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Today, breaking news.
A federal worker and a U.S. politician have agreed Congress isn't working.
I am angry.
The politicians, in my opinion, are forgetting the fact that one, we do very important work and two, we are real people with real families, with real issues and real needs.
Well, they're right.
I just got to Congress about 40 weeks ago, and I can tell you every indication is that it's broken.
We're looking at shutdown on World Business Report from the BBC World Service.
Yes, I'm Ed Butler, and today we are hearing from a shutdown federal worker who's wondering where their Thanksgiving turkey is coming from.
We're also hearing how Canadians are coping with the abandonment of US trade talks and why a former Russian prime minister thinks the tide is turning against Turkey.
President Putin's wartime economy.
Today, hundreds of thousands of federal workers have missed their full paychecks for the first time.
Around 14 million of them are on unpaid leave or are working without pay as a result of the so-called shutdown.
We're three and a half weeks into it.
Democrats and Republicans in Congress can't agree on how to pass a new federal budget.
I've been hearing today from one federal worker.
We're calling him Chris, not his real name.
He wanted to remain anonymous for fear of reprisal from his employer.
Chris works in finance.
Ironically, within the Department of Defence, but there's no finance for him.
He told me what it was like opening his paycheck on Friday morning.
Every two weeks, I get a notification via email that my pay stub has arrived.
Already knowing what to expect, I did open the application to look at it and was greeted by a bunch of zeros.
The pit feeling that was in my stomach then really hasn't left.
It's one thing to know that this is what's going to happen.
The reality of it staring at you back at the screen just kind of was not a pleasant feeling.
It's still not a pleasant feeling.
You're going to get paid back, though, eventually, aren't you, when this all blows over?
The law says we're supposed to.
However, my trust in the politicians to follow the law right now is not especially high.
I want to hope I'm going to see money, but I have to prepare for the fact that maybe I won't.
Tell me about the last three and a half weeks.
How has it been and how are you coping?
In the office, we do tend to keep things light.
We are all in the same boat.
Everybody's been very supportive, at least in our division.
And, you know, we get through with gallows humor.
But, I mean, are people... You aren't struggling?
You've got enough money to look after yourself and your family for now?
I have for now.
Um, if this goes on significantly longer, I don't know that I will have.
However, I do know people who are already struggling, and we're struggling since the day.
Oh yes.
Since day one, they can't afford to be without a paycheck. for much longer than it's been.
I probably have another four to six weeks where I'll be okay.
But once the US Thanksgiving holiday passes by, I will be sitting here going, what can I stretch?
What can I put off?
Thanksgiving is normally a party time, isn't it?
It is.
If it went that far, I guess it wouldn't be for people working on the federal pay.
Some of them I would think it won't be.
I hope it does not go that long.
Describe the situations that some of your colleagues are in.
My colleagues are making phone calls to the mortgage holders saying, hey, I'm not getting paid.
And the mortgage companies, at least the ones I've been hearing, have been considerate.
So I'm in the same boat.
I have a mortgage.
I have a car payment, credit cards.
We all have the bills.
The creditors are understanding to a point, but ultimately they want their money and we want to make sure that nobody gets hurt more than we're already being hurt.
Do you feel people are being hurt?
I mean, do you feel hurt by this?
I am angry.
The politicians, in my opinion, are forgetting the fact that one, we do very important work.
And two, we are real people with real families, with real issues and real needs.
And ultimately, they need to get in the same room and talk this out.
You feel forgotten.
Oh, yeah, absolutely.
You are a compulsory worker, am I right?
You have to turn up each day.
As of today, yes.
As of today.
Correct.
There are some rumors that some of us who are compulsory will be told that we will be furloughed.
That's at least the hinting that our supervisor has given us.
Right.
Because essentially, you're sitting there, there's no budget to play with.
So I guess as an office worker, there's not perhaps a huge amount of work you even can do.
There isn't.
And I work for a finance division.
So no budget, bills don't get paid, purchases don't be made.
There's nothing to do but look at a bunch of zeros on a spreadsheet.
Where do you think this is going to go?
Because what I was hearing is more and more workers are choosing to call in sick because they're maybe looking for second jobs.
Some gig work anything, just to bring in some money each month.
I'm considering my options for that as well.
I don't have a choice.
You know, if I have to go work Uber to make a couple bucks to be able to make my car payment, I have a choice.
The thoughts of one federal employee.
It's not just regular office workers like Chris going without.
The shutdown has also deprived the US of much of its official data.
September's jobs data is still unreported.
We may not see the October figures for some time.
So how do you work out what the jobs market actually looks like right now?
Christine Schwab at our US partner Marketplace has been trying to find out, calling up some of those responsible for hiring America's workforce.
I asked recruiters to describe in a word or two the job market in their eyes.
And here's what I got.
Quite a mix, because there's a split in the job market that echoes something happening in the greater economy higher earners are thriving and everyone else not so much.
Michael DiStefano is CEO of Korn Ferry's professional search and interim group and hires across the labor market for different industries and experience levels.
The low end of the market is hurting, but the high end of the market is pretty robust.
DiStefano says there's always demand for high earners, even in a sluggish economy.
But he says the rest of the job market relies on an expanding economy.
And right now, the picture is mixed.
Most of the jobs that we have seen at the mid-level and lower levels are replacement jobs.
They are not growth-oriented.
Not growth-oriented because companies have been holding back from investing and taking big risks because of interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty.
And then everyone's favorite T word.
Tariffs.
Chris Allaire is CEO of Averity, a tech recruiting firm that focuses on software engineering.
He says added together, all these factors are creating too much uncertainty.
It means a lot of Allaire's work right now is about finding talent, who he might have jobs for when companies are ready to invest again.
He says there are lots of excellent candidates on the sidelines.
The quality of talent that available is right now on the market has never been higher.
It is phenomenal.
So tech jobs outside of AI not doing so well.
Neither are government jobs, with all the federal downsizing.
On the positive side, there's health care.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects 19 million job openings in the sector each year through 2034.
Also doing well are companies that cater to luxury tastes.
Susan Levine is CEO of Career Group Companies, which has worked with Prada and Waldorf Astoria Hotels.
There's no shortage of successful wealthy people.
Inflation is affecting top earners less because price increases don't hit them as hard.
So they're still spending on cars, vacations and clothes.
We are as busy today as we were coming out of COVID.
Levine is very much an optimist.
And as tough as it might be in different parts of the job market.
Right now, DiStefano at Korn Ferry is too.
It feels as though brighter days are ahead.
Each month, Touchwood seems to be getting a little bit more buoyant.
And we'll keep on that path, he says, if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates.
Christine Schwab reporting.
So will the Fed lower interest rates?
Its decision on rates is due next week.
And there's been a bit more talk about this today, with the new inflation numbers coming out, albeit nine days late.
Chris Lowe, Chief Economist at FHN Financial in New York, is with us.
Consumer price inflation edging higher, Chris.
What does that mean for rates?
Well, I think the key word there is edging.
And that's because it was up less than expected.
And, in fact, the core inflation numbers.
That is excluding food and energy, which are volatile and bounce around month to month.
The core was up 02.
Most of the major categories were tame.
We saw the lowest increase in rents since 2021, the lowest increase in housing in general, in fact, since 2021.
Medical costs contained significantly.
Services were up just two-tenths.
So it's the first time in really three or four months that we've had an inflation report I think Fed officials can look at and really have trouble finding anything to worry about.
Right.
They're just more worried about jobs right now than they are about the price of things.
I mean, all of this is somewhat challenging news.
And yet it seems that the markets are still very buoyant, still climbing.
Yeah, and I think that's because, for some reason and I think it's probably AI and just significant growth in social media the economy in the US is actually pretty robust.
We've had growth of 38 in the second quarter.
And according to the Atlanta Fed, it's tracking 3.9% in the third.
So that's boosting profits and the markets behave accordingly.
Chris Lowe, thank you very much indeed.
Hi, I'm Simon Jack.
I'm Xing Xing.
And Good Bad Billionaire is back for a new season.
Delving into the lives and livelihoods of more of the world's billionaires.
Like the owner of Russia's largest online retailer, Wild Berries, she's Russia's first self-made female billionaire.
Tatiana Kim.
The action movie icon and former governor of California, Arnold Schwarzenegger.
And the co-founder of Snapchat, a billionaire at just 25 years old, Evan Spiegel.
Simon and I are asking you to decide if they're good, bad, or just another billionaire.
That's good bad billionaire from the BBC World Service.
Listen now wherever you get your BBC podcasts.
You're with World Business Report from the BBC World Service.
Now, this week, the fight moved to the courts over another politically contentious issue.
It's the massive charges. the Trump administration wants to impose on H-1B visas.
These are the visas issued up to 65000 foreign workers each year, mostly from Asia, who come to the US looking for jobs that American employers say that they cannot fill otherwise.
Last month the administration slapped it a 100000 charge on H-1B visas, putting them beyond the purse of most small and medium-sized firms.
There is now a legal challenge to this decision brought by various groups who say the administration didn't have the right.
To override existing laws.
White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt says this week the President's rule, changes were needed.
We know, for far too long the H-1B visa system has been spammed with fraud basically, and that's driven down American wages.
So the president wants to refine this system, which is part of the reason he implemented these new policies.
These actions are lawful, they are necessary, and we'll continue to fight this battle in court.
The White House view?
Well, Sam Liccardo is a Democrat congressman who represents parts of Silicon Valley, the California area most affected by the visa curbs.
Along with some Republicans in Congress, he's written an open letter calling on the president to roll back his recent executive order.
It appears that new applicants who are seeking an H-1B visa after September 21st are subject to this 100000 fee.
Now, obviously, those rules have changed quite a bit since the White House pronouncement.
And I think all of us are doing our best to figure out exactly where this plane lands.
It's pretty apparent that this administration is shooting before names.
Right.
And we know that Walmart, for example, agreed that it would no longer issue H-1B visas to anyone from here on in.
Can Silicon Valley not afford that fee?
Well, let me say first every company like Walmart needs to make its own decision about whether H-1Bs are appropriate.
But what worries me far more than Walmart are the early stage company's in quantum computing, in AI, in those critical technologies that are going to drive the innovation that will sustain our country's growth in the next century.
We need those companies to be able to benefit from the best and brightest from around the world.
That has been the secret sauce of Silicon Valley's success.
There have been studies that showed as long ago as 2022 that China was producing twice as many top AI researchers as the United States.
That gap has probably only grown as we see more investment from the Chinese national government into Tsinghua and Peking University and other institutes.
And we see our own government looking in every way possible to undermine our cutting edge universities.
Right, because obviously the administration is saying look, you know these big tech companies Amazon more than 10000 H-1B visas Microsoft Meta Apple Google, each with more than 4000 visas.
This is just the first half of this year I'm talking about.
So they are... spitting them out in very large numbers.
That's an awful lot of jobs that are not going to US-born workers.
You're saying there simply aren't the US-born workers to fill those jobs.
Well, let me say, look, I think Amazon will be able to afford the fee.
I'm not concerned about Amazon.
And there are plenty of reforms that we could implement in this program to ensure they're better targeted in those critical pioneering technologies that we need.
But what I do know is that in Silicon Valley and throughout the country, the entrance of foreign workers is not simply something that affects the supply of labor, but it also affects the demand for labor.
Our leading companies are overwhelmingly founded by foreign born entrepreneurs.
I think about, for example, Eric Yuan, who founded Zoom in the heart of my city in San Jose.
And if he had not tried nine times, as he did, to get a visa to come to the United States, he would not have launched a company here that is providing thousands of jobs for native-born US citizens.
The current approach of this administration will send the best and brightest minds back to China, to India, to Europe to start companies to compete against us.
And this is an opportunity, I think, for the administration to take a breath, sit down with the leading thinkers in this space and to sit down with members of Congress and let's hammer out a better solution.
We can address those cases of fraud from some of the companies that are involved in outsourcing labor and consulting and so forth.
We need these brilliant minds for our future.
A quick word about talking with Republicans.
We have a shutdown right now.
We've been hearing from another federal worker today complaining that the politicians have forgotten them.
They're not talking to each other.
What do you say to people like that when they look at Washington and they say, Congress is broken.
You guys have to figure out how to sit down and talk.
Well, they're right.
And I just got to Congress about 40 weeks ago.
And I can tell you every indication is that it's broken.
I've spent in the last week hours on the phone with a couple dozen Republicans who quite often agree on some of the steps we can take to be able to reopen the government and extend the critical health tax credits that will help tens of millions of Americans be able to afford their health care over the next few years.
We actually have lots of areas of agreement.
The problem is We're not seeing the leadership on their part to actually be willing to negotiate.
Right.
So it's their fault.
I mean.
The Republicans do have a bill though, and they say stop holding us to ransom, sign the bill, get government moving again, and then we're going to talk.
We're going to talk about all these issues.
Sure, they have a bill.
We had a bill.
They voted down our bill.
That's not the way it actually works if you really want to negotiate to get to an intended outcome.
You actually sit down and negotiate.
And we have not yet seen that happen.
The US Congressman Sam Liccardo.
Sticking with US politics, let's talk about this.
High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars.
Then the worst happens.
Markets shrink and collapse, businesses and industries shut down and millions of people lose their jobs.
A very controversial advertising campaign from the province of Ontario.
Canada's Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has said he will resume trade negotiations with the US whenever Washington is ready.
But President Trump has said he's going to end all of these talks because of this very ad.
Mr Carney says Canada can't control US trade policy or indeed the President's decision-making, but it could focus on its own development and new partnerships, including with Asia.
Corrine Polman is the Executive Vice President of the advocacy group of the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses.
Hello, Corrine.
How are you feeling this evening?
Well feeling again, like another day of topsy-turvy unsteadiness, which has become the norm over the course of the last eight months.
Obviously disappointed to hear this news, because trade talks with the United States seem to be finally moving in some direction.
But you never know from day to day what's going to happen when it comes to President Trump.
And of course, the news hit this morning and I think a lot of business owners were disappointed to hear this was the direction they were thinking of going.
There is a 35% levy on many Canadian imports already.
Are you really feeling the heat now?
I mean, as a result of what we've already seen in the tariff area?
Absolutely.
Businesses in the steel and aluminum sector, the auto sector and many other sectors of the economy in Canada have had to make some very difficult decisions.
Many are looking to other markets, which is not necessarily a bad thing.
Others unfortunately though, are looking at relocating into the United States, which is exactly what the Americans want.
But of course, that's a detriment to our economy.
And it's something we're trying very hard to make sure we have opportunities for those businesses in Canada.
But yes, it certainly has hit in certain sectors quite hard.
And the overall economy, of course, is struggling as well.
What do you think of that ad?
We just played the one featuring President Reagan from the 1980s talking about free markets.
Obviously, he was a Republican president.
It was sponsored by the Ontario state.
It certainly riled up the White House.
Certainly.
I mean, these were the actual remarks from Ronald Reagan.
The Ontario government decided to go do this on their own.
You know, regardless of what that is, it's done.
And my understanding now is that those particular ads will be pulled as of Monday.
That has been announced in November. newspapers here.
And so you know they are moving in a different direction.
After the prime minister spoke to the premier.
But, you know, it's, So everybody's trying to sort of fight for themselves.
So we, you know, we can't necessarily blame the Ontario Premier for doing that.
But of course the ultimate goal here is to get these trade talks back on track and to get to some stability in the trading relationship with between Canada and the US.
It's not helpful, though, is it?
And I think a lot of what we've heard is a lot of defiance in recent months from Canadians feeling affronted by the way the US has behaved on this tariff issue.
But ultimately, you've really got to sit down, make friends and talk.
Talk nice.
Absolutely.
But, you know, people were hurt.
Americans and Canadians have had a long history of working well together.
And I think this was a real affront to many Canadians.
But certainly at the end of the day, it's a large part of our Canadian culture.
Market is in the United States, and so we need to find a solution and hopefully move forward and bring stability to those many, many small and medium to large businesses in Canada that need it.
Corrine Polman, thank you so much.
That's Corrine Polman from the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses.
Now yesterday, you may recall that the US announced new sanctions against Russia and its main oil companies, the first direct sanctions of this kind since the start of the Ukraine crisis, the main part of the Ukraine war in 2022.
President Trump has already threatened India with extra tariffs because of its Russian oil imports this week.
Both India and Chinese refiners.
Indian and Chinese refiners have said that they're going to be cutting back on the buying of Russian oil.
But is it really that simple?
I've been speaking to the Indian oil trader Sumit Rutolia.
Russian crude has been around 17 million barrels per day, roughly around 30 of India's crude requirement.
Out of that, 1.2 million barrels per day directly comes from Rosneft and Luquell.
So the point is this 1.2 million barrels, it has to get diverted.
But Sanction is again on seller, not on the crude oil.
So ultimately, Russian crude will find its way to the Indian refiners, but through lots of more intermediaries and complex trading and financial networks.
So basically, people who want to dodge the sanctions will take the risk.
That's what you're saying.
Yeah, all refiners will try to be compliant and Russian oil through third party still maintains the compliance level.
So yeah, that will increase price.
But again, But I think it's very early to say what the discount levels will be.
How much, given the pressure that's come already from the White House towards India with higher tariffs because of the oil imports from Russia, how much is the government telling you to reduce the amount of Russian oil you're taking in?
And I don't think there has been any official announcement either by Ministry of External Affairs or by the Ministry of Petroleum regarding not need to buy Russian barrels.
So they don't follow unilateral sanctions and all.
So you basically are doing what you want.
These higher tariffs have made no difference on the amount of oil that India is importing.
October imports are coming on 1.6 million barrels per day, same what was in July or August.
So yeah.
That's the Indian oil trader Sumit Ritolia.
One view there, but others say the sanctions are going to make a big difference, especially to the Russian economy.
Mikhail Kasyanov was Russia's prime minister in the early years of Vladimir Putin's presidency.
He's now a vocal critic of the president.
My colleague Liana Byrne asked him, will these sanctions actually hurt Russia?
Two big companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, now just appear to be under these strong, strong American sanctions, as well as European sanctions.
And in fact, Rosneft and Lukoil produce 50% of oil in Russia.
But I have to stress that in January 2025, two other companies' sanctions were imposed.
That's Gazprom Neft and Surgut Neftegaz.
That's another 20% of production of oil in Russia.
So today we have 70%. production of oil in Russia under strong sanctions.
That is a serious effort to tackle the main source of revenue for Putin his ability to finance the war.
A lot of people though, they don't think that there's going to be much change, because they still do have trading partners when it comes to oil, especially India and China.
Yeah, that's correct.
But these sanctions are targeting just all potential partners of Russian oil producers.
If you're concluding a contract with this company, you automatically also appear to be under the sanctions.
That's why we already see that some Chinese companies already canceled long-term transactions with Ross, Nefti and Luo Kuo, and Indian companies doing the same.
That will get the effect of the sanctions not today, not in one month, but in three months' time, say first quarter of 2026.
I think that will be a real problem for Russian budget, for Russian oil-producing companies.
It's interesting, isn't it?
Because sometimes from the outside looking in, there's been so many sanctions on Russia.
Its oil companies have had to pivot.
The country itself has had to pivot really with its trading partners.
But when you look at Russia, its growth figures are still doing pretty well.
It's all because of that military spending, its surge.
And some analysts say the war itself is what's keeping the economy afloat.
So from an economic point of view, does President Putin even have an incentive to end the war?
He has an incentive to end the war, but he can't survive with the current situation because the pressure was not enough.
And that's why he believes that he could win, because just not enough of pressure.
But now, just after these additional sanctions imposed yesterday, the overall situation will change.
And I think we not necessarily would see the dramatic change in January or February, but later next year, some preconditions could appear which would definitely change the situation for better.
Now you were in the Kremlin and I'm sure you worked very closely with major businesses you know and leaders of those businesses when you were in office.
How much influence do they still have over President Putin today, like the likes of the oil companies or possibly even the defence companies?
They don't have influence on Putin in terms of changing the policy.
Of course they can complain how difficult for them to survive, but they don't have any influence on Putin of changing his political vision.
And it's not in their hands, is not going to listen to them, and they're scared to even impress their opinion on this.
The former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov.
Of course, the Kremlin denies these new sanctions will make much of a difference.
We'll see.
That's it for this edition of World Business Report.
From me and the rest of the team, take care.
Hi, I'm Simon Jack.
I'm Xing Xing.
And Good Bad Billionaire is back for a new season.
Delving into the lives and livelihoods of more of the world's billionaires.
Like the owner of Russia's largest online retailer, Wild Berries, she's Russia's first self-made female billionaire.
Tatiana Kim.
The action movie icon and former governor of California, Arnold Schwarzenegger.
And the co-founder of Snapchat, a billionaire at just 25 years old, Evan Spiegel.
Simon and I are asking you to decide if they're good, bad or just another billionaire.
That's good bad billionaire from the BBC World Service.
Listen now wherever you get your BBC podcasts.
