President Trump insists the economy is thriving.
We're getting inflation, we're crushing it, and you're getting much higher wages.
So how does he explain why so many voters view the economy negatively?
I'm Michelle Martin, that's Leila Fadl, and this is Up First from NPR News.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates today, but members of the Fed's rate-setting committee are divided on whether to make the call.
Will concerns over inflation keep rates as is, or will unemployment worries prompt another cut?
Plus, the unraveling of the Afghan man accused of gunning down two National Guard members.
He was in a military unit that worked with the CIA in Afghanistan, and he wasn't the only one struggling with his mental health as a result.
We get into why so many feel abandoned by the CIA.
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President Trump told a rally crowd in Pennsylvania Tuesday night that he has no higher priority than making America affordable again.
They cause the high prices and we're bringing them down.
It's a simple message.
If I had one message tonight, you know, this is being covered like all over the world.
This is crazy because I haven't made a speech in a little while.
You know, when you win, when you win, you say, oh, I can now rest.
He talked about a whole lot of other things, too.
And NPR senior White House correspondent, Tamara Keith, is here to help us decipher what the president had to say.
Good morning, Tam.
Good morning.
So did the president have some new message or some policy prescriptions for Americans who are upset about the high cost of living?
The banners on the stage said, lower prices, bigger paychecks.
And that was the message in essence.
Trump insists prices are coming down and brought up on the stage a handful of people who stand to benefit from the tax cuts he signed into law earlier this year.
There were no new policies and not a lot of new material.
But if you go to see the village people, you'd be disappointed not to hear YMCA.
So Trump spent much of this 90-minute speech going through the greatest hits, talking about how members of his cabinet are straight out of central casting, denigrating Somali immigrants. weaving all over the place, joking about how it would be boring if he stuck to the teleprompter and occasionally making it back to the economy.
Lower prices, bigger paychecks.
We're getting inflation.
We're crushing it.
And you're getting much higher wages.
I mean, the only thing that's really going up big, it's called the stock market and your 401ks.
It's going up.
Okay, that might be true.
Stock values are up.
But a lot of people, actually more than a third of Americans, don't have money in the stock market.
Yeah.
And as our friends at Marketplace always say, the stock market is not the economy.
A recent Fox News poll found three quarters of voters view the economy negatively and two to one they blame Trump for the current economy, rather than former President Biden.
The economy used to be Trump's strength, but at the moment it's a major weakness, and Democrats are certainly making the most of it.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro posted on social media that Trump spent his speech, quote, telling Pennsylvanians not to believe what they can see with their own two eyes, the skyrocketing cost of living and rising prices at the grocery store.
So how is the president squaring the sour mood that voters are in with his pitch that he has ushered in a golden age for this country?
He's not really.
Take this from an interview he did this week with Politico's Dasha Burns.
I wonder what grade you would give.
A plus.
A plus.
A plus, plus, plus, plus, plus.
You know, Trump typically has strong instincts for appealing to his base, but he does risk looking out of touch here.
And how does he respond when confronted with those concerns?
Last night, yet again, he mocked the preoccupation with affordability.
They have a new word.
You know, they always have a hoax.
The new word is affordability.
He says that he inherited a mess.
In other words, don't blame me, blame the former guy.
And he says things are already cheaper.
In particular, he talks a lot about gas prices.
According to Gas Buddy, prices are down about eight cents on average a gallon from a year ago.
But that's not really enough savings to make up for higher grocery prices and utility bills and the health care costs.
That is NPR's Tamara Keith.
Tam, thank you.
You're welcome.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates today, but the path to that decision could be bumpy.
Yeah, the central bank is trying to keep a lid on both inflation and unemployment.
And members of the Fed's rate-setting committee are divided over which of those goals is more urgent.
NPR's Scott Horsey is with us now to tell us more about this.
Good morning, Scott.
Good morning.
So why do forecasters expect a rate cut today?
We have seen a real slowdown in the job market in recent months, and a number of Fed policymakers are very concerned about that.
Over the summer, we saw a net loss of jobs in both June and August.
The unemployment rate has been inching up.
Fed Governor Chris Waller has been saying for months now the warning signs are flashing on the job market and the central bank should lower interest rates to prevent a further deterioration.
The labor market is still weak and near stall speed.
The Fed already cut its benchmark interest rate in September and October, and a third cut would make it a little bit cheaper to borrow money.
So consumers might spend a bit more and businesses in turn might need to hire more people.
So that's the argument for cutting rates, but it sounds like it's not a slam dunk.
It's not because we've still got the specter of inflation out there.
That's the other part of the Fed's job.
And some policymakers think getting prices under control is a bigger concern right now than the softening job market.
Prices are still climbing faster than the Fed would like.
Just yesterday, we got some survey data showing that a lot of small businesses are raising prices.
There's concern that the president's tariffs will continue to push prices up in the new year.
Susan Collins, who heads the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, voted for rate cuts in both September and October, but she says the bar is pretty high before she would vote for a third cut this week.
Absent evidence of a notable labor market deterioration, I'd be hesitant to ease policy further, especially given the limited information on inflation due to the government shutdown.
Because of that six-week shutdown, we don't know what the unemployment rate was in October and we don't know what the inflation rate was that month, because the federal workers who were furloughed were unable to gather that data.
What's more, the numbers for November, which the Fed would ordinarily have in its hands at this meeting, won't come out until next week.
So policymakers are in a bit of a handicap here, as they try to steer the economy through thicker than usual fog.
How unusual is it to have this much division on the rate-setting committee?
You know, the Fed likes to operate by consensus.
It's not uncommon to have some disagreement, but it is unusual to have a lot and, in particular, to have disagreement in both directions.
At the last Fed meeting we had two dissents one from a committee member who thought the Fed was cutting rates too aggressively and another who thought the Fed wasn't moving fast enough.
It's been six years since there were three dissents on a Fed vote and it's been 33 years since there were four dissents.
It's possible we could see that many today.
And before we let you go, should we look for more rate cuts in the future?
President Trump is certainly calling for more, but we'll see.
Fed officials will update their forecast today of where they think interest rates are likely to go next year.
Back in September, the average Fed policymaker was projecting only one quarter point rate cut in 2026.
We'll see if that outlook has changed at all.
Right now, investors think there is a better than even chance that we could see more rate cuts next year.
That is NPR's Scott Horsley.
Scott, thank you.
You're welcome.
A community of Afghan soldiers who fought against the Taliban for the CIA now feel abandoned by the agency.
One member of that community, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, is accused of shooting two National Guard soldiers last month.
NPR spoke to people involved in the zero units and learned some have struggled with mental health since coming to the US.
At least four soldiers have died by suicide.
NPR's Brian Mann has our exclusive reporting this morning.
Good morning, Brian.
Good morning, Michelle.
Lakanwal was part of an Afghan zero unit.
What does that mean?
These were Afghan special forces fighting against the Taliban, but they didn't work for Afghanistan's government.
They worked directly for the CIA.
They were led by CIA operatives.
I spoke with Gita Bakshi.
She's a former CIA agent who spent four years in Afghanistan, often working with these zero-unit troops.
These guys were the tip of the spear.
They were out on the front so that American personnel didn't have to be.
They were the ones that were facing the maximum danger on the battlefield and taking the maximum risk due to their affiliation with US intelligence.
And their tactics were often brutal.
Groups like Human Rights Watch accused them of engaging in torture and illegal killings.
Thousands of these zero-unit soldiers, including Lachenwal, were evacuated to the US in 2021 after the Taliban took control of Afghanistan.
You have learned that many of these zero-unit fighters are struggling.
Why is that?
NPR reported last week Michelle, that before the attack in Washington DC, Lackinwall appeared to be experiencing a personal crisis.
He's since pleaded not guilty to murder and other crimes.
Now people involved in these units tell me that many of Lackinwall's fellow Zero Unit fighters have felt similar stress and isolation and despair.
They describe feeling betrayed and abandoned by the CIA after years of that frontline combat service experience.
They expected to be treated with respect in the U.S., given a chance to start new lives here.
Instead, they found themselves tangled in a complicated immigration process, often stuck without permanent asylum or work visas for years.
And I spoke about this with one zero-unit fighter named Daoud.
It's like that feeling of like you did something, but nobody is appreciating.
And the promise that was given to you by your employer was a fake promise.
Now, Daboud agreed to speak with NPR if we agreed to only use his first name.
He said he fears for the safety of his family still living in Afghanistan under the Taliban.
He told me, when zero-unit fighters living in the US reached out to the CIA for help, they often got no response.
NPR also reached out to the CIA and the U.S.
Citizenship and Immigration Services to ask about all this.
Both agencies declined to comment.
You found that some of these zero-unit fighters grew so frustrated they threatened to harm themselves.
What's your sense of how widespread this is?
Yeah, people who've been working with these Afghan soldiers say it's been really widespread.
Dawood told me he's scrambled repeatedly to help fellow soldiers who feel hopeless, but he said some didn't make it.
Poor people took their lives.
We usually do a religious funeral for them just on their behalf, saying a prayer.
But yeah, unfortunately, this happened.
And Gita Bakshi, the former CIA agent, she now leads an aid group for Afghans called FAMIL.
She says her organization also started working to prevent suicides as early as 2023.
Individuals from the zero units unfortunately suffer death by self-harm.
We raised this issue to the Biden administration, and it was one that we were very concerned about.
Again, we saw a direct connection to prolonged immigration delays.
And now again Michelle, these zero-unit fighters and their families are facing new fear and uncertainty.
The immigration process for all Afghans has been frozen by the Trump administration because of the Lackinwall case.
Afghan refugees are being vetted once again and President Trump has suggested many of these zero-unit fighters may not be allowed to stay in the US.
That is NPR's Brian Mann.
Brian, thank you.
Thank you, Michelle.
And let me mention that if you or someone you know is in crisis, call or text the Suicide and Crisis Lifeline at 988.
That's 988.
And that's up first for Wednesday, December 10th.
I'm Michelle Martin.
And I'm Leila Faudel.
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