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Hello and welcome to World Business Report here on the BBC World Service.
I'm Rahul Tandon, plenty coming up in the program.
As always, we'll hear from a US businessman who voted for Donald Trump, how a terrorist affecting his company, and the Canadian steel industry sends a message to the country's new Prime Minister, Mark Carney.
We will be talking to our government about not escalating but resolving the trade war.
How will they do that?
We will try and find out but we're going to devote quite a lot of the programme looking at Donald Trump's first 100 days in power during which he's talked a lot about tariffs.
In a few moments I will sign a historic executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world reciprocal that means they do it to us and we do it to them.
We have haven't been been talking a lot about tariffs over the last 100 days.
Let's see what some voters across the United States have to say about how President Trump is doing after that period.
I stand behind my vote.
He ain't gonna get everything right.
Nobody can do that.
I stand with my vote.
All the things he said he was going to do he's done so far.
I don't know how many of them are actually gonna work because of the way our country is set up.
But maybe that's the goal, is to change where our country is running.
I like the tariffs.
I have four grandkids, and yeah, it's gonna hurt us a little bit now, but in the long run, it's gonna be all -American.
Buy American, be an American.
We voted for this. You know, and our friends that didn't vote the same, you know, there's always that back and forth conversation now, it's like, you knew this was coming, but we didn't.
Like, nobody that I've talked to understood the devastation that having this administration in office would do to our lives.
Now during this hundred days, there's been a lot of changes to policies.
At times, one has to say, it has been quite hard to keep up.
But guiding us through it has been our North of America business correspondent, Erin Delmore.
What consumers want to know is our price is going to go up.
And if the tariffs remain in effect, as President Trump has put them forward, that is the You know, he did issue a 90 -day pause on some of the higher tariffs that we've seen, but that doesn't include things like steel and aluminum, which make up so many component parts of other goods.
He says that his administration is working on negotiating different tariff deals with different countries.
And in the meantime, a 10 percent rate remains in effect with those countries.
So, Rahul, if it sounds like it's a moving target, it's because covering it, it does feel like a moving target day -to -day, moment -to -moment.
What we really look ahead to now as reporters is the influx of goods into the United States, have the higher tariffs, call shipping partners to stop sending goods.
And of course, there are reports out of different ports in the United States, specifically the Port of Los Angeles is making headlines lately about cargo ships arriving with fewer goods on boards and major retailers warning that they could be seeing empty shelves.
This is the kind of thing that we look to next.
How is this affecting what consumers can get their hands on?
and then the next chapter is at what price can consumers get their hands on goods?
And a lot of that is to do with the trading relationship with the other huge economy in the world, China.
He's taken a very tough stance on China in that first 100 days.
Will you be able to maintain that?
It's an interesting position to be in right now for each of the countries, because these two global economies are very intricately intertwined.
A lot of US goods sold here, goods sold in the US, I should say, are manufactured in China or component pieces come from China into the United States and vice versa.
And, you know, Americans, for our part, I'll speak to you from where I sit in New York City, have become accustomed to being able to get goods cheaply and quickly.
A lot of that comes in from China.
And the really interesting thing here, from my purview covering these tariffs, is that a lot of companies did move their production out of China, anticipating that President Trump might have this tough on China stance, something that he really telegraphed on the campaign trail and something that he went forward with during his own first term in office and moved production to other countries that did in fact get targeted with tariffs when President Trump came out on April 2nd with his new slate of tariffs.
And so you know there's a bit of a contagion effect there's also a question of whether China finds other trading partners other countries that were trading with the US do more trade with China.
It's almost like everything has a reaction you know nothing occurs just in a vacuum.
So while we're looking to see if, as President Trump says, the U .S. and China can strike some kind of a deal to lower tariff rates and really resume that flow of trade between the two countries.
We're also looking at where the trade goes in the absence of that relationship.
Erin Delmore explaining that.
That quite a lot has been going on.
Let's bring in George Conway chairman Brighton Securities in the U .S. You know we've had lots of changes to policies.
We've had the reciprocal tariffs, they've been put on hold for 90 days.
Now you know we've seen Donald Trump sign an executive order granting carmakers some relief from those tariffs that were put in place will they be happy with that do you think?
Well I think you're always happy when you stop hitting your head against a brick wall.
It feels good to stop hitting your head.
The question is why did you hit your head in the first place?
So sure they'll be happy but it's it's not ideal.
Okay and let's talk about the stock market the worst hundred days for U .S. stock market since Gerald Ford. That's not good either is it?
George. Right it's not although the markets are very different.
There we go George was just about to tell us what was happening with the market.
Some shares were overvalued.
So there's a correction we've had.
Not terrible so far this year.
Single digits for the Dow and the S &P.
Just double digits barely for the Nasdaq.
we don't like to see it down but it's not the end of the world.
There we go, and George did come back.
So stay with us George we're going to get lots more of your thoughts during the program.
Well as we said there, trade and tariffs have been the biggest talking point in President Trump's first 100 days in office as he looks to shake up how America does business with the rest of the world.
Stephen Vaughan was the acting trade representative when Donald Trump was in office last time and he told me what he makes of the introduction of tariffs this time round.
He's always had the belief that we should have stronger tariffs.
And I think he saw an opportunity to put these measures into place here at the beginning of the term.
And I'm not surprised that he took advantage of that opportunity.
He's talked, hasn't he, about short -term pain that the American economy is going to face.
Has he underestimated that pain?
No, I don't think so.
I mean, I think if you look at the overall economic numbers are still looking strong.
Markets have been going up here in the last few days.
And I think he's, you know, he has a very, very good sense of sort of how the voters feel about these things and how the economy works.
And, and I think you're seeing them, you know, making, you know, you know, adjustments as necessary.
And I think, I think they're going to get in a very good place.
You talk that about that good sense.
All the opinion polls seem to say Americans have never been so worried about their economy, that fear of recession seems to be growing every day.
I mean, polls go up and down.
And I think history shows that successful leaders are the ones who can persuade the country to go in the direction that they want it to go.
And I think he's had a lot of success in this.
He's been in our political system now at the very top of the system for nine years.
He's won a lot more battles than he's lost, and And I think he's going to win this one, too.
Whenever we speak to businesses, they talk about confusion in policy.
We just had another change in the automobile tariffs that's been announced.
That is the problem, isn't it?
Nobody knows with any certainty what's happening.
Well, I think you have to understand that this is basically a situation where you're trying to get companies to change some of their approaches.
You're trying to get them to hire more Americans than they would hire otherwise.
You're trying to get them to pay those Americans more than they would pay otherwise.
It's an ongoing negotiation between the White House and the business community.
Of course, anytime you're in a negotiation, it's never in your interest to let the other person see all of your cards or all of your intentions.
I think that the president is obviously going to ...
I think he's listening to the business community.
I think he's also talking to the business community.
And, you know, my guess is that we're headed in a direction that will result in a stronger and more robust middle class.
You talk about negotiations, you were involved with those trade negotiations with China.
Has Donald Trump got it wrong here?
Because it seems that he's the one now looking for a deal whilst the Chinese are holding strong.
Oh, I don't think I don't see that at all.
I think what the president has made clear is, is that he would like to do a deal if it's a good deal for the United States.
And I think that was his position in the first term.
I think as the secretary of the treasury pointed out last week when he spoke to the IMF, China, their economy is out of balance.
They are producing more goods than they can possibly consume and disrupting markets around the world.
So I think it would be in their interest and I think it would be in everybody's interest if these accounts could be more balanced.
but you know at the end of the day I think it's up to President Xi and he'll have to decide whether he wants to continue with the system that he's got or whether he's willing to make some changes.
You have been involved in negotiating trade deals.
They take some time don't they?
Is 90 days enough? Well it depends on what you're trying to do.
You can certainly establish some basic principles in 90 days and you can certainly you know make some commitments.
Remember we're not But it's not like you're trying to do a complete free trade agreement here.
You're trying to show they have identified very specific unfair trading practices abroad that are making it impossible for American companies to compete on a level playing field and they're looking for commitments that those unfair trading practices are going to be changed.
Everybody they're talking to knows what the Americans want.
We've been having these conversations with them for decades.
It's just a question of them making a political decision on their end, whether they're, you know, ready to actually have a more level playing field in terms of their trade with the United States.
How would you sum up the first hundred days of the Donald Trump presidency?
When it comes to the economy?
I think it's a very exciting beginning.
I think that he was elected to to create a stronger position for middle class Americans, the people who've been forgotten, the people who've been left behind.
And I think he's putting policies in place that are going to work for those people.
And I think it was a success in the first term and I think it's going to be a success this time.
Stephen Rowan says it's been an exciting time.
Let's hear from a businessman who voted for Donald Trump.
What have they made of the tariff talks in the first 100 days?
I've been speaking to Isaac Larian, founder and Chief Executive of MGA Entertainment, the world's largest privately owned toy company.
I don't want to be very dramatic, but I can say it's disastrous.
It's disastrous. Our sales will drop 30 -40 percent and you're going to see a lot of empty shelves come this fall.
You're going to see many, many children not having toys under the Christmas tree or if They have toys that are going to be very expensive.
And these children are going to remember.
You run the largest toy factory in the US, don't you, in Ohio?
So as a business, you were planning to expand that factory, weren't you?
Are you still going to expand it?
Are you having to put plans on hold?
Yes, you're right. We have the largest toy manufacturers in America, in Hudson, Ohio, which employs 700 people.
We were planning to increase that facility by 220 ,000 square feet and hire more workers.
That plan is on hold.
We also purchased 575 acres of land in California, where we were planning to make that the toy manufacturing up of America.
Bringing in MGA and many and many other toy companies to make toys here, and that is on hold.
Can I ask you, why is it on hold?
Surely if you're not going to bring in so much from China, that the president's rationale is, you'll build more in the US.
So if you're not gonna bring so much in from China, why don't you build more in the US?
You know, money doesn't grow on trees, at least in California.
And we need to have profit, which we were planning to, from our import of toys, to invest in these expansions.
And that money is not gonna be available right now.
And frankly, is gonna have a reverse effect if it's not changed immediately and we will end up not only putting these factories on hold.
We have to lay off people.
You voted for Donald Trump, didn't you?
Do you regret that decision though?
I voted for him. No, I don't regret it because the other party was frankly even worse.
And I truly believe that Donald Trump cares for America and its success.
but right now I think he's being advised by some wrong people especially a guy named Peter Navarro.
Peter Navarro is one of his most senior advisors when it comes to the economy and manufacturing.
Let's be very clear, in terms of your business do you now worry about the future of your business?
Of course I'm very worried.
I am an immigrant who came here in 1971 with $753 dollars an American dream.
I built this company from washing dishes to where it is now and I never thought I have to worry about the future of my company, my family, and my employees and their families and I am now.
We've heard President Trump being slightly more conciliatory towards China.
It looks like he may want to strike a deal.
Do you expect that to happen soon?
And how soon does it have to happen for your business?
Donald Trump is a very intelligent man very smart he understands business and he's been in business and he knows that these tariffs 145 percent is not sustainable he knows that and I believe I expect him that he will make a change I just hope it's not too late Well, what is too late for you?
Two weeks from now it's too late.
It's over. When you say over, what do you mean by over?
Bringing toys for Christmas is going to be over.
Making toys is not like a water hose in your backyard that you can turn on and off.
These big Chinese factories are shutting down, or laying off skilled workers.
And we are in May. The product has to be manufactured and shipped in May and June to make Christmas.
Isaac, Larry in there, George Comboy still with us.
We're seeing a lot of companies, GM, General Motors, the latest one, who are suspending that forward advice they normally give because they're so uncertain about the future they can't predict it, can they George?
Right across the board you're seeing quarterly earnings estimates being retracted or suspended.
companies don't want to predict in an environment that's very hard to predict.
Can't blame them. You can get in touch with us on WhatsApp.
Send us a voice note plus 44 -330 -6783033.
We'd love to hear what you've made of the first 100 days of Donald Trump in power.
You're with World Business Report from the BBC World Service.
Asking the right questions can greatly impact your future, especially when it comes to your finances.
So if you're looking for a financial advisor you can trust, certified financial planner professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. That's why it's gotta be a CFP.
Find your CFP professional at LetsMakeAPlan .org.
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Now, last night with Davina on this program on Will Business Report, Canadians were voting for their next government.
Now they know who their next prime minister will be.
It's Mark Carney who's promised to take a tough stance when it comes to trade negotiations with Donald Trump.
The system of open global trade anchored by the United States, a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that while not perfect, has helped deliver prosperity for a country for decades is over.
We are over. We are over the shock of the American betrayal but we should never forget the lessons.
This is how Canadians reacted to the result.
We are Canadians, we are strong, we are proud and we're not for sale Mr Trump.
The position that he took against Trump I think has been exactly what Canadians want, Canadians need right now and that's probably the main thing that they're thinking about right now.
I think the outcome was good and I think we're going to take a pretty harsh stand against the US and I think the rest of the world is going to do the same.
Now I'm sure many of you remember Donald Trump has put tariffs of twenty five per cent on steel and aluminium.
Canada is the largest exporter of both those products to the United States.
So to get some more details of the impact of those policies have been having I spoke to Catherine Cobden, president and CEO of the Canadian Steel Producers Association.
It's been, I think, 49 days since we've had the tariffs in place and we just continue to see the impacts mounting.
We've had, you know, hundreds of job losses already, but also decisions to defer investments until there's a more certain understanding of the situation.
We've had customers delay the decisions to place orders, we've had to pull back production and some lines, for example, too because of that circumstance.
So it is an ongoing buildup of impacts.
So what exactly should Mark Carney do here?
Is it being tough with Donald Trump?
Is it flying straightaway and going and having conversations with him?
What does he need to do?
We are looking for him to act most urgently where he has full control of the agenda, which is right here in Canada.
By that I mean we would like to see Mark Carney institute stronger measures at the Canadian border, which we believe he can do immediately.
When you say stronger measures at the Canadian border, what do you mean by that?
We mean we have significant, and unfairly traded steel that enters our market from jurisdictions that practice these unfair traded practices.
So for example, very low wages, undercutting our steel prices, zero regard for environmental performance.
Are you talking about China here?
Certainly China's a major player.
There are others as well.
Canada has taken action against Chinese steel in our market.
But we need to do more of that.
so that we're capturing more fully the unfair trade that's going on in our market.
And all that does is level the playing field for domestic producers.
It doesn't give us a hand up.
It just gives us a fighting chance to win the business across the country.
OK, that is what he should do with those countries, the likes of China, there.
But specifically on the US, how do you tackle that problem?
How you tackle that problem is demonstrating nothing that we share the same concerns on steel trade.
There's a lot of things going on by the U .S. They have taken action on many fronts, but there are some areas that are strategic to them that are very important, and steel is one of them.
We need to demonstrate to the U .S. that we are as tough on unfair steel as they are, and that we have aligned policies.
When I say take measures at the border, I mean ultimately not only to help our domestic industry and our market in Canada, but also to help with our relationship with the United States.
So I do hope ultimately that we can develop again a constructive relationship with our largest trading partner in steel.
They need us and we need them, we have a highly integrated steel trade.
So that's where we're ultimately going.
But I think the first step might be for Canada to show just how serious it is and take that to Donald Trump and really help with advancing the conversation.
You're clearly saying don't escalate tensions with the US.
We're not looking for escalation.
We're looking for resolution.
We're not going to be able to do this through market diversification and internal trade measures alone, right?
We do need to recognise that US Canada has an important future trade relationship.
It might not be as big as it was, but it is important to both sides of the border that we basically get back to some semblance of trade between our nations that's not in a terror for that is really interesting because the BBC spoke to a Canadian minister today who said hey if the US isn't there we'll just take our products elsewhere to Europe to other parts of the world you're saying that's not possible for steel I think that might be possible for other products but in steel it's very difficult for one thing there's a lot of steel in the world so there's way too much steel you have long -standing
relationships with customers both in Canada and the United States, we're not going to be able to pivot to other markets, even good trading partners like the EU for example, or the UK for example, we're not going to be able to pivot and have that immediately in place.
We definitely and still believe the US is a long term market for us.
It might be smaller, but we really need it in the long run.
So yes, we will be talking to our government about not escalating, but resolving the trade war.
George, really interesting to hear those views there because Canada has voted hasn't it for a prime minister to take a strong stance with Donald Trump, but Catherine Cobden they're saying quite clearly that's not a stance one of its largest industry once followed. No, absolutely not.
Look at the Canadian election, it's the second upset for Donald Trump.
Who in the world would have believed the Canadians would vote for the Liberal Party after what they've done the last 10 years of the Canadian economy but they did that's an upset they're not going to have an easy time with steel selling around the world they make a premium product we have bought that product in the US it's a good product Canadians are good trading partners but they won't find it easy to trade elsewhere that's a problem for Canada and a problem for US manufacturers.
We have on this program been trying to paint a picture of how Americans have been responding to the huge economic changes that Donald Trump has announced in his first 100 days in power of course, most of that related to that tariff policy.
Our North of America correspondent, Nomiya Iqbal, is in Texas.
We've come to San Antonio.
It's a business city that has been hit by tariffs.
But go to the local supermarkets.
And there's only one thing on people's minds.
Brochures are very high.
All of my stuff that I buy is up higher.
The 100 days she's been in there's been terrible.
The cost of living right now is a lot.
Clothing, gas, especially gas right now, you know it's ridiculous.
So we're having to kinda like, you know, work a tight budget, just to be able to go shopping.
So everything's kinda expensive.
President Trump says he's going to bring the cost of groceries down.
I hope so. Yes, he's doing a great job.
Right now it feels a little shaky, you know the stock market and everything kind of you know plunge in a little bit But he says that's just temporary.
They'll go back up everything would be back to normal President Trump has brought the tide of change he promised although, it's more like a tsunami Americans have given him a historically low approval rating of 41 percent But there's little sign he will change course as he continues to try and bend America to his will Namia Iqbal there reporting from Texas, of course, one of the most important states.
Now Donald Trump at the moment is in Michigan.
You can hear a bit of YMCA, people in the crowd dancing to that.
Why has he gone there?
Well, he's obviously gone there because it is such an important part of the US manufacturing sector, the sector that he is trying to revive.
And of course, it is home to the car industry.
George what do you think Donald Trump is gonna try and say to those car workers then because he's promising to bring those jobs back but as we heard earlier in the program from Isaac Larian who runs a big factory that is not that easy right not easy at all but those workers wanna hear that their jobs will stay here Trump's a politician in this regard and people will listen to what they want to hear so if they're told what they want to hear they'll often believe it And I think there's a reasonable chance that the people who voted for change are going to be willing to wait for that change.
The question is we don't know whether the change they voted for is the change they're going to get.
It's been quite the first 100 days of Donald Trump in power.
Is the next 100 days going to be as eventful when it comes to economic policy, George?
We hope the next 100 days will be better.
The last 100? Well, they weren't fabulous.
but we also have to remember they weren't as bad as everyone seemed to think.
People think the world is ending because in those first hundred days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S &P were down by 7 % each. I don't want markets to be down 7%.
But 7 % doesn't make me wanna throw myself under a train.
I'm not too worried about it.
We'll give it some time to see if it works out.
George, thanks so much for joining us here.
On the program, we of course will bring you what Donald Trump says in Michigan, in business matters.
Maybe know YMCA in that program, but let's see what he says about economic policies.
You know, some people say that ODU business management software is like fertilizer, the way it promotes growth and all.
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