Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
I'm Michael Zizis, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.
Today let's talk about how changes in US policy are shaping the markets in 2025 and why we're seeing a pickup in capital markets activity.
It's Wednesday, September 24th at 1030 a.m. in New York.
At the start of this year.
One thing investors agreed on was that, with President Trump back in office, US policy would shift in big ways.
But there was less agreement about what those changes would mean for the economy and markets.
Our team built a framework to help investors track changes in trade fiscal, immigration and regulatory policy, focusing on the sequencing and severity of these choices.
That lens remains useful, but now, 250 days into the administration, we think it's more valuable to look at the impacts of those shifts, the durable policy signals and how markets are pricing it all.
Let's start with policy uncertainty.
It's still high, but it's come down from the peaks we saw earlier this year.
For example, the White House has made deals with key trading partners, which means tariff escalation is on pause for now.
Of course, things could change if those partners don't meet their commitments, but any fallout may take a while to show up.
Even if courts challenge new tariffs, the administration has ways to bring them back.
And with Congress divided, most big policy moves are coming from the executive branch, not lawmakers.
With policy changes slowing down, it's worth reflecting on a new, durable consensus in Washington.
For years, both parties mostly agreed on lowering trade barriers and keeping the government out of private business.
But it seems that's changed.
Industrial policy, where the government takes a more active role in shaping industries, is now a key part of US strategy.
Tariffs that started under Trump stayed under Biden, and even current critics focus more on how tariffs are applied than whether they should exist at all.
You see this shift in areas like healthcare, energy, and especially technology.
Take semiconductors.
The CHIPS Act under Biden aimed to build a secure domestic supply chain, while Trump's approach includes licensing fees on exports to China and considering more government stakes in companies.
So why is capital markets activity picking up then?
There are several drivers.
First, less uncertainty about policy means companies feel more confident making big decisions.
Earlier this year, activity like IPOs and mergers was unusually low compared to the size of the economy, but corporate balance sheets are strong.
Companies have plenty of cash and private investors are looking to put money to work.
Add in new needs for investment driven by artificial intelligence and technology upgrades and you get a recipe for more deals.
Our corporate clients have told us that having a smaller range of possible policy outcomes helped them move forward with strategic plans.
Now we're seeing the results.
IPOs are up 68% year on year, and M&A is up 35%.
Those numbers are coming off low levels, so the pace may slow, but we expect growth to continue for a while.
This all syncs up with other trends in the market.
For example, we continue to see steeper yield curves and a weaker dollar.
Why?
Well, trade policy is likely to stay restrictive.
The fiscal policy trajectory appears locked in, as the President and Congress have already made the fiscal choices that they prefer and the Federal Reserve appears willing to tolerate more inflation risk in order to support growth.
That means the dollar could keep falling and longer maturity bond yields could be sticky, even as shorter maturity yields decline to reflect the more dovish Fed.
As always, it's important to watch how these trends interact with the broader economy, and that will be important how we start deliberating on our outlook for 2026.
We'll keep analyzing and share more with you as we go.
Thanks for listening.
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