Hello and welcome to World Today, I am Dinghe in Beijing.
Coming up, China and Brazil agree to defend free trade and multilateralism as top leaders meet here in Beijing.
And we are going to talk to a Sri Lankan scholar regarding what the Belt and Road Initiative has delivered to his country.
But Donald Trump plans to remove all US sanctions against Syria.
In responding to rhetoric regarding the so -called democratic supply chains, Beijing has criticized Taiwan's Lai Qingde for appeasing the United States.
To listen to this episode again or to catch upon our previous episodes, you can download our podcast, by searching worldtoday.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Brazilian counterpart Luis Inácio Lula de Silva have reaffirmed a joint commitment to building a stronger China -Brazil community with a shared future.
During their Tuesday talks here in Beijing, President Xi Jinping caught on China and Brazil to deepen the alignment of their respective development strategies and promote global South's solidarity.
The Chinese leader also called for strengthening cooperation in areas like culture, education, tourism and media.
For his part, President Lula da Silva praised China's consistent support for Latin America.
He has also pledged to deepen strategic cooperation and jointly uphold multilateralism and global fairness.
Beijing and Brasilia elevated their bilateral ties to a China -Brazil community with a shared future last year.
Joining us now on the line is Professor Jia Dao Zong.
Director of the Research Institute of South South Cooperation and Development with Peking University.
Thank you very much for joining us today.
The two leaders have witnessed the signing of some 20 cooperation documents covering a wide range of fields, including technology, agriculture, artificial intelligence, currency swamps, minerals and trade.
According to President Lula, there will be some new investment, new Chinese investment worth about 4 .8 billion U .S. dollars in his country.
So how would you characterize the current China -Brazil economic cooperation?
I would say, I characterize it as being, let's say both pragmatic and future oriented.
in terms of being pragmatic, actually it's often forgotten that Brazil has been a leader in many of the technology areas among what you may call the Global South.
And in agriculture, let's say in technology areas such as food processing and bioethanol, There are a whole range of technologies.
Brazil is a leader.
And actually that's often forgotten.
And another point of the economic cooperation relationship is that Brazil, for example, in aviation or in other areas like, may not be artificial intelligence as we know in terms of measuring by market scale.
So in other words, it's not just a matter of let's say China bringing new technologies to Brazil, but Brazil has a lot to bring to China.
In that sense, it's future -oriented as well, because when you think about the socioeconomic facts or the basis that has been built up in South America, Brazil clearly is the center that would radiate many of the progresses in basic science and in engineering and also in products throughout that region.
So what do you think has prompted the two leaders to, during their talks on Tuesday in Beijing to demonstrate a determination to speak as one against the unilateralism or protectionism?
Brazil's relationship, very much like many others in South America with not just the United States, but also with the formal colonizers of that part of the word, has always been based on, let's say, self -determination or seeking autonomy and that is well known and well celebrated.
actually Brazil, you know, practices its own model, its own version of, let's say, self -reliance in terms of national policy, in terms of foreign policy.
And so, in other words, you have a history of both China and Brazil that pride themselves in having become successful in in terms of fighting against, or at least championing against, the practices of unilateralism or trade protectionism.
And trade protectionism, you know, countries can change their policies.
But these policies should have some trade warning and also once a decision is reached hopefully, then usually, through negotiations, those decisions are not going to be yanked out just because of sudden political change of a figure.
So I think that's what is meant by the fight against protectionism.
Okay, I take your point.
In terms of jointly promoting solidarity and cooperation among what we call Global South countries today, most specifically professor Zhang, what do you think China and Brazil can do together to facilitate development in Latin American region?
One of the facets that often get forgotten is that there are at least two regional development banks in that part of the world.
One is the Inter -American Development Bank, which China I think it was 2009, I do believe, the Inter -American Development Bank.
It took quite some years for China to join, to succeed getting membership, partly because the largest shareholder is the United States.
And the second bank that serves the region is the Caribbean Investment Bank, which China joined in 1999.
So, Brazil and China being members of these banks, and also Brazil and China being members of the new development bank, they can do a lot in terms of playing a role in planning and making loans and executing in the infrastructure projects across the region.
And we have to bear in mind in Latin America, relationships among countries within the region are just as complex, and oftentimes neither China or Brazil can do it alone can be that helpful.
But when China and Brazil start to collaborate more seamlessly in the regional development banks, that's one way of promoting regional development.
And another project which recently had revived new interest is for China and Brazil to make further progress based, certainly based on more solid feasibility studies to connect Brazil and Peru by train.
So that would be a major boost for the region as well.
Especially if we consider in Peru, there is this new Chinese invested port, Chiang Kai port.
So actually last year China and Brazil, you know, proposed their own peace plan for the Ukraine crisis, then on Tuesday, they once again voiced support for an early start to peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
So what do you make of the meaning of this joint statement of support issued on Tuesday at a time when preparation is going on for peace talks to be held in Turkey?
Well, I would think the best China and Brazil can do, or should do, is to continue to champion their versions of a peace plan.
And certainly, at the end of the day, the actual decision -makers, I mean, the actual power of the decision -making, that's in the hands of the two direct foreign parties, one is Russia and the other is Ukraine.
That doesn't hurt to China or Brazil to iterate their peace plan, which basically says, well, the earlier a ceasefire takes place, the better.
but then that notion has not really received help because the other parties, both the two warring parties and especially major members of NATO, they have their different adjectives added to the notion of peace and also by that there are implied conditions for conducting the beginning of peace talks.
But eventually it will come.
By the way, do you think this is a signal that China and Brazil are jointly assuming greater role or greater responsibility in terms of global governance, for example?
Yes. Well, certainly, that can be understood in this way, but you can contribute to global governance in many different ...
so many different venues and by doing different, championing an idea and offering a venue for such discussions as Turkey is doing.
There are different ways of doing it, but since it's a global governance, it does also mean that all the voices that are put forward should receive due consideration rather than saying one voice should be crowding out another.
The final question before we let you go, professor, do you think for Brazil stronger times with China would necessarily mean that it is distancing itself from the United States?
Well, Brazil's relationship with the United States or China's relationship with the United States are multi -layered and they have the old set of dynamics.
Some opinion makers that can draw their conclusions, but I wouldn't think that either Brazil or China would define their relationships with the United States as being a major, let's say preconditioning factor.
Thank you very much for joining us today.
Professor Jia Daozhong from Peking University.
Coming up, we will hear from a Sri Lankan leading scholar on what the Belt and Road Initiative has brought to his country.
You are listening to World Today.
We'll be back! A Sri Lankan scholar has described the Belt and Road Initiative as a stabilizing factor for the global cooperation amid escalating trade tensions.
Dr. Yasirru Ranarajah, founding director of BRI Sri Lanka says the initiative not only supports infrastructure development but also strengthens economic resilience on the part of those parts of the countries.
In a conversation with my colleague Jia Wen, Ranarajah notes that BRI enables smaller countries to pivot towards new markets in light of Washington s unilateral trade practices.
For more, let s take a listen.
Yasiru, thank you so much for joining me today.
What prompted you to create this BRI Sri Lanka and how do you perceive the strategic significance of the initiative in a current global landscape, especially amid rising protectionism?
Yes, thank you very much for having me.
As you know SRI Lanka is one of the first countries to recognize Belt and Road Initiative, and it's one of the most strategic countries in the region.
And throughout all governments, they have identified the importance of cooperating with China.
So during the time I saw there's a lot of backlash towards BRI due to various mainstream media reports about some Bantu report and funding, you know, debt related funding and so on.
So during the time I saw how false these narratives are which made me come together with a few people who have the same thinking in order to form a group called BRISL And through that we formulate very fact -based arguments on all these claims which related to debt traps, Hambantot report and the strategic importance of joining the BRI educated people in Sri Lanka and giving services for Chinese companies and various other organizations.
Second part of your question about the significance of BRI.
So BRI came, I think it's almost more than 10 years at a time when Asia didn't have unified agenda to develop as a trading block.
That was the time BRI came into the global arena.
One way for us to judge the acceptance of it is 2017.
when they held the first BRI forum in Beijing, there were 30 heads of states coming to Beijing officially agreeing with the regional agenda.
Apart from this, there were also 130 organizations present in 2017 for the first BRI forum.
So that is a very important meeting and I think that is one of the things that could highlight how to express in a way that how it's accepted by other countries.
You talk about a lot of the significance of this initiative.
When we zoom into more specific projects, like the Colombo, port city and so on, how have these projects truly contributed to your country's economic development and also changed the people's daily lives?
Yeah, thank you. That is a very important question.
One is, Sri Lanka joined the PRI, I think, officially, in 2014, one of the first countries to join the maritime.
There were several projects within the BRI.
The systems of BRI can be in three phases.
One is funding, are these construction and are these operation.
So if you take some projects in Sri Lanka like the Colombo port, China gave assistance in construction and some areas in investment and some areas in construction and operation as well.
So today the container terminal CICT which is operated by CM port was first constructed by a Chinese company, that was the first time and the Colombo port became a deep terminal.
And today it's one of the most, you know, operational terminals in the region, even trans shipping around 40 % of trans shipments to South Indian markets.
So that helps Indian economy as well in various ways apart from helping Sri Lankan economy.
The port itself had paid over 200 million of royalties to Sri Lankan government, and plus the Chinese investment initially came 10 years ago has already been paid off and now it's making profit when you take what happened with the beer.
Apart from that, the Hampantara port which is cote all over the world is now having a lot of success.
The rural business in the Hampantara port, I think, the rolling roll -off vessels have been transferred over 500 ,000 units of cars to the Sri Lankan port And they have recently, when Xi Jinping and Sri Lanka President, the Sanai committee in Beijing, they agreed upon to build a refinery in the region so that would boost the regional economy, giving energy independence to many regional small countries like Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, you know, even some parts of southern India states as well.
So Hambantar support is very operational now and it has more potential to develop the existing, the industrial zone surrounding the port.
Many companies were interested to come and you know, have their presence in the region.
So most of the projects that came through Sri Lanka came through that three phases of development.
When we recently in the context of the US imposing tariffs on various countries, Sri Lanka is also facing a 44 % tariff.
It could actually hinder the country's economic development, especially since it's still recovering from the financial crisis three years ago, and also the data shows that one third of the population are still in poverty or at risk of falling back into poverty.
So how serious is the situation for Sri Lanka's economy due to U .S. tariffs?
Yeah, the U .S. tariff, firstly it's very inhuman, like it's very unfair that the U .S. attacked these small countries.
I mean I understand if you, you know, fighting with other big superpowers but if you attack small countries like this, it can, you know, soon go into, as you mentioned, status of poverty within a very short time.
But to go towards the core of the question, two things it's important.
One is Sri Lankan administration or the other or the leader should understand the fragility of this this problem and as you know Sri Lanka depends over for 40 % of exports go to the U .S. and the Western markets.
So that should be diversified first. No region or no country should, I believe have over 15 to 10 % of Sri Lankan exports going out so they can diversify to other regions.
Central Asia, we have even gone into Central Asia.
So there's various ways to go to Central Asia, Chinese markets, ASEAN, West Asia and African markets, they have to diversify their exports.
Apart from that, they also should diversify their categories of exports.
We are mainly depending on few categories, which is why it's going to Europe, like merchandising and other products which are going to Europe.
So they have to have more products so that this kind of situation won't affect the economy in the future.
Apart from that, new regions as ASEAN, as I mentioned before, Chinese market and even Indian market should be focused more in order to go.
So, towards the tariff, I don't have an answer, because you see, I don't think it's done with proper thinking.
It's just a political argument in the US.
And, it's been a few months now, they are taking off the tariffs.
So, I believe it's not working for many countries, and I've been very consistent in my opinion about the tariffs.
I believe it might not work for the US, and it's a very short time thinking.
And in China, there's a saying, when your competitor or opponent is doing a mistake, don't disturb them, let them do that.
So that's my take on this situation.
I believe tariff is coming to an end.
Eventually, these countries will find some consensus.
So, in your view, how can cooperation through the BRI help Sri Lanka mitigate the negative impacts of these trade disruptions and maybe build a more resilient economy?
and also for other developing countries, how can they use the BRI to counter the pressure of the rising unilateralism, protectionism?
BRI not only did infrastructure development, it helped these countries to realign their strategic national initiatives.
For example, most of the projects that were supported by the BRI were not proposed by China or this whole BRI Initiative, which was the national strategies of that country.
Those countries were unable to bring these projects into reality because of various other reasons, funding, you go on knowhow, technical knowhow and so on.
Even the CPAC in Pakistan, I believe it was there in their local system before China gave the system.
In Sri Lanka, the Hamban Tata port was discussed in Sri Lankan Parliament in 1970's even.
and any person who knows this field would agree that Sri Lanka should have the dirt boat in the southern tip, because it's very feasible to have it.
So to answer your question, how can these countries integrate to a global network of supply chain or trade routes, that is something that all these countries should identify by themselves.
The African countries should know Africa is a big continent, the regional wise they should understand the needs of entering supply chains to free trade zones to interconnecting regions to highways, you know trail or other connectivity sea or land based.
So this is a good time for these countries to realign their trade routes and supply chains and with the help of other regional countries it could build an alternative model to the existing, you know, global supply chain or the global trade route.
So I believe that's one of the first things that they should do.
We know today over 150 countries and more than 40 international organizations have joined this initiative.
So how do you assess this current role in advancing cooperation with the Global South and promoting sustainable development and also looking ahead, let's say in the future decade, what are your expectations for the BRI, particularly in the face of the global economic fragmentation?
Yeah, BRI has, as you mentioned, there's 150 countries have joined the BRI.
That is a big signal to understand that it's accepted by many countries, the non -interference policy of China and the communications skills probably by the Chinese diplomats and other officials, has been accepted by many countries.
so it has a lot of potential to go forward. I believe now it's, if you take to the next step, as you say, there is many new sectors of BRI to develop it as a global initiative, to think of a security aspect of it, and then the high college development, where you have to see the output of these projects rather than the size of the project.
So these are the things that, multilaterally or bilaterally, each country should work with their partners or regional players or regional countries to integrate as I said to a unified model going forward. So one of the risks that we should look into is the regional instabilities that could happen.
So that is very important to identify because if some distability happens probably in India, Pakistan most of these plans that regional growth Both plans for regional growth will come to an end.
So that is one aspect that we should focus on going forward. Dr. Yashiru Ranaraja, founding director of BLI Sri Lanka, talking with my colleague Xu Ya Wen.
Coming up, Donald Trump, the US president, is planning to remove all American sanctions against Syria.
In responding to rhetoric on the so -called democratic supply chains, Beijing has criticized Taiwan's Lai Jingde for appeasing the United States.
You are listening to World Today, I am Dinghe in Beijing.
To listen to this episode again or to catch up on our previous episode, download our podcast by searching world today.
We will be back after a short break.
Thank you very much. You are listening to World Today, I am Dinh Heng in Beijing.
U .S. inflation is at its lowest level in more than four years, having fallen to 2 .3 % in April.
Economists had earlier predicted that rates would hold steady at 2 .4%, with higher fuel prices and import tariffs.
However, they now warn that much of the impacts of the U .S. President Donald Trump's ten tariff policy is yet to be felt and that median to longer term pressure on the US economy is mounting.
For more on this and the US economy, my colleague Zhao Yang spoke with Dr. Yan Liang, a professor of economics with William Mudd University.
So Yan, let's start with those US inflation figures.
A bit of surprise right?
So what's the market saying?
Well, I think it's just that April is still too early to see the full impact of the trade war, even though now we know just most recently, on Monday, there has been a truce.
So that, I think, allowed the market to have a breath of relief.
But I think the April data simply shows that companies have stopped -up inventory and front -load their imports before the tariff.
And so that I think helped to cushion against the price increase.
So we do see the consumer price index rose only by 2 .3%, which is the slowest annual pace since early 2021.
But if you look at the monthly basis though, I think the price has risen by 0 .2%, which is accelerated from March's 0 .1 % decline month to month.
Also, if you look at the core CPI, it is still at 2 .8 percent, which is pretty much in line with the March's year -over -year increase.
So, I think, like I said, the inventory helped to cushion against the impact of tariffs on the prices.
There are also some other idiosyncratic factors, like ad prices finally fell by nearly 13 percent in April, which helped reduce the food -related cost. And I think that is very welcomed.
As you know, the US has been struggling with aviation flu, with air prices rising, and air shortages.
So that helped, and the gas price also helped.
And that reduced by 0 .1 % in April.
I would also add though, is that sometimes this kind of mute inflation isn't necessarily great news, as far as the consumer sentiment is concerned.
So we're seeing that consumers bracing the potential of rising costs and rising the living expenses, we have seen that individuals cut back on some of the discretionary spending.
For example, some of the travel prices, the air tickets, have seen decline.
So I think that it's one of the reasons also that helps reduce the inflation.
so airfare dropped by 2 .8 % in April, and that is continuous from the March 5 .3 % drop.
So this kind of discretionary spending has been cut back, and so that to some degree it helped with inflation.
Now, even with the tariff tools, the average tariff rate in the U .S. is still relatively higher, and so I think many economists still worry that inflation rate could rise.
the budget lab of the Yale University forecasted that with the current tariff rate, it's still likely to see the inflation rate be pushed up by 1 .4 percentage points than the best baseline by the end of this year.
And there's some other forecaster believe that the inflation rate will go up as high as 3 .5 % by the end of this year, based on the consumer price, the CPE, the personal consumption in the expenditure price index. So, I mean a long story short is that this tariff truths between US and China does help to reduce the inflationary pressure but it does not completely help to really eliminate the kinds of inflation pressure because the current inflation the current tariff rate is still relatively elevated.
And the federal reserve has a lot to think about here.
So, what do you think we're going to see happening to the interest rates?
I think that is really, everyone is watching whether or not this muted inflation in April is going to encourage the Fed, right, to cut interest rates.
And that is also a lot of the political pressure from Trump to the Fed.
But I think, you know, again, the Fed is pretty much data driven.
They have to see both the inflation number, but also the job market numbers, and to decide if the economy is tuning towards one way or the other.
If the market, if the tariffs and all the uncertainties have caused the market to buckle, for investment and job creation, then the Fed may have more incentives to lower the rates.
But if, as I mentioned, the relatively elevated tariff rate and the inflationary pressure would still drive up inflation above the 2 % target, But then I think the Fed would again be more cautious when it comes to lower the rates.
I think now the market pretty much priced in two cuts this year, but they don't expect the cut to be taking place until maybe July.
And some people even believe that the Fed would hold onto the interest rate until December or later.
So I think, again, it really depends on what this inflation and job dynamic is going to out with the tariff dynamics and also other policies that the Trump administration is going to roll out, including tax and some other fiscal bills, as well as some other kinds of policies like immigration and others.
And so all of these, I think, will change facts' decision as they see the new data and about the economy.
You mentioned that after the high -level talks in Geneva over the weekend, China and the United States announced a series of tariff adjustments between the world's two largest economies, so what kind of effect might that have?
Well, I think judging from the broader market, I think this is definitely a very welcomed truth between the US and China.
So what we're seeing is the US drug market rallied yesterday, I think S &P pretty much rose by 2 .5 percent, and the dollar also strengthened over one percent.
And so, the market definitely welcomed a sign, because the US, both the public and also the investors really understand if these previously prohibitively high tariff rate, 145 percent on China, if that ever lasts, that's definitely going to derail the US economy.
We're not just talking about inflation.
We're talking about very severely disrupted, global supply chain and the US's production.
We're talking about empty shelves in these big box retailers and so on and so forth.
So I think the fact the market reacted very positively with this trade truce, I think just indicates that the US does rely on this healthy trade relationship with China.
And so I think that really moved the market.
But that said, I think, you know there's definitely still a lot of uncertainties still in terms of the 90 days truths and what this kind of trade negotiations would take place and what would come out of that kinds of trade negotiations.
Because right now I think the new tariff rate, you know, after all those truths is still as high as 30%.
Right? So that's the two rounds of the fentanyl related tariff and then another 10 % universal tariff.
So even within this 90 -day truce, there are still additional 30 % of the tariff rate on China's exports to the United States.
So that is still relatively high.
So hopefully with this 90 days of discussion, we can see more decline in the tariff rate.
Even though Trump did say the tariff rate could go back up if the 90 days' negotiations don't yield fruitful results.
But then he did say it was not going to be as high as 145%.
But anyway, I think 90 days is a short amount of time for this kind of trade negotiations with very complicated demands from each side.
So it remains to be seen, right, what this truth and what this tariff dynamics are going to play out in the near future.
And some economists say the U .S. economic outlook has brightened and the recession chances fell after the tariff deal.
Chief Economist Ren Sui at Oxford said he has lowered his recession chance this year from 50 % to 35 % for the United States.
How do you view that?
Well, I think definitely this truth has helped to reduce the economic negative impacts on the U .S.'s GDP.
So I think it makes sense to downgrade the probability of the U .S. hitting a recession.
But that said, I think, again, according to the budget lab of the Yale University, they say this basically reduce the impacts on economic loss by 40 percent.
But that said, you know, these tariffs are still, as I mentioned, relatively high.
And if you look at the U .S.' average tariff rate with all these other countries, you know, the estimate is still relatively high between 13%, according to the, I think, Fitch ratings estimate, to 16 .8 % according to the budget lab.
And that is very high compared to what the US used to have before this liberation day.
And this 16 .8 % effective average tariff rate is as high as 1937.
So that means the economy is still going to be negatively affected by this tariff policies right now.
Not to mention, as I just said, that many countries are still going through the 90 days of pause and China as well.
So depending on the trade negotiation results, the tariff could still come tired.
And so I think that just imposes a lot of uncertainty in the economy.
And as you know, in the uncertainty, investors will be hesitant to invest and producers would also be hesitant to arrange their supply chain.
So I think all of these would still weigh on the economy.
So even though, you know, the recession probability is reduced, the US economy is not completely out of the woods.
And so I think there's also a lot of uncertainties about what the other policies that Trump's administration is going to roll out.
So I think, you know, again, it's basically a wait and see game at this point.
Dr. Yan Liang, a professor of economics with Willamette University talking with my colleague Zhou Yang.
Coming up, President Donald Trump plans to remove all existing U .S. sanctions against Syria.
You are listening to World Today, we will be back.
You are back with World Today.
I am Dinghen in Beijing.
US President Donald Trump has announced the plans to lift sanctions on Syria.
Trump says he made this decision after discussing it with Saudi crown prince Muhammad bin Salman and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Damascus has welcomed the news of the sanctions relief, saying it is a new beginning on Syria's path towards reconstruction.
Earlier this year, the European Union and Great Britain lifted parts of their respective sanctions against Syria.
The U .S. president is currently on a four -day tour to the Middle Eastern region.
So joining us now on the line is Dr. Jang Choo Chu, Deputy Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies with Fudan University.
So, what do you think has prompted the US President Donald Trump to make this very decision?
Well, I think Donald Trump's decision to lift the United States sanctions on Syria appears to be driven by a combination of several factors.
So, I think above all his decision to engage with Shara reflects a very pragmatic approach to capitalize on the new Syrian government's openness to Western engagement, which aligns with Trump's transactionless approach. And second, some regional powers have been pushing for Syria's reintegration into the Arab fold.
At the moment, Trump likely sees his plans to lift sanctions on Syria as a way to kind of strengthen ties with his Gulf allies.
And third, with Assad's fall, actually, Syria's ties to Iran and Russia, which used to be key supporters of the former regime, have weakened at the moment.
So Trump's move could be aimed at pulling Syria into the United States' orbit, reducing Iranian influence in the region.
So that also aligns with his administration's hawkish stance on Iran.
So does the lifting of the U .S. sanctions represent a significant win for the Syrian government led by Hamad al -Shara?
Why or why not? Well, I think to some degree, yes, because the United States sanctions in post since the Syrian civil war began have actually crippled Syria's economy by freezing government assess, banning the United States investments and also restricting petroleum imports.
So the removal will ease access to the global financial system, enabling foreign investment, trade and also humanitarian aid, which are all very critical for rebuilding Syria.
Also, I think the lifting of the US sanctions appears to be a symbol that marks a major step toward recognizing the new government's legitimacy, and also it helps strengthen Shara's position domestically.
Yet, it is very important to note that the US has also tied all these sanctions relief to several conditions.
So, it doesn't mean that it's going to just lift all these sanctions 100 % and failure to meet these conditions could strain relations or lead to renewed pressure.
To average people in Syria, when their country is no longer sanctioned by Washington, what kind of actual changes may occur in their daily lives?
From my own observation, in general, people's daily lives will absolutely be affected and at the moment and I think many people can benefit from it.
This is because, as we can see, sanctions have restricted Syria's ability to import a lot of essentials like food, medicine, fuel, etc. So all these removal could lower prices in Syria, also improve some availability of basic goods, easing the cost of living so in that sense some people can benefit from it that is for sure and meanwhile east restrictions on foreign investment in trade is also expected to spur drop creation in sectors such as construction energy or agriculture and so far actually syria has already been suffering from very serious unemployment problem and moreover sanctions cut
syria from the global financial system which weakens the Syrian currency and drives inflation.
So I think reintegration could actually stabilize the currency and also make daily transactions more predictable for citizens.
So we understand Israel has actually escalated its military and territorial advancements in Syria in the wake of the downfall of the former Assad government?
With that in mind, how do you think the Israeli government might view Donald Trump's decision here?
Well indeed, a lot of people were talking about the disagreements between Israel and United States on this issue.
But personally, I think Israel's government is very likely to view Trump's decision to lift U .S. sanctions on Syria with skepticism and concern.
But at the same time, there was also some potential alignment between the two sides interests.
Actually, in fact, Israel sees post -Assad vacuum as an opportunity to weaken Iran's regional presence.
So while Shahra has signaled a willingness to reduce Iranian influence, Israel made doubt his commitment.
And also some Israeli officials view the sanction relief as a risky move that could strengthen Syria without clear guarantees.
But Trump's push for Sharah to join – maybe to normalize relations with Israel for instance might align with its goals.
But I think in general, in the short term, I think Israel is very likely to cooperate with the United States and Israel maintains a military presence around Syria to monitor and deter Syria.
So if the conditions are violated, and not only make Trump re -impose the sanctions, but also Israel may also continue military operations.
So apart from Western sanctions and their possible removals, what kind of other issues do you think also matter to Syria's reconstruction process?
Well, at the moment I think Syria faces a lot of challenges beyond the western sanctions.
And all of these challenges can be very critical to stabilize and rebuild the country.
One of the biggest issue here is sectarian tensions, because right now and so far there are still a lot of fierce tensions between different armed groups of Alawi, Sunnah, and the Kurds.
And even among the SONNA, there are a lot of disagreements, so all these tensions can threaten social cohesion and could destabilize reconstruction efforts.
And I think the second challenge is infrastructure devastation, because actually over a decade of civil war, serious infrastructure has already been destroyed, including various hospitals, schools, power, grids, for instance.
And rebuilding all these things requires massive investment.
And there is another very big difficulty, which is foreign influence and regional rivalries.
We used to say that Syria is like a proxy arena, and at the moment, Syria's reconstruction is complicated by all these competing foreign interests.
And currently various factions in Syria are supported by different extra -regional and regional powers.
So for Shahra, I think now he faces the problem of balancing all these relationship while asserting sovereignty.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Dr. Zhang Juchu, deputy director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Fudan University.
Coming up, responding to rhetoric on the so -called democratic supply chains, Beijing has criticized Taiwan leader Lai Qingde.
You are listening to World Today, stay tuned.
It's a deal, but not a done deal.
The temporary tariff agreement reached between China and the United States has brought a plumber of positivity to a world shrouded in Washington's tariff war?
What immediate impact will the deal have on the course of two -way trade?
Does the agreement have any implications for other countries currently in talks with the US?
How may Beijing respond if Washington backtracks?
What may we expect after the three -month pause expires?
Check out this week's chat lounge, wherever you listen to podcasts and CGTN radio.
You are listening to World Today, I am Ding Heng in Beijing.
China has slammed its Taiwan region leader Lai Qingde for calling for a so -called non -red supply chain for global semiconductors that excludes the Chinese mainland.
A spokesperson for the Chinese State Council Taiwan affairs office criticized Lai Qingde's DPP authorities for aiming to decouple from the mainland.
It is a move to bow to and flatter the United States, warning it is harming the interests of Taiwan.
The spokesperson emphasized that dialogue and consultation remain possible only through the recognition of the 1992 consensus warning that any push for the so -called Taiwan independence is doomed to fail.
So Joining us now on the line is Dr. Liu Guangyu, a Taiwan Studies expert from Chinese Academy of social sciences.
Thank you very much for joining us.
This is Kwang Tse. In this very recent media interview published on Tuesday, lighting accused Chinese mainland of using a free trade system to engage in plagiarism, counter -fading, infringing on intellectual property rights, dumping low -priced goods to the rest of the world, etc. All those crazy acquisitions.
Why do you think he is repeating these rhetorics from Washington at a time when Taiwan itself is faced with pressure from Donald Trump's trade policy?
Well, Lai's remarks are a political maneuver that turns black and white upside down.
Behind it, there is a deformed drive of the island's political ecology and the strategic anxiety of the DPP authorities to rely on the U .S. to seek so -called Taiwan independence.
And this kind of parroting accusation not only violates the basic facts, but also exposes the speculative mentality of alleging this U .S.-China game.
I think it should be noted that the allegations of the so -called threat of intellectual property and dumping and so on, actually they are just the reputation of the U .S.-Western discourse trap.
We, we see from the World Intellectual Property Organization data which show that the Chinese international patent applications for four years, they ran to first in the world, and there's also in the semiconductor field, the Chinese patent grants account for like one third of the world's total.
So the use of plagiarism is actually to stigmatize the Chinese mainland.
in essence, is the user of the US, the so -called science and technology to coupling with China, the sort of discourse.
So, this is in order to cooperate with the US and West to create excuses for the lightning, this policy in this interview that he said, he's trying to contain Chinese mainland and trying to so -called create a way for him to rationalize and justified his policy by constructing so -called non - vis supply chain to Japan, because before that, he needed to emphasize on those false concepts to establish a setting in which the Chinese mainland is unjust and also a disruptor of the current established trade order.
So that is his logic, I think.
But we can see from the recent Sino -U .S. economic trade negotiations which starkly revealed that the US is not China, is the US and China is the primary destabilizing force of the global economic order.
Conversely, China is now increasingly seen as the driving force, as the stabilizer, and also act as a compass to globalization.
Even some country called China is now the last hope.
So the most ironic twist, I think, lies in Japan's attempt to follow China's tougher stance towards the U .S. in recent street talks to the Japanese public.
Currently they are now in trouble with the U .S. in agriculture imports and had tariffs on automobile exports.
So I think they will be very they will see lighting those narratives very ridiculous to see America as righteous and see China as sinister.
I think they will they will love at these sort of narratives.
And yeah to notify this this interview was conducted with a Japanese media.
So Lai is nowadays talking about hoping to using Taiwan's advantages in production and manufacturing for example to connect with these so -called democracies or democratic societies and establish a global semiconductor supply chain that does not include that does not include the Chinese mainland.
Is that realistic or achievable goal in your opinion?
Of course not, because first we know that, like you just said, Lai is posting this interview in the Japanese media, so I think Lai is shouting that more than just US or otherwise he will come directly to the US media to speak.
So obviously he's taking other countries such as Japan as an important bargain or target for pulling or cooperating.
So, at a time when U .S. trade war with China has returned in defeat, and China and U .S. are temporarily shaking hands in truth.
So, many people on the island include, also including Americans, they believe that Trump would not provide so -called security grantees or economic grantees to deep people authority.
So, instead they advocate that cross -relations should be eased and brought closer.
So, I think that's why Lajcie and I jumped out again at this time right now, backing the trend of expressing his strategic choice to Chinese millen and to impose these so -called die -hard posters.
On the other hand, Laixin has been always talking about that Taiwan is willing to act as an economic and trade and technology bargain or a front line for the U .S. to contain China, to participate in the formation of so -called non -right supply chain.
And this time again, in addition to US side of the reassurance for the reassurance to the US, they also, he's also trying to tell the whole west, like Japan, like the Europe, like Holland, for example, to find more anti -China, anti -China partners to strengthen this so called security link in the name of democracy trying to exclude Chinese mainland in the global semiconductor industry trade.
But Laijin, I think, his statements in Japan are not warmly received, like what I said, the Japanese will see very differently from Laijin's stance.
They are very extremely sophisticated Japanese political and academic circles, and they are now waiting to be used as a gun, especially a gun of Taiwan.
Your points well taken, thank you very much for joining us, Dr. Liu Kuo -ling.
Yu, a Taiwan Studies expert, from joining us from Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
I am Dinghe in Beijing.
Thank you for listening, bye for now.
