Welcome to English as a Second Language podcast number 921, Describing Chance and Probability.
This is English as a Second Language podcast episode 921.
I'm your host, Dr Jeff McQuillan, coming to you from the Center for Educational Development in beautiful Los Angeles, California.
This episode, like all of our episodes, has a learning guide.
You can download it at eslpod.com.
This episode is a dialogue that's going to Give us some of the vocabulary we use in talking about taking a chance or how likely something is, what we call probability.
Let's get started.
What are the chances that Rob will be here on time?
I'd say it's 50-50.
You never know, he might surprise us and be early.
Fat chance of that happening.
I've known him for three years and if I had to stake my life on whether he'll arrive early or not, I'd be in big trouble.
Don't exaggerate.
Rob isn't completely irresponsible.
I'd say there is a pretty good probability that he'll be here when he said he would, especially after he promised.
His intentions are good, but he loses track of time and doesn't know what day it is half the time.
He told me that he's trying to change.
Well, as I said, his intentions are good.
He just needs to work on his follow-through.
Come on.
He could be on his way right now.
Don't hold your breath.
I'll believe his promises when hell freezes over.
Aren't you being just a wee bit cynical?
And aren't you just indulging in wishful thinking?
And I think you'd better get glasses.
Raoul says to Tiffany, What are the chances that Rob will be here on time?
What are the chances means how likely is it?
What is the probability that Rob will be here on time?
Normally, when we talk about the chances or the probability, People give a percentage how likely something is to happen.
For example...
The people who try to forecast the weather, who try to say whether it's going to rain tomorrow or not, usually give the chance of rain in a percentage.
There's a 50% chance it will rain tomorrow, or there's an 80% chance that it will rain tomorrow.
Tiffany says in talking about the chances of Rob being here on time, she says, I'd say it's 50-50.
50-50 means it could be that he shows up on time or not.
There's an equal probability.
Tiffany says, you never know.
He might surprise us and be early.
Raoul doesn't believe this, however.
He says, fat chance of that happening.
The expression fat F-A-T chance is an informal one, which means something is very unlikely, almost impossible.
It's a very informal expression.
It has nothing to do with someone being fat, someone being overweight.
It just means that there is not a very good chance.
In fact, it's almost impossible.
If my friend says to me I'm going to walk over to that woman and ask for her phone number, and I say to him fat chance.
Meaning she is not going to give you her phone number.
Maybe her email address.
I guess people give out email addresses now.
I don't know.
Anyway, Raul says, I've known him, I've known Rob, for three years.
And if I had to stake my life on whether he'll arrive early or not, I'd be in big trouble.
The expression to stake, S-T-A-K-E, your life on something, means to be completely sure of something.
So sure that you would die if you were wrong.
That's how sure you are.
You're saying, you can kill me if I'm not correct, in a way.
I'll stake my life on something means I'm absolutely sure that this is true.
Raul however is saying that if I had to stake my life on this fact that Rob will arrive early.
I would be in big trouble.
If that situation were true, I would be in a lot of trouble.
I would be in big trouble.
I would have a lot of problems.
Tiffany says don't exaggerate.
To exaggerate means to make something seem more important or larger or worse than it really is.
Raul is saying that there's no chance that Rob will arrive early.
Tiffany says don't exaggerate.
Rob isn't completely irresponsible.
To be irresponsible means to be not responsible.
To not worry about the negative consequences of your actions.
That would be irresponsible.
Rob is not responsible. completely irresponsible, Tiffany says, I'd say there's a pretty good probability, a pretty good chance, that he'll be here when he said he would, especially after he promised, or especially because he promised to be here on time.
Raoul says his intentions are good.
Rob's intentions are the things that he plans on doing.
Your intentions are your plans, what you want to do, what you are planning on doing.
Raul says his intentions are good, he wants to do the right thing, but he loses track of time and doesn't know what day it is half the time.
The expression to lose track T-R-A-C-K of something means to not be paying attention and then not to know where something is.
Normally we use this expression with time to mean to not know what time it is, to be so involved in some activity that you don't realize what the time is and often are late for things that you should not be late for.
To lose track of time then, means not to know what time it is, because you're so busy doing other things.
Raul says that's what happens to Rob.
He loses track of time.
And then he doesn't know what day it is.
He doesn't know if today's Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday.
He doesn't know what day it is half the time.
The expression half the time doesn't really refer specifically to what time it is.
It's a general expression meaning half.
Usually or at least 50% of the time.
Half the time I don't know where my dog is.
That means I usually don't know where he is.
50% of the time I don't know where he is.
Of course, it would be very difficult for me to lose track of my dog because I don't own a dog.
But if I did own a dog, I probably wouldn't know where he was half the time.
Tiffany says, Raul said, well, as I said, as I already mentioned, his intentions are good.
He just needs to work on, to work harder on, his follow-through.
Follow-through, T-H-R-O-U-G-H, means doing what you promised to do.
Tiffany says, come on, he could be on his way right now.
The expression come on here is used to indicate that Tiffany disagrees with Raul.
Tiffany thinks Raul is being unreasonable or is exaggerating.
Tiffany says, Rob could be on his way right now.
To be on your way means you are moving in a certain direction.
You are traveling in a certain direction.
Raul doesn't believe, however, that Rob is on his way.
He says, don't hold your breath.
This expression don't hold your breath means don't wait for something to happen, because it probably won't happen.
We use this expression, don't hold your breath when we are saying to someone I don't think you should expect that.
I don't think you should get your hopes up.
I don't think you should be anticipating that happening because it probably won't happen.
To hold your breath, of course, means not to breathe.
So if you hold your breath for a long time, you will possibly die.
So don't hold your breath means don't hold your breath until this happens, because it will be a very long time before it does, and then you'll be dead.
Raul doesn't believe Rob will be here on time.
In fact, he says, I'll believe his promises when hell freezes over.
This is an old expression.
When hell freezes over is used to show that you don't believe this will ever happen.
Hell is, according to some traditions, a place where you go after you die if you have been evil or bad during your life.
Hell is very hot, so for hell to freeze over, for water to freeze in hell, would be basically impossible, because hell is supposed to be a very hot place full of fire and that sort of thing.
There's a related expression, a snowball's chance in hell.
A snowball is a round ball made of snow.
Snow. a snowball's chance in hell would not be very good.
In other words, because hell is so hot, the snowball will melt.
It doesn't have a chance.
It won't survive.
That's what it means.
Both of these expressions are very informal.
You wouldn't use them in a formal business situation.
Tiffany says, aren't you being just a wee bit cynical?
A we, W-E-E, bit, B-I-T, is an old expression that means a little bit, a tiny amount.
It's often used sarcastically.
It's often used jokingly when someone is actually doing something in a much larger amount or in a much larger way.
Tiffany is saying that Raul is being a wee bit cynical.
What she really means is he's being very cynical.
To be cynical, C-Y-N-I-C-A-L, means not to believe something, especially not to believe that other people are good or have good intentions.
Raul says, and aren't you just indulging in wishful thinking?
To indulge I-N-D-U-L-G-E in wishful thinking means to pretend that everything is good, that everything is happy, even when it is not.
We do this sometimes so that we don't get depressed, so that we don't feel unhappy.
But it's not realistic.
It's not what is actually happening in the world.
Tiffany says, hey, I think that's him coming down the road.
Tiffany thinks she sees Rob walking down the street.
Tiffany says, I think you'd better eat your words.
To eat your words is a somewhat odd expression.
It means to be forced to admit that you are wrong.
This is often used when it's an embarrassing situation for the person to admit that they've made a mistake, that they're wrong.
Raul, however, at the end of the dialogue still doesn't believe he's wrong.
He says, I think you'd better get glasses.
Meaning Tiffany is not seeing what she thinks she sees.
She needs glasses so that she can see better.
And if she had glasses, she would see that it was not Rob who was walking down the road.
Now let's listen to the dialogue, this time at a normal speed.
I'd say it's 50-50.
You never know, he might surprise us and be early.
Fat chance of that happening.
I've known him for three years and if I had to stake my life on whether he'll arrive early or not, I'd be in big trouble.
Don't exaggerate.
Rob isn't completely irresponsible.
I'd say there's a pretty good probability that he'll be here when he said he would, especially after he promised.
His intentions are good, but he loses track of time and doesn't know what day it is half the time.
He told me that he's trying to change.
Well, as I said, his intentions are good.
He just needs to work on his follow-through.
Come on.
He could be on his way right now.
Don't hold your breath.
I'll believe his promises when hell freezes over.
Aren't you being a wee bit cynical?
And aren't you just indulging in wishful thinking?
Hey, I think that's him coming down the road.
I think you'd better eat your words.
And I think you'd better get glasses.
There's a 99 probability that you will learn new vocabulary if you listen to the scripts written by our wonderful script writer, Dr Lucy Say.
From Los Angeles, California, I'm Jeff McQuillan.
Thank you for listening.
Come back and listen to us again right here on ESL Podcast.
English as a Second Language podcast is written and produced by Dr Lucy Say, hosted by Dr Jeff McQuillan.
Copyright 2013 by the Center for Educational Development.
