Speaking of Polymarket, Polymarket took down the Will and Nuclear War breakout this year betting market because there was way too much trading volume happening around.
What's going on in Iran?
Oh, wow.
What is Polymarket?
Uh, you know, he just discovered.
I just discovered x george, 14 years guys 68, i don't know.
I don't know what polymark is.
Uh, do you want to describe it, sean?
I don't even know how to say what it is.
Yeah, it's basically a casino for everything, so you can go bet.
That sounds dangerous.
They call it a prediction market.
It's kind of like the AO vs. mayonnaise situation.
So it's like, oh, sports betting, not legal.
Polymarket betting on a sport event, legal somehow.
And so basically you can go, so you can bet on who's going to become president.
You can bet on who's going to win this game this weekend, but you can also bet on anything like who's going to win or, like you know, will there be a strike.
Will this guy be the president in a month?
And so you can bet on basically any outcome.
And the criticism of prediction markets early on was they become assassination markets?
Because you create this huge incentive to just say will this guy be around?
And if I want money, it ends up becoming a bounty.
It's just becoming a Deadpool.
Yeah, exactly.
So that's always been the criticism.
And it's like, oh, there's plenty of other good things about it.
If you want to know the truth about how likely something to happen.
If you go to the New York Times or any traditional news outlet, the incentive of the writer is to write a juicy headline and then maybe they have their opinion.
But polymarket is basically only people with skin in the game betting on an outcome.
So if you're wrong consistently, you will lose money.
If you're right consistently, you'll have a bigger bankroll on polymarket.
So over time, it becomes the closest thing to like accurate predictions.
Did they get the election right in 24 yep today, and there's a cash payout for this.
Like you're actually gambling.
It's just gambling, but it's gambling with a graph.
It's an exchange, it's very important.
It's gambling, but there's a graph on it uh, which makes it look a lot more like a market.
Yeah yeah, what's your kind of take on it?
Do you think?
How do you think it's going to play out over the next few years?
Unstoppable, like i think it's gonna be.
People love gambling.
People love predicting things.
People need the information.
Uh, i mean, it's growing like crazy right now.
I don't know if you saw there's actually a funny story i think i have it on my sheet if you don't pull it up but there was this man and woman apparently getting divorced.
This might be fake news AI, by the way.
Like the story's almost too good to be true, but they're getting divorced.
The man worked part-time in a warehouse, but suddenly started driving like a BMW.
And the wife was like, can you?
She asked her lawyer, like can you just, do you have a way to check, like how could he afford this car?
And basically he did like a forensic audit and and subpoena, like kind of subpoenaed his digital wallets and they basically found that this guy had made three million dollars over the last year with a pretty much hundred percent hit rate on his polymarket bets And what he had realized and so she was now going to be entitled to half of 3 million.
But the guy fighting it in the courtroom was like, well, this is not an asset.
It's a strategy.
I'm running a strategy that's allowing me to win.
So the judge was like, okay, what's your strategy?
And he basically was like well, I just realized that the Las Vegas sports books would update and the market I was betting on wasn't updating fast enough.
And so I would just bet the new odds.
Even if the thing didn't happen, it was gonna always match the like new odds.
And so he's like, I was just arbitraging that.
And so he had like, they audited his bets and it was just all green basically.
And so there's a lot of people that have found these little arbitrages.
Like people are sending people to, let's say, a sporting event, because they can relay what happened faster than the broadcast and faster than the database updates.
I swear this was happening in Asia with soccer matches.
Yeah.
I swear this was happening there and someone was going over and sending it back.
Yeah, it's like if you ever read Flash Boys, there was like a whole quant trading thing where, if they put your server close to the New York Stock Exchange server, you could get your trade in before the guy who was doing it through a normal server.
And they're like putting fiber through mountains, to like shave off pennies off of every trade, essentially.
Wow.
So do gambling laws apply then universally to Polymarket?
When it came out, it's a gambling affiliate.
So like we can't do it in Georgia.
There's basically a loophole.
So prediction markets are not considered gambling.
They're like commodities contracts.
So it's like betting on the future price of like soybeans.
So they're regulated by the same people who do like the commodities markets.
And so that's how they've been able to get around this.
Everything.
Everything.
World events.
Oh, it's so much smaller than world events.
Like what color is the Gatorade going to be that gets dunked over the head of the coach at the Super Bowl?
Anything.
And we're calling this, it's called polymarket, and it's- Market.
This is like when someone says, what do you do for work?
And they go, I'm a sanitation engineer.
He's a fucking trash guy.
It's just like, this is the same exact- Branding, branding.
Branding.
Every bit of life essentially becomes insider trading if you take it firm enough.
Wow.
During the halftime show, they were like, oh, is he going to play this song?
Well, guess what?
There was like 400 backup dancers.
And so it was very they're getting caught because it's like suddenly this wallet comes out, puts 32 grand on this one obscure market.
And it's like, guess what?
He was a backup dancer.
Did you see the guy who stood outside of the stadium in the days preceding it, timing how long the national national anthem was going to be, and he was like out there with a stopwatch.
He videoed it himself with a starting because they're rehearsing rehearsing rehearsing, and then puts the bed on and wins a fucking shit ton of money because he knew exactly And that was legal because he was outside.
It was public information.
And he's one of those radio telescope listening device things, like tuning in.
And sure enough, we need a close up of just his face during this discussion.
The whole discussion, we take a picture in picture cam of his face.
OK, so each of those explanations.
OK, so polymarket.
Did you guys see the Super Bowl streaker guy?
His YouTube channel?
No.
He put meta Ray-Bans on, right?
He did.
So this guy, this video is incredible.
I don't watch many YouTube videos, but I watched all 30 minutes of this video.
Hang on, how many, he's been training.
No, no, it's so funny though.
So this guy did it before and he's like, I'm going to do it again, 23 days.
And this is basically a training montage of like a bank heist, but it's just streaking at the Superbowl.
Wow.
So he's doing agility drills and he shows pictures of the security cars which they look like event security.
And he's like, you think they can stop me?
As he's doing a shuttle drill on them.
This is brilliant.
This is like he's training for the combine.
Yeah, exactly.
And so he.
And then, if you skip forward, he's like on SeatGeek, looking at the like 3D images of which seat is optimal to jump, like how high is the rail?
How deep is the fall?
And then he has a decoy.
So he has his friend do it with him.
The friend jumps first.
Everybody goes to tackle him, and then he jumps second and gets a free run.
There it is.
This is the run.
That's the friend.
Oh, so.
And then he goes second while they're.
Oh, no way.
The fallen soldier.
And then this guy, you think you can stop me?
Shake and bake.
And then he's like, uh oh.
In the meds, get lost.
This is like Madden, right?
In the Metas is so... He gets taken down by an actual player.
That's unreal.
What's the penalty for something like that?
A ticket because it's a misdemeanor?
No, he goes to jail.
So he goes to jail for the night.
But he knew that because it happened last year.
So he's like, oh, I got to remember to piss before.
I got to eat because I don't want to, you know, like he's like planning for his jail visit.
And at the end he basically respawns like it's GTA, because the footage comes back when he's leaving the jail.
And all of this was to promote his stock tips platform or something.
But he got over a million views on this.
If he could have bet on yourself on Polymarket.
He did, I think.
He did.
He did, yeah.
He knew what the fine was, and then he bet on himself.
Yeah.
And he did it.
Odds of a streaker at the Super Bowl?
He didn't want to confirm it, but they're pretty sure him and his friends bet on this.
He made a crazy bag off this.
But isn't that crazy?
Isn't it just insane what YouTube will?
It's like, show me your incentive.
I'll show you your outcome.
It's like, YouTube is basically like, do the craziest shit.
So then people do exactly the craziest shit.
The fact that he trained for it is unreal.
Look, you know sleep matters, but let's be real most nights you're probably not getting the sort of sleep that's actually restorative.
Eight Sleeps Pod 5 fixes that.
It's a smart cover that you throw over the top of your mattress that actively cools or heats each side of the bed up to 20 degrees.
They've even added a temperature-regulating duvet and pillowcase, so you and your partner can sleep at your preferred temperatures, covered head to toe, like some temperature-controlled mummy.
Plus, it's got upgraded sensors that run health checks when you're asleep, tracking things like abnormal heartbeats and breathing issues and sudden HRV changes.
There's a built-in speaker for white noise.
The autopilot feature learns your sleep patterns, makes real-time adjustments to improve your sleep.
It even detects when you're snoring and lifts your head a few inches to help you breathe better.
That is why Eight Sleep is clinically proven to add up to an hour of quality sleep per night.
And, best of all, they have a 30-day sleep trial so you can buy it and sleep on it for 29 nights.
And if you don't like it, they will just give you your money back, plus they ship internationally.
Right now you can get up to 350 off the Pod 5 by going to the link in the description below or heading to 8sleepcom slash modernwisdom and using the code modernwisdom at checkout.
That's E-I-G-H-T sleep.com slash modernwisdom. and modern wisdom at checkout.
