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This is The Indicator from Planet Money.
I'm Whelan Wong. And I'm Adrian Ma.
And today we are so, hashtag blessed to be joined by Keith Romer from Planet Money.
I'm even wearing my indicator t -shirt today, I'm ready.
Holy moly, I don't even have an indicator t -shirt.
Where did you get that?
Neither do I. Merch is available at npr -slash - planet money slash indicator slash merch or something Good plug.
No, I really don't have one.
The tote bag but not the t -shirt.
Merch at npr dot org.
This is a good question.
I should really know the answer to this.
Okay, well anyway, thank you for coming from PlanetMight to rep Team Indicator.
It's great to have you, Keith.
Nice to be here. It is that time of the week we all know and love, it is Indicators of the Week.
This is our weekly look at the most illuminating numbers from the news, and today we're looking at how China is bulking up for a financial chill, how much we should be saving for a rainy day, and how much the price of used cars is going up.
That's after the break.
ShopNPR .org slash indicator.
OK. I'm surprised you didn't remember that.
I… It rolls off the tongue.
It is indicators of the week, Adrian, what's your indicator?
My indicator this week is 1 .4%.
That is the new lower benchmark interest rate set by China's central bank.
It's part of a whole bundle of economic stimulus measures that the government has announced this week.
1 .4%. That is a lot lower than the benchmark rate here in the U .S., right?
This week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, he said the Fed is going to keep its benchmark interest rate between 4 .25 % and 4 .5%.
That's right. So it's already a lot lower than the U .S. rate.
So why is China cutting interest rates now, you ask?
Or you don't ask, but I will tell you anyway.
I'm curious. So some analysts see this as a tactical move to bolster China's economy before it starts trade talks with the U .S. this weekend.
Because the U .S. has had at least 145 percent tariff on imported Chinese goods, and on top of affecting U .S. businesses and consumers, this also hurts Chinese businesses.
You know, they're taking pain because manufacturers there are having to slow down or pause shipments to the US.
And that's not good for China's economy.
So lowering interest rates is one way China can try and counteract this.
With lower interest rates, that helps encourage banks to lend, and consumers to spend.
And the thinking is, with a more robust economy, China has a little more leverage in its negotiations with the US.
So the idea is that if China is more comfortable, it can hold out at the negotiation table for longer, like, wait for a better deal.
Absolutely, yeah. I think it's also worth noting that President Trump really wants lower interest rates here in the US.
He has been blasting Jerome Powell, telling him to lower rates, and it's, like, Trump kind of wants - Calling him a loser.
Yes, he's called Powell a loser, and just yesterday he called him a fool who doesn't have a clue.
Now, Trump wants lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, which is similar to China's rationale, right?
Absolutely, yeah. And, you know, I think the metaphor that comes to mind for me of what China's doing right now, it reminds me of this – have you ever seen a survival competition show called Alone?
Absolutely. And so, you know, it's where people compete to survive to see who can stay in the wilderness the longest. And all they get to start with is like a tarp and some fishing line.
And they either like kill a musk ox or they eat moss for 3 weeks.
Exactly, yeah. And or, you know, one thing a lot of contestants do before they go into the wild is they put on a lot of weight.
And because they know they'll be roughing it and they could go days on end with very little food.
The extra fat on their bodies actually helps them survive the leaner times.
And in a sense, China has been preparing its people for leaner times for a while.
Like, for years President Xi Jinping has been trying to transition their economy to be less reliant on exports to the U .S. So you can think of this stimulus package this week as part of that larger strategy.
It's the financial cushion that's going to get them through the long winter.
Yeah, like a financial spare tire.
Well speaking of financial cushions, my indicator is $35 ,000.
that is how much an average US household should have in its emergency fund.
That's according to the online reference Investopedia.
It crunched the numbers for six months worth of expenses and it came up with $35 ,000.
Whelan, I actually have that amount of money in cash on my person right now.
You have 17 money belts on you.
Can't be too safe. I got to say 35 grand.
And I mean is even close to reality?
Who has $35 ,000 just like sitting around for a rainy day?
Yeah, your instinct is correct.
This is way more than what the typical household in the US has in its savings and checkings accounts.
So according to Federal Reserve data, the median account balance was around $8 ,000 in 2022.
If you adjust for inflation, that's around $8 ,700 today.
So nowhere near $35 ,000.
Where is the $35 ,000 number coming from?
Yeah, so Investopedia breaks down its methodology like this.
It focuses on four big categories of household expenses.
Medical care, car payments, housing and utilities, and then food.
And it drew in data from sources like the US Census Bureau to calculate expenses for an average household of at least two people.
The most expensive category, if you're wondering, was medical care.
that accounts for almost $12 ,000, car payments add up to almost $11 ,000.
Hmm. So if you don't own a car, you would only need...
$24 ,000 in your emergency fund?
Well, it gets kind of tricky, right?
Because if you don't own a car, maybe that's because you live in a big city with good public transit, and that probably means your rent's gonna be higher than the national average, right?
So Investopedia says, six months of housing and utilities represents around $8 ,700.
If you do the math, I mean, that's not going to last six months if you're paying rent in a city like New York or Chicago.
We are on Segway fire today.
Speaking of how expensive cars can be Waylan what kind of car do you drive?
Oh, I have a Honda Fit.
And how old is your Honda Fit?
It is 13 years old.
Well for your sake, I hope it continues to go strong for at least another year in that you don't have to replace it.
Because As my indicator is 4 .9 percent.
According to Cox Automotive, who puts out this thing called the Mannheim Index that tracks wholesale used car prices, they have gone up 4 .9 percent since this time last year.
I mean, didn't we just go through this a few years ago, like during the pandemic?
Yeah, the pandemic.
It is thankfully not quite pandemic bad out there for used cars right now.
You may remember used car prices went way, way up during the pandemic because there were basically no cars coming into the country and basically no cars being made here in the US because of all the problems with the supply chain for all the parts that went into new cars.
But now instead of COVID, we've got tariffs.
So you think tariffs are making my 13 year old Honda Fit more valuable?
Yes Waylon, that is the glass 4 .9 % more full way to look at it.
Most of that increase, it came in just the last month since president Donald Trump's liberation day tariff announcement.
Isn't this a knock -on effect, though?
The tariffs are not on used cars.
Right. The issue here is demand.
People seem to be anticipating that tariffs are going to make new cars more expensive, which means more people will choose to buy used cars instead, which in turn will make used cars more expensive.
And so people are trying to get ahead of those tariff price effects.
It's like, if we're trying to game out what the effect of tariffs are going to be and how much inflation the tariffs will cause, it's like, is this the start of some new inflation spike that will be as scary as what we saw during the early part of COVID?
Or is it something else?
Keith, you look like you're about to pass out.
No, the answer is who knows, right?
Because, one, who knows where the tariff levels are ultimately going to end up, and two, there's this rush of people right now trying to get their hands on used cars, but that is going to work its way through the system, and things might actually just chill out, the report from Cox Automotive hazards the guests that the used car market might actually slow down the second half of this year.
Well, I'm not selling my Honda Fit.
I'm trying to drive this thing until I can't drive anymore, so can't have it.
No one can have it.
Too fast to Weyland.
This episode was produced by Angel Correras with engineering by Kwesi Lee, was fact -checked by Sara Juarez.
Kinky Canon edits the show and the indicators a production of NPR.
