Hey there, Smarty Pants.
Is it chilly outside?
It's freezing out here!
Are you stuck indoors?
Or are you a lucky Smarty Pants enjoying a warm day while the rest of us bundle up?
Well, no matter what, you probably would love to have more Who Smarted and less ads, right?
Yes!
Well, then I have great news.
It's time to heat up your brain with the Who Smarted winter warm-up sound.
That's amazing!
From...
Right now, through January 30th, we are giving you a massive 50 off an annual Who Smarted Plus subscription.
That's right.
It's normally $39.99, but you can grab a whole year of smarts for just $19.98.
Think about that.
For about 40 cents a week.
You get way less ads so you can enjoy all the episodes uninterrupted, so you can stay in the Smarty Zone and you get way more Who Smarted?
Not only do you get ad-free listening, but you're also going to get bonus subscriber-only episodes.
But you have to hurry.
This deal is melting faster than a snowman in a sauna.
It's only available directly through our website, so just head to whosmartedcom and click on Winter Warm-Up Sale.
Don't wait.
This offer disappears on January 30th.
Stay cool, stay warm, and stay smart.
Go to whosmartedcom right now and click winter warm-up sale to start getting all these benefits for around 40 cents a week, and you'll be directly supporting the show.
Now that's a smarty deal, and now it's time for who's smart.
Hey there, smarty pants.
So glad you could make it to the Who Smarted Family Picnic.
That's right.
We've got snacks, games, and later, Chet Nickerson is going to put on a puppet show.
Oh boy.
Thankfully, it's a perfect day for a picnic.
The sun is shining, there's a gentle breeze, and barely a cloud in the sky.
Well, except for that big gray one over there that I didn't notice until just now.
Yes, yes.
I see dark clouds in your future.
Uh, I'm sorry.
I don't remember inviting a spooky fortune teller to the picnic.
And you are?
Virga.
The name's Virga.
I am indeed a spooky fortune teller.
However, I am not here to predict your future.
I am here to predict the weather.
Ah!
Yes, I see dark clouds.
Many, many dark clouds.
And lots of rain.
Look!
Look at this candle!
Uh, yes, I see the candle that you're suddenly holding.
Stare closely at the flame.
See how it flickers and flares.
You know what that means, don't you?
Uh, you're talking too close to it?
No, it means rain and wind and a near future where you get very, very, very wet.
All right, I ain't buying any of this.
A candle flame does not predict the weather.
Oh, you underestimate the power of the candle.
What do you think, smarty pants?
Uh-huh, yeah.
The smarty pants don't trust this forecast either.
Instead, I'm going to check my phone's weather app from expert meteorologists.
Did someone say meteorologist?
This is Chet Nickerson reporter, meteorologist and amateur puppeteer here with the latest weather report.
It looks like it's going to be a beautiful day in Smartyville plenty of sunshine and only a 33 chance of precipitation, which in this case means rain.
Ah, now that's what I like to hear.
But Smarty Pants, do you know what 33% means?
Well, in case you don't, let's say I go to a pizza parlor and order three slices, two cheese and one with pineapples.
Which part is 33% of my order?
Well, since 33% is the same as one-third, then one slice is 33% of the order.
Now let's say the one pineapple slice represents rain.
Then the two cheese slices would represent no rain.
That's 66%.
I like those chances.
And by the way, I would only eat 66% of the pizza because I do not like pineapples on my pizza.
Oh, but you are mistaken.
Really?
You like pineapples on pizza?
No, not the pineapples.
The percent of rain.
Oh.
Um, Smarty Pants, what do you think?
I certainly don't think it'll... rain.
Ha!
I was right!
Ah, and so was Chet Nickerson, meteorologist.
Hold on.
How can you both be right?
Chet, you said it probably wouldn't rain here.
Not true.
Tell me, trusty, when you hear a weather forecast...
Do you know what it really means?
Uh, I guess not.
Smarty Pants, what does a weather forecast really mean?
And how do meteorologists predict the weather in the first place?
And how often are they right?
It's time for another whiff of science and history on... Who Smarted?
Who Smarted?
Who's smart?
Is it you?
Is it me?
Is it science?
Or history?
Listen up, everyone!
We make smarting lots of fun on Who's Smarted!
Well, Smarty Pants, it seems to be raining on our picnic, even though it was supposed to be sunny.
Hey now, I did say there was a chance of rain!
And I warned him first!
Right.
I'm here with two party crashers.
A weather fortune teller named Virga, who is apparently named after a type of rainstorm.
Yes, my parents knew I'd be a great forecaster someday.
And news sports and weatherman Chet Nickerson, who gave us a lousy forecast.
How dare you, trustee?
I think someone needs to learn a thing or two about meteorology.
Mm-hmm.
Right.
Don't people say it's the only profession where you can be wrong all the time and still get paid?
Oh, trusty, that is way off the mark.
It actually might surprise you, but meteorologists are right way more often than you think.
Oh, really?
Well, let's take a step back and start with a basic question.
What is a meteorologist?
And why is the study of weather called meteorology?
Smarty Pants, is it because A, forecasters once used meat to predict the weather?
B, ancient forecasters thought meteors turned into raindrops.
Or C, meteorology comes from a Greek word meaning a thing high up.
If you said C, you're right.
The Greek word meteoron refers to anything high in the sky, including thunderclouds and meteors.
Now, for bonus points, can you guess who made that term famous?
Is it A the Greek philosopher Aristotle, B the Greek ruler Alexander the Great or C the Greek mythological god Zeus?
If you said C, you picked the Greek god of weather, but the correct answer is A, Aristotle.
Oh, I love Aristotle.
He was so smart.
Aristotle was very smart, but his book on weather, considered the first of its kind, contains a lot of errors.
For example, it says the Earth is at the center of the universe with three moving layers above it.
Water, air, and fire.
Aristotle said the Earth exhaled vapors.
Sigh. to create weather.
Some ideas in Aristotle's book came from ancient Egyptians and Babylonians before him and reflected weather and climate beliefs of Aristotle's time, which was more than 2350 years ago.
So, Smarty Pants, about how long do you suppose it took for scientists to prove Aristotle wrong?
75 years?
500 years?
Or 2,000 years?
Unbelievably, the answer is 2,000 years.
That's incredible, but true.
Until the 1600s, Aristotle was the weather authority.
Of course, now we know the Earth is not the center of the solar system, never mind the universe, and there's no fire above the air.
But air motion does create weather.
The sun doesn't hit every part of the earth at the same time, so it heats air unevenly, making it move about with some assistance from the earth's rotation and the moon and sun's gravitational forces.
This movement mixes hot and cold air, along with vapor from oceans and other bodies of water, creating clouds and eventually rain, hail or snow.
With this knowledge of how weather forms, meteorologists like me can forecast it, though we still need a little help.
Yes, from hogs.
Oink.
Hogs?
Wait, how did hogs end up here?
We didn't invite hogs to the picnic.
Oh, I bring them everywhere I go.
If hogs make squeal, then it's going to be windy.
No, smarty pants, trust me, meteorologists do not rely on hogs.
What they do use to forecast the weather is what?
If you know, shout it out.
In the meantime, here's an audio hint.
That's right, they use a balloon.
Well, not just any balloon, but a special weather balloon.
In fact, at least twice a day, one of the world's leading weather organizations, America's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, sends balloons into the air from nearly 100 different locations.
Each balloon has sensors for air pressure, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction.
And here's something else they use.
Know that sound?
It's radar.
Yes!
Radar uses radio waves to detect nearby precipitation, cloud rotation, wind strength, wind direction and more.
And other electronic monitors, and even human volunteers send meteorologists information about current conditions in their area.
Since meteorologists know the direction the air is moving.
If they know it's raining in one location, they can predict where that rain will be one, two or several days later.
There's also a tool that lives in outer space.
Do you know what it is?
Did you say a satellite?
Satellites give meteorologists like me the big picture.
Some satellites capture images of the entire Earth every 30 seconds.
So you can see where all that weather is coming and going.
And then all this information from radar satellites, weather balloons, volunteers and more is brought together and analyzed using one of these.
A computer.
Ah, but not just any computer.
A supercomputer.
The supercomputers used by NOAA meteorologists are nearly six million times more powerful than the computer or tablet you have at home.
These supercomputers use big mathematical equations, weather history and analysis of current weather conditions and air movement to predict what will happen next.
But the supercomputer's forecast models are not always perfect.
Most times, they still need people with expertise, like me geologists, to tweak them and come up with a far more accurate forecast.
You know, like the one I gave today.
But you said there was only a 33% chance of rain, and now it's pouring!
You should have trusted the candle.
Actually, trustee, my forecast was right on the money.
How?
Smarty pants, I think we deserve some answers right after this quick break.
As the trusty narrator, I've taken the smarty pants on countless adventures.
I'll do anything for the fans.
But off mic, I prefer to keep my adventures in the safe space of my own backyard.
However, even a homebody like me can't avoid the unexpected chaos that comes with family life.
Take last week, for example.
My niece was staying with me when she came down with a nasty cold in the middle of the night.
I couldn't leave her alone to get medicine, and that's when I remembered DoorDash is there for you whatever you need, whenever you need it.
With a few taps on my phone, I had cough syrup and tissues delivered right to my door.
DoorDash saved the night, and my niece was back to her energetic self in no time.
Oh, and did I order a little ice cream for myself?
Yes, I did, and DoorDash brought it right to my door.
So while I may not be the biggest fan of real-life adventures, I'm grateful that DoorDash is always there to help me navigate life's little emergencies.
When life happens, get a little order delivered with DoorDash.
Order now.
Now back to Who Smarted?
Smarty Pants as I stand here in the pouring rain getting soaked, tell me, how much should you trust a weather forecast?
Take your typical five-day prediction.
How often do you think it's wrong?
Most of the time?
Half the time?
Once or twice?
According to NOAA, a five-day forecast today can accurately predict the weather 90% of the time.
That means it's wrong only once out of every 10 times.
And a seven-day forecast is 80% accurate.
Predicting weather farther out from that is more dicey.
If you're looking at a 10-day forecast, it's only accurate half the time, or 50%.
You know, people love to focus on our mistakes, but it's amazing how often we're right.
The atmosphere is huge and complex and any little thing can change the direction and power of a potential storm.
Sometimes it's just impossible to catch everything that's going on.
But we're getting much, much better at it.
And forecasts today are far more reliable than they were just 10 years ago.
Except today, when you were wrong.
Uh, was not.
Was too.
You said there was a 33% chance of rain, which basically means it probably won't rain.
But now it's pouring, and I'm drenched.
Aha!
See, that's where you're wrong.
Many things go into a weather forecast, including geography.
And that's where expert meteorologists like me are truly needed.
When you hear a percentage, it's not just the odds as to whether you'll get bad weather.
It's actually the result of a mathematical equation.
And that equation is this.
The area where the rain might happen.
Like your town times a meteorologist's confidence it will occur.
Sometimes, I'm only a little confident it'll rain over the entire area.
And in that case, you might be surprised by a storm.
And here I was, 100% sure it was going to rain, but only in one-third of Smartyville.
And one-third of 100% is 33%.
And I was right.
Unfortunately, the one-third of Smartyville where the storm hit includes this park where you decided to have your picnic and puppet show.
Should have had it across town near the dog run.
It's not raining there.
I'm not hosting a party at a dog run.
Yeah, bad idea.
But I knew it was going to rain last night.
How?
The moon.
It was pale with fuzzy edges.
What makes you think that's a sign of rain?
The Farmer's Almanac from 1837.
Ah, yes, that makes sense.
You see, smarty pants, back in the 1800s and earlier, people didn't have phones TV, the internet or radio to give them the latest forecast.
So they relied on superstitions and weather folklore, some of which appeared in books like The Farmer's Almanac.
These things seemed to work, like they did today, but there's not much science behind it.
For a more accurate forecast, stick with the meteorologists.
Exactly.
And look, it's clearing up.
Time for a puppet show right after I grab a quick bite.
What do we have to eat?
Pizza, except it's all soggy.
No, that's just from the pineapples.
Who wants some?
Oh, I'm good.
Same.
A big shout out to super smarty fan Ellie in Exeter, New Hampshire, who thinks the show is funny and even a little bit of a game.
I also hear that Jack Nickerson is your favorite.
Well, he's one of my favorites, too.
Keep on smarting, Ellie.
This episode Weather was written by Dave Breezy Beaudry and voiced by Olivia Light, Drizzle Davis, Adam Downpour Davis and Jerry Kolber.
Technical direction and sound design by Josh Hailstorm Hahn.
Who Smarted is recorded and mixed at the Relic Room Studios.
Our associate producer is Max Coldfront Kamaski.
The theme song is by Brian Snowflurry Suarez.
Lyrics written and performed by Adam Tex-Davis.
Who Smarted was created and produced by Adam Tex-Davis and Jerry Kolber.
This has been an Atomic Entertainment production.
