From The New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitro-Eff.
This is The Daily.
On Thursday, a potentially historic agreement between Israel and Hamas began to take shape.
The deal brokered by President Trump secures the exchange of all Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners.
We ended the war in Gaza and really, on a much bigger basis, created peace.
I think it's going to be a lasting peace, hopefully an everlasting peace.
Leaders on both sides and Trump himself signaled that this was a decisive step toward the end of the two-year war in Gaza, and Israelis and Palestinians broke out in celebration.
Today my colleague, Mark Mazzetti, on the remarkable deal-making that got us to this point and whether it really will bring peace.
It's Friday, October 10th.
Mark, having optimism about the end of this war feels pretty perilous.
Like it can feel dangerous to even allow yourself to feel hopeful, because we've seen these two sides inch toward deals and then retreat.
The January ceasefire fell apart, for example.
So I want to start by asking, does this feel different to you, this moment?
Yes, it does.
And there's a few reasons for that.
First of all, President Trump has said he's going to go to Israel soon to make the sort of formal announcement of the deal.
The Israeli cabinet voted on Thursday to approve the deal.
So that's another good sign.
And it appears that Hamas has agreed to Some of the major points of the deal.
Enough that everyone is agreeing that this is the beginning of a process that will take some time, but some of the biggest issues have been navigated, that everyone sees an end in sight.
Okay, let's break down what's in this deal as far as we know right now.
So first and foremost, there's the exchange of hostages and prisoners.
This is, for the Israelis, certainly the biggest point getting the remaining hostages from October 7th 2023 back to Israel.
This would be in exchange for prisoners in Israeli custody.
And this is by far has been the biggest point of contention.
And there seems to be broad agreement on that point.
The other significant aspect that has been agreed to is that Israeli forces are going to withdraw from parts of the Gaza Strip.
Now it's important to say they are still going to be occupying a large part of the Gaza Strip, but there's going to be an Israeli withdrawal to some extent.
And that's another very significant point in this deal.
I mean just to linger on the hostage element of this alone that in and of itself is so significant right.
This has been the number one desire for Israelis.
Absolutely.
And when you go to Israel, it is the one sort of galvanizing element of Israel, This war that brings Israelis together.
This is no matter what they think of the prime minister or the government, or the conduct of the war.
Everyone agrees that, first and foremost, you need to get the hostages home.
But my understanding, right, is that some of the thorniest issues are still on the table.
They haven't been worked out yet.
Right.
So, for instance, what exactly is the requirements for Hamas to lay down its weapons?
What is the future of rebuilding Gaza?
These are things that could ultimately unwind any deal.
But, as we said, some of the big things have been worked out and it is pretty remarkable that, given where we were just a month ago.
And it should be said that the president and his team deserve a great deal of credit for negotiating this over the last month.
OK, tell me the story of what has happened over the past month, how the president and his team kind of got us to this place.
So all of this began in a way that is really surprising.
It begins on September 8th, when Steve Witkoff, who is the Trump administration's Middle East envoy, and Jared Kushner, who is the president's son-in-law, are meeting with Ron Dermer, who is Benjamin Netanyahu's senior advisor.
And they spend hours during that day discussing basically, elements of a plan that they're preparing to present to end the war in Gaza.
Then, on the next day, September 9th, Cell phone video shows people running in the normally quiet and peaceful Qatari capital.
A very large plume of smoke above Doha and paired with that an Israeli military statement.
It's the first time Israel has struck inside Qatar.
Israel launched an airstrike into a residential neighborhood in Doha, which is the capital of Qatar, where senior Hamas leaders have lived for a number of years and where the negotiating team was meeting.
And it failed, first off.
The strike didn't hit the people that the Israelis were trying to hit, the senior Hamas negotiators.
And even after a year where the Israelis have struck in Iran and struck in Lebanon and Yemen and Syria, this felt different.
Because you were doing it in order to kill the people you were negotiating to end a war with, and doing it in a place, Qatar that has been the sort of middleman broker to try to end the war.
And it sounds like that pretty extraordinary attack is taken as a clear sign that Israel's plan is to keep attacking Hamas rather than sit down at the negotiating table.
Right.
The Trump administration learned about the attack.
We're still sort of trying to get details about when, but it was happening when they learned that the Israelis were about to strike in Qatar.
Wow.
And Witkoff calls the Qataris as a sort of warning, but it's too late.
So the Americans are angry about this because, first of all, the Israelis did it without telling them.
And also the Qataris, are central to this entire process of trying to end the war that has been going on for two years.
And the Qataris are furious because they've been playing this role as intermediary and they weren't expected to be bombed by the Israelis, who are a party to the negotiation.
And they demand an apology.
And they basically make the argument that, well, you know, nothing's going to happen now without us.
And I was actually in Israel on the day of the strike.
And all these questions were getting asked after it happened.
What would Hamas do?
What would be the fate of the hostages now that Israel had just tried to kill the Hamas negotiating team?
What would the United States do?
Would the Trump administration put any new pressure on Netanyahu?
In some cases, it seemed like on that front, maybe nothing.
But actually, as it turned out, there was a lot more going on behind the scenes.
What do you mean?
Tell us about that.
Well, some in the White House actually saw the failed strike as an opportunity.
Netanyahu had taken the shot and he missed.
And you know it's.
Perhaps they thought a moment that could be exploited to get Netanyahu to budge on some negotiating points that he had long opposed.
At the same time there was even amid the fury and the anger among Arab governments about the strike in Doha.
They also saw the opportunity that perhaps they could work with the White House to press Netanyahu away on an end of the war.
So there was a confluence of interest here, where the Arab governments and the Trump administration saw that this was a chance to apply pressure on Israel.
Explain this confluence of interests here.
Like what countries are we talking about and what are the various stakes they have in this?
So there's a number of Arab and, more broadly, Muslim countries that were part of this negotiating group.
But more specifically, there's three countries.
Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt that over the years have had a great deal of influence over Hamas.
They have supported Hamas in different capacities over the years.
And they all saw, for their own reasons, an opportunity to pressure Hamas because they wanted an end to the war.
The Turks would love to have greater cooperation, defense cooperation with the United States.
They want arms.
They want planes.
They want a better relationship with the Trump administration.
The Qataris also.
While they have a strong defense relationship with the United States, they also would like to have good relations with Trump administration and President Trump.
Recall that the Qataris gave Trump a new Air Force One.
Yes, the famous plane.
Yes.
And the Egyptians, who are the closest to Gaza, fear even more displacement of Palestinian refugees to Egypt.
And they very much, for their own security, would love an end to the war in Gaza.
So in each case these countries have their own self-interested reasons to get this peace deal done, to push toward it.
That's right.
And so what they did was work out a peace plan.
And they brought it to New York first to present to the Trump administration negotiating team right before the UN General Assembly.
So just recently?
Yeah, just recently.
It was September 20th when the prime minister of Qatar meets with Witkoff and Kushner to present this Arab plan, first of all saying they need assurances that Israel is not going to bomb Qatar again and also that this will be used as a sort of blueprint to push the Israelis towards ending the war.
And Trump seems very keen on the idea, this idea of a quote end-of-war plan, that this is going to be not just a ceasefire but actually to end the war.
So then, when everyone's in New York for the UN General Assembly—
Trump and Witkoff meet with the representatives of the Arab and Muslim governments and basically they agree to points of a peace plan.
And of course, the real question then was, what is Netanyahu going to do?
Right.
So at that point, the Americans and the Israelis are negotiating directly during these marathon sessions in New York.
And this takes place over several days in New York hotel rooms.
And during these sessions, Netanyahu repeatedly tries to massage language of some of the Israel's commitments and also to create loopholes that might make it appear that Hamas was violating the deal.
What ultimately emerges is a deal that is pretty favorable to Israel, so much that it created some anger on the Arab side that the Trump administration given away too much.
But some of that anger may have been softened by what happens the next day when Netanyahu and Trump meet at the White House.
And part of the deal is that Netanyahu has to call the Qatari prime minister and apologize for the September 9th strike.
Right, that photo came out where Trump was like holding the phone as Netanyahu made the call.
Yes, the White House put out the photo.
It was very clearly intentionally made to look like Trump was putting Netanyahu in his place.
By holding the phone, the court is stretching all the way to Netanyahu's ear.
Netanyahu doesn't look happy, neither does Trump.
And Netanyahu is apologizing for this ill-conceived strike.
So after the phone call, Trump and Netanyahu come out and announce the deal.
And, with typical Trump hyperbole, he calls it potentially one of the great days ever in civilization.
He's really going for it.
Yeah.
And, you know, Netanyahu is more measured, but everyone agrees that this is a major step.
And the next question is, would Hamas go for it?
And there are all sorts of reasons to think maybe they wouldn't.
Yeah, we covered this on the show.
It seemed like a long shot initially, right, that Hamas would agree to this.
They've been unmovable generally.
And as you said, the deal was seen to favor Israel.
That's right.
And there's some evidence that one of the reasons Netanyahu went along with this was because he was, you know, somewhat certain that Hamas wouldn't go along with it.
And yet, at the end of last week, Hamas gave a signal that it was actually willing to come to the table.
We'll be right back.
OK, what is that sign that Hamas is actually willing to play ball?
So late Friday of last week, Hamas put out a statement that it was willing to discuss a hostage deal if certain conditions were met.
And as we said at the beginning, the hostages are the single biggest point of negotiation.
So it was certainly a hopeful sign.
Everybody agrees to then meet this week in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt to negotiate whether in fact they can end the war.
And at the beginning of the week there was still plenty of skepticism that all the sides could come together.
But as the week went on, it seemed as if things were coming together.
Wednesday, Trump's at a public appearance on a totally different matter.
He's interrupted by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who hands him a note and whispers into his ear Yeah, I was just given a note by the Secretary of State saying that we're very close to a deal in the Middle East and they're going to need me pretty quickly.
And Trump says, I'm going to have to leave soon.
You know, it looks like a deal is happening.
Then President Trump posts on Truth Social that a deal has been reached.
Mr. President, wow.
If you would have asked me two years ago yesterday, if this was possible, I would have bet everything I had no.
Congratulations, sir.
Can you give us more of the details?
And he goes then on Hannity.
The whole world came together, to be honest.
So many countries that you wouldn't have even thought of it.
They came together.
The world has come together around this deal.
So that's where things stand now.
Trump has confirmed he's going to travel to Israel on Sunday and give a speech in front of the Knesset.
And the reaction in Israel and Gaza has been one of joy and relief and a sense of optimism that hasn't existed for two years, since the October 7th attacks.
And so all optimism is cautious optimism, but this does feel like it could be a turning point.
There is a sense that the hostages could be coming back, maybe as early as Sunday or early next week.
Mark, what you've described and what we're seeing unfold is genuinely an impressive feat by Trump to be able to capitalize on what seemed like this giant setback.
Israel literally bombed the negotiators and the mediators to turn that around and get a deal that Biden couldn't get done, that no other leader in the world had managed, despite trying for two years straight.
It is a significant achievement.
He was able to bring the sides together that had shown no willingness to end the war.
And now they've come to this agreement.
And it should also be said that one of the biggest things here is that he was willing to put pressure on Netanyahu in a way that President Biden was unwilling to do.
Why do you think that's the case?
I think there's a few reasons.
First, I think Trump genuinely wanted to end the war.
He campaigned on ending the war in Ukraine and in Gaza.
He hasn't ended the war in Ukraine.
And I think he was looking for a signature achievement.
And a Nobel Peace Prize, famously.
That's right.
He certainly does want that.
And he was also willing to put pressure on Netanyahu, because you know their relationship has been fraught over the years.
You know, Netanyahu famously in 2020 congratulated Joe Biden for winning the election and Trump's still mad about that.
And then coming to this year, when there were movements by Israel to go to war with Iran, Trump was trying to stop it at first.
Remember, the Republican Party isn't the same as it used to be.
And support for Israel and the Republican Party isn't a given.
There is a strain among Trump's base that thinks that America is too willing to support Israel in all of its endeavors, that it drags America into wars in the Middle East.
And some of those prominent voices in the Republican Party, you know, Trump listens to.
So it's not a given that an American president, now a Republican president, is going to necessarily reflexively back Israel.
And so that gave Trump leverage over Netanyahu because he was willing to push him.
That's interesting.
Do you think there's a way in which only a Republican president could actually credibly convince Netanyahu that he could actually lose American support?
Because if the Republicans stop supporting Israel, that's kind of it.
The Democratic Party has really seen support erode for Israel.
So he's lost everybody if he loses them.
That's right.
We've seen in the Democratic Party support for Israel splintering over the last two years, certainly with the protests on campuses and Democratic politicians coming out against Israel's war in Gaza.
You know, the Republican base on balance is more supportive of Israel.
And yet there are these powerful strains in the Republican Party that are not.
And nobody knows that more than Benjamin Netanyahu, who has built his entire political career in Israel on being the person who knows American politics the best.
And he knows that, no matter what European support might erode, what he knows is that all that really matters is the United States.
So he couldn't lose Trump in this.
Right.
Netanyahu is just keenly aware of how much he really needs American support.
He can't lose everyone.
He needs his most powerful friend.
Yeah, he needs Trump.
And I think that was part of the calculus here for why Netanyahu went along with this.
And Trump was clearly willing to use that leverage.
Do you think that's it?
Is that the story here?
Well, there's that, but then there's the other side of the negotiation as well, which is that the sort of key players in the Arab world in this— the Egyptians and the Qataris and the Saudis and the Emiratis they have a pretty good relationship with Trump.
And, as we said earlier, they need the United States, but also they kind of all speak the same language, right?
They're very transactional.
You know, they see Trump as a businessman and they do business deals.
And Jared Kushner has done business deals with them.
So it's a language that certainly they didn't have with the Biden White House.
So, for all the reasons that they saw the benefit of ending the war, they also had a relationship with the Trump White House that was, I think, conducive for this deal.
Mark, do we think that in this deal, in this deal-making, Trump outmaneuvered Netanyahu?
Like there have been several times over the last several months, where it seemed as though Netanyahu was the one leading Trump around.
That was the impression that we got after the Iran bombing, for example.
Has that dynamic switched now?
Or is it that the political realities for Netanyahu have just shifted so much that it made it easier for him to take this deal?
I think it's impossible to answer who outmaneuvered who at this point, because there is plenty here that is good for Benjamin Netanyahu.
This is a political victory for him at a time when he's looking to run again for another term as prime minister.
And if he can announce that he ended the war and got the hostages home and didn't have to pull out of Gaza entirely.
That's a big deal.
So these two players talking about Trump and Netanyahu are savvy enough that they're going to get what each one wants.
And they both had to give up some, but certainly Netanyahu got a fair amount out of this.
So Netanyahu can credibly claim a pretty big victory in at least part of this.
What about Hamas?
Why did they decide to come to the table right now after all this time?
Gazans have obviously suffered so much and Hamas hasn't budged before.
So why now?
So we talked about the pressure that they were under from their benefactors, right?
The Qataris and the Turks.
But the big question here, of course, was why give up the only leverage really they have, which was the hostages right?
And what do they have once they give up the hostages?
And I think it's still a big question whether they see that this is living to fight another day, that there is still Hamas support in, for instance, the West Bank.
They might be unpopular in Gaza, but there is rising popularity for Hamas in the West Bank and that they still are carrying the mantle of Palestinian nationalism, so that they can cut this deal and still be the champions of the Palestinian cause.
But that all still remains to be seen.
When we talk about Hamas living to fight another day, is what we're saying here that this group was really backed into a corner, like they had no better option.
That these fighters saw that this was really the end of the road for them.
Well, if you think about what's happened in the last two years right, almost all of the planners of the October 7th attacks are dead.
Gaza is decimated.
Hamas, at least the senior leadership of Hamas, is destroyed.
They have smaller and smaller parts of Gaza that they're in control of.
So it is possible that they thought this was the best thing they could get and still preserve Hamas for the future.
OK, so let's for a moment consider a situation in which everything does work out and the two sides reach a deal on the things that remain unsettled.
The withdrawal parameters, the governance of Gaza post-war, whether Hamas will disarm.
Let's say they resolve that.
Should we think that would actually end the war?
Do we think both sides would actually stick to the terms that they agreed to in that case?
The unfortunate fact is that the history suggests otherwise, right?
I mean, Hamas and Israel have been at war with each other for decades.
And there have been occasional outbreaks of a hot war over the years that we've been in, by far the worst one over the last two years.
But, you know, Hamas and Israel are avowed enemies.
And there's nothing in certainly, the disposition of Hamas, which believes in the end of Israel, to suggest that they're necessarily going to change ideologically, fundamentally change.
Right.
So there's plenty of, unfortunately, reasons to think that this isn't necessarily the end.
And yet...
You know, in this sort of grim history that we're outlining, there are moments when there is optimism, and this may be one of them.
And I think it's important to pause and acknowledge that, in order to have a hope for the future of rebuilding, et cetera, you have to stop killing each other.
And hopefully that's where we are right now.
Mark, thanks for coming on the show.
Thank you.
We'll be right back.
Here's what else you need to know today.
The Justice Department secured the indictment of New York Attorney General Letitia James on bank fraud and false statement charges after President Trump publicly demanded that she be charged.
James, a Democrat, has been one of Trump's most high-profile opponents for years and brought a civil case against him for fraudulently inflating his assets in order to bolster the value of his net worth.
The investigation of James focused on two homes that she owned in Norfolk, Virginia and in Brooklyn, after a housing official suggested that she may have falsified records related to them.
These charges are baseless and the president's own public statements make clear that his only goal is political retribution at any cost.
And a federal judge in Illinois issued a temporary restraining order blocking the Trump administration's deployment of National Guard troops in the Chicago area.
The judge said she'd seen no credible evidence that there's a danger of a rebellion in the state of Illinois.
Her order is in effect for 14 days and is worded to prevent officials from sending in troops from another state.
It was not immediately clear what would happen with the troops already mobilized and deployed in Illinois.
Today's episode was produced by Ricky Nowetzki, Alex Stern, and Stella Tan.
It was edited by Chris Haxel, with help from Paige Cowett and Lisa Chow.
Fact-checked by Susan Lee.
Contains music by Pat McCusker, Rowan Nemistow, Dan Powell, and Marion Lozano.
And was engineered by Chris Wood.
That's it for The Daily.
I'm Natalie Ketroef.
See you tomorrow.
