Discussion keeps the world turning.
This is round table.
China has planted nearly 200 billion trees since the 1970s the largest green campaign in history, as a matter of fact but scientists are now discovering these massive new forests are dramatically altering the country's water supply.
In response, China is now pioneering a nationwide water smart forestry system.
It's a story of how a global climate solution is being re-engineered for a drier, hotter world.
We're live from Beijing.
This is Roundtable.
I'm Steve.
Thank you so much for being with us today.
And for the show, I'm with Fei-Fei and Yushan.
First up.
For decades, when we talk about climate action, trees are the universal answer.
More trees mean more carbon absorbed, healthier air and greener landscapes.
Nobody has taken this mission more seriously than China.
Since the 1970s, the nation has embarked on the largest ecological engineering project in history, planting an estimated and mind-blowing 186 billion trees.
That is a staggering act. of planetary preservation.
However, recent scientific analysis reveals a shocking hidden cost to this green success story.
The sheer volume of new forests has fundamentally altered the distribution of water across the country, particularly in the northern arid regions.
It is possible or is it not to solve one environmental crisis without triggering another?
It's a valid question.
We'll break down the unprecedented scale of China's green initiatives and also explore the findings about its impact on the country's water supply.
This is a really, really interesting story.
One problem, one major problem being solved has somehow created crisis another.
But let's start with a bit of geography.
Yushan and feifei, good afternoon to you both.
Um yeah, a bit of geography from here in china.
Which areas are we talking about, and what type of land do they have there, and why did this require such a drastic action?
Well, that's many questions.
I bundled them, didn't i?
Yeah, to start with, this happens mainly in the northern part of china, where this whole project you mentioned took place, and it It can span over.
Well actually, it did.
It does span over decades.
But to understand this challenge.
Half a century almost.
Yeah, exactly.
In order to understand this better, we kind of have to just look specifically at Northern China and let's just see what's going on there.
So the primary region of focus is there, and it's particularly in the lowest plateau.
So this massive plateau, it covers over 640,000 square kilometers, and it's where China's most intensive conservation efforts have been concentrated due to historic environmental degradation.
It is particularly characterized by highly vulnerable losses of soil in an arid and semi-arid climate, meaning that it's very, very dry.
And that's what we call Loess is actually referring to the fine wind-blown silt.
Yeah, it's the top layer of sand, right, that's easily blown around.
Well, not necessarily sand.
It's also soil.
It's just very loose and easily flying away and can look like sand in some cases.
And this soil is incredibly loose, silty and prone to severe wind and water erosion when not anchored by vegetation, making this whole area by nature easily affected by and suffer from desertification.
Yes, and also, you know, when we were talking about the lowest plateau, i think one of the most.
Another landmark um thing is the yellow river passes through this plateau and it, the plateau, has a history of over 1 000, over 1 000 years of farming methods, very extensive farming methods in this area.
So you can see why the land is so so so, degraded to the level that the sort of the dust.
So it was years and years and years of deforestation by the farmers and that left that soil completely exposed.
And that's why we saw the need for trees to come again, because that silt easily blown, as you said, and I guess we'll get into it in a little bit why that's such a problem for nearby cities.
Well, the first thing is a few years ago, more than 10 years ago, I think.
One of the most famous feature of northern China is the sandstorms.
It happens more than a dozen times a year, especially during the spring.
And the massive sand basically engulfs cities and villages.
For example, in the cities of Beijing and Tianjin, you can feel and see those sandstorms.
And so where I'm from in Mongolia is.
During that time we were called the birthplace of sandstorms, simply because of the deserts and a lot of degraded land that we have.
And it was said that it is in Mongolia and because of this degraded land caused the sandstorms.
So I've only been in Beijing for a year, but I haven't seen a sandstorm.
I'm guessing that they don't come anymore.
Well, from time to time still.
I mean, sandstorm is still a part of the nature.
It's just not a dozen times a year.
Let me describe it this way.
So back in 2012, when I first got into junior high, I used to cycle like take bicycle and go to my school on a daily basis.
And every time when it's springtime April, early May or late March, around that time of the year, we know that this is going to come.
There will be mornings when I wake up at 6, 7 am am in the morning and then see the whole sky in color yellow and we know that that's when the sandstorm is coming and we we are kind of warned by the school that we need to wear a mask to come to school because of, you know, the potential of inhaling in a lot of sand.
When you would go outside at that time, how was visibility?
I mean, could you see in front of your face?
How bad was it?
I'm just trying to get an idea.
It's not as so intense as a fog.
You can still see the road, see the traffic light and everything.
Perhaps not from like hundreds of meters away like a clear day, but it's still visible on the road at least.
And the only thing is you will have throat issues very easily after one to two days.
Keep on inhaling it.
And that's why schools, and you know, just in public in general, there are announcements recommending for citizens to wear masks.
And it's kind of expected on an annual base.
So therefore, it was a big public health issue.
Back then, yes, indeed.
And that's why, I mean, going back to the 1970s, this drastic intervention took place.
That's when it began, right?
The planting of the billions of trees to act as kind of a protective green barrier.
Yes, we're talking about northern China, not only about the Loess Plateau, but also in basically 13, I think, provinces and regions in China, including in Mongolia, including Xinjiang, and also Shanxi and Gansu, where the plateau is located.
And the project actually started precisely in 1978.
And they started to plant these trees and it was carried out supposed to carry it out in like eight phases till 2050.
So we're still in the middle of this massive tree planting program where I think we're now in the sixth phase.
It will end in 2030.
And so, over the past close to 50 years, the project has restored about 47 of China's land area and restored about 90 of the previously desertified land.
And that's the area I think is basically what Japan and South Korea combined.
So it's a massive, massive project.
186 billion troops.
That's kind of hard to even imagine what that looks like.
But if you do find videos of what they call it, they call it the Great Green Wall, right?
Yeah, the Great Green Wall.
It's 2,800 miles in total.
That's about 4,000 some kilometers, if not more.
And it's just...
It's exactly what it says it is.
It is a great green wall, 186 billion trees.
And it's called afforestation, right?
That's the opposite of deforestation.
And this is going to end in 2030.
So the plan back in the 70s up until...
2030 was to cover, I guess, as much as they could to solve the problem of desertification.
And the farmers.
There was also a program directed at the farmers too Grain for Green, or something like that.
Yes, I think in Chinese it's called 退耕还龄, basically to quit farming and restore forests.
And the program called Sanbei actually the official name of it Three North Shelter Belt Program, because it's basically targeting North China, Northwest China and Northeast China.
So the Three Norths.
And, as part of you know, in this area is also a lot of people living in poverty in the past as well.
So what the government is trying to do, what the program has achieved, is also helping farmers in these areas to look for other livelihoods, not just by only farming.
For example, on the Lois Plateau for hundreds of years, I think their main livelihood is either herding or farming.
And that can put a great burden on the land area, especially considering population growth and so on and so forth.
So now I think, as part of the program, for example, they are encouraging farmers to, for example, planting trees, make a living with those trees.
For example, you can plant fruit trees, or chinese herbs, which you can sort of um, kill two birds with one stone.
Yeah right, good for the environment.
Yeah, good for the environment and good for your livelihood.
Yes, exactly so.
That's why um, i think the grain for green program is also part of this massive great green wall um program as well.
So with the planting of that many trees, there were some quite quantifiable positive outcomes that came from the previous decades.
What were some of those?
One major outcome or environmental victories that we've received has to be China's forest coverage that has nearly doubled since back in 1970s.
That's rising from just 12% in 1978 to about 23% today.
So it's a dramatic shift and a major mark of how far the country has been through in reversing decades of deforestation.
And from a personal city dweller view.
A point of view is that there are less and less sandstorms coming in springtime.
If there is one, we'll say, oh, it's coming again.
But old friend, long time no see.
Yeah, it used to be the norm.
Something like that.
Yeah.
And also, I think, as I mentioned, a lot of famous Well, I think landmark agricultural products also emerged from this program.
For example, the apples, Akosu apples from Xinjiang is also a part one of the results coming from this massive afforestation program as well.
Oh, so those have become kind of famous nationwide then?
Yes, the Aksu apples are very, very sweet.
Yeah, so the planting of all these trees would include the improved air quality.
The local climates would have improved as well.
The farmers are doing things differently than they would have done in the past, yet still doing some pretty good things.
So those are obviously some of the benefits.
But there has been some recent scientific research that has identified a problem.
What is that problem?
So, while these successes are very important, particularly in controlling soil erosion, A team of scientists recently began to look into the long-term ecological sustainability of these massive tree planting efforts, specifically its impact of the new forests on China's regional water cycle.
So they identified an unexpected water management challenge.
The sheer scale and initial methodology of the planting, particularly the species selection and density on the arid Lois Plateau, led to a significant shift in how water is distributed across the country.
So what they found is that many of the trees planted were high water use species like poplar and pines.
So these trees, while fast growing, they're not native to the arid and semi-arid regions where they were planted.
And they actually require far more water than the local rainfall or local vegetation.
And they could sustainably provide.
So what they do is that they suck in more water from the soil.
And in the meantime, kind of change how water goes underground and above the ground as well.
Yes.
Another central conflict, I think, is that they found a redistribution of different waters in the system.
For example, they have this blue water, which is basically water stored in rivers, lakes and groundwater, and you know the water that we can easily access and use.
And there are also green water, which is water held in the soil and then released into the atmosphere by plants through a process called evapotranspiration.
So the green water is less apparent in our human eyes.
So that means that the new forests were drawing a lot more moisture out of the ground and also releasing it back into the atmosphere.
Obviously,
And when that happens, it reduces the water that's available for us and for farmers too.
And specifically, the study found that evapotranspiration increased by 32% across the plateau.
That is a significant increase.
So when you have that increase in that type of evapotranspiration created by that water deficit, then you have a problem with the connected rivers.
So how does that exactly work?
Well, the increase in the evapotranspiration is causing, I think, parts of the northern China more dry, drier than before, and also is making regions, for example, on the Tibet and Qinghai, Xizang and Qinghai Plateau, that is becoming humid, more humid.
We've actually seen that on the plateau of Xizang and Qinghai there are more lakes, more rainfalls, so ending into more greens, which is, I think, local residents really welcome.
But that also means that what we used to study, what we used to know about local climate here in China is changing.
So that posed questions into what should we do in the future after?
What's the next, for example, step when we're trying to plant trees?
Specifically, what kind of trees should we plant and where should we plant?
So the lakes and the rivers nearby... they weren't getting the water supply that they were used to either because of that same because of the same reason that the trees were just i mean we're talking 186 billion trees here that are thirsty and they're taking the water out of the ground soil that would have gone to the lakes and the rivers nearby yeah a really interesting problem um that obviously needs to be solved and also another interesting kind of side note to this is that the water that evaporated from that region was heading to southern parts of the country.
Yeah, where the Qinghai and Shizan Plateau is located precisely.
So therefore, those regions would be getting more rainfalls than they had previously, which might come with its benefits or its advantages and disadvantages too.
All right.
So they've identified the problem.
And now perhaps the bigger question is, how do you fix that kind of problem?
One thing that the scientists mentioned is to implement a scientifically informed afforestation strategy.
So future efforts, they consider, must move beyond mass planting campaigns, as we do now.
And, In the meantime, adopt a strategy that respects the regional ecological balance, and this means prioritizing the creation of diverse resilient ecosystems over single-species, high-density ecosystems, one kind of tree or monocultures and a few particular type of trees.
So this also calls the concept of integrated protection and systematic governance of mountains, of rivers, of forests farmland lakes, just various different kinds of landscapes in one holistic system.
So for Chinese scientists, this represents a learning curve of both recognizing that each of these ecosystem plays an indispensable role in building sustainable and healthy environment, but also that this reflects a shift in mindset from focusing just on planting trees, and planting as many as possible, to trying to eliminate desert altogether, to embrace this more holistic framework of just how sustainably that we're planting our trees.
So therefore, it's not about just planting more and more and more trees.
Not anymore.
It's about planting the right types of trees.
In the right place.
In the right places, yeah.
It's a unique problem because it's not like you can go and cut down 186 billion trees and then replant 186 billion more to try to fix the problem.
You have to deal...
You have to deal with it kind of as you go.
So the types of species that they'll plant.
I'm guessing instead of I think you said it was poplars and pines before they'll focus more on trees that are native to the region.
Exactly.
Especially poplar.
I think in the past during the tree planting program.
Poplar is a very popular choice among different regions.
And it's also known as, I think it's called water pump by a lot of scientists.
Basically, it needs a lot of water.
The trees are called water pumps?
Yeah.
So that is not suitable for arid areas, for example, like Xinjiang, which basically they don't have a lot of water in the beginning.
And any water that falls from the sky will be sucked.
Those trees are going to be greedy.
Yes.
So it sucked up all the water and making farming also very difficult as well.
And also I think a lot of Chinese scientists are now looking at natural forests, what the local species are.
And on the other side, I think, another Chinese scientist called Lu Qi.
He's also emphasizing.
You know that deserts and sandstorms also have their role in our nature systems.
For example, when we are thinking about by planting these amount of trees, we're thinking about eliminating sandstorms.
But sandstorms have always been on the earth. for centuries.
But what benefit do they bring, though?
For example, he said the rolls of sandstorms, it can cool down some parts of the Earth's surfaces.
It can also help transition or mobilize some of the waters and help forming, for example clouds, which is very important for the rainfalls in different regions.
And also, he said, there is an idea called Sahara dust nourishes the Amazon rainforest.
It makes sense scientifically, basically because the sandstorms can transform a lot of fertilizing elements, for example, like iron, can be carried by the dusts by huge amounts and then also consuming a lot of the greenhouse gas emissions and acting as a catalyst and accelerator of ocean carbon sequestration.
Meaning, while we are trying to cut back on our carbon emissions, these natural phenomena like sandstorms are also contributing in the efforts as well.
Wow, there's your butterfly effect. geographically speaking.
So, when we are thinking about, you know we should, you know, eliminate deserts and sandstorms.
Maybe, if we really achieved that, it doesn't mean we have a healthier environment.
We still need those deserts and sandstorms.
I've never thought about that before, i've only considered.
I mean, when i learned about this story, all of this information was new to me and i just found it so fascinating because yes, it is just the planet, right?
I mean here in beijing and in neighboring tianjin.
The problem of these sandstorms back in 15 years ago or so was to the point where there would be a warning to the public.
So seemingly, on the surface, that just seems like a problem that needs a solution, and then we can move on.
But when we try to solve a problem of the planet, then we thereby create a problem that was perhaps unforeseen.
And also when we create a solution to a natural part of the planet, like planting more trees, we create a problem that was somehow unforeseen.
I've never, until this moment right now, seen a connection between nature and economics.
But economics kind of functions the same you fix one problem, you create another, you fix that and then you create another.
I've never thought of nature that way.
Yeah exactly, and i think another very interesting example is by another chinese scientist.
He actually um explained in one of his speeches about how, you know, wildfires and snow melts are helping grow a lot of the natural forests as well.
So when we are, for example, living in a warming climate, when snows are no longer, for example, the spring is getting warmer, there is less snow melt.
Some trees won't grow because they need that temperature change for them to create their seeds.
And without that drastic change they cannot.
You know, their seeds cannot grow, meaning new forests cannot be grown.
Even the natural forest cannot be sustained because we lack of these changes in the environment.
Here's where it got me really curious, like how do fire help?
We always fear mountain fires, burning trees and forests down, but how do fire fire actually contribute to that?
It's also part of, I guess in an olive forest, especially large amount of forest, it happens that the fire will happen in certain periods of time of the year.
And when the fire, for example, burn down these parts of trees, It also helps changing, for example, the funguses in the soil or the temperatures in the environment.
And when these changes, these plants have grown to adapt to these changes.
So they need this kind of cue to tell them you know, this is the time you can, you know, throw your seeds into the soil and the seeds can grow.
And when we don't have fire, when we don't have snow melts, the seas can't receive those kind of cues and they won't grow.
But if you're going to do that, you have to do that in a very controlled fashion, otherwise that can get out of control very quickly.
Yeah, exactly.
That's actually a big problem I think a global problem at this stage, because even though scientists know that fires is essential in this forest environment, You can't control the fire.
You can't have the fire just burn the places you want them to burn.
And it's a big governance issue.
So that's why, in a lot of countries, even though they acknowledge the importance of fire, they can't put it into practices, because you can't risk burning down, for example, homes.
If it gets out of control.
Yes, yes.
So that's one of the, I think, learning curves of scientists and also governance in the process.
It's a really fascinating story because it's like walking a tightrope between nature and also what human beings and animals require from nature.
And if we mess with it a little bit, and by the...
By mess with it, what I mean is change it somehow.
Planting 186 billion trees, we do something really interesting.
We create a positive effect or positive effects that we expected.
But then we also see results that we didn't expect.
And people in the south are now experiencing more rainfall than they were before because of the afforestation project in the northern regions.
It's tricky, but the story of the billions of trees, it's a powerful lesson about, I guess, what we can call a paradox, an environmental paradox.
It demonstrates that good intentions and enormous scale can be good, but sometimes they're not good enough.
And ecological success is only achieved when science guides the effort.
But it's good that it's been identified and it's good that they're working on the solution now.
Yeah, exactly.
And I think similar realization also happening in other countries as well.
For example, in North America there are scientists studying wildfires, also arguing that currently in a lot of North American countries they plant too many trees.
Where you know, in areas where natural forests don't grow, then those open landscapes once acted as natural barriers of those wildfires.
Yeah, like an empty space.
Yes.
But now because humans basically plant trees all over them.
That means we are seeing record-level fires in the region.
It's one of the factors of the record-level fires.
And by thinking we're doing something great there with the density of the forest, it could be creating another problem.
Interesting story.
