[Global Energy Shifts, Venezuelan Sanctions, and the AI Infrastructure Race]-[Why will the world use more coal than ever this year?]

The Resurgence of Coal and the Mining Dilemma

Despite the global push for a green transition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports a concerning trend: global coal consumption is set to reach a record 885 billion tonnes in 2025, marking its first increase in 15 years. The United States is a significant contributor to this rise, with consumption expected to grow by 8%, partially supported by current administrative policies. While the IEA anticipates a future decline in demand as cleaner alternatives scale, the transition creates a secondary crisis: the urgent need for raw materials.

Ro Doan, Chief Executive of the International Council on Mining and Metals, highlights that the green transition is fundamentally dependent on “mining more metals.” A central point of contention is whether this can be achieved responsibly. Doan notes that while industry leaders aim to meet demand while “respecting the health of the planet and people,” a significant portion of the sector operates “in the shadows, away from scrutiny.” The lack of a “minimum playing field” remains a primary challenge, as global regulations are frequently “too weak or they're not well enforced.”

Regarding the European Union’s move to loosen permitting rules to accelerate mineral access, Doan argues that this should not be viewed as a trade-off between environmental protection and speed. Instead, he suggests that if projects demonstrate they are “meeting high environmental and social standards,” they should be fast-tracked. He emphasizes that the real issue is not that the “bar gets lowered,” but rather that the existing regulatory “bar that has been set is not being met.” Without effective enforcement against “illegal mining,” even the strictest standards remain ineffective.

Geopolitical Tensions: The Venezuelan Oil Blockade

The global energy landscape is further complicated by U.S. sanctions on Venezuela. President Donald Trump’s order to blockade sanctioned oil tankers aims to curb the Maduro government’s revenue streams. Gideon Long, a BBC reporter, explains that oil has historically been the “absolute bedrock” of the Venezuelan economy, though its influence has waned due to a “decimated” and “dilapidated” infrastructure.

Despite holding the world’s largest oil reserves, Venezuela’s output has dropped to roughly 1% of global supply. Because the country lacks the refining capacity to process its “really heavy crude,” the impact of removing Venezuelan oil from the global market is expected to be minimal. Russ Mould of AJ Bell confirms that oil prices remain relatively subdued, hovering below $60 a barrel, due to a perceived oversupply in the global market. While China, a primary buyer of Venezuelan oil, has criticized the U.S. for “unilateral bullying,” market analysts suggest that China could easily pivot to alternative sources, including Russian supply, to meet its energy needs.

The Strategic AI Arms Race: Amazon vs. NVIDIA

The business sector is currently fixated on the infrastructure powering the artificial intelligence revolution. Reports indicate that Amazon is in early-stage talks to invest $10 billion in OpenAI, a move that would involve supplying the startup with “AI chips and computing power.” This strategy is a direct challenge to NVIDIA, which currently “dominates supply for silicon chips for AI.”

From a financial perspective, Russ Mould notes that while a $10 billion deal is relatively modest compared to Amazon’s $700 billion in annual sales, the move is strategically significant. By promoting its own “trinium silicon chips” and expanding data center capacity, Amazon is positioning itself to capture a larger share of the AI infrastructure market. The competitive intensity is global, evidenced by the recent IPO of the Chinese chipmaker MetaX, whose shares surged upon entering the Shanghai Composite Exchange, underscoring the massive market appetite for AI-enabling hardware.