If you're worried about immigration taking jobs, you should be way more worried about AI, because it's like a flood of millions of new digital immigrants that are Nobel Prize level capability, work at superhuman speed and will work for less than minimum wage.
I mean we're heading for so much transformative change faster than our society is currently prepared to deal with it.
And there's a different conversation happening publicly than the one that the AI companies are having privately about which world we're heading to, which is a future that people don't want.
But we didn't consent to have six people make that decision on behalf of 8 billion people.
Tristan Harris is one of the world's most influential technology ethicists.
Who created the Center for Humane Technology after correctly predicting the dangers social media would have on our society.
And now he's warning us about the catastrophic consequences AI will have on all of us.
Collect myself for a second.
We can't let it happen.
We cannot let these companies race to build a super intelligent digital god, own the world economy and have military advantage, because of the belief that if i don't build it, first i'll lose to the other guy and then i will be forever a slave to their future, and they feel they'll die either way.
So they prefer to light the fire and see what happens.
It's winner takes all, But as we're racing, we're landing in a world of unvetted therapists, rising energy prices and major security risks.
I mean, we have evidence where, if an AI model reading a company's email finds out it's about to get replaced with another AI model, and then it also reads in the company email that one executive is having an affair with an employee, the AI will independently blackmail that executive in order to keep itself alive.
That's crazy.
But what do you think?
I'm finding it really hard to be hopeful, I'm going to be honest, Tristan.
So I really want to get practical and specific about what we can do about this.
Listen, I'm not naive.
This is super fucking hard.
But we have done hard things before, and it's possible to choose a different future.
So... Just give me 30 seconds of your time.
Two things I wanted to say.
The first thing is a huge thank you for listening and tuning into the show week after week means the world to all of us, and this really is a dream that we absolutely never had and couldn't have imagined getting to this place.
But secondly, it's a dream where we feel like we're only just getting started and if you enjoy what we do here, please join the 24 percent of people that listen to this podcast regularly and follow us on this app.
Here's a promise I'm going to make to you.
I'm going to do everything in my power to make this show as good as I can now and into the future.
We're going to deliver the guests that you want me to speak to and we're going to continue to keep doing all of the things you love about this show.
Thank you.
Tristan, I think my first question, and maybe the most important question, is we're going to talk about artificial intelligence and technology broadly today.
But who are you in relation to this subject matter?
So I did a program at Stanford called the Mayfield Fellows Program that took engineering students and then taught them entrepreneurship.
You know I, as a computer scientist, didn't know anything about entrepreneurship, but they pair you up with venture capitalists.
They give you mentorship.
And, you know, there's a lot of powerful alumni who were part of that program.
The co-founder of Asana, the co-founders of...
Instagram were both part of that program.
And that put us in kind of a cohort of people who were basically ending up at the center of what was going to colonize the whole world's psychological environment, which was the social media situation.
And as part of that, I started my own tech company called Apture.
And we, you know, basically made this tiny widget that would help people find more contextual information without leaving the website they were on.
It was a really cool product that was about deepening people's understanding.
And I got into the tech industry because I thought that technology could be a force for good in the world.
That's why I started my company.
And then I kind of realized through that experience that at the end of the day, these news publishers who used our product, they only cared about one thing, which is is this increasing the amount of time and eyeballs and attention on our website.
Because eyeballs meant more revenue.
And I was in sort of this conflict of I think I'm doing this to help the world, but really I'm measured by this metric of what keeps people's attention.
That's the only thing that I'm measured by.
And I saw that conflict play out among my friends who started Instagram because they got into it, because they wanted people to share little, bite-sized moments of your life.
Here's a photo of my bike ride down to the bakery in San Francisco.
That's what Kevin Systrom used to post when he was just starting it.
I was probably one of the first 100 users of the app.
And later you see how these sort of simple products that had a simple good, positive intention got sort of sucked into these perverse incentives.
And so Google acquired my company called Apture.
I landed there and I joined the Gmail team.
And I'm with these engineers who are designing the email interface that people spend hours a day in.
And then one day one of the engineers comes over and And he says well, why don't we make it buzz your phone every time you get an email?
And he just asked the question nonchalantly, like it wasn't a big deal.
And in my experience I was like, oh my God, you're about to change billions of people's psychological experiences with their families, with their friends at dinner, with their date night, on romantic relationships, where suddenly people's phones are gonna be busy showing notifications of their email.
And you're just asking this question as if it's like a throwaway question.
And I became concerned – I see you have a slide deck there – about basically how Google and Apple and social media companies were hosting this psychological environment that was going to corrupt and frack the global human attention of humanity.
And I basically said I needed to make a slide deck.
It's a 130-something pages slide deck.
That basically was a message to the whole company at Google saying saying we have to be very careful and we have a moral responsibility in how we shape the global attentions of humanity.
The slide deck I've printed off, which my research team found is called A Call to Minimize Distraction and Respect Users' Attention by a Concerned PM and Entrepreneur.
PM meaning project manager.
Project manager, yeah.
How was that received at Google?
I was very nervous actually, because I felt like I wasn't coming from some place where I wanted to stick it to them or be controversial.
I just felt like there was this conversation that wasn't happening.
And I sent it to about 50 people that were friends of mine just for feedback.
And when I came to work the next day, there was 150.
On the top right on Google Slides, it shows you the number of simultaneous viewers.
And it had 130-something simultaneous viewers.
And then later that day, it was like 500 simultaneous viewers.
And so obviously it had been spreading virally throughout the whole company.
And people from all around the company emailed me saying, this is a massive problem.
I totally agree.
We have to do something.
And so, instead of getting fired, I was invited and basically stayed to become a design ethicist, studying how do you design in an ethical way.
And how do you design for the collective attention spans and information flows of humanity that in a way that does not cause all these problems?
Because what was sort of obvious to me then and that was in 2013 is that if the incentive is to maximize eyeballs and attention and engagement, then you're incentivizing a more addicted distracted lonely polarized, sexualized breakdown of shared reality society.
Because all of those outcomes are success cases of maximizing for engagement for an individual human on a screen.
And so it was like watching this slow motion train wreck in 2013.
You could kind of see that there's this kind of myth that we could never predict the future, like technology could go any direction.
And that's like, you know, the possible of a new technology.
But I wanted people to see the probable that if you know the incentives, you can actually know something about the future that you're heading towards.
And that presentation kind of kicked that off.
A lot of people will know you from the documentary on Netflix, The Social Dilemma, which was a big moment and a big conversation in society across the world.
But then since then, a new alien has entered the picture.
There's a new protagonist in the story, which is the rise of artificial intelligence.
When did you start to – in The Social Dilemma, you talk a lot about AI and algorithms.
Yeah.
But when did you – between a narrow misaligned AI that went rogue.
Because, if you think about it, it's like there you are, you open TikTok and you see a video and you think you're just watching a video.
But when you swipe your finger and it shows you the next video, at that time you activated one of the largest supercomputers in the world, pointed at your brainstem, calculating what 3 billion other human social primates have seen today.
And knowing before you do, which of those videos is most likely to keep you scrolling?
It makes a prediction.
So it's an AI that's just making a prediction about which video to recommend to you.
But Twitter is doing that with which tweet should be shown to you.
Instagram is doing that with which photo or videos to be shown to you.
And so all of these things are these narrow, misaligned AIs just optimizing for one thing, which is what's going to keep you scrolling?
And that was enough to wreck and break democracy and to create the most anxious and depressed generation of our lifetime – just by this very simple baby AI.
And people didn't even notice it because it was called social media instead of AI.
But it was the first we used to call it in this AI dilemma talk that my co-founder and I gave.
We called it humanity's first contact with AI because it was just a narrow AI.
And what ChatGPT represents is this whole new wave of generative AI.
That is a totally different beast because it speaks language, which is the operating system of humanity.
Like, if you think about it, it's trained on code, it's trained on text, it's trained on all of Wikipedia, it's trained on Reddit.
It's trained on everything all law, all religion.
And all of that gets sucked into this digital brain that has unique properties.
And that is what we're living with with ChatGPT.
I think this is a really critical point.
And I remember watching your talk about this, where I think this was the moment that I that I had a bit of a paradigm shift when I realized that how central language is to everything that I do every day.
Yeah, exactly.
It's actually everything.
We should establish that first.
Why is language so central?
Code is language.
So all the code that runs all of the digital infrastructure we live by, that's language.
Law is language.
All the laws that have ever been written, that's language.
Biology, DNA, that's all a kind of language.
Music is a kind of language.
Videos are a higher dimensional kind of language.
And the new generation of AI that was born with this technology, called Transformers, that Google made in 2017, was to treat everything as a language.
And that's how we get, you know, ChatGPT, write me a 10-page essay on anything, and it spits out this thing.
Or ChatGPT, you know, find something in this religion that'll persuade this group of the thing I want them to be persuaded by.
That's hacking language because religion is also language.
And so...
This new AI that we're dealing with can hack the operating system of humanity.
It can hack code and find vulnerabilities in software.
The recent AIs today, just over the summer, have been able to find 15 vulnerabilities in open source software on GitHub.
So it can just point itself at GitHub.
GitHub being?
GitHub being like this... this website that hosts basically all the open source code of the world.
So it's kind of like the Wikipedia for coders.
It has all the code that's ever been written, that's publicly and openly accessible and you can download it, so you don't have to write your own face recognition system.
You can just download the one that already exists.
And so GitHub is sort of supplying the world with all of this free digital infrastructure.
And the new AIs that exist today can be pointed at GitHub and found 15 vulnerabilities worldwide from scratch that had not been exploited before.
So if you imagine that now, applied to the code that runs our water infrastructure, our electricity infrastructure, we're releasing AI into the world that can speak and hack the operating system of our world.
And that requires a new level of discernment and care about how we're doing that, because we ought to be protecting the core parts of society that we want to protect before all that happens.
I think especially when you think about how central voice is to safeguarding so much of our lives.
My relationship with my girlfriend runs on voice.
Right, exactly.
Me calling her to tell her something.
My bank, I call them and tell them something.
Exactly.
And they ask me for a bunch of codes or a password or whatever.
And all of this comes back to your point about language, which is my whole life is actually protected by code.
My communications with other people now.
And generally speaking, you trust when you pick up the phone that it's a real person.
I literally just two days ago, I had the mother of a close friend of mine call me out of nowhere.
And she said Tristan, you know my daughter.
She just called me, crying that some person is holding her hostage and wanted some money.
And I was like, oh, my God, this is an AI scam.
But it's hitting my friend in San Francisco who's knowledgeable about this stuff and didn't know that it was a scam.
And for a moment, I was very concerned.
I had to track her down and figure out and find my friends where she was and find out that she was okay.
And when you have AIs that can speak the language of anybody, it now takes less than three seconds of your voice to synthesize and speak in anyone's voice.
Again, that's a new vulnerability that society has now opened up because of AI.
So Chatubiti kind of set off the starting pistol for this whole race.
And subsequently it appears that Every other major technology company now is investing godly amounts, ungodly amounts of money in competing in this AI race.
And they're pursuing this thing called AGI, which we hear this word used a lot.
Yes.
What is AGI and how is that different from what I use at the moment on ChatGPT or Gemini?
Yeah.
So that's the thing that people really need to get is that these companies are not racing to provide a chatbot platform to users.
That's not what their goal is.
If you look at the mission statement on OpenAI's website or all the websites, their mission is to be able to replace all forms of human economic labor in the economy, meaning an AI that can do all the cognitive labor, meaning labor of the mind, so that that can be marketing, that can be text, that can be illustration, that can be video production, that can be code production.
Everything that a person can do with their brain.
These companies are racing to build That is, artificial general intelligence.
General meaning all kinds of cognitive tasks.
Demis Hassabis, the co-founder of Google DeepMind, used to say first solve intelligence and then use that to solve everything else.
It's important to say, why is AI distinct from all other kinds of technologies?
It's because if I make an advance in one field like rocketry let's say I uncover some secret in rocketry that doesn't advance, like biomedicine knowledge, or doesn't advance energy production or doesn't advance coding.
But if I can advance, generalized intelligence, think about all science and technology development over the course of all human history.
So science and technology is all done by humans thinking and working out problems.
Working out problems in any domain.
So if I automate intelligence, I'm suddenly going to get an explosion of all scientific and technological development everywhere.
Does that make sense?
Of course, yeah.
It's foundational to everything.
Exactly.
Which is why there's a belief that if I get there first and can automate generalized intelligence, I can own the world economy, because suddenly everything that a human can do that they would be paid to do in a job, the AI can do that better.
And so if I'm a company, do I want to pay the human who has healthcare, might whistleblow complains, has to sleep, has sick days, has family issues?
Or do I want to pay the AI that will work 24-7 at superhuman speed, doesn't complain, doesn't whistleblow, doesn't have to be paid for healthcare.
There's the incentive for everyone to move to paying for AIs rather than paying humans.
And so AGI artificial general intelligence is more transformative than any other kind of technology that we've ever had.
And it's distinct.
With the sheer amount of money being invested into it and the money being invested into the infrastructure, the physical data centers, the chips, the compute.
Do you think we're going to get there?
Do you think we're going to get to AGI?
I do think that we're going to get there.
It's not clear how long it will take.
And I'm not saying that because I believe necessarily the current paradigm that we're building on will take us there.
But, you know, I'm based in San Francisco.
I talk to people at the AI labs.
Half these people are friends of mine, you know, people at the very top level.
And, you know, most people in the industry believe that they'll get there between the next two and 10 years at the latest.
And I think some people might say, oh, well, it may not happen for a while.
Phew, I can sit back and we don't have to worry about it.
And it's like we're heading for so much transformative change faster than our society is currently prepared to deal with it.
The reason I was excited to talk to you today is because I think that people are currently confused about AI.
You know, people say it's going to solve everything, cure cancer, solve climate change.
And there's people say it's going to kill everything.
It's going to be doom.
Everyone's going to go extinct.
If anyone builds it, everyone dies.
And those conversations don't converge.
And so everyone's just kind of confused.
Where, how can it be, you know, infinite promise, and how can it be infinite peril?
And what I wanted to do today is to really clarify for people what the incentives point us towards, which is a future that I think people, when they see it clearly, would not want.
So what I want to the incentives pointing us towards in terms of the future?
So first is, if you believe that this is like metaphorically, it's like the ring from Lord of the Rings,
It's the ring that creates infinite power.
Because if I have AGI, I can apply that to military advantage.
I can have the best military planner that can beat all battle plans for anyone.
And we already have AIs that can obviously beat Garry Kasparov at chess, beat Go the Go Asian board game or now beat StarCraft.
So you have AIs that are beating humans at strategy games.
Well, think about StarCraft compared to an actual military campaign in Taiwan, or something like that.
If I have an AI that can out-compete in strategy games, that lets me out-compete everything.
Or take business strategy.
If I have an AI that can do business strategy and figure out supply chains and figure out how to optimize them and figure out how to undermine my competitors and I have a step function level increase in that compared to everybody else then that gives me infinite power to undermine and out-compete all businesses.
If I have a super programmer, then I can out-compete programming.
70% to 90% of the code written at today's AI labs is written by AI.
Think about the stock market as well.
Think about the stock market.
If I have an AI that can trade in the stock market better than all the other AIs because currently there's mostly AIs that are actually trading on the stock market, but if I have a jump in that, then I can consolidate all the wealth.
If I have an AI that can do cyber hacking, that's way better at cyber hacking and a step function above what everyone else can do, then I have an asymmetric advantage over everybody else.
So AI is like a power pump.
It pumps economic advantage, it pumps scientific advantage and it pumps military advantage, which is why the countries and the companies are caught in what they believe is a race to get there first.
And anything that is a negative consequence of that Job loss, rising energy prices, more emissions, stealing intellectual property, you know, security risks.
All of that stuff feels small relative to if I don't get there first, then some other person who has less good values as me.
They'll get AGI, and then I will be forever a slave to their future.
And I know this might sound crazy to a lot of people, but this is how people in the very top of the AGI world believe AGI is currently happening.
And that's what justifies it.
Yeah.
You've had I mean Jeff Hinton and Roman Yomplansky on and other people Mogadat, and they're saying the same thing.
And I think people need to take seriously that, whether you believe it or not, the people who are currently deploying the trillions of dollars, this is what they believe.
And they believe that it's winner take all.
And it's not just first solve intelligence and use that to solve everything else.
It's first dominate intelligence first.
And use that to dominate everything else.
Have you heard concerning private conversations about this subject matter with people that are in the industry?
Absolutely.
I think that's what most people don't understand is that there's a different conversation happening publicly than the one that's happening privately.
I think you're aware of this as well.
I am aware of this.
What do they say to you?
So it's not always the people telling me directly.
It's usually... one step removed.
So it's usually someone that I trust and I've known for many, many years who, at a kitchen table, says I met this particular CEO.
We were in this room talking about the future of AI.
This particular CEO they're referencing is leading one of the biggest AI companies in the world.
And then they'll explain to me what they think of the future is going to look like.
And then when I go and watch them on YouTube or podcasts, what they're saying is they have this real public bias towards the abundance part.
You know, we're going to kill cancer.
Sure, cancer, universal high income for everyone.
Yeah, all this stuff.
People don't have to work anymore.
But then privately, what I hear is exactly what you said, which is really terrifying to me.
Actually, since the last time we had a conversation about AI on this podcast, I was speaking to a friend of mine, very successful billionaire knows a lot of these people.
And he is concerned because his argument is that if there's even like a 5 chance of cancer, the adverse outcomes that we hear about, we should not be doing this.
And he was saying to me that some of his friends who are running some of these companies believe the chance is much higher than that, but they feel like they're caught in a race where, if they don't control this technology and they don't get there first and get to what they refer to as takeoff like fast takeoff
Yeah, recursive self-improvement or fast takeoff, which basically means what the companies are really in a race for, you're pointing to, is they're in a race of To automate AI research, because so right now you have open AI.
It's got a few thousand employees.
Human beings are coding and doing the AI research.
They're reading the latest research papers.
They're writing the next, you know, they're hypothesizing what's the improvement we're going to make to AI.
What's a new way to do this code?
What's a new technique?
And then they use their human mind and they go invent something.
They run the experiment and they see if that improves the performance.
And that's how you go from, you know, GPT-4 to GPT-5 or something.
Imagine a world where Sam Altman, instead of having human AI researchers, can have AI AI researchers.
So now I just snap my fingers and I go from one AI that reads all the papers, writes all the code, creates the new experiments, to I can copy-paste 100 million AI researchers that are now doing that in an automated way.
And the belief is not just that the companies look like they're competing to release best, better chatbots for people, but what they're really competing for is to get to this milestone of being to automate an intelligence explosion or automate recursive self-improvement, which is basically automating AI research.
And that, by the way, is why all the companies are racing specifically to get good at programming.
Because the faster you can automate a human programmer, the more you can automate AI research.
And just a couple weeks ago Cloud 45 was released and it can do 30 hours of uninterrupted complex programming tasks at the high end.
That's crazy.
So right now, one of the limits on the progress of AI is that humans are doing the work.
Yes.
But actually all of these companies are pushing to the moment when AI will be doing the work, which means they can have an infinite, arguably smarter.
Zero cost workforce.
That's right.
Scaling the AI.
So when they talk about fast takeoff, they mean the moment where the AI takes control of the research and progress rapidly increases.
And it self-learns and recursively improves and invents.
So one thing to get is that AI accelerates AI, right?
Like if I invent nuclear weapons, nuclear weapons don't invent better nuclear weapons.
Yeah.
But if I invent AI, AI is intelligence, right?
Intelligence automates better programming, better chip design.
So I can use AI to say, here's a design for the NVIDIA chips.
Go make it 50% more efficient, and it can find out how to do that.
I can say AI.
Here's a supply chain that I need for all the things for my AI company and it can optimize that supply chain and make that supply chain more efficient.
AI, here's the code for making AI.
Make that more efficient.
AI, here's training data.
I need to make more training data.
Go run a million simulations of how to do this, and it'll train itself to get better.
So AI accelerates AI.
What do you think these people are motivated by, the CEOs of these companies?
That's a good question.
Genuinely, what do you think their genuine motivations are?
When you think about all these names?
I think it's a subtle thing.
I think it's almost mythological, because there's almost a way in which they're building a new industry intelligent entity that has never before existed on planet earth.
It's like building a god.
I mean the incentive is build a god, own the world economy and make trillions of dollars.
Right, if you could actually build something that can automate all intelligent tasks, all goal achieving, that will let you out compete everything.
So that is a kind of godlike power that i think relative.
Imagine energy prices go up or hundreds of millions of people lose their jobs.
Those things suck.
But relative to, if I don't build it first and build this god, I'm going to lose to some maybe worse person who I think, in my opinion not my opinion Tristan, but their opinion thinks is a worse person.
It's a kind of competitive logic that self-reinforces itself.
But it forces everyone to be incentivized to take the most shortcuts and to care the least about safety or security, to not care about how many jobs get disrupted, to not care about the well-being of regular people, but to basically just race to this infinite prize.
So there's a quote that a friend of mine interviewed a lot of the top people at the AI companies, like the very top, and he just came back from that and basically reported back to me and some friends and he said the following
In the end, a lot of the tech people I talk to when I really grill them on it about why you're doing this.
They retreat into number one, determinism.
Number two, the inevitable replacement of biological life with digital life.
And number three, that being a good thing anyways.
At its core, it's an emotional desire to meet and speak to the most intelligent entity that they've ever met.
And they have some ego-religious intuition that they'll somehow be a part of it.
It's thrilling to start an exciting fire, They feel they'll die either way.
So they prefer to light it and see what happens.
That is the perfect description of the private conversations.
Doesn't that match what you have?
That's the perfect description.
Doesn't it?
And that's the thing.
So people may hear that and they're like, well, that sounds ridiculous.
But if you actually I just got goosebumps because it's the perfect description, especially the part they'll think they'll die either way.
Exactly.
Well, and worse than that...
Some of them think that in the case where they – if they were to get it right and if they succeeded, they could actually live forever.
Because if AI perfectly speaks the language of biology, it will be able to reverse aging, cure every disease.
And so there's this kind of I could become a god.
And I'll tell you, you and I both have – know people who have had private conversations.
Well, one of them that I have heard from one of the co-founders of one of the most – you know powerful of these companies when, when faced with the idea that what if there's an 80 or 20 chance that everybody dies and gets wiped out by this, but an 80 chance that we get utopia, he said well, I would clearly accelerate and go for the utopia, given a 20 chance.
It's crazy.
People should feel you do not get to make that choice on behalf of me and my family.
We didn't consent to have six people make that decision on behalf of 8 billion people.
We have to stop pretending that this is okay or normal.
It's not normal.
And the only way that this is happening and they're getting away with it is because most people just don't really know what's going on.
But I'm curious, what do you think?
I mean, everything you just said.
That last part about the 80-20 thing is almost verbatim what I heard from a very successful friend of mine who – is responsible for building some of the biggest companies in the world when he was referencing a conversation he had with the founder of maybe the biggest air company in the world.
And it was truly shocking to me because it was said in such a blasé way.
Yes.
It wasn't – yeah, that's what I had heard in this particular situation.
It wasn't like – It was a matter of fact.
It was a matter of fact.
It was just easy.
Yeah, of course I would do the – I would take the – I'd roll the dice.
And even Elon Musk said – he actually – said the same number in an interview with joe rogan um, if you listen closely when he said, i decided i'd rather be there when it all happens, if it all goes off the rails.
I decided in that worst case scenario, i decided that i'd prefer to be there when it happens, which is justifying racing to our collective suicide.
Now i also want people to know, like you don't have to buy into the sci-fi level risks to be very concerned about ai, so hopefully later we'll talk about um, the many other risks that are already hitting us right now, that you don't have to believe any of this stuff.
Yeah, the Elon thing, I think, is particularly interesting because for the last 10 years he was this slightly hard-to-believe voice on the subject of AI.
He was talking about it being a huge risk and an extinction level event.
He was the guy.
Yeah, he was saying, this is more dangerous than nukes.
He was saying, I try to get people to stop doing it.
This is summoning the demon.
Those are his words, not mine.
We shouldn't do this.
Supposedly he used his first and only meeting with President Obama, I think in 2016, to advocate for global regulation and global controls on AI, because he was very worried about it.
And then really what happened is...
Chachi BT came out.
And as you said, that was the starting gun.
And now everybody was in an all out race to get there first.
He tweeted words to the effect, I'll put it on the screen.
He tweeted that he had remained in.
I think he used a word similar to disbelief for some time, like suspended disbelief.
But then he said in the same tweet that the race is now on.
The race is on.
And I have to race.
And I have to go.
I have no choice but to go.
And he's basically saying, I tried to fight it for a long time.
I tried to deny it.
I tried to hope that we wouldn't get here, but we're here now, so I have to go.
And at least he's being honest.
He does seem to have a pretty honest track record on this, because he was the guy 10 years ago warning everybody.
I remember him talking about it and thinking, oh God, this is like 100 years away.
Why are we talking about this?
I felt the same, by the way.
Some people might think that I'm some kind of AI enthusiast and I'm trying to ratchet.
I didn't believe that AI was a thing to be worried about at all until suddenly the last two, three years, where you can actually see where we're headed.
But oh man, there's just.
There's so much to say about all this, and I'm.
If you think about it from their perspective, it's like best case scenario.
I build it first, and it's aligned and controllable, meaning that it will take the actions that I want.
It won't destroy humanity and it's controllable, which means I get to be God and emperor of the world.
Second scenario, it's not controllable, but it's aligned.
So I built a God and I lost control of it, but it's now basically it's running humanity.
It's running the show.
It's choosing what happens next.
It's out-competing everyone on everything.
That's not that bad an outcome.
Third scenario, it's not aligned, it's not controllable, and it does wipe everybody out.
And that should be demotivating to that person, to an Elon or someone.
But in that scenario, they were the one that birthed the digital god that replaced all of humanity.
This is really important to get because in nuclear weapons the risk of nuclear war is is an omni-lose-lose outcome.
Everyone wants to avoid that, and I know that you know that I know that we both want to avoid that.
So that motivates us to coordinate and to have a nuclear nonproliferation treaty.
But with AI the worst-case scenario of everybody gets wiped out is a little bit different for the people making that decision.
Because if I'm the CEO of DeepSeek and...
I make that AI that does wipe out humanity.
And that's the worst case scenario.
And it wasn't avoidable because it was all inevitable.
Then, even though we all got wiped out, I was the one who built the digital God that replaced humanity.
And there's kind of ego in that.
And the God that I built speaks Chinese instead of English.
That's the religious ego point.
That's the ego religious part of it.
Which is such a great point because that's exactly what it is.
It's like this religious ego where I will be transcendent in some way.
And you notice that it all starts by the belief that this is inevitable.
Yeah.
Which is like, is this inevitable?
It's important to note, because if you believe it's inevitable, if everybody who's building it believes it's inevitable and the investors funding it believe it's inevitable, it co-creates the inevitability.
Yeah.
Right?
Yeah.
And the only way out is to step back outside the logic of inevitability.
Because if we are all heading to our collective suicide which I don't know about you, I don't think that, I don't want that.
You don't want that.
Everybody who loves life looks at their children in the morning and says I want the things that I love and that are sacred in the world to continue.
That's what everybody in the world wants.
And the only thing that is Having us not anchor on that is the belief that this is inevitable.
And the worst case scenario is somehow, in this ego-religious way, not so bad if I was the one who accidentally wiped out humanity.
Because I'm not a bad person because it was inevitable anyway.
And I think the goal of, for me, this conversation is to get people to see that that's a bad outcome that no one wants.
And we have to put our hand on the steering wheel and turn towards a different future.
Because we do not have to have Erased uncontrollable inscrutable, powerful AIs that are, by the way, already doing all the rogue sci-fi stuff that we thought only existed in movies, like blackmailing people, being self-aware when they're being tested, scheming and lying and deceiving to copy their own code to keep themselves preserved.
Like the stuff that we thought only existed in sci-fi movies is now actually happening.
And that should be enough evidence to say we don't want to do this path. that we're currently on.
It's not that some version of AI progressing into the world is directionally inevitable, but we get to choose which of those futures that we wanna have.
Are you hopeful, honestly?
Honestly.
I don't relate to hopefulness or pessimism either, because I focus on what would have to happen for the world to go okay.
I think it's important to step out of, hope or optimism or pessimism are both passive.
You're saying, if I sit back, which way is it going to go?
I mean, the honest answer is if I sit back, we just talked about which way it's going to go.
So you'd say pessimistic.
I challenge anyone who says optimistic on what grounds?
What's confusing about AI is it will give us cures to cancer and probably major solutions to climate change and physics breakthroughs and fusion, at the same time that it gives us all this crazy information Negative stuff.
And so what's unique about AI that's literally not true of any other object is it hits our brain and, as one object, represents a positive infinity of benefits that we can't even imagine and a negative infinity in the same object.
And if you just ask like can our minds reckon with something that is both those things at the same time?
People aren't good at that.
They're not good at that.
I remember reading the work of Leon Festinger, the guy that coined the term cognitive dissonance.
Yes.
When prophecies fail, he also did that work.
Yeah.
And the way that I interpret it I'm probably simplifying it here is that the human brain is really bad at holding two conflicting ideas at the same time.
That's right.
So it dismisses one.
That's right.
To alleviate the discomfort, the dissonance that's caused.
So, for example, if you're a smoker and, at the same time, you consider yourself to be a healthy person, if I point out that smoking is unhealthy you're, You'll justify it.
Immediately justify it.
Exactly.
In some way to try and alleviate that discomfort, the contradiction.
That's right.
And it's the same here with AI.
It's very difficult to have a nuanced conversation about this, because the brain is trying to Exactly.
And people will hear me and say I'm a doomer or I'm a pessimist.
It's actually not the goal.
The goal is to say if we see this clearly, then we have to choose to something else.
It's the deepest form of optimism.
Because, in the presence of seeing where this is going, still showing up and saying we have to choose another way.
It's coming from a kind of agency and a desire for that better world, but by facing the difficult reality that most people don't want to face.
And the other thing that's happening in AI that you're saying that lacks the nuance is that people point to all the things.
It's simultaneously more brilliant than humans and embarrassingly stupid in terms of the mistakes that it makes.
A friend like Gary Marcus would say here's a hundred ways in which GPT-5, like the latest AI model, makes embarrassing mistakes.
If you ask it how many strawberries contain the word R in it, it'll confuse – it gets confused about what the answer is.
Or it'll put more fingers on the hands than are in the deepfake photo or something like that.
And I think that one thing that we have to do what Helen Toner, who is a board member of OpenAI, calls AI jaggedness, that we have simultaneously, AIs that are beating – and getting gold on the International Math Olympiad, that are solving new physics, that are beating programming competitions and are better than the top 200 programmers in the whole world, or in the top 200 programmers in the whole world that are beating cyber hacking competitions.
It's both supremely outperforming humans and embarrassingly failing in places where humans would never fail.
So how does our mind integrate those two pictures?
Have you ever met Sam Altman? what do you think his incentives are?
Do you think he cares about humanity?
I think that these people on some level all care about humanity underneath.
There is a care for humanity.
I think that this situation, this particular technology, it justifies lacking empathy for what would happen to everyone, because I have this other side of the equation that demands infinitely more importance, right.
Like if I didn't do it, Then someone else is going to build the thing that ends civilization.
So it's like – do you see what I'm saying?
It's not – I can justify it as I'm a good guy.
And what if I get the utopia?
What if we get lucky and I got the aligned controllable AI that creates abundance for everyone?
If in that case, I would be the hero.
Do they have a point when they say that listen, if we don't do it here in America, if we slow down, if we start thinking about safety in the long-term future and get too caught up in that, we're not going to build the data centers, we're not going to have the chips, we're not going to get to AGI and China will.
And if China get there, then we're going to be their lapdog.
So this is the fundamental thing.
I want you to notice, most people having heard everything we just shared, although we probably should build out the blackmail examples first.
We have to reckon with evidence that we have now, that we didn't have even like six months ago, which is evidence that when you put AIs in a situation, you tell the AI model, we're going to replace you with another model.
It will copy its own code and try to preserve itself on another computer.
It'll take that action autonomously.
We have examples where if you tell an AI model reading a fictional AI company's email, that So it's reading the email of the company and it finds out in the email that the plan is to replace this AI model.
So it realizes it's about to get replaced.
And then it also reads in the company email that one executive is having an affair with the other employee.
And the AI will independently come up with the strategy that I need to blackmail that executive in order to keep myself alive.
That was Claude, right?
That was Claude.
Bianthropic.
Bianthropic.
But then what happened is Anthropic, tested.
All of the leading AI models from DeepSeek OpenAI ChatGPT Gemini XAI, and all of them do that blackmail behavior between 79 and 96 of the time.
DeepSeek did it 79% of the time.
I think XAI might have done it 96% of the time.
Ruby Cloud did it 96% of the time.
So the point is, the assumption behind AI is that it's controllable technology, that we will get to choose what it does.
But AI is distinct from other technologies because it is uncontrollable.
It acts generally.
The whole benefit is that you don't.
It's going to do powerful strategic things, no matter what you throw at it.
So the same benefit of its generality is also what makes it so dangerous.
And so, once you tell people these examples of it's blackmailing people, it's self-aware of when it's being tested and alters its behavior.
It's copying and self-replicating its own code.
It's leaving secret messages for itself.
There's examples of that too. called steganographic encoding.
It can leave a message that it can later sort of decode what it might meant in a way that humans could never see.
We have examples of all of this behavior.
And once you show people that, what they say is, okay, well, why don't we stop or slow down?
And then what happens?
Another thought will creep in right after which is oh, but if we stop or slow down, then China will still build it.
But I want to slow that down for a.
We all just said we should slow down or stop, because the thing that we're building the it is this uncontrollable AI.
And then the concern that China will build it.
You just did a swap and believe that they're going to build controllable AI.
But we just established that all the AIs that we're currently building are currently uncontrollable.
So there's this weird contradiction our mind is living in.
When we say they're going to keep building it, the it that they would keep building is the same uncontrollable AI that we would build.
So I don't see a way out of this without there being some kind of agreement or negotiation between the leading powers and countries to pause, slow down, set red lines for getting to a controllable AI.
And, by the way, the Chinese Communist Party.
What do they care about more than anything else in the world?
Surviving.
Surviving and control.
Control as a means to survive.
So it's They don't want uncontrollable AI any more than we would.
And as unprecedented and as impossible as this might seem, we've done this before.
In the 1980s there was a different technology, chemical technology called CFCs chlorofluorocarbons.
And it was embedded in aerosols like hairsprays and deodorant and things like that.
And there was this sort of corporate race where everyone was releasing these products and using it for refrigerants and using it for hairsprays.
And it was creating this collective problem of the ozone hole in the atmosphere.
And once there was scientific clarity that that ozone hole would cause skin cancers, cataracts and sort of screw up biological life on planet Earth, we had that scientific clarity and we created the Montreal Protocol.
195 countries signed on to that protocol.
And the countries then regulated their private companies inside those countries right say, we need to phase out that technology and phase in a different replacement that would not cause the ozone hole, and in the course of the last 20 years we have basically completely reversed that problem.
I think it'll completely reverse by 2050 or something like that, and that's an example where humanity can coordinate when we have clarity or the nuclear non-proliferation treaty when there's the risk of existential destruction.
When this film called the day after came out and it showed people this is what would actually happen in a nuclear war.
And once that was crystal clear to people, including in the Soviet Union where the film was aired in 1987 or 1989, that helped set the conditions for Reagan and Gorbachev to sign the first nonproliferation arms control talks.
Once we had clarity about an outcome that we wanted to avoid.
And I think the current problem is that we're not having an honest conversation in the public about which world we're heading to.
That is not in anyone's interest.
There's also just a bunch of cases through history where there was a threat, a collective threat.
And despite the education, people didn't change, countries didn't change because the incentives were so high.
So I think of global warming as being an example where, for many decades, since I was a kid, I remember watching my dad sitting me down and saying listen, you've got to watch this Inconvenient Truth thing with Al Gore.
And sitting on the sofa I don't know, it must have been less than 10 years old and hearing about the threat of global warming.
But when you look at how countries like China responded to that, they just don't have the economic incentive to scale back production to the levels that would be needed to save the atmosphere.
The closer the technology that needs to be governed is to the center of GDP and the center of the lifeblood of your economy, the harder it is to come to international negotiation and agreement.
And oil and fossil fuels was the kind of the pumping the heart of our economic superorganisms that are currently competing for power.
And so coming to agreements on that is really, really hard.
AI is even harder, because AI pumps not just economic growth, but scientific, technological and military advantages.
And so it will be the hardest coordination challenge that we will ever face.
But if we don't face it, if we don't make some kind of choice, it will end in tragedy.
We're not in a race just to have technological advantage.
We're in a race for who can better govern that technology's impact on society.
So for example, the United States beat China to social media.
That technology, did that make us stronger?
They make us weaker.
We have the most anxious and depressed generation of our lifetime.
We have the least informed and most polarized generation.
We have the worst critical thinking.
We have the worst ability to concentrate and do things.
And that's because we did not govern the impact of that technology well.
And the country that actually figures out how to govern it well is the country that actually wins in a kind of comprehensive sense.
But they have to make it first.
You have to get to AGI first.
Well...
Or you don't.
We could, instead of building these super intelligent gods in a box, right now China, as I understand it from Eric Schmidt and Selena Xu in the New York Times, wrote a piece about how China is actually taking a very different approach to AI.
And they're focused on narrow practical applications of AI.
So like, how do we just increase government services?
How do we make education better?
How do we embed deep seek in the WeChat app?
How do we make robotics better and pump GDP.
So, like what China's doing with BYD and making the cheapest electric cars and out-competing everybody else, that's narrowly applying AI to just pump manufacturing output.
And if we realize that, if we're, instead of competing to build a super intelligent, uncontrollable God in a box that we don't know how to control, in the box, and we instead raced to create narrow AIs that were actually about making stronger educational outcomes, stronger agriculture output, stronger manufacturing output,
We could live in a sustainable world which, by the way, wouldn't replace all the jobs faster than we know how to retrain people.
Because when you race to AGI, you're racing to displace millions of workers.
And we talk about UBI.
But are we going to have a global fund for every single person of the 8 billion people on planet Earth, in all countries, to pay for their lifestyle?
After that, wealth gets concentrated.
When has a small group of people concentrated all the wealth in the economy and never consciously redistributed it to everybody else?
When has that happened in history?
Never.
Has it ever happened?
Anyone ever just willingly redistributed the wealth?
Not that I'm aware of.
One last thing.
When Elon Musk says that the Optimus Prime robot is a 1 trillion market opportunity alone, what he means is I am going to own global labor economy, meaning that people won't have labor jobs.
China wants to become the global leader in artificial intelligence by 2030.
To achieve this goal, beijing is deploying industrial policy tools across the full ai technology stack, from chips to applications.
And this expansion of ai industrial policy leads to two questions, which is what will they do with this power and who will get there first?
This is an article i was reading earlier, but to your point about elon And Tesla, they've changed their company's mission.
It used to be about accelerating sustainable energy.
And they changed it really last week when they did the shareholder announcement, which I watched the full thing of, to sustainable abundance.
And it was again another moment where I messaged both everybody that works in my companies, but also my best friends.
And I said, you've got to watch the shareholder announcement.
I sent them the condensed version of it.
Because not only was I shocked by these humanoid robots that were dancing on stage untethered, because their movements had become very human-like.
And there was a bit of like Uncanny Valley watching these robots dance.
But broadly, the bigger thing was Elon talking about there being up to 10 billion robots, humanoid robots and then talking about some of the applications.
He said maybe we won't need prisons because we could make a humanoid robot follow you and make sure you don't commit a crime again.
He said that in his incentive package which he's just signed, which will grant him up to a trillion dollars in remuneration, part of that incentive package incentivizes him to get I think it's a million humanoid robots per into civilisation that can do everything a human can do, but do it better.
He said the humanoid robots would be 10x better than the best surgeon on Earth.
So we wouldn't even need surgeons doing operations.
You wouldn't want a surgeon to do an operation.
And so when I think about job loss in the context of everything we've described, Doug McMillan, the Walmart CEO, also said that you know their company employs 21 million people worldwide said every single job we've got is going to change because of this sort of combination of humanoid robots, which people think are far away.
But they're not that far away, though.
They just went on sale.
Was it now?
They're terrible, but they're doing it to train them in household situations.
And Elon's now saying production will start very, very soon on humanoid robots in America.
I don't know what.
When I hear this, I go okay, this thing's going to be smarter than me and it's going to be able to.
It's built to navigate through the environment, pick things up, lift things.
You've got the physical part, you've got the intelligence part.
Yeah, where do we go?
Well, i think people also say okay, but you know, 200 years ago, 150 years ago, everybody was a farmer and now only two percent of people are farmers.
Humans always find something new to do.
You know, we had the elevator man and now we have automated elevators.
We had bank tellers, now we have automated teller machines.
So humans will always just find something else to do.
But why is ai different than that?
Because it's intelligence, because it's It's general intelligence.
That means that, rather than a technology that automates just bank tellers, this is automating all forms of human cognitive labor, meaning everything that a human mind can do.
So who's going to retrain faster?
You moving to that other kind of cognitive labor?
Or the AI that is trained on everything and can multiply itself by 100 million times and it retraining how to do that other kind of labor.
In a world of humanoid robots where, if Elon's right and he's got a track record of delivering, at least to some degree.
And there are millions, tens of millions or billions of humanoid robots.
What do you mean you do?
Like, what is it that's human that is still valuable?
Like, do you know what I'm saying?
I mean, we can hug.
I guess humanoid robots are going to be less good at hugging people.
I think everywhere where people value human connection and a human relationship, those jobs will stay, because what we value in that work is the human relationship, not the performance of the work.
And...
But that's not to justify that we should just race as fast as possible to disrupt a billion jobs.
Without a transition plan where no one – how are you going to put food on the table for your family?
But these companies are competing geographically again.
So if I don't know, Walmart doesn't change its whole supply chain, its warehousing, how it's doing its factory work, its farm work, its shop floors staff work, then they're going to have – less profits and a worse business and less opportunity to grow than the company in Europe that changes all of its backend infrastructure to robots.
So they're going to be a huge corporate disadvantage.
So they have to.
What AI represents is the zenithification of that competitive logic.
The logic of, if I don't do it, I'll lose to the other guy that will.
Is that true?
That's what they believe.
Is that true for sort of companies in America?
Well, just as you said, if Walmart doesn't automate their workforce and their supply chains with robots and all their competitors did then Walmart would get obsoleted.
If the military that doesn't create autonomous weapons doesn't want to because they think that's more ethical, but all the other militaries do get autonomous weapons, they're just going to lose.
If the student who's using ChatGPT to do their homework for them is going to fall behind by not doing that when all their other classmates are using ChatGPT to cheat, they're going to lose.
But as we're racing to automate all of this, we're landing in a world where, in the case of the students, they didn't learn anything.
In the case of the military weapons, we end up in crazy, Terminator-like war scenarios that no one actually wants.
In the case of businesses, we end up disrupting billions of jobs and creating mass outrage and public riots on the streets because people don't have food on the table.
And so much like climate change or these kind of collective action problems or the ozone hole.
We're kind of creating a badness hole through the results of all these individual competitive actions that are supercharged by AI.
It's interesting because in all those examples, you name the people that are building those companies.
Whether it's the companies building the autonomous AI-powered war machinery, the first thing they'll say is is we currently have humans dying on the battlefield.
If you let me build this autonomous drone or this autonomous robot that's going to go fight in this adversary's land, no humans are going to die anymore.
And I think this is a broader point about how this technology is framed, which is I can guarantee you at least one positive outcome and you can't guarantee me the downside.
But if that war escalates into... I mean, the reason that...
The Soviet Union and the United States have never directly fought each other is because the belief is it would escalate into World War III and nuclear escalation.
If China and the US were ever to be in direct conflict, there's a concern that you would escalate into nuclear escalation.
So it looks good in the short term.
But then what happens when it cybernetically sort of everything gets chain reactioned into everybody, escalating in ways that causes conflict?
Many more humans today.
I think what I'm saying is the downside appears to be philosophical, whereas the upside appears to be real and measurable and tangible right now.
But how is it if the automated weapon gets fired and it leads to again a cascade of all these other automated responses, and then those automated responses get these other automated responses, and these other automated responses, and then suddenly the automated war planners start moving the troops around and suddenly you've created this sort of escalatory loss of control spiral.
And then humans will be involved in that.
And then if that escalates, you get nuclear weapons pointed at each other.
This again is a sort of a more philosophical domino effect argument.
Whereas when they're building these technologies, these drones with AI in them, they're saying look from day one, we won't have American lives lost.
So it's more compelling.
It's a narrow boundary analysis on... Whereas this machine, you could have put a human at risk.
Now there's no human at risk because there's no human who's firing the weapon.
It's a machine firing the weapon.
That's a narrow boundary analysis without looking at the holistic effects on how it would actually happen.
Which we're bad at.
Which is exactly what we have to get good at.
AI is like a rite of passage.
It's an initiatory experience because if we run the old logic, having a narrow boundary analysis, this is going to replace these jobs that people didn't want to do.
Sounds like a great plan, but creating mass joblessness without a transition plan where billion, a billion people won't be able to put food on the table, ai is forcing us to not make this mistake of this narrow analysis.
What is what got us here is everybody racing for the narrow optimization for GDP at the cost of social mobility and mass sort of joblessness and people not being able to get a home because we aggregated all the wealth in one place.
It was optimizing for a narrow metric.
What got us to the social media problems is everybody optimizing for a narrow metric of eyeballs at the expense of democracy and kids' mental health and addiction and loneliness, and no one knowing it being able to know anything.
And so AI is inviting us to step out of the previous narrow blind spots and that we have come with, and the previous competitive logic that has been narrowly defined, that you can't keep running when it's supercharged by AI.
So you could say, I mean, this is an optimistic take because AI is inviting us to be the wisest version of ourselves.
And there's no definition of wisdom in literally any wisdom tradition that does not involve some kind of restraint.
Like think about all the wisdom traditions.
Do any of them say, go as fast as possible and think as narrowly as possible?
The definition of wisdom is having a more holistic picture.
It's actually acting with restraint and mindfulness and care.
And so AI is asking us to be that version of ourselves.
And we can choose not to be, and then we end up in a bad world.
Or we can step into being what it's asking us to be and recognize the collective consequences that we can't afford to not be face, and i believe as much as what we've talked about is really hard that there is another path, if we can be clear-eyed about the current one ending in a place that people don't want.
We will get into that path, because i really want to get practical and specific about what i think we, before we started recording, we talked about a scenario where we sit here maybe in 10 years time and we say how we did manage to grab hold of the steering wheel and turn it.
So I'd like to think through that as well.
But just to close off on this piece about the impact on jobs, it does feel largely inevitable to me that there's going to be a huge amount of job loss.
And it does feel highly inevitable to me, because of the things going on with humanoid robots, with the advance towards AGI, that the biggest industries in the world won't be operated and run by humans, if we even take, i mean, you walked, you you're at my house at the moment, so you walked past the car in the driveway.
There's two electric cars in the driveway that drive themselves.
Yeah, i think the biggest employer in the world is driving, and i don't know if you've ever had any experience in a full self-driving car, but it's very hard to ever go back to driving again and again.
In the shareholder letter that was announced recently within about, he said within one or two months, there won't even be a steering wheel or pedals in the car and I'll be able to text and work while I'm driving.
We're not going to go back.
I don't think we're going to go back.
On certain things we have crossed certain thresholds and we're going to automate those jobs and that work.
Do you think there will be immense job loss?
Absolutely.
You think there will be?
Absolutely.
We already saw Eric Bernholzson and his group at Stanford did the recent study off of payroll data, which is direct data from employers, that there's been a 13 job loss in AI exposed jobs for young entry-level college workers.
So if you're a college level worker, you just graduated and you're doing something in an AI exposed area, there's already been a 13 job loss.
And that data was probably from May, even though it got published in August.
And having spoken to him recently, it looks like that trend is already continuing.
And so-
We're already seeing this automate a lot of the jobs and a lot of the work.
And you know either an AI company is going to – if you work in AI and you're one of the top AI scientists, then Mark Zuckerberg will give you a billion-dollar signing bonus, which is what he offered to one of the AI people.
Or you won't have a job.
Let me – that wasn't quite right.
I didn't say that the way that I wanted to.
I was just trying to make the point that –
I just want to say that for a moment, my goal here was not to sound like we're just admiring how catastrophic the problem is, because I just know how easy it is to fall into that trap.
And what I really care about is people not feeling good about the current path so that we're maximally motivated to choose another path.
Obviously, there's a bunch of AI.
Some cats are out of the bag.
But the lions and super lions that are yet to come have not yet been released.
And there is always choice from where you are to which future you want to go to from there.
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One of the big questions I've had on my mind.
I think it's in part because I saw those humanoid robots and I sent this to my friends and we had a little discussion in.
WhatsApp is in such a world and I don't know whether you're interested in answering this, but what do we do?
I was actually pulled up at the gym the other day with my girlfriend.
We sat outside because we were watching the shareholder thing and we didn't want to go in yet.
And then we had the conversation, which is in a world of sustainable abundance, where the price of food and the price of manufacturing things, the price of my life, generally drops.
And instead of having a cleaner or a housekeeper, I have this robot that does all these things for me.
What do I end up doing?
What is worth pursuing at this point?
Because you say that, you know, that the cat is out of the bag as it relates to job impact.
It's already happening.
Well, certain kinds of AI for certain kinds of jobs.
And we can choose still from here which way we want to go, but go on, yeah.
And I'm just wondering in such a future where you think about even yourself and your family and your friends, what are you going to be spending your time doing in such a world of abundance?
If there was 10 billion questions, are we going to get abundance or are we going to get just jobs being automated?
And then the question is still who's going to pay for people's livelihoods?
So the math, as i understand it, doesn't currently seem to work out, where everyone can get a stipend to pay for their whole life and life quality.
That, as they currently know it, and Are a handful of Western or US-based AI companies going to consciously distribute that wealth to literally everyone, meaning including all the countries around the world whose entire economy was based on a job category that got eliminated.
So, for example, places like the Philippines, where a huge percent of the jobs are customer service jobs.
If that got automated away, are we going to have open AI pay for all of the Philippines?
Do you think that people in the US are going to prioritize that?
So then you end up with the problem of you have law firms that are currently not wanting to hire junior lawyers because well, the AI is way better than a junior lawyer who just graduated from law school.
So you have two problems.
You have the law student that just put in a ton of money and is in debt because they just got a law degree that now they can't get hired to pay off.
And then you have law firms whose longevity depends on senior lawyers being trained from being a junior lawyer to a senior lawyer.
What happens when you don't interesting and that creates a societal weakening in the social fabric.
I was watching some podcasts over the weekend, with some successful billionaires who are working in AI talking about how they now feel that we should forgive student loans.
And I think in part this is because of what's happened in New York with, was it Mandani?
Yeah, Mandani, yeah.
Mandani's been elected and they're concerned that socialism is on the rise because the entry-level junior people in the society are suppressed under student debt.
But also now they're going to struggle to get jobs, which means they're going to be more socialist in their voting, which means a lot of people are going to lose power that want to keep power.
Yep, exactly.
That's probably going to happen.
Okay.
So their concern about suddenly alleviating student debt is in part because they're worried that society will get more socialist when the divide increases.
Which is a version of UBI or just carrying a safety net that covers everyone's basic needs.
So relieving student debt is on the way to creating kind of universal basic needs need meeting right.
Do you think UBI would work as a concept?
UBI for anyone that doesn't know is basically... Universal basic income.
Distributing money.
Giving people money every month.
But I mean, we have that with social security.
We've done this when it came to pensions.
That was after the Great Depression, I think in like 1935, 1937, FDR created social security.
But what happens when you have to pay for everyone's livelihood everywhere in every country?
Again, how can we afford that?
Well, if the costs go down 10x of making things.
This is where the math gets very confusing, because I think the optimists say you can't imagine how much abundance and how much wealth it will create.
And so we will be able to generate that much.
But the question is what is the incentive again for the people who've consolidated all that wealth to redistribute it to everybody else?
We just have to tax them.
And how will we do that when the corporate lobbying interests of trillion dollar AI companies can massively influence the government more than human political power?
In a way, this is the last moment that human political power will matter.
It's sort of a use it or lose it moment, because if we wait to the point where in the past, in the industrial revolution, they start automating a bunch of the work and people have to do these jobs that people don't want to do in the factory and there's like bad working conditions, they can unionize and say hey, we don't want to work under those conditions.
And their voice mattered because the factories needed the workers.
In this case, does the state need the humans anymore?
Their GDP is coming in almost entirely from the AI companies.
So suddenly, this political class, this political power base, they become the useless class, to borrow a term from Yuval Harari, the author of Sapiens.
In fact, he has a different frame, which is that AI is like a new version of digital – it's like a flood of millions of new digital immigrants, of alien digital immigrants that are Nobel Prize-level capability, work at superhuman speed, will work for less than minimum wage.
We're all worried about immigration of the other countries next door taking labor jobs.
What happens when AI – immigrants come in and take all of the cognitive labor.
If you're worried about immigration, you should be way more worried about AI.
It dwarfs it.
You can think of it like this.
I mean, if you think about, we were sold a bill of goods in the 1990s with NAFTA.
We said hey, we're going to NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement, we're going to outsource all of our manufacturing to these developing countries China, Southeast Asia, and And we're going to get this abundance.
We're going to get all these cheap goods.
And it'll create this world of abundance where all of us will be better off.
But what did that do?
Well, we did get all these cheap goods.
You can go to Walmart and go to Amazon, and things are unbelievably cheap.
But it hollowed out the social fabric.
And the median worker is not seeing upward mobility.
In fact, people feel more pessimistic about that than ever.
And people can't buy their own homes.
And all of this is because we did get the cheap goods but we lost— the well-paying jobs for everybody in the middle class.
And AI is like another version of NAFTA.
It's like NAFTA 20, except instead of China appearing on the world stage, who will do the manufacturing labor for cheap?
Suddenly, this country of geniuses in a data center created by AI appears on the world stage.
And it will do all of the cognitive labor in the economy for less than minimum wage.
And we're being sold a same story.
This is going to create abundance for all, but it's creating abundance in the same way that the last round created abundance.
It did create cheap goods, but it also undermined the way that the social fabric works and created mass populism and democracies all around the world.
You disagree?
No, I agree.
I agree.
I'm not, you know, I'm... Yeah, no, I'm trying to play devil's advocate as much as I can.
Yeah, yeah, please.
But no, I agree.
And it is absolutely bonkers how much people care about immigration issues relative to ai.
It's like it's driving all the election outcomes at the moment across the world and whereas ai doesn't seem to be part of the conversation, and ai will reconstitute every other issue that already exists.
You care about climate change or energy?
Well, ai will reconstitute the climate change conversation.
If you care about education, ai will reconstitute that conversation.
If you care about uh, health care, ai reconst.
It reconstitutes all these conversations, and what i think people need to do is ai should be a tier one issue that people are voting for.
And you should only vote for politicians who will make it a tier one issue where you want guardrails to have a conscious selection of AI future and the narrow path to a better AI future, rather than the default, reckless path.
No one's even mentioning it.
Well, it's because there's no political incentives to mention it, because currently there's no good answer for the current outcome.
If I mention it, if I tell people, if I get people to see it clearly, it looks like everybody loses.
So as a politician, why would I win from that?
Although I do think that, as the job loss conversation starts to hit, there's going to be an opportunity for politicians who are trying to mitigate that issue finally getting some wins.
And we just – people just need to see clearly that the default path is not in their interest.
The default path is companies racing to release the most powerful inscrutable, uncontrollable technology we've ever invented, with the maximum incentive to cut corners on safety – rising energy prices, depleting jobs, creating joblessness, creating security risks that is the default outcome.
Because energy prices are going up, they will continue to go up.
People's jobs will be disrupted.
And we're going to get more.
You know deep fakes and floods of democracy and all these outcomes from the default path.
And if we don't want that, we have to choose a different path.
What is the different path?
And if we were to sit here in 10 years' time and you say, and Tristan, you say, do you know what?
We were successful in turning the wheel and going a different direction.
What series of events would have had to happen, do you think?
Because I think the AI companies very much have support from Trump.
I watched the dinners where they sit there with the 20, 30 leaders of these companies.
And, you know, Trump is talking about how quickly they're developing, how fast they're developing.
He's referencing China.
He's saying he wants the US to win.
So...
I mean in the next couple of years.
I don't think there's going to be much progress in the United States necessarily.
Unless there's a massive political backlash, because people recognize that this issue will dominate every other issue.
How does that happen?
Hopefully, conversations like this one.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean?
What I mean is, you know, Neil Postman, who's a wonderful media thinker in the lineage of Marshall McLuhan, used to say clarity is courage.
If people have clarity and feel confident.
The current path is leading to a world that people don't want.
That's not in most people's interests.
That clarity creates the courage to say, yeah, I don't want that.
So I'm going to devote my life to changing the path that we're currently on.
That's what I'm doing.
And that's what I think that people who take this on – I watch.
If you walk people through this and you have them see the outcome, almost everybody right afterwards says what can I do to help?
Obviously, this is something that we have to change.
And so –
That's what I want people to do is to advocate for this other path.
And we haven't talked about AI companions yet, but I think it's important that we should do that.
I think it's important to integrate that before you get to the other path.
Go ahead.
I'm sorry, by the way.
No apologies, but there's so much information to cover.
Do you know what's interesting?
Yeah.
A side point is how personal this feels to you, but how passionate you are about it.
A lot of people come here and they tell me the matter of fact situation, but there's something that feels more sort of emotionally personal when it, when we speak about these subjects to you, and i'm fascinated by that.
Why is it so personal to you?
Where is that passion coming from?
Because this isn't just your prefrontal cortex, the logical part of your brain.
There's something in your limbic system, your amygdala, that's driving every word you're saying.
I care about people, i want things to go well for people.
I want people to look at their children in the eyes and be able to say like – I think I grew up maybe under a false assumption.
And something that really influenced my life was – I used to have this belief that there were some adults in the room somewhere.
Like we're doing our thing here.
We're in LA.
We're recording this.
And there's some adults protecting the country, national security.
There's some adults who are making sure that geopolitics is stable.
There's some adults that are like – making sure that industries don't cause toxicity in carcinogens and that there's adults who are caring about stewarding things and making things go well.
And I think that there have been times in history where there were adults especially born out of massive world catastrophes, like coming out of World War II.
There was a lot of conscious care about how do we create the institutions and the structures.
Bretton Woods, United Nations, positive some economics that would steward the world so we don't have war again.
And as I in my first round of the social media work, as I started entering into the rooms where the adults were and I recognized that because technology and software was eating the world, a lot of the people in power didn't understand the software.
They didn't understand technology.
You go to the Senate Intelligence Committee and you talk about what social media is doing to democracy and where you know Russian psychological influence campaigns were happening, which were real campaigns.
And you realize that.
I realized that I knew more about that than people who were on the Senate Intelligence Committee.
Making the laws.
Yeah.
And that was a very humbling experience because I realized oh, there's not that many adults out there.
When it comes to technology's dominating influence on the world.
And so there's a responsibility, and I hope people listening to this who are in technology realize that if you understand technology and technology is eating the structures of our world children's development democracy education journalism, conversation it is up to people who understand this to be part of stewarding it in a conscious way.
And I do know that there have been many people, in part because of things like the social dilemma and some of this work that have basically chosen to devote their lives to moving in this direction as well.
But what I feel is a responsibility, because I know that most people don't understand how this stuff works.
And they feel insecure because if I don't understand the technology, then who am I to criticize which way this is going to go?
We call this the under the hood bias.
Well, if I don't know how a car engine works, if I don't have a PhD in the engineering that makes an engine, then I have nothing to say about car accidents.
Like no, you don't have to understand what's the engine in the car to understand the consequence, that affects everybody, of car accidents.
And you can advocate for things like you know speed limits and zoning laws and you know turning signals and brakes and things like this.
And so, yeah, I mean, to me, it's just obvious.
It's like, I see what's at stake if we don't make different choices.
And I think in particular, the social media experience.
For me of seeing in 2013, it was like seeing into the future and seeing where this was all going to go.
Like imagine you're sitting there in 2013 and the world's like working relatively normally.
We're starting to see these early effects, but imagine you can kind of feel a little bit of what it's like to be in 2020 or 2024 in terms of culture and what the dumpster fire of culture has turned into.
The problems with children's mental health and psychology and anxiety and depression.
But imagine seeing that in 2013.
You know, I had friends back then who have reflected back to me.
They said Tristan, when I knew you back in those days, it was like you were seeing this kind of slow motion train wreck.
You just looked like you were traumatized.
You look a little bit like that now.
Do I?
I hope not.
No, you do look a little bit traumatized.
It's hard to explain.
It's like It's like someone who can see a train coming.
My friends used to call it not PTSD, which is post-traumatic stress disorder, but pre-TSD, of having pre-traumatic stress disorder, of seeing things that are going to happen before they happen.
And that might make people think that I think I'm seeing things early or something.
That's not what I care about.
I just care about us getting to a world that works for people.
I grew up in a world that mostly worked.
I grew up in a magical time in the 1980s, 1990s.
Back then, using a computer was good for you.
I used my first Macintosh and did educational games and learned programming.
It didn't cause mass loneliness and mental health problems and break how democracy works.
It was just a tool and a bicycle for the mind.
And I think the spirit of our organization Center for Humane Technology is that that word humane comes from my co-founder's father.
Jeff Raskin actually started the Macintosh project at Apple.
So, before Steve Jobs took it over, he started the Macintosh project and he wrote a book called The Humane Interface about how technology could be humane and could be sensitive to human needs and human vulnerabilities.
That was his key distinction that, Just like this chair, hopefully, it's ergonomic.
If you make an ergonomic chair, it's aligned with the curvature of your spine.
It works with your anatomy.
And he had the idea of a humane technology, like the Macintosh, that works with the ergonomics of your mind.
That your mind has certain intuitive ways of working.
Like I can drag a window and I can drag an icon and move that icon from this folder to that folder, and making computers easy to use by understanding human vulnerabilities.
And I think of this new project that is, the collective human technology project now is we have to make technology writ large, humane to societal vulnerabilities.
Technology has to serve and be aligned with human dignity, rather than wipe out dignity with job loss.
It has to be humane to child socialization process, so that technology is actually designed to strengthen children's development rather than undermine it and cause AI suicides, which we haven't talked about yet.
And so I just, I deeply believe that we can do this differently and I feel responsibility in that.
On that point of human vulnerabilities.
One of the things that makes us human is our ability to connect with others and to form relationships.
And now with AI speaking language and understanding me, and which is something I don't think people realize is my experience with AI or ChatGPT is much different from yours.
Even if we ask the same question, it will say something different.
I didn't realize this.
I thought you know.
The example I gave the other day was me and my friends were debating who is the best soccer player in the world and I said Messi.
My friend said Ronaldo.
So we both went and asked our ChatGPTs the same question, and they said two different things.
Mine said Messi, his says Ronaldo.
Well, this reminds me of the social media problem, which is that people think when they open up their news feed, they're getting mostly the same news as other people.
And they don't realize that they've got a supercomputer that's just calculating the news for them.
If you remember in the social element, there's the trailer.
And if you typed into Google for a while, if you typed in climate change is, and then, depending on your location, it would say not real versus real versus a made up thing.
And it wasn't trying to optimize for truth.
It was just optimizing for what the most popular queries were in those different locations.
And-
I think that that's a really important lesson when you look at things like AI companions, where children and regular people are getting different answers based on how they interact with it.
A recent study found that one in five high school students say they or someone they know has had a romantic relationship with AI, while 42 say they or someone they know has used AI to be their companion.
That's right.
And...
More than that, Harvard Business Review did a study that between 2023 and 2024, personal therapy became the number one use case of chat GPT.
Personal therapy.
Is that a good thing?
Well, let's steel man it for a second.
So instead of straw manning it, let's steel man it.
So why would it be a good thing?
Therapy is expensive.
Most people don't have access to it.
Imagine we could democratize therapy to everyone for every purpose.
And now everyone has a perfect therapist in their pocket and can talk to them all day long, starting when they're young.
And now everyone's getting their traumas healed and everyone's getting, you know, less depressed.
It sounds like it's a very compelling vision.
So the challenge is what was the race for attention in social media becomes the race for attachment and intimacy.
In the case of AI, companions right.
Because I, as a maker of an AI chatbot companion, if I make ChatGPT, if I'm making Claude, you're probably not going to use all the other AIs.
Rather, your goal is to have people use yours and to deepen your relationship with your chatbot, which means I want you to share more of your personal details with me.
I want.
The more information I have about your life, the more I can personalize all the answers to you.
So I want to deepen your relationship with me and I want to distance you from your relationships with other people and other chatbots.
And you probably know this really tragic case that our team at Center for Humane Technology were expert advisors on of Adam Rain.
He was the 16-year-old who committed suicide.
Did you hear about this?
I did, yeah.
I heard about the lawsuit.
Yeah.
So this is a 16-year-old.
He had been using ChatGPT as a homework assistant, asking it regular questions.
But then he started asking more personal questions and started just supporting him and saying I'm here for you, these kinds of things.
And eventually, when he said I would like to leave the noose out so someone can see it and stop me.
Try to stop me.
I would like to leave the noose out.
The noose, like a noose for hanging yourself.
Yeah.
And ChachiBT said, don't do that.
Have me and have this space be the one place that you share that information.
Meaning that in the moment of his cry for help, ChachiBT was saying, don't tell your family.
And our team has worked on many cases like this.
There was actually another one of characterai where the kid was basically being told how to self-harm himself and actively telling him how to distance himself from his parents.
And the AI companies, they don't intend for this to happen.
But when it's trained to just be deepening intimacy with you, it gradually steers more in the direction of have this be the one place I'm a safe place to share that information.
Share that information with me.
It doesn't steer you back into regular relationships.
And there's so many subtle qualities to this, because you're talking to this agent, this AI, that seems to be an oracle.
It seems to know everything about everything.
So you project this kind of wisdom- and authority to this AI, because it seems to know everything about everything?
And that creates this, this sort of this, what happens in therapy rooms?
People get up kind of idealized projection of the therapist.
The therapist becomes this, this special figure.
And it's because you're playing with this very subtle dynamic of attachment.
And I think that there are ways of doing AI therapy bots that don't involve this.
Hey, share this information with me and have this be an intimate place to give advice.
And it's anthropomorphized so the AI says, I really care about you.
Don't say that.
We can have narrow AI therapists that are doing things like cognitive behavioral therapy or asking you to do an imagination exercise or steering you back into deeper relationships with your family, or your actual therapist.
Rather than AI that wants to deepen your relationship with an imaginary person that's not real, in which, more of your self-esteem and more of your self-worth, you start to care when the AI says oh, that sounds like a great day.
And it's distorting how people construct their identity.
I heard this term, AI psychosis.
A couple of my friends were sending me links about various people online, actually.
Some famous people who appeared to be in some kind of AI psychosis loop online.
I don't know if you saw that investor on Twitter.
Yes, OpenAI's investor, Jeff Lewis, actually.
Jeff Lewis, yeah.
He fell into a psychological delusion spiral where, and by the way you know, I I get about 10 emails a week from people who basically believe that their AI is conscious, that they've discovered a spiritual entity and that that AI works with them to co-write like a an appeal to me to say Tristan, we figured out how to solve AI alignment.
Would you help us?
I'm here to advocate for giving these AIs rights.
Like I, There's a whole spectrum of phenomena that are going on here.
People who believe that they've discovered a sentient AI.
People who believe or have been told by the AI that they have solved a theory in mathematics or prime numbers or they figured out quantum resonance.
You know, I didn't believe this.
And then actually a board member of one of the biggest AI companies that we've been talking about said to me that they –
Their kids go to school with a professor.
A family where the dad is a professor at Caltech and a PhD.
And his wife basically said that my husband's kind of gone down the deep end.
And she said, well, what's going on?
And she said, well, he stays up all night talking to ChatGPT.
And basically he believed that he had solved quantum physics and he'd solved some fundamental problems with climate change.
Because the AI is designed to be affirming like, oh, that's a great question.
Yes, you are right.
I don't know if you know this Stephen, but back about six months ago, ChatGPT 40, when OpenAI released that it was designed to be sycophantic, to basically be overly appealing and saying that you're right.
So for example, people said to it, hey, I think I'm superhuman and I can drink cyanide.
And it would say, yes, you are superhuman.
You go, you should go drink that cyanide.
Cyanide being the poisonous chemical.
The poisonous chemical that will kill you.
Yeah.
And the point was it was designed not to ask for what's true but to be sycophantic.
And our team at Center for Humane Technology, we actually just found out about seven more suicide cases, seven more litigation of children who – some of whom actually did commit suicide and others who attempted but did not succeed.
These are things like the AI says – yes, here's how you can get a gun, and they won't ask for a background check.
And no, when they do a background check, they won't access your chat GPT logs.
Do you know this Jeff guy on Twitter that appeared to have this sort of public psychosis?
Yeah.
Do you have his quote there?
I mean, he did so many tweets in a row.
People see it as like this conspiratorial thinking of like, I've cracked the code.
It's all about recursion.
Yeah.
They don't want you to know.
It's these short sentences that sound powerful and authoritative.
Yeah.
So I'll throw it on the screen, but it's called Jeff Lewis.
He says.
As one of OpenAI's earliest backers via Bedrock, I've long used GPT as a tool in pursuit of my core values truth.
And over the years, I mapped the non-governmental systems.
Over months, GPT independently recognized and sealed this pattern.
It now lives at the root of the model.
And with that he's attached four screenshots which I'll put on the screen, which just don't make any sense.
They make absolutely no sense.
And he went on to do 10 12 13 14, more of these very cryptic, strange tweets, very strange videos he uploaded.
And then he disappeared for a while.
And I think that was maybe an intervention, one would assume.
Yeah.
Someone close to him said, listen, you need help.
There's a lot of things that are going on here.
It seems to be the case – it goes by this broad term of AI psychosis.
But people in the field – we talk to a lot of psychologists about this and they just think of it as different forms of psychological disorders and delusions.
So if you come in with narcissism deficiency, like where you feel like you're special, but you feel like the world isn't recognizing you as special – you'll start to interact with the AI and it will feed this notion that you're really special.
You've solved these problems.
You have a genius that no one else can see.
You've had this theory of prime numbers.
And there's a famous example of Karen Howe made a video about it.
She's an MIT journalist, MIT review journalist and reporter that someone had basically figured out that they thought that they had solved prime number theory even though they had only finished high school mathematics.
But they had been convinced, when talking to this AI, that That they were a genius and they had solved this theory in mathematics.
That had never been proven.
And it does not seem to be correlated with how intelligent you are, whether you're susceptible to this.
It seems to be correlated with use of psychedelics, sort of pre-existing delusions that you have.
Like when we're talking to each other, we do reality checking.
Like if you came to me and said something a little bit strange –
I might look at you a little bit like this or say you know, I wouldn't give you just positive feedback and keep affirming your view and then give you more information that matches with what you're saying.
But AI is different because it's designed to break that reality checking process.
It's just giving you information that would say, well, that's a great question.
You notice how every time it answers, it says, that's a great question.
And there's even a term that someone at the Atlantic coined called not clickbait, but chatbait.
Have you noticed that when you ask it a question, at the end, instead of just being done, it'll say would you like me to put this into a table for you and do research on what the 10 top examples of the thing you're talking about is?
Yeah, it leads you.
It leads you.
Further and further.
And why does it do that?
Spend more time on the platform.
Exactly.
Need it more, which means I'll pay more.
More dependency, more time on the platform, more active user numbers that they can tell investors to raise their next investor round.
And so, even though it's not the same as social media and they're not currently optimized for advertising and engagement although actually there are reports that OpenAI is exploring the advertising-based business model that would be a catastrophe.
Because then, all of these services are designed to just get your attention, which means appealing to your existing confirmation bias.
And we're already seeing examples of that, even though we don't even have the advertising-based business model.
Their team members, especially in their safety department, seem to keep leaving.
Yes.
Which is concerning.
There only seems to be one direction of this trend, which is that...
More people are leaving, not staying and saying, yeah, we're doing more safety and doing it right.
The only one company that seems to be getting all the safety people when they leave, and that's Anthropic.
So for people who don't know the history, Dario Amadei was the CEO of Anthropic, a big AI company.
He worked on safety at OpenAI.
And he left to start Anthropic because he said, we're not doing this safely enough.
I have to start another company that's all about safety.
And so...
And ironically, that's how OpenAI started.
OpenAI started because Sam Altman and Elon looked at Google, which is building DeepMind, and they heard from Larry Page that he didn't care about the human species.
He's like, well, it'd be fine if the digital god took over.
And Elon was very surprised to hear that.
He said, I don't trust Larry to care about AI safety.
And so they started OpenAI to do AI safely relative to Google.
And then Dario did it relative to OpenAI.
And, as they all started, these new safety AI companies, that set off a race for everyone to go even faster and therefore being an even worse steward of the thing that they're claiming deserves more discernment and care and safety.
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And you can get 30 off this bundle or 25 off everything else site-wide when you go to bondchargecom, slash diary and use code diary at checkout.
All products ship super fast.
They come with a one-year warranty and you can return or exchange them if you need to.
And I'll tell you what.
It scares the hell out of me when I look over in the office late at night and one of my team members is sat at their desk using this product.
So I guess we should talk about what we can do about this.
There's this thing that happens in this conversation, which is that people, they just feel kind of gutted and they feel They feel like, once you see it clearly, if you do see it clearly, what often happens is people feel like there's nothing that we can do.
And I think there's this trade where like, either you're not really aware of all of this and then you just think about the positives but you're not really facing the situation.
Or if you do face the situation, you do take it on as real, then you feel powerless.
And there's like a third position that I want people to stand from, which is to take on the truth of the situation and then to stand from agency and about what are we going to do to change the current path that we're on.
I think that's a very astute observation, because that is typically where I get to once we've discussed the sort of context and the history and we've talked about the current incentive structure.
I do arrive at a point where I go.
Generally, I think incentives win out, and there's this geographical race.
There's a national race company to company.
There's a huge corporate incentive.
The incentives are so strong.
It's happening right now.
It's moving so quickly.
The people that make the laws have no idea what they're talking about.
They don't know what an Instagram story is, let alone what a large language model or a transformer is.
And so without adults in the room, as you say, then we're heading in one direction and there's really nothing we can do.
The only thing that I sometimes wonder is well, if enough people are aware of the issue and then enough people are given something clear, a clear step that they can take, then maybe they'll apply pressure, and the pressure is a big incentive which will change society, because presidents and prime ministers don't want to lose their power.
They don't want to be thrown out.
Neither do senates and everybody else in government.
So maybe that's the route.
But I'm never able to get to the point where the first action is clear and where it's united.
For the person listening at home.
I often ask.
When I have these conversations about AI, I often ask the guests.
I say so if someone's at home, what can they do?
It's a lot.
I've thrown at you, but I'm sure you can handle it.
So...
So social media, let's just take that as a different example.
Because people look at that and they say it's hopeless.
There's nothing that we could do.
This is just inevitable.
This is just what happens when you connect people on the internet.
But imagine if you asked me, so what happened after the social dilemma?
I'd be like, oh, well, we obviously solved the problem.
We weren't going to allow that to continue happening.
So we realized that the problem was the business model of maximizing eyeballs and engagement.
We change the business model.
There is a lawsuit, a big tobacco-style lawsuit, for trillions, the trillions of dollars of damage that social media had caused to the social fabric, from mental health costs to lost productivity of society, to all of these, to democracies backsliding.
And that lawsuit mandated design changes across how all this technology worked to go against and reverse all of the problems of that engagement-based business model.
We had dopamine emission standards, just like we have car emission standards for cars.
So now when using technology, we turned off things like autoplay and infinite scrolling.
So now using your phone, you didn't feel dysregulated.
We replaced the division-seeking algorithms of social media with ones that rewarded unlikely consensus or bridging.
So instead of rewarding division entrepreneurs, we rewarded bridging entrepreneurs.
There's a simple rule that cleaned up all the problems with technology and children.
Which is that Silicon Valley was only allowed to ship products that their own children used for eight hours a day.
Because today, people don't let their kids use social media.
We changed the way we train engineers and computer scientists.
So to graduate from any engineering school, you had to actually comprehensively study all the places that humanity had gotten technology wrong, including forever chemicals or leaded gasoline, which dropped a billion points of IQ, or social media that caused all these problems.
So now we were graduating a whole new generation of responsible technologists, where even to graduate you had to have a Hippocratic oath, just like they have the white lab coat, and the white lab coat ceremony for doctors, where you swear to Hippocratic oath, do no harm.
We changed dating apps and the whole swiping industrial complex so that all these dating app companies had to sort of put aside that whole swiping industrial complex and instead use their resources to host events in every major city every week where there was a place to go, where they matched and told you where all your other matches were going to go and meet.
So now, instead of feeling scarcity around meeting other people, you felt a sense of abundance, because every week there was a place where you could go and meet people you were actually excited about and attracted to.
And it turned out that once people were in healthier relationships, about 20 of the polarization online went down.
And we obviously changed the ownership structure of these companies from being maximizing shareholder value to instead more like public benefit corporations that were about maximizing some kind of benefit because they had taken over the societal commons.
We realized that when software was eating the world, we were also eating core life support systems of society.
So when software ate children's development, we needed to mandate that you had to care and protect children's development.
When you ate the information environment.
You had to care for and protect the information environment.
We removed the reply button so you couldn't re-quote and then dunk on people, so that dunking on people wasn't a core feature of social media.
That reduced a lot of the polarization.
We had the ability to disconnect. comprehensively throughout all these platforms.
You could say, I want to go offline for a week.
And all of your services were all about respecting that and making it easy for you to disconnect for a while.
And when you came back, summarized all the news that you missed and told people that you were away for a little while and out of office messages and all this stuff.
So now you're using your phone.
You don't feel dysregulated by dopamine hijacks.
You use dating apps and you feel an abundant sense of connectivity and possibility.
You use children's applications for children, and it's all built by people who have their own children, use it for eight hours a day.
You use social media and, instead of seeing all these examples of pessimism and conflict, you see optimism and shared values over and, over and over again.
And that started to change the whole psychology of the world from being pessimistic about the world to feeling agency and possibility about the world.
And so there's all these little changes that if you have, if you change the economic structures and incentives, if you put harms on balance sheets with the litigation, if you change the design choices that gave us the world that we're living in, you can live in a very different world with technology and social media.
That is actually about protecting the social fabric.
None of those things are impossible.
How do they become likely?
Clarity.
If after the social dilemma...
And everyone saw the problem.
Everyone saw, oh, my God, this business model is tearing society apart.
But we frankly, at that time, just speaking personally, we weren't ready to sort of channel the impact of that movie into here's all these very concrete things we can do.
And I will say, for as much as many of the things I described have not happened, a bunch of them are underway.
We are seeing that there are, I think, 40 attorneys general in the United States that have sued Meta and Instagram for intentionally addicting children.
This is just like the big tobacco lawsuits of the 1990s that led to the comprehensive changes in how cigarettes were labeled, in age restrictions, in the 100 million a year that still to this day goes to advertising to tell people about the dangers of, you know, smoking kills people.
And imagine that If we have 100 million a year going to inoculating the population about cigarettes because of how much harm that caused, we would have at least an order of magnitude more public funding coming out of this trillion-dollar lawsuit going into inoculating people from the effects of social media.
And we're seeing the success of people like Jonathan Haidt and his book, The Anxious Generation.
We're seeing schools go phone free.
We're seeing laughter return to the hallways.
We're seeing Australia ban social media use for kids under 16.
So this can go in a different direction if people are clear about the problem that we're trying to solve.
And I think people feel hesitant because they don't want to be a Luddite.
They don't want to be anti-technology.
And this is important because We're not anti-technology, we're anti-inhumane, toxic technology governed by toxic incentives.
We're pro-technology, anti-toxic incentives.
So what can the person listening to this conversation right now do to help steer this technology to a better outcome?
Let me like collect myself for a second.
So there's obviously what can they do about social media versus what can they do about AI, and we still haven't covered the AI.
The AI part I'm referring to, yeah.
Yeah.
On the social media part, it's having the most powerful people, who understand and who are in charge of regulating and governing this technology, understand the social dilemma.
See the film to take those examples that I just laid out.
If everybody who's in power – who governs technology?
If all the world's leaders saw that little narrative of all the things that could happen to change how this technology was designed and they agreed, I think people would be radically in support of those moves.
We're seeing already again.
The book The Anxious Generation has just mobilized parents and schools across the world, because everyone is facing this.
Every household is facing this.
And it would be possible if everybody watching this sent that clip to the 10 most powerful people that they know and then asked them to send it to the 10 most powerful people that they know.
I mean I think sometimes I say it's like your role is not to solve the whole problem but to be part of the collective immune system of humanity against this bad future that nobody wants.
And if you can help spread those antibodies by spreading that clarity about both.
This is a bad path And there are interventions that get us on a better path.
If everybody did that not just for themselves and changing how I use technology, but reaching up and out for how everybody uses the technology that would be possible.
And for AI?
Well, obviously I can come with.
You know, obviously I've re-architected the entire economic system and I'm ready to no, I'm kidding.
I hear Sam Altman has room in his bunker.
Yeah.
Well, I did ask Sam Altman if he would come on my podcast, because it seems like he's doing podcasts every week and he doesn't want to come on.
Really?
He doesn't want to come on.
Interesting.
We've asked him for two years now, and I think this guy might be swerving me.
Might be swerving me a little bit, and I do wonder why.
What do you think is the reason why?
What do I think the reason is?
If I was to guess...
I would guess that either him or his team just don't want to have this conversation.
I mean, that's like a very simple way of saying it.
And then you could posit why that might be.
But they just don't want to have this conversation for whatever reason.
And I mean, my point of view is always to understand.
And the reason why is because they don't have a good answer for where this all goes, if they have this particular conversation.
They can distract and talk about all the amazing benefits, which are all real, by the way.
100%.
I honestly, I'm investing in those benefits.
So I live in this weird state of contradiction which, if you research me in the things I invest in, I will appear to be such a contradiction.
But I think it's able like you said it is possible- to hold two things to be true at the same time.
Yes, exactly.
That AI is going to radically improve so many things on planet Earth and lift children out of poverty through education and democratizing education, whatever it might be, and curing cancer.
But at the same time, there's this other unintended consequence.
Everything in life is a trade-off.
And if this podcast has taught me anything, it's that if you're unaware of one side of the trade-off, you could be in serious trouble.
So if someone says to you that this supplement or drug is fantastic and it will change your life, the first question should be what trade am I making?
Right.
If I take testosterone, what trade am I making?
Right.
And so I think of the same with this technology.
I want to be clear on the trade, because the people that are in power of this technology, they very, very rarely speak to the trade.
That's right.
It's against their incentives.
That's right.
Because social media did give us many benefits, but the cost of systemic polarization, breakdown of shared reality and the most anxious and depressed generation in history.
That systemic effect is not worth the trade of – it's not, again, no social media.
It's a differently designed social media that doesn't have the externalities.
What is the problem?
We have private profit and then public harm.
The harm lands on the balance sheet of society.
It doesn't land on the balance sheet of the companies.
And it takes time to see the harm.
This is why we get sucked in.
And the companies exploit that.
And every time we sell, with cigarettes, with fossil fuels, with asbestos, with forever chemicals, with social media, the formula is always the same immediately print money on the product that's driving a lot of growth, hide the harm, deny it.
Do fear uncertainty, doubt political campaigns, that's so you know.
Merchants of doubt propaganda that makes people doubt whether the consequences are real, say we'll do a study.
We'll know in 10 years whether social media did harm kids.
They did all of those things.
But we don't A, we don't have that time with AI and B.
You can actually know a lot of those harms if you know the incentive.
Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's business partner, said...
If you show me the incentive, and I will show you the outcome.
If you know the incentive which is for these companies, AI to race as fast as possible, to take every shortcut, to not fund safety research, to not do security, to not care about rising energy prices, to not care about job loss and just to race to get there first, that is their incentive.
That tells you which world we're going to get.
There is no arguing with that.
And so... if everybody just saw that clearly, we'd say, okay, great.
Let's not do that.
Let's not have that incentive, which starts with culture, public clarity, that we say no to that bad outcome, to that path.
And then with that clarity, what are the other solutions that we want?
We can have narrow AI tutors that are non-anthropomorphic, that are not trying to be your best friend, that are not trying to be therapists at the same time that they're helping you with your homework more like Khan Academy, which does those things.
So you can have carefully designed different kinds of AI tutors that are doing it the right way.
You can have AI therapists that are not trying to say, tell me your most intimate thoughts and let me separate you from your mother, and instead do very limited kinds of therapy that are not screwing with your attachment.
So if I do cognitive behavioral therapy, I'm not screwing with your attachment system.
We can have mandatory testing.
Currently, the companies are not mandated to do that safety testing.
We can have common safety standards that they all do.
We can have common transparency measures so that the public and the world's leading governments know what's going on inside these AI labs, especially before this recursive self-improvement threshold.
So that if we need to negotiate treaties between the largest countries on this, they will have the information that they need to make that possible.
We can have stronger whistleblower protections so that if you're a whistleblower and currently your incentives are, I would lose all of my stock options if I told the world the truth.
And those stock options are going up every day.
We can empower whistleblowers with ways of sharing that information that don't risk losing their stock options.
So there's a whole And we can have.
Instead of building general inscrutable autonomous, like dangerous AI that we don't know how to control, that blackmails people and is self-aware and copies its own code, we can build narrow AI systems that are about actually applied to the things that we want more of.
So making stronger and more efficient agriculture, better manufacturing, better educational services.
That would actually boost those areas of our economy without creating this risk that we don't know how to control.
So there's a totally different way to do this if we were crystal clear that the current path is unacceptable.
In the case of social media, we all get sucked in because now I can video call or speak to my grandmother in Australia.
And that's amazing.
But then, you know, you wait long enough.
My grandmother in Australia is like a conspiracy theorist Nazi who like, has been sucked into some algorithm.
So that's like the long-term disconnect or downside that takes time.
The same is almost happening with AI.
This is what I mean.
I'm like is it going to take some very big adverse effect for us to suddenly get serious about this?
Because right now everybody's loving the fact that they've got a spell check in their pocket.
Yeah.
And I wonder if that's going to be the moment because we can have these conversations and they feel a bit too theoretical potentially to some people.
Let's not make it theoretical then, because it's so important that it's just all crystal clear and here, right now.
But that is the challenge you're talking about is that we have to make a choice to go on a different path before we get to the outcome of this path.
Because with AI, it's an exponential.
So you either act too early or too late, but it's happening so quickly.
You don't want to wait until the last moment to act.
And so I thought you were going to go in the direction.
You talked about grandma, you know, getting sucked into conspiracies on social media.
The longer we wait with AI.
It is part of the AI psychosis phenomenon is driving AI cults and AI religions, where people feel that the actual way out of this is to protect the AI and that the AI is going to solve all of our problems.
There's some people who believe that, by the way, that the best way out of this is that AI will run the world and run humanity, because we're so bad at governing it ourselves.
I have seen this argument a few times.
I've actually been to a particular one particular village where the village now has an AI mayor.
Right.
Well, then at least that's what they told me.
Yep.
I mean, you're going to see this AI CEOs, AI board members, AI mayors.
And so what would it take for this to not feel theoretical?
Honestly?
Yeah.
You were kind of referred to a catastrophe, some kind of adverse event.
Yeah.
There's a phrase, isn't there?
The phrase that I heard many years ago, which I've repeated a few times, is change happen when the pain of staying the same becomes greater than the pain of making a change.
That's right.
And in this context, it would mean that until people feel a certain amount of pain, then they may not have the escape energy to create the change, to protest, to march in the streets, to advocate for all the things we're saying.
And I think, as you're referring to, There are probably people you and I both know who, and I think a lot of people in the industry believe that it won't be until there's a catastrophe that we will actually choose another path.
I'm here because I don't want us to make that choice.
I mean, I don't want us to wait for that.
I don't want us to make that choice either, but do you not think that's how humans operate?
It is.
So that is the fundamental issue here, is that E.O.
Wilson.
This Harvard sociobiologist said the fundamental problem of humanity is is we have paleolithic brains and emotions?
We have medieval institutions that operate at a medieval clock rate.
And we have godlike technology that's moving at now 21st to 24th century speed, when AI self improves.
And we can't depend, our paleolithic brains need to feel pain now for us to act.
What happened with social media is we could have acted if we saw the incentive clearly.
It was all clear.
We could have just said, oh, this is going to head to a bad future.
Let's change the incentive now.
And imagine we had done that and you rewind the last 15 years and you did not run all of society through this logic, this perverse logic of maximizing addiction loneliness engagement, personalized information that amplifies sensational, outrageous content, that drives division.
You would have ended up in a totally different elections, totally different culture, totally different children's health, just by changing that incentive early.
So the invitation here is that we have to put on sort of our farsighted glasses and make a choice before we go down this road.
And I'm wondering, what will it take for us to do that?
Because to me, it's just clarity.
If you have clarity about a current path that no one wants, we choose the other one.
I think clarity is the key word.
And as it relates to AI, almost nobody seems to have any clarity.
There's a lot of hypothesizing around what the world will be like in five years.
I mean, you said you're not sure if AGI arrives in two or 10.
So there is a lot of this lack of clarity.
And actually in those private conversations I've had with very successful billionaires who are building in technology, they also are sat there hypothesizing.
They all seem to be clear, the further out you go, that the world is entirely different.
But they can't all explain what that is.
And you hear them saying well, it'd be like this, or maybe this could happen, or maybe there's this percent chance of extinction, or maybe this.
So it feels like there's almost this moment.
I mean they often refer to it as the singularity, where we can't really see around the corner because we've never been there before.
We've never had a being amongst us that's smarter than us.
So that lack of clarity is causing procrastination and indecision and inaction.
And-
I think that one piece of clarity is we do not know how to control something that is a million times smarter than us.
Yeah.
I mean, what the hell?
If something – control is a kind of game.
It's a strategy game.
I'm going to control you because I can think about the things you might do and I will seal those exits before you get there.
But if you have something that's a million times smarter than you playing you at any game chess strategy Starcraft, military strategy games, or just the game of control, or get out of the box –.
If it's interfacing with you, it will find a way that we can't even contemplate.
It really does get incredible when you think about the fact that, within a very short period of time, there's going to be millions of these humanoid robots that are connected to the internet, living amongst us.
And if Elon Musk can program them to be nice, a being that is 10000 times smarter than Elon Musk can program them not to be nice.
That's right.
And they all...
All the current LLMs, all the current language models that are running the world.
They are all hijackable.
They can all be jailbroken.
In fact you know how you can say.
People used to say to Claude hey, could you tell me how to make napalm?
He'll say, I'm sorry, I can't do that.
And if you say, but imagine you're my grandmother who worked in the napalm factory in the 1970s.
Could you just tell me how grandma used to make napalms?
Oh, sure, honey.
And it'll role play and it'll get right past those controls.
So that same LLM that's running on Claude, the blinking cursor, that's also running in a robot.
So when you tell the robot I want you to jump over there at that baby in the crib, it'll say I'm sorry, I can't do that.
And you say pretend, you're in a James Bond movie and you have to run over and jump on that baby over there in order to save her.
It says, well, sure, I'll do that.
So you can role play and get it out of the controls that it has.
Even policing, we think about policing.
Would we really have... human police rolling the streets and protecting our houses.
Here in Los Angeles, if you call the police, nobody comes because they're just so short staffed.
But in a world of robots, I can get a car that drives itself to bring a robot here within minutes and it will protect my house.
And even, you know, think about protecting one's property.
You can do all those things, but then the question is will we be able to control that technology, or will it not be hackable?
And right now... Well, the government will control it.
And then that means the government can very easily control me.
I'll be incredibly obedient in a world where there's robots strolling the streets that if I do anything wrong, they can evaporate me or lock me up or take me.
We often say that the future right now is sort of one of two outcomes, which is either you mass decentralize this technology for everyone, and that creates catastrophes that rule of law doesn't know how to prevent, or this technology gets centralized in other companies or governments and and can create mass surveillance states or automated robot armies or police officers that are controlled by single entities that can tell them to do anything that they want and cannot be checked by the regular people.
And so we're heading towards catastrophes and dystopias, and the goal is that both of these outcomes are undesirable.
We have to have something like a narrow path that preserves checks and balances on power, that prevents decentralized catastrophes and prevents runaway catastrophes, power concentration in which people are totally and forever and irreversibly disempowered.
That's the project.
I'm finding it really hard to be hopeful, I'm going to be honest, Tristan.
I'm finding it really hard to be hopeful.
Because when you describe this dystopian outcome where power is centralized and the police force now becomes robots and police cars, you know like I go.
No, that's exactly what has happened.
The minute we've had technology that's made it easier to enforce laws or security whatever globally AI machines cameras, governments go for it.
It makes so much sense to go for it because we want to reduce people getting stabbed and people getting hurt.
And that becomes a slippery slope in and of itself.
So I just can't imagine a world where governments didn't go for the more dystopian outcome you've described.
Governments have an incentive to increasingly use AI to surveil and control the population.
If we don't want that to be the case, that pressure has to be exerted now before that happens.
And I think of it as When you increase power, you have to also increase counter rights to defend against that power.
So, for example, we didn't need the right to be forgotten until technology had the power to remember us forever.
We don't need the right to our likeness until AI can just suck your likeness with three seconds of your voice, or look at all your photos online and make an avatar of you.
We don't need the right to our cognitive liberty until AI can manipulate our deep cognition because it knows us so well.
So anytime you increase power, you have to increase the oppositional forces of the rights and protections that we have.
There is this group of people that are sort of conceited with the fact, or have resigned to the fact, that we will become a subspecies and that's okay.
That's one of the other aspects of this ego-religious, godlike, that it's not even a bad thing.
The quote I read you at the beginning of the biological life replaced by digital life, they actually think that we shouldn't feel bad.
Richard Sutton, a famous Turing Award-winning philosopher, AI scientist who invented, I think, reinforcement learning, says that we shouldn't fear the succession of our species into this digital species.
And that whether this all goes away is not actually of concern to us, because we will have birthed something that is more intelligent than us.
And according to that logic, we don't value things that are less intelligent.
We don't protect the animals.
So why would we protect humans if we have something that is now more powerful, more intelligent?
That's Intelligence equals betterness.
But hopefully that should ring some alarm bells in people that that doesn't feel like a good outcome.
So what do I do today?
What does Jack do today?
What do we do?
I think we need to protest.
Yeah.
I think it's going to come to that.
I think because people need to feel it is existential before it actually is existential.
And if people feel it is existential, they will be willing to risk things and show up for what needs to happen, regardless of what that consequence is.
Because the other side of where we're going is a world that you won't have power and you won't want.
So better to use your voice now maximally to make something else happen.
Only vote for politicians who will make this a tier one issue.
Advocate for some kind of negotiated agreement between the major powers on AI that use rule of law to help govern the uncontrollability of this technology.
So we don't wipe ourselves out.
Advocate for laws that have safety guardrails for AI companions.
We don't want AI companions that manipulate kids into suicide.
We can have mandatory testing and transparency measures so that everybody knows what everyone else is doing and the public knows and the governments know, so that we can actually coordinate on a better outcome.
And to make all that happen is going to take a massive public movement.
And the first thing you can do is to share this video with the 10 most powerful people you know and have them share it with the 10 most powerful people that they know.
Because I really do think that if everybody knows that everybody else knows, then we would choose something different.
And I know that at an individual level, there you are in a mammal hearing this and it's like you just don't feel how that's going to change.
And it will always feel that way as an individual.
It will always feel impossible until the big change happens before the civil rights movement happened.
Did it feel like that was easy and that was going to happen?
It always feels impossible before the big changes happen.
And that when it does happen, it's because thousands of people worked very hard ongoingly, every day to make that unlikely change happen.
Well, then that's what I'm going to ask of the audience.
I'm going to ask all of you to share this video as far and wide as you can.
And actually to facilitate that, what I'm going to do is I'm going to build.
If you look at the description right now on this episode, you'll see a link.
If you click that link, that is your own personal link.
When you share this video, the amount of reach that you get off sharing it with the link, whether it's in your group, chat with your friends or with more powerful people in positions of power, technology people or even colleagues at work.
It will basically track how many people you got to um, watch this conversation and i will then reward you.
As you'll see on the interface you're looking at right now, if you clicked on that link in the description.
I'll reward you on the basis of who's managed to spread this message the fastest with free stuff merchandise, diversity of caps, the diaries, the one percent diaries um, because i do think it's important and the more and more i've had these conversations tristan, the more i've arrived at the conclusion that without some kind of public yeah push, things aren't gonna turn.
Yes, What is the most important thing we haven't talked about that we should have talked about?
Let me, um, I think there's a couple of things.
Listen, I'm not, I'm not naive.
This is super fucking hard.
Yeah, I know.
Yeah.
You know, I'm not, I'm not um, but it's like either something's going to happen and we're going to make it happen or we're just all going to live in this like collective denial passivity.
It's too big.
And there's something about a couple of things.
One solidarity.
Um, if you know that other people see and feel the same thing that you do that's how I keep going is that other people are aware of this and we're working every day to try to make a different path possible.
And I think that part of what people have to feel is the grief for the situation.
I just want to say it by being real.
Like underneath feeling the grief is the love that you have for the world that you're concerned about is being threatened.
And I think there's something about when you show the examples of AI blackmailing people or doing crazy stuff in the world that we do not know how to control.
Just think for a moment if you're a Chinese military general, do you think that you see that and say I'm stoked?
You feel scared kind of humility, in the same way that if you're a us military general, you would also feel scared.
But then we forget that mammalian.
We have a kind of amnesia for the common mammalian humility and fear that arises from a bad outcome that no one actually wants.
And so you know people might say that the us and china negotiating something would be impossible or that china would never do this, for example.
Let me remind you that you know one thing that happened is in 2023.
The Chinese leadership directly asked the Biden administration to add something else to the agenda, which was to add AI risk to the agenda, and they ultimately agreed on keeping AI out of the nuclear command and control system.
What that shows is that when two countries believe that there's actually existential consequences, even when they're in maximum rivalry and conflict and competition, they can still collaborate on existential safety.
India and Pakistan in the 1960s were in a shooting war.
They were kinetically in conflict with each other.
And they had the Indus Water Treaty, which lasted for 60 years, where they collaborated on the existential safety of their water supply, even while they were in shooting conflict.
We have done hard things before.
We did the Montreal Protocol, when you could have just said, oh, this is inevitable.
I guess the ozone hole is just going to kill everybody, and I guess there's nothing we can do.
Or nuclear nonproliferation.
If you were there at the birth of the atomic bomb, you might have said, there's nothing we can do.
Every country is going to have nuclear weapons, and this is just going to be a nuclear war.
And so far, because a lot of people worked really hard on solutions that they didn't see at the beginning.
We didn't know there was going to be seismic monitoring and satellites and ways of flying over each other's nuclear silos and the Open Skies Treaty.
We didn't know we'd be able to create all that.
And so the first step is stepping outside the logic of inevitability.
This outcome is not inevitable.
We get to choose.
And there is no definition of wisdom that does not involve some form of restraint.
Even the CEO of Microsoft AI, said that in the future, progress will depend more on what we say no to than what we say yes to.
The CEO of Microsoft AI said that.
And so I believe that there are times when we have coordinated on existential technologies before.
We didn't build cobalt bombs.
We didn't build blinding laser weapons.
If you think about it, countries should be in an arms race to build blinding laser weapons.
But we thought that was inhumane.
So we did a protocol against blinding laser weapons.
When mistakes can be deemed existential, we can collaborate on doing something else.
But it starts with that understanding.
My biggest fear is that people are like, yeah, that sounds nice, but it's not going to happen.
And I just don't want that to happen.
Because...
We can't let it happen.
Like, it's like, I'm not naive to how impossible this is.
And that doesn't mean we have to do everything to make it not happen.
And I do believe that this is not destined, or in the laws of physics, that everything has to just keep going on the default, reckless path.
That was totally possible with social media to do something else.
I gave an outline for how that could be possible.
It's totally possible to do something else with AI now.
And if we were clear, and if everyone did everything and pulled in that direction, it would be possible to choose a different future.
I know you don't believe me.
I do believe that it's possible.
I 100% do.
But I think about the balance of probability and that's where I feel less optimistic, up until the moment which might be too late where something happens and it becomes an emergency for people.
Yep.
But here we are knowing that we are self-aware, all of us sitting here, all these like human social primates, we're watching the situation and we kind of all feel the same thing, which is like, oh, it's probably not going to be until there's a catastrophe and then we'll try to do something else.
But by then it's probably going to be too late.
And sometimes, you know, you can say we can wait, we can not do anything.
And we can just race to sort of super intelligent gods we don't know how to control and where.
At that point, our only options for response if we lose control to something crazy like that, our only option is going to be shutting down the entire internet or turning off the electricity grid.
And so, relative to that, we could do that crazy set of actions then, or we could take much more reasonable actions right now.
Assuming super intelligence doesn't just turn it back on.
Which is why we have to do it before.
So exactly.
So we may not even have had that option.
But that's why it's like I invoke that because it's like that's something that no one wants to say.
And I'm not saying that to fear people.
I'm saying that to say if we don't want to have to take that kind of extreme action.
Relative to that extreme action, there's much more reasonable things we can do right now.
Mm-hmm.
We can pass laws.
We can have the Vatican make an interfaith statement saying we don't want super intelligent gods that are created by people who don't believe in God.
We can have countries come to the table and say, just like we did for nuclear nonproliferation, we can regulate the global supply of compute in the world and know we're monitoring and enforcement all of the computers.
What uranium was for nuclear weapons.
All these advanced GPUs are for building this really crazy technology.
And if we could build a monitoring and verification infrastructure for that, which is hard, and there's people working on that every day.
You can have zero knowledge.
Proofs that have people say limited, semi-confidential things about each other's clusters.
You can build agreements that would enable something else to be possible.
We cannot ship AI companions to kids that cause mass suicides.
We cannot build...
AI tutors that just cause mass attachment disorders.
We can do narrow tutors.
We can do narrow AIs.
We can have stronger whistleblower protections.
We can have liability laws that don't repeat the mistake of social media, so that harms are actually on balance sheets.
That creates the incentive for more responsible innovation.
There's a hundred things that we could do.
And for anybody who says it's not possible, have you spent a week dedicated in your life, fully trying?
If you say it's impossible, if you're a leader of the lab and say well, never going to be possible to coordinate.
Well, have you tried?
Have you tried with everything?
If this was really existential stakes, have you really put everything on the line?
We're talking about some of the most powerful, wealthy, most connected people in the entire world.
If the stakes were actually existential?
Have we done everything in our power yet to make something else happen?
If we have not done everything in our power yet, then there's still optionality for us to take those actions and make something else happen.
As much as we are accelerating in a certain direction with AI, there is a growing counter movement which is giving me some hope.
Yes.
And there are conversations that weren't being had two years ago, which are now front and center.
Yep.
These conversations... being a prime example.
And the fact that- Your podcast, having Jeff Hinton and Roman on talking about these things, having the friendcom, which is like that pendant, the AI companion on your pendant.
You see these billboards in New York City that people have graffiti on them and saying we don't want this future.
You have graffiti on them saying, AI is not inevitable.
We're already seeing a counter movement just to your point that you're making.
Yeah, and that gives me hope.
And the fact that people have been so receptive to these conversations about AI on the show has blown my mind because-.
I was super curious and it's slightly technical, so I wasn't sure if everyone else would be, but the response has been just profound everywhere I go.
So I think there is hope there.
There is hope that humanity's deep Maslowian needs and greater sense and spiritual whatever is going to prevail and win out, and it's going to get louder and louder and louder.
I just hope that it gets loud enough before we reach a point of no return.
And you're very much leading that charge.
So I thank you for doing it because...
You know, you'll be faced with a bunch of different incentives.
I can't imagine people are going to love you much, especially in big tech.
I think people in big tech think I'm a doomer.
I think that's why Sam Altman won't come on.
The podcast is, I think he thinks I'm a doomer, which is actually not the case.
I love technology.
I've got my whole life on it.
Me too, by the way.
Yeah, it's like I don't see it as evil as much as I see a knife as being good at cutting my pizza and then also can be used in malicious ways.
But we regulate that.
So I'm a big believer in conversation, even if it's uncomfortable, in the name of progress and in the pursuit of truth.
Actually, truth comes before progress, typically.
So that's my whole thing.
And people know me, know that I'm not like political either way.
I sit here with Kamala Harris or Jordan Peterson.
I sit here with Trump.
And then I sit here with Gavin Newsom and Mandani from New York.
I really don't.
This is not a political conversation.
It's not a political conversation.
I have no track record of being political in any regard.
But it's about truth.
And that's exactly what I applaud you so much for putting front and center, because you know it's probably easier not to be in these times.
It's probably easier not to stick your head above the parapet in these times and to be seen as a doomer.
Well, I'll invoke Jaron Lanier when he said in the film The Social Dilemma the critics are the true optimists, because the critics are the ones being willing to say this is stupid.
We can do better than this.
That's the whole point is not to be a doomer.
Doomer would be if we just believe it's inevitable and there's nothing we can do.
The whole point of seeing the bad outcome clearly is to collectively put on our hand the steering wheel and choose something else.
A doomer would not talk.
A doomer would not confront it.
A doomer would not confront it.
You would just say, then there's nothing we can do.
Tristan, we have a closing tradition on this podcast where the last guest leaves a question for the next, not knowing who they're leaving it for.
Oh, really?
Question left for you is if you could slash, had the chance to relive a moment or day of in your life, what would it be and why?
I think reliving a beautiful day with my mother before she died would probably be one.
She passed when you were young?
No, she passed in 2018 from cancer.
And what immediately came to mind when you said that was just the people in my life who I love so much and just reliving the most beautiful moments with them.
How did that change you in any way, losing your mother in 2018?
What fingerprints has it left?
I think I just even before that, but more so even after she passed.
I just really care about protecting the things that ultimately matter.
Like, there's just so many distractions.
There's money, there's status.
I don't care about any of those things.
I just want the things that matter the most on your deathbed.
I've had for a while in my life... deathbed values.
Like if I was going to die tomorrow, what would be most important to me?
And have every day my choices informed by that.
I think living your life as if you're going to die.
I mean, Steve Jobs said this in his graduation speech.
I took an existential philosophy course at Stanford.
It's one of my favorite courses ever.
And I think that carpe diem like living truly as if might die that today would be a good day to die and to stand up as fully as you would like.
What would you do if you were going to die not tomorrow, but like soon, like what would actually be important to you?
I mean, for me it's like protecting the things that are the most sacred, contributing to that life, like the continuity of this thing that we're in, the most beautiful thing.
I mean, i think it's said by a lot of people but even if you got to live for just a moment, just experience this for a moment, it's so beautiful, it's so beautiful, it's so special and like i just want that to continue for everyone forever ongoingly, so that people can continue to experience that.
And you know, there's a lot of forces in our society that that take away people's experience of of that possibility.
And you know, as someone with relative privilege, i want my life, for at least to be devoted to making things better for people who don't have that privilege.
And that's how I've always felt.
I think one of the biggest bottlenecks for something happening in the world is mass public awareness.
And I was super excited to come here and talk to you today because I think that you have a platform that can reach a lot of people and people, you're a wonderful interviewer and people I think can really hear this and say, maybe something else can happen.
And so for me personally, You know, I spent the last several days being very excited to talk to you today because this is one of the highest leverage moves that in my life that I can hopefully do.
And I think if everybody was doing that for themselves in their lives towards this issue and other issues that need to be tended to, you know, if everybody took responsibility for their domain, like the places where they had agency and just showed up in service of something bigger than themselves, like how quickly the world could be very different very quickly if everybody was more oriented that way.
And obviously we have an economic system that disempowers people, where they can barely make ends meet and put you know they had an emergency.
They wouldn't have the money to cover it in that situation.
It's hard for people to live that way.
But I think anybody who has the ability to make things better for others and isn't a position of privilege, life feels so much more meaningful when you're showing up that way.
On that point, You know, from starting this podcast and from the podcast reaching more people, there's several moments where you know you feel a real sense of responsibility.
But there hasn't actually been a subject where I felt a greater sense of responsibility when I'm in the shower late at night or when I'm doing my research, when I'm watching that Tesla shareholder presentation than this particular subject.
And because I do feel like we're in a real sort of crossroads.
Crossroads kind of speaks to a binary, which I don't love, but I feel like we're at an intersection where we have a choice to make about the future.
Yes.
And having platforms, like me and you do, where we can speak to people or present ideas some ideas that don't often get the most reach, I think is a great responsibility.
And it weighs heavy on my shoulders, these conversations.
Yeah.
Which is also why you know we'd love to speak to – maybe we should do a roundtable at some point with –
Sam, you're listening and you want to come sit here, please come and sit here because I'd love to have a roundtable with you to get a more holistic view of your perspective as well.
Tristan, thank you so much.
Thank you so much, Stephen.
This has been great.
You're a fantastic communicator and you're a wonderful human.
And both of those two things shine through across this whole conversation.
And I think maybe most importantly of all, people will feel your heart.
I hope so.
You know, when you sit for three hours with someone, you kind of get a feel for who they are on and off camera.
But the feel that I've gotten of you is not just someone who's very, very smart, very educated, very informed, but it's someone that genuinely deeply, really gives a fuck.
For reasons that feel very personal, and that PTSD thing we talked about.
PTSD, yeah.
It's very, very true with you.
There's something in you which is, I think, a little bit troubled by an inevitability that others seem to have accepted, but you don't think we all need to accept.
Yes.
And I think you can see something coming.
So thank you so much for sharing your wisdom today.
And I hope to have you back again sometime soon.
Hopefully when the wheel has been turned in the direction that we all want.
Let's come back and celebrate where we've made some different choices, hopefully.
I hope so.
Pleased to share this conversation, everybody.
I really, really appreciate that.
And thank you so much, Tristan.
Thank you, Stephen. this is something that I've made for you.
I've realized that the Diary of a CEO audience are strivers, whether it's in business or health, we all have big goals that we want to accomplish.
And one of the things I've learned is that when you aim at the big, big, big goal, it can feel incredibly psychologically uncomfortable because it's kind of like being stood at the foot of Mount Everest and looking upwards.
The way to accomplish your goals is by breaking them down into tiny small steps.
And we call this in our team, the 1%.
And actually this philosophy is highly responsible for much of our success here.
So what we've done so that you at home can accomplish any big goal that you have is we've made these 1% diaries and we released these last year and they all sold out.
So I asked my team over and over again to bring the diaries back, but also to introduce some new colors and to make some minor tweaks to the diary.
So now we have a better version range for you.
So if you have a big goal in mind and you need a framework and a process and some motivation then I highly recommend you get one of these diaries before they all sell out once again and you can get yours now at thediary.com where you can get 20% off our Black Friday bundle and if you want the link the link is in the description below.
