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China lead the world in wind power for 15 straight years was next for its clean energy push under the upcoming five-year plan.
Meanwhile, the country sees a steady growth in people's incomes in the first nine months.
What's driving the progress?
Zelensky reiterates Ukraine's readiness for a ceasefire, but with the US-Russia summit on hold, where does the Ukraine peace process stand?
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China's grain transformation continues to gather pace.
According to the latest data from the China Electricity Council, the country's installed wind power capacity has ranked first in the world for 15 consecutive years.
This reflects not only China's remarkable progress in renewable energy over the past decade, but also its steady steps toward the next stage, the 15th Five-Year Plan.
From achieving record levels of wind power capacity to exporting wind turbine technology to nearly 60 countries, China's commitment to a low-carbon future has become both a domestic strategy and a global contribution.
What does China's journey in grain transformation reveal about the path ahead?
To delve into this.
We are joined by Wang Xingsong, Associate Professor at Beijing Normal University School of Government.
Thanks for joining us, Professor.
Thank you.
Professor, let's start with the numbers.
China's installed wind power capacity has topped the world for 15 consecutive years.
What does this achievement tell us about the country's grain development path, not just during the 14th five-year plan, but over the past decades?
Yes, i think you're rightly pointing out that china's decarbonization and green transition of the economic model has not just happened during the 14th five-year plan.
In fact, it has been part of China's long term plan to transition the economy from the fossil fuel based energy driven economy to a more green energy driven economy.
So we have seen that decarbonization used to be a marginal part of the Chinese economy, mainly meant for environmental purposes protection but now it has become a strategic pillar of China's overall modernization process.
So obviously that demands a lot of policy consistency as well as a very much forward-looking vision.
We've seen not only rapid growth, but also stability an average annual increase of over 100 million kilowatts.
What has made this consistent expansion possible?
How important have industrial planning and policy support been in maintaining this pace?
I think a few things are very conducive to China's transition.
One is, like I said earlier, the policy continuity.
I think the Chinese energy strategies have been very much embedded in a multiple year plan, with financing vehicles available, as well as very persistent local implementation that make the targets achievable.
Number two I think the Chinese ever-growing industrial capacity is very conducive in terms of Building a very complete supply chain where China is not only able to produce the turbine blades, but also the towers, the grid equipments, as well as all the ultra high voltage transmission lines, etc etc.
And lastly, I think infrastructure is very important.
I talk about the transmission lines, but also the Chinese great lines and network are becoming ever more smart, meaning it has integrated many digital governance as well as smart management tools into the running of the system.
Professor Wennell, China has pledged to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
Looking ahead to the 15th five-year plan, green development will remain a key theme.
Then what are the new priorities or goals we should expect, especially in renewable energy and carbon neutrality?
Right.
I think so far China has expanded dramatically in the production of wind.
I think the next step to go, as China has already been doing, is to further integrate the wind power capacity into the existing grid network.
And in fact A lot of wind power is not being integrated into the grid network yet, for various reasons.
There's got to be more technologies that can store the unused wind power for future use.
At the same time, I think there's got to be more embedding of low carbon principles into the transportation industry and even urban design.
In other words, into every part of the Chinese economy.
And at the same time, I think.
The next step to go is to further expand and introduce the Chinese decarbonization techniques to the global market, especially to the global south, where the fossil fuel-based energy is not always available.
The data also shows that China's wind turbine makers have gone global, exporting to 57 countries and building factories overseas.
How does this reflect China's growing technological and industrial influence in the global green energy market?
Yes, I think.
Obviously, China has accumulated a very large amount of knowledge on the production of wind power, as well as other green energy.
So now, Chinese manufacturing of all these equipments has been very competitive globally in terms of quality, reliability as well as So now China has the capacity and also the willingness to assist the rest of the world in spreading the green energy policy at a low cost basis.
And in fact, China has been doing a lot on this.
I think there's going to be more such efforts in exporting the tools of green transformation worldwide as a way of achieving global green transition responsibly.
Professor, some observers say that China's wind and solar expansion is not just about energy, but also about economic resilience and technological breakthroughs.
How do you see the role of green industries in driving China's next phase of high-quality growth?
Yeah, I think if we just focus on the green energy transition, then we're missing the bigger picture where China is Very active in transitioning from growth-led economy to a quality-led development.
And by that we mean innovation-led, efficient, as well as sustainable growth model.
In order to do that, China needs to stimulate new investments, because doing so would create more high-skilled jobs as opposed to low-end jobs.
It will also push advances in uh, the science and technologies in terms of materials science, digital control system, as well as the ai's application in the smart grid management and so forth.
So overall, i think the green transition is part of the chinese calling for new quality productive forces in Chinese economy.
Then finally, by 2035, non-fossil energy is expected to account for over 30 of China's total consumption.
What will we take in terms of innovation, greater management and international cooperation to reach these targets?
Yes, I think a number of areas.
One is we touched upon earlier about innovation.
I think there are more measures where China can take to upgrade the energy storage technology and utilize other sources of renewable energy, such as hydrogen.
Secondly, I think China needs to further upgrade its infrastructure in terms of modernizing the grid network in order to cater to the increasing level of renewable energy.
Thirdly and lastly, I think China needs to expand its international collaboration by deepening partnerships with other countries, but particularly with global South countries, through some of the existing initiatives, such as the Global Development Initiative, as well as the Global Governance Initiative.
And so I think, through all these measures, China is going to help the entire world to achieve a low carbon future.
Thanks, Professor, for your insightful analysis.
That was Professor Wang Xingsong, Associate Professor at Beijing Normal University School of Government, coming up.
China sees steady growth in people's incomes in the first nine months.
We'll take a look at what's driving the progress.
This is World Today.
Stay with us.
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China's per capita disposable income grew 51 in the first three quarters of 2025, supported by stable economic growth and a strong job market.
Incomes of rural residents increased 57 year-on-year, maintaining a faster growth rate than that of urban residents.
Meanwhile, consumer spending has remained steady, signaling growing confidence and a clear shift towards services, technology and green lifestyles.
So what's driving this transformation and what does this tell us about the overall resilience of China's economy?
For more on this, my colleague Zhao Yang spoke with Li Lun, Assistant Professor of Economics at Peking University.
So Professor Li Lun, China's per capita disposable income grew over 5 in the first three quarters of this year.
What does this tell us about the overall resilience of China's economy?
Yeah, so we see that the per capita disposable income is reaching almost 33000 yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, which is a 51 nominal increase or 52 real increase.
And we're seeing that also.
You know, the rural income is growing faster than urban income, which means, you know, the income gap between the, you know the rural and urban residents are becoming, you know, narrower.
So I think this is pointing to a very healthy growth or rebound of China's economy, because we're seeing that the income is up and also prices are remaining relatively stable.
And also the job market is pretty stable as well.
The urban unemployment rate is on average only 5%.
So we're also seeing the income gap being narrowed.
So overall, I think it pictures a very healthy and resilient picture for the Chinese economy.
And with consumption expenditure up also nearly 5, are we seeing stronger consumer confidence right now?
Yeah, so what you point out is that consumption growth is almost similar or the same as the growth with disposable income.
That means people are spending roughly the same proportion of their income in consumption, so they're not saving, consuming more than before.
They're not consuming more than before, so it's basically keeping up the same rate.
But if you look at details, for example, if we look at you know specific categories we're seeing some almost double digit increase in online retail.
So online retail is up by 9.8%.
We're seeing service is also increasing by 5.2%.
So that increase is also benefiting the service sector.
And if we look at, for example, the holiday spending over the Super Golden Week in October, we saw that people are making a lot of domestic trips and spending a lot in tourism, in leisure.
So overall, I think, you know, we're definitely seeing stronger consumer confidence right now.
And it's not a spending spree per se.
It's not, you know, a boost or, you know, a super kick in the consumption.
But I think it's definitely, you know, leading back in towards the trend.
And stronger consumer confidence.
The official data also shows that nearly half of the consumption spending now goes to services.
So what does this shift tell us about the evolving lifestyles and economic structure of China?
Yeah, so I think in 2024, the service is 46% of per capita consumption, so almost 50%.
This is a higher level than before, but it's still not as high as in many advanced economies.
I think the reason why we're kind of, you know, focusing on service industry is that in China especially, with the manufacturing being very advanced, you know, the products are gradually getting cheaper and cheaper.
So it's very difficult to kind of keep up the consumption growth only by products alone.
So services, I think it not only provides jobs, but it also provides, you know, experiences.
It also kind of, you know, basically shifting the demand from the things to experiences, which is a durable shift, a sustainable boost for demand.
So I think overall, I think the data is showing that only half of the consumption is into services.
I think in the future, it definitely needs to get much higher.
But how, I think it also depends on our technology, our new innovations as well.
And how do initiatives like improving outlay care, child care and cultural services fit into the broader strategy of boosting consumption?
Do you think?
Yeah, so elderly care and childcare itself can be a huge market.
So market estimates put the silver economy at $7 trillion at a market size.
So a lot of other estimates say that by 2035 the silver economy is projected to be a market with 30 trillion.
So basically, People put money and efforts into the silver economy, for example in elderly care, in buying medical services and medical equipment.
This itself can be a very strong growth driver.
But I think beyond that childcare or elderly care, they can also boost consumer confidence because basically in principle it reduces saving needs for precautionary.
It reduces basically what we call precautionary saving.
Basically, people put some sum of their money to prevent diseases or to prevent discretionary needs for treating their child or treating their elderlies.
If the elderly care and childcare is in place, people do not consistently need to put that amount of money into saving and they can use it for consumption in other places.
So I think also I want to point out with robotics and AI, I think the elderly care industry is going to have some very drastic improvements.
For example, we saw that recently there's external skeleton that can help the elderly climb up the mountains.
That become very popular both domestically and overseas.
I think we're going to see more and more of that innovation in the future.
And you mentioned AI.
Actually, the AI Plus action plan is designed to integrate AI into service industries through the year 2035.
So what kinds of consumer experiences could this create?
Yeah, so I mean, AI is basically, you know boosting, you know, the traditional industries in ways that's only imaginable previously.
For example, I think AI can be combined into robotics and help us in terms of physical health and well-being.
It can also be integrated into education.
As far as I know, a lot of students are actually using AI to help them study.
I think in terms of services as well.
So right now we're gradually seeing, for example, a lot of coffees or drinks are made with robotics and AI.
So in the future, with the help of AI, we could get a lot more service done by AI as well.
And finally, I think, in terms of governance, in terms of safety.
So uh with, you know a lot of more consumption and a lot more.
You know, for example, traveling and leisure.
Um, you know ai can help us.
You know, regulate the traffic, provide better governance, or with the security and standards, and improve people's.
You know experiences when they're traveling, And Professor Li Lun.
So how are China's middle income groups and Generation Z driving the transformation of the consumption?
What are the new consumption trends to watch?
Yeah, so we have.
You know, many observers think that China's have a very large population of middle income.
A commonly cited number is around 500 million, you know, middle income population.
And with Gen Z?
Right now, Gen Z accounts for almost 20 of the population.
Them combined, I think they have a very different consumption pattern than the previous generations or other demographic groups.
I think they, for example, they focus more on experiences rather than objects.
So you can see from the traveling.
Instead of signing up for a travel agency and go to one of the tourist groups, they oftentimes prefer to drive by themselves and also or get a driver themselves.
In terms of categories, I think both the middle income and gen z prefer, you know sports wellness, outdoor.
And in the future, i think, with you know, the middle income group begin to, for example, improve their real estate or move into bigger houses.
I think we are going to see a lot of increase in home improvement, in the smart upgrade of their home appliances.
We are already seeing some of that in the official statistics that home appliances is always growing 20 year on year.
For example, I think there's going to be a further increase in the electric vehicles, because when people switch to larger homes, sometimes even single family homes, they can have access to more convenient charging pods and so on.
So overall, I think we're definitely moving towards a more, I think, greener and smarter and more experiential style of consumption in the future.
And looking forward, what will define China's next phase of consumption growth?
Is that technology, demographics or what else?
So that's a very good question.
I think technology defines what are the products that can be bought and demographics kind of define who are the people that's making the purchase.
So I think you need both the demographics and the technology to kind of. form the entire market.
Of course, we're seeing new products, new innovations being brought out almost every day, but we have to make sure that these products are capable of accommodating to the needs of the changing demographics.
We don't want, for example, to have products that nobody knows how to use.
Of course, the market can adjust so that the products that's obsolete or nobody knows how to use it will gradually lose its market share and exit the market.
But overall, I think maintaining a healthy market, maintaining a sustainable growth target, maintaining a grain And quality upgrade for our, for example vehicles, for our appliances, is very important for the future.
That was Li Lun, Assistant Professor of Economics at Peking University, talking with Zhao Yang.
You're listening to Road Today.
We'll be back after a short break.
Welcome back to Road Today with me, Anna, in Beijing.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has reiterated his country's readiness for a ceasefire.
He said Russia has lost interest in diplomacy after it became clear that Ukraine will not receive long range missiles.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow's stance remains unchanged since the recent meeting between the Russian and US presidents in Alaska.
He said the cause for an immediate ceasefire is equivalent to ignoring the root causes of the conflict.
European nations are working with Ukraine on a 12-point proposal to end the conflict along the current battle lines.
So for more on this, let's have Kamal Makili-Aliyev, Associate Professor at the School of Global Studies at University of Gothenburg.
Professor, let's kick off the conversation with Europe's 12-point plan.
Europe and Ukraine are pushing a ceasefire along the current front lines, aiming to counter costs for territorial concessions in exchange for peace.
According to reports, the plan would be overseen by a US-led committee and links Ukraine and the EU's future with post-war reconstruction funding.
How realistic is it that this could actually become the basis for negotiations?
Well, it can serve as a pragmatic starting point potentially, but only as a framework for the face talks, not as a final settlement.
The proposal actually quite cleverly reframes the problem around stability and reconstruction, which Europe can credibly fund, but it also avoids immediate territorial recognition by tying the reconstruction of Ukraine and the EU ascension to post-war processes.
So that makes it politically attractive to Kyiv and many European Union capitals as a way to freeze the front without rewarding aggression outright.
But at the same time, its viability really depends on Russia accepting a hold to its gains and on robust verification security guarantees for Ukraine.
And Moscow really have resisted this thing so far.
So if you say directly, it's a plausible foundation for the talks, but it's not a silver bullet.
And it would only work if paired with kind of credible enforcement and sequencing that preserves Ukraine's sovereignty claims.
Professor, after the US-Russia foreign ministers' call, Trump says his meeting with Putin was on hold, while Lavrov insisted Russia's position hasn't changed since Alaska, opposing an immediate ceasefire that ignores the roots of the conflict.
So, in your view, is Russia currently more inclined to resolve the conflict through diplomacy, or are there other considerations at play?
I think Russia is engaging very tactically in diplomacy when it suits Moscow's bargaining position.
It's not currently seeking a negotiated settlement, however.
The one that would preserve Ukraine's pre-war borders, for example.
And US and Russia trust is very minimal right now.
We can see that by how the talks between them proceed or any kind of engagement proceed.
So yeah, it's sufficient for just talks, but it's not for the quite a quick agreement that Trump, for example, is hoping for.
Moscow publicly repeats conditions, right?
Neutrality, territorial demands. that Kyiv and the West generally reject.
So Lavrov recent kind of talking about the Alaska summit red lines.
It actually stresses this Moscow position that hasn't shifted at all.
So that means Russia is more likely using diplomacy to reset advantages by time, extract guarantees, but not to compromise on the core claims.
And this strategically, is more security architecture, debate and geopolitical influence in the Euro-Atlantic and in the Pacific space, rather than any kind of ideological posturing.
So you cannot come up to the common ground on the ideology here.
You just need to take the situation on the ground as it is.
And do you think there is enough trust between the United States and Russia to conduct substantive negotiations?
And what, in your opinion, is the main focus of the U.S.-Russia strategic contest?
I think it's actually, you spin it around this exact premise, right?
The trust is very low and you need to have a solution that would allow the inspection of a ceasefire agreement, verification of that everything is holding right and sequencing between those two sides.
If you talk of any kind of ceasefire on this kind of very large frontline, And strategically that would mean that the West would be trying to maintain the security architecture that it's been building up to now with its NATO posture right.
Long range strike capabilities. and not going to be very soft on geopolitical influence, right?
It's going to be a geopolitical influence question between Russia and Euro-Atlantic integration over time.
So I would expect a very hard bargaining here, but no rapid confidence building or kind of quick ceasefire.
Then, turning to Ukraine's situation, Zelensky says he's ready for a ceasefire, but there are reports saying that he was advised in Washington to consider territorial concessions.
Given the pressure from major allies like the United States, is Ukraine truly ready for a territorial compromise and what's behind Zelensky's recent remarks?
I think it's very, you know semi-transparent, because publicly Kyiv is going to reject these territorial concessions.
Privately, the Ukrainian leaders will pragmatically weigh options right.
Any kind of concessions they would give must buy them credible, enforceable security and reconstruction guarantees.
That, I think, was indicated very clearly even in the talks that are not that transparent to the public.
So Zelenskyy has repeatedly ruled out ceding ground and Ukrainian public sentiment is strongly opposed to that kind of any territorial concessions.
At the same time, the negotiators in Kiev are going to be faced with reality checks, right?
There's people and infrastructure that is suffering.
Long term support is still unsure, not assured.
So tactical talks about sequencing temporary freezes, international guarantees for Ukraine they're all going to be a part of the negotiation process.
But only if these things are achievable to Ukraine.
Are they going to go into any kind of concessions, right?
Zelensky readiness languages therefore, should be read like a political positioning signaling flexibility on modalities while guarding the red line of sovereignty for Ukraine.
Washington says the planned Trump-Putin meeting is on hold.
On the same day, European leaders issued a joint statement expressing strong support for Trump's ceasefire stance, pledging to increase pressure on Russia and continue backing Ukraine.
Could this mean a united Western Front is forming?
How do you see the strategic differences between Europe and the United States when it comes to Russia?
There seems to be a rhetorical unity on stopping the fighting and sustaining pressure on Russia, but substantive differences are still there, especially when it comes to risk tolerance and leverage tools that the West has against Russia.
European leaders.
You know they talk in their joint statement about backing the ceasefire concept, but at the same time they're pledging to increase pressure on Moscow and protect Ukraine's long-term interests.
So that reflects a kind of a compromise from European side.
They both endorse ceasefire if it's enforceable.
So like it's a real ceasefire and paired with sanction, reconstruction commitments and safeguards to Ukrainian sovereignty.
So U.S. approaches this differently, especially under current leadership.
And it at times emphasizes quick summits and deal-making with Russia, creating tension over whether to prioritize immediate ceasefire optics or actually long-term deterrence.
So there is unity in this headline, but it's actually very much diverges on what the tactics, negotiating tactics and sequencing is going to mean.
Then, Professor, finally, let's talk sustainable peace.
All parties claim to seek peace, but it means different things.
Russia wants Ukraine neutrality, while Ukraine and its allies focus on holding Russia accountable.
So, in your view, what are the essential elements that a sustainable peace agreement must include, and how close are the parties to reaching it?
I think there are considerable differences between those positions still there, and that's why we do not see the meeting in Hungary that was first announced but then retracted by the United States right.
So Russia's public demands territorial transfers, not the exclusion of Ukraine, the clash of Ukraine's assistance on sovereignty and with an ability to come to EU-NATO integration.
So without Moscow's willingness to accept a framework that secures Ukraine's core territorial integrity or a credible phased process of international guarantees, I think a durable settlement is quite unlikely, especially at this stage.
So the practical path forward is incremental.
Confidence building measures, local pauses, humanitarian corridors.
That probably is a good start, followed by phased de-escalation plus multinational security guarantees.
But we're still even before square one on most of these elements.
Thanks, Professor, for your in-depth analysis.
That was Kamal Makili-Aliyev, Associate Professor at the School of Global Studies at University of Gothenburg.
This is World Today.
Stay tuned.
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U.S.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright says about 1400 employees with the National Nuclear Security Administration have been placed on furlough as the federal shutdown enters its fourth week.
Speaking in North Las Vegas, the secretary quoted the first furlough in the agency's 25-year history and warned that contractors would be next if the shutdown drags on.
He warned that disruptions could delay key modernization and testing programs.
Local reports indicate about 3000 contractors in Nevada are affected, with experts raising concerns that the move could compromise nuclear safety and security.
To delve into this, let's bring in Professor Qu Bo, Director of Institute of International Relations at China Foreign Affairs University.
Thanks for joining us, Professor.
So it's my pleasure.
Professor, the government shutdown has put around 1400 NSA employees on furlough almost 80 of the agency's workforce the largest shutdown in history.
From your perspective, what hidden or systemic risks could this bare-bones operation pose to the long-term safety, reliability and effectiveness of the US nuclear arsenal?
Yes, the National Nuclear Security Administration is a United States federal agency responsible for safeguarding national security through the military application of nuclear science.
So the NSA maintains and enhance the safety, security and effectiveness of US nuclear weapons stockpile.
Works to reduce the global danger from weapons of mass destruction and responsible to nuclear and radiological emergencies in the United States and abroad.
So we can see, the NSA's function is mainly about building nuclear weapons, enriching special nuclear material and stalking civilians.
So just like you mentioned, the NNSA was established in 2000.
And since its creation, NNSA has never before followed federal workers during funding lapse.
So the flaws will first impact NNSA sites that assemble nuclear weapons.
Because those facilities require large teams to manufacture weapons, flaws will force those sites into safe shutdown mode.
So I think there will be two consequences of this flow.
So the first that will impact the US nuclear deterrence capacity and that will delay the US nuclear weapons modernization programs and also maybe delay they will handle the nuclear weapons to Department of Defense.
And the second, as you mentioned, that will have some long-term effects on the safety, reliability and effectiveness of US nuclear arsenal.
And especially, although we know there are some procedures to guarantee the safety and effectiveness, And this is the first time to shut down and that will really test the effectiveness of the safety procedures.
With the shutdown now is in its fourth week, we see both parties remain unwilling to compromise on key issues.
Some observers say each side is testing the others and the public's pin threshold as a bargaining tool.
How do you interpret this dynamic and what does it reveal about the strategy and political calculation behind this stalemate?
Yeah, sure.
And I think so by now.
I think the Republican could negotiate an extension to the health care subsidies demanded by the Democrats.
All the shutdown could become so disruptive that the Democrats decided to back down and agree to fund the government, at least temporarily, to get things up and running again.
But so far, I think there are two factors affect this process.
So the first, the Donald Trump administration has been unwilling to offer substantive concessions.
It believes the Democrats will bear the brunt of the public's blame because it argues the party's demands caused the shutdown.
Meanwhile, the Democrats believe their efforts to secure cheaper healthcare are much more popular.
So even by now, many Democrats seem to be itching for a bigger fight this time around.
And funding the government is one of the only places where the Democrats have some leverage.
So I think the Democratic leaders now, they already signaled that the Democrats will not budge.
And that is up to Republican lawmakers to negotiate.
So I think this is the political game, and they shut down the government and they punish the American people and just to get their own leverage.
So it's far by now.
I think the Republican and the Democratic.
There is no closure to an agreement on how to resolve an ongoing budget dispute.
Professor, the Affordable Care Act is also tied up in the budget negotiations.
How might linking specific social programs to government funding affect the well-being of the people and shape the US political landscape going forward?
This is definitely true.
The Affordable Care Act.
I think that is a very important political legacy of Democrats and they really insist on that.
And by now, they are the minority party in both the House and the Senate.
And they do not have other leverage to counterbalance the influence Donald Trump and his Republicans.
And on the other hand, the Democrats.
They felt they had to do that because by now the Donald Trump administration and actually he is now to really hurry up to reach a compromise, because Donald Trump seems more than happy to shatter larger parts of the US government for an extended period.
So over the past Donald Trump took office, He has slashed the government spending and sent many federal workers testing the boundaries of presidential power.
And especially for him, it seems.
He's use the shutdown to identify more non-essential workers who could be permanently let go.
From this both point of view, and that is why the Democrats must make the Affordable Care Act to tie these specific social programs to the federal budget.
Professor, the shutdown's effects go beyond unpaid federal workers, touching aviation safety, food inspections, nutrition programs and other critical services.
Some argue these are just growing pains of the political process.
Do you agree?
What less obvious but deeper societal impacts might this deadlock be causing?
Yeah, definitely.
I think this is the problems, the growing pains of the U.S. democratic institutions.
And we also say the US democratic system has the self-correction function.
But somehow the US democratic system.
They have to make all false in the first place and then they will correct all the false.
We already see the dysfunction of U.S. democracy and especially represent in the recent shutdown.
One last question.
Government shutdowns are not new in the United States, but they seem to be happening more frequently and lasting longer.
So, from your view, what are the root causes of this shutdown and restart cycle, and what kinds of compromise or political leadership are needed from both parties to end this?
The first thing is about the political polarization of United States politics.
And additionally, not just the politics already polarized.
If you look at the US society, also very deeply divided.
So by now the median voters seems not matter anymore.
And so we look at the US politics is getting much more polarized.
And for each one want to join the presidential campaign or any election.
And their major job is to consolidate their electoral base.
And that will make the US politics much more polarized.
So i think in currently, at least in the following near future, in the following like a decade or two decades, and i think, the us political system, It's really difficult to improve the effectiveness of the political system and it's really difficult to really the middle the politicians could win the election in the current political situation.
Thanks, Professor, for your insightful analysis.
That was Professor Qu Bo, Director of the Institute of International Relations at China Foreign Affairs University.
Hi, I'm Einer Tangen, a political and economic analyst and senior fellow at the Independent Taiher Institute.
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Japan has reportedly warned Vietnam against a ban on petrol-powered motorbikes in Hanoi, citing potential job losses in supporting industries.
The Japanese embassy and Vietnam's main foreign motorcycle trade group, which includes Honda and Suzuki, both sent letters cautioning that the ban could disrupt production and threaten supply chain companies.
Honda alone controls 80% of Vietnam's two-wheelers market.
In July, Vietnam announced the ban for central Hanoi starting mid-2026, with water restrictions planned for 2028 as part of efforts to curb severe air pollution.
For more on this.
My colleague Jingheng spoke with Zhou Mi, Senior Research Fellow with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation.
So thank you very much for joining us today, Dr. Zhou.
First of all, do you think this planned ban on patrol-powered motorcycles is a necessary step to tackle air pollution in Vietnam, especially in its capital city of Hanoi?
Yes, we know that.
Vietnam has made it clear that they will reach the carbon neutral in the year 2050.
So as a capital city, I think that Hanoi has gathered so many people.
So many people are using the motorcycle for transportation.
That's so crowded.
More than 10 million people, you know vehicles are using here in hong kong, so i think it's really our big impact for the air pollution or even for the carbon emission, as the experiences in china.
I think that one of the uh you know changes in the recent years for improving the air is about what we are supporting the people to change from the fossil fuels to the electricity.
One of the main usage of the fossil fuels.
The motorcycles are really taking a very important part in all the transportation vehicles in Whiteland.
And another side, I would say, as you just mentioned, that's a capital city.
The capital city is, in most cases, is a good example for other cities to follow.
When Honei is trying to do that.
It's not just a stop there, as the first ring inside the first ring, at the first phase of prohibiting the use of the fusel motorcycle.
It will spread from the first ring to the second ring to the third ring in different phases.
So in this regard, I would say it is a very important message to be sent to the society of the right name, and it will have a better impact on them to use the electricity motorcycles instead.
So what do you make of the stated concerns of the Japanese government and Japanese manufacturers about this ban's possible impact on relevant industries?
Are they legitimate?
Well, I don't think that is a very good suggestion from another government to discuss about the policies of the local one.
As we know, when the government is trying to send some messages to another country, they have to take it very carefully about what are the impacts of these messages, because all the government has its power to decide what it's going to do in the policies and trying to shape the environment for the development.
Maybe it is true that when the society is transferring from the fossil fuels to electricity one, it will have some kind of loss on the jobs to do with some of the motorcycle parts or repair or maintenance.
But it will create an even different one and sometimes that is even bigger market for the society to adapt to.
Well, we know that when we are developing normally we will try to develop from the lower stage to a higher level.
But when another country wants to stop the country to develop from the lower to update to a higher level, I think it's unfair because everyone knows that the renewable energy will be the trend, especially when vitamin is trying to improve its use of the renewable energy, as we can find from the plan of vitamin garments that they were trying to improve the use of renewable energy to almost three-fourths of all the electricity generation in the future.
So it's highly possible for them to have more supply of the electricity and that is definitely important for these countries to have an update for the industrial structure and development mode.
So I think that is not so proper for the Japanese government to to argue that the policies of Vietnam is not good because they have to take care about, or consideration about, different issues with the society development to the economy, sustainability.
Now, a business context we have to mention here is that in the case of Honda, this Japanese manufacturer, for example, Its automotive business has been squeezed by heightened competition due to a global shift to electric vehicles.
So, as a result, it has become more reliant on its motorcycle business as a driver for the company's profits.
So do you think this kind of reliance on motorcycle business is sustainable for Honda, for example?
Well, we know that when the fuel-to-fuel systems are working nowadays in the world, it depends on a lot of different factors.
One of them is about expectation of the market.
The fossil fuels are in the declining trend as we can see that the price is continuously to drop, maybe more than four years.
So in the possible future we still foresee that the prices of the fossil fuels to decline And in this regard, I think that the people who are dealt with these businesses they will feel not so confident on the investment because the profits will decline.
So in this regard, I think that, Generally speaking I would say the fossil fuels will be replaced by the renewable energy and if the Hona is trying to make its position as Euro, I don't think that it will have a bigger market in the coming future.
Also find, because Honda is also making the cars, so it has lost many of the market shares in Africa, in ASEAN countries.
So for the motorcycle it's a little bit different.
But if they are still trying to stay there, to not to change about the you know the you know use of the new technology, like for the artificial intelligence or other things, I think that it will definitely will dampen its abilities for sustainable development.
And if you're looking around the world, there are so many new brands who are doing with e-bikes and it's not only about the convenience of using that.
It will give people more usage of the technology and will support them in different ways.
So I think that is based on the market competition.
And Honda, if they still want to stay there, I don't think that will be so good for them.
So ultimately, how can Vietnam and Japan resolve this issue?
I think that it's not so easy to just read some consensus, to hear about both sides' position.
But in our world, I would say we should believe the market, we should respect the market.
And no one can just deal with the independence of the policies of another country.
So I think that they may discuss about the possibilities, maybe like to introduce some new competitors in this market and trying to support, you know, the country to fulfill their commitments in the climate change, you know kind of commitments to the international community.
That was Dr Jiang Mi from Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, speaking with my colleague Ding Heng.
That's all the time for this edition of World Today.
I'm Keana in Beijing.
Thank you so much for listening.
Bye for now.
