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We talked about that and a whole bunch of other things with special guests.
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So Ravens Lions last night was just an awesome game.
And it's funny, I got killed gambling on Sunday.
And I really liked the Lions on the road.
I liked the underdog parlay, just them to win the game with the over.
I was probably going to do that on Monday night, and I got shellacked on Sunday.
I stayed away.
And of course, the Lions win and the game goes over.
I thought they looked...
I just loved how they played.
I loved how physical they were.
I loved how over and over again they went for it.
And I think what I... I didn't do a great job with the preseason this year with some of the takes.
I had some good ones, some bad ones.
I think what I really underestimated with the Lions was...
I think they heard a lot of the stuff about, well, their coordinators left.
They've lost some guys in the offensive line.
This won't be as good of a team.
They have a real fire in their belly.
I really thought that was a fuck you performance by them in Baltimore.
And even going for that fourth and two, and they hit Amon Ross, A Brown on that long pass, and then Montgomery for the exclamation point touchdown at the end.
I thought Goff was fantastic.
And I thought they really, really bullied Baltimore in a way that was more shocking, for wherever you feel about Baltimore, big picture.
Now it's a game where, if Henry doesn't fumble, maybe this just goes back and forth and whoever has the ball last wins.
But Sal and I talked on Sunday about who was like the eighth team.
We always want to have the eight teams we think can win the Super Bowl.
And we were debating, is Detroit even in there?
Well, we learned on...
We learned on Monday night that Detroit's definitely in there.
And, if anything, Baltimore probably has a shakier case to crack that top eight with the way they got ran on some of the sloppiness they've had.
Now, Baltimore does this every year.
They always start out a little shaky, and then all of a sudden they went 10 straight.
Not too worried.
But seeing Lamar get sacked seven times and really frazzled a few times was surprising.
I didn't know anyone could sack Lamar. that many times.
I think another big takeaway is Josh Allen is just clearly cemented that he's the most important guy in the league right now.
Now we have 14 weeks left for somebody to take it.
But um, to me he's, he's.
Uh, I feel like he's just levitating slightly above Lamar Holmes and Herbert.
Cause I think Herbert is in that conversation too now, which we'll talk more about on Thursday.
We're gonna do a lot of football on Thursday's podcast.
Um, we are going to do on this podcast Zach Lowe.
He's coming on because Houston had a just unexpected, terrible Fred VanVleet injury.
That has completely changed.
I have to look at them as a contender.
We talked about a bunch of options with them.
We talked about some of the other teams that we're not sure about as we head into the preseason here Boston Indiana, Dallas.
Very fun podcast.
Picasso, the trade machine, came out at one point too.
So we have that.
And then...
Sean Fennessey and Chris Ryan and I, we did a rewatch of those yesterday.
And then afterwards we decided to do a segment about this story about Vegas and how Vegas is offering this big sale this week and tourism is way down for them.
And it's a little bit of a panic time in Vegas.
And the question is why?
What's going on with Las Vegas in 2025?
So this might not be the only time I do this segment, because it's just something I'm personally fascinated in.
I've been going there for 30 years.
I think this will be the 1.0 version of what's going on with Vegas.
I want to do this again with Dave Chang.
I want to do this again with Cousin Sal and Jimmy Kimmel at some point, but I'm just like checking in every once in a while this year with Vegas and just what's going on with this city.
What do they want to be?
What's going wrong?
What's going right?
Sonia, we just talked about all this variable.
So speaking of Jimmy Kimmel, good luck tonight.
He's going to be back on the air.
Can't wait to watch it.
And I think, since I did my thing on Thursday about the whole situation, I think I talked about leverage and power and the biggest thing that changed over the next couple of days was that Disney just took an absolute slacking from everybody.
And I think it hit the point where it made them look so bad to handle it the way they were handling it that they had to bring the show back.
So we'll see how it goes.
I haven't been this interested in a show that he's done, I don't think ever.
So we'll see what he has planned tonight and how he handles everything.
And I am just glad that the show is still going to continue to exist.
So good luck to him.
We're going to take a break.
We're going to do Pearl Jam and then come back with Zach Lowe.
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All right, we're recording this Tuesday morning.
Got up early for this one.
Zach Lowe is here.
I've been on his podcast, but he hasn't been on mine since the finals.
And it feels like a million things have changed since the finals.
The biggest thing recently is Fred Van Bleek goes down.
Torn ACL.
Houston was a team I had been looking at as, huh.
How good could these guys be?
And now they don't have a point guard.
And this is a weird one for me, because I both felt like he was the biggest obstacle that I'm actually winning a title, but just not having him completely is even a bigger obstacle.
What was your reaction when you heard it?
My reaction was I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that this injury by itself takes the Rockets from a team that could plausibly win the championship to a team that might not be able to win slash, maybe can't win the championship.
Like, he's that important.
Yeah.
They don't have... I mean, Amin Thompson's going to get more reps.
That's awesome.
He's a completely different sort of player.
Reed Shepard, like, is he ready?
He barely played last year.
I just think they have just nobody like Fred Van Vliet and no sort of traditional point guard who can calm you down.
They have Durant now and I think one of the ripple effects of this is like the risk of overtaxing Durant in the first 40 games of the season.
Like, run a bunch of pick and rolls, all that stuff.
So I think it's, like...
I think it's a disaster for the Rockets.
I think it's a break for like the Lakers, the Wolves, the next tier of teams in the West.
Because I had them, I had, you know, OKC, Denver, Houston as like a clear top three in the West.
I agree with that.
Yeah, I would have put I had Houston as a 3A and Minnesota as a 3B, because I still feel like I don't know why we're just discarding Minnesota and making them 20 to 1 to win the title, all that stuff, when they have a top seven guy and a pretty deep team.
I can't wait to get into that.
Yeah, yeah.
So, All right, so you run through the seven stages of grief with this injury.
And at some point and Hollinger wrote about it a little bit for The Athletic today, not to call it a silver lining, but it's like okay well, now they get to find out.
What do they have with Reed Shepard?
Could Ahmed Thompson actually run the offense through him more?
Could you run the offense through Shangoon?
All that stuff sounds great.
There's a regular season version of this where it's like, yeah, okay, we'll find out some stuff.
I'm just fast forward into the playoffs.
I'm fast forward into that game that we went to game four in Indiana when Dorton Caruso were just like you're not dribbling the ball over half court.
They're not going to have anybody who can play in an actual playoff series, not just against OKC but against Minnesota.
That I completely trust as a ball handler.
And it's like, cool, we have Kevin Durant.
Cool, we have Shang-Goon.
We can run half court shit through them.
I'm just talking about the 94 feet, the pressure.
And one of the biggest revelations from last year was how important multiple guards were ball handling playmaking, having people be able to share the distribution of stuff.
And this now puts all of the pressure on Reed Shepard, who didn't play last year.
It's too much pressure on Reed Shepard.
It's too much to expect from him to take a huge leap to being like, all of a sudden, what is going to be a 30 minute, a game point guard on this team.
Like, I haven't read Hollander's column yet.
I missed it this morning.
All that stuff, I think, was going to be discovered in the regular season anyway.
One of the things that's.
What's great about Fred VanVleet is he doesn't have to be like a high volume.
You got to run every play through him.
He can be off the ball.
This is why they got him.
This is why they got him instead of James Harden.
Emeo Docus kind of said that on the record to me last year.
We didn't want a guy who would siphon ball handling duty from like our main guys.
And I think he would have found all that stuff out.
He's a low mistake player and they just they don't have anybody like him.
And actually, it made me think. they're built to win right now.
This is a disaster.
You don't get Kevin Durant at age 37 and maybe be on the verge of extending him if you're not built to win this season immediately.
So regular season self-discovery is not even that big of a silver lining to me, because I think it would have happened anyway, and it's not what this season is about.
And it's made me think Like, will they actually start getting aggressive in trades for a guard?
I think that's in play too.
I haven't gone through the list of names who that would be yet, but I don't know who's going to be available.
They, you know they have some salaries they could trade.
But it wouldn't surprise me if they just were like we're not no, we're not punting.
We're not just doing this silver lining stuff.
Like, let's go get somebody.
So I've been up since like five o'clock in the morning.
Don't ask.
Sometimes you just get older.
You just wake up sometimes.
And that's probably why I probably have some eye bags under my thing.
But yeah, I was going through all this stuff.
And that was, I landed there.
Can we go there in 10 minutes?
Yeah.
It's your podcast.
We can go anywhere you want.
No, but I landed there mentally by about 7.15 a.m.
Pacific time.
See, I went immediately into the worst stage of grief.
There was no stages for me.
I was like, oh my.
I test drove the Reed Shepard 30 minutes a game.
What if he's ready?
He was the third pick in the draft.
But by 7.15, I was like, you just traded all this stuff for Kevin Durant.
You're in wind down mode.
Every year that you have him he's.
God only knows what he's going to look like two years from now.
This is the moment right now.
You can't go into the playoffs with the roster you have.
So what's the move?
Now...
Reed Shepard, they picked third in the draft.
Our draft guys really liked him.
A lot of people liked him.
There were some Mark Price possibilities with him.
I thought he was going to play more last year.
He just kind of didn't fit in with their timeline and having another undersized guard.
I think they were trying all these different lineups.
I do think he's talented.
There's some shooting stuff that he brings to the table.
I was looking at...
Their three-point shooting was probably like their Achilles heel last year, where you have Shingun and Thompson who just can't shoot from three at all.
So 40% of your guys, not threats at all.
Van Vliet was like around 35%, 36%.
Jalen Green was in the 33%, 35% range.
Brooks was their best three-point shooter, which speaks for itself.
So that was one of the things that I think they had to really think about.
They're 21st. three-point percentage.
It felt worse when you watched them.
And they were just a weird team in general.
Like they were first in rebounds.
They're 28th in assists.
They couldn't shoot threes.
It was just this hodgepodge team that somehow kind of made sense when you watched it, but didn't really make sense.
It made up losing to a pretty limited Warriors team in seven, right.
I don't think that was a great series for the rockets, which was one of the reasons they make the trade.
So if you're going to reinvent them a little bit, you would reinvent them with three-point shooting, which opens the door for reed shepherd, who they spent the third pick on, and if he's good, they kind of have to find out this season, Even though he's like 21.
I think they will.
I mean, you don't invest it.
Like, I remember he was getting thrown into trades.
It's just like when they were in the Durant sweepstakes.
Like, oh, just like Reed Shepard and this is the fifth thing in a trade.
I'm like you don't put the third pick in the draft, with the comps that he had as a shooter and a guard playmaker coming out of college, after one year where he barely played.
He's not a throw-in guy.
But, you know, I do think like a lot of people... We're going to do this now, aren't we?
Well, no, no.
I just don't know what else to say.
It's just they were a team that could not afford an injury like this if they want to compete against the heavyweights in the West in the playoffs.
Beat two of those teams in the playoffs.
Fred VanVleet was a perfect player for them.
Low mistake, good shooter, good playmaker, calm under pressure, natural pick-and-roll partner for Durant and Shang-Goon can play off of Shang-Goon.
They just have no one.
Ahmed Thompson's awesome.
He made, I mean, we both put him on the freaking dream team in 2028.
Like he's on our Olympic roster, no brainer, locked in.
We love him and Thompson.
Yes, we did.
He did make progress, kind of running some of the offense last year, but he was still mostly like a cutter screener.
Secondary option.
There's a gigantic leap from there to like, okay, here's 35 pick and rolls a game.
Go ahead.
Like it's a huge change.
So if you're going, let's go glass half full with the Rockets.
Do you have any Eurobasket people in your life?
I know you didn't care and I know I didn't really care at all.
But did you have anybody who was like, I'm really into this, I'm watching these?
Do NBA scouts who were in attendance count?
Because that's all I had.
Only those people who were like, hey, are you here?
Are you coming?
I can't believe you're not going for the final four.
I'm like, sorry, I'm not.
It's not going to happen.
So there was... like a, a Shingun summer kind of breakout thing happening.
And it was a thing.
It's, it's the deep recesses of this is you go on vacation.
I'm in football.
I'm not, I'm sorry.
I'm not going to watch Eurobasket, but people are really excited about Shingun.
He's only 23.
He was 19, 10 and five last year.
Um and yeah, The word that was getting thrown around including by somebody I trust was like he looked kind of Jokic-y.
I was going to say, is it going to start with a J?
Is it going to start with a J?
Don't put that on him.
Don't put that on Alfred Shingler.
This is a tournament where Dennis Schroeder not only was the MVP, but probably solidified his FIBA Hall of Fame candidacy as one of the greatest international basketball players we've ever had.
So, you know, take it with a grain of salt.
But...
Could he make a leap up?
What's he going to look like with Durant?
Are there big, giant lineups they can play where they're just like, fuck it.
We're going to play Thompson at point forward.
We're going to have Durant out there with Eason, with Jabari Smith, with KD, with Shangoon.
Like, look at us.
We're just gigantic.
Good luck.
Yeah, they're going to do that.
They did that last year.
Nothing about, I mean their identity.
Last year was defense and beating the shit out of you on the glass, including with the double center lineup that became such a delightful plot twist in the season with Adams and Shang-Goon.
I do think, And nothing about how they changed their team, other than maybe playing Shepard a little bit more chips away at any of that identity.
Durant certainly doesn't.
I do think Shang-Goon will make a leap.
I love Shang-Goon.
I'm all in on Shang-Goon.
He's awesome.
I mean it's less about him and what's left over and more about the void that Van Vliet leaves and how that void would manifest itself on the biggest stages in this conference against these teams.
Like there's a competition in the West at the top is just so good.
You have the best player in the world.
You have the defending champs who won 68 games.
You have all these teams below them that have interesting kind of upsides, including Minnesota.
It's your margin for this kind of injury is like nothing in the West.
So their odds dropped to 16 to one on FanDuel.
OKC is plus 210.
And I don't know if that's too high or too low.
To me, it's like if you could take OKC or the field.
This is to win the West or to win the championship?
No, this is to win the title.
OKC is plus 210.
Oh, my God.
Cleveland's plus 650.
And then Denver is plus 750.
And I've been saying this for two months.
I don't understand how Denver doesn't have the second best odds because I think I personally think.
Yes, you do.
They're in the West.
That's all.
That's all.
It's like by default, the East team will have the second best odds.
I know, but I just think whoever wins if I had to say now granted, this is September 23rd whoever wins that OKC Denver series to me is probably going to win the title.
Well, I'm looking at it now.
Unless there's a weird injury.
Why is Cleveland plus 650 and the Knicks are plus 1,000?
That's another weird one.
I'm sidetracking.
I'm sorry.
But why is Minnesota 20 to 1?
How does Minnesota have worse odds than Houston?
I have to click show more to get down to Minnesota.
Who has worse odds to win the NBA title than the Orlando Magic?
And the Lakers.
The Lakers are 14-1.
Now, granted, they jacked the Laker odds up because the dumbass Laker fans bet them every year.
They do this to the Red Sox.
Well, they do this to the Red Sox fans, too.
There's certain fan bases where you're like we're just going to price this differently and these dumbasses will bet it.
The Clippers are 18-1.
So Minnesota has... the ninth best odds?
And I think this Houston situation has really opened the door for them because they have a chance to be a two seed right.
It's Denver, Denver.
You are preaching to the preacher.
I have said on multiple podcasts, mostly when we talked about the Lakers though I did a Minnesota one last week that I feel like the Lakers being where they are in the odds.
I've used the phrase disrespectful to the Timberwolves, who have made the Western Conference Finals two years in a row.
Yeah, they lost one key guy in Alexander Walker, but they've got some young guys.
I mean, that's just part of being a team.
You should be able to afford losing.
They lost.
The most replaceable guy you can lose is a bench guy who's like a swingman perimeter guy.
You can find those guys.
You can find them at the trade deadline, whatever.
They have Ant, who's just nothing but ascending superstar.
They have a good defense.
They're just a good team.
They're a really good team.
They're tough to beat.
As long as they don't beat themselves with turnovers, they're really, really tough to beat.
And they don't have a lot of weaknesses.
Well, I mean...
In the Lakers' defense, they did handily beat Minnesota in the playoffs last year.
Oh, no, that was the complete opposite.
Minnesota killed them.
Yeah, but LeBron was banged up.
He won't get banged.
He's only 40-41.
He won't be banged up again in the playoffs.
LeBron was banged up.
He was banged up in the fifth game.
All of a sudden, the banging up seemed more prominent.
Back to Houston.
Yeah.
I got to do it.
Picasso dusted it off. started to go through the rosters, look for some people.
This is why you were texting me.
Now I know why you were texting me about the Rockets Nets trade pick trade swap last year in connection with the McHale Bridges trade.
Now I know why, because you're building Houston trades with all the assets they still have.
Well, the interesting thing about the Rockets for this particular situation, if they decided there was some real urgency, and maybe they won't.
There's Shingun's 23 and Thompson's 22, and those are the guys they care about the most.
And maybe they're like, ah, let's not overreact.
With that said, They don't have their first-round pick this year.
It doesn't matter, because I don't think that would be a big draw anyway, even though it's a good draft.
Next year, they can swap their first with Brooklyn, but they also have Phoenix's unprotected first.
They have their own first for four straight years, five straight years.
I think you should stop right there.
If you're the Rockets.
What you just said about 2027 is like hey guys, we could have two lottery picks in 2027.
Impossible high lottery picks.
That's a big, big deal.
Yeah.
So they have that.
And they also have two in 29 of Dallas, Phoenix, Houston.
They get the best two out of that.
That Brooklyn trade...
So we should talk, we should sidebar and talk about this Brooklyn trade really fast.
So Brooklyn and you were saying it was part of like they're not doing the bridges trade unless they can also get their 25 first back?
They get their 25 first back from Houston because Houston had the swaps rights on it.
And they get a 26 first back from Houston.
So Brooklyn gets control of their own picks and 25 and 26 in exchange, for They gave Houston Phoenix's first in 2025.
Phoenix's 27th first unprotected and the best two of Dallas, Phoenix, Houston in 29.
The reason.
This is important, because last year, Brooklyn ends up being better than they thought they were going to be.
They get the eighth pick.
The pick they gave up in the trade was the 10th pick.
So they moved up two spots.
So this comes down now really to the 2026 first for three first round picks, including Phoenix's 27th first, which I would love to have if I'm basically anybody.
That trade's a disaster.
Can you defend it?
This is yet another terrible Sean Marks moment.
I don't know what else he has to do to be looked at.
It turned out to be an absolutely great bet by the Rockets, betting specifically against the Suns.
Betting that getting the Suns picks would help them get either Durant or Booker or both.
And I believe they used one of those picks to get Durant, the number 10 pick in the draft.
That number 10 pick they got back from Brooklyn was in the Durant trade.
I thought the Rockets had slightly underrated the risk that that pick last year could turn into Cooper flag, but they actually properly weighted it.
You know, the new lottery odds change all this.
And they just said we're going to bet on a bounty of Sun stuff over this one golden chip Nets asset.
And it turned out to be a fantastic bet.
The Nets kind of like self-sabotaged by being too good to get into the Cooper flag derby.
And now they're just going to try to do it again and again and again going forward.
But they can only do it again this one time, because after that the Rockets could swap their pick in 27.
Like I thought that was a hugely underrated part of that whole series of transactions that the Rockets kept those swap rights with Brooklyn in 2027.
Because the message to them was you get two years to do this, two summers to do it.
If you can't do it and you're still bad, like you're still fucked.
We're still going to take your pick.
Yeah.
I didn't love it for the Rockets because I thought Brooklyn had a chance to be the worst team in the league.
And I find it hard to believe they wouldn't have done that Bridges trade, if this trade, If they couldn't have gotten their pick back.
I still think you have to do the Bridges trade because it was so many picks.
How do they be like, now we can't do it.
We're just going to go 38 and 44.
But I think it worked out unbelievably well for Houston.
It could not have worked out better.
Because part of that calculation was... we think Phoenix in a couple of years could be really bad.
I thought Phoenix was going to be good last year.
I thought they were, I had them as like a top four seed.
It cratered immediately.
And now that pick looks awesome.
I mean, if we were drafting, if we did a draft back and forth on five first rounders you would want, in 2027 Phoenix would be one of the five teams, correct?
Who else would you pick?
Well, I mean, you got to pick all the also-rans like Washington, Sacramento.
It's always good to have a Kings pick.
And by the way, Utah, I believe, owns – they have some golden –
I'm looking at the wrong thing.
They have the Suns 2031 pick because remember the Suns did that thing with like, give us three picks.
Now we'll give you one pick out the door.
Like they've traded a lot of potentially massively valuable, like individual picks.
Utah got really hosed on their Lakers first round pick swap.
They had to have been secretly the most upset about the Luka trade.
Because they were just sitting there in pole position with a Lakers team that God only knows what would happen to them.
Let's take a break, and Picasso's going to throw some names at you.
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All right, so I laid out the Houston draft picks that they could potentially get frisky with.
From a contract standpoint, they have a...
Reed Shepard's around 10.
They could be cutthroat and put the Van Vliet contract in a trade as a salary.
Who's $25 million this year, $25 million next year.
So if you put him and Shepard together, that gets him in the 30s, which opens the door for the Trae Young type of guys.
You could put Jabari... I'm not saying they should do that.
I'm just saying.
Jabari and Shepard together puts them in the 20 range.
Shepard by himself is around 10.
And I think... they're probably looking at stopgap guys because you're thinking about OKC.
We're a point guard short.
We need somebody really good if we're actually going to win the title.
So I'm going to give you five names in no particular order.
By the way, I just jotted down as we were doing this.
I went through the standings, just literally jotted down names.
So I'm excited to see if just my instantaneous jot down matched any of yours.
I have five names.
Number one.
Well, I'll go from...
I'll go in descending order from least likely to get an eye bulge kind of you don't breathe for a second to huge eye bulge.
Can't wait.
Ayo Dusunmu.
Not on my list.
Good name.
Talked about his extension case yesterday on the Zach Lowe Show.
He's a good player.
$7 million a year, stopgap.
They could probably patch some stuff together, maybe even throw some of their lesser picks and just grab them right.
And if you're the Bulls, what do you care?
You just want to go 40 and 42 again this year and not pay the luxury tax.
That's your only goal year after year.
Limited resume as a ball handler, okay shooter, very good defender, fits in that way.
I don't hate it.
I don't think it really moves you back into the upper, upper stratosphere.
It does not.
It was just a name that jumped out.
I would rather not do anything and hope Aaron Holiday is half decent.
Second name, Jose Alvarado.
Okay, yeah, you're starting lower than me.
I didn't have him on my list.
Look, I love Jose Alvarado.
How did that make four and a half million could probably steal them.
I don't think that swings an OKC series, but I think that would help them.
Right.
Don't have to give up a lot.
Maybe you throw first at them.
Protected.
I'd rather get the Sumnu for the size, but Alvarado's a better playmaker, maybe a little bit better shooter.
But trading with the Pelicans, you never know.
You could get an unprotected first or something for the Pelicans.
You just never know what's on the table from them.
Some sort of swap.
All right, now we're getting serious.
Scottie Pippen Jr.
I like that.
That's a good name.
Cheap contract could get him easily.
I don't know what Memphis's plan is for this season, but I assume they're not trying to win the title.
Would be part of my guess, considering they traded Desmond Bain for a bunch of stuff and they waived Cole Anthony and Jaron Jackson was hurt.
And I don't know when he's going to start this season.
And could you, could you actually turn Pippen into a real draft pick asset?
Yeah.
Pippen is good.
And one of the things I like about these names at the lower price point salary-wise is they can be one-for-one or two-for-two deals.
Houston is reaching the point without Van Vliet that two Rockets rotation guys out for one back is like you're thinning your team out quite a bit.
Oh, yeah.
I should have mentioned this earlier.
So the starting lineup they have right now is Shingun Durant, I'm going to say Finney Smith, Thompson and Shepard.
Let's say that's the five.
Adams, Jabari, Eason.
Clint Capella is just randomly on this team.
Okoji, Holiday.
So to your point, they have eight and a half plus Capella, plus Okoji, plus Holiday as stopgap guys.
I'm just going to say that I like Jay Sean Tate.
All right, let's throw Tate in there too.
All right, here are my last two, unless you want to throw one at me.
Actually, throw one at me.
I have bigger names.
Okay, well, I'm moving into my bigger category right now.
All right, so some of this is like depending on how the first 20 games of the season goes.
Like is there a team that is way below expectations and suddenly pivots like, including perhaps your team, which we'll get to in a second.
On a lower salary scale, Jaden Ivey?
I don't think I'm beating OKC with Jaden Ivey as my ball handler.
I don't mind it, though.
Do you throw a boatload of assets at the Celtics for Derek White?
Can we put a pin on that for a second?
Okay.
I'll give you two lower-level guys, and then we'll talk Derek White.
Okay.
Peyton Pritchard.
You can throw any of the Celtics guards.
I have Simons on my list.
I don't think defensively.
He fits into their culture.
But any of the Celtics guards, why not throw him in?
Peyton Pritchard would be fine.
Peyton Pritchard's making, I don't know 9 million a year, 10 million a year, somewhere in that range.
It weirdly lines up with Reed Shepard's salary.
So part of the question for me is, if I'm doing a trade value list, where is Reed Shepard?
He's certainly not in the top 50.
Is his trade value higher than Peyton Pritchard?
Is it lower?
Is it the same?
I have no idea.
Do you have any take at all on that?
I think I'm trying to look at.
I'm looking at Boston's, And if you're Boston, would you do that?
I think they're...
I think they're probably about equal and Pritchard maybe edges him out by a nose because his contract is longer than I thought.
He has three years left on his contract at a cheaper salary to read Shepard.
Shepard's got the intrigue.
Pritchard just won six man of the year.
Um, I would say Pritchard probably has a little bit more like next two years trade value.
Yeah.
That's an interesting one though.
Again, it depends.
Like if Boston season goes off the rails fast, who knows?
Well, if they've made that and we're going to talk about them in the next segment, but if they made the decision to Tatum, no, I don't, we don't care how good you look.
You're not coming back and they own their own draft pick.
Part of maybe making yourself a little worse for this year would be turning Pritchard, a really good you know bench guy, borderline decent starter, into a project like Reed Shepard.
But you'd have to really like Reed Shepard.
I think that's the first one out of the names as I kind of escalate up the ladder where you go.
Yeah, that's a guy that could actually play in a series against OKC in Minnesota, right.
That's.
I don't know if you'd play crunch time, but you could get 20 to 25 really good minutes from him.
And then the other one, ironically, another white guy, T.J.
McConnell.
And I would say his trade value is probably lower than Pritchard.
But Indiana in the same boat as Boston.
I don't know what their strategy is going to be for this year.
But if you can turn T.J.
McConnell into Reed Shepard.
You got to at least think about it, because you're going nowhere this year anyway, right?
I think for Houston, you need another asset, right?
That almost seems to be a two for one.
Yeah, T.J.
McConnell's 33.
Yeah.
We both love T.J.
McConnell.
Suddenly the greatest isolation score in the NBA out of nowhere.
Single-handedly with Knipple, bringing back the up fakes around the basket.
Yeah um, i think i need a little more, but these are, these are good names.
I i was just doing, i was doing like, as you would say, blink test.
Just looking at the standings, who pops into my mind and i want bigger names than this.
But these are, these are good.
A good range of names.
These are the.
Let's do something, but let's not do anything dramatic.
Derrick white is the dramatic name.
I mean, that's one where you I need give me some shit back for Derek White.
I need, yo, that Phoenix pick you have in 27, that's coming back.
Like you're, you're giving me real stuff for that.
And if you're Houston, I don't know what the price is.
I think Shepard probably has to be in it too.
But if you're Houston and you basically turn this Van Vliet disaster into Derek White with some of your picks and you make a real run at this year, could you actually win the title with Derek White?
I think is a real question.
You get four years of runway.
Now that takes him through age 35.
He's got four years left on his contract with a player option in the fourth year.
He's, I mean, E-May knows him already.
He's a top 50 player.
This is a different caliber of dude.
You've actually, going from Fred Bainblee to Derek Way, you have upgraded your team.
You've made your team better.
Yeah, he's a better player.
Yeah.
I had a couple other.
What's the price for him, though, for you, in your opinion?
Oh, for Boston, it's like three firsts, a young player.
I mean, they would demand a shitload for, justifiably, like, for him.
That's a tough phone call to Tatum.
It is a tough phone call.
Heard the rehab's going great.
And to Jalen, too.
Heard the rehab's going great.
We've traded Derek White for a bunch of assets that won't help you guys until about three years from now.
It's a tough phone call to Tatum.
On the other hand, Tatum has won an NBA title, several first-team All-NBA appearances and is slated to make 715 million in 2029 2030.
So I would hope that he would see the bigger picture.
Just these numbers starting with a seven for NBA players is really, really something.
Who else did you have for the big names?
These are just names I randomly wrote down in a 45-second scan while you were talking on the podcast.
So take them with a grain of salt.
The recently injured Tyler Hero.
So it would be hard to get there from a salary standpoint.
What's his salary?
He's like at 30?
31, 31.
So Van Vliet's 27.
So Van Vliet has to be in that.
Yeah.
Man, that's pretty cutthroat, man, trading.
I don't know if I'm doing that unless I can.
I would put Van Vliet in a Derek White trade, but not a...
Am I winning the title with Tyler Harrow in the VanVleet spot?
Probably not.
The next ones are just wild.
And again, I cannot emphasize enough how little thought I put into any of this.
Yeah, no, this is why we love podcasting.
If you're willing to eat a lot of years, I actually don't think this is possible.
Emmanuel quickly just popped into my mind.
I just think it's too much money, too many years.
He's too unproven.
I don't see it.
Yeah, and he doesn't solve my.
I want to make sure I have ball handling and leadership in the most tense possible moments in May and June.
I'm not feeling that with Emmanuel quickly.
The last one requires like 17 different things that go wrong for one team and just a lot of bad vibes, a lot of like puzzle pieces that have to shift.
Ooh, I'm excited for this.
Like what if...
What if things just go very badly this season for Austin Reeves with the Lakers?
What if it's like you asked me to come off the bench extension talks.
You know they couldn't really get started because you couldn't offer me enough.
But I'm not sure, like, you know, do you really value me enough in a Luka world?
LeBron is still here.
Is he retiring?
If he's retiring, is that good for my future in L.A.?
I'm just saying, like, there's a world in which it goes.
I don't think this is going to happen, but it's a name that popped into my head.
So you're running some offense through him, not as a point guard but as like a ball, almost like how you'd use hero.
Yeah, he can do that.
It feels like you have some thoughts on maybe Austin Reeves might be more available this season.
No, no, no.
I'm not saying that.
The Lakers love Austin Reeves.
The aggregators are like... No.
The Lakers love Austin Reeves.
Austin Reeves loves being a Laker.
Austin Reeves' people are very close to the Rambi and Jeannie Buss.
They love it there.
But I'm just saying like it's not.
We've seen more hunky-dory situations go awry before in big markets where, like a lot of stuff happens.
And, you know, who knows?
I'm just, I don't think that'll happen.
I don't think any of these names are like, I like your little names better.
I just don't know that the little names... do enough for me.
I'm surprised you... Derek White does, though.
Oh, Derek White.
I mean, look.
But to your point, I think right now... I don't want to try Derek White.
I think right now the Celtics are with you.
I think right now the Celtics are like look, even if this becomes a gap year, we're bringing everybody back next year.
We're going to try and go full bore again.
Got the Jays in their prime making a gazillion dollars.
And Derek White is...
Just an A++ winning player.
So I agree with you.
You don't want to hop in the Trae Young trade car and just drive around the block?
Drive it.
Hop in.
I'll ride shotgun.
I'm on record as saying that I said yesterday that if I'm the Hawks I'm going four years, 180 million for Trey Young right now.
And I'm offering a bit to him today.
And if he doesn't take it, then I got to think, do I want to raise it up a little bit?
But take the car out.
You're the rocket.
You want to trade for Trey Young?
Well, I really like my roster from the Hawks.
I don't want to be paralyzed by the Trey Young extension where I basically limited myself to.
It's going to be this year only and then I'm going over the second apron from that point on with my roster once we have to pay some of these other guys.
Trae Young on Houston.
With Durant and with Shangoon, I'm just not going to be good enough defensively.
I don't think.
That is a big ingredient to throw into your team two weeks before the season starts.
To have you and Shandoon on the court together.
I'm I'm not winning the title.
This is also a guy who is accustomed to running like literally 60 pick and rolls a game, like he is the entire offense and plopping him into one of the greatest scorers of all time.
And this young ascendant center who does a lot of stuff with the ball like it's it's tricky.
That's tricky.
And it's a lot of money going out to he's making forty six million dollars.
I really like Peyton Pritchard, but I also like that move for the Rockets.
I actually think that's the answer in this because it's a little lower risk.
It makes sense for Boston, because you would only do it if you got a better asset than him as a player.
And then you keep Simons for the year and you have this asset that maybe you could flip back.
The Derek White thing, though, if I'm Houston, I'm calling about Derek White.
Like, yo, had to make this call.
What's going on?
Would Boston trade with Houston is another interesting one.
Because of... Yeah, you know, the...
Their coach used to coach the Celtics.
Can I give you one more name, as I'm going through a random team that I just have to remind myself sometimes that they exist and we should talk about them.
Yeah.
Colin Sexton.
Yes.
Yes.
How did you know?
That's the name.
I looked at him too.
Expiring contract, 19 million.
Charlotte doesn't care.
Could Charlotte get Reed Shepard for Colin Sexton?
That would be crazy.
No, no, no, no, no.
I think, I think Colin Sexton is pretty good.
I mean, I think that's actually a good name.
I'd have to work out what the trade would be, but I think that's a good name.
I jettisoned him because he's at like 19 million.
Great use of the word jettison.
Yeah, i don't.
I don't know that if i've said that out loud in like five years, that word, that's a great.
I like to dust them off.
Um, they would have to put that would have to be their van vliet, and i don't think they're going to trade van vliet for colin sexton just for a variety of reasons.
But jabari would have to be.
I don't know, i couldn't figure out how to make that one work.
Can i ask you one more rockets question?
Yeah well, i have another rockets question for you too.
What's yours?
Are you surprised at all that Tara Eason extension has not like happened and there hasn't been like a whiff of noise about it at all?
What does that extension look like for you?
Well, Jabari got, what, five of four or five and, like, 5'120", I think it was, something like that.
You know, I think if I'm Eason, I've had some leg injuries that have kept me out for a while that have been recurring.
You know, hopefully those are behind them, but, you know...
He's probably asking for 30, 25 a year, four years, 100, something like that.
He played 25 minutes a game last year.
Okay.
12 points a game, six rebounds, 30 million?
No, I wouldn't give him that.
I'm saying is 25 too much?
I mean, Giddy just got 25.
Giddy is a more proven player, but also with a lot of question marks.
Stats.
I mean, you and I both really like Tari Eason, but man, he's going to make more than 20 million a year.
I, I, if there's an extension, I'll bet you it's over 20 million a year.
Really?
Wow.
I just didn't think they were giving those.
I mean, you did the pot about it yesterday with this, with the aprons.
It just feels like, uh, it feels like that money is in there in the same way.
Like, do you think he has more contract value than Kaminga who nobody even wanted to offer 20?
Uh, I personally like Tari some more, but I'd say they're around the same vicinity.
Yeah, they're around the same vicinity.
The injuries would scare me.
I mean, he did play 82 games as a rookie.
22 the second year is disturbing.
57 last year.
Yeah, I still think these guys just get $20 million.
What was your Rockets question?
Did Van Buit going down make it more or less likely for them for a Giannis trade?
Oh, my God.
Okay, now.
Because if we were doing the Giannis trade possibility rankings, they were always in the top three and had a case for number one.
Right?
Wouldn't you have to say more?
Would you just have to?
But I don't think Giannis is getting traded this year.
Do you?
Listen, it's the NBA.
It's harder to do it during the year.
It's harder to do it during the year.
That's the only problem.
I'm just conditioned to weirdness and guys being available that we never thought would be available.
What would happen to Thanasis?
I think he's in the trade.
Yeah.
I'm just checking.
It would be Shangoon and Jabari and all the picks.
To what end at that point?
Well that's, but it's.
This is the question of like, we have our winner now at Durant and now we have Giannis and we can run the team through Giannis, because Giannis can basically be point center and you could talk yourself into it.
It's easy to talk yourself into.
I was talking to someone in the league yesterday about the Hawks and Giannis, because I just have my radar up on the Hawks.
They have those Milwaukee picks, pieces of the next two Milwaukee picks.
They have Jalen Johnson.
They have Risa Shea.
They have all the ingredients.
They almost hired... They interviewed Giannis' agent to be their GM.
There's just a lot of...
There's a lot of like just dots sitting out there.
And, you know, we were pitching this guy and I were pitching trades.
He's like, so what's the trade?
I was like well, it's like Jalen Johnson, Reese O'Shea probably has to be in it, a bunch of picks and you know whatever else.
And probably Dyson isn't in it.
And he was like, oh, you do that for Giannis 100 times out of 100.
And I said well, you know, someone made the point to another, person made the point to me.
Like We just saw, Dame and Giannis not work well enough.
Like it worked, but not well enough.
Should the Hawks think that Trey and Giannis is going to work better than that?
No.
And he was like, no, you just you just do the Giannis deal.
It's Giannis.
You do it.
I'm like, I feel like we always say that about now.
He's he's only 31.
He's not old.
He's not a shooter, which is a little worrisome for his aging curve.
But we always say that about these like superstar trades.
It's this person.
You got to do it.
I'm like, do you like do you?
I don't know.
Do you?
I would zag and say, if you did it, Trey Young should be in the trade.
Yeah, that could be it.
You could go that way too.
We've already seen this game with Giannis and Dame.
You know, I think that's why the Rockets fit is weirdly interesting to me, because I think Giannis really likes to have the ball all the time.
But who's with me?
So in your trade, it's me, Giannis, Durant, Shangun's out, Ahmed Thompson.
I just have... It's everybody else but Ahmed Thompson and Durant.
Can I just end up with Giannis, Durant, Thompson...
Maybe Eason.
Oh, that's interesting.
And maybe I keep Reed Shepard.
And then you can have everything else in all my picks.
Because I think those picks... That Phoenix 27 pick is a true trade ship.
It's interesting because our guy Bobby Marks... You better fucking win.
You better fucking win in the next two years.
Well...
Our guy Bobby Marks did a piece on ESPN like five, six days ago ranking the best draft assets everybody had.
I think he had Houston fifth.
They have great draft assets.
I completely disagree.
I would rather have Houston's picks than anyone else's picks.
Because you could make the... OKC has a ton of picks.
I don't really individually love...
Any of the picks.
Their best pick is probably that top four protected Philly pick.
Philly's not going to be bad this year.
The Edgecombe thing, I think, was a little bit of a game changer for their ceiling.
I don't think they're going to bottom out.
I heard you with, I can't remember who it was, but you and House, I think, you're intrigued.
I'm going to say intrigued.
I'm intrigued by Philly because I think they can.
Skinny Embiid, in particular, has gotten your attention.
Wow, anytime somebody, anytime a big man, does the Tim Duncan, you have my interest.
Skinny Tim Duncan was one of my favorite Tim Duncan.
So you are all in on the 2025, 26 Philadelphia 76ers?
I couldn't be less all in.
I did.
One of the things I said... I was trying to trick the aggregators.
Simmons, 50 wins coming.
I think they can win the title.
I sent you my top 100 list to look at that I was tinkering with.
And I had... Embiid was one of those where I just... Where does it go?
I have no...
Is he in the 60s?
Should he be on the list at all?
Should he be in the top 30?
I don't like it.
60s, right?
Yeah, because I don't know how many games he's going to play.
If I gave you an over-under for Embiid for 40 games, would you go over or under?
Under.
Yeah.
So how can he be higher than...
I don't know, 65?
You have him 63rd, one spot behind Rudy Gobert, continuing just the freight train of Rudy Gobert disrespect.
Yeah, honestly, that was just shots at Rudy.
There's really no other reason for that.
Yeah.
So speaking of those finals odds that we mentioned earlier, do we agree Minnesota 20-1 is the most jarring value bet?
That doesn't make sense when you look at all the collection of the rest of the guys.
Yeah, because once you get once you get Minnesota and then Atlanta is next.
And that's sort of I mean, Warriors plus 3000 behind Atlanta and Detroit.
Can you see that?
I could see that.
Yeah.
Those are the odds.
And I left out a couple teams, but... Yeah, the Warriors aren't there.
The Warriors are... You know why the Warriors aren't there?
Because I would urge everyone not to bet on the Warriors to win the 2026 NBA title.
It's ludicrous.
I know they're in the West too, which influences all of these, but for them to be behind Detroit and Atlanta.
By the way, I didn't put Detroit on that list either.
I was looking at because guess who's not winning the title this year?
Detroit.
Well, I'm just going on.
I'm just looking at FanDuel.
You edited FanDuel's list to fit your preferences.
Just say Golden State plus they were like 25 and five with Butler and Steph Curry.
Put a little respect on Steph Curry's name.
That's all I'm saying.
Sure.
Listen, it took them seven games to beat that flawed Houston team last year.
And I don't know what's going to be different as everybody's a year older.
Like they're going to be healthier this year.
We went through this with LeBron for the entire 2020.
It's like old guys get banged up as the season goes on.
This is how it goes.
I'm betting on youth every time.
Look, I have already said the window is closed, in my opinion on this iteration of the Steph Warriors winning title.
That's close.
And I don't see a roadmap for them to get back to prominence.
That does not include a lightning strike, trade or free agency signing which, of course, is possible.
But I think they're in a more precarious position as a franchise than perhaps anyone but their diehardiest diehards realize right now.
If I gave you Dallas 40-1, Boston 50-1, San Antonio 55-1 and Milwaukee 55-1 and I told you one of those teams was going to win the title, with those odds, which one would you guess?
Milwaukee.
So I had that as well.
And it's a simple equation.
Giannis plus East.
Yeah.
And he gets to the finals, and then it just becomes a best guy in the series game.
Yeah, you'd probably need some injury luck during the finals on the other team.
So when I did my ringer 100 exercise, the sobering part was there were only two bucks in the hundred.
I had Giannis and Miles Turner and nobody else on the bucks.
Not a good sign. for the season.
I want to talk about that.
Let's take one more quick break and then we'll talk about that.
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All right, we're jumping into a special part of the show brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV.
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This is a perfect day for us because we have an Ireland game, right?
The Thursday game with the Ireland game.
And then they actually staggered the early and the late games perfectly.
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Chargers Giants, Chargers 3-0, Jackson Darts first start.
That's a must watch.
Philly-Tampa, awesome game.
We saw it in the playoffs last year.
Two 3-0 teams.
Got to lock that one in.
Cleveland, Detroit.
So Detroit just looked awesome in Baltimore.
And then Cleveland has the makings of it's a top three defense.
We'll see if it travels on the road.
I think that's the third one.
And then for me personally, I would have Pat's Panthers because I'm a Patriots fan.
But I think the right choice is probably Washington and Atlanta.
We'll see if Atlanta can bounce back from an embarrassing loss to Carolina.
Washington on the road. indoors.
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So I mailed you my preliminary ring 100.
And one of the things I did was I wrote down the teams with how many players they had.
And I did this last year and it really helped crystallize in my head.
SGA 2, Jalen Williams 11, Chet 18, and then you still have Dork, Caruso, Hartenstein, and Wallace.
It's interesting.
The only other team that had more than five was Minnesota.
Who I had at five?
Anthony Edwards, and then 47 59 62, 72 and 90.
So that's six guys, including DiFincenzo, who I think is one of the best 100 players in the league.
And nobody else had more than...
More than five.
Denver, I had five.
Knicks, five.
Houston, five.
They had six before Van Vliet.
And then after that, it's four or less.
I think that matters.
I think you have to think about the league that way.
And if somebody has six of the top 90 guys, including a top seven guy, they should be one of the title favorites, in my opinion.
Look, I mean, I think Minnesota is underrated.
We agree.
I don't have them in the same.
I did not have them quite in the same.
I had them knocking on the Houston Denver tier.
I think Denver is better than them.
Although again, as I've said repeatedly, Minnesota fans.
They now have a track record against Denver and against Jokic that could not be dismissed.
It cannot be ignored as a fluke.
There's something there.
I think you may have DiVincenzo a little bit overrated.
I would take a couple of guys and put them in the top 100 over him, but it's fine either way.
Yeah, I think they're tough as hell.
Their defense is going to be solid.
I said this last week with Mahoney.
I just think there's something structurally just slightly askew with their team that manifests itself at the highest.
Like, there always seemed to be one playmaker short.
Like, half a playmaker short.
Half a shooter short.
Or one of each.
Just something You know.
And then figuring out the big man rotation among those three guys is always They're just something like that.
Just can't quite click into place with their rotation.
But they're very, very good.
If Dillingham was actually playable... and impactful as a bench guy this year.
Does that change their ceiling for you?
Sure.
And I think Shannon is going to be playable as a bench guy as well.
And Clark, maybe too.
Jalen Clark, they tried him against Oklahoma City in the conference finals last year.
He wasn't quite ready for it.
But Shannon was ready.
And again Dillingham as the playmaker, the straight line drive guy.
That's a missing piece for them.
But they're just rock solid.
Rock fucking solid.
It's just their biggest problem.
I said this to Mahoney.
Their biggest problem is the same problem that everyone else in the West has is that the Thunder are just incredible and young and only going to be getting better.
The Thunder who was hiding the Jalen Williams wrist injury that they never told us about from the last basically, three months of the season, including the playoffs.
So just from that alone, they're probably going to be better.
I think it's funny that these three teams are all in the same division.
OKC, Denver, Minnesota, not that divisions matter.
But I'm wondering, they changed... I always forget this.
They changed the seeds a little bit, right?
So you could...
We could potentially have OKC in, I'm sorry, Denver and Minnesota as the 2-3, or is that impossible?
No, I think that's possible.
I think division, they've reduced it to like a tiebreaker thing in like very rare scenarios.
So your Minnesota case that you made about how well they've matched up with Denver over the years, that might be our 2-3.
Could be.
Right?
I assume OKC is going to... going to win it again.
Yeah.
So going through that, that top 100, which was just a fun exercise for my brain.
I had Denver with number one, 40, 44, 66, and 74.
And I would not, I didn't have Michael Porter on my list.
So Cam Johnson is basically a free ad for them.
I, I think they're the best I think they're still the best bet for the odds right now, plus 750.
Them or Minnesota.
Because you're basically, if you're betting against OKC, those would be the two teams I would do it with.
Because I think the winner comes out of the West.
They took Oklahoma City to seven games last year, with Michael Porter Jr playing with one arm and a pretty flawed and shallow roster.
To the point they're like hey, Julian Strother, can you have like two straight miracle games for us after doing nothing the whole season for us to survive in this series?
What about?
What about Russ, who was just cast aside immediately after, who actually had moments where he played real minutes in that series?
Yeah.
Unsigned.
Unsigned.
Well, we didn't talk about that.
Is there a Houston maybe on that?
I mean I wouldn't do it, but they've lived the experience already in a complete what feels like a completely different league and a completely different universe.
But do you think there were texts?
Raphael stone and the doka and a couple of people, there was a Russell Westbrook.
What are your thoughts text?
I don't think we're on.
I don't think so.
I don't think so.
Yeah, not even a text thread still too fresh, any interesting on Russ no okay, the thing with Denver that's worrisome is in your, in your rank, not worrisome, but like, from your rankings perspective, is 140 number one and then the second guy is 40, like that's it.
That's a lot on number one to do that, like they need Jamal Murray to play himself back into, like the killer playoff guy, Jamal Murray, who was closer to like 20 than 40.
And I had Orlando.
And I probably had Franz at, I think, 49, which is probably too high.
I should lower him into the lower 40s.
That was one of my notes.
You have Franz below three spots lower than his teammate Jalen Suggs, which to me is Yeah, I got to fix that.
But regardless, they have four of the top 50 now with Bane included.
So...
You know, we'll see if the supporting cast can come through.
But as you looked at this preliminary list that I laid out... Wait, wait, wait.
Can we stop for a minute?
Four of the top 50?
For Orlando, yeah.
Franz, Paolo, Bain, and Suggs.
Suggs is just a no-brainer top 50 player for you.
I love Suggs.
Now the Orlando fans are going to get mad at you.
Well, that's fine.
I mean, there's like 17 of them.
They can only do so much damage.
I mean, I just want to...
The season fell apart when he got hurt last year.
I love Gian Suggs.
He's great.
Love everything about him.
Love the way he plays.
Don't love that he's a career 33% three-point shooter.
But more than that, I don't love that he played 48 games, 53 games, 75 games, and 35 games.
Can I get a little bit more availability before I just pencil you in as a top 50 player in the world's greatest basketball league?
That's all.
Would you rather have him, LaMelo Ball, or Tyler Hero this season?
You're going to make me say it.
You're going to make me say it.
You're going to make me say it.
I'm going with LaMelo Ball.
I'm going down with the ship.
It's a fun ship to be on.
It's neon green, highlighter yellow, whatever it is.
Everyone's dressed funny.
I'm going down with the LaMelo Ball ship.
You know, I almost put Knipple in the top 100.
I thought about it because I think he's going to be immediately good.
I looked for him in the top 20 and I was like, oh, I guess he's somewhere in the 50s or 60s.
But they do have four guys with a top 100 case now if Knipple's good, right?
So there's at least the signs of something.
Now, I have no idea who their center is going to be.
Like, no idea.
Maybe Knipple, small ball five.
Just jack of all trades.
There's a Plumlee still on that team.
There's a saloon as an undersized center.
Salon.
Salon, whatever his name is.
I like calling him saloon.
They like the Kalkbrenner kid that they drafted from Creighton, I believe.
I think he was a defensive player of the year, like multiple times in whatever conference Creighton is in now.
If he went to Creighton, I could be completely wrong.
He did go to Creighton.
Yeah, so anyway, with this top 100, to me, Jokic SGA, Giannis Luka and Edwards have to be the top five in that order.
And then the question for me is, is it a top five or a top six?
Do you have Wemby in that top tier yet, or do you want to see him play a full season and be on a team that's above 500 before you give him top-level status?
Well, these are forward-looking rankings, right?
The idea is to project for the season.
This season.
Yeah.
I'm ready to put him in the top six tier.
I just think, if I'm projecting forward what he's going to be this year and what the Spurs can be this year, I'm just like I'm going to put him in there.
He's already going to be, by some order of magnitude, the most destructive and defensive force in the NBA.
And so that's like half of the game is played on that end of the floor and he's single-handedly dominating it at all times.
And so I think the offense will come up a tick on every possible metric and in every possible skill.
So I'm going.
Let's put him in the initial top six tier.
Okay.
Because I do feel like then you go into Mitchell and Brunson and Curry and Cade.
And I just think Wemby's ceiling is just higher than those guys.
Like he could be the destructive kick-ass force on a really great team.
The Dallas Mavericks...
So the three teams before we go, the three teams where I'm like I don't know what to expect this year Dallas, Boston and Indiana.
Where I think those are the teams with the most floors in the building between the basement and the top floor.
And Dallas, if Kyrie can somehow come back and be pretty competent, March, April range.
And if Flagg is as good as I think he's going to be.
I think Dallas is going to be really good.
And I think they're kind of lurking as us going in March like, holy shit, Dallas is good now.
So I just think it's notable that their odds were as bad as they were.
I actually quite like their team.
I agree with you that they're hard to project.
I think they're more a 26-27 team than a 25-26 team because you led it with Kyrie.
I got to see that first because with D'Lo in his spot and the trickle-down effect of that to the bench guards, I think they'll be solid and defensively pretty solid, assuming AD stays relatively healthy.
I can't get further than that in the West.
And also, I just still think that I still think that they're going to have to figure this out.
We really want to play AD at the four for like 75% of his minutes.
Do we really think that's a good idea?
Because I'm not sure that that's a good idea.
So they play Lively or Gafford with AD and flag altogether.
And they're just like, nobody's doing anything around 15 feet from the basket anymore.
And we're getting all the rebounds.
That was the vision when they made the Luka trade among many other visions that were unveiled.
It's so weird that I kind of like it.
I don't mind it.
I just think, offensively you've got to figure out what Anthony Davis is doing besides spotting up for 18-foot jump shots that no one cares to really defend very hard.
Are we sure he's still on the team in February?
Oh, my God.
Well, I do... You know, it's like...
I mean, given what they did to get him, I think it would be pretty catastrophic for him to not be on the team, even optically.
But they didn't know they were getting Cooper Flagg when they made the trade.
No, they did not.
What are you talking about?
That was the vision.
What did he say?
Like the plan is coming to fruition now?
I forgot.
Apologies to Nico.
Nico did have the vision.
But I will say I did this whole thing on veteran extensions yesterday and how difficult it is to suss these out for guys who are making an enormous amount of money.
AD is not eligible now.
Next summer, he is.
And I think that becomes one of the most interesting extension cases in the NBA.
How do you extend Anthony Davis at age 33 or 32?
Whatever he's going to be coming off a 585 million contract or a 54 million contract, going into a 58 million contract.
That's That's hard, man.
That's a big decision.
I'd be very nervous about that.
For a team that didn't want to pay Luka, the Supermax, right?
That's one of the reasons they got out of the Luka business.
It's just too much money.
So what's AD's next contract going to be?
And now Luka's built like The Rock.
This is fucking ripped.
I mean, this was all incredibly predictable, right?
Like, this is all we said.
I didn't have a job when he got traded.
I still said it anyway.
Like if this doesn't light a fire under his ass to get in better shape, to get in the best shape he's ever been in, like nothing will.
And all of a sudden, it's like, oh, here he is on the cover of freaking Men's Health.
Men's Health breaking stories.
I didn't see that coming.
I loved it.
It's a great PR strategy.
Like, you know what?
You know who we should go to?
Men's Health.
Yeah, who knew?
He kind of revived him.
I'm very excited for the Luka MVP.
I know we'll be talking about it all season, but Luka never having won the MVP and still being plus 380 on FanDuel when it feels like he would be the favorite for me.
I just don't see a scenario where he's not fucking awesome this season.
I keep hearing this on podcasts that shall not be named.
Like, my sneaky MVP is a hot take.
I think Luka's going to be at the center of the MVP discussion.
Like, you think so?
He's going to be at the center of the MVP discussion?
Yeah, obviously.
Also, the best narrative.
Giannis at 12 to one is not not intriguing because he could just single handedly drag Milwaukee to like 52 and 30 and have the greatest year he's ever had.
And plus now with Thanasis at his side, you know, like a bird McHale type thing.
It's really interesting because if Luka puts up his normal numbers over, let's say, 75 games, I mean those top four guys put up stats where it's like I don't even know what.
Yeah, they're like brain breakers.
If Jokic averages 30-10-10 and breaks the efficiency records again, it's like you have to sort of come up with a case against him.
And Shea, to his credit, was so outrageously good last year and matched him in all the metrics that he did it.
But it's just...
When you're talking about oh, could Cinderella MVP candidates?
Could Donovan Mitchell play his window?
It's like, I love Donovan Mitchell.
It's just a different stratosphere of player.
We saw the best possible MVP campaign from Mitchell last year, and he had no chance.
They won 64 games, and he was the best guy in the team.
And he wasn't even like...
It's like Cade.
You and I both love Cade.
I've always loved Cade.
He's a sneaky MVP candidate.
I'm like, I don't think I like Cade, but that's maybe sneaky fifth ballot spot candidate.
Do you think there Is there a Malik Beasley getting signed this year possibility where he just sneaks on to a really good team as a wild card?
Have you heard anything about that?
I have not heard much except that...
I think that there's a lot of frustration from the players' union about how this all unfolded, the timing of it, how it was leaked, where it was leaked, and they're trying to figure out exactly what to do about it.
Yeah, because it unquestionably cost them...
$40 million.
And he's been cleared, but not really cleared like, according to the reporting, like he's still being.
I don't remember what the terminology was, but they're still looking at him, but he's been.
I don't know what it was.
So I don't know if that haze is still too thick for teams to look at him.
But yeah, I mean, look it's Before we go.
What awkward pre.
Oh, we never talked about Boston, Indiana.
Let's do it.
Let's do it really quick.
Yeah.
We talked about Dallas, high ceiling, low floor.
Boston, Indiana is weird because we have no idea if they're just going to toss away the season.
Halliburton is definitely not coming back.
Tatum, who knows?
The Celtics are saying he's not coming back, but I don't know.
You know it'll be 10 months like mid right after the all-star break right around his birthday, which has been floated around in circles about.
Could he be back on his birthday on March 3rd?
That's 10 months from the injury.
We've talked in the past about He had the surgery within 10 hours in New York, never flew.
This would be like the greatest test case for it.
Could somebody actually come back?
And he had the real surgery because there's two ways to do it where, like Dame had the other type of surgery where they do the.
It's like a almost like a patch and you can come back faster, but it's not a hundred percent.
I think Clay had that too.
Tatum had that.
We're fixing this.
And if you're the Celtics, you can't not think like well, what happens if he's 100 and scrimmaging in February?
And what are we just going to do, not play him?
So I don't know the answer to that, and I don't think they do either.
I just know I would be nervous bringing a guy off an Achilles' tear back, let's say mid-March, optimistically right.
Super optimistically.
Be like hey, we're fighting like hell to get into the play-in tournament or stay in the play-in tournament.
Yeah, we're in eighth seed.
And if we do that, then we're going to play New York in the first round of the playoffs.
I just That would make me make me nervous.
I i'm, you know, i'm lower on boston and i don't know what their over under is, but i just think their lack of depth has been.
Now they'll turn my not into something and garza will get free reign to just chuck threes.
I just think their their depth, their depth chart is like a whole bunch of question marks after, like the, the six best guys on the team who are good, who are good one of whom is anthony simons is like did the celtics even want anthony simons?
I'm not even sure about that.
I did uh, I flew back from Boston on Saturday night and I did my first wave of MBA research on the flight as I watched terrible movies on.
AMC are terribly good movies.
I should say like taken movies.
I've seen a million times taken, um, What was the other one?
I've never seen that.
You've never seen Taken?
You have a daughter.
It's a must watch if you have a daughter.
Why?
It's just a guy trying to save his daughter.
But she gets kidnapped.
It sounds horrible.
He gets her back.
In the end, he kills a thousand Albanians and gets her back.
You got to watch it.
But yeah, so I laid out the starters and the bench, like the depth chart.
And I don't think I must have been in denial or lying to myself, but when I actually saw it laid out I was like, oh my, I had Boucher and Hauser in the starting lineup.
Yeah, when you write it down, you're like, oh, this is what happened.
Shireman playing?
One of your three, Your best guy, gets hurt, and then we trade two of our other key guys to dump money.
Like, yes.
And Horford is like... playing for the Warriors apparently at some point.
It's like, it's a lot of atrophy.
Hugo Gonzalez might play?
Like you just, and then Tatum with three question marks.
And it's just, it's pretty grim.
The good thing for them is they have the infrastructure with the style they play and the coaching staff.
They have multiple guards that are going to be able to you know, handle the ball, shoot.
Jalen will take 25 shots a game.
That's what I want to ask you.
What do you want to see from Jalen Brown this year?
What's like the Bill Simmons just.
This was a lost season from a contention perspective, but we learned X, Y and Z about Jalen Brown and I'm thrilled about that.
What does that look like?
Well, I thought it was interesting.
I looked at the FanDuel... points per game leader odds you can bet on.
So like Shea is plus 165.
Luka is five to one.
Just who's going to lead the league in points per game.
And Jalen was 50 to one.
Is it.
Would it be if I told you he was going to average 32 a game next season?
What would be your reaction to that?
I would say that that's, I mean, 32 is, what did Shea average?
Shea was about there, but I would say that's, A lot.
I would say 29 would be a realistic high target.
To go from 23 and 22 the last two years to 32 is, even amid this new What's, the highest that he's gotten to.
26.6 two years ago.
Three years ago.
Yeah, so 26.6 in the 23 season.
He took 20 shots a game.
If you give him four more shots a game and he makes two of them, I'm now at 30.
I mean, and you give him more free throws.
He only got the line five times a game that should be higher, too.
I mean, look, 50 to 1 is a great bet.
50 to 1 is a great bet.
From everything we know about Jalen Brown, whether he's right or wrong, he's definitely going into this season, going I've got this until JT comes back.
And he's going to he's going to we've seen it.
We saw it in the games when Tatum didn't play.
And Jalen Brown's like, finally, it's like the understudy in the Hamilton production.
Like, finally, I get to be the Lin-Manuel Miranda part.
So I don't know.
I think they could hang around with three point shooting.
And I just I've heard that they watch out.
They're going to tank because they don't they have their pick.
I just don't think Missoula is capable of it.
The man is a maniac.
My worry about the Jalen Brown scenario you outlined is like the how does he get there?
Is he getting there by just taking a shit ton of shots and you end up like you averaged 30 on 44 percent shooting and 31 percent from three and didn't didn't evolve as a playmaker.
Like that's that's my worry.
That's not a big worry because you want to see him like the offense is running through him, but he's actually not.
Like I'm just going to shoot a shitload of shots.
And I'm going to actually set up my guards.
We're going to play off me.
I'm going to find open shooters.
I'm going to play really smart basketball.
Like I don't think he's going to turn into a 10 assists a game guy or even a seven or eight assists a game guy, but like jack it up a little bit.
And and yeah, I don't want like if he's just taking a bunch of tough mid range shots the entire season, even more than usually takes.
Like I'm not sure that that's what I want to see, although he's going to have to do more shooting, obviously.
Yeah.
The Celtics have Boucher and Garza right now as the center combo with some Keita.
And the Boston, the people that cover the team think Keita is going to be the starter.
I'll believe that when I see it.
But if you compare them to Indiana, who lost Halliburton and Turner...
I actually think Indiana is a more likely fuck it, let's suck this year candidate, right?
Jairus Walker will play so that they could.
Maybe he'll fill minutes somewhere because they didn't have them in the playoffs.
But other than that, what else do they do?
Well, they have depth, right?
Like they have, they, they were deep last year.
So that definitely helped them now.
I, you know, and they signed like, you know, Jay Huff could, can play 15 minutes a game.
Isaiah Jackson's coming back.
Like they have depth.
Furfy.
I love just saying furfy.
I want furfy.
A little furf.
Furf.
The furf man.
Yeah.
Furfy.
Um, And talk about a maniac coach who's going to just like scheme his way to 35 wins on a down year.
Like it's Rick Carlisle.
Like to me.
That's the down, like the almost boring Indiana prediction is.
I don't know what their over under is.
I'd probably take the under, because I just think that their entire identity is wrapped up in one guy who's not going to play.
But I could see them being having a down year and it being like 32 and 50 or something like that.
I'm a lower on them.
I just think that what they lost is a lot.
Who do you think has a higher over-under, Boston or Indiana, for the season?
Boston.
Yep.
Boston's 41 and a half.
Indiana's 37 and a half.
That seems right to me on both counts.
I would probably take the under on... Well, we're going to do this at some point.
Indiana, 37 and a half.
And it could really end up being like 22 and 60 if they just said, fuck it.
I don't think it can get to.
They'd have to organizationally make a decision that Siakam has a fake sprained ankle and you know, trade McConnell and do some stuff.
Because I just think they're going to be tough and nasty and play smart.
And like Nembhard and Siakam are good.
Like that's not a terrible fallback.
Like now we're a 22 win team.
I mean...
So they lose Hal burn, right?
Obviously was the top 15 guy, but they are equipped to kind of patch together some of his stats.
Cause shepherd he'll play more Nembhard McConnell.
Like they could kind of patch together some guard stats, the Turner thing.
I don't know how they I don't know how they've fixed that with Isaiah Jackson and whatever the counter to that would be.
Turner was terrible in the finals and was pretty up and down in the playoffs.
Yeah.
Yeah, he's generally an up-and-down player.
I think he'll fit well with Giannis.
I do like Walker.
Should I buy more Walker stock?
I already have a bunch.
I don't think you need to buy that much more.
If you have a bunch, I wouldn't go crazy.
I'll keep what I have.
So you think Indiana more likely to be like yeah, let's throw this year away and wait for our guy to come back?
I don't think either.
No, I would say they're less likely, because I think they're deeper and their coach might be more of a maniac than even Missoula is about just scheming to win every single possession of every single game.
What TV shows are you watching?
Other than the Mets disaster.
Hey, stop.
Stop now.
We're not out of it yet.
What are we watching?
We currently, you know, I got to say, Couldn't get their task?
No, too violent for my wife.
I would say a couple of things.
Was she a pacifist?
She just doesn't like violence.
It scares her.
She's just out on all the violent shows.
Violence and unpleasant suspense.
She's just like, I'm not spending my leisure time doing that.
Wow.
Number one on the list right now is The Great British Bake Off.
Huge fan.
I've seen every season.
I'm a big fan.
Great British Bake Off corner might replace Mets corner if the Mets don't make the playoffs.
This hurts me a little bit to say.
I don't know if you watch this show.
It was right in our spousal Venn diagram.
Only murders in the building charm is kind of wearing off on me.
Never got into it.
I think that's all we got going right now.
Am I forgetting?
Are you a morning show family?
No, no.
I'm weirdly uninterested.
Should I be interested?
Is it preachy?
It seems preachy to me.
I don't like preachy.
It is a self-parody of a self-parody of a self-parody and a very enjoyable hour for my wife and I.
Lots of jokes.
That's probably our number one.
We're making jokes the entire time we're watching that show.
Oh, you're making jokes.
The show is not making jokes.
No, the show is very serious, and they make decisions on the show that you just can't fathom.
Speaking of funny one of the things I just want a show to make me fucking laugh a lot and I'm missing that in my life.
I want to laugh.
I want a joke show.
And Joanna Robinson recommended it.
We did a whole segment where I was like, here's what my wife's TV taste is.
Here's what mine is.
Here are a couple of shows we really love together.
Recommend one for us.
And her number one draft choice was Party Down.
And we did Party Down.
Party Down was just rock solid.
The highs weren't that high, but the floor was high.
It was pretty funny the whole time.
Good recommendation, Joanna.
The porn party episode is a personal all-timer for me.
It's one of the funniest half hours of the 2000s.
That's a good one.
That was a good one.
Yeah, that was a good show.
I mean, that's a short.
There's like 20 episodes and they're all short, you know?
I would test drive Morning Show season one with the wife, because it's also like they're doing it during this, like covid, me too era and it's very self-conscious about all the stuff's going and they're just clumsily blowing through all these crazy storylines.
It's about a morning show, but it's a couple years at behind where we are.
So like right now they're doing the 2024 olympics for this this season And they're kind of also going back and commentating on and it's just, it's a, it's a must watch.
I mean, it's, I see it.
It's a mess.
I see it come up on the TV is like recommended for you or this and that.
And I'm always like, yeah, you know, it could be a mess.
Could be.
Yeah.
That's all I got going right now.
You're not a bake off guy.
My wife likes that show.
I've never been like a cooking show person.
It's like taken.
Neither have I. And I can't cook and I don't like cooking and I sure as hell don't bake.
It's just like stepping into a warm bubble bath.
It's so pleasant.
Just everything about it is so pleasant.
I love everybody on the show, even Paul Hollywood, who's sort of the villain of the show.
It's just wonderful.
It's just a great time.
I want to say Mina Kimes is on that show this year for... an episode.
I think that's the show she went on.
She went on a cook.
I think that was the show.
There's an, there was an American, there was an American version, like an American knockoff.
Uh, same franchise, like same people.
That maybe maybe, that would be very if she suddenly appears on the actual great British baking show, filmed in a tent in England somewhere, I'm going to go crazy.
Okay.
Zach Lowe, good to see you.
We have your podcast.
It's at least twice a week.
Sometimes there'll be emergency episodes.
If Giannis gets traded to the Rockets, you'll probably hear from Zach.
You can find it on YouTube.
Just dropping that at the end of a podcast.
Well, who knows if something crazy happens.
Good to see you as always.
Always fun, sir.
All right.
I'm here with Chris Ryan, Sean fantasy.
We just did a two hour rewatchables that is running next Monday for Redford month.
Yeah.
Um, but there was a topic I want to talk to you guys about, about Las Vegas.
Um, when did you move here?
2012.
When did you move here?
2012.
So there was an article today about Las Vegas is doing this big five-day sale.
They tweeted out from the... This is not sponsored by Las Vegas, by the way.
Big sale, hotels, restaurants, everything off.
And the reason they're doing it is because Las Vegas, the tourism, has really declined.
And I was on a couple of different text threads about this because we all thought it was really interesting.
What's going on with Las Vegas?
What has changed over the last 30 years?
What are the reasons why?
Tourism post-COVID where all this other stuff movie theaters are doing great, people are back at sporting events, all normal lifestyle feels like it's back and Vegas is in bad shape.
So why?
What's your theory, CR?
Gosh, I mean, where do you want to start?
I think Vegas is pretty unique in that it's one of the only places you would go to lose more money.
And so it's not just the price of the hotel and the price of the restaurants and the price of valet parking and the price of everything.
Then you are also pricing in, I might get cleaned out and I might not be able to help myself.
And if you can gamble on sports, at least pretty much anywhere, and there's obviously, like friendly games everywhere you want to go.
Making that trip and chalking up.
You know you can either lose the flight and the hotel or you can go somewhere nice and not have to lose thousands of dollars gambling.
I think people are just making that choice.
But there's also like a ton of other reasons I could think of.
Sean, you still road trip down there to poker every so often.
Do you like once a year?
I do.
For 10 years, I went every November to see friends because one of my best friends lives there.
And this is kind of related to some of my thoughts about it.
I still think it's fun to go there.
I do think it is a little bit hard to gamble in the way that I like to gamble there.
And obviously sports betting has changed a lot too.
So the idea of it being a destination for sports betting has gotten complicated over the years.
But the thing that struck me, I'm not saying this is the primary reason, but it is a reason.
When the Golden Knights went there and it started to become a destination home for professional sports, it started to feel more like any other city.
And when I was driving in a couple of years ago and I saw a Legion on the way in, you know right when you're coming in into the strip, and a Legion is on the left there and it was a football stadium and it was like driving into Chicago or driving into Philly and it lost the kind of the kind of uniqueness that made Vegas Vegas.
Where Vegas was really only one thing.
You didn't even really think about Vegas as a place where people lived when you visited.
You visited and you were like, everybody here is in a hotel.
And we're all gambling casinos.
Yeah, I remember hearing somebody lived in Vegas and be like, what?
Yeah.
They live in Summerlin.
What?
It's like every day they're here.
How do they survive?
But when a city has sports teams...
It's a town.
It's a residential place.
You know, it's a place where there is a fandom.
There is like a, there's a community of people that live there.
There's nothing wrong with it being coming a community, but it feels different.
It gives it a different energy and it feels like a factor as to why it's not as unique or special to go there as maybe it was 10 or 50 years ago.
Yeah, I have so many.
I think those are both really good reasons.
I also feel like, because I started going there mid-90s, right?
And it was.
I'm not saying it was underground, but it was just you went, you shared a hotel room with two people or four people.
You didn't really care about where you ate at all.
It's like, let's go get two slices of pizza.
Let's go, the buffet is cheap.
Even if you're treating yourself, you're going to get a steak.
For people in their 20s and their 30s, the ancillary stuff never mattered.
It was like, where are we gambling?
How much blackjack are we playing?
Are we playing poker?
Are we playing craps?
All your money kind of went toward the gambling part, at least for my groups or everything I saw.
And nobody was ever like, we got to go to Rao's tonight.
I heard it's awesome.
You didn't think that way.
You didn't think like, we're going to have this three-hour dinner from 8 to 11.
How about we're going to go see Adele?
You know what I mean?
Now, granted, I am in a very small... I was a giant sports fan.
We would go.
We really wanted to just gamble.
But we never cared about the other stuff.
We'd maybe ride the roller coaster once.
I think people would go and they would want to go see Wayne Newton or when we went... Older people.
The people in their 20s or 30s were going for specific things.
It's like, I can gamble on sports here.
I can play blackjack with my friends here.
I can play poker.
I can play craps.
Well, the other thing I started noticing, probably maybe 20 years ago, is that the casinos were kind of turning into malls.
And so there were really these big shopping centers that were coming in there.
And a lot of those spaces are really nice, but it's like I'm not going to go to the Prada store when I'm at a casino.
I'm at a casino to play cards.
The only reason I'm there is to drink, see my friends, play cards, maybe swim in the pool and eat at the buffet.
That's all I'm really going to do.
Forget about my 20s and my 40s.
That's all I care about.
But it is more of a like...
It's kind of like a glamour, high-toned destination in a way, but it is still in the middle of the desert.
So it doesn't really make sense, as like Why would you go, Wouldn't you go to Hawaii if you were trying to have a vacation like that?
Like a really expensive, nice vacation?
I think now it's like if you want to party, people go to New Orleans or Austin or Nashville or all sorts of places.
Miami kind of you know like, has had two or three peaks in the time that Vegas was the destination of all bachelor parties and going, clubbing and also gambling.
Well, now it's like there's the F1 weekend.
There's the sports teams that are there.
There's NBA Summer League.
There's then NBA, the actual cup thing.
And MLB is going to be there too.
Big boxing, UFC, MLB is going to be there.
WNBA is there.
So there's sports and big stuff happening constantly, which is better if you live there than if you're visiting.
If I'm visiting...
And I've always wondered this.
You go for NBA Cup, right?
Or Summer League, yeah.
Or Summer League, whatever.
And we went there for 2018, 2019, and we did a dinner, right?
And you have this huge dinner.
You're stuffed.
It's not like the kind of mood.
You're like, yeah, now let's go gamble.
I just wonder, did something shift where the gambling became ancillary?
And then the books and the places realized that.
And that's when they started shifting the odds against Blackjack.
Six to five payouts for Blackjack.
And I just feel like it's harder to win, as weird as that sounds.
I have much more fun gambling in New Orleans.
In New Orleans, I feel like I might actually win.
In Vegas, I feel like I'm this cog in the machine that's just going to get crushed.
Yeah, I'm not really such an expert on all of the table games there, but it does feel like it's easier to get crushed now than it did in the past.
Yeah, I'm telling you, I don't think luck turns that much over 30 years.
Well, there was... more fun.
Like now it just seems like they just want you to lose money and get you the fuck out.
I don't know if this is like I don't.
We don't have to get into a huge discussion about like how much private equity is bought into these places and what kind of returns they want on investment.
But, like I do think in the last couple of years, especially like since COVID, when everything went like pretty much contactless with payments, I wonder if they are pumping people more now because of like, just tap your card, just tap your card, just tap your card.
You want to go do this, do this, just tap.
And I used to be like.
I remember the first time we went to Vegas together and I was like I had money in an envelope and I was like, if I tear this envelope open, that's it.
That's all the cash I'm going to spend gambling tonight or something like that.
And now we have kind of reached this sort of like just... just forget about it until tomorrow.
And maybe it's tomorrow for a lot of people.
And they're like I can't fucking afford to go to Vegas because the the big thing about all these events in this country now like when you go.
I went to the Dodgers this week.
It was an awesome time.
Went saw Philly's Dodgers.
I got fucking pumped, man.
It's like 40 bucks for two beers, another 35 for like hot dogs and peanuts.
And then it's, that's not even like parking and everything else.
And you're just like Blu-ray money.
Yeah.
But you're also just like, it's like seven Blu-rays.
Dude, that's several hundred dollars not counting the tickets.
That's crazy.
It's baseball.
The game's not even that long anymore.
It's a good example of, I feel like Vegas was seen especially if you lived on the West Coast as a cheap vacation.
And you might end up losing a lot of money.
But you could drive there.
But staying there and driving there and the accommodations.
And now things are just very elevated.
I mean, there's some amazing hotels and amazing restaurants in Vegas now.
Vegas has gotten really, really...
Tony.
I would say it's one of the best restaurant locations in the world at this point.
It wasn't the whole allure for a while there.
You go and if you're gambling, the drinks are comped and if you stick around long enough, you'll get a comped dinner or breakfast ticket.
It was just way more underground.
The sportsbook piece can't be understated either, because I don't know how many states have legalized gambling now where you can bet somewhere.
That was the number one reason I wanted to go.
I was like we're going to go and we're going to put, And then we'll watch the game in the sportsbook and then we'll make the money and then we'll put that on something.
And that was All we wanted to do was stay in that sportsbook for two days and watch all the games.
And now it's like People would go from March Madness or like the first week of NFL playoffs or whatever.
And now it's like guys sitting at a bar like ambiently betting women's tennis.
Like... putting parlays on like 19 college football games on a random Saturday.
When I did my second book, which ended up being about basketball, I almost did a Vegas book as my second book.
And then I almost did it again as the book after.
And I just I felt like something shifted from the mid 2000s even to the early 2010s, where I'm like this isn't as good of an idea for a book anymore.
Vegas had like this, I used to write about it a lot.
I was some of the, especially on my old website.
That was like some of the pieces that really got the website kind of moving with audience.
And then when I got to ESPN, same thing of like this whole scene in Vegas and just just like you know, basically two, two days, you have a certain amount of money.
Yeah.
There's, you have this anvil hanging over your head the whole time.
You only want, you can only go to the ATM one time a day.
The swingers thing where they embarrass themselves.
Yeah.
But that was aspirational to me.
Yeah.
When I saw that, even though those guys were buffoons, I was like, this is so cool.
They just drive there.
That's amazing.
I was there in April for CinemaCon and we were you know.
And CinemaCon at night is so great for me because I can just like wander around play cards.
Yeah.
And we sat at the sports book, me and Craig and Amanda and Matt Bellamy.
We sat at the sports book for like an hour and a half waiting to go see David Copperfield.
So we're going to go see Copperfield.
I've never seen him before.
And it was dead.
It was a Thursday night in April.
So you've got NBA playoffs.
MLB has just started.
And you've got college sports on.
And there were four people there.
Yeah, I remember when they built Mandalay and Mandalay seemed like the future.
You know, it had this huge sports book, big casino, just about very modern.
And you could see like all of a sudden they were.
You know they.
I can't remember when Paris went up, but the casinos just got way better.
We used to stay at Treasure Island in the mid nineties and then gradually things got better.
And then there was this moment when they started the whatever happens in Vegas ads thing and enough people were talking about the culture of it that something really happened.
I think it kind of peaks with The Hangover in 2009.
Vegas is such a big part of that movie and that's Kind of the peak.
And now I don't.
Now, if you did a movie in Vegas, I don't even think it would be important that it was in Vegas.
Like, oh, there's Vegas.
I wonder whether or not there is like, If you think of Vegas as like a musical artist or a band, right.
And there's always the question that they face, where it's like do you want your audience to get older with you?
Or do you want to leave them behind?
And if you're talking about your guys specifically, because Vegas has just been It's not been a huge part of my life.
But for you guys, it's like...
There was the degenerate gambling part.
Then there was the what happens in Vegas and it's fun to do a bachelor party there.
And now it's almost like bring your whole family to Vegas.
But you can't really do that.
I mean, you wouldn't do that.
You would take them to Disney World.
You wouldn't want your little kid... at the win.
Me and Sal and our fans, we did a Vegas trip in 06.
And it was this whole different side of Vegas where it's like oh, they have stroller ramps and shit like that.
And it was fun.
Or these wheelchair ramps can also be stroller ramps.
Right, right.
But I think it was more fun for Sal and I. Maybe not as much fun for the wives.
But I think Vegas is a little more built toward it now.
There's another piece of this now about people in their 20s and 30s and what they're doing day to day, and whether you need to go to a place like Vegas in the same way that you did when I was in my mid-20s in 1995, where it was like we didn't have a shitload of options for things to do other than to just go out where you were.
It's like, whoa, we're going to Vegas?
Now it's like...
I don't know.
I just wonder, do people in their 20s, do they want to go out and just gamble for 10 hours?
I mean, I think even beyond the generalization of it, it's just way cheaper to go to New Orleans.
If you were going to do a party trip of some kind.
Is there just more options now?
Is there more stuff to do?
I think Vegas has never actually had more that you can do in Vegas.
But it does take a little bit of the spotlight off of the gaming.
I remember very well in 2019, I had a meetup with a lot of friends in Vegas.
It was basically like my high school reunion.
Me and like 10 guys.
And I vividly remember it was like 8 p.m.
We ate dinner.
We grabbed a drink and we were like let's go gamble for a few hours before we do, whatever happens after that.
And six of us went to go play PyGow and we got absolutely skull fucked by a dealer.
We just got absolutely annihilated.
And PyGow, the whole thing with PyGow was like, it's very communal.
It's kind of low stakes.
You should be able to sit at a PyGow table and play for like an hour, two hours if you want, and only lose like a hundred bucks or gain a hundred bucks or whatever.
And we just got our guts ripped out.
And I remember feeling like maybe we shouldn't gamble for another 24 hours after that, after guys are dropping like 700 at a pie gal table.
And...
It was deflating.
It wasn't fun.
You know, and then now, ever since then, all those guys had kids and now nobody goes to Vegas anymore.
That's the other thing that happened.
But if it's ever going to make a comeback, it's not going to be defined as like a gambling trip.
I don't think it's going to be a different version.
It's going to be like, let's go eat at great restaurants and go to the pool with our kids.
This pop star has a residency.
Exactly.
Go see Selena Gomez.
I just think it has to decide.
Is it for degenerates or for everyone?
You know, is it for this is my secret shame or like this is what I look forward to all year.
It's like my weekend.
I think Vegas already decided.
I think that's part of the problem.
They want to be for everybody.
They want to have the best restaurants and the best entertainers.
The sphere is a huge piece of this.
Now you go to Vegas for the experience of the sphere.
Instead of 25 years ago.
You went because it's like I just want to play blackjack with my buddy, Jim Grady, for eight straight hours.
And that's what, that's what we want to do.
Now it's like, we're going to the sphere because so-and-so is playing there.
And then we're going to go to, you know, the WrestleMania is two days later.
He has a restaurant there.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And it's just different.
A friend of mine is pitching a project to the sphere right now.
And he was telling me about it and he, It sounds like a really cool thing.
I hope it happens for him.
But that becoming like a billion dollar industry too.
It just takes all of the attention off of the other things that you think of as Vegas being Vegas.
Like.
The idea of going to Vegas to go watch a movie in a giant circle is crazy, but people are doing it.
I wonder how many people who go to the sphere or go say to a UFC fight then also gamble.
I wonder how many, how it's reoriented.
UFC's interesting because UFC ends around... It's like 11?
It starts 7 to 10, so basically you're out of there.
It's like 10.30 at night.
So at that point, you're either doing late dinner or you're just going to gamble.
But either way, it's just not what it would have been 30 years ago.
Same thing for when the NBA Cup was there.
We need to get another...
Yu Hao, Sal, and Chang session though at the tables.
I do feel like that's some of the all-time best BS pod.
That was like some of the best content we ever had.
But I feel like even that feels like it's from another era.
I still feel like I was at the Blue Note watching guys play like when I watched him and Chang.
I think Vegas would probably say this is, this is what we wanted.
Like we have way nicer casinos.
We have a million restaurants.
We have all these different teams and all these different places to see live events.
Like this is, we had to elevate everything we're doing.
And at the same time they're having a massive sale right now to get people to come, because tourism's way down.
So something got broken and I don't even really know what the answer is.
But there are other factors.
I mean, there was a terrible shooting there that happened.
You know that chilled a lot for a little while.
Um, I don't know.
It's like, I don't really believe in the younger people don't want community thing though.
I think it's kind of the opposite and gambling like that's a fun road trip to take with your friends to go for 48 hours and go six, eight people and go have fun.
But it might just be too expensive is really what it might come down to.
That's what I think it is.
It might just be like, I can't afford to stay at these hotels.
That would be my number one reason.
And it's hidden costs.
It's like the things where you're just like, whoa, like, $65 a day to valet park or whatever.
I'm sure that there are like more affordable hotels that I'm thinking of that have better deals.
I'm just saying.
Well, that's why I led with what it costs when we used to go.
And we would go four to a room.
I always used to.
I've told this story before.
I always used to share a bed with my buddy Bish, because we had mastered how to like never have our bodies touch ever.
I went one way, he went the other way.
But we, you know.
CR likes to go dick to dick.
CR goes face to face.
Yeah.
But all we were thinking about, with everything other than the gambling, was how to save as much money as possible.
We never wanted to spend more than $10 on dinner.
We were like, oh, that place has chicken.
It was all the money went toward not being there at one in the morning out of money, while our friends were still playing, being like well, what the fuck am I going to do now?
I hit my limit.
But you were in a strain of degenerate, where it was like this is the most important thing in the world to me.
But it really was.
He built an oasis in the desert.
He did.
It became my oasis.
You did.
You were like Ace Rothstein in Casino.
So you said like, you wonder if young people, they don't care about having the community.
I think they do.
No, I think they do.
I think they do.
I just think it shouldn't be too expensive.
But I think they can find it in better ways.
Yeah, exactly.
You can find a community fucking online with people you didn't even meet.
Us going to Vegas all hanging out together, and then all the stories we would have from all the crazy dealers and the crazy person that sat at a table.
We would be talking about it for three weeks after.
Now, I mean, there's so many dopamine fixes you can get in 2025 online and however else.
I don't think it's the same.
I think you hit on something.
That is How do I make this sound not like I've discovered gold or something?
Yeah.
When I was a teenager and I'd never been to Vegas, we never took a family vacation to Vegas.
I had an idea of what Vegas was like in my head, right?
And it was, it probably was more like casino, right?
It was like, we're going to the Flamingo.
We're wearing suits.
And Don Rickles is there and he's performing.
Yeah.
The Rat Pack is around.
And then you get to Vegas and it is not that, right?
It's not glamorous in the 2000s and in the 2010s.
Like it is a little bit more broken down and has a charm to it that you can get really interested in.
You can discover where are the good places to eat and where are the good places to go.
What are the right rooms for the games that you like to play?
And then it did start to flip, I guess right around the 2010s, where it started to get more elevated and you lost a little bit of that social culture.
That was an interesting part of it.
Conversely, if you're a kid now, you can see what everything is like online.
Even just Yelp alone reveals what those hidden worlds.
When we were in the 1990s, I had Encarta and that's how I learned information on my computer.
There were no photos or reviews, let alone YouTube and tours.
The way that you can conquer Disney World now on YouTube, and they just show you every single thing inside of it.
Yeah, that's a good point.
When you went to Disney World when you were five, you were like, Is this place actually magic?
Crucially like Disney now is like don't worry about any of that stuff because if you pay enough you can skip one.
And I think that that is like another thing where people are like is there any limit to how much I'll get charged to do something that used to just be?
You pay this thing to get in the gate and then everything inside is sort of like more or less set up fairly for you.
I mean, things were always expensive, but I do think that there's something weird about like, When you look at your bill from like you stay at one of the hotels, you're just like what the fuck are all these like towel fees and resort fees and, you know, parking fees?
And you're just like, I didn't use the parking.
Like, why am I getting charged for this or something like that?
There's just, like, a lot of crazy stuff there.
Yeah, all the porn you ordered.
That's right.
And this is all part of my platform when I become the governor of Nevada.
That's right.
Yeah, so I don't really, I wish I had a better answer for what Vegas should do.
But I think they're so far down the road with what they became.
I don't know if there's a way to unwind this.
It should just all be the sphere.
You know, they should just put the sphere on top of it.
They might just have to triple down and like definitely get an NBA team.
And maybe it's like, it's not a destination place as much as a place you actually live.
Then it's just Houston, you know?
But I think that's what's happening.
Have you been to a Raiders game there?
Yeah.
I've been there a bunch of times.
I've seen WrestleMania there.
Is there any vibe at the Raiders games?
Is there any atmosphere?
You know what?
I've been to the Raiders Arena.
I haven't been to a Raiders game.
But I've been to WrestleMania there.
I went to SummerSlam there.
It looks like an awesome stadium.
I'd love to go.
The arena's great.
I think a fair amount of people moved there in the last five years.
I think it'll continue to grow.
I'm sure in 15 years, it might be, like you said, like a Houston kind of place.
But it's in a weird moment of transition.
It's so funny.
My buddy Tony, who's lived there for years and years and we went to high school together and he's been a lawyer there for over a decade.
He just got engaged.
Shout out to Tony.
Congratulations.
He waited a long time.
Love Tony.
He did it.
And him getting engaged is kind of like a little mini metaphor for Vegas.
You know, it's like he finally settled down.
I feel like the city has kind of settled down.
It's kind of like we're done being the crazy uncle.
You know, like we're ready to be a normal American city.
We're the dead company.
Also, maybe in the 2020s, we didn't want a crazy uncle anymore.
I wanted a crazy uncle, but maybe most people.
What's the candidate for next great crazy uncle city?
What could just go absolutely apeshit?
It's pieces of Vegas, but it'll never be.
People that Nashville, I think, has gotten a lot of steam.
I still think New Orleans is still awesome.
That's the funny thing about New Orleans compared to Vegas.
I feel like New Orleans is exactly the same from when I was there for the Pats Super Bowl.
Same kind of restaurants.
The food's the same.
The casino's in that one spot in the middle.
And when I go I almost feel like in a good way, I'm going back to like a time warp of like oh, I fucking love New Orleans.
When I go back to Vegas, I'm like, I'm always noticing stuff they added.
You have sensory overload.
How chaotic it was.
Every single chef has a restaurant there now, including our friend Chang has a couple.
And they're just adding, adding, adding.
They built a fucking F1 track.
They're going to have this awesome basketball arena and on and on and on it goes.
So to me, it's less of a destination and more like, ah, maybe you should just actually live there.
If you live there, you're not going to gamble as much, which is why they're giving sales.
That's because you turn into a Martian because it's 115 degrees there.
That's why I go in November, though.
The weather is unbelievable in November.
It's also just beautiful to be there.
What's your maximum amount of time you can spend in Vegas in any one trip?
When we went for CinemaCon, it was three and a half days.
And I was like, this is a long trip.
I got to get out of here.
30 hours.
Like 36 hours.
I did, I think, six days once.
My first year for Page Two.
Right as my column was taking off, I convinced them to send me for the Rockman Lewis sequel fight.
And it was 2001.
I went early.
I covered the fight.
I'd always wanted to cover a fight like a real writer.
And did the whole thing.
Went to the fight.
But that weekend, my boys came.
And we had a Vegas weekend.
Did you charge Skipper for that?
It was the first time I was like, oh, I can use this Disney money.
I can charge stuff.
John Walsh is like, Bill, I have some questions.
I'm seeing a Spearman Rhino charge here.
What is this movie?
My son had bronchitis.
The Pats played the Rams.
It was the year the 2001 Pats won the Super Bowl.
Played the Rams.
We lost, but we kind of hung.
And I watched in a sports book.
I'm just coughing up oysters.
And it was day five.
And I was like, I might like die.
Because I had done Vegas the way you would do it if you're there for two days for five straight.
Do you feel like if One thing I have noticed is it does feel healthier in the casinos now than it did Way less cigarette smoke?
Yeah.
Yeah, no question.
Sorry, CR.
No, it's all right.
All the guys who go for Summer League who are like I've been here for 13 days.
They all turn into Martin Sheen in Apocalypse Now.
They're all just like, day 10.
I can't believe I'm still in the fucking Aria.
You know, like... The horror.
The horror.
There is... I am really nostalgic for the old... Even like in that scene in Swingers.
It really... That really was what going to Vegas was like.
You went in.
It was super boring to get there.
You got there.
It was great.
It was kind of... you know, kind of, kind of low scale discounty.
Then there was like a couple aspirational casinos, like someday we'll gamble there.
I don't know if that still exists.
I think Sean drove me out there once.
And I think in my mind I still thought, because in Swingers it's like they leave and then yeah, there's like the like we're not there yet scene.
But it feels like it takes place in like an evening.
Yeah.
And we drove out there.
And the drive back was even worse because you drive into the sun driving back.
Yeah.
And we just listened to Rage Against the Machine.
And I was like, I'm never driving again.
I'm flying next time.
Yeah, I still like to drive.
It's a long, it's like a sneaky long drive, though yeah, not if you're Bill Simmons.
No, that's true wait, aren't you guys both?
329 was my, was my record.
What's your record?
It's in that zone.
It's in that realm.
You like to time it.
It's like I'm watching F1 right here.
You get really lucky when it goes from three lanes to two.
That's also if you go at night, that's better, obviously.
If you try to leave at 9 a.m. on a Sunday, it's hell.
No, you either have to leave from LA like 9, 9.30 a.m. or late.
8 p.m., right?
9 p.m.
Because if you're hitting the traffic from rush hour either way at any point, but Yeah well, we'll see.
I'm not giving it up, though.
How about this?
Vegas, come invite us and let us help you with some ideas.
Yeah.
We're available.
Yeah.
I'm willing to take Adele's spot.
I think if I was like, if they hired us to be like, all right, give us your pitch.
What are we doing wrong?
What are we missing?
You're not giving stuff for the people in their 20s and 30s who don't have a shitload of money, who want to go for the weekend and don't want to get bankrupted because they can't afford to go to Reyes.
I bet that there is a wellness bar and hot yoga and stuff like that, but people are like I don't come to Vegas to get well.
You would help design the AI-assisted virtual porn chambers, though.
Yeah, exactly.
The sportsbooks are not going to be the same.
What can you do?
I mean, that's over.
That's a loss.
That's over.
It'll just never be there.
The Ringer 107 has replaced that, unfortunately.
Well, unfortunately for the picks we've had, too.
Sean, Chris, great to see you guys.
Thanks, Bill.
All right, that's it for the podcast.
Thanks to Zach Lowe.
Thanks to Sean and Chris as well.
Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo.
I'm going to be back on Thursday with one more podcast.
We'll do a lot of football and I've got to dig myself out of a pretty brutal start to the gambling season.
I'm not worried.
I've been, we've been, we've had our backs a while before.
We'll be fine, but I will see you on Thursday.
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