily news and analysis.
We keep you informed and inspired.
This is World Today.
Hello and welcome to World Today, I'm Ding Hen in Beijing.
Coming up.
President Xi Jinping calls for multiple measures to advance rural vitalization and improve farmers' life.
Chinese authorities say that the country's financial sector achieved pivotal progress during the country's 14th five-year plan.
Putin offers to abide by nuclear arms deal with the United States for one more year after the deal expires and Japan's ruling LDP leadership race has kicked off with five contenders.
To listen to this episode again or to catch up on our previous episodes.
You can download our podcast by searching World Today.
First up.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for multiple measures to boost farmers' employment and income and advance all-round rural vitalization.
Xi Jinping made a remark ahead of the 8th Chinese Farmers' Harvest Festival that fell on Tuesday.
The Chinese leader has extended greetings and sincere regards to farmers and people working in the agricultural and rural sectors.
He also urged authorities at all levels to give priority to the development of rural areas and agriculture.
The annual Chinese Farmers' Harvest Festival began in 2018.
So joining us now on the line is Professor Liu Baocheng from the University of International Business and Economics.
So thank you very much for joining us today, Professor Liu.
First of all, do you agree that modernizing the agricultural sector in rural areas is an integral part of China's modernization process?
For example, when we talk about the agricultural industry, we know in the United States, for example, only about 2-3 of the national labor force is working in the agricultural sector.
Do you think this is the direction for the development of China's agriculture?
Well, the answer is absolutely.
Besides, it is crucial and imperative because China has roughly 600 million people who are still the rural population.
China has been suffering from the divide between urban area and rural area along its history.
Now we have seen a large hope after the elimination of extreme poverty.
Now the rural revitalization program does really lend a great hope for the rural area to be integrated in the path for collective development, whereas the urban area.
It is there to prevent the polarization that is taking place in many other developing countries like India and many countries in Latin America, et cetera.
And as for the US model, we are vastly different, but there are a number of issues that we can really benchmark on.
One is really they build their agriculture on a large scale, with more of the household farming dealing with a large piece of land and also with more of the collectives to form collective bargaining power and also mutual assistance.
The mobility not only for people but for all resources, not only within their own country but on a global basis, So this can really provide more added value to their productivity in the agriculture.
And also to financialize the agriculture, not only by providing insurance, but to set up exchanges, such as the Chicago Board, to deal with the global marketplace.
So this is something that we can really borrow from.
But China has its own peculiar situation.
All the land, by its very nature, belongs to the collectives and also belongs to the government.
The farmers are exploring the land produce on a 10-year renting basis.
So this is really providing China, on one hand, strategic advantages by further integration, But also individual households need to be given more of the assurance over their land during the renting process.
And also they need to be able to form such sort of institutional structure where they can really contribute and get the fair share, so that a large scale operation can be delivered in the right place.
Against the backdrop of the looming climate crisis, natural disasters such as extreme weather are becoming increasingly frequent, more frequent.
What kind of support should be given to China's farmers and the agricultural sector to increase their resilience in the face of natural disasters?
This is really a very systematic risk management structure where model layers of consideration need to be taking place in terms of the early warning prevention, mitigation and the rapid response and, together with recovery and also the disaster relief.
I think now China is sophisticated in dealing with climate-smart agriculture and they can provide the drought tolerant crop varieties.
Diversify the crop rotation agroforestry.
I think now what is more important is how to incentivize and persuade the farmers to deal with the soil health instead of getting a short-term productivity.
Also that more of the infrastructure needs to be further improved and also education is also needed.
To deal with water saving irrigation program, we also need not only the monitoring of the agricultural operation.
We also need to to strengthen the zoning program by re-engineering in terms of watershed management, terracing Westland restoration shelter belt to reduce the flood or erosion risks.
So the infrastructure needs constant surveillance and also constant upgrading in order to build more of the resilient irrigation system and also elevated storage.
Technology is also needed to address the climate-hardened greenhouse effects, to move on to more of the industrial elements into the primary products, like the processing packaging, decentralized chain hubs and even industrial zones that are there to be able to collect the contribution from individual households into collective processing.
Now countryside tourism has now become a commonplace sector to boost the economic activities in China's rural communities.
Is this a sustainable way to advance rural vitalization for the rural regions that don't really have tourism resources?
How can they cultivate their own unique industries?
I think that's a very important question, because many people from the urban area do really want to escape during weekends or during long-term holidays, but they are very picky in terms of the end destination.
They do not only care about what type of unique produces they are able to provide at the local basis.
They also take into a holistic consideration into where can they get more recreation?
Where can they get more comfort?
It's not only dealing with the crop, but also do they have the right type of accommodation?
Do they have the right type of public toilets?
And we have the clean water.
So this is something that to be driven by the end market end.
And also, you know, the connectivity, of course, is the basic condition.
So I think Chinese government has done a great job in building all the roads and also to build more of the telecommunication programs.
So Wi-Fi is necessary, almost universally available now.
Farmers also need to be trained and you know, it's not only was the very traditional type of hospitality, hospitality they also need to be elevated in terms of their understanding what is really the customer demand.
They may, they may feel okay by providing their level of service but uh, the customers can be more demanding and they need to be trained with more of the professional capability to welcome and also to service those tourists.
I think the the last way, i think the for any tourism.
So the key is how to keep the guests stay longer for a variety of consumption.
So therefore, social immunity And also the credibility will be something that is important to keep the customers to stay longer and also to pay repeated visits to those agricultural areas.
We know the Chinese government has a Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
But, on the other hand, what do you think is the role that should be played by other government agencies or departments if China wants to energize and incentivize its farmers and villagers across the country to build a beautiful and harmonious countryside?
That's a fair question.
Because Chinese agricultural development along the path of modernization is highly sophisticated, it requires also sophisticated coordination between a whole variety of government departments.
For example, in addition to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the ministry of commerce, can they really be able to streamline some of the logistics and provide more of the support in co-chain operation in the performance linked funding?
That's something from the ministry of finance.
And can the tax authorities be able to provide more uh friendly type of tax schemes for those farmers also?
The ministry of finance can really uh, can they distribute the right amount and also in time?
The type of subsidies for the agricultural development.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
They have a great job in dealing with digitization of the Chinese rural economy.
And so by providing the broadband digital public utilities support for e-commerce platform, the Ministry of Education can also provide a better capacity building for those farmers.
Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.
They can also liberate more of the control in the migration, you know, on a two-way traffic, so that they will be able to build a better connect and engagement between rural area and the urban area.
So the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development, they can really be there to give more guidance and also give them more of the support for rural house quality building, sanitation program, village planning, so that, you know, tourism can be further developed.
The market regulations are there to give, not only to transcend their standardized control, but also to give them more of the comfort in the regulatory compliance with regard to quality, with regard to the use of certain technologies, critical materials, as adjectives to their native produce.
So, after all, we need synthesized the operation to deal with the sophisticated problem that is there in the way of the Chinese rural modernization.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Professor Liu Baocheng from the University of International Business and Economics.
Coming up.
Chinese authorities say that the country's financial sector achieved pivotal progress during the 14th five-year plan.
You're listening to World Today.
We'll be back.
You are listening to World Today.
I'm Ding Hen in Beijing.
China's financial regulators have highlighted openness and efforts supporting tech innovation during the country's 14th five-year plan from 2021 to 2025.
Central Bank Governor Pan Gongshen says China's banking sector has accumulated assets worth 470 trillion yuan, or 66 trillion US dollars, ranking first globally.
China has also become the world's second-largest stock market and bond market and has remained as the top holder of foreign exchange reserves.
Meanwhile, the chief of China's securities regulator has reported a 58 surge in terms of the stock market misconduct penalties for the past five years, compared to the previous five-year planned period.
The eight-year market has become much more resilient against the risks, with tech shares accounting for a quarter of the total capitalization.
So joining us now on the line is Dr Yao Shujian, Chang Kong, Professor of Economics with Chongqing University.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Hello, nice to meet you.
So, first of all Professor, to what extent do the sizes of China's banking sector assets, China's stock market and bond market matter?
Well, it matters a lot because the Chinese economy, measured by nominal GDP, is second in the world, so it should be reflected in the financial market, the financial assets, as well.
I'm quite pleased to see the financial assets accumulated by the financial institution is now up to 470 trillion RMB, which is the largest in the world.
You know, although China has not been the major financial exchange market and bond market, but it's now number two after the United States.
This different Chinese nominal position in the global GDP ranking.
So this size is basically the overall strength of the Chinese real economy and the financial sector.
So, with regard to this much more stock market misconduct penalties over the past five years compared to the previous five-year plan period, do you think it is because of the securities regulators increased capability in terms of say, preventing or resolving the relevant risks, or simply because there have been more instances of misconduct during this period?
I think it could be both and could be even more complicated than what we have been describing, because of the you know the regulatory capability or because of the you know the problem in the financial system.
I think, as the Chinese security market getting bigger and bigger, more companies are listed into the stock exchange, then there will be more problem.
And also the internet technology, the AI, the digital economy, the internet of things.
It makes things easier for the regulator to extract information, including the illegal and also problematic information in the listed company.
So I think there are a number of factors they are putting together.
First of all, the problem still exists because the market is bigger.
And secondly, the government is very determined to get the financial market correct without too much risk for the investors, and certainly it's the technological methods that enable the regulators to investigate and to identify problems within the stock market and also the security market.
Now I think this trend will continue because investors are very concerned about the cleanliness, about the social responsibility of listed companies, so that the investment will be safe also with an expected steady return to the investment.
So there is some sort of difficulty within the system.
On the one hand, you want to list the company.
On the other hand, you want the company to behave fairly well so that they can meet the expectation of the investors as well as the regulators.
Now, in the meantime, over the past five years, China's foreign exchange reserves have remained at a stable level, above US3 trillion.
Actually, over the past two years, according to official figures, it has remained above US32 trillion.
So What does the stability in terms of the foreign exchange reserve here mean to China's international economic or financial operations?
China is a big country and China also is a big open economy.
I mean, if China wants to be fully open and to support the large scale of import and export activity, it will require lots of foreign exchange.
And China does earn lots of trade surplus and also attracting lots of foreign direct investment into China, so it needs a significant size of foreign exchange reserves maybe 31, 32 trillion of foreign exchange reserves over the last five or ten years.
It proves that this is probably sufficient and is adequate enough to present China's resilience for the international financial system.
Of course, there's a trade-off of efficiency and also the amount of foreign exchange reserves.
But it is inevitable that for a big country like China, we do need a large amount of foreign exchange reserve as a financial guarantee, financial insurance to some extent for China's ability to cope with external shock, especially some sort of short-term you know trade condition.
And also uh, because the, the chinese currency, is not yet the global currency.
So you have to depend to a great extent on the, on the foreign exchange, especially the us dollar, the euro and a bunch of other you know high currency in the world um, to give the safety net for the chinese uh economy as well as the, the high level, high volume of foreign trade.
Now.
The technology sector's capitalization in China's A-share market now accounts for over one quarter, or nearly one quarter, around one quarter of the total, significantly higher than the combined share of banking non-banking, financial and real estate sectors.
What do you make of the role played by the financial sector when we talk about supporting China's tech innovation?
Yeah, the tech innovation is a new emerging sector in the stock market.
One quarter of the total value represented by the tech company is really a very significant proportion.
Now, in order to have this significant proportion and probably in the future it may also increase to a certain extent they need lots of financial support the banking institution, the non-bank institution and also the investment capital.
These are the kinds of channels to support the investment in the technology company.
Because technological company itself is a very important driver of high quality economic growth, particularly in the medium and the longer term.
So there is a virtuous circle between the tech company, the financial institution and the real economy.
They are intertwined.
I think the financial institution financial support for the tech innovation is really essential, very important for the successful development of the high-tech company.
Now, the final question before we let you go.
According to a recent Goldman Sachs report, the surge in investment from overseas has helped add a combined US3 trillion in terms of the market value to both China's onshore and offshore equities so far this year.
In your opinion, what has driven the increased attractiveness of Chinese assets?
Well, first of all, we should recognize this 3 trillion US dollar net increase of market value in the one year period is fairly significant.
Why is it significant?
It's because the Chinese economy is getting bigger and bigger and there's ample opportunities of investment into the domestic market and also the offshore market in China, because there are lots of world-class emerging companies which are highly attractive, which have a huge potential of long-term return.
So foreign capital.
Their primary objective is for financial stability as well as the return for the investment.
And, I believe, the Chinese domestic, the onshore and offshore financial system, particularly the listed company.
They present a great opportunity for foreign investors to make money, to get long-term investment.
Thank you very much for putting this into perspective.
Professor Yao Shujie, Chang Kong Professor of Economics, joining us from Chongqing University.
Coming up.
Putin offers to abide by nuclear arms deal with the United States for one more year after the deal expires.
Japan's ruling LDP leadership race has officially kicked off with five contenders.
You are listening to World Today.
To listen to this episode again or to catch up on our previous episodes, download our podcast by searching World Today.
I'm Dinghan in Beijing.
We'll be back after a short break.
You are back with World Today.
I'm Ding Hen in Beijing.
Angolan Ambassador to the United Nations, Francisco Jose de Cruz, says China has contributed actively to the UN's work in peacekeeping, development and global governance.
Speaking on the 80th anniversary of the UN, he highlighted China-Angola cooperation in advancing multilateral initiatives and supporting Angola's development goals.
The ambassador has also shared Angola's experience in terms of peacebuilding, climate resilience projects, as well as his country's call for stronger multilateralism.
My colleague Anna Nadeau had a talk with the ambassador.
Now, China has been very active at the United Nations.
It's become increasingly influential, especially when we look at China's contributions in things like peacekeeping development, as well as global governance as well.
From Angola's perspective, how do you view China's contribution?
And what role do you see China play in the future?
Well, we see China as an important member of the United Nations, one of the most important contributors to the regular budget of the United Nations and implementing other initiatives, like the UN Peace and Development Fund, which was created 10 years ago by China to support the United Nations in areas like peace and security development, climate change.
So it has been a very important and a very active player.
And based on the good relations we have with China, we work very, very closely in many international issues.
China has been very important in G77 agenda.
You know helping to move forward with such agenda within the UN system.
China is also one of Angola's biggest economic partners, particularly when we look at infrastructure and energy as well.
How do you see the future of the China-Angola relationship evolving?
And how can this relationship advance Angola's development goals?
You know, we have established diplomatic relations since 1983 and the partnership has been evolving.
Since then, we had six presidential visits to China two with the current president, His Excellency Jean-Marie Alvarez, one in 2018.
The last one, in 2024, in which we sign more than 10 agreements of cooperation.
We have been benefiting from this relationship.
We see China as an important partner to help us to advance with our development agenda.
What we are looking for is to see more Chinese companies to be established in the country to help us to develop our industry, instead of just, you know, providing goods to be able to produce them locally, so we can create more jobs, you know, a broader base for economic development by having these companies producing in the country.
Angola has had a history of conflict, but is now considered one of the stabilizing forces in southern Africa.
What lessons can be learned from Angola's peace process and how the country achieved peace to many of the conflicts we see today?
We are a country that went through...
Almost 30 years of internal conflict and we were able to resolve it.
Now we have a country stable with a very dynamic and inclusive democracy.
Peace is possible in Africa.
Peace is possible in countries going through conflict situations.
And we have been providing our experience and our commitment to peace resolved to peace resolution.
But to conflict resolution, by helping other countries facing those kind of challenges.
We are talking about the Democratic Republic of Congo, where His Excellency President, John Lorenzo, was very involved in a mediation under a mandate provided by the African Union until very recently, when he passed that responsibility to the president of Togo.
As As the chair of the International Conference on Great Lakes Regions, the president of Angola has been also providing his leadership to see how the region can be more stable, focus on development by finding inclusive solutions to the challenges these countries are facing.
Our participation in Central African Republic has been also very important to assist this country to move forward with national reconciliation and the democratic process.
That is based on what we see as our responsibility to on conflict prevention, management and resolution agenda as part of the African Union effort to silence the guns in the continent.
One of the signature challenges of our time, of course, is climate change.
And developing countries like Angola are disproportionately affected by climate change.
What role should the United Nations play in ensuring climate justice?
And how can Angola work with its international partners to build resilience?
Well, we have been very involved in the discussions within the UN system regarding climate change and ways of mitigating the impact.
Countries affected, like Angola, need to have financing support to overcome this, the shortcomings coming from the climate change.
We are suffering a very severe drought, the worst in the last four years.
And to address that, the government has been implementing, you know, structural projects, one of which is the Kafu Canal 130 kilometers of canal diverting water from a the Kunene River to a number of communities so they can continue to have a stable and a productive life and so they don't need to move to other areas which can create problems with the other established communities.
So it's important that countries who have contribute the most to the impact of climate change be able to provide the necessary funding to assist countries from the global south countries like Angola, countries in Africa, to address the hardship and the impact of climate change.
One of the disturbing trends that we see these days is how major powers are putting up protectionist barriers.
They are moving to a place where they're behaving in a unilateral way.
From your perspective, what risks does that pose to the entire concept of multilateralism?
And how can smaller states like Angola safeguard their own interests?
We think that multilateralism is important to find solutions to problems affecting the international community.
And that's the best way for all members of the United Nations to be able to participate in a very fair and equal footing.
We think that the UN system needs to be reformed and that's why, as Africa, we think It's important to reform the UN Security Council.
In our case, to address an historical injustice, being the fact that we are the only continent not represented in a category of permanent members of the Security Council.
We have put forward a common African position which states that we should have two permanent seats and five non-permanent seats to be able to more effectively defend the interests of the African continent in the Security Council and to be able to provide our views on how problems regarding peace and security can be addressed, even due to the fact that 60 of the Security Council agenda is related to conflicts in Africa.
Angolan Ambassador to the United Nations, Francisco Joe Stegfruits, talking with my colleague, Anna Nadeau.
Coming up.
Putin offers to abide by a nuclear arms deal with the US for one year after the deal expires.
You're listening to World Today.
We'll be back.
You're back with World Today.
I'm Ding Han in Beijing.
Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has declared his readiness to adhere to nuclear arms limits for one more year under the last remaining nuclear pact with the United States.
The Russian leader is urging Washington to follow suit.
Putin said on Monday that allowing the New START agreement, signed in 2010, to expire would be destabilizing and could fuel proliferation of nuclear weapons.
The treaty was originally supposed to expire in 2021, but was extended for five more years to February 2026.
The treaty is limiting the United States and Russia to no more than 1550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers.
So joining us now on the line is Dr Kamal Makini-Aliyev, Associate Professor with the School of Global Studies, University of Gothenburg.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Thank you for having me.
So, first of all, why do you think Mr. Putin has made this particular offer?
I think there's a combination of factors here.
One is that, if we take the treaty in general, it's one of those treaties about nuclear proliferation that is less contentious in the United States and Russia relations.
On the other hand, I think it's more of a tactical move than an expression of goodwill from President Putin.
I think on one level he's trying to project Russia as a responsible actor, the one keeping nuclear stability intact.
And on the other hand, it's a pressure tactic.
By going public, he forces Washington either to reciprocate or be painted as a spoiler.
And then it also buys Moscow time a year's pause.
Basically, that gives some breathing space to manage the arsenal, while keeping arms control as a bargaining chip tied to Ukraine and the sanctions.
So do you think on the part of Washington, U.S.
President Donald Trump is likely to accept this offer from his Russian counterpart?
With President Trump, it's very hard to make certain predictions.
He is famously unpredictable.
But generally I think he might treat this as very appealing because it can give Trump a quick diplomatic win, and he likes those.
But acceptance won't be unconditional.
The United States probably will demand the inspections and the data exchanges to be renewed, because without verification, the treaty loses a lot of its meaning. and i think trump's team has also been very vocal about voting uh wanting uh that the china is also involved in the in the future networks about this kind of uh issues of the strategic ballistic missiles and nuclear arms tied to the strategic ballistic missiles so i think the the acceptance in for the short-term extension is likely but it's also going to be with strings attached and going to push the fold into the broader more ambitious negotiation Now, beyond this specific issue with regard to extending the existing New START treaty immediately, that's a very immediate issue.
Beyond that, what do you see as the main challenges for US-Russia talks regarding a broader, more durable treaty?
Well, like I said before, this is the less challenging treaty because the biggest challenge of the nuclear negotiations between Russia and the United States is the scope of those negotiations and the start only covers you know, deployed strategic warheads and additional launchers.
But the nuclear landscape has already changed many times over since the inception of those kind of negotiations about the first treaty covering the strategic warheads.
So we're now talking about tactical nuclear weapons, we're talking about hypersonics, we're talking about new delivery systems, missile defense, even space assets.
And none of this is addressed in the start.
It's the other treaties that have.
Now, in 2023, Mr Putin suspended Moscow's participation in this New START treaty, saying that Russia couldn't allow US inspection of the Russian nuclear sites, at a time when Washington and its NATO allies have openly declared Moscow's military defeat in Ukraine as their goal.
So, looking to the future, to what extent do you think this new Star Treaty's future or destiny will be linked to how the war in Ukraine will develop?
I think very tightly because, as you say, Russia itself suspended the treaty last year, citing the war.
So if a conflict escalates further and Moscow feels cornered, it has little incentive to stay in the arms control engagements.
And, on the other hand, if there is progress made towards de-escalation or the ceasefire, the political space to re-engage in verification and negotiations will widen.
In short, the fate of New START doesn't sit in isolation.
It rises and falls over the trajectory of the Ukraine war.
That's it.
Now the trajectory of the Ukraine.
War is one thing, is one aspect, but what about this broader West-Russia relationship?
Do you think this bigger relationship between the Western bloc and Moscow will also play a key role in terms of determining not only this limited New START treaty but the broader nuclear negotiations between Moscow and Washington in the future?
I think a lot will hinge on what will be the Trump's response right now, if it's going to go towards this, as I'm predicting a quick diplomatic win and the short-term extension which may start the positive dynamic in terms of nuclear negotiations between US and Russia.
But again, we always have to check back to the Ukraine war and see the dynamic there, because it will be the ultimate determinant of how this is going to play out in the US and Russian relations, because the nuclear weapons negotiations and the nuclear control, arms control, is just one aspect of strategic relations between the United States and Russia.
And Ukraine Ukraine war is a huge spoiler in those relations.
Now earlier you also briefly talked about China or possible Chinese involvement in future negotiations.
So the final question before we let you go, I mean on the part of the Chinese government.
We have a pledge that we will never be the first power to use nuclear weapons, under any circumstances.
Do you think such a pledge is enough, or do you think it is a good idea for China to participate in future nuclear talks three-party, etc.
I don't think that it's necessary for China to participate, but there is a huge necessity for that.
But it seems that the dynamic in the current sort of agreements on the nuclear arsenals between the two parties that have the biggest arsenals and actually the most responsible for preventing nuclear proliferation, is quite in the bad shape.
And that also means that China can actually play a stabilizing role if it so wishes.
But is it necessary?
Probably not.
Can it play a positive role?
I think yes, provided that there is also, of course, goodwill coming both from the United States and from Russia.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Dr Kamal Makili-Aliyev, Associate Professor with the School of Global Studies University of Gothenburg.
Coming up, Japan's ruling LDP leadership race has kicked off with five contenders.
You are listening to World Today.
Stay tuned.
Hello, I am Dr Digby James Ren, a political analyst and international relations scholar specializing in China area studies.
World Today offers unmatched in-depth perspectives on China's politics economics business, technology and society.
World Today's team of reporters and contributors provides valuable information from all of the world's major economies.
I hope you can join me on World Today for the very best insights and news from China, on China, and help to build a better understanding of China's role in the world today.
You are back with World Today.
I'm Ding Hen in Beijing.
Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party has launched its leadership election campaign.
Five candidates have registered their bids.
The contenders are the current Agricultural Minister, two former Economic and Security Ministers, a Chief Cabinet Secretary and a former LDP Secretary-General.
All of them ran in last year's election.
So for more.
Joining us now on the line is Dr Rong Ying Chair, Professor at the School of International Studies, Sichuan University.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Thank you for having me.
So we understand these five candidates are calling themselves moderate conservatives, emphasizing their willingness to work with the opposition groups.
Why do you think they are sending such a message now?
Well, I think the tactics of messaging of these five candidates reflect the kind of dilemma facing all of them.
On the one hand, LDP being a conservative party, very much still determined by the big shots.
Most of them are quite conservative.
On the other hand, I think they all realize that in the minority sort of party or party coalition they would have to reach out to the opposition parties if any of them win the election and for the policy to formulate a policy or to rule or to govern the country in a proper way.
So I think this is just one of the dilemmas facing the Japanese politics.
In particular, I think, the LDP party, which I think is now celebrating, if I can say, the 70th anniversary after it was founded in 1955.
Also, why do you think these candidates largely focused on the economy and stricter measures on immigration at the party's joint kickoff event on Monday?
Well, these are the two issues that I think most of the voters not only, I think, the voters of the LDP, I mean who would decide would determine who would win the election, but also, in general, the general public, as we know that the The Japanese public has very much suffered from the rising costs.
The inflation issues are very much, I think, burning issues.
On the other hand, the second issue, these so-called immigration issues, is even more, I think, sort of complex in the sense.
On the one hand I think Japan is suffering the demographic problems, Asian populations, so there's no way except open up to immigration so that they will help them for the society as a whole.
On the other hand, I think the flooding or opening up of the immigration to Japan has raised the concerns and anxieties of Japanese public, which I think to some extent gave the rise the surprise rising of ultra-conservative right-wing party, the so-called San Sato, which I think it just surprisingly win 15 seats in the July's upper house elections.
So these are the two issues I think very much were determined, or very much, I think, an issues concerns the, the voters within the party and and outside and for the general public.
Now we understand, a candidate who will secure the majority will become the party leader of ldp and if no one, if nobody wins a majority, there will be a runoff between the top two candidates in the first round.
In your observation, is there anyone who could potentially secure a majority in the first round?
It's very difficult to say at this moment, even though I think the two sort of candidates, Shinjiro Koizumi and Sasano Takeichi, look like they are the two forerunners.
And for Sanae Takeichi, we know she actually in last year's election she was The first, even though she did not pass the majority.
But all in all, I think if neither of them or neither of the five candidates were able to reach the half I mean the 50 of the majority, then they will have to go round off.
And that would be going to be very interesting because the rules of the round off the second round is going to be different from the first one.
Now, this upcoming vote on October 4th is actually an intra-party event.
It is limited to 295 LDP parliamentarians and nearly 1 million grassroots party members.
Altogether, they represent just less than 1% of Japan's eligible voters.
Do you think a party leader elected in this way can win the hearts of the general public?
Yeah, that's a great question.
I think, of course, for this election, it's an LDP's election for president.
So, as the rule goes, it would be the party members and, in particular, I think, the members of the Diet of the party, going to decide.
But, as you rightly said, that even the LDP party members, which used to, I think a pretty large number, are decreasing.
It is reported that the most The latest number of the party members of the LDP who are eligible to take part in this voting has been decreased of over 140000.
And that, of course, reflects a kind of lack of interest of that.
Even the general elections for Japan, I think the voting rate has been very low.
That is, I think, again, a dilemma or a kind of contradiction.
On the one hand, the general public are very much unhappy about the Japanese parties, and the LDP in particular.
On the other hand, I think the people simply lost interest and even the LDP party members.
I think all I can say is that the Japanese democracy, even though has been quite sort of got a name of a stable, one of the most stable democracy, has big problems, if I can say.
Yeah.
So the final question before we let you go.
The LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito have lost their majority in either house of the Japanese parliament.
That's of course true.
But, on the other hand, do you think the opposition will be able to prevent whoever will become the next LDP leader from becoming the next Japanese prime minister?
Well, I think that this is.
According to the system, anyone who wins the election of the LDP is going to be, I mean, the president and, by extension, going to the prime minister.
But this time, as you rightly said, the LDP and its coalition, the Komeito.
They are the minority government.
So, which means that, even though he or she becomes the prime minister, his governance, capability to govern, is going to be very much related or very much rely upon the support or good willingness of the opposition parties.
So this is something very much a problem, a new problem, an even bigger problem facing whoever wins the election.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Dr. Rong Ying, joining us from Sichuan University.
That's all the time for this edition of World Today.
To listen to this episode again or to catch up on our previous episodes, download our podcast by searching World Today.
I'm Dinghan in Beijing.
Thank you so much for listening.
Bye for now.
