Discussions keeps the world turning.
This is Round Table.
Degrees in hand. Young professionals are hitting back to school, but this time for trade skills.
With job markets shifting, let's explore why more workers are adding hands -on expertise to their academic credentials.
And whether is hiring someone to climb a mountain with you or to assemble the latest LEGO set, stand -in economy is booming, stay tuned to find out why.
Coming to you live from Beijing, this is Round Table.
I'm He Young. For today's program, I'm joined by Steve Hatherly and Yu Shan.
First on today's show.
The value of a four -year college degree is once again under scrutiny.
Degree inflation. When degrees lose their impact as more people attain higher education makes it tough for graduates to stand out.
Often called degree devaluation or depreciation, this trend has surprisingly led some workers to skip master's degrees and instead pursue vocational training for practical skills and trade certification.
Why are young professionals pivoting to trade schools for career security?
And let's go to you first, Yu Shan.
So why are we seeing this happen?
I think the main reason lies in one phrase you just mentioned, He Young, which is degree inflation.
Because when we hear inflation, it's actually a term that's closely related to the law of supply and demand.
Because as the supply of something increase, the value decreases.
So the same theory applies to the job or rather the labor market nowadays.
So it was reported by the Xinhua news agency that last year, the number of college graduates in 2024.
Well, it's estimated that in 2024, the number of college graduates is well expected to reach nearly 11 .8 million.
We're talking about almost 12 million young people entering job or workforce.
And where are they flowing to?
And also according to the 2023 graduate student employment research report released by JALpin .com, which is one of the leading online recruitment platforms here in China.
The relationship between educational qualification and job hunting progress for graduates is not entirely proportional.
So what I'm saying is, it doesn't necessarily mean that you have such a high educational background could just directly lead you to a more successful job position.
And sometimes it's quite the opposite because data shows that college degree by that, I mean, vocational training degree and on the contrary, masters or PhD graduates have a higher offer rate than just merely bachelor's degree students.
So all of which are triggering bachelor degree holders to try to just switch to another career lane and look for bigger and better opportunities.
Yeah. And I think it kind of makes sense.
And you're right, it's a supply and demand thing.
And maybe 50, 60 years ago, if somebody had an undergraduate degree from University XYZ, the potential job opportunities would be plenty because you might be in the minority for having an undergraduate degree.
And it was like that, I think, for a period of time.
And then all of a sudden people started to get masters degrees.
And when people got master's degrees, again, you were in the minority.
The bar was raised a little bit, but then other people started getting master's degrees.
And then all of a sudden there's more fish in the pool, so to speak.
And then that's what we're talking about when we talk about degree devaluation.
It's just that there are more people holding the same degrees, masters or undergraduate degrees that makes it a lot more competitive and it devalues the degree.
And that's a very tough pill to swallow for young people who have achieved that level of education.
Because number one, they've invested a lot of money into that degree.
They've invested a lot of time into that degree.
And what they want is a reward.
They want something that guarantees a solid future for them.
They are not necessarily finding that.
And hence we're seeing the trend of moving in a different direction to acquire further skills.
And I wonder how much of that story that you've painted the picture for us rings a bell in Canada or the U .S.
and how much of it is capturing what's happening here in China?
Let me just give you a little bit more of the background here in China.
Yes, if you were talking about, oh, that generation who went to university in the 1970s, then, yes, they were the...
They were the chosen ones.
They were really the cream of the crop in terms of talent in Chinese society.
Back then, there were only, let's say, maybe one, two, three, six, six digits of graduates a year.
And then as time moves on, let's say to the turn of the century in China, then gradually we saw this widening of enrollment in Chinese universities as so many of these educational institutions expanded their campuses, enrollment as such.
And then now, like 20 years later or plus, we see that now holding a bachelor degree in this country is simply pretty normal.
And then also we need to talk about whether in the job market there are these office jobs that match the skill set of these graduates and that becomes a problem.
But in the U .S. or in the U .K.
or I'm not so sure about Canada, the situation, is it similar?
I know one thing is different is that student tuition is so much more expensive than what we pay here in China, and that's a huge financial burden for college graduates.
Oh, it absolutely is.
I mean, New York University, NYU is...
And to be fair, NYU is not one of the cheaper schools in the United States.
It's a quality school and it's an expensive school.
I looked it up and it cost $63 ,000 per year.
That's $449 ,000 yuan annually to study at NYU.
Add that up over four years, takes four and a bit years to graduate from NYU.
That's $261 ,000. That's 1 .8 million yuan invested in your education.
Now, according to the Outcome Survey from NYU, 93 .6 % for the class of 2020 was able to move on to a bigger piece of the pie, if you will, some more success.
The Outcome Rate is the total number of graduates who secured a position or enrollment in continuing education.
That's from the NYU website.
But still, looking at cost alone, just four years of university, $261 ,000, 1 .8 million yuan.
That's a big decision you're making when you're deciding to invest that amount of time, that amount of energy, and that amount of money with no guaranteed success in the future.
But has that driven these local students to ditch college education, instead go for the vocational training, or we're not there yet?
We are there, and we can't paint broad strokes.
We can't say everybody's moving in that direction, but data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center showed that the number of students enrolled in vocational -focused community colleges increased 16 % from 2022 to 2023.
16 % is a pretty significant number, and that marks the shift in the United States as well, the same shift that we're seeing here in China.
What are the most in -demand skills driving people to vocational programs today?
Well here, as we're talking about the Chinese context, according to whoshoe .com's interview with a vocational school staff who works at the enrollment office, he said that psychological counseling, and nutritionist, and social media operator, and, well, guess what?
Barista were those that were very popular in previous years among bachelor degree holders who wants to get back to vocational school and receive these matching trainings.
But, well, lately, apart from those, there are other types of majors, like beauty, or spa, or just doing makeup, and then the other more practical ones, including carpentry, housekeeping, welding, and electrical work, and all those majors that's aiming for more practical job positions are popular among
young people here in China as well.
And I heard that that kind of resonates with my personal interests as well.
I heard more and more people are choosing to go back into vocational schools just to learn cooking, pastry, and some who are car fans, like Steve perhaps, will want to enter into the electronic car industry to help mending EVs in the future, because that's a growing market out there for these talents
to enter in the future.
Yeah, I was looking at a report from NPR and it really kind of went in depth into this topic of what's happening culturally, what's happening with young people, to see why they're thinking that a university degree might not be worth it anymore.
And this is what they had to say is that people really prioritized a college education as kind of a path to middle -class success and a cushy office job where you'll have the opportunity for promotion.
I mean, that's kind of like the Western idea of success is when you graduate from university, you get a job, you fit into the middle class somewhere, somehow, and then hopefully you'll get a promotion or two along the way in your career.
Over the last 10 to 15 years though, they say they're seeing a trend among young people opting out of university and it's the crushing debt that college is leaving young people with.
And more than half of Gen Zers, this is according to a survey from New America, that's a Washington think tank, more than half of Gen Zers say it's possible to get a well -paying job with only a high school diploma, provided one acquires some other skills of course, technology, education, things that you
mentioned, Yushan, following the trends of what's going on these days, it's a shift in the way that young people are thinking.
And the idea of living with their parents in the West while they're saddled with these $100 ,000, $200 ,000 student debts, that's not acceptable to them anymore.
That's a very unfortunate place to be, I have to say.
As a young person who's received all these years of education and the minute when you step into the real world, i .e.
the job market, and you are carrying, did you say, hundreds of thousands of US dollars of debt, and that's just too much?
But here in China, thankfully, we don't have that much student debt to deal with for most people in comparison education, or higher education, is far more affordable despite, you know, still people need to save up possibly to pay for tuition and also living expenses, you know, students don't make much
money whatsoever. But here we're seeing these are college graduates, they've got the degree, and now they're turning to vocational school.
So do you think that maybe it's just for the fact these are the folks who have the space to talk on the internet and are grabbing attention and therefore this is trending?
Or is it is it fair to ask the question that maybe their four years of college education is a waste of time, and they should have just made the switch earlier?
Or, or do you think that no, actually having that four year degree is actually really useful.
Now they just want to stack up on top of whatever's on the resume with more vocational vocational skills?
Well, I think what they're seeing, and again, this is according to the NPR report, it's not only the high cost of college, that's not the only factor that's pushing young people toward skilled trades.
AI uses on the rise, we know that, we talk about it on round table all the time, right?
So many Gen Zers, they're seeing manual labor, or those types of skilled jobs as less vulnerable to what AI is going to do to the job market in the future.
We've talked about it on round table many times, oh, is this job going to be safe in the future?
Is that job going to be safe in the future?
What it's doing to the restaurant industry?
Young people are seeing the trend and they're thinking, and again, this is according to the report, maybe having a skilled job is safer and more secure for my future.
So it's not just the rising cost of education.
So what's happening here in China then?
Why is this a thing that people are talking about for these college degree holders to get vocational training?
Well, I believe here in China, the bigger phenomenon is that people are becoming more open -minded about the variety, all of the variety out there in the job market, and no longer just categorize different jobs based on if it's done manually or if it's sitting in an office in front of a computer, let's
say, and also the new forms of jobs are becoming more common among us as well.
And this is according to Zhang Chenggang, director of China Research Center on New Forms of Employment, who said that during an interview that the digital economy has incubated many new forms of employment, which has quickened the shift from traditional manual labor to working in the platform -based
economy. And also in the meantime, we just talked about 12 million young people entering workforce.
And guess what? On top of that, there is a growing gap in skilled labor in China as well, because according to official statistics, back in 2022, skilled workers only accounted for about 26 % of the total employed population in China, with high skilled workers making up only less than one -third of the skilled
workforce. And it's also estimated by China Youth Daily that by 2025, which is very close, it's already approaching, the talent gap in the top 10 key fields of the manufacturing industry will reach nearly 30 million.
So a 30 million gap right there.
Such a huge opportunity for people to just consider switching a lane and trying.
So yeah, I believe as a young person that's something that's triggering young people to at least start thinking about making a change to reinvest in themselves.
I find what you say here hugely fascinating, and it just feels almost like opportunity is in the air and you can smell it right now.
It's really interesting.
You mentioned earlier about, and I can't believe this, the earlier on in the discussion you shared, the first example you gave of the new skilled manual labor examples was counseling, psychological counseling.
That's not something that I would immediately associate with vocational trades, skills.
And another thing you mentioned, barista, and because we've got a ton of new generation of coffee lovers in this country, and maybe because in our culture coffee drinking is often associated with the mini bourgeoisie, okay?
Not the full blown type, but so you wouldn't necessarily associate that with traditional manual labor either.
But also you mentioned these highly skilled technical work that didn't used to necessarily exist, but now they're here, such as let's say the engineers, that work on the factory floor of BYD or Tesla.
They're not traditionally speaking manual labor jobs, I don't think, but you've got all these different types of very skilled labor jobs that have emerged, and these are jobs that need to be filled.
Oh yeah, and also here is this estimation that, well, based on the current trend we're talking about, it's also estimated that further, rather future manual labors, especially in manufacturing, will also need to apply digital technologies in order to obtain and share production information.
So we're talking about manual labors working both in front of the computer and in factories, and in so many other different scenarios as well.
And I believe nowadays when we think about acquiring a new skill or getting a certificate or diploma in a certain area, the ultimate goal is to get a matching drop or a drop that will supply you and make you feel your life is accomplished.
So at this point, I wouldn't say that for those bachelor degree holders, your four years or three years or how many years of diploma acquiring process is not in vain.
You're just reinvesting yourself into a different lane, into trying new things, and that's a good thing.
Yeah, it is. Yeah, and we're not telling people don't go to university, don't get a degree, nothing like that.
But there is a shift, however.
Today, this is a survey from 2024 from the United States from Pew Research Center.
One in four Americans say that a bachelor's degree is necessary to secure a well -paying job.
That's 25 % of respondents.
15 years ago, three in four people told the same research company that a college degree was extremely or important to get ahead in life.
So within 15 years, according to those survey results, it's gone from 75 % of people saying, I need a college degree to be successful in life to 20%, 25 % of people.
So I think we can attribute this to a couple of different things.
I think COVID had a big impact on how people see their lives and their livelihood and what they should be doing.
Me too. When I was growing up in Canada, the idea was the same.
Yeah, of course you have to go to university after high school.
Yeah, of course, when you graduate, you get a job.
I mean, that concept existed in Canada as well, and nobody really questioned it.
But I think with COVID and people weren't going to the office, they were working at home, they started to question, wait a minute, why do I need to be going to the office for 70 hours a week?
And now the question is, wait a minute, why do I need to go to university for four years and invest thousands and thousands and thousands of dollars when I could just learn some other skills and be equally, if not more successful?
I think what I'm trying to say is people are starting to question what you're supposed to do, quote, unquote, in society now in the West.
Well, if it's asking you to take a huge insurmountable amount of debt before actually doing anything in society, then I think that is a great question to ask.
And here in China, in light of all of this happening of college degree holders going to vocational school, is it maybe saying something about the degree value or maybe more importantly, it's saying something about the labor market, about are there enough jobs?
I mean, to be more specific, are there enough office jobs when there's that huge gap that Yushan just described for us of more than 20 million technicians needed in this economy and you don't have people to fill those jobs.
So maybe there's something fundamental, a shift in the labor market.
And also, in the when we talk about the shift of the labor market, I believe, at least our government is supporting a lot of these shifts as well.
Because according to my research here, the central government is working really hard to secure the manual labor sustainable development as well here in China.
Because, well, this is reported by China daily earlier this year, that seven central departments, including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the National Development and Reform Commission and the All China Federation of Treaty Unions, well, all of these departments intend to cultivate and provide
approximately five million highly skilled workers to the modern manufacturing and service industry by 2026.
We're talking about the very big plan in probably a few years spending enough time for the government to fund or to help such vocational schools or like local facilities to cultivate, to nourish these students into qualified skilled workers in the future.
So yeah, I will definitely see that this is a trend happening and it's not just not just merely based on personal choices.
And traditionally in China, vocational careers have faced stigma.
I was just about to ask about that.
Please go on. Yeah.
Thank you. Compared to the traditional degrees, with the recent rise in vocational diplomas as we're talking about here, are we seeing the stigma start to fade?
The reason I was going to ask about that is because in the West, there was a stigma with that as well.
Going to university, that's what is expected of a high school graduate.
For a student that chooses to not pursue that university degree and chooses to go to vocational school to learn plumbing, to learn welding, to learn carpentry, or some other useful skills, that was considered a hmm really?
Like that kind of response to it in Western culture, that's changing now.
And what I wanted to ask you was if that stigma existed here in China too, and if you can if you get a sense that that stigma is changing.
Well, yeah, obviously here we see a change as well as the variety of manual positions are increasing and also work rights have been better protected for those people within these fields.
And of course we share the same stigma, but we also see the change as you guys do.
But also I would beg to defer that maybe we don't share exactly the same stigma because I still remember, well if you look at the annual pay, for a lot of the skilled manual labor workers in the US and the UK or whatnot, they earn a pretty comfortable living.
Oh, I didn't say it was a fair stigma.
It's an unfair stigma.
Exactly, and in China I think we're still on the way to getting there you know in terms of social prestige and better treatment as well.
And this is one segment of the labor market where the lines between blue collar and white collar jobs increasingly blur and it's crucial to consider what truly influences career trajectories.
