The 2026 Oscars have something for everyone.
Vampires, car chases, show tunes, ping pong, Shakespeare, and we're ready to talk about all of it.
As always, some categories seem like locks, but there are also some real toss-ups and, as always, we'll be rooting for some upsets.
I'm Stephen Thompson.
And I'm Linda Holmes.
On this episode of NPR's Pop Culture Happy Hour, we're offering up a guide to this year's Oscars.
Joining us today are our fellow Pop Culture Happy Hour hosts, Glenn Weldon.
Hello, Glenn.
Hey, Linda.
It's that time of year when I start worrying about my friend Oscar Gold.
You know why?
Because everyone starts chasing him, chasing the poor guy.
First they give him all kinds of nods.
There's all kinds of Oscar nods.
And then they start chasing him.
It's weird.
Weird, I tell you.
We are off to a great start.
And also welcome to Aisha Harris.
Hello, my friend.
Linda, it's been 84 years of this award season.
We finally made it.
Well, I am so glad to be here with all of you for our big Oscars show.
As we always do, we've checked out all the nominees in the major categories and we've all got opinions about what will win and what should win.
So let's get directly to it.
We are going to start at the top with Best Picture.
Stephen, kick us off.
All right.
Well, first up, we've got two very different sports movies.
Marty Supreme.
Timothee Chalamet plays a working class heel, aiming to become a table tennis champion in the 1950s.
And I have tremendous respect for your money.
And I know it's hard to believe, but I'm telling you this game that fills stadiums overseas.
And it's only a matter of time before it fills stadiums in the United States too, before I'm staring at you from the cover of a Wheaties box.
And F1, Brad Pitt plays a veteran F1 driver who clashes with a young hotshot.
When was the last time you won a race?
Sunday, Daytona.
Oh, I'm sorry.
I meant Formula One.
Oh, I'm sorry.
Then same as you.
All right.
Next up, we've got two films from directors who have earned their fair share of Oscar nominations.
We've got Begonia Yorgos Lanthimos' movie, where Emma Stone's high-powered CEO is kidnapped by conspiracy theorists and accused of being an alien.
Where's my hair?
Your hair has been destroyed.
You shaved off my hair?
Yes, we've shaved off your hair.
Why have you shaved off my hair?
To prevent you from contacting your ship.
And then we've got Frankenstein, Guillermo del Toro's take on the Mary Shelley classic.
Jacob Elordi plays the creature, and Oscar Isaac is the scientist.
You knew I had created something truly horrible?
Not something.
Someone.
And for the past several years we've seen international features nominated in the Best Picture category.
This year, we've got The Secret Agent from Brazil.
A former researcher is caught up in the political turmoil of the military dictatorship in 1977.
I'm not a violent person, but I would kill this guy with a hammer.
And sentimental value from Norway.
Stellan Skarsgård is a filmmaker attempting to reconnect with his strange daughters, and it proves that, at the very least, the tension between art and parenthood is complicated.
Well, he's a very difficult person, but he's a really good director, and he sees something in you.
We've also got two movies about grief.
There's Hamnet.
A young English couple meets, falls in love, has children, and suffers an unspeakable tragedy.
One of them happens to be William Shakespeare, who goes on to write Hamlet.
I see you grown and very strong.
And I see you in London working with your father.
In the theatre?
And then Train Dreams, which follows the life of a logger and railroad worker in a rapidly changing America of the early 20th century.
These trees are really that old.
Some's older even.
This world is intricately stitched together, boys.
Every thread we pull, we know not how it affects the design of things.
And then we've got the two presumed frontrunners in the category.
Sinners.
Ryan Coogler's movie finds Michael B. Jordan playing twin brothers who open a 1930s juke joint.
And opening night does not go as planned when a bloodthirsty menace appears outside.
It's vampires.
We're talking about vampires.
It was never going to be free.
We've been running around everywhere looking for freedom.
You know, Dan Will, he was never going to find it.
Until this.
This is the way.
And one battle after another.
Paul Thomas Anderson's action thriller stars Leonardo DiCaprio as a washed up ex-revolutionary whose past comes back to haunt him.
Steve Locke just attacked my home.
I lost my daughter.
This is Bob Ferguson.
You understand?
I don't remember any more of this.
I don't remember any more of this code speak.
All right.
Let's just get on.
All right.
A real upbeat bunch of movies.
A real laugh riot up one side and down the other.
Glenn, I'm going to go to you first.
What do you think will win the Best Picture race?
How do you see this race kind of shaping up?
Well, let's do a little big picture on the best picture.
I mean not too many years ago, this field would have looked a lot different, because the kind of films that used to get nominated for best picture looked a lot different.
They conformed to these very received notions of what is important and what is serious, which tended to overrepresent reality, historical dramas and biopics.
This year is a genre fest.
Sports movies sci-fi horror action thriller, political thriller and a couple of historical dramas in there, because that's also a genre.
You can call that change.
I call that progress.
And I was going to say, oh, but we're still missing comedy, but we're not.
I mean, Begonia is a very funny film until it isn't anymore.
And One Battle is a satire.
So progress.
Oh, that's fair.
I think I feel more traditional, best picture-ness from some of these than you do, but I absolutely understand what you're saying.
And given all of these entries, what movie do you think is going to win?
Well, this goes to your point.
I think One Battle is going to win because it is the traditional pick of the two frontrunners.
It's filled with actors the Academy loves.
It's been the frontrunner for a long time for a reason because you have to remember that the way best picture votes work is by ranked choice voting.
A film needs to get over 50 percent of voters to win.
And if that criteria is not met, they eliminate the lowest ranked film and redistribute those votes to the next choices until they hit that 50 percent mark.
And that's how we get F1.
And that's how we get F1, people.
But in that environment, what you need is a film that everyone's seen, but also a film that everyone likes.
It's not enough for there to be like a small base of very vocal supporters.
You need everyone to kind of like your movie.
And I suspect...
That there are voters let's call them old school, very traditional academy voters who will not vibe with the horror elements of sinners.
They're going to be like, wait, I thought I was watching historical drama.
How did vampire peanut butter get in my historical drama chocolate?
And also there's a more meta reason here.
I think one battle, what it's satirizing at its heart is right wing extremism.
It's poking much gentler fun at left-wing idealism, extremism.
That is the kind of thing that a certain kind of Academy voter will vote for and feel very good about themselves for doing it.
I'm not equating One Battle with the crashes and the green books of the world, but I'm just saying there is a kind of Oscar voter, a traditional film snob who dismisses genre stuff, who will think that voting for One Battle is a political act.
I mean, if they think that, they should vote for Sinners, but they're going to vote for One Battle.
That's why I think it's going to take it.
Yes to everything Glenn said, but I think the shorter version that I would argue is it's time for Paul Thomas Anderson.
Do I think it's time?
No, but I do think a lot of Hollywood thinks it's time because he has yet to win a Best Picture.
He has yet to win. you know, best director.
But, like I do think that there is a sense and we should never underestimate the power of its time historically, the way that has worked across all the major categories for filmmakers.
I think of Spike Lee finally winning for a screenplay award.
Like these things happen.
And I think because Paul Thomas Anderson has so much goodwill And he's like a director's director.
He is the letterbox king, all these things.
And so I also just think Sinners, as Glenn said, it is political in a different way.
But there's a difference between the way Paul Thomas Anderson satirizes right wing extremism and the fact that Sinners ends, in part, with a black character gunning down the KKK.
And I think that that's like a step too far.
This is sort of one of those years where I have a movie that I wish would win and I have a movie that I suspect is going to win.
And some years, I've actually managed to kind of go with my heart and say that I think that the movie that I love, which in this case is Sinners, is going to win, will win.
But I think for all the reasons that you've talked about, that's probably not in the cards.
I think the most interesting win that kind of got people going huh, you know, for Sinners was that it won the Best Cast Award at the Actor Awards, formerly known as the SAG Awards.
Like, that's a big body of voters, right?
However, you know, Producers Guild, no.
Their big award went to One Battle After Another.
And the producers are also a big group.
And I think when Glenn was talking about the kind of more sort of old school heavy use of quotation marks, people who kind of you envision when you think about why the Oscars tend to be kind of a little bit stuck, it's more producers.
I'm erring on the side of optimism.
Aw, good for you, bud.
You fool.
At some point in this process, as I was going through these films, as I was watching or, in some cases, rewatching these films, I found myself breaking all ties in favor of Sinners.
I feel like Sinners has an extraordinary amount of momentum right now for a movie that came out very early in the year.
And I see a lot of parallels between its Oscar campaign and the Oscar campaign of the movie Everything Everywhere, All at Once, several years ago.
Both films came out in the first half of the year, which is unusual for Oscar movies.
Both films made an enormous amount of money when they weren't necessarily expected to.
Both of those films maintained awards buzz for the better part of a year.
Both of those films contain largely non-white casts.
Both of those films are outside of conventional Oscar historical drama slash, biopic content genres, as as glenn alluded to earlier.
The last one that i'm going to mention is that they both received a greater than expected number of nominations, which suggests a pretty extreme breadth of support within the academy.
I think there is more support for this film within the academy.
I think you all are a little too pessimistic.
I think the the oscars have made real headway In this regard, not only in terms of what films get nominated, but in terms of what films win.
And man, I just sat down with this film a few days ago and just reveled in how gorgeous it looks, how beautifully it's acted, how fun it is, how exciting it is.
The musical centerpiece of this film is one of my favorite scenes in a movie in years, and if i have any rooting interest, any strong rooting interest besides a general love of the movie sinners, it's for the cinematographer, autumn derald archipa, whose work in this film is jaw-dropping.
Yeah, Like I said, I'm breaking all ties in favor of sinners.
So I am saying it not only should win, I think it will win.
It's my pick for should because, I mean, I just watched it the other night.
I have gone back to it more than any other film that's nominated.
And the first shot of this film after the prelude is a shot of the sun with a lens flare.
So it looks like there's twin suns in the sky, which is just so smart.
And it just made me clap there on the couch.
So yeah, it's my pick too.
Look, I've talked about this movie a lot and I love it.
And while I don't think it's a perfect movie, I do think it is kind of perfect movie for our times.
And I wish I had your optimism, Stephen.
But also, we don't know, really.
We're saying all these things and we can predict it.
And sometimes the Oscars does surprise us.
So maybe it will turn out that it does win.
I just think it is such a stunning feat of artistry and clearly the work of someone who needed to get everything out there, because perhaps he thought maybe I might not ever be able to do something like this again, even though he is one of our most consistent filmmakers and he's done so many great blockbusters Ryan Coogler.
But he just throws it all out there, leaves it on the floor.
And I love this movie so much.
So that's what I think should win.
I do, too.
I think, as we've alluded to the breadth of achievements in this film, like it's hard for me to argue against a movie that I believe is nominated in every category which was eligible at all.
16.
And on the one hand, that's just counting up nominations and you don't want to get too wrapped up in that.
But the reason for that in this case is that the music is great.
The visual effects are great.
The costumes are amazing.
The cinematography is amazing.
The acting is amazing across a bunch of different roles.
And every one of those nominations, I think, is fully defensible and understandable on its own.
You don't just get the sense of like they just voted for everything centers the way that you sometimes might get that with other films.
Yeah.
So to me, you look at that and you say that's a very good argument for something being the best picture of the year, as is the fact that I simply think, Yeah.
I mean, how cool is that?
I don't know.
I love it.
I think it's great.
We're going to move on from best picture to actor in a leading role.
All right, Stephen, you're going to take this one as well.
All right, so our nominees are Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another.
DiCaprio plays a washed-up ex-revolutionary whose past catches up with him.
Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon.
Hawke plays songwriter Lorenz Hart on The Worst Night of His Life.
The opening of Oklahoma on Broadway.
Wagner Mora for The Secret Agent.
Mora plays a researcher who goes into hiding during Brazil's military dictatorship.
Timothy Chalamet for Marty Supreme.
He plays Marty Mouser, a scoundrel, a hustler, and an aspiring world champion in table tennis.
Well, I live with the confidence that if I believe in myself, the money will follow.
Ultimately, my struggle isn't even about money.
How do you pay rent?
I don't.
You're avoiding the question.
No, I'm not avoiding anything.
How do you plan on eating food today?
Honestly, I was going to order room service the second you leave.
And Michael B. Jordan for Sinners.
He plays twins Smoke and Stack, who face off against vampires when they open a juke joint.
I never saw no roots, no demons, no ghosts, no magic.
Just power.
And only money can give you that.
So once again, we are going to start with who do you think will win?
Aisha, who do you think will win actor in a leading role?
You know, I made this choice a little while before we taped this episode.
And the more I think about it, I'm going to keep it.
But I do think his juice has waned a little bit.
I know who you're going to say.
Look, I'm going to stick by it.
Our boy Timmy Chalamet, who I think is actually very well cast in...
His role as Marty Supreme, as we've seen from his very, very chaotic campaign throughout this entire award season.
I do think that he's probably rubbed some people a little bit the wrong way.
I'm going to put my money on Timmy for Marty Supreme.
Yeah, same.
I mean to say it's a showier performance than a guy who's playing twins is saying something, but it is.
It's a bigger performance.
It's more in your face.
It's the most acting.
And, you know, I talked to some people who find that performance charismatic.
I could not be casual friends with somebody who finds that performance charismatic, because I find him repellent.
But I believed him.
Also, to Aisha's point, he's campaigning hard.
And there is this notion that Oscar doesn't like tryhards.
And that is provably false.
And tryhards win all the time.
I think he's going to take it.
I would agree with what Aisha said, that I think his juice has waned a bit.
I think the persona that he took on in promoting this film has worn thin with people.
As we record this, this clip is going around of this town hall interview he did with Matthew McConaughey where he says he wants to keep movie theaters alive and he doesn't want to be working in something like ballet or opera the kind of thing that he says no one cares about this anymore.
Oh, my God.
Yeah.
People are taking that way too, like, whatever.
No, I don't think so.
I think that is a thing that it is rude to say.
And for an artist to say it about other people's art forms is the kind of thing.
I'm talking here in terms of Oscar campaigning.
Yeah, yeah.
I think that's the kind of thing that can make people feel like you're a pill.
Do I think that's going to tip it?
No, I don't.
I think people are exhausted by this performance, by this movie and by not only this Oscar campaign but last year's Timothee Chalamet Oscar campaign for A Complete Unknown.
First of all, I want to echo something Linda said, where I think this is such a strong field.
I think this is DiCaprio's best performance in ages.
I love Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon.
I love Wagner Mora in The Secret Agent.
But I think it is as much Michael B. Jordan's time as it is Timothee Chalamet's time.
The Michael B. Jordan performance is plenty showy.
He's playing twins and he's great at it and he gives them distinct personalities where you can tell them apart.
Mm-hmm.
I think the Chalamet Oscar campaign has been a little too try-hard.
I think people are less fond of Marty Supreme than they are of Sinners.
And I do think that's a factor.
I'm going with Michael B. Jordan for not only will win, but should win.
Sweet summer child.
Good for you, buddy.
Optimism!
Someone has to be optimistic here.
I want to give it to Michael B. Jordan.
And again, I really do like this category overall.
And it was hard for me to choose.
And I think...
If I'm being totally honest about it, I'm picking Michael B Jordan, in part because I worry that he might not ever have a chance like this again.
And look, the awards, in the grand scheme of things, they don't really make any sense.
So my choice is going to be one that doesn't necessarily come from logic.
There's no scientific way to game this out.
But I would love to see Michael B Jordan win, because I do think that this is his best performance ever.
And Ryan Coogler is quite literally the only film director who has known what to do with him as a performer.
And this is such a.
I rewatched Sinners again the other night.
My goodness, just the fact that he's really kind of playing not just twins, but then he has to play a twin who has turned into a vampire.
So there's lots of layers.
It's not quite three characters, but it's like two and a half.
And so the way those roles so seamlessly work off of each other and this is also just based off of, you know, 20 plus years of watching this guy grow up and grow into the man he is
So that's my pick for a should win.
Agreed, agreed.
And I agree with you.
I would pick him also.
I double, triple echo how good this field is.
I really have a soft spot for this Ethan Hawke performance in Blue Moon.
I didn't care for one battle, but I think that DiCaprio is good in it.
He's so funny.
He really is.
So there's no wrong way here in terms of should.
Even, you know, I don't want to make it sound like boo-hoo, I think Chalamet is going to win.
I think he's really good in it.
And I said that coming out of the movie.
But boy, Michael B. Jordan, everything Aisha said is so true.
I would love to see him win.
If I could only have one thing on the night, that might actually be my pick.
Maybe Best Picture, but that might actually be my pick.
I don't know.
Glenn, do you disagree with us or do you agree?
No, man.
I mean, I could sit here and make the case for Vagnamora, who holds the center of that film.
So good.
He really does.
In a film that could easily fly away into separate chunks.
But I mean.
What Jordan does is he finds distinct ways of exposing the vulnerability in two characters who are each, in different ways, performing the utter lack of vulnerability.
He creates two distinct characters.
You know which one you're looking at the moment the camera hits them.
Before you process any of the visual cues of costume or anything, you know who you're looking at, which becomes hugely important in the film when the poop hits the fan later on.
So, yeah, it's Jordan all the way for me.
It's a remarkable performance.
Really wonderful.
All right.
We're going to move on to actress in a leading role.
Aisha, who are the nominees in this category?
Yeah.
So we have Emma Stone for Begonia.
Stone plays a high-powered CEO who is kidnapped by conspiracy theorists who think she's an alien.
Wow.
What a movie that was.
Yeah.
Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue.
Hudson is playing a down-on-her-luck musician who teams up with Hugh Jackman to form a Neil Diamond tribute band.
Okay.
Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.
Byrne plays a therapist shouldering all the responsibility of caring for her ill daughter while her emotionally absent husband is away for work.
And Renata Reinsbe for Sentimental Value.
She plays a stage actress who reunites with her estranged father when he offers her the lead role in his next film.
And then I think we all are going to predict that this final actor, Jesse Buckley, will win for Hamnet.
She plays a witchy young free spirit named Agnes who falls in love with William Shakespeare.
So, Stephen, why do you think Jesse Buckley both will and, as I understand it, should win here?
Well, I think it is a perfect confluence of events in her career and in this particular Oscars campaign.
I think Jessie Buckley is one of those actors who is great in everything she does.
She's extremely committed in everything she does.
She's willing to take things over the top in much of what she does, but does it extremely well.
This is a best acting performance.
This is a most acting performance.
She's given an extraordinary amount to work with here.
You get deep emotion, deep pathos, but also kind of quiet feelings.
She does it all, I think, extraordinarily well.
She is the giant concrete beam holding up this film.
And I think this is also a cumulative award because she has been really good for a long time in basically everything she's done.
Now, I don't want to dismiss the rest of this field.
I think there are other extremely strong performances here.
As much as I never want to see.
If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You ever again in my life.
I think Rose Byrne is terrific in it.
I think Kate Hudson is way better in the Neil Diamond movie than I could have expected.
For one thing, she's just about the only person in that film who pulls off the accent, and I'm from Wisconsin.
And I always love Renata Reinsva and everything she does, and she's terrific in sentimental value.
And of course, Emma Stone, you never want to discount Emma Stone.
It's a strong field, but to me, Jessie Buckley runs away with this.
Because she's been putting in the work, she makes weird choices and she doesn't make Agnes' grief traditionally Oscar-baity.
She makes it something spiky and difficult and real.
And if this film works on you didn't for me, but if it works on you it's because of those last 10 minutes or so.
The movie needs us to go on the emotional arc that she goes on in those last 10 minutes.
That's a really, really heavy lift.
And for the people who it worked for, it worked really well.
So, yeah, I think that's all on her.
I just keep going back to seeing this in the theater, in a packed house and literally everyone around me except for myself bawling and sniffling.
And while this didn't work for me, she's quite good in it.
And I also think that that is where that power lies in getting people to vote for her.
If you have a heart, and apparently I don't, or mine is cold and frigid and frozen.
Sit by me.
There are mothers in this category as well.
Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You.
But that movie, I think, is so, so difficult to sit through that I wonder how many people actually were able to make it through.
And again, we don't know how many voters are actually watching all of these movies.
So I'm thinking it's going to be Jessie Buckley for those reasons.
Yeah, I think it's going to be Jessie Buckley, too.
I think she's very well-liked.
She's been in a lot of other things, women talking, for one.
Lost Daughter.
So good on Lost Daughter.
You know, I think sometimes, when people, including me, sort of talk about very Oscars-y performances, which this is right,
Yeah.
I think she will probably win.
She's been on a great run of precursor awards.
Now, as far as should win, my pick would be rose burn.
I think rose burn is doing such interesting work in if i had legs i'd kick you and really is the whole movie.
I mean, there are little bits of other people including, by the way, conan o'brien, who's quite good and strange in this film, doing something very different from what i'm used to from him, But for the most part she is the movie.
It tends to stay very close on her face through the entire movie.
It kind of forces you to look at this woman very closely.
You have to believe both that she loves her daughter and that she's incredibly frustrated and angry at her situation.
And that's a really hard balance.
Like, listen, we were talking about Jessie Buckley and all the good things she's done.
I also love Rose Byrne and a bunch of wonderful things that she has done.
So...
I would pick Rose Byrne.
Same.
I mean, I pick Rose Byrne.
I mean, like just in terms of heavy lifting, she's in every scene of that film.
She's often isolated in the frame.
As you say, it's often a tight shot of her face.
Just we watch her reacting for most of the film.
And that's an example of the script and the performance lining up to make you feel empathy, if not sympathy.
You're experiencing what's going on in your guts and it's raw.
It's visceral.
It's completely unforgettable, which is good because, as other people have mentioned, I'm never going to see the movie again, but I don't need to.
It's in there.
I'm going with Renata Reinsvet.
Look, this is a pretty stacked category.
There's some people in here.
I'm not sure why they're there, but like, I think like Reinsvet is very, very good here.
I really appreciate the fact that her character is both has to deal with her father, played by Stellan Skarsgård, coming back into her life, but also she's struggling as a performer.
And there's just some really great scenes of her having to act being an actor.
And I just find myself drawn to that sort of characterization and that sort of excavation of emotion and creative processes.
And so for me, I would love to see her win But also like if Jessie Buckley wins, she's really good.
Like everything you've said, she her body of work is so impressive.
And I am always looking forward to whatever she is in.
But give me Renata Reinsfeld.
I will be I will be happy.
Yeah.
Can I just say a quick word about the Kate Hudson of it all?
I mean, I just want to address something.
When the nominations came out, I'll just speak for me.
I was surprised by that nomination.
And in the episode we did about it, I was kind of glib about it.
I can't change that.
That's just my operating system.
But I was commenting from a position of ignorance, having not seen the movie in question.
And I really wish I hadn't done that if I've since seen it.
And it's a solid performance.
And she's easily the best thing about that movie.
Doesn't change my pick.
But I really wish I hadn't shut my mouth off without seeing the damn movie.
That's that's not the job.
I get it.
But I was in the same boat as you, Glenn.
And I agree.
I admit that as well.
I also think I'm sorry, but the material is not there.
And I can give points for being great and not great stuff.
But again, I do think there are other actors from last year that I would have preferred to see there instead.
But anyway.
Yes, I think a lot of good performances in this field.
Up.
Next we're going to talk about more Oscar nominees, including supporting actor, actress and directing.
Grab your cheat sheets and come right back.
All right.
Welcome back.
We're going to move on to actress in a supporting role.
Glenn, who is up in this category?
All right.
First up, we've got Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value.
Fanning plays an American actress who is cast as the star of a Norwegian filmmaker's passion project.
We've got Inge Ibsdottir Lilos for Sentimental Value.
Lilos plays the estranged daughter of that Norwegian filmmaker.
We've got Amy Madigan for weapons.
Madigan plays Aunt Gladys, who plays a certain role in the disappearance of 17 children.
We've got Wunmi Musaku for sinners.
Musaku plays a hoodoo conjurer and healer who has a deep relationship with Michael B Jordan's character Smoke.
But we have tabulated the results and it turns out that all four of us think it's going to be Tiana Taylor, for one battle after another.
She plays an ex-revolutionary named Perfidia Beverly Hills, who goes into hiding.
You didn't count on me.
You didn't count on my fight.
The message is clear.
Free borders, free bodies, free choices, and free from f***ing fear.
I have such complicated feelings about this character and performance.
Aisha, you have written very eloquently, I think, about this character within the context of one battle.
Why do you think she's going to win?
Well, I mean, there's the high vision part version of why and you can go into the character and how Hollywood sometimes likes to see black women and what kind of characters they like to nominate them for.
I've seen people try to compare this to Halle Berry getting nominated and winning Best Actress for Monster's Ball and the fact that she had to have sex with the Billy Bob Thornton's character in that movie.
Like there's so many things going on here.
And I think that you could point to that.
But I just think overall Tiana Taylor has, to a less grading extent than Timmy Chalamet has really been out there, like pounding the pavement, doing the campaigning thing, turning looks.
Oh my goodness.
She, I mean, she knows what she's doing and she's charming.
She's funny.
This is hers to lose at this point, but This is also, again, this is kind of a stacked category.
So it's hard.
Who knows how this will turn out?
But I do think Tiana has had that energy going for most of this award season.
And I don't think she's really relinquished it, but we'll see.
Well, this is a category where I really thought a lot about one of my own personal tiebreakers, which is can you imagine anyone else in this role?
By that metric.
I'm happy basically with either Tiana Taylor or Amy Madigan kind of both of whom passed that test where I really can't imagine anyone else left occupying that role, not only in terms of acting ability and what the performance and the character brings to the movie, but the kind of physical presence.
And Tiana Taylor.
You know she disappears for a really long stretch of this movie, but you never forget her face and you never forget her presence.
And so I think she is a really strong way to honor this film, if the Things go in the direction that I and none of you think will happen and Sinners takes most of the other major awards.
I think she is a way for the Academy to honor one battle after another.
I do think she's going to win, but I would not be shocked if there was a different winner.
Yeah, Tiana's not in the film much, but her absence hangs over everything, which is important.
The film doesn't work without it because, like, it motivates.
That absence motivates several of the characters.
And when she's in the film, she's incredible.
So, yeah.
Yeah, I agree.
Those are my thoughts, too.
I think she's very good when she's in it.
I think it's been one of the more well-received performances of, like I said, a really complicated character who's provoked a lot of spiky conversation.
But I also think that she will win.
Now, Glenn and Steven and I all think that Amy Madigan should win.
My personal feeling about that is that I First of all I think she's great in it and the performance is so strange.
And...
I really love the idea of a performance that I just would not have even been able to conceive of until I saw it winning an award.
I also love the idea of a straight up horror movie.
Even Sinners, although it is a horror movie.
Ryan Coogler and Michael B Jordan are both sort of like prestige.
Yeah.
It's very different.
They both come with a little more cachet.
That makes sinners a kind of like.
As much as I hate this expression, would never use it myself.
People who say elevated horror.
Weapons is straight up horror.
And I love the fact that it really embraces its horror-ness and its weirdness and its grossness.
I love that idea.
And I think she really, Gladys is just a...
Such an invention.
And for me, the last, like, few minutes of her performance are so funny and strange and the lack of vanity.
Throughout, yeah.
How often is the climatic action set piece of a movie something you will never forget watching?
It's pretty great.
There is no category fraud here.
That is a true supporting performance.
She doesn't really show up in any real way until about an hour and 15 minutes into this movie, at which point oh boy.
Mm-hmm.
Well, and if by supporting you mean could not exist without her.
Right.
And when she does show up we talked about this before the physicality of that role the makeup, the wigs is so potentially distracting that for the movie to work, you need the menace to establish it.
The menace needs to be not something you can just put in a box and say, well, that's otherworldly.
That's comical.
You need to feel the hatred.
You need to feel the need.
You need to feel it in your bones.
And she nails that part of it.
As I understand it Aisha, you have a different pick for who you think should win supporting actress.
Tell me who you picked.
Yeah, I'm all alone on this island.
I'm going with Elle Fanning for sentimental value.
Oh, interesting.
Interesting.
I keep coming back to, not that I didn't know that Elle Fanning was a very good actress before this, because I have seen her in other things and been really taken by just how, how she can make, like a quote, unquote small role or small performance, feel bigger and full and breathe life into it.
And I think that this character in Sentimental Value is a really tricky one to play because she is kind of the outsider within this world.
She's an American actress who is like cast in this film project.
And it becomes very clear that Stellan Skarsgård's character wants to sort of make a movie about his own life and use her as a stand-in for various people in his life.
And the way she's able to carry that, and this also goes to the writing as well.
But she could have been some snively annoying, irritable actress from America who doesn't respect the craft.
But that whole creative process again, she's just really trying to understand why she was even cast in this role And there's just a lot of layers to it that I really, really love.
Is it just me?
It just doesn't feel right.
It doesn't feel right for you either, does it?
Me doing this film?
Of course it does.
I don't think it does.
I don't think she's going to win.
And maybe this seems like a contrarian argument.
POV, but I just keep going back to that performance.
And I think everyone in this category is really, really good.
Yes.
Another one with no bad choices, I don't think.
You mentioned Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value.
I think that Inga Ibsdottir-Lumos performance is just gorgeous.
And Wunmi Musaku.
I mean, it is a great category.
I agree with you, Aisha.
I think the Elle Fanning performance, it is not the showiest performance in it.
Not that it's a particularly showy movie, but it's maybe not the biggest performance in it.
But I think in some ways it's the hardest to get right because it's not necessarily naturally sympathetic, and yet it is.
She is meant to be a sympathetic character.
And some of the realizations that she comes to over the course of that movie are really emotionally complicated.
I think it is a beautiful performance.
Again, no bad choices.
Stephen, we are moving on to actor in a supporting role.
So run us through some nominees.
All right, we've got Benicio del Toro for One Battle After Another.
He plays a karate instructor who aids Leonardo DiCaprio's ex-revolutionary.
We've got Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein.
He plays the creature in this adaptation of the Mary Shelley classic.
Delroy Lindo for Sinners.
Lindo plays a harmonica player at a juke joint whose opening night doesn't go as planned.
Sean Penn for One Battle After Another.
Penn plays Colonel Lockjaw, who is seeking revenge against a group of ex-revolutionaries.
And Stellan Skarsgard for Sentimental Value.
Skarsgard plays a filmmaker who is working on his next film while trying to reconnect with his daughters.
All right.
I have been told that we are firmly divided in this case on who we think is going to win.
So I'm going to let, not my team, I'm going to let Team Stellan Skarsgård go first.
Aisha, the floor is yours.
Let me start by saying, I don't think he should be in this category.
He should be in Best Actor.
He's not a supporting actor in Sentimental Value.
But...
I think what makes me think he will win is just a feeling, if I'm being honest.
I don't know.
I don't know.
I feel as though he is a respected vet.
And I think that can go a long way.
And this is a movie that is very deeply emotional.
And I think it might connect, especially since he's playing a film director in this movie.
I think there's all these little factors.
So again, just a gut, just a feeling.
I think it could be him.
But Honestly, it could go any way.
This is just where I'm staking my claim.
Yeah, this was a tough one to predict.
I could certainly see them going with Sean Penn, which is a showier performance and the Academy loves Sean Penn.
I went with Skarsgård in part because, looking at the nominations, it's clear that the Academy loves.
Sentimental value relates to it deeply.
Its themes of balancing art and life, I think, are extremely resonant for a lot of Academy voters.
And I think they relate to no one in this film, quite the way they relate to Stellan Skarsgård's character.
And the fact that you have, as Aisha mentioned, a little bit of category fraud here.
Shades of Kieran Culkin last year in a film that doesn't really feel like a true supporting performance gives him a lot of opportunities to shine.
So that's the direction I went in terms of predicting who I think will win.
All right.
Well, Glenn, you, like I, chose Sean Penn as the person who is going to win.
Why did you make that choice?
Yeah, I went with Stephen's first thought, first draft thought.
Look, Oscar's going to Oscar.
I don't think it's deserving.
I think it's a fun performance, but it is a cartoon.
Character's name is Lockjaw.
But as Stephen mentioned, they love nominating Sean.
I get that.
I get that.
I picked it for, basically when I heard Stephen say you know they love Sean Penn and it's a very big, showy performance.
I was like, yep, that's why.
I don't think that the Oscars have a history of rewarding subtlety, perhaps as much as I would like.
You know, even in that same movie, the Benicio Del Toro performance is incredible.
A little bit funnier, more low-key performance, shall we say?
Or nuanced.
I think it's going to be Sean Penn.
But Ayesha, I'm curious, who did you pick for should win?
I mean, give Delroy Lindo an Oscar, please.
Again, I keep going back to these moments where all the performers find in this movie, but especially Delroy Lindo, when we first were introduced to him at that train station.
He has to play a drunkard, but he's a drunkard who also has moments of clarity and is quick-witted and is sympathetic.
And he's just so good.
He also has like a few lines in there that are actually like genuinely funny.
I got socks holding this here boy.
What the hell you know about the blues?
I also keep just thinking again to the body of work and what he's been able to do.
And I'm still mad about Defy Bloods and how Like his role in that movie.
He's so great in that.
So great in that.
So great in this.
And, you know, Jacob Allerty, fantastic.
Benicio Del Toro, yes, love it.
But I would be very happy to see Delroy Lindo here.
Pretty much the same as Aisha.
Delroy Lindo is a sentimental favorite for me.
I also think he's just magnificent in this film.
He pops off the screen every time he shows up, which is what you want from a supporting performance.
I'm glad Aisha mentioned Jacob Elordi, who I think is kind of a revelation in Frankenstein.
I think he brings a physicality to that performance and kind of a grace to that performance that it could easily not have had.
And I think he really deepens the effect of that film.
And, though he does a fair bit of bellowing, brings a tiny bit of subtlety to a film that otherwise contains it almost not at all.
There are certainly elements of these other performances that I admire.
I mean, Sean Penn, if nothing else, it's a very committed performance.
But for me, Lindo is who I think should win.
Same.
It's such a small role, but he gets to play a lot of different notes, a lot of different aspects of them, and they all feel true.
He's been out here putting in the work.
And if he wins, they're just going to say oh, Oscars was trying to make up for Da 5 Bloods, which would be fine.
Exactly.
Yes.
You know, as I hear all of you advocate for Delroy Lindo, that sounds right to me.
I cannot disagree with anything that you said.
I did go with Jacob Elordi just because I think that performance is so odd.
That character is often presented in a very physically blunt way.
And I did appreciate the specificity of the kind of take that he chose with Del Toro.
So I went with Elordi.
Now, Aisha, bring us home.
Best director nominations.
Baby, we're going home.
All right.
First up, Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme.
Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value.
Chloe Zhao for Hamnet.
And now we have the presumed frontrunners Paul Thomas Anderson, for One Battle After Another, and Ryan Coogler for Sinners.
All right, Glenn, you think that Paul Thomas Anderson is going to take it.
Tell me why.
Because, again, Oscar is going to Oscar.
I think there's some old school established Academy voters who are going to see this as their opportunity to finally give Paul Thomas Anderson the Oscar he has not gotten.
If there is a sense among those people that Kugler, you know, just hasn't earned it yet baby, it's going to manifest here.
Yeah.
I mean, I said a similar thing when we were talking about Best Picture.
And I think that it's time is really what's working in Paul Thomas Anderson's favor right now.
And also just the fact that it has this that movie has done relatively well at the box office.
People are happy about it.
And we cannot, you know, undersell how much like people who are voting on these things really still care about movies being seen in theaters and people being excited about seeing movies in theaters.
And so I think that this is Paul Thomas Henderson's moment and he will win.
Replace everything Aisha just said.
Just replace the words Paul Thomas Anderson with Ryan Coogler.
I mean, from your lips to the voters' ears.
In part because, like, don't count out the fact that Sinners made a boatload of money.
It made a lot more money than One Battle After Another.
Maybe I'm speaking to you with my heart and not my head, maybe.
For a while I had really been thinking like maybe Sinners wins Best Picture and Paul Thomas Anderson wins Best Director.
But as I said, kind of at the top of this show, I'm breaking all ties in favor of Sinners.
This feels like a neck and neck race.
And in a neck and neck race, I'm going with Sinners.
I love a hunch, buddy.
I absolutely love a hunch.
And and I went with Ryan Coogler to basically for the same reasons.
I think it's between Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler.
And I just think everything that Ryan Coogler is doing right now is so cool and interesting.
And there is to me an opportunity to actually say hey, he's like one of the most interesting directors we currently have.
Plus, he's incredibly commercially successful.
Maybe we should give him an Oscar.
Do I think that's always what's going to happen?
No.
But I also think that he should win, which it sounds like Stephen does also.
It sounds like Stephen and I are both going with will and should for Ryan Coogler.
100% sure.
And I will admit that, like Stephen, it's a little bit listening to heart more than head.
But, Aisha, where do you come down on should win?
Are you Coogler for should win?
Yes, definitely.
I am such a... pessimist when it comes to these things.
And I've also seen the way the Academy has treated Black art over the years.
And for every moonlight, there's a green book or multiple green books.
I also think that if Ryan Coogler does win, he would be the first Black director to win in this category.
This is almost 100 years of this now.
And I don't know if we've come that far.
I do think that If he does win, it will be in part or in large part because of that video that he made explaining all the formats and the way he did it, which is just like chef's kiss director's catnip.
And that alone should be why he wins.
I mean obviously sinners, but like yes to that as well, because it's just like a brilliant piece of explaining why film is important.
And so, yeah, give it to Ryan Coogler.
Same.
If we're going to make long overdue history with this win, this is the film to do it with, because it's kind of commenting on that history.
It's also using genre elements to comment on something real.
It's not elevating horror.
What it's doing is.
It's revealing what horror has always done, which is the power of metaphor to communicate something, all the stuff that's essential and elemental and true.
So let it happen.
Everything that has ever happened has at some point never happened.
This is my optimism talking.
It's never happened until it happens.
Beyonce never won Album of the Year until she won Album of the Year.
These awards shows used to be a lot more embarrassing than they are now.
And again, I don't think it would be embarrassing if Paul Thomas Anderson won.
He's a great director.
But I'm going with my heart, man.
I think it's Ryan Coogler.
OK, we have talked about will win.
We have talked about should win.
Make sure to check your feed on Monday morning.
We will have a recap of the Oscars telecast right here in your podcast feed.
You will not want to miss it.
And of course, we want to know what you think about this year's Oscar nominees.
Find us on Facebook at Facebook dot com slash PCHH.
And on Letterboxd, we'll have a list of our favorite movies across all the categories this year.
You can find that at Letterboxd dot com slash NPR Pop Culture.
Up next, what's making us happy this week?
All right.
Now it is time for our favorite segment of this week and every week.
What's making us happy this week?
Glenn, kick us off.
What's making you happy this week?
Arco is one of the animated features up for an Academy Award this year.
It's French.
It owes a lot to Miyazaki.
It's about a little kid who goes back in time from the far future, to an Earth that is in the throes of climate change, put it that way and makes friends with a little girl, and they have adventures.
I'm usually a sub, not dub guy, but the version of this film that I saw was dubbed and the three kind of wacky vampires sort of villains are voiced by Flea, Andy Samberg and Will Ferrell and I'm not going to turn out my nose at that.
It's a lot of fun.
ARCO is available streaming on demand.
I think it's going to get creamed by K-pop demon hunters.
But that doesn't mean it's not a fun movie to watch.
All right.
Thank you very much, Glenn Weldon.
Ayesha Harris, what is making you happy this week?
I am going to keep it in the Oscars realm and I'm going to say that it is Buddy Guy performing a Tiny Desk concert.
It's such a lovely little moment.
He performs, you know, some classics, Hoochie Coochie Man.
But then he brings out Miles Caton, who played Sammy in Sinners.
And they perform a couple of songs together, including I Lied to You.
And it's just magic.
And there's just something lovely about it.
It's amazing.
I'm so glad Buddy Guy is still with us.
He's still got the verb and the viv and the charisma.
I am recommending the Buddy Guy Tiny Desk Concert.
Go check it out.
It's so good.
Excellent.
Excellent pick.
Thank you very much, Aisha Harris.
Stephen Thompson, what is making you happy this week?
So mine is not Oscars adjacent.
Last week, a new benefit compilation album dropped called Help 2.
It's a fundraiser for a group called War Child UK, which raises money for children affected by conflicts around the world.
The first Help album came out this 30 years ago and included some of the biggest names in British music.
This one is similarly ambitious, but expands its list of contributors to include artists like Olivia Rodrigo, who does a lovely cover of the Book of Love by the Magnetic Fields, one of the greatest songs ever written.
There are tons of great covers here, but the one I've been kind of living in for the last few days is a version of the song Lilac Wine.
That song has been recorded by Eartha Kitt, Nina Simone, and Jeff Buckley, among many others.
Here it is performed by Arooj Aftab, who's one of my favorites, and Beck.
I was hypnotized by the stream.
It's a beautiful set of music that is help to a benefit from War Child Records.
All right.
Thank you very much, Stephen Thompson.
Okay.
We've talked about a gazillion wonderful, excellent Oscar movies.
Now I'm going to provide balance by telling you about a very bad movie that I enjoyed watching a great deal, which is Mercy, starring Chris Pratt, as a person being tried by an ai judge, played by rebecca ferguson.
Now, when i tell you that this movie is bad, it is very bad.
It is what my buddies over at the flop house would call a good bad movie, which is you.
I could not stop giggling at some of the dialogue, some of the efforts by chris pratt to play a very serious police officer who spends most of the movie sitting in a chair searching the internet.
The setup being that he is trying to defend himself against an allegation that he has killed his wife.
This is not a due process heavy setup that they have going on here.
The question isn't, what was the best thing you saw this week?
The question was, what made you happy this week?
And everyone who has talked to me about Mercy knows that I had a great time Is Mercy our new trap?
Oh, trap is much better than Mercy.
Oh, wow.
Oh, trap is much better than Mercy.
Mercy wishes it was trap.
So at any rate, that is what is making me happy this week.
You can find it streaming.
I paid to rent it.
If you want links for what we recommended, plus some additional recommendations, sign up for our newsletter at nprorg slash pop culture newsletter.
That brings us to the end of our show.
Aisha Harris, Glenn Weldon, Stephen Thompson.
Thank you so much for being here to talk about the Oscars.
Woo!
Thank you.
Yeah, thank you.
Thank you.
This episode is produced by Liz Metzger and edited by our showrunner, Jessica Reedy.
They work very hard on this episode.
Thank you so much.
Hello, Come In provides our theme music.
Thanks for listening to Pop Culture Happy Hour from NPR.
I'm Linda Holmes, and we will see you bright and early for our Oscars wrap up next week.
