NPR. This is The Indicator from Planet Money.
I'm Waylon Wong. And I'm Darian Woods.
It has been an extremely busy week in the news, and we have got it all covered on Indicators of the Week.
We are here to recap a few of the top numbers in this slew of flooding the zone that we have seen.
That's right. And here to bail us out with a bucket is our planet money colleague, Amanda Ronchick.
I brought more than just one bucket.
I brought a bunch of buckets.
You're here on the ark.
You're going to save us.
I'm going to try. It's been a lot of news this week.
Today on the show, we're going to pass some mysterious Fed speak from the central bank and we'll look to the cost of deportations plus some bad math scores.
Support for NPR and the following message come from Edward Jones.
What does it... Schwab gives you more choices, like full -service wealth management and advice when you need it.
You can also invest on your own and trade on Think or Swim.
Visit Schwab .com to learn more.
Support for NPR and the following message come from Edward Jones.
what does it mean to be rich?
Is it having a million stories to share?
Is it having more time to give?
Edward Jones' financial advisors will support what matters to you.
Edward Jones, member SIPC.
This message comes from Schwab.
At Schwab, how you invest is your choice, not theirs.
That's why when it comes to managing your wealth, Schwab gives you more choices.
You can invest and trade on your own.
Plus, get advice and more comprehensive wealth solutions to help meet your unique needs.
With award -winning service, low costs, and transparent advice, you can manage your wealth your way at Schwab.
Visit schwab .com to learn more.
All right, indicators of the week.
Let's start with you, Ellen.
All right, so the Federal Reserve you might have seen kept interest rates unchanged this week.
This is a pause after three consecutive rate cuts.
And here is what jumped out at me.
This is a pause after three consecutive rate cuts.
And here is what jumped out at me.
In the Fed's statement about leaving rates the same, it said, quote, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
Last month, the Fed's statement said, quote, inflation has made progress, dot, dot, dot, but remains somewhat elevated.
Those three words, has made progress, were cut from the Fed's most recent statement.
That's my indicator, three words.
Yeah, I don't understand what the Fed was trying to say with that has made progress.
Does that mean inflation is progressing and is worse?
Is inflation better?
Like, am I supposed to freak out?
Yeah, I had yada, yada, yada, the progress part.
And what it said in the earlier statement was has made progress towards the 2 % target.
I see. And then it took out the reference to progress towards the target in its most recent statement.
Yeah. And the consumer price index is ticking up.
In December, it was 2 .9%.
It was a smidge higher than the previous month.
So not in the right direction.
Yeah. And Fed Chair Jerome Powell was asked about this change in wording during the press conference, and he said they just wanted to shorten.
Sends a signal. Does he not know at this stage?
I'm surprised the briefing room didn't rise up in a great uproar and say, but everything you do sends a signal.
Poor man, though. He can't even do an edit without it being evaluated.
No, it's true. And, you know, throughout the press conference, you know, because it's been such a chaotic week, obviously there were so many questions about, like, the new administration's policies and what do you think the impacts of tariffs and deportations on the economy will be?
And Jerome Powell just had to hold the line and not make any big statements.
And he was like, we are in wait and see mode.
We look at a range of possible outcomes.
He's like, I'm not going to comment on that.
We don't know what's going to happen.
OK, but does he say, oh, yeah, Trump called me and asked me to lower interest rates.
Is that one of the things that he said?
He was asked about this and he said he's had no contact with the president.
And then after the press conference, Trump went on Truth Social and posted a diatribe against the Fed.
The president said, quote, because Jay Powell and the Fed failed to stop the problem they created with inflation, I will do it, end quote.
So as Powell is fond of saying, we will wait and see on what the president does.
Now, deportations, a very big pillar of Trump's agenda and something that would really affect the country and the economy.
Amanda, that's what your segment's about.
Yes. My indicator of the week is a large dollar amount.
It is $26 .9 billion, which is how much Homeland Security says it is going to need in its first year to do all of the detainments and deportations that the Trump administration has been promising.
Otherwise, they say it will be impossible.
So it was $26 .9 billion.
You said it was large.
How large compared to like the size of their budget?
Yeah, yeah. It is truly a lot.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement, also known as ICE, ICE's budget is $8 billion a year.
So that's quite a lot of money.
And it's also like a much bigger number than has been floated out in the media.
But NPR's Ximena Bustillo managed to get this internal memo from ICE.
And in it, they detail how much they think the mass deportation is going to cost and what they're going to need.
So deporting somebody is complex.
There are arresting agents, local law enforcement sometimes.
There's the courts.
They have to hold people, maybe fly them somewhere.
I can imagine the costs stack up.
Yeah, and a lot of the old numbers that have been floating around were based on a calculation of a much smaller number of beds that would be needed to detain people.
Plus, this week, the Laken -Reilly Act became law.
This is going to expand the scope of who can be deported.
So crimes like shoplifting, now that can lead to deportation.
Plus, you don't have to be convicted necessarily.
So all of these deportations, this is going to cost a lot of money.
And you said the memo was really detailed, right?
So what else was in there?
They say they're going to need 26 more airplanes, more than 7 ,000 lawyers, another 10 ,000 people to enforce this law, and they think an additional 110 ,000 detention beds.
And where's the money going to come from?
That is a very good question.
ICE is under the Department of Homeland Security, as are a bunch of agencies that I'm sure you've heard of, things like FEMA, the Coast Guard, TSA, which does airport security.
And there has been talk for about a year now about moving money from these branches into ICE's budget.
And, of course, right now House Republicans are reportedly working on figuring out ways to fund a variety of Trump proposals, including these mass deportations.
And so, again, a big part of Trump's promises, and so not surprising that they're trying to find ways to fund it.
That's right. Thanks, Amanda.
No problem. Darian, what's your indicator?
My indicator is 28%.
This week, only 28 % of American eighth graders met the standard of math proficiency.
That's according to the Department of Education's National Assessment of Educational Progress, or NAEP.
And this number is a slight improvement over 2022, but it is still down from the pre -pandemic times from 2019, when 34 % of pupils were proficient.
Oh, man. I had an eighth grader during this time period.
I wonder if he took this test.
Potentially. Oh, my gosh.
Oh, man. So what's your insight, Amanda, as a parent of an eighth grader?
My insight is that the pandemic was really hard.
We're still feeling effects from it.
Yeah, for sure. Like, Zoom hangover.
Absolutely. And that's what educational experts seem to be saying.
And you see this big break after 2019.
But this slide actually started a lot earlier than that, over a decade ago.
and you would hope that the country was building basic math skills and not just because math is intrinsically fun.
I do agree with you, but I will say that whenever I tell my kids, like, don't you like doing fractions?
Fractions are so fun.
She gets so mad at me.
They don't understand.
Okay, well, here's another argument.
How good you are at math has pretty strong correlations with how much you earn later in life.
You could try that way then.
Okay, I think that she will find that motivating.
So there's a study that looked at the 2022 results and it compared the eighth graders' test scores against census data historically.
And it found that if the post -pandemic decline in math scores were permanent, it would shave off around $20 ,000 from each student's lifetime earnings on average.
Oh my goodness. Wait, let me do the math on this.
I think that's a 1 .6 % decline.
Is that right? Okay, computer.
Amanda, you may be looking at the report.
Not that I doubt your super math skills.
Thank you. And, you know, this $20 ,000 loss is not just bad for the individual worker, but it speaks to the productivity of the country's entire workforce for the future.
High stakes. This is dramatic.
Really? Okay, I'm afraid to ask, but how do we compare it to other countries?
Yeah, so when you look at international comparisons of math scores, they typically show countries like Japan and the Netherlands and Canada.
Amanda, you'll be happy.
These countries typically do better.
And this does mean that the U .S.
is at a competitive disadvantage in this respect against these countries.
Darian, come on, end with a little bit of hope for us, please.
Is there any hope to be had?
So, look, we have some hope.
I'm going to spotlight Alabama.
This is the only state where fourth graders' math scores are actually higher than pre -pandemic levels.
Wow. One state out of 50.
It might have something to do with the 2022 law that was passed aiming to improve math proficiency for young learners.
Yeah, maybe you can send me some of the paperwork to give to my 8th grader, my recently finished, my former 8th grader.
Why don't you send your recent 8th grader for, I don't know, summer camp in Alabama.
There we go. Summer math camps.
Everybody loves - Summer camp in Alabama.
There we go. Summer math camps.
Everybody loves summer math.
What every child wants to do.
Everybody here clearly loves summer math camp.
That's fun for us. This episode was produced by Corey Bridges with engineering by Gilly Moon.
It was backchecked by Sierra Juarez.
Kicking Canon is our show's editor and The Indicator is a production of NPR.
This message comes from Tourism Australia.
No matter what you're into, Australia has something for everyone all year round.
Like the Dane Tree Rainforest this spring, Melbourne's music scene in the summer, and the wineries of Barossa Valley in the winter.
Come and say g'day.
More at australia .com This message comes from ShipBob.
Outgrown how you ship your business's orders?
ShipBob's fulfillment scales with you across locations and channels, delivering smart inventory distribution, two -day shipping, and real -time analytics.
Go to ShipBob .com for a free quote.
Support for the following message comes from LinkedIn Ads.
As a B2B marketer, you know how noisy the digital ad space can be.
If your message isn't targeted to the right audience, it just disappears.
