Everybody wants you to believe that the world around you is kind, nice, docile.
Everybody's got your back.
The truth of the matter is, it's not.
You are at war with those around you in most things in life if you want to win.
You have competitors who want to kill you.
You have competitors who want your mate instead of you.
The hard truth about the world today is we're still humans that haven't evolved all the way from apes.
We are trying to pretend like society is easy, like there is no undercurrent, like everybody wants to be your friend.
And the truth of the matter is, that's not true at all.
And so today I want to talk to you about what it actually takes to win the things that nobody will tell you because it's politically incorrect to say them today.
But you don't come to this channel for me to tell you the things to make you feel good.
You come to this channel to have the life that you actually want.
Let's get into it because 2026 is going to be either a bitch or your bitch.
The truth of the matter is to win, you have to suffer.
There is no other way around it.
It's going to be harder than you think.
It's going to take longer than you think.
You will lose friends, but you will also gain them in the end.
And it will only be worth it because you kept going.
There's a famous entrepreneur by the name of Ben Horowitz and he wrote a book called The Hard Thing About Hard Things, where he says the most perfect line about entrepreneurship and leadership.
He said, your job as a leader is mostly just getting all the way to the truth.
And this video today isn't meant to be motivation.
It's meant to tell you the thing that too many people on the internet will not tell you.
And there's really four things.
Four hour work weeks, they don't fucking work.
Everybody is trying harder than you think they are.
There is more competition than you want.
And most people do not communicate honestly.
So I want to talk first about the people and the communication, because we have to live with the reality that the world is not always gentle and easy like that.
We have to be what Robert Greene, who was on this podcast amazing episode if you haven't listened to that one that you really have to be what he calls a strategic warrior, someone who deeply understands human psychology, who realizes not all of those who are close to you should be close to you and who plays the game to win.
So most psychologists will say that to be successful in life you have to have difficult conversations, right?
We've all heard that.
You have to have conflict.
I want you armed for that conflict, with the six types of people that you will engage with as a leader.
And there is this exact type of person, whether you lead your family, your friends, your community, a business.
And I want you to notice these types of people when you see them, because you will win less if you do not.
The first one is what I'll call the reactive responder.
So this is a person who snaps quickly, who's always telling you how overwhelmed they are who, when asked how they are, replies I'm busy.
Who looks a little frazzled and frantic.
You can almost always tell them even by their physiognomy, which is how they look.
They kind of give off a little bit of the energy that says, oh, that wasn't me.
Somebody else did it.
Ah, it wasn't my fault.
You know, a little frantic like this, right?
The second is the emotional empath.
This is a person who says they feel too much.
Everyone else doesn't feel as much as they do.
You know, they cry in inappropriate moments.
They do not fully understand what's going on in their own body.
So they project it onto everybody else.
So oftentimes you feel scared to bring something up with these people because you know they're going to be emotional when they respond.
And so you've got to act like the adult.
Then we've got the pleasing pushover.
This person wants everybody to like them a class puppy dog.
They're always excited about what's happening excited good excited bad, trying to figure out what to do next.
I think about the guy from the office space with the red stapler you know milton who, just like, wants other people to like him.
This person often called the doormat, because they do get walked over and, unless they change their ways, can often get pushed around.
Then we've got the aggressive attacker.
This person wins more often in the short term because they're super aggressive, they say everything they're thinking.
They push people around kind of a bully right, we've all met this person and because society has gotten more polite.
The truth though, is they will not get away with it forever long term.
This type of person implodes, they're seen through and people will leave them.
You'll notice them, by the way.
They always speak the loudest in meetings, you know, interrupt other people, use aggressive body language, postures to push people around, get too close to you.
Then we got the constant whiner, And this is a person who is always the victim.
Everything is somebody else's fault.
Someone is always wrong.
Something is always wrong.
When you ask how they're doing, they tell you about all the things that aren't going so great, you know, or they'll give you a long like oh, it's fine.
Now this person won't succeed big in life because nobody likes to be around whiners and positive people statistically make more money.
Lastly, the strategic leader.
This is the rational fighter.
They project calm when everything around them is chaos.
They downregulate others.
They hold firm when they need to.
And this is what you want to be if you want to succeed in life.
I'm sorry to say this, but don't listen to anybody else who says, oh, you can cry if you want to.
Oh, you can just say your truth out loud.
Oh, it's fine.
No, no, no, no.
Those people will forever rent apartments and at most get to middle management.
They will not have the happiest of marriages.
And this is a cold hard ugly, brutal truth that if you want to be a real leader, you have to look other people in the face calmly in a time of chaos, completely unemotionally and, when they're upset, still feel like the ship captain in the middle of the storm, like you are going to get them to the destination that they need to go to.
This is what you need to be if you want to win.
Half the job of winning is communicating intelligently, is having conversations nobody else is willing to have and having them like they are an easy day at the beach.
Because most people will not hold the line.
Most people will let their emotions run them.
Most people will show you their stripes.
Most people never do the difficult things that need to be done in order to have the life that they want to have.
But that is not going to be you.
What's fascinating is, as you become the strategic leader, you'll start to notice which of these avatars are around you.
And you'll figure out, like, I know how this person's gonna react.
I know how they're gonna be when they sit at the table.
I know what their next reaction is.
And you'll be able to tell by somebody's reaction exactly what cards they actually have.
I had one yesterday.
A guy came in all upset.
Oh, I can't believe you're doing business with this guy.
He lied to me.
He cheated from me.
How could you do this?
He was so overly aggravated, I realized, oh, what does Macbeth say?
Thou doth protest too much.
What does that typically mean?
That that guy might be doing a little lying, cheating, and stealing.
And so most people will never pause to see the people around them in these difficult conversations.
But that is not going to be you.
The second thing I want us to bring into 2026 is this.
Everybody is trying harder than you think.
Like you will never succeed.
Just because you want to, just because you manifest it, just because you think you deserve it, just because you sit and flow.
All of that is total and complete bullshit.
How do I know?
Because I know thousands of the most successful people in the world and nobody, not a single one of them, have said they achieved a through flow state.
That is like some craziness on the internet that somebody is trying to tell you while they're actually working way harder than you can ever imagine.
They're like the duck on top of the water, paddling like a motherfucker, trying to get you to think that they just glide with the wind.
Do not listen to them.
Do not listen to the people that post their fancy cars, that show their beach photos every day, that say like oh, eating a cheeseburger, but with a six pack.
You're like, no, you're not.
You're not doing that.
They're working really hard.
They're not eating that cheeseburger.
And so everybody is trying harder than you think.
And there's actually science behind this.
So this is called the effort heuristic.
So we assume others put in less effort than they actually did.
This is from the University of Illinois.
And the finding is we all assume that most other people put in less effort than they actually did, that it came easier for them than it actually did.
But the truth is often quite the opposite.
So like, for instance, I got to meet this famous person who I won't name because you know I'm a lady.
But you know, I didn't realize originally, when I met this famous person, that they wanted to compete with me.
Like, we became friends.
I thought we were buddies.
And they talked about, oh, everything's so amazing.
We're growing so much.
I've had all this success.
And then I started hearing some snickerings around.
And it turns out behind the scenes.
You know lawsuits and fraud and things not going well and revenue numbers not real.
And so don't believe everybody's highlight reel, because there's also something called the iceberg illusion, which is 90 of the effort out there.
You guys, it's invisible.
Harvard and Berkeley did this study on what they call effort concealment, which is fascinating.
Humans only see the visible 10% of someone's work.
The remaining 90 is usually private, unshared or hidden, which creates the illusion of this tiny little iceberg when in reality there's all this down below it.
And this applies to everything, success, burnout, performance.
So everybody else's highlight reel is making you think you're behind.
But the truth is, you just aren't seeing their mess.
Everybody's got one.
You're competing against the top 1% you follow online, not the actual population, by the way.
So it looks like everyone else is doing more than you.
In reality, you're comparing yourself to outliers. listen, this is so true and just go try it.
For instance, I saw this thing on the internet where a guy talked about how he used AI to do this crazy task.
And it was so easy and AI did it 100 for him and he made money using a robot.
Then I had my entire seven person YouTube team and I go try to recreate it.
What do you think happened?
We got like 20 bucks and a toothpick at the end of this thing.
The AI didn't work.
We're like shaking hands.
We're selling stuff hand to hand.
We're going and picking it up.
It's costing us more money than it's making us.
It's just not as easy as people make it look.
And so I just don't want you to think that you are rare because you're not achieving.
You are actually like everybody else.
There's something called the survivorship bias, which is you compare yourself to the winners, not the strugglers, right?
So this is a famous study by Kahneman, which he has lots of econ studies.
But the juxt of this one is that humans overlook all the people who quit failed, burned out and basically had worse outcomes.
And for some reason we have this bias, probably because it's what keeps us going, where you only see the ones that make it.
So I promise you everyone is working harder than you think they are, even if they make it look easy maybe, especially then.
If you think there's a single podcaster out there that's growing like crazy while not obsessing on it, I've got some fucking news for you.
The news is that ain't true.
This is hard, and so there's more and better competition than you want.
There's a beautiful truth even though there's more competition and even though everybody's trying, most people won't work as hard as is necessary to win.
There are also, on the flip side, more people who are playing the game than you could ever imagine.
Like everybody will tell you in the beginning oh, you can go do it.
And then what happens?
Well, you ask them to buy your product, and what do they do?
Not buy your product.
This is called optimism bias.
Like you think you'll win more easily than the data suggests.
And so University College of London had this study showing that humans systematically underestimate the risks, overestimate their likelihood of success, especially in competitive domains like business athletics.
Founders usually think their idea is special or different.
Or have you ever heard anybody say like, when you're like, who else does this?
They're like, we don't have any competition.
The science says you're delusional by design.
This is why, when founders come to me with ideas, I almost never look at the idea in our investment business first.
We invested in, I don't know, 33 companies in one fund, 100 plus companies in our holding company.
And I never vet only the idea.
I vet the founder because the only real differentiator is you and how much pain you're willing to take.
So, you know, when we've looked at 1200 deals a year, I know this to be true.
The real screen happens on the you.
So you have to be a little delusional, otherwise you won't make it.
But you've also got to know what's happening out there.
You've got to know about something called the overconfidence effect, that people think they're above average, which is statistically impossible.
Not everybody can be above average, right?
Like this is just math.
I'm no mathematician, but I think that's how this works.
And this is fascinating.
There's a study from this guy by the name of Svensson in the 80s that it's been expanded and replicated dozens of times.
The finding is 80 percent of people think they are above average drivers.
80%, 68% think they're above average entrepreneurs.
Mathematical reality, only 50% can be.
So your competitors think they're better than you and some actually are.
And even crazier.
We gravitate to the same ideas, which is why, when I look at investments and we help members of the boardroom scale their businesses, most of them are trying to tackle the exact same problems in the exact same ways.
We have to work really hard to teach our 1% entrepreneurs how to get beyond that.
And there's like a famous Harvard Business School study called the Startup Gold Rush.
And basically it says that people gravitate towards the same hard problems.
So founders will do what's called clustering around high status ideas.
So you guys could guess what that would be now.
Two letters, AI, right?
Fintech, consumer apps.
And what does this do?
It creates this like hyper competition, even when they, the founders, believe their idea is unique.
And so this means, if you're in a sexy space, you're competing with hundreds thousands of smart people.
If you're in a boring space, you're competing with less because boring is often not as competitive.
Let's go to the math.
So this is where the illusion sort of shatters.
If you look at how many startups exist right now, let's look at all across the globe.
So all across the world, 305 million startups are made every year.
100 million new businesses open annually and there are currently 30 million active startups competing globally at any moment.
That's why the nobody else is doing this is almost impossible in the us, if you're like.
Well, you know, not in the world.
What about just the us?
That's 55 million new businesses that were created in the us in the last year alone.
10 to 15 percent classifies high growth.
That's 550 000 startups a year entering really competitive markets.
And the number of new businesses how much has it grown over the years?
Well, since 19, 2019, it's doubled.
So, either way, you have more competition than you want to admit, and some of them are better than you.
And so, when you realize this, it is okay to fail, it is okay to struggle.
You're going to continue to win if you don't give up.
But let's be reasonable about what the numbers actually are.
If you wanna have the life that you want, you've gotta look the numbers hard in the face and decide anyway.
That's why I want to come to this next one, which is four-hour work weeks do not work.
Now, I've become friendly with Tim Ferriss.
I think he's the man.
The book changed my life in many, many ways.
He's a stud, super brilliant.
And I think I'm very lucky to get to talk to him.
That said, I don't think he actually believes that four-hour work weeks are real.
It was his theory and a framework and a formula for sort of escaping corporate monotony and not doing dumb work and leveraging your intelligence.
But here's what the math says.
85 to 90% of businesses require active involvement.
And startup and small business data sets show 85 of early stage companies require the founder to be daily involved in operations.
Even the US Small Business Administration and businesses under 2 million in revenue.
You wanna know how much the founders work.
On average, 52 hours per week.
That's 13X more than four hour work weeks.
And if you go, okay, what about this thing called passive income that everybody is talking about?
Well, according to the Federal Reserve Survey, Only 11% of Americans earn any passive income at all.
And of those, 75% comes from real estate requiring some management.
So truly passive monthly income represents less than 1% of all income earned in the US.
Translation the passive income ecosystem that lots of people online talk about.
It applies like what 05 of the population for probably some small percentage of their total income.
I'm not saying you can't do it.
We have lots of different revenue streams.
And in the boardroom, we teach people about getting lots of revenue streams in their business.
But with zero work ever, I don't know.
I haven't met it yet.
And like, if we want to go really deep into this one, like most of these, like automated businesses, you want to know what the failure rate is for them.
Ninety seven percent.
Like the autopilot online businesses like e-commerce dropshipping, affiliate marketing and many digital products, the data Most of these stores never actually make it.
And what's fascinating about small businesses that we've realized over the last five years is most small businesses fail.
90% of them fail.
And the reason why they fail is two reasons.
They don't have an operating system and they don't have advisors telling them where all the potholes lay.
And so what we realized after talking to 14000 entrepreneurs is if we could give founders an operating system, plus advisors who had already been there, done that, we could increase the success rate of startups across this country.
And so we did that in something called the contrarian boardroom, where we teach a couple hundred entrepreneurs per year who are on a path to do at least seven figures or more in revenue how to grow their businesses profitably consistently sustainably, with an operating system and advisors.
If that sounds like you go to the link below or go to contrarientthinkingco and apply to the boardroom.
We are here to help entrepreneurship suck less and make more money.
Now, what's fascinating about the data that I was talking about?
Shopify says 95 of stores.
They never make a single sale.
Amazon fulfilled by Amazon.
So Amazon FBA 90 fail rate or they plateau at.
Let me tell you how much 100 bucks a month in profit.
So I think the truth of the matter is we overestimate how much money people are making.
We do social comparison theory where we compare our worst to other people's best.
You know, the University College of London says the brain defaults to upward comparison, meaning you compare yourself to people doing better.
You ignore the tens of millions or hundreds of millions of people doing worse.
And like you and I, we use the wrong measuring stick.
So I want you to remember this.
Don't compare other people's highlight reel to your reality.
And when it makes you think you're behind, remember you're actually not.
Keep going because the only way you fail is if you quit.
But I promise you, some days you're going to want to.
And 2026 is going to be your year if you do not.
