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I'm Ding Han in Beijing.
Coming up, the longest spring festival holiday has boosted travel and consumption in China.
China puts 20 Japanese companies on export control lists with an aim to curb Japan's remilitarization and nuclear ambitions.
The European Union has failed to adopt additional sanctions on Moscow and a key loan for Kyiv as the war in Ukraine marks its fourth anniversary.
And Canada plans to assist Cuba while Washington squeezes the island country.
To listen to this episode again or to catch up on our previous episodes.
You can download our podcast by searching World Today.
First up, China's Spring Festival holiday has delivered striking economic signals.
During the nine-day holiday, China's railways handled 121 million passenger trips, border authorities processed nearly 178 million cross-border journeys, and the Spring Festival box office surged to 57 billion yuan, with total movie attendance reaching 120 million.
What does the surge tell us about the strength and the transformation of China's economy?
Are we witnessing a deeper structural shift towards experience-driven and service-led consumption here in China?
For more.
My colleague Zhao Yang spoke with Dr Ying Liang, professor of economics with Willamette University.
So Yan, thank you very much for joining us.
Spring Festival is one of the most important barometers of household spending in China.
So what do this year's consumption numbers tell us about the state of Chinese consumer?
Well, I think that this time the night day holiday really has created a spur on a surge in tourism and also consumer spending, with multiple key indicators actually reaching historic highs.
So I think this number shows that there is a transformation in how Chinese consumers spend.
So we can talk about specific new features, for example, the family-based travel and a lot of consumption of cultural products and so on.
So there has been, you know, new trends in the Chinese consumer spending, but also, I think there are also deeper sort of signals about how the spending signal for the broader economy, in the sense that we're seeing a lot more tech assisted purchasing right and also travel.
So I think it just shows a very good sort of ecosystem where the technology is transforming both in terms of the supply side how goods and services are being supplied but also on the consumption side, which is using AI and other intelligent tools that really help to allow consumers to spend in a way That would increase their satisfaction but also help them to expand their consumption that they previously may not even think about or know.
So I think you know this is a major, I think, signal right to show how spending is integrated into the broader economy.
And we've seen the Spring Festival box office is quite strong.
During the holiday, the box office reached the 57 billion yuan and China has become the global box office champion so far this year.
So how do you explain that?
Yeah, so I think if we look at the box office, including the pre-sales, actually has surpassed 7 billion as of past Saturday.
So now it actually overtakes the North America to become the world's top grossing freedom market.
I think that again clearly shows that you know.
When it comes to service consumption, it's very strong in China.
So on the one hand, you have all these great production of films that really resonate with the audience, right?
So you have a variety of movies that some of them are really sort of a lot of actions, others a lot of suspense, or some are very family friendly with animations and other features.
So I think, on the production side, I think the Chinese filmmakers are really making a lot of progress to make really high quality films.
And then on the demand side, again, this reflects the kinds of service consumption, right?
That the strong boss office simply means that there is a growing appetite for experience driven consumption right.
That means you bring the family in to experience the movies, and There's a lot of to talk about afterwards.
So I think that there has been this appreciation, increasing appetite for experience driven consumption.
And so the same with, you know, the tourism.
I think that shows a lot of family based tourism, a lot of cultural oriented and all the immersive kind of tourism.
So instead of. you know, just go to a place and take pictures or buy products.
Now people are really enjoying, you know, the specific culture, specific landscape in these various tourist place.
And so I think that again speak to the fact that the consumers these days in China they're really developing the kind of preference for experience-related, emotional-supported kinds of consumption.
And let's also talk about traveling to China.
Inbound tourism has picked up thanks to the expanded visa-free policies from China.
And during the spring holiday season, China attracted visitors from more than 160 countries and regions.
So to what extent do you think this reflects the growing international interest when it comes to China's consumer and services market?
Right.
So I think, like you said, there are a number of factors that really create a kind of surge in inbound travel.
So for one is yes, these visa free policies that are now extended to over 45 countries.
It does help to provide a lot of convenience for people to come to visit China.
And second is I think that there has been really a lot of great promotion to sort of shopping in China or come to China to experience this very unique UNESCO cultural heritage.
The Spring Festival celebration.
And many localities also have their own kind of cultural events.
That really helped to attract a lot of visitors.
In fact, the foreign visitors have covered over 300 cities in China.
So they're not just concentrated in the big cities like Beijing Shanghai, but they're also going to various middle-sized or small cities, again because of the very unique cultures and events that these localities provide.
And so I think the inbound tourism, the daily entry, has gone up by over 10 compared to the same time last year.
And the visits to second tier city or below has gone up by 12% the same period of last year.
So again, as you see that you know there's a lot more visitors, but also into different places in China.
And also with the inbound tourism.
There's also a lot of consumption right, a lot of spending by these tourists, partly because they're also very generous, you know tax refund policies.
Now there are over 13000 tax refunded sort of shopping places for visitors, and they could also utilize the tax refund to save up to 20 I believe 2400 yuan per day.
So when you look at, for example, in the capital city in China, in Beijing, They have processed over 7000 tax refund applications with the total amount of 125 million yuan, and that is over four times increase and 43 increase respectively compared to last year.
So again, I think that we're seeing a booming sort of into inbound tourism partly, you know, due to the visa free, partly due to the great promotion of China as a tourism destination and partly due to tax refund policies and also partly due to, you know, those varieties of activities that the localities have put forth.
So that really generates a great momentum to attract foreign visitors as well as increase tourism spending.
And this year Ant Group reported that Alipay's AI Pay surpassed 100 million users during the holiday.
So, Yan, how do you view that?
Does it mean AI models are no longer just the chatbots but everyday helpers?
Yeah, absolutely.
I think that is a new unique feature this year, that you're right that there's a lot of technology driven and assisted the kinds of consumption
And we're not talking about just a chat box on the e-commerce platforms.
But really you also have, you know, the AI assistance that help to book tickets, that help to provide, you know, recommendations for tourism attractions and provide all kinds of guidance.
So the kinds of AI general generated travel order has gone up, actually by 800 percent, according to China's travel agency Fleabee.
So again, they show that there's a lot of these travel bookings are done or assisted by AI.
And so, you know, 800% increase compared to the pre-holiday levels.
So again we're seeing.
You know, AI is no longer just a chatbot that help you to compare products online or, to you know, to help with, just you know, again buying online, but really helping with travel trips and so on and so forth.
So I think you know again, from itinerary planning to ticket booking, to follow-up services, I think AI has really helped to lower the barriers for independent travel.
And so that I think is a unique feature, right?
Because I know that we already use a lot of AI bots when it comes to, you know, buying online.
JD.com or buying on Taobao.
But now I think it's a step forward when you use AI to also help with travel plans and so on and so forth.
So I think that definitely helped to expand the possibilities of consumption and provide a lot more convenience for consumers.
Yan Liang, professor of economics at Willamette University, talking with my colleague Zhao Yang.
Coming up.
China puts 20 Japanese companies on export control lists, with an aim to curb Japan's remilitarization and nuclear ambitions.
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Welcome, I am Chuchu Zhang.
Deputy Director at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University.
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China has announced export control measures against 20 Japanese entities involved in boosting Japan's military capabilities.
Among the entities listed are multiple subsidiaries of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
China's Ministry of Commerce says the decision aims to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international nonproliferation obligations.
Under the new measures, Chinese exporters are prohibited from supplying dual-use items to the listed entities.
In the meantime, overseas organizations or individuals are also prohibited from transferring or providing dual-use items originating from China to these listed companies.
So for more.
Joining us now on the line is Dr Liu Kuangyu from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Hello, this is Liu Kuangyu.
So are China's measures we are talking about here legitimate or reasonable or legal?
Yes, I think, yes, fully legitimate, reasonable and legal.
We know that China's export control measures this time or before this time, they're all strictly here to boast international legal frameworks and domestic legislation.
For example, based on that Article 12 of the export control law of the PRC and also the UN Security Council Resolution 1540, which abandon the export for nuclear proliferation.
So we, according to those international law and domestic law, we see why China is fully justified in imposing targeted restrictions on entities involved in enhancing, especially in the illegal military capabilities and also nuclear proliferation.
And we see the 20 listed Japanese entities, including the IHI Corporation and MHI, they're all engaged in Japan's 2025 defense white paper, designated projects such as missile guidance systems and also high-precision alloy deployment like that.
And also we can see similar measures.
They were implemented by the U.S., by the EU against Russia, against Iran.
So they, they are establishing precedent for such actions.
So i think china's formal statements uh, by our government, by the ministry of of the commerce, have stated very clearly our actions are complies with the wto trade facilitation agreement And also this is according to what Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi has said before It implies Japan's so-called military intervention on a so-called Taiwan crisis And also it is focusing on Takaichi's plan to remilitarize Japan, her way to secure so-called Japanese security by enhancing Japan's military complex.
So everything has a reason, yes, has a target.
Okay.
So do you think China's measures will affect the normal economic and trade exchanges between China and Japan, so to speak?
I don't think so, because overall we can see the entities listed on these export control measures are primarily concentrated on sectors such as shipbuilding, air engine manufacturing and also heavy machinery in Japan.
Meanwhile, the watch list entities include multiple companies majorly engaged in semiconductor-related activities.
So these are very concentrated, very restricted, strictly focused areas.
We see, although this represents the most strict export controls China has ever imposed on Japan, but these measures are unlikely to disrupt, like you said, normal trade and exchanges between the two countries.
We see, on one hand, the vast majority of the bilateral exchanges still remain civilian in nature and fall outside of the scope of restrictions.
And on the other side, the number of targeted entities remain relatively limited.
We see that China has previously established regulations governing dual-use items under the export control law.
But now, this time, the current move I think it is trying to constitute a target sanctions precisely against a small number of specific entities, aimed at curbing Japan's remedialization and nuclear weapon ambitions.
So this is not against civil exchanges and also trade.
So Mitsubishi played a shameful role in terms of Japan's wartime history during the Second World War and around that time period.
No one really needs a reminder about its wartime use of Chinese and Korean forced labor.
Now fast forward to the present day.
Why do you think a few subsidiaries of Mitsubishi deserve our special attention, deserve our special public scrutiny for their possible roles in terms of advancing Japan's re-militarization and beyond?
Yes, Mr. Bushi or MHI has always been a powerhouse of Japan's military industry.
We can read the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute that read that report on the so-called top 100 arms producing and military service companies year and year.
The MHI, Mitsubishi and Kawasaki and also those entities on this list.
They're all on the top 100 military companies globally.
So that is why we focused on them.
And also this trend reflects Japan's gradual relaxation of these arms export policies, which signaling a concerning progressive shift towards broader military engagement.
So at this heart of this dynamic, post-war titans, industrial titans, first of them is Mitsubishi.
We see, among the 20 entities now listed on the export control measures, the Mitsubishi subsidiary companies.
They occupy the most prominent positions, five of them targeted.
We see, for example, Mitsubishi Air Engines Division.
They serve as Japan's core enterprise for aviation propulsion systems and also responsible for the maintenance and sustainment of power plants for Japan's air self-defense force fighter jets.
And also we see Mitsubishi's Marine Machinery Division.
They focus on supplying marine equipment and systems, including large-scale engines and propulsion systems for Japan's naval and commercial vessels.
And also we see Mitsubishi's engine and uh turbocharger co-limited.
They specialize in the manufacturing high performance engines and also the turbo chargers, with certain products integrated into missile systems and operated by japan's ground self-defense force and so on.
So from these examples these examples, we can say that mitsubishi constitutes like a fundamental or or a core framework, a part of Japan's today's self-defense capabilities and their military industry system.
Okay.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takeuchi's LDP party gained a victory in parliamentary elections earlier this month which, in theory, will allow her to double down on, I would say, a very significant conservative shift in terms of, in particular, in terms of Japan's security policies and on other issues as well.
So how much concern should we have for a scenario like that?
Yes, we should always be, or we can never be, vigilant enough against Japan and Japan's recent moves, because I don't think the world has fully understand what's happening in Japan.
Because actually Japan has been experiencing a sort of identity shift during the past uh 70 years, the past uh half a century, because uh, they have turned themselves into a loser and the invader of the global war, now uh trying to transit, uh transfer themselves uh to being like a country of civilization, of prosperity, of soft influences and so on.
People tend to forget what Japanese has done 70 years ago and what has not changed during the past 70 years.
And one thing of them is so-called militarization.
And in the Chinese media category, with characters as the so-called new type of militarism, because they don't use this rhetoric as serving for the emperor or serving for the so-called the Commonwealth of East Asia, but now they use the words like order, like peace like containing China and so on and also interfering in the Taiwan question they use all new phrases to camouflage Japan's disguise to actually Trying to go back to the fascist another fascist nation the Japanese Instinct that Japanese has never changed and so we can see after the LDP party secured a majority in the parliament and also Japan is trying to boost their defense budget and also Takahashi has launched a nuclear deterrence capability capabilities revising programs and so on we can see Japan is moving a very towards a very dangerous direction and without without a serious restrictions, especially domestically and internationally.
So that's why China's role and actions are important, because we don't see too much other effort to constrain Japan's impulse to go back on the old track.
Yeah, indeed.
If we think about the current tension between China and Japan.
Of course, they were triggered by comments by Prime Minister Sanae Takeuchi who, in November, implies that Japan could militarily intervene if there is a contingency, if there is a crisis over the Taiwan question.
To Chinese or to the government here in Beijing, the Taiwan question is an absolute red line.
And hopefully things will calm down very soon.
And hopefully Japan can learn a very important lesson from this episode.
But thank you very much for joining us.
Dr. Liu Kuangyu joining us from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
You're listening to World Today.
I'm Dinghan in Beijing.
To listen to this episode again or to catch up on our previous episodes.
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We'll be back after a short break.
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New Zealand's Prime Minister says his country remains committed to multilateralism and free trade, even as the global economic order undergoes profound changes.
In an interview with my colleague, Tian Wei, Christopher Luxon called for reforms to the World Trade Organization and a stronger cooperation through platforms such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum, amid growing global uncertainty.
Let's take a listen.
This region Asia-Pacific, particularly with APEC, has been celebrating free trade and multilateralism for more than 35 years.
But now, of course, we have a lot of headwinds.
So I want to have a reality check with you, Mr Prime Minister, about what you think is the stage where we are.
And as policymakers, what should be the right step?
Actions, by the way.
Yeah, well, look, I think there's a few things going on.
There's no doubt about it.
The rules-based system is being upended and it's a lot more contested, a lot more fragmented and a lot more challenging environment out there in the global economy.
I think there's three shifts going on.
The first is actually a shift from rules to power, and we're seeing that with a lot of conflict that's existing in the world.
I think the second big thing is the connectivity between prosperity and security.
The two are inextricably linked.
We've seen that with a number of conflicts around the world that actually have caused huge economic pain and suffering for citizens, and we can't have prosperity without security and stability.
And the third thing I'd say is there's been a shift, I think, from we had very efficient global supply chains to now building much more national resilience and national industrial policy and protectionism.
And so those are the three shifts that I observe, and that's a change in the environment.
But within all of that, there are still tremendous amounts of opportunity, and it's up for each individual country to work out how it can compete and how it can win.
For us in New Zealand.
We're a small country and we have felt that actually getting rid of tariffs and subsidies in the 1980s, the 1990s has meant that our businesses are very fit, they're very lean, they're very competitive and they go out in the world and they actually are world class and they compete very well.
And for us, that is the right trade policy that we believe that we can work with.
Mr. Prime Minister, you mentioned actually in a very concise answer a lot of points.
Tariff, for example, where are you stand?
Yeah, look, I mean, it's what I said before.
New Zealand is a small trading nation where one in four of our jobs are tied to international trade has just believed that for us, the best model is to have very lean efficient successful, competitive businesses.
And so we have built that over the last 20, 30 years.
So our businesses can go out in the world, compete from New Zealand with the best in the world and do very well.
And so for us, I appreciate, say, the U.S. has a different trade policy.
Every country is acting in its national interests.
But for us, we believe very strongly in that rules-based system, the free flow of trades and goods.
So we will continue to make that case in forums like APEC and ASEAN, where I've just come from because we need to remake the case for the rules-based system.
Yes, the system needs some upgrading.
The WTO needs reforms, all of those good things.
But I think there's still a huge opportunity for us to continue to build out.
And the other thing that we've been doing is that we've obviously been at the heart of a lot of those free trade agreements in the world.
And our exporters have got very, very good and very agile at moving their product from one market to another market with great speed and great flexibility.
So yes, it's very choppy waters, but actually we know where we want to go to as a country and it's about our relative competitiveness.
You mentioned a lot of balancing actually, in your previous answer.
Whether it's cooperation or competition, whether it is technology, where do we stand?
So I want to ask a little bit of balancing.
For example, this region holds some of the largest economies in the world the number one and number two and number three, and the list goes on.
Meanwhile, you also have a diversity of economies.
So how would you take your delicate balance while you're speaking here, when you're meeting all your counterparts and, geopolitically speaking for New Zealand, how to stand your way?
Well, I think you know, there's 195 countries in the world, 8 billion people, and each country has its own independent foreign policy.
It plots its own course as to what it's trying to do and acts in its own national interests.
Having said all of that, we are big believers of being externally focused and building relationships and rapport with other countries as well.
And so I'm a big believer as it is in your personal relationships, The same it is in our foreign relationships that actually, if we have a relationship with each other that can be longstanding good relationships, you can cooperate where you can and you do as much cooperation as you possibly can.
But you also acknowledge that you have differences and it's okay to talk about those differences in your bilateral meetings and discussions and forums like this.
Because actually, if you have high trust and you have a good relationship, you have real conversations about the difficulties or the differences that you have.
And then you still find a way forward to say well, let's cooperate where we can, differ where we must, and work together with like-minded countries.
As a result,
Where do you stand when it comes to artificial intelligence?
Because policy really matters.
Yeah, look, I think there is much, much more opportunity than there is downside risk with AI.
I know there's a lot of conversation around.
For all our economies and particularly for a country like New Zealand.
There is just so much more upside through adoption of technology AI quantum, a whole bunch of the technologies that are there.
For us, I think, and that's up for you as the business leaders, to think about how you're going to keep adopting technology to transform your business models, to improve your margin, build great businesses commercially culturally, customer-wise.
But for us as government leaders.
I also think there is a real impatience from the public around the world and frustration from around the world that governments are not delivering.
They're not delivering outcomes that actually improve my daily life.
And so I think for us running large public services, there's a huge opportunity to transform government through AI.
And it's a conversation we're starting in New Zealand as we digitise government because, you know, we want to have large service organisations that are customer focused, that are technology enabled and actually are serving the people that they serve.
And I think in government, there's often a loss of who's the customer.
And, of course, it's the public of your country that actually want those services being consumed in a really good way.
Businesses though, are concerned about the danger whether there's going to be different standards, two different or three different systems that they have to deal with.
What do you make of that?
Well, that's again where forums like this and the work of the business leaders of APAC is to actually put the solutions forward.
Don't just come forward with the problems.
Come forward with the solution. because you're the closest to it.
And often our public servants and our advisors and our government folk aren't.
So that's where I think forums like this are really helpful.
And the ABAC leaders groups.
That's a task that they should be really thinking very deeply about.
What would be the right regulatory settings that we could get as many countries signed up for as possible?
And that's what I mean by the innovation that can come out of forums like APEC.
If we take a challenge like that, The thing about short-term and long-term that really matters for businesses.
So there have been concerns about short-termism, as some say, in policies and in politics.
Mr Prime Minister, your take on that, and how do you think you can avoid that with your administration?
Yeah look, I think you've got to keep an eye on both those things the macro arc of where you're trying to drive your country to.
In New Zealand, we're very clear we're going to build the best small country on earth, period.
But you have to keep an eye on the long-term regulatory settings because I agree with you.
I think for business, what you need is certainty clarity consistency, so that you can make that investment.
Consumers want that so they can actually spend.
That was my colleague Tian Wei speaking with New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.
Coming up.
The EU fails to adopt additional sanctions on Moscow and a key loan for Kiev as the war in Ukraine marks its fourth anniversary.
This is World Today, we'll be back.
You're listening to World Today, I'm Ding Hen in Beijing.
Foreign ministers of the European Union member states have failed to reach agreement on a new package of sanctions on Russia.
Instead, the bloc has imposed the sanctions on a new group of eight Russian individuals on human rights grounds.
It came after Hungary vetoed those planned additional sanctions on Moscow and a crucial loan for Kyiv ahead of the fourth anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
So for more joining us now on the line is Dr Zhang Xin, Deputy Director of the Center for Russian Studies, East China Normal University.
So thank you very much for joining us today, Dr. Zhang Xin.
Hungary vetoed those planned additional sanctions on Russia, saying that Kiev is delaying restarting the flow of Russian oil via a Soviet-era pipeline that was somehow damaged a month ago.
This pipeline still carries Russian oil over Ukrainian territory to Hungary and Slovakia.
What do you make of Hungary's veto here?
For one.
I think it shows the maybe unexpected high level of economic interdependence between Russia, Ukraine and the parts of Central Eastern Europe.
Even after four years of military conflict rounds and rounds of sanctions against Russia, that kind of economic interdependence in certain economic sectors are still in place, as we see through this Druzhba friendship pipeline.
It's a miracle to see, after four years of uh war between russia and ukraine, um russian laws still flow through this uh pipeline uh across ukraine territory and then to uh europe, especially central eastern europe.
This is one.
Second is it shows also uh hungary's um increasingly important role in facilitating a joint single voice by EU.
Hungary has played the kind of decisive role by using its veto power against some of the decisions, especially regarding regarding the Russian-Ukraine conflict.
At this time.
It shows that it still has this interest and it has the willingness to utilize this veto power.
And the last point is that this is also a vivid example to show structurally, from the perspective of the EU, how much challenge uh eu is having in the context of russian ukraine conflict to have a joint, unified voices.
So there's probably uh, after hungary's veto, this time there might be some new push within you to modify its anonymity rules of decision making to avoid one or two member states can play the role of blocking the collective action of the whole EU.
So what the EU has failed to approve here includes a US$106 billion loan for Ukraine.
How crucial is the loan for Kyiv?
It's a quite important source of financial support from the EU to Ukraine, especially in the context of the starting of the fifth year of the military conflict.
Ukraine's domestic economy is under quite severe strain and the external financial support, primarily from the US and the EU, are the major source of external support.
The EU has been struggling to find a new way to continue its financial support to Ukraine.
Recently it has started using the Russian frozen assets in Europe as the collateral or using the interest of that Russian frozen assets in different ways.
Try to use that to support Ukraine.
But I think the direct financial support from the EU's own budget is still the more decisive source of potential support aid to Ukraine.
So this time, The failure of approving this new US106 billion loan for Ukraine is indeed a big blow to the EU's continued support for Ukraine.
So do you think the EU's failure here, in terms of approving this package of sanctions and loans, is a sign that somehow the bloc has reached its limit, has reached its own ceiling in terms of providing support to Ukraine and exerting economic pressure against Russia?
Why or why not?
Yeah, I wouldn't say so.
In terms of the specific means or approach of providing support to Russia.
I think the format of providing loans to Ukraine has met some heavy resistance within the EU.
But there are other means and approaches of providing loans, financial or fiscal support to Ukraine which, as I just explained early on that the EU has managed to found these new ways, for example, to use the Russian frozen assets as collateral or using potentially the interest from Ukraine Russian frozen assets.
Right, those are the other alternative options.
These options heavily debated, but has been taken and has moved on as the alternative way of aid to Ukraine from you and there are actually.
There are other alternative options, so I wouldn't say it has completely hit the ceiling up And also the pressure on Russian economy can also take multiple formats.
It hasn't been very effective.
Sanctions on individuals are of very limited impact on Russian economy.
But the holding of Russian overseas assets and also recently, actions against these ships on public sea.
These shadow fleets so-called shadow fleets are actually having a visible impact on Russia's economic policy and also its immediate term economic prospects for Russian domestic economy.
So I think there are multiple ways of exerting pressure, continue exerting pressure on Russian economy.
So, as the Russian-Ukraine conflict marks its fourth anniversary, some say its outlook remains desperately grim.
What is your take?
It obviously will still take a lot of efforts, political willingness to found a way of either complete political settlement or at least a ceasefire.
But I wouldn't say the prospects are completely grim.
I think, relative to the situation all through 2023, 2024 and most part of 2025, I think late 2025 and early 2026 can be seen as the time that we are closest to a possible political settlement.
Relative to 23, all the way to 25.
I think US quite active mediation using combination of sticks and carrots.
I do see that can play some role.
And also on both sides.
Ukraine and Russia are both feeling quite strong strengths on continuing this military conflict.
On the Ukrainian side, I think personnel is becoming a crucial constraint more and more.
And, on the Russian side, its domestic economy wouldn't be as good as 2023 and 2024 especially.
The negative consequences of running a war economy has already been felt by regular Russian citizens more and more since late 2025.
So, given those conditions, I think there are indeed some incentives to seek political settlement or at least a partial ceasefire on both sides.
Well, the challenge is, of course, to look for the specific arrangement that both sides, after heated negotiation, will be willing to take.
One more quick piece of evidence is in the very recent negotiation in Geneva, On top of the official negotiation between the two teams from Ukraine, Russia and the United States, there was an interesting episode.
The head of the Russian delegation Medinsky, actually came back to have an informal sort of secret meeting with the Ukrainian delegation, out of anybody's expectation.
So I would see there might be some outcome from those informal meetings. unplanned informal meeting.
We will wait a few more days to see whether there's something more concrete, politically palatable for both sides, coming out of this informal meeting.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Dr. Zhang Xin, Deputy Director with the Center for Russian Studies, East China Normal University.
Coming up, Canada says it plans to assist Cuba while Washington squeezes the island country.
This is World Today, stay tuned.
Welcome.
I'm Elav Elad, economics professor and member of the Data Science and AI Center at New York University, Shanghai.
On the World Today podcast, You are listening to World Today.
I'm Ding Hen in Beijing.
Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand says his country plans to provide assistance to Cuba.
Cuba is grappling with fuel shortages, as the United States is moving to choke off the country's oil supplies.
Washington has escalated a pressure campaign against the island country in recent weeks.
The UN has warned that if Cuba's energy needs are not met, it might cause a humanitarian crisis.
So for more.
Joining us now on the line is Dr Jiang Shi Xue, distinguished professor from College of International Relations, Sichuan International Studies University.
Thank you very much for joining us, Professor Jiang.
Okay, thank you.
So, first of all, why do you think the Trump administration is escalating a pressure campaign against Cuba now?
You know, since the Cuban revolution In 1959, the US has been targeting against Cuba for so many years because the US believes that Cuba is its enemy.
So the US has been trying all its best to blockade Cuba.
And, as far as I know, the blockade against Cuba could be said as the longest sanction by a big power towards a small power or towards a small country in human history.
So let's hope that the US will change It's a foreign policy, but sadly I don't believe it will happen in the near future.
Okay.
So, regionally speaking, Venezuela is an ally of Cuba.
So how do you think this forcible US seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in early January might have affected the kind of aid and assistance and other kinds of support that Cuba gains from Venezuela?
Since the January 4th kidnapping of President Maduro, the US has put great pressure on Venezuela, saying that Venezuela cannot support oil to Cuba.
But Cuba is a country without any oil reserves, so without external support in the energy sector, Cuba's economy will suffer and and also cuban people's life will be damaged.
So the us just wants to take up this opportunity to uh to make some kind of regime changes or want to see that cuba will will leave the socialist road.
But i don't believe that the us dream will come true.
Okay,
So then, in the case of Canada, which is the main talking point we're discussing today, why do you think Ottawa has made it clear that it plans to provide assistance to Cuba, which is clearly at odds with the policy on the part of Washington?
You know, as I mentioned just now, the U.S. policy towards Cuba is very, very hostile.
And, on the other hand, Canada's policy towards Cuba.
Well, I would like to use this word benign or, in a certain extent, friendly.
So because of this kind of economic hardships imposed by the US over the past six or seven decades.
So Canada wants to offer a certain kind of help in the energy sector.
So I believe that Canada's help for Cuba will be greatly appreciated by Cuban people, by the people all over the world living in peace.
Under President Donald Trump.
We know Washington and Ottawa have already had tensions over issues like trade tariffs.
President Donald Trump's rhetoric about taking control of Greenland.
Ottawa's efforts to warm ties with China, as well as Prime Minister Mark Carney's remark, which was made at January's Davos Forum in Switzerland, that middle powers like Canada should act together to avoid being victimized by the hegemony of the United States.
With all those recent developments in mind, do you think Canada's stance on supporting Cuba or providing assistance to Cuba is creating yet another major rift in the relationship between the US and Canada?
Yes, you're right.
There are lots of problems between the US and Canada.
And the US also wants to take Canada as one of its states, the so-called fifth first state of the US.
And also Trump wants to call the Canadian prime minister as a governor.
So it's quite funny.
But I don't believe that Canada will listen to the US.
So, despite the anger from the us, canada wants to offer a certain kind of help in the energy sector and other kinds of economic assistance.
So i believe that canada's relationship with cuba will be further improved and the people in latin america and in other parts of the world will welcome the action taken by Canada to offer a kind of assistance.
And also Russia as well as China are offering a certain kind of help for Cuba.
So let's hope that Cuba will overcome the current hardship, continue to walk on the road of socialism.
So, by the way, when we talk about Canada, the Canadian federal government's current stance on supporting Cuba or providing assistance to Cuba what do you think this tells us about Prime Minister Mark Carney's ideology, or the ideologies that underpins his foreign policy thinking?
Well, I don't believe Canadians' help for Cuba is based on the so-called ideology.
You know, Cuba is a socialist country, and Canada is a capitalist country.
And on this matter, I don't believe that ideology plays an important role.
Because I think I want to say that justice, Justice plays an important role.
The UN has been adopting resolutions for so many times I think more than 36 or 37 times calling on the us to stop its blockade against the cuba.
You know every nation must have its right to determine the road of its future direction.
So the us should respect the choice of cuban people.
So let's hope that in the near future the US will change its foreign policy.
But, sadly speaking, once again, I don't see that the US will change its foreign policy towards Cuba in the near future.
Very, very briefly, in about 30 seconds can Cuba survive President Donald Trump's pressure campaign?
Well, it's really hard to say until now, but I think everybody now in the world is focusing on how Cuba will deal with its shortages of energy.
But I believe that China will continue to offer a certain kind of help for Cuba.
So let's hope that Cuba will be successful this time again.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Jiang Shixue, a distinguished professor from the College of International Relations, Sichuan International Studies University.
That's all the time for this edition of World Today.
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I'm Dinghan in Beijing.
Thank you so much for listening.
Bye for now.
