Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson promised he'll get President Trump's tax and spending bill passed before tomorrow.
The final vote in the House is this morning.
Can the Speaker fulfill his promise to Trump?
I'm Ami Martinez, that's Leila Fadl, and this is Up First from NPR News.
Financial watchdogs say the bill could add up to $5 trillion to the national debt.
The U .S. already has near record levels of debt and ballooning interest payments.
Every fiscal warning sign is blinking red right now.
Does the bill have any economic payoff?
And the trial of hip -hop mogul Sean Combs is over.
He was found guilty on two of five counts, and the judge denied him bail.
We'll tell you why.
Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.
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After a nearly daylong stalemate that stretched into the early morning hours, House Republicans cleared a key hurdle for President Trump's massive tax and spending package.
A group of GOP holdouts stalled a procedural vote for a while, but ultimately enough gave in to move the bill forward. Now Republicans are racing to approve the plan in time to get the bill to President Trump's desk by tomorrow's self -imposed July 4th deadline.
line. NPR congressional correspondent Claudia Grisalis has been following all this and joins us now.
Hi, Claudia. Hi, Leila.
So the Republican -led House wanted to get this done yesterday, but there were holdouts and discussions with them stretched through the night.
How did the Republicans get this done?
Right. We've seen this movie a few times.
Yeah. And so what we've seen and saw again last night is fiscal hawks and moderates opposed to the bill's Senate changes after it passed there earlier in the week.
Moderates, for example, have been concerned about steeper cuts to Medicaid, which provides health care for low income, elderly and disabled Americans, while fiscal hawks said the cuts didn't go deep enough.
So this vote series was kept open since yesterday morning as these talks with holdouts and House Republican leaders continued.
And we even saw some of this play out on the House floor right after a member of the Fiscally Conservative House Freedom Caucus.
This is Congressman Andrew Clyde of Georgia voted no, we saw him immediately surrounded by leadership, followed by an extended one -on -one with House Speaker Mike Johnson.
But the paralysis finally broke this morning after Clyde and several other no's flipped to yes.
And remember, these are tightly held chambers, and Johnson can only afford to lose three votes.
Did the holdouts get what they wanted?
Well, we're still learning the specifics of what Republican leaders agreed to do in order order to sway them to yes.
But what we do know is that for hours, more than half a dozen holdouts withheld their votes.
And at least four, at times five, members, too many for Johnson's type margins in the House, were no's.
So some of these holdouts wanted material changes to the bill, but Republican leaders argued it's too late in the process.
So it's possible promises on future bills were made, but we'll have to wait and see.
And they were also facing immense pressure from President Trump, who late into the night was posting on social media and telling them to get on board. Now, Claudia, I know you've been reporting on this on the air with us for a long time now, but just remind us what's in this bill and what made it so contentious.
Right, right. At the heart of the legislation is an extension of President Trump's 2017 tax cut program.
It also ends taxes on tips and overtime, at least temporarily, which was a Trump campaign promise.
The bill also includes new spending on defense and immigration enforcement, And it lifts the nation's debt ceiling by $5 trillion.
And that's key because the debt ceiling will be hit this summer.
Now, to pay for all that, the bill cuts spending across a range of programs, most notably Medicaid.
This is the joint federal and state program for roughly 70 million Americans.
Now around 11 million could lose their coverage, making this a very contentious fight.
The Democrats, as we know, oppose the passage of this bill.
And they've been very vocal about that.
But is there anything they can do?
Right. The most they can really do is just stall the process.
And that's what they're doing right now.
House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries is extending his speech for as long as possible to hold up this final vote.
But for Republicans to get past that procedural vote was a huge hurdle.
it could signal that the finish line is in sight.
And it could take a few more hours.
But assuming they have the votes, Republicans could make good on their promises to deliver this to Trump's desk by July 4.
But we should note the fight is not over.
Democrats will make this bill the centerpiece of their campaign to win back Congress in the next year.
That is NPR's Claudia Grisales.
Thank you, Claudia.
Thank you. As GOP leaders try to build support for the big tax cut and spending bill, they're running into some buzzkill from fiscal watchdogs.
Various forecasters say the measure would likely add trillions of dollars to the federal debt over the next decade, while doing very little to boost the economy.
NPR's Scott Horsley is here.
So, Scott, the government is already in a pretty deep hole when it comes to debt.
I mean, how much more digging would this do?
At least several trillion dollars worth.
The precise figure varies depending on whose forecast you look at and what they include.
But But all the independent scorekeepers say this bill would add between $3 and $5 trillion worth of additional red ink over the next decade.
Maya McGinnis, who heads the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, says that's not the direction the U .S. ought to be moving in right now.
Every fiscal warning sign is blinking red right now, near record levels of debt, $22 trillion in additional borrowing over the coming decades, record interest payments that are growing faster than other parts of the budget.
And this makes that worse every single way.
The bill extends most of the tax cuts from the first Trump administration and adds some new tax breaks on top of that.
The biggest tax cuts go to the wealthiest taxpayers, while families making less than about $55 ,000 a year would on average end up worse off under this bill.
That's because the tax savings those families would receive would be outweighed by cuts to safety net programs like Medicaid and food stamps.
Any economic payoff at all from all the tax cuts?
To hear the White House tell it, this bill is going to supercharge economic growth.
But most outside experts are very skeptical of those White House numbers.
When forecasters at the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office looked at the House version of the bill, they found only modest economic gains, and those were dwarfed by the higher borrowing costs.
So McGinnis says the overall effect on the government's finances are likely to be negative.
For months now, people who support the bill have been saying, don't worry, this is going going to cause massive growth.
We're going to grow our way out of the whole problem.
And what you see when you look at a dynamics score is, no, that's not the case at all.
When the government has to borrow all this extra money, that not only raises the interest cost for taxpayers, it also drives up interest rates for private borrowers like you and me.
It makes it more expensive for families who try to buy a house or businesses that want to build a plant or buy new equipment.
So that could be a further drag on economic growth.
both. So what did the president or congressional leaders have to do to get this bill across the finish line at this point?
Yeah, both the president and GOP leaders in the House are using all their powers of persuasion or if not persuasion, just raw political muscle.
Some lawmakers don't like all this extra debt.
Others are worried about the fallout from the spending cuts.
But even before the votes were tallied, McGinnis acknowledged none of that makes a lot of difference in the current political environment.
The remarkable thing is there are so many members of Congress who are concerned about this bill, and frankly know it is the wrong bill for the moment that we are in.
The question is whether they will be able to stand up to the immense political pressure that's on them from the White House, from the leadership, to pass a bill that they know is fiscally damaging.
And the answer appears to be that pressure is working.
Of course, all these House lawmakers are going to have to face the voters next year.
President Trump will not.
Yeah, the midterms are right around the corner.
NPR's Scott Horsley.
Thanks a lot, Scott.
Scott, good to be with you.
Hip -hop mogul Sean Combs received a mixed verdict in his federal criminal trial in Manhattan yesterday.
He was found not guilty of two of the most serious charges, racketeering and sex trafficking, but found guilty of two counts of a lesser prostitution -related charge.
Joining us now is NPR culture correspondent Anastasia Sioulkas.
She was at the court yesterday for the verdict, and a warning this conversation includes mention of physical and sexual violence.
Good morning. Good morning, Layla.
So, walk us briefly through the verdict.
Sure thing. In short, Sean Combs was charged with sex trafficking, racketeering, and transportation to engage in prostitution.
prostitution. And all of those accusations were related to two ex -girlfriends of Combs, a singer named Cassandra Cassie Ventura and a woman who testified under the pseudonym Jane.
And both Jane and Ventura claimed they had been sexually trafficked to various locations across the country to participate in drug and sex marathons orchestrated by Combs with male sex workers.
And Combs referred to these events as freak -offs or hotel nights.
The women alleged that he had forced them to participate, and the defense argued those were all consensual encounters.
So the jury found him not guilty of sex trafficking.
The government has also alleged that Combs used his vast business empire, which spans music, fashion, alcohol, media, and that he used some of his employees to aid and hide a number of other crimes, including bribery, obstruction of justice, and witness tampering.
That's the racketeering charge, and he was also acquitted of that charge.
Okay, but the jury did find him guilty of one set of charges, right?
That's right, transportation to engage in prostitution.
Some folks may have heard of that crime referred to as the Mann Act, and that's essentially bringing people across state lines for prostitution.
So this jury, which was racially diverse and comprised of eight men and four women, found him guilty of two counts of that.
But those are far less serious charges than the others.
If Combs had been found guilty of racketeering and sex trafficking, he would have been facing as much as life in prison.
Each of the prostitution -related decisions instead carries a maximum sentence of 10 years apiece.
Now, Anastasia, you were at the court yesterday.
What was that like?
Well, Layla, this whole trial has been a circus.
I've been in court for many of the days.
There have been all the regular media figures that you'd expect, but both the main courtroom and various overflow rooms have been packed with fans, tourists, sometimes families with small kids, TikTokers, YouTubers, all kinds of folks.
And yesterday was no different.
When the verdict was announced yesterday, you could hear gasps and cheers.
Combs' family was crying.
Some of his defense lawyers were crying.
and after the verdict was read Combs was down on the floor behind the defense table kneeling in gratitude.
So after yesterday's verdict where do things stand now?
Yesterday afternoon the judge in this trial Arun Subramanian denied Combs bail per AP.
The judge pointed out to Combs' defense team they had admitted in court that he has a long history of violence so he decided Combs will will remain in custody until his sentence hearing.
That's NPR's Anastasia Siouxcas.
Thank you so much. You bet.
And that's Up First for Thursday, July 3rd. I'm Laila Faldin.
And I'm A. Martinez.
You can listen to this podcast sponsor -free while financially supporting public media with Up First Plus.
Learn more at plus .npr .org.
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Today's episode of Up First was edited it by Jason Breslow, Kelsey Snell, Kevin Drew, Raphael Nam, Jacob Gantz, Jenea Williams, and Alice Wolfley.
It was produced by Ziad Butch, Nia Dumas, and Christopher Thomas.
We get engineering support from Stacey Abbott, and our technical director is Zach Coleman.
Join us again tomorrow.
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