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Hello.
You've heard of panda diplomacy, maybe ping pong diplomacy, but on this special edition of the Global News Podcast, we're going to be talking about tiara diplomacy.
Britain is literally rolling out the red carpet for a charm offensive of royal proportions, as promised by Sir Keir Starmer when he met the US President, Donald Trump, and invited him for an unprecedented second state visit.
But...
Can King Charles charm his often unpredictable houseguest when he comes to Windsor Castle?
And what does this all mean for US-UK relations?
Other countries will be watching, and we will too.
I'm Celia Hatton, and this is the Global News Podcast.
Well, with their analysis and expertise, I'm joined by my colleagues from the newsroom.
We have Rob Watson and John Sudworth are joining us from down the line.
And here with me in the studio, keeping me company, are Frank Gardner and Charlotte Gallagher.
So welcome to you all.
We're going to start with a little round robin question.
I want you all to introduce yourselves and then I want you to give me the answer to this.
What's the one part of your trip?
What's one moment or one element that you'll be watching out for?
That will tell you how this trip is going.
Rob Watson, why don't we start with you?
What are you looking out for?
So I'm Rob Watson, as you say, and it's great to be with everyone.
And I am currently one of the BBC's political correspondents, something I've been doing, my goodness, since 2009.
And I did it about 30-odd years ago as well.
And in the meantime, I've been a BBC correspondent in New York and in Washington.
So this story plays to both sides of my experience.
Anyway, what am I going to be looking for?
I'm going to be looking particularly at the news conference that they're going to do.
And what I'm going to be looking at is the extent to which the domestic politics of the United States and the United Kingdom completely overshadow what it is that they're trying to do, which is to have a great time talk about geopolitics, trade deals.
So what I mean by that is, you know, is Donald Trump going to be asked lots of questions about his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein and other domestic issues?
And is Sir Keir Starmer going to be constantly asked, why are you so rubbish?
All your MPs are saying you're hopeless as prime minister.
When are you going to step down?
So I think that's the big watch for me.
John, let's turn to you.
Well, great to be with everybody.
I'm John Sudworth.
I've just returned from a three-year stint as the BBC senior North America correspondent, based in New York.
Before that, I was in China for the best part of a decade.
Fantastic to be here, hear everybody's views and thoughts on what's going to be an extraordinary couple of days.
What am I looking out for?
Well, I suppose for me...
The big thing is results.
You know, it's interesting to see that in both criticisms and supporters of this state visit there is, at heart, a sort of common understanding.
You know, critics say that this is a reward for a fickle and temperamental leader with questionable values, commitments to democratic values.
But of course, those who support this visit would argue that that's precisely why it's necessary.
You know, we have the president that the American people have chosen.
There's nothing we can do about it.
And that if we need to roll out the carpet, if we need to engage in the diplomacy of flattery well, it's in our interests to do so.
And I think really, in terms of whether this is a success or not from the UK's perspective, will come in the detail.
Will there be progress on those steel tariffs?
Will there be this big tech deal that is being trailed ahead of this visit?
So in a sense, the proof will be in the pudding.
OK, John, great to have you with us.
It's so nice that you're fresh back from the US, so it's great to have your analysis.
Now, with us in the studio, Charlotte and Frank.
Charlotte, let's come to you first.
I'm Charlotte Gallagher and I've covered lots of royal events for the BBC Meghan and Harry's wedding, the death of Queen Elizabeth, the coronation, Trooping the Colour.
So I'm used to seeing these royal events and looking for things that are interesting, things that stand out.
So I'm really interested in the fact that President Trump has got a second state visit and also what's going to happen from that.
And the thing that I'm going to be watching out for is his speech at the state banquet.
He's not someone who tries to hide how he's feeling.
So I think...
That speech, the language he uses, his body language, will give you a really good indication of how the visit has gone.
Okay.
And Frank Gardner, last but not least.
Hi, I'm Frank Gardner.
I'm BBC security correspondent.
I've been doing this since 2002.
The two things I'm going to be looking out for here are assassination attempts.
And I know that sounds gruesome, but, you know, he is a target.
He's been targeted before.
And of course, we're just days after the killing of Charlie Kirk in the US.
So there is a heightened awareness of that risk.
And the other thing is disruption.
There's a lot of people in this country who don't want Donald Trump to come here.
So are there going to be protests?
I don't think the risk is as big as if he was going to be doing walkabouts in, say, central London.
But nevertheless, you know, are people going to try and fly drones into the airspace over Windsor Castle.
Things like that.
OK, great to have the four of you with us.
Let's remind ourselves how this second visit came about.
It is my pleasure to bring from His Majesty the King a letter.
He sends his best wishes and his regards, of course.
But he also asked me to bear this letter and bring it to you.
So can I present a letter from the King to you?
Thank you very much.
Am I supposed to read it right now?
Yeah, please do.
LAUGHTER
I will do.
I've got to tell him what your reaction is.
I need to know.
He's a great gentleman.
A great, great gentleman.
And so let's set the stage now.
I want to turn to you, Rob and John.
Rob, why did Keir Starmer initiate this unprecedented second visit in the first place?
I'll come to that in a second, Celia.
But let me give you a fabulous little story that I came across at the weekend about the invite right, the mechanics of it.
And that is that Downing Street had thought really carefully about this big fat juicy prize of him being the only person to get a second state visit.
And they rehearsed handing over the letter right that it was going to be in his jacket.
I was going to get it out.
I mean, they actually rehearsed this in london.
And then there was a hitch when they got to the white house.
When they got to the white house the security people said excuse me sir, you know you can't be carrying in letters.
Everything needs to be sort of searched and vetted and and scanned.
And there was a bit of a kerfuffle.
And for one horrible minute, it looked like that kind of incredible ploy that they were planning.
This thing that they'd actually rehearsed the getting out of the letter.
Wouldn't it just be so wonderful to have recordings of those rehearsals?
I mean, wouldn't that just be amazing to be able to watch Keir Starmer rehearsing handing over a letter?
But what a story, right?
But anyway, he got the letter and he handed it out.
You asked, why did he do it?
And I think the answer is pretty straightforward, and that is that the United Kingdom has just absolutely determined, whatever else is in front of it, to maintain very good relations with the United States.
I mean, in many ways, it's become more important, Britain's relationship with the US, since Brexit.
I mean, that was inevitable.
When Britain left the European Union, it would inevitably be sort of pushed more towards Washington.
And right from the get-go.
Even before he became Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer basically thought right, it doesn't matter what you think of President Trump and those around him, Britain's national interests come first.
That's why there's the second visit.
That's why they're going to really lay out the red carpet for him.
It's about trying to pursue Britain's national interests when it comes to trade, to the economy.
That is massively important, probably the most important thing about this trip.
But, as you're likely to hear from John and Frank as well, also to try and sort of keep President Trump on side in terms of the security issues that matter to the West, principally NATO and supporting Ukraine.
Rob, can you tell us more about the current state of relations?
Because, on one hand, you're painting this as something that's really vital for the UK, that it's quite important that this trip go well.
But onlookers might look at the UK's relations with the US and think well, actually things are going pretty well compared to maybe, how the United States is dealing with other countries.
So can you paint a picture for us on the current state of ties?
I'll do my best.
I mean, you couldn't imagine two politicians, two people, more different in terms of both their sort of politics and their personality.
The brashness of Donald Trump and his politics of the sort of populist right, compared to sort of loyally, rather how would you call it managerial kistama.
And I'm told, you know one interesting bit of detail that when they talk on the phone, which they do often, 80 of the talking is done by President Trump.
But relations are good.
I mean, Downing Street has put a lot of work into this.
And I think that if you compare Donald Trump's relationship with other G7 leaders, Sir Keir Starmer, unlikely as it is, is probably pretty much his best pal.
OK, John Sudworth, let's get your take on this.
I mean, why do you think Donald Trump is getting on Air Force One?
He's not a man who really loves to travel, we don't think.
What do you think he's trying to get out of this trip?
In some ways, it's the most difficult question.
You know, as Rob was outlining, it's obvious why the UK sees this state visit as in its advantage.
You know this unprecedented second state visit for a second term president.
And you know some people would say that the success of that outreach already is one of the few things you can point to as really going well for Keir Starmer at the moment.
He's won dividends from it.
The 10 tariff rate that the UK enjoys is significantly lower than that of the European Union and much lower than many other countries.
You know there is clearly something that is in the UK's interest in attempting now to build on that further.
And that's why, of course, it's not just the unprecedented nature of the visit, but it's The fact that President Trump will be in Windsor Castle not Buckingham Palace this time, but Windsor Castle.
This is really an effort to sort of bolster relations by pulling out all the stops.
From the US point of view.
You know, in terms of actual sort of concrete wins, much harder to put your finger on it.
I mean, for the UK, the American market is worth more than 20% of our GDP. net exports.
That's a big chunk.
In reverse, of course, with the US, a much, much bigger economy, the UK is single digits.
But I think really the transaction here for a transactional president, if you like, is the visit itself.
We know President Trump enjoyed his first state visit during his first term.
This, by all accounts, will be even more prestigious.
He craves that kind of recognition on the global stage.
The idea of being an international statesman, this bolsters that image.
And I think that is very important for Donald Trump.
Are there some things that might work for the Americans here?
Well, perhaps questions over Russian sanctions and the idea of getting Europeans to wean themselves off their dependency on Russian oil and gas.
The UK doesn't have such a dependency.
The Americans might see Britain as a bridge to being able to sort of influence allies in Europe.
But I think the exchange here is one of rewarding President Trump with the prestige that he so desires in exchange for concrete benefits for the UK trade alliance, its economy and its strategic view of what needs to be done over things like the war in Ukraine.
OK, John, thanks for taking us through that.
I think at this point we can't really go much further in this discussion without acknowledging one man.
It's amazing we haven't bumped into him yet.
And that's the the ghost of Jeffrey Epstein, who will sort of be looming over this visit.
We have to remember Jeffrey Epstein, the late convicted man. sex trafficker.
Now the UK's ambassador to the United States, Peter Mandelson, was just sacked over the extent of his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
Of course, the Epstein story is a story that Donald Trump has been trying to get away from for quite some time.
I on the state of the Epstein story and how both countries or both leaders, Keir Starmer and Donald Trump, might be dealing with it at the moment.
It is, of course, the elephant in the room.
It looms over this visit, not just because of the sacking of Peter Mandelson but, of course, because of Donald Trump's own history with Jeffrey Epstein and his friendship.
And of course, The royal family itself embroiled in the scandal through Prince Andrew.
It will undoubtedly be asked about.
The big question is you know how much will that sort of upset the?
You know, the imaging and the choreography and the attempt to present this as a positive success?
I think, you know, obviously with President Trump, the unpredictability is always there.
The risks of him saying something, you know, will always loom in the background.
I think probably they are not as high as some might fear, partly because of the strength of that relationship already.
He likes Keir Starmer.
Nigel Farage was in the White House recently and came out saying that...
Almost through gritted teeth, you wonder.
The friendship is genuine.
Donald Trump really does seem to have an affection for Keir Starmer.
So there is an enormous success to this visit.
You know, in a way for the British government, the timing is dreadful.
Peter Mandelson if you leave aside the questions over judgment et cetera by many people's account proving to be a very good ambassador to the United States.
You know, this trade agreement, this broad principle trade agreement had been got across the line.
The mood music was good and positive.
But I think ultimately, we've seen on previous occasions when Donald Trump has been in the UK, when the press have tried to draw him in into commenting, into criticizing uh, he can sometimes, um you know, prove far more adept at avoiding those kind of pitfalls and, as i say, he will want this visit to be one of prestige, one of you know of, of sort of bolstering him on the world stage.
You know, that is what all of the choreography is aimed at doing here.
And so I think he will know, as he has in the past, that those things are probably best avoided.
So I think the risks are small.
But of course, with Mr. Trump, you can never rule them out entirely.
I'd echo everything that John had said and just would purely add that Keir Starmer needed the whole Jeffrey Epstein, Peter Mandel thing to erupt, like he needed a hole in the head, given how much problems his prime ministership and government are in.
I think one of the reasons why he had been a bit reluctant to sack Peter Mandel so that he was thinking ahead to the visit and thinking, hang on a minute, he could be there at a news conference And someone might ask, well, how come you sacked Peter Mandelson for being a mate of Jeffrey Epstein?
But you're standing here with the president of the United States, who also used to have some kind of relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.
He wanted to avoid that at all costs.
He couldn't in the end.
Domestic politics, domestic pressure him, forced him to get rid of Peter Mandelson.
But, yeah, done an awful lot of damage in the process.
Charlotte, I should say you know I brought up Jeffrey Epstein without really mentioning the royal family.
Of course, they don't want to mention Mr. Epstein either, do they?
They do not want to talk about Jeffrey Epstein.
It's hugely embarrassing for them.
It's hugely damaging for them that the king's brother, Prince Andrew, was closely associated with Jeffrey Epstein.
He's always denied any wrongdoing in terms of his behaviour with young girls and women, but it's known that they had a friendship.
He said he deeply regrets that friendship, but that friendship went on for years.
There's pictures of them walking together in Central Park.
It's known forever.
They were close, so i don't think the royal family want to talk about it either, because it led to the removal of prince andrew as a working royal, like he no longer has any kind of official role in the royal family.
He used to kind of have these things where he was involved in trade and doing bits and bobs and he'd always, you know, be on the balcony for all the big state things.
He's kind of a man in the shadows now.
He'll pop up occasionally.
So at Christmas when they go to church or if they go to church at Easter.
But it's like almost like they've let him come because he's asked.
They don't want him there.
You get the sense that they do not want him with them photographed because it reflects really badly on them.
So it's kind of like no one wants to talk about Jeffrey Epstein.
He is the elephant in the room.
But you imagine, like I think Rob or John said, that when there's a press conference, those are the questions that are going to be asked.
It's going to be about Jeffrey Epstein, a man who died years ago, but is still in the newspapers.
And it's a story that won't go because everyone thinks a lot of people think that there's still much more to come out of that story.
OK well, let's please the royal family and Donald Trump for a moment by focusing on the things, the parts of the state visit that they are hoping are going to be highlighted.
I mean, at the start of this podcast, we mentioned the term tiara diplomacy.
And this kind of nods to something that the UK can offer Donald Trump that no other country can.
And that's because he's fascinated by the royal family and connections to the royals.
I mean Charlotte, can you take us through that?
The pageantry that we're expecting from this visit?
I mean this will have the pomp of a usual state visit.
I mean, a state visit is the biggest trump card to pardon the pun that the uk can offer any kind of world leader, and trump particularly.
He is so almost obsessed with the royal family and this disney version of the british royal family that particularly appeals to him.
So When he had his last state visit in 2019, he even made a photo book of the pictures of himself and the Queen.
And he was showing this to journalists saying, no one else has pictures like these.
Look at the Queen.
Isn't she wonderful?
So he really wants to be seen with these people.
I think he likes the legacy, the status they have, that kind of, as I said, the Disney version of Britain.
You know, he's going to a castle for this visit.
He's going to Windsor Castle.
So the history of that building.
And the things that they've planned are things that are really going to appeal to President Trump.
So, for example, they're going to lay a wreath on the grave of the memorial of Queen Elizabeth who died, and the Queen, as I said, was called a wonderful woman by him.
They're also going to be viewing the archives of Winston Churchill, who we know that Mr Trump really admires.
There's going to be a royal salute.
There's going to be a flypast featuring the Red Arrows.
There's going to be this enormous state banquet.
So it's kind of tick tick tick tick tick, all the things that he will want to kind of show off about in a way.
And it's understandable that the British government have wanted to use the royal family in this way to kind of promote stronger links with the US, particularly when it comes to trade.
But the one thing we won't see much of is him out and about.
He's not going to be having an open top procession through the streets of Windsor because of protests, basically.
So there will be a carriage ride, but it'll be inside the Windsor estate and he'll be moved around, probably in helicopters.
So you won't have him coming into contact with the public.
And of course, the Royal Family have rolled out the big guns.
So it's King, Queen, Prince and Princess of Wales.
And they're the people that he will want to be photographed with and he will want to talk to.
OK, you guys have focused a lot on Trump's enthusiasm for the royals.
But let's look at it the other way.
I mean, we have King Charles and Queen Camilla, who are going to be spending a lot of time with President Trump and his wife Melania.
Just to focus on King Charles for a moment.
I mean, he has he's a known environmentalist.
He, we believe, has quite strong political views particularly, you know, we know that he was quite upset on Donald Trump's comments towards Canada.
We have to remember that King Charles is also the king of Canada.
So, Charlotte, I mean, how do you think King Charles will handle this visit?
Do you think he's going to try any private conversations and to nudge Mr Trump towards something that he might want to have happen?
I mean, I think essentially he'll probably stick to the script which the UK government has given him.
But I wouldn't be surprised if things were mentioned.
I mean, we know, like you said, he has very strong views, but he's not the kind of person, I think, to push those views during a state visit.
He will see his role as representing the UK and representing the UK's interests.
And these interests at the So I can't imagine him now having any kind of outburst at President Trump about Ukraine or drilling for oil.
But, you know, there could be things said in private.
You imagine he might want to say some things, but I think it's all going to be very carefully thought about.
And he's so used to... meeting leaders from right across the world.
I mean, even ones that he might not agree with on everything.
But I think there's probably some things that they can find in common.
They're actually a really similar age.
They've got children the same age.
So they can talk about those kind of things as well.
And look, I doubt he's going to kind of go off on a tangent.
No, it's just not his role.
I mean, there was always that fear from some people when he came to the throne that he was going to be a very kind of different king to his mother, different kind of monarch.
But I don't think now he's going to go wildly off script.
OK well Charlotte, you had mentioned that Donald Trump isn't expected to be kind of paraded in an open top carriage around Windsor, that this visit is very closed in that respect.
I mean, Frank, let's bring you in to this.
I mean, can you talk a little bit about how this visit was planned?
I mean, President Trump, it seems, will be kept away from crowds.
Yeah, this is quite different, I think, from President George W Bush's visit, for example, which was gosh more than 20 years ago.
And that was much more of a security hazard, I think, because he was going to be potentially coming into contact with crowds.
This is only a short two day visit.
He's not going to be mingling with, as you say, in an open top vehicle in crowds.
But it is.
You know, we are talking here about a president who has survived an assassination attempt fairly recently.
We're talking about a period in our time when people are taking the law into their own hands if they don't like what somebody says, and shooting at them.
That is the fear.
So the preparations for this have taken place both out of sight and personally, slightly more overtly.
So on the intelligence side, MI5 will have been working with police counterterrorism to identify any known obsessives extremists, any sort of nuts basically, who think that it might be a good idea to try and get hold of a sniping rifle and put yourself up on a rooftop.
So the police will have looked at every possible or will are still looking at every possible angle.
They're going on to rooftops.
They're trying to make sure that nobody can take a long distance shot.
There are just under half a million firearms in private ownership in this country.
Most of those are shotguns.
Britain does actually have a pretty tight gun control laws.
Ever since Dunblane in 1996, when That horrendous massacre of schoolchildren.
It's very difficult to own a handgun in this country.
It's slightly easier to own a rifle.
And even a 22 low caliber rifle could kill somebody at a mile potentially, if you know what you're doing.
You'd have to be a pretty lucky shot, but Charlie Kirk was killed from 130 metres.
So every angle is being looked at.
There's also the question of drones, which are now a fact of life in modern society.
So the airspace over Windsor is going to be closed and the police will have their own drones observing, which is something they didn't have 20 years ago.
They're going to be able to look down on the scene.
Some of these things are really high definition quadcopters that can read a number plate at 400 metres with no problem.
Frank, stay with us for a second.
And I want our other guests to hear this too.
Let's go to our security analyst, Mikey Kay.
He presents the security brief on the BBC.
And he has some personal experience in dealing with high level state visits between the US and the UK.
Whenever a US president travels abroad, the security operation is sizable and significant.
I was part of the formation that welcomed Bill Clinton in 1998 into Northern Ireland just after the Good Friday Agreement.
We flew in formation. around seven to nine helicopters with Marine One and Marine Two.
Marine One is the US president's primary helicopter.
Sikorsky and Marine Two is the backup if anything goes wrong with that.
Highly serviced, highly maintenance and very unlikely engineering perspective would go wrong.
So I've seen it.
It's huge and it won't be dissimilar when President Trump arrives in the UK this week.
It's a huge operation on the UK side as well, both from an air, land and sea perspective.
Not so much sea, but the River Thames.
There will be very manoeuvrable boats being used by the police to patrol the Thames area on the ground.
You'll have special operations teams from the UK Police Service.
You'll have snipers, likely operating drones.
And then, from an air perspective as well, Windsor Castle.
It's around six miles off the extended centre line of Heathrow.
And Windsor Castle already has a restricted operating zone over it.
And that goes up to two and a half thousand feet. with a one nautical mile radius on that.
That is always in place.
On top of that, they're inside the Thames Valley avoidance area, which you require air traffic control approval to transit through.
That was Mikey Kay.
Frank, just reflecting on this, he said a couple of times how huge this security operation is.
It's amazing to think that President Trump isn't even going to be in central London.
He's going to Windsor outside of London.
Then he's going to the prime minister's country residence, Chequers.
And yet still it sounds like it's going to be quite disruptive for people on the ground while the president is in the country.
I think it is because of the size.
I mean, obviously, in the US, you have something called the Secret Service.
They're not particularly secret at all.
You know, I mean, it's weird.
I mean, if you go around DC I'm sure both Rob and John will have seen this you know.
You've got cars there and people with it on their jackets saying Secret Service and like shouldn't you guys be hiding that?
Yeah.
So, you know, their job is to protect the president.
And of course, they failed abysmally when he got shot at that in that field in Pennsylvania.
And you know.
But their job is not just to physically protect him during his presence, when he's there, but also to search for the entire area, which is what they, of course, failed to do in Pennsylvania sufficiently.
So, yeah, it's going to be very big.
It's a huge intelligence task for everybody.
They're going to be looking to make sure that there's not stuff coming up on chat rooms that could possibly be a threat.
OK, so we've talked about what's on the line for the US, the UK, Keir Starmer, President Trump and King Charles.
We've talked about the size of this security operation and the protests that are expected.
But I think we have to remember that this is actually even bigger than that, because there are a lot of countries that will be watching how this visit plays out.
There's other countries that have things on the line.
And Frank, with this in mind, I wonder if we can turn to you now.
Just to reflect on the NATO alliance, both countries, of course, are members of that alliance.
But other countries that are also within NATO, what will they be hoping that the UK can accomplish?
Can you just give us a picture of what's happening with NATO at the moment and maybe where that alliance might end up?
Trump has an ambivalent attitude towards NATO and likewise NATO countries have an ambivalent attitude towards him.
On the plus side.
He's done a very good job of giving those countries that weren't paying their way a kick out the backside and saying I'm not going to support you.
I'm not going to come to your defense if you don't pay your way.
And there was a seminal moment earlier this year in February, when Pete Hegseth, his defense secretary, addressed all the NATO defense ministers in Brussels just before the Munich Security Conference, and when JD.
Vance gave his speech at that, where he told them, The party's over.
America is no longer going to provide the security umbrella for you in Europe.
You're on your own, or words to that effect.
You know, and they are looking to draw down their troops, their presence in Europe.
So that is basically galvanized or at least in theory should be galvanizing Europe into paying more for their defense, to carry more of the weight that has previously frankly been carried by the US taxpayer.
You know, he's got a very good point.
Why should US taxpayers be paying all this money for a continent that isn't prepared to pay for its own defense?
So that is changing.
On the minus side, he has done enormous damage to confidence in NATO and the Transatlantic Alliance.
Through his friendship with Vladimir Putin, through his endless failed ultimatums and deadlines, his shilly-shang back and forth.
On one minute he's going to be tough, I'm very upset with him.
And the next, you know he's a great friend and all of this.
You know, it is immensely damaging.
That plus the tariffs.
So I was in Singapore at the Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore In June and a number of delegates from countries like Malaysia Vietnam Philippines, said to me look, we look to the United States as our big protector, but we frankly, don't have that confidence anymore.
He's done so much damage to our economies with the tariffs and it shows that he doesn't really have our interests at heart.
And that is pushing countries like India, for example, towards China.
And you know there's meant to be this great big, ultimate race as to who is going to be the most powerful economic country in the world, between China and the United States.
Trump's actions have given China a huge help in that direction.
Thanks to our guests, Frank Gardner, Charlotte Gallagher, John Sudworth and Rob Watson.
For more in-depth explainers like this one, just search for Global News Podcast online or wherever you get your podcasts from.
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