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The playoff picture is starting to get into shape.
Some teams are starting to separate themselves.
Some teams are starting to sprout holes.
The Patriots are somehow looking good.
Trying to try not to talk about that too much since the game is on Thursday.
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We are live on YouTube here.
It's the Bill Simmons Podcast.
Sunday night, Cousin Sal is here.
Mike, why can't we get a good Sunday night game?
Adam, what do we have to do?
Do we have to kill a chicken and spit the blood all over us?
What do we have to do, Mike?
We finally get a closed game in the end.
The refs blow it.
We can't end like that.
Start it over.
I wanted to see Jared Goff get redeemed and throw five more incompletions Mike, even if he only had four downs.
The worst.
QBs on good teams where you know right away they might not have it.
Is Goff number one?
Oh, wow.
I'll offer you Goff, Darnold, Daniel Jones, and Lamar Jackson.
Are they all in the NFC North?
Yeah.
Two of them are.
Yeah.
Boy, it's tough because I'm looking at stats and everything like Goff in cold weather or Goff outdoors.
He has a number, like 39 degrees, and it was 44 degrees, so I couldn't even blame it on that.
But yeah, he really does look like... I mean, he was 2-for-18.
Forget about that call at the last stupid pass interference call, whatever.
He's 2-for-18 down the stretch.
It's miserable to watch.
And the Eagles are miserable to watch, too.
But they're the Eagles, and they play great defense.
And that's why they're there.
But yeah, he is Jekyll and Hyde, boy.
When you say 2-for-18, just to clarify for the people listening tomorrow who missed the game Sal Means.
Two completions out of 18 attempts.
His last 18.
Two for 18.
It's literally the John Starks number.
Yeah, sometimes you just know.
And it was weird because we had just watched it happen with Darnold in the game right before against the Rams, where just something tilts.
These guys that can look like superheroes one day and then the next day, Jones is the obvious one.
And then Lamar is kind of the wild card.
Our friend Hench was making January Lamar jokes on our text thread during that.
Cleveland game where sometimes it just doesn't look right.
But uh, I guess I thought about for a second, given the defense's credit today, because watching that Browns defense like man they're, they're tough.
And miles Garrett, that poor bastard stuck on that team forever.
That sucks.
Imagine what he would do for it.
Yeah, he did.
They're probably paying him for it.
And the same with Philly, like everything, they were clogging the middle.
Everything was getting batted down.
Every pass was covered.
Like, you know, the, the cornerbacks were great.
This was not, I feel like, uh, Dan Campbell made the call like two weeks too early.
He's like, ah, I called all the plays.
I called all the offensive plays when they played Washington.
It's like, what are you going to say now?
You had it every other week?
Like, this was just dismal.
He should have given it back to the guy this week and then taken it back again next week.
He should just keep yanking it back and forth.
Their defense was awesome.
Two straight weeks, it's been awesome.
And I think, you know, now we're, this is, next week's the last, Sunday before Thanksgiving.
The NFL is now real.
We have a nice sense of who might be legitimate and who's not.
See, people say they listen and you never give good insight on anything.
Yes.
Last Sunday before Thanksgiving.
One of the reasons that we've been around forever.
We have these great tidbits.
But I feel comfortable saying this now.
We've had 11 weeks sample size.
I think Philly's defense is better than any other unit in the NFC.
We can at least start there.
They're better at playing defense than anyone else is at doing anything else in the NFC.
I think is a fair statement, especially the Jalen Phillips trade.
They got some guys back.
It just feels like they have a rush.
They can stop the run.
They can defend the pass.
They basically do everything.
A lot of guys have not a lot, but there are teams with good front sevens, front fours, whatever that you can't run on.
You can't pass up the middle against the Eagles.
You're going to get just a tip. all night for three hours.
And it's and it's uh, it's hideous to watch cause I I don't like the Eagles and I find that they're boring, but I guess it would be worse if there was going six touchdowns a game.
And I had to watch like Barkley celebrate and, and, uh, you know, AJ Brown and everything.
But, um, yeah, man, they just, you can't tack that.
They, every trade they make that Howie Roseman must be such a pain in the ass, right.
To deal with like that.
We boot him.
We, we are in the fantasy draft where you can kick somebody out.
Yeah.
I feel like we'd kick him out every two years just to get him out of the league, so we'd have a better chance.
Howard just comes in and is like, oh, fuck.
I'm going to get voted out.
Yeah, you're going to get voted out again.
That's why everyone's trading with him, because he said he's probably calling these other GMs at three in the morning.
Like, stop calling.
Fine, I'll give you three ones for your punter.
Just stop calling me.
It's good.
And now they have a loaded roster again.
It's not going to change.
Well, it seems like the Patriots were also going after Jalen Phillips.
Yeah.
And I think maybe even offering a third.
They didn't want to trade him in the division.
And you could argue their third's probably slightly better than the Philly third, around the same.
But yeah listen, I look at like even when I think about the Patriots, I think you can throw on the Patriots.
They're one pass rusher short.
You can even feel it in the Thursday night game.
Like, Fields had time to throw.
There was that receiver, that Mitchell that they got from the Colts.
There were multiple times during that game where it felt like he could make a play and either he dropped the ball or he was in the wrong spot.
But, There were guys open that whole game.
Philly, not the same.
And especially when we get into cold weather.
It's a team built toward January.
And they kind of know who they are.
They're going to be super boring.
They're going to make you wonder why they don't throw to the receivers more.
Sirianna is going to do something fucking wacko in the last four minutes.
Like what he did today.
What was that?
They're up 10.
Just punt.
Goff's done nothing.
He can't move the ball against you.
Why are you giving them any semblance of life and a field goal and any chance to do anything?
All you do is punt.
You win the game.
But he just can't resist just getting weird.
He won the Super Bowl, so you can't criticize him too much.
He's got to be the king of fourth and one.
We could impose our will on you whenever we want.
That maybe bites him in the ass eventually.
At some point, it will.
It's weird because I feel like the Lions are also built like tough, like the Eagles, except for at the quarterback position.
I really do.
I feel like the entire team, everybody else is.
And, you know, also Gibbs, like every drive was the same.
Like Gibbs starts off with an explosive play, either a run or like a screen pass.
And then it's just pure shit from golf.
Like the next few.
Well, I loaded up on Philly to end the day because I had a couple of things that didn't go well today, but the offensive line was having some injuries than that.
And then Laporta got scratched over the weekend.
Right.
And uh, you know, I don't think that's entirely the reason they scored nine points, but they didn't feel like the same team.
And I, you could feel the, the blocking is just different than it was last year.
I didn't golf, like golf.
I had no time to do anything.
Not that he was going to do anything.
I think that was a way worse loss for Detroit than it was a good win for Philly.
Cause Philly should win that game.
You know the line was minus three for Detroit.
Getting a little gamey now for them because i really think we're gonna have two playoff teams but we have three spots for the two playoff teams out of the nfc north.
We're not getting three playoff teams in the nfc north, i think we're getting two, and in chicago, who's seven and three, green bay is six, three and one and detroit's six and four.
And there's some interesting caveats, including chicago plays green bay twice.
Chicago rest of the schedule, home pittsburgh.
At philly They have a home-and-home with Green Bay.
Their home for Cleveland is the only easy one.
They're at San Francisco, and then they finish against Detroit.
I had that written down.
They'll be an underdog in five of their last seven.
That's what I think.
Right.
So if they go 3-4, they get to 10-7.
But a week after, and we'll talk about that game later, Green Bay 6-3-1.
They still play at Detroit, home Chicago, and at Chicago.
And they also played Minnesota twice.
And they also suck.
Yeah.
Right.
Right.
And they also make you want to stab your eyes.
And then the Lions, 6-4.
But weirdly, they have the Giants next week.
They have Green Bay once at home, and they have at Chicago, and that's about it.
So if you had to say who falls out between those three, who would you pick?
Chicago 7-3, Green Bay 6-3, and Detroit 6-4.
I would still say Chicago.
I know they have all the wins, and they have seven, so they need probably three to get in.
I don't know why.
Maybe I'm holding on, and I just said Green Bay sucked, but I think you're right.
This loss was worse for Detroit than the win was good for Philly, because it does show what November and December could be like in the cold weather and stuff and everything's a little scattered.
It doesn't go their way.
I just don't believe them at all outdoors if they have to be outdoors in January.
Last year's team had more of a case, because I think they were just deeper and their offensive line was better.
I don't believe in this team.
They weren't outdoors last year either.
It's like now they have like four, I think, the rest of the way.
Well, Fando has them plus 285 to miss the playoffs, which is interesting.
The Bears are plus 110.
So I guess from an odd standpoint, they agree with you.
Green Bay's plus 280.
So Fando is saying, Chicago, we don't believe in this team.
We are going to see them fall out of the pack.
And yet every week they pull a fucking win out of their ass.
I have them at two wins, two losses, and six either or games.
And they're seven and three.
So that means they're five and one in the either or games, basically.
Yeah, they're an unremarkable seven and three.
Yeah, at minus 140 to make the playoffs.
So I don't know.
They just, the benefit of, I don't know.
Do you want to talk about that game now?
Yeah, let's do it quick.
They've five come from behind wins.
Mm-hmm.
And they're tied for the... Or they have the lead now in the NFC North.
And Ben Johnson's locker room thing is now my single favorite thing to look forward to on Sundays.
Yeah.
He did it at the end.
He's like, we did it again.
All three phases down the stretch.
He said that.
It's like, but you gave up a... Go ahead.
Scored in Minnesota with like a minute left.
I don't know if it was all three phases.
Good kick return.
That was the... Maybe two of the... Yeah, you got a kick return.
You got a couple first downs.
But I mean...
There is something about these teams that just pull wins out of their ass, and that's the team this year.
So I don't know.
Usually it doesn't end.
Usually it goes the course of a season and then has a dramatic overcorrection the next season.
So I don't know.
You think this ends?
Well, I do think it ends, but now Caleb Williams is being lumped in.
I know no one loves Bo Nix, but just from that draft class I see Drake made 8-0, Caleb Williams 7-1.
Bo Nix, 8-0 in their last eight.
So now those guys are all lumped together.
So now you hear enough of that, and Chicago thinks, yeah, we are a playoff team.
We're going to do this.
And I don't even – I look at that box score.
They had 330 total yards, Chicago.
You've got to win that game at home if you're Minnesota.
Right.
Caleb, it was weird because his scrambling is just great.
Yeah.
He has four or five of their Lamar-level –
I can't believe he got out of that place.
And then the ball is just going all over the place.
And sometimes it's a good place, sometimes it isn't.
But he is really hard to take down.
And I do feel like there's a little bit of a ceiling with him if he can just kind of calm down and keep the passes in the mix.
I don't know.
They rely on those turnovers.
They got an unbelievable McCarthy performance today.
He was so bad, it was almost defied belief.
And I really thought, I don't even...
What school did Max Brosmer go to?
Who is Max Brosmer?
I think he actually went to Minnesota College.
It got to the point where I just thought he was coming in for the third quarter.
Let's see it.
Yeah.
Well, they can't play McCarthy for another half.
He's unplayable.
He was actually unplayable.
They brought him back.
And then in the last kind of drive, all of a sudden he settled down.
It was a little Bo Nix-ish.
We really...
It was beyond like boot and rally bow.
It was something I don't even know what it is.
I'm done giving these quarterbacks nicknames.
It gets me in trouble.
It started with your guy.
I love your nickname.
The Pats haven't lost since the Drake baby podcast.
Believe me, I know it.
I need to give my own quarterback.
I need to call him Dak Prescott to be cut or something.
Prescott got something just to inspire him.
But you're right.
You're right.
No, since the Drake baby.
Call him Mr. August or something.
Yeah.
Yeah, but Jay, I mean, it was 16 for 32, 150, two interceptions.
Could have been seven interceptions.
Could have been anything you wanted out of that.
And it's just, yeah, you're right.
Where is Brosmer?
This Bears, you know, defense isn't great.
Like Flacco lit him up in the fourth quarter.
Maybe it's just a fourth quarter thing, but he did what he wanted against them, right?
Yeah.
Absolutely have to win that game.
I wrote it down before that last drive.
McCarthy had 74 yards passing.
He had two picks, and he was 3.0 yards per attempt.
And then in that last drive basically doubled his stats for the entire game, because he threw for like 75 yards and threw for a touchdown.
But it was so bad.
And I think big picture, it just cost them the season.
They have to run the slate now, and I don't think they're going to run the slate with them.
The receivers looked really frustrated.
And I think their team's pretty good.
Like it's their quarterback has just killed them game after game, going back to Wentz.
And you know they the the Monday night game.
When he beat them they was it was the bears right on that first Monday night game.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And he got hot basically for three point 20 minutes.
Other than that, not a lot going on with it.
I mean, they run the ball to like Aaron Jones is back.
They do do nice things.
It's not like they have to rely on the past.
Right.
But then you got, Blue chip receivers, obviously Jefferson and Addison.
Those guys shouldn't be getting like six receptions total, whatever it is.
I was looking at like an adjusted, maybe it's just over.
Maybe it's like under five and a half wins.
I see like plus 420.
That could be it.
What do you mean?
I'm just seeing Fandle has adjusted wins.
Like Minnesota under five and a half is plus 420.
Oh, Jesus.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Well, I don't know.
I don't see a lot.
This is still.
This is a quarterback that is going to be at a disadvantage in a lot of these matchups.
Well then the Packers.
They beat a bad team and they looked like shit, which I think is the third or fourth time this year.
They had just drops on both sides of the ball.
It was really interesting.
I don't know how many interceptions they dropped, combined with how many drops their receivers had playing the giants.
It was a classic.
Don't put us in a parlay.
We're going to fuck around and make you super scared for three hours.
Don't do it.
Um, I didn't do it, and of course then put the Cardinals in a parlay instead, which was even worse.
But they're not impressive either.
And at one point, what was it?
Malik Willis going head-to-head against... Malik and Jameis.
Malik and Jameis, the matchup we didn't know we were going to get.
But I have some Packers features, so do you.
Yeah.
I thought they'd turn it on or show flashes by now, and it's just not happening.
And I don't... Now that...
I'm not now Jacob's got hurt today.
I just don't know if they have the skill guys.
No, I think so.
Right.
It has to be a different like Watson caught today.
Well, he just had a touchdown.
But yeah, it's between like six guys who are about the same catching the ball every week.
It's a different one.
But I don't I don't know what happened to Jordan Love either.
Like we could do this every matchup for anybody, any team who lost.
I'm like, what happened to this quarterback?
But honestly, like the NFC North was supposed to be the beast, like the heavyweights.
Right. trust rating do you put on Goff, McCarthy, Love, Caleb Williams?
Like, if you were to go one to, like, who's won in that?
Is it Caleb Williams?
Has he won now?
Just quarterback.
Like, who would you take if you had to win one playoff game?
Who would you trust?
Yeah.
So my choices are Goff, Caleb Williams, or Jordan Love.
Or McCarthy.
McCarthy's fourth.
So let's say I'm outdoors in January on the road.
Yeah.
And I could have one of those four.
I'd probably take Love.
I don't think I would take Caleb.
There's too much.
It's too erratic, right?
And Goff.
I think, even though Goff has had great stats and has been really loyal, Goff's there for me.
If the weather's bad and you're playing a good defense, I want no part of that.
Love sometimes does that thing where he rears back.
Remember that terrible electric football game?
Yeah.
You have the plastic figures.
You'd have to really sling his arm back.
Like Lobb does, I'm like, oh, you're not even looking at your receiver.
What the hell are you doing?
It's second and eight.
Why are you heaving it downfield like that?
I'm trying to think of.
It's almost like I remember writing about this like 13, 14 years ago, Ryan Reynolds, when they were trying to make Ryan Reynolds a star for like seven years.
Ironically, he belatedly became a star thanks to the Deadpool movie.
He did all right.
But this was from like 2005 to 2012.
He just kept starring in movies.
And people were like, Ryan Reynolds is going to be a star.
And it just wasn't happening for years.
And it would be like, the Amityville Horror remake.
And then it would be like, here's the Sandra Bullock rom-com.
And it just never happened.
And I'm kind of wondering if Love's like that.
Where Love, we've penciled into this group.
And I don't really know what the credentials are, other than he played awesome in that one playoff game that they lost.
Wasn't that to the Niners?
He played great against the Cowboys too.
I know that's what you were getting at.
So they had the one win.
I forgot about that.
But we are penciling him in.
In my head I have him in that category and I don't know if he's earned it at all, because we have a lot of games like the one today, where they just really look struggling.
I agree with you.
I think I would also have the Bears out, even though they have the best record of those three.
Just because I don't trust what I'm watching with my eyes.
I just feel like they should lose every game I'm watching.
It's interesting because we both have Bears fans in our life.
There's no Bears fan who's like, we fucking got it, man.
No way.
Look out.
They're kind of like, I can't believe this.
7-3.
It's enjoyable.
They're having a good time.
I have a Bears friend fan who said we're the worst 7-3 team of all time.
I don't know if I'd go that far, but it's got to be one or two others.
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I have a game I want to play with you.
Oh.
I'm going to give you a bunch of things and it's an excuse for us to talk about the different games, but we're going to rank these sentences in order of improbability, from one being the most probable to 10 being improbable.
I can't wait.
Here's the first one.
Patrick Mahomes blew a fourth quarter lead in a must-win road game and got outplayed by both freaking Knicks.
One to 10, how improbable was that for you as you were watching?
Oh, going into the game?
Yeah, even as you were watching it.
How improbable was it as it was happening?
You know what?
I'm going to say, I have to say like four.
I had Denver plus.
I took the points.
I like this.
Yeah, you've been suspicious of Kansas City for a while now.
You wanted to do a parlay, right?
With division winning parlays or something like early in the week.
And I was like, I don't have a good feeling about.
I actually said on the pregame show, I was like, they're going to score like 19 or 20 points.
Four and a half is too many.
I don't know that Bo Nix can match that, but yeah, I was actually a little more surprised at the defense.
I know Mahomes is getting crap, but I thought Spagnuolo would have something dialed up so that it was 19-7 in the fourth quarter, but it wasn't.
Well, and they just needed a couple stops in the fourth.
Nix was you know?
I think they'll probably.
People will probably overreact to Nix over the course of the week.
He's pretty steady today, made a couple big throws, and certainly outplayed Mahomes.
I like this game, though.
I like it.
Denver runs it for 21 for 59 and they still win.
I'm higher.
I'm like a seven.
Really?
I thought they, Casey scores, they go up 1960 and they're about to kick the extra point.
And I'm thinking like, Oh, why did I worry about the money line?
Cause I, I didn't, it was Casey three and a half.
I was worried about the hook.
Then of course, Bucker misses the extra point and he missed the extra point.
I was like, Holy shit, they're going to fucking lose.
It was like immediately swung the reaction.
Um, But I was like a seven watching it because I just felt like it was such a huge game for KC.
So you don't want to go five and five.
They're five and five.
It's nuts.
I mean, they're minus 225 to make the playoffs.
So people still believe.
But I, you know, I just think the road's really hard.
I know the schedule is getting a little easier, but they have no room for error now.
I think it's not.
I looked at it.
It's not awful.
So the bad part is they have four teams they lost to ahead of them.
Right.
So yeah, they're minus 220 or something.
Is that what you said to make the playoffs?
They have Chargers, the Broncos, Colts, Texans all at home.
And then at Tennessee and at Las Vegas.
Now they need, they need what?
Five of those to make it.
There's some, is there some weird schedule stuff with them though?
Like they have Christmas or Thanksgiving or Christmas.
They play on both.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I don't love that.
The weird thing is they're 0-5 in one score games and they were 11-0 last year.
So what is that?
Is that referees?
Is that just Mahomes not having his flair in the last drive?
I don't know.
I guess we'll see.
So Mahomes, I just don't think he's playing that well.
It could be one of those things where it's a fun thing to say on a sports talk show.
He doesn't hit guys on those deep balls.
And when he actually does it it's either a pass interference or maybe once a game.
But He had in the first half he had open guys that he just missed.
And I think it was three times, two or three times.
I think it was three.
But then the red zone stuff has been weird too.
Like that interception he threw today was like you know.
That was like a scrub quarterback interception, right.
You're inside the 15.
He didn't realize that guy was just going to jump up and catch the ball.
Like Mahomes, this shit wasn't happening with him a couple years ago.
Right.
So you can't blame the weapons thing because he has weapons.
These guys are like, I think good receivers.
He certainly has better weapons than Buffalo does.
Yeah, I think so too.
And you're right.
And if it wasn't a deep ball, it's the you know, rolling right taking a look down the field seeing if nothing's there.
Oh, wow.
He needed eight.
He just ran for nine.
Like he didn't have the flow.
He wasn't controlling the game at all.
So it is, it is strange, but what are we going to do?
We're going to bet against this team.
I wouldn't take a no at plus one 90 or whatever to not make the playoffs.
No way.
Plus four, 80 for the division, which has to be the biggest odds they've had since Alex Smith was their QB.
Isn't it weird that they're ahead of the Chargers, who are 550, despite Chargers' one and a half game lead?
I mean, they look so awful today.
That was the worst loss for a team, yeah.
Yeah, I don't feel like this is an overreaction.
They haven't looked right all year, and you can't blame the weapons.
I don't think their offensive line's that good.
Like, they have these holdings every single game.
There's like one, two, three, four holdings that just, they're like crippling.
All of a sudden it's you know second and 18, third and 17, because over and over again, it seems like their guys can't block.
They just don't look right to me.
And I think they're running out of time here because let's say they get in now.
I don't think they have any chance to be a five seed.
No, it doesn't look like it.
No.
So you're in the six, seven seed range, but I just, it's going to be a long haul.
They're never going to, They're not going to have a home game for the entire playoffs.
They're going to have to play every round.
They have some older guys on their team, so there's some injury stuff.
And you know it was the first time I was watching a Mahomes game, thinking to myself I think my Patriots quarterback would have done better on that one.
Oh, you guys with that.
Yeah.
It's fine.
I get it.
Yeah.
I premiered my sauna YouTube shorts today.
I did a quick Mahomes thing.
Yeah.
I did it in the sauna.
And then Chris Ryan pointed out, I should have called it actually hot takes cause I'm hot.
Oh, that's good.
Yeah.
It'd been good.
Are you nude or are you wearing some stuff?
I wear a t-shirt, which apparently is controversial.
Some people don't understand why I have a t-shirt and sauna, but I like to wipe my face with a t-shirt as a you don't have a towel.
I'll have, I'll send you towels.
I'll go on Amazon.
I don't like the feel of a, cow on the face.
I'd rather the shirt.
I know it's weird.
I'm not the colors running.
Got the ringer green.
I got a white t-shirt like the Hulk coming out.
Oh, well, all right.
Let me just say this about the chiefs.
We will bet them at Tennessee.
We'll put them on a teaser.
We'll bet them at Las Vegas.
We'll put them on a teaser.
We'll bet them home against the Texans money line or whatever few points they're given.
We'll bet them home against the Colts next week.
I won't say the line because it ruins everything.
And then the rematches against Chargers and Broncos.
I don't know if I feel good about that Colts game.
All right.
I mean they have played them tough in the past, but they you think they get swept by both the Chargers and Broncos.
Like, I think they'll get, I think there's five wins on this schedule.
Here's what needs to happen.
Mahomes needs to be Mahomes again.
If it's going to be whatever this version is, they're not doing jack shit.
Like there's gotta be some other extra thing for him.
I think five and five is a big deal.
Like we always compare Brady and Mahomes.
Brady went five and five twice in his career.
It was the first two seasons he was a starter.
I think he lost six games once in a season after 2002.
I think he lost five games in a season like two or three times total.
And this is the guy who's supposed to be on that level and they're talking goat stuff and he's a 500 quarterback this season.
And some of these losses are his fault.
Like that red zone thing killed them today.
I thought their defense played pretty well.
I think his receivers are open.
Thornton was open.
I thought Worthy was getting open.
Kelsey was getting open.
You can't play in the weapons.
I think he just lit a fire under his ass.
Honestly, he's playing like he's a 36-year-old quarterback, and he's 30.
And the one time he feels like Mahomes is on these scrambles because he's still dishing out.
It's the one thing he's way better at than Drake May is going out outside the pocket and actually putting his body in people.
Drake May's just getting killed.
And Mahomes is like, Mahomes knocked somebody on his ass today.
But I don't, I just don't think he looks scary this year compared to Josh.
It was like the last three quarters of that game when fucking Kaiser Soze against Tampa.
That was unbelievable.
But we haven't seen Mahomes do that in two years.
No, I'll give you that.
No, for sure.
I still think they're a playoff team based on the schedule.
Not that I think they were a playoff team.
I thought heading into this game, this was the team I was afraid of.
And you know, thinking like with the Pats I was on a couple of Pats threads about trying to figure out the seeds and if we were like the two seed, oh fuck, that means we could be 2-7 against kc.
I don't want to see kc, i still don't want to see kc but um, let's guess the line.
Let's guess the line.
Pat's kc 2-7 in new england.
What's kc's record?
So kc's like 11 and 6 or 10 and 10 and 7, 10 and 7.
Yeah, They had to win like four to five.
I think they put in the tick.
I think everyone's so afraid of Mahomes in a big game.
I think it would be in the tick tack one way or the other.
Let's get there.
That'd be great.
Let's just do that.
Listen, it's more fun if he puts the superhero cape on than the guy.
That is kind of sort of, but not really like.
I just think this whole thing's weird.
He's 30 years old.
He should be peaking and he's not.
And I don't really understand the reason.
And it's not the offensive line like it has been in the past.
We've seen him under siege in the Super Bowl and some other games.
He's not playing well enough.
Yeah.
Pats, Colts, Broncos, win totals.
All the overs have covered.
The Broncos were nine and a half, actually.
They didn't cover yet.
It's their nine and two.
It's almost covered.
Almost.
But just to be fair, because we didn't talk about Denver at all.
Denver's missing a couple guys.
Denver was in a situation that they've been in six, seven times this year where they actually needed their QB to make a couple of plays.
And he did.
They're short on running backs.
Dobbins is out for the year.
And I think that's going to hurt them down the road.
But I thought that was an awesome win for Denver.
Like they have to feel you fall behind.
It looks like either three or four in the fourth quarter.
And you just assume the Chiefs.
Oh, this will be the classic Chiefs winning on the road game.
Really good.
They pulled it off.
It was a nice one.
That defense is good.
Maybe we're not.
And I know you're right.
Mahomes hasn't looked good all year.
So it doesn't really, we shouldn't just blame this week, but Eagles defense.
Great.
Denver defense.
Great today.
So let's see.
And I actually thought Seattle's defense was really good today.
Yeah.
They gave up some stuff early, but they really uh, they boa constricted Stafford as that game went along for the conference.
Buffalo is the favorite of plus three 80, at least on FanDuel.
Colts plus 440.
Chiefs are third at 5-1.
Denver 6-1.
Ravens plus 650, which is fucking bonkers.
I can't wait to talk about them.
And then the Pats are sixth at 7-1, even though they have a real chance to be the one seed and not even play until round two.
And if they play, they'd be home.
Right.
And they're 7-1 to win the conference.
I don't understand that at all.
But if you watch their defense closely Thursday, maybe it made more sense.
I have to take that.
Another emotional hedge bet.
That's a lot.
But also, those six teams, I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them in the Super Bowl right now.
Would you be super surprised?
I'd be surprised by Baltimore.
I don't think they're very good.
We'll get to them.
Actually, let's do it now.
Next improbability scale, 1 to 10.
10 being the highest.
Shadur Sanders didn't save a Browns-blown lead loss at home to Baltimore.
How improbable was this for you on a scale of one to 10?
You can go minus if you want.
One's the lowest.
Yeah, I'll give it a one.
I'll give it a one.
It was also a one for me.
Yeah.
I mean, I live at Baltimore, so that tells you how much I was confident.
He looked so discombobulated that it actually we were texting like does it make sense just to run the ball in the line three times and punt and just have your defense?
Try to win the game versus risking a turnover going backwards.
All stuff that happened when he was the quarterback.
He ended up, he was four for 16 for 47 yards plus a pick.
He just wasn't ready for the speed of the game.
Miserable interception.
He wasn't ready.
It was like they picked him out of the stands and threw him into the game.
It was really bad.
By the way, Dylan Gabriel, not much better, but at least was, you know, not a complete detriment.
And I mean at one point the announcer said Sanders made one completion and the announcer was like well, he is doing what he does best making plays from the pocket.
And I was like, I was like, what quarterback does that?
What quarterback is like bad in the pocket when they have time?
Isn't that like part of being a quarterback?
He has chat GBT.
That's like, I have to say something good about this kid.
Positive compliments.
Here are his stats.
He's four for 16 for 47 yards.
Give me a positive statement.
I could say like, oh, he does what he's doing from the pocket.
Okay.
All right.
I'll read that.
He literally doesn't do anything right because they even the game management.
They're down.
Seven completes a pass.
There's like two 20 left on the clock.
Yeah.
And they walk it up to the line and it just goes to the two-minute warning.
It's like, you might have needed that one.
You're trying to score a touchdown.
Try to get one more playoff before the two-minute, but he just should not be playing.
Do you understand he had... Do you know how many times he was sacked in two years in Colorado?
Well, he was famous for this, right?
What do you think?
I don't know.
It was a lot.
It was over 100, right?
It was 93, which is plenty.
But... And I'm... Not all his fault, but...
50 of them were like, I watched a lot of their games.
I watched a lot of that conference and like that, that's the whole thing.
Yeah.
His decision-making sucks and they're just going to feast on him now.
All right.
Granted, he didn't play with the first team.
Yeah.
Does the first team very good?
I'm not sure, but he didn't play with the first team all week.
So I guess we'll see next week if this concussion holds out, but yeah.
And to be fair to Sanders, we get to watch a lot of bad quarterbacks.
Yes.
This was a case where it actually swung the game when he came in.
Oh, yeah.
Because Baltimore did not play well.
They didn't look right.
It's week 12 next week.
They've shown nothing.
17 first downs total.
Two Lamar picks.
Too many field goals.
No explosiveness.
They end up getting the go-ahead touchdown on this gimmick.
Great call.
Fake tush push.
Andrews runs around.
Runs for like 35 yards.
But they don't look like the Ravens at all.
And that's why the odds are funny.
Because I think people...
I still feel like they're this Ravens team from like two years ago.
They're not even remotely the same team anymore.
Well, they were favorite to win the division when they were like two and five, right?
Now they fought back to five and five and I haven't even checked, but I guess Pittsburgh won.
So yeah, they're minus two 80.
Like that's a foregone conclusion that they're going to win that division.
I'll tell you what else is a little off.
I think Harbaugh is a little off.
Some of this play calling is very strange.
Like as bad as Shador was, they had, I think it was at the eight yard line.
They kicked the field goal to go down.
I was like, freaking go for it there.
Like, just go for it.
Like, leave Shador Sanders at his own eight.
You're going to get the ball back in three real minutes, right?
So, and there was another couple of things like that.
But yeah, they're not in sync at all on any level.
I mean, I thought Henry could just win that game, right?
At some point, it was just like, hand off to Henry.
He'll bust one open soon.
Well, their O-line has been so bad.
I almost think they don't trust Henry like they used to.
I asked Mallory Rubin, giant Ravens fan, for her take and she said the great indictment of the late Harbaugh era continues even in victory.
They routinely come out flat and lifeless and unfocused.
There's just a discombobulated quality to how they play that feels pretty damning.
It all feels so meh right now.
Play calling predictable and flat.
Lame obvious runs up the middle.
Blah, blah, blah.
She was just like, It's just that all the Ravens fans are like, what is happening?
How is this the team?
We were supposed to be in at least one Super Bowl here in the 2020s.
They do not look like a Super Bowl.
That's a team I would want to play in the playoffs because I don't think, unless Lamar is going to have some dramatic athletic recovery.
All right.
I was also a one for that one.
Next one.
Sam Darnold fell apart in a huge game, threw four picks, and became the GOAT.
How improbable was that for you on a scale of one to 10?
Um, I still, I would say six actually.
I didn't think it would be that bad.
I was a seven.
He had sucked me back in.
This is the third time he had sucked me back in.
One of the picks wasn't his fault.
Three of them were right.
And I didn't like the body language and the look on his face after pick three.
There was that it just you get in the PTSD from those last two weeks last year and, and You know, pass rush was good.
It's not like the Rams defense wasn't good.
No.
They weren't that good.
He just was a mess.
This is another thing I want to get better at.
I do want to give the defenses credit.
I feel like we did.
Yeah.
With Denver and with Philly just now.
And I want to do it with the Rams too.
But he really did look... Sam Darnold looked like a guy named Sam Darnold.
Like playing quarterback.
He was really...
To a point where you get a lot of texts from people like, is he throwing the game?
Oh, Sam Donald's throwing the game.
And you know what sucks about living in this era where there's widespread gambling scandals?
It becomes the go-to joke.
Well, you could just be, yeah, but it's fine if it's a joke.
It's like, yeah, he does look like that.
And then you'll have friends like, no, seriously, do you think he's actually throwing it?
But no, I don't fucking think he's doing it.
Stop it already.
This is the time we live in.
But Yeah, I was actually, But then I was surprised that they came back.
You're right.
Seattle's defense stepped up.
That was looking like it was going to be 38-10, right?
Yeah, even at the end the Rams actually got a first down after they got the ball back under three minutes left.
And it felt like, oh, this is over.
And then they stopped them again and somehow got the ball back at the 10 with enough time to move the ball down.
And even then, Darnold was going too slow.
I...
Almost feel like we need a nickname for his... Maybe you can redeem yourself from Drake, maybe.
Go ahead.
For him?
He's crappy alter ego in big games.
Because it's like a Fight Club thing.
It's like when Ed Norton had the two identities.
Yeah.
But I don't know.
It's like, oh, it's Sam Darnold that's in here today.
It's blank.
Is it... I was thinking Spam Darnold?
That's good.
Or Stan Darnold?
Or... like his evil brother, Vic.
I don't know.
It needs to be something, but you kind of know it's just not Sam Darnold.
It's spam or scam, I think, right?
Scam Darnold.
That's really good.
Oh, today he was Scam Darnold.
That's great.
I like it.
There we go.
Now he's going to the Super Bowl because I said those words.
There you go.
Fox, after one of the turnovers, they played Give It Away, Give It Away, Give It Away.
Now, the Red Hot Chili Peppers song.
So that was really good.
Stafford's MVP case, took a slight hit today.
I thought he was favored.
I thought Allen was favored.
I thought Allen jumped him.
No, Stafford's plus 170.
15 for 2,830 yards.
Two TDs.
Yeah, maybe second.
Are the Rams the best team in the NFL to you now?
Because we thought before this game, whoever wins has a stake to the claim.
Or would you go Eagles?
I think they're the most complete team.
I do.
I think that's a very, yeah, it's a very close game if they play the Eagles.
But I think they could hang with them because they're tough.
And I mean, we saw it last year.
They played outdoors.
They were in it.
They won like overthrow away from tying it, I think.
So in the snow, I do like them.
I did want to point out, this is a weird time we live in.
That the Seattle kicker sets up for a 61-yarder.
Yeah, seems doable.
To win the game.
Seems doable.
Fandle only has the Rams at minus 138.
Like, if you went back in time, like five years ago, the Rams would have been minus 300.
You know, 10 years ago, it would have been minus... Because he made it.
He made it right before the timeout.
Yeah, right.
And then they did it again and he missed it.
So bizarre that that's only minus 138.
What do you think the stats are on that?
The guy makes the super long one, but it was called back for a timeout.
Has the guy ever made it again?
No, no.
Like ever in the history of football?
Would you kick it?
I wouldn't kick it the first time.
Yeah, but then you're in like a cat and mouse game because they could fake doing the timeout but then not do it.
And they're like, oh shit, they didn't call timeout.
Oh yeah, well you got to kick it.
No, I'm saying if you see the waving, all that, you know the play is dead.
I would pass on it.
Yeah, don't kick it.
Save your kick.
What are the conference odds?
If I was...
Gun to my head.
Eagles are plus 230.
Rams plus 310.
I'd probably take the Eagles because of the defense.
I mean, the game's in Philly.
It's going to be in Philly, right?
They're just going to roll up wins.
Yeah.
I think the East is a much tougher one.
Yeah.
One more improbable for you.
I like this.
Josh Allen had 45.8 fantasy points today.
How improbable is that to you at a score of 1 to 10?
I went against him in fantasy and still might win.
Oh, that's why you've screen grabbed it.
Oh, wow.
Yeah.
I was like, who's going against Josh Allen?
Oh, no, it's me.
In a week, what I needed to win, 45.8.
I don't remember a QB with 45.8.
Because you have to run a few in, right?
Yeah, you need at least two rushing touchdowns.
Yeah, and I would still give that like a four.
I don't know.
I had higher hopes for Tampa's defense.
That over-under was just mashed.
They had it.
They were...
They got the terrible Allen turnover.
Keon Coleman gets scratched this weekend.
Kincaid's not playing.
It was all set up for them.
They had the lead a couple times.
They took the lead back maybe three times, and then Buffalo just kind of pulled away.
It's funny because we were blowing Mayfield that first month.
Just blowing smoke at them.
I just feel like he misses throws sometimes now.
He's kind of moved back toward...
Two years ago, Baker, a tiny bit.
We should have a list of quarterbacks we think are injured.
I was just going to say.
Yeah.
Could Mahomes be injured?
Could Mayfield be injured?
Could Goffs?
I think something's wrong with his head.
I would believe if you gave me all the QBs and said one of these guys is hiding an injury, Mayfield would be my pick.
Baker's number one?
Yeah.
It's like, oh, he has a torn labrum or some sort of really bad injury we don't know about.
Because it also seems like he doesn't want to run with the same zest.
Right.
So he has a hairline fracture of his left collarbone or something like that.
But also maybe we give a guy like Baker credit, who just throws fourth quarter touchdown passes like it's nobody's business.
And we expect him to do that every week.
And so maybe the guy who's been traded six times, it's not going to happen every week.
Right.
Yeah, it was even... It was 21-20 at halftime, Buffalo.
Yeah.
It was 26-21, halfway through the third quarter, Tampa.
Right.
It was 26-24.
They had the ball with five minutes left in the third, and then that's when he threw that pick.
And then, yeah, they were up 32-31 with 13 minutes left.
They fumbled the punt, right?
They signed Hardman, and he fumbled the punt.
I mean, you're right.
It was all Josh Allen.
It's what...
Mahomes couldn't do like, and he was connecting on long passes too.
Like that stuff.
We hadn't even seen him do, um, you know, I don't know where Ernie Shavers came from.
We were just calling him Ernie.
Ernie Shavers.
That's my single I.
My Instagram algorithm just feeds me a lot of boxing and please keep keep it coming.
My favorite knockout that wasn't a knockout was Shavers knocking down Holmes and Holmes was getting up.
I don't think anyone's ever got up from a more ferocious punch ever in the history of the heavyweight division.
He goes, he he's dead for a second.
And then he just gets up and just was like, how did he get up from that?
And Shavers can't believe it.
And then Shavers is just throwing these crazy bombs, trying to take them out at home.
Somehow gets out of it and wins the fight.
But And to me Ernie Shaver's greatest moment was being the guest referee between Tommy Wildfire Rich and Bulldog Buzz Sawyer.
Oh my God.
Gordon Sully announcing it like it's a life-changing event.
So Tampa rushes for 202 yards.
They ran the ball down Buffalo's throat.
They ran for 5.2 a carry.
And they lost.
And they lost by double figures.
And they lost my Tampa plus 10 and a half tees.
But...
I think Tampa is the lead favorite to host the Shakey's game on Saturday.
Oh, interesting.
Because it's either them or whoever wins the AFC North, I think, is hosting the Shakey's game.
Well, it's typically an AFC South winner, but that team's good this year, right?
That's going to be the Colts, and that might be... I mean, the Colts might be a one seed.
They might not even have a Shakey's game.
Right.
Wow.
And it's not going to be the Pats.
They'll put the Pats on Saturday night because they always do.
Right.
And the Chargers, Denver, they'll get the night game or something.
Or they'll get some kind of late game, too.
It's like Sunday night or something.
Yeah, you're right.
Can I just say this?
Tampa, Green Bay, Shakey's game.
Your freaking team is 7-1 is crazy.
I don't think you could put a team that allowed 200 yards on the ground.
And it wasn't a surprise, too.
The Bundo and Heifetz were talking about it.
Like, this Syracuse Tucker guy, he's going to run for triple digits.
Like, all right, guys, calm down.
This is their team right now.
I don't know if you could put them at the top of the AFC odds-wise.
I don't think you can.
It's rushing.
It's too easy.
I genuinely think the Patriots would beat them in a playoff game.
I just think we would move the ball up and down the field on them.
And then Josh would have to basically do what he did today to hang with the Pats.
I think there's other teams that would be a bad matchup, but I think Buffalo is a good matchup for them.
All right, another one.
Justin Herbert got knocked out of a Chargers game and suffered a possible concussion.
What was the improbable skill for you on this one?
Because for me, it was a one.
Because you could see this coming last week and they can't block for him anymore.
And he was taking fucking massive hits.
And there's just no way he's making it through the season, I don't think.
I'll give it a two.
But I mean, your guy kind of plays the same brand of ball, doesn't he?
Who?
I can't say his name.
Drake, maybe.
Yeah.
I think May gets way better protection than this Chargers thing.
This Chargers thing was bad today.
These guys were like running 12, like basically running 10-yard dashes, just hitting him as he's throwing it.
They're plus 134 on FanDuel to miss the playoffs right now.
And I don't see the case for them making it.
Really?
They're 7-4.
They have Vegas at home next week.
So let's give them that one, 8-4.
But then they play Philly, KC.
At KC, at Dallas, Houston, at Denver.
I don't think they get to 10 wins.
At Dallas, Houston, that's two.
They should win two games.
Not if they're going to block like they blocked today.
No, I know.
It was bad today.
It was bad, and the injuries are no good, and everything else.
And by the way, you can run the ball down their throats.
It's not like they have a good defense.
I know they have offensive line injuries, but what's the excuse for the defense?
What was the excuse for Jacksonville just demolishing them?
And it was like Etienne and Tootin.
They're just like running all over them.
I took that game off.
I didn't even have that game on a TV by the end.
It was like 35 to six.
There was seven, there was seven early games.
And what would you like?
The other six all came down to like the last four minutes, at least that one was gone.
I think they, some of the networks left it too.
Um, I, I don't know.
I mean, they look good against the Steelers though.
I don't like to react this way.
Right.
Like they, what, what's, what's different about that.
And yet, Like every week, it's funny.
I was saying in the pregame show, we talk about Joe Alt for like four minutes.
The guy never touches the ball.
And yet it does today.
It really reared its ugly head.
How good he is.
Rodgers was horrible.
Like Rodgers was like Sanders today.
Like he was so bad.
It almost didn't give Pittsburgh a chance.
And I wonder if that kind of threw people off the scent.
I love the Jags today.
That was one of my favorite picks.
Herbert murdered my guillotine league.
I think I'm done.
I think I'm done.
I got like four points from him.
I think you're done too.
He was brought into the blue tent and interrogated by authorities for what he did to my fantasy team leading up to that moment.
Meanwhile, the Jags we got to shout them out in our continuing quest to not just talk about one team.
It's a pretty nice win.
They had a terrible loss last week, right?
Kind of loss.
You have that Davis Mills game where you're seizing my crater, and instead it went the other way.
And so now they have, what are they set?
They're seven and four now.
But they still have Arizona and Tennessee and the Jets left.
And Tennessee again.
They're making the playoffs now.
This is why we like them.
I know.
So what are they to make the playoffs?
I was looking.
Where are they?
They are minus 180 to make the playoffs now.
It's not a bad bet.
I think they get to get to 11 wins.
Such a weird time.
Such a weird team.
Well, if they get to 11 wins, then that's at least one of the bars.
If the Chargers somehow get to 11 wins which I don't think they will then that means the Chiefs basically have to get to 11 wins.
The Jags gave up 29 points to davis mills in the fourth quarter last week.
You know it's always.
I was trying to make a case for them like this is maybe one of the top five wins of all time, even though they beat the chargers in a great playoff game.
And then like wow, they made the afc championship three times.
But um, i still think this was better.
They almost had us yeah, yeah.
And heading in that fourth quarter was like, oh my god, this is it by 10.
Did they have you?
By double digits by 10.
It was like wow, blake bortles is gonna end us.
Um, last one, Jacoby Brissett was 45 for 57 for 452 yards and two touchdowns and still didn't cover any 18-point tees.
How is that for a problem?
I'm going to scale it one to 10.
I'm going to go with a solid 10.
The second part is a one.
Didn't he have 47?
Did you say 45?
He was 47 for 57 for 452 yards.
And...
They had the classic guy about to run in for the touchdown getting stripped of the goal line.
Yeah.
Which I've now bet on that team, I think, all five times it's happened this season.
I don't know what it is.
But San Francisco's defense is completely fraudulent.
Like, completely.
And that's a team that they're 7-4 and might be a playoff team.
Right?
Well, that was our seventh seed.
I'm sticking with that.
I'm sticking with them.
Their defense is awful.
Their next four is the easiest schedule in football, and then their last three is the hardest, I think.
So this was a perfect tune-up for Purdy.
And by the way, they got a lot of calls here.
I think the penalties were like 130 to 15 or something.
So they were better.
They'll push teams like this around.
Offensively, they look the best they've looked.
But they do have Carolina next week.
Then they go to at Cleveland the Sunday after Thanksgiving, which we've now...
I just don't think that's an easy game.
I don't care how easy it looks on the schedule.
There's nothing easy about it.
And they also have at Indianapolis and home Seattle end of the year.
So it's going to be either 10 or 11 for them.
Should Shanahan give Brissette a game ball?
Should he like walk to the other locker room?
I didn't see the press conference, but 47 completions.
My God.
Yeah, that's a lot.
All right.
I think that's it.
That's all I had for that game.
I like that game.
We should bring that back.
Cross-off teams, Jets, Brown, Tennessee, Miami, Saints, Vegas, Giants, seven.
Arizona, Washington, Cincy.
Can we add Cincy?
That's 10.
Yeah, yeah.
Would you put Minnesota on yet?
I think I'd put Atlanta before Minnesota.
That was my other question.
I think Atlanta's in.
Because Minnesota still plays a couple of these teams more.
I don't know if they are, but I think Atlanta is.
Whose fans will hate more?
Atlanta.
They do.
Yeah, they should.
And we see every week, we're like, let's just take them off the ledger of bets.
And then I'm like, oh, they have the second best defense.
Just awful.
I mean, they ought to be ashamed.
If they come close to making the playoffs, which I don't think they will.
They got skunked by the Panthers and then the rematch they gave up 448 yards to Bryce Young.
And three TDs and no picks.
Yeah.
And Carolina is now a half game back in the NFC South.
Come on.
What did the bundle say today in the shows?
18 to one.
At one point, the Panthers to win the division.
Yeah.
Um, by the way, for people listening our Sunday pregame show, we're now on the Fandles sports network.
So you can get on YouTube and get on Twitter or like there's 29 markets.
A lot of them are either East coast or the South or some in California, but there's it's a bunch of different markets, but uh, it's coming out at 11 o'clock now every day.
It's a great show.
We're really proud of it.
So, And the cousin's on there.
He's doing double duty.
I'm on.
Joe House gave out a 50-1 winner today with Kenneth Gainwell to score two touchdowns.
Come on, people.
That was 50-1?
50-1.
Wow.
Maniac.
Can I mention a quick Atlanta thing?
Sure.
Atlanta's been the team that I think has burned us the most this year.
They're in the running.
This decade, yeah.
They traded next year's number one for the 26th pick because they wanted to get the two pass rushers.
Cause they were like, look how smart we are.
We loaded up on the pass rush.
They're three and seven.
They traded that pick to the Rams, right?
The Rams have Atlanta's pick and that's going to be like the seventh pick in the draft.
Like what an amazing trade.
They basically gave up number 26, got a second rounder and Atlanta's first.
I mean, that's a fireable trade and the basketball, the guy's getting fired.
I don't know how the NFL works.
Howie Roseman will steal that pick somehow when no one's looking.
Yeah.
Somehow that's going to be in Philadelphia.
I, this, uh, I mean, those pass rushers are good.
Their defense is usually good.
That's why I picked them today, but not the.
I mean the fourth and four up 24, 19 under two minutes left and young hits Bryce Tremaine.
Like that's how, that's how they're losing these games.
Uh, you could tell that's where I lost my money.
Why would you bet the Falcons?
I don't know.
I don't know.
And the Panthers are what?
360 to make the playoffs?
They're not making it.
The Falcons.
They're this year's champagne room stripper that the buddy's going.
I think she likes me.
Yeah.
It's the Falcons.
Two more things really quick.
Mason Rudolph replaced Rodgers midway through an easy Steelers win over the Bengals.
And I didn't even realize it happened.
It was on one of my TVs.
The Steelers game was so forgettable.
And so kind of blah. that I didn't even realize there was a quarterback change for like a half hour.
So that happened.
I also forgot Texans-Titans was even happening early and didn't realize until I wanted to get out of the 35-6 game and saw there was a seventh game which I'd forgotten.
I was like, oh, Texans-Titans.
I put no thought into it.
I had nobody on it.
You didn't know it was early?
You didn't know it was on the schedule?
I forgot it was on.
And it wasn't in when I looked at YouTube TV.
I didn't see it.
Oh, even they had it.
And I just...
So I did catch the big Cam Ward drive, which I think was the best moment in his career.
But if that doesn't describe that game, I don't know what does.
You know when we're talking about getting alerts on our phone.
Like House has a thing now, if the Wizards are up double digits in the fourth, we should get an alert on our phone from FanDuel so that we can know immediately.
The Titans were favored in the second half.
Your phone should literally blow up after 10 seconds if you don't do anything about it.
It should shake and then blow up.
That's hilarious.
Last one is Miami in the Europe game, which I'm so proud.
Not only do I not bet on anymore, I don't even wake up till halftime anymore.
Like they could have their shitty my whatever Miami Washington matchup.
Um woke up at halftime, put you guys on and and had the game on the small left team with no left TV with no sound.
Um, Miami is now four and seven and they have new Orleans and the jets next.
And I, I I thought I was going to win every Miami under I had, and now I have to sweat out Miami under six and a half.
But they had an overtime interception where they deferred.
Right.
They won the toss at overtime.
They deferred in a 10 minute overtime.
And then Jordan Brooks, the linebacker, said Jack Jones said before the overtime interception if you all stop the run, Marriott is going to throw it to me because he can't throw.
And then Jack Jones picked off Marriott in overtime. after telling his teammates he was going to.
That's amazing.
What a show-off.
Marcus Mariota, everybody.
He's done it again.
He's still making history.
So maybe he was the worst quarterback today.
Think about it, like how exhausted defenses are in overtime, and they choose to go on defense first.
They could get another seven-minute breather, you know, if the other team gets a couple first downs.
Yeah, it's like a special level of being a mediocre to worst quarterback that a team would defer and give you the ball in overtime.
It's like the number one thing you want to do.
I mean, we were doing the pregame, so my takeaway is where nobody could score on fourth and goal from the one, and Tua wants to play in Jerusalem now.
So that's all I got from that.
Miami got stuffed twice on two different fourth and goals, and somehow still won.
So we have four two-loss teams, the Patriots, the Broncos, the Rams, and Philly.
I don't think any are cross-offs.
No cross-offs out of those.
Five, two lost teams.
And then we still in the East I mean I'm sorry in the AFC, let's say New England Denver Indy, Buffalo.
I'll make it.
It's four.
Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and the Chargers are all six and four.
Baltimore and KC and Houston, five and five.
So there's a lot of people left in the AFC.
Why do we, it's so funny, none of those two lost teams are just, The ones we're used to.
The Bills are minus 3,000 to make the playoffs.
I want to do a parlay with the Bills, the Ravens, and the Chiefs.
It's minus 102.
Do you lose that parlay?
Bills who and the Chiefs?
Bills, Ravens, Chiefs.
I don't trust the Ravens.
Wow.
I wouldn't put them in.
Who's going to steal the division from them?
Maybe the Steelers.
Mason Rudolph?
The Ravens are trying to tell us they're not good.
Every week, they're spelling it out.
They're holding up signs.
We're not that good.
I'm not seeing any signs.
All right.
Guess the lines.
You won last week.
Yeah.
I'm going to keep winning.
Did you have a good week?
No, I don't think so.
Okay.
There's some monster lines in here that I did not get right.
Thursday night is a surprisingly good game.
Bill's Texans in Houston.
It's a winner.
Josh Allen's not going to have six touchdowns in this one, I don't think.
He will not.
Houston's secondary is very, very, very, very good.
I'm interested to see if Texans can run the ball in this game.
I have the Bills minus three.
All right, I get it.
I said three and a half.
It's four and a half.
That's too high.
Sorry, it's three and a half.
It moved down.
But either way, I get it.
Okay, that's not as high.
Yeah.
Three and a half is fine.
It's a really good Thursday night game.
Well, so he'll be back, right?
Stroud?
I don't know.
He doesn't play on Sunday.
How is he going to play on Thursday?
No.
I don't know if that's a really good game.
I wouldn't play him.
Sunday marquee game.
Pretty obvious.
We're going to KC.
Chiefs-Colts.
Daniel Jones and Patrick Bahomes get to renew the rivalry.
It's either minus three or minus three and a half.
I went with the Chiefs minus three.
Just take it.
Whatever you got.
I said two and a half.
It is three and a half.
Okay.
Hmm.
Winnable game for the Colts.
I think they can run the ball on them.
Fresh off a bye.
Yeah.
A lot of pressure.
I actually like that the Chiefs are home for this, because I think if anything bad happens, the crowd's going to fucking get very sphincter tighty.
Yeah.
Almost would rather be on the road if I'm the Chiefs.
That's a really good game.
Great game.
It's an early game, huh?
Is that an okay Jim game?
It might be an okay Jim.
Yeah, of course.
Okay, Jim.
Only have two watchables.
Chicago at home for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Unclear if Rodgers is playing.
He had a slight fracture in his wrist.
Yeah, that's his left wrist.
And that's the wrist he uses to jerk off to UFOs.
So I don't even know.
I could see him not playing.
I don't know that to be true.
It's just a guess.
It's just a rumor.
Yeah.
I have the Bears favored by three at home against the Steelers.
You nailed it.
I went low.
Yeah.
I went one and a half.
It is three.
It's exactly three.
That seems like Mason Rudolph.
You know what this is?
This is the horseshoe up the asshole Super Bowl.
Right.
They should start marketing it that way.
It's two teams that have just pulled horseshoes out of their fucking rectums for three straight months.
And now it's a horseshoe battle.
Of course, there's rivalry with Rodgers and the Bears, right?
We own them, all that stuff, he would say.
So it's probably better off the Steelers go with Mason Rudolph.
A little score to settle there.
Oh, actually, no, I'm thinking of Trubisky.
Never mind.
I'm out of it.
I think it's fine to get Trubisky confused with the other guy.
I just spent hours with my father.
I'm like, please don't.
Why don't turn it?
Yeah, we're going to go through the weekend you had in a little bit.
This is an amazing performance by you just to be coherent on this.
Eagles at Dallas, your favorite team.
I don't know about that.
You can be five, five and one after this game.
Stop the nonsense there.
I'm so mad at this line.
I put this line, I fucking rammed it into the Vegas zone.
Like dead center, minus five, Vegas zoned it up.
Well, I said six because that's where it should start.
Because one's a very good team that we think is going to win the conference, arguably.
And one is a team that doesn't belong in either conference.
And it's three and a half.
So you get it.
Wow.
I mean, they're full of shit with this.
That feels a little too low.
Three and a half.
By the way, can I just go as good as the late games were this week?
Yeah.
Next week, late afternoon.
Browns, Raiders, Jags, Cardinals, Falcons, Saints, Cowboys, Eagles.
Oh, my Lord.
The Eagles go up like 13-0.
It's a poop fact that's special.
Really bad.
Yeah.
Fairly watchable.
Those only have three.
Pats at Bengals.
Bengals.
Wow.
It's not a good football team.
They're not.
That's why I love Pittsburgh today.
That defense is just, eventually you'll get to them.
117 points in three games before this.
This is watchable because their defense allows nice big plays for you.
I have the Patriots.
So I put some thought into this one.
I think it's going to be Patriots minus six and a half.
What is it?
I said eight.
That's seven.
Why is it seven?
You're the best team in the universe.
Why is this since he loses to everybody?
I think you can throw in the pats.
You could throw on them?
Yeah.
I just think they can hang around in this game.
I mean, it's going to have to be flag.
You don't give up 60-yard rush games, right?
So it's going to have to be all Flacco.
Jags at Cardinals. and the Jags are going to be favored.
And this is a classic, let's be careful out there on the Jags.
Trusting them, betting real money on them, assuming that they're going to just cruise through this.
I would just be careful all the way around.
I have Jags minus three.
All right, you get it.
I said one and a half, and it's two and a half.
I'm cashing out now.
Sorry, Jacoby.
Jacoby's my biggest fan of Guest Alliance.
I don't like the way this is going.
You tap it out?
I'm going to cash out, I think.
I guess it's the same thing.
You like this?
Did you see the UFC fights last night?
I missed them, no.
I didn't get to see them.
I know there's a brawl.
Well, the last two were supposed to be these great championship fights.
You knew in two minutes what was going to happen in each one.
The female fight, just domination.
Then Islam, just domination.
Just domination.
The guy is like... I just don't know what you would do if you had to fight him in the octagon.
I don't know what... He lulls you to sleep.
He does stand up.
And you're like, oh, cool.
And then all of a sudden you're on the ground, on your back.
And you're like, wait, I thought we were doing stand-up.
And he just does it every round.
Yeah.
That's what you're saying.
This is like you beat me in Guest Alliance?
I could see that.
I'm Islam.
Yeah.
Domination.
Not good.
Packers, Vikings. in green Bay.
And I think this goes into Vegas zone as well.
I have Packers minus five and a half.
All right.
I had five and a half.
Also it's six and a half.
Hmm.
You see any teasers you like New England and green Bay.
Hard to think JJ McCarthy is going to go into Lambeau and do anything, but yeah.
Five poop fact, the games, never a good sign for the weekend lines home for the giants.
I put that in double figures.
Lions minus 10.5.
Too low?
That's the one I have to steal from you.
I said 11.
It's 10.5.
You're looking at these ahead of time.
You know you're not supposed to look at these ahead of time.
Don't look at these.
And then we check versus your guess.
We cross reference.
Don't look at them.
Falcons at the Saints.
How embarrassing is it that the Falcons are favored in this game?
Because I think they are.
I'm going to say Falcons minus two and a half.
Oh, come on.
That's what I said.
It is two and a half.
We both get it.
Anyone who bets on this game should see a psychiatrist.
I'm staying away, except it's probably the best four o'clock game.
Go see a psychiatrist if you're betting this game.
Raiders Browns in Vegas.
So this is the road Browns who are terrible, always.
Possibly with Shador Sanders.
And I still don't think the Raiders are favored by three.
I said Raiders two and a half.
I had two and a half also.
It is three.
Is this an FU game for Shador?
Like Vegas passed on him like six times.
I mean, everybody passed on him like four times, but they had like back-to-back picks.
I think every game is an FU game for him.
The whole league passed on him over and over again.
They had that spot where they had like three picks and like added 25 and everybody thought they would take them.
Seems like everybody was right.
Ravens home for the Jets.
This has to be double figures ravens minus it's in baltimore.
I have ravens minus 10 and a half.
Okay, i get this.
Uh, i said 13, it's 14 and a half.
Yeah, that's stupid.
I mean i, i get it, but i just don't think the ravens are explosive enough to carry a line that big.
What is the evidence?
They settle for field goals over and over again.
Yeah, the jets aren't like.
Jets aren't terrible like.
They hung around with the pats.
I thought They're coming on 10 days rest.
They scored and then they were dumb.
And even against Cleveland, they had two kick returns, punt return, then they were done.
They just, they can't, maybe second half is the way to play this.
Fields is like cause.
You watch him and you're like, oh man, if he was only accurate, he'd be really good.
It's like if it was a standup comedian who had everything except none of the jokes were funny.
Right, right, right.
Ah, if your jokes were funny, you'd be fucking awesome, man.
Everything else is so good.
Yeah, right?
And just each punchline sucks.
You twist balloon animals like no one's business.
Yeah, it looks so good up there.
The way you handle the stage, like I like your outfit.
Seahawks Titans is in Tennessee.
And I really wanted to give this the 10.5, but I went 9.5 for the Seahawks.
Seahawks 9.5.
I did give it 10.5, and that was way light.
It's 12 and a half.
Oh, my Lord.
Let me just do something for fun here.
Count the wins?
No, I lost already.
But if you do... You're doing a 13-pointer?
Yeah, because... 14, 13-pointer?
Oh, man.
Seahawks, Ravens?
I think you have to do the 13-pointer because it's minus 265 if you just take the three favorites there.
That's no good.
That's not going to get it.
Maybe at the Packers.
I don't know.
Sunday night is a decent game in there, Sal.
Yeah.
Oh, Mike, we finally got a decent game.
Come on, don't screw this up, Baker.
Rams home for the Bucs.
I have Rams minus six and a half against the Bucs.
That's exactly freaking right.
It went up.
It was six, and it went to six and a half.
I had four and a half.
You get that.
Poor Baker.
It does seem like a tough game every time.
Doesn't he play in a terrible division?
When does he ever play his own shitty division mates?
This is his first play schedule, right?
Yeah.
I guess so.
It's just hitting him hard at once there.
So we have who the Panthers play.
Oh, they're on Monday night.
That's the next game.
I mean, Tampa's minus 600.
They're just going to keep losing and it doesn't really matter.
Well, how about this?
To win the division.
If the Rams beat the Bucks on Sunday, the Panthers could be playing for first place in San Francisco on Monday night.
A team that you can throw the ball on.
That's insane.
I mean, I was looking at, what are they, to make the playoffs, they're plus 360, the Panthers.
What are they for the division?
Division, they're plus 500.
They're not going to make the playoffs, not the division.
Maybe I got that backwards.
Sometimes they screw that up.
Yeah.
But wait, hold on.
I saw their games.
Now I'm holding this up.
Whatever.
They're not making it.
You're out.
There you go.
You see?
See how I did that?
No, wait a minute.
Where is it?
I had the whole thing listed.
You do?
Who is it?
Oh, okay.
They have the Bucs twice, the Rams, and the Seahawks.
And they're six and five.
So they have to win four games, Bucs twice, Rams, Seahawks.
Well, what's interesting is they have the Bucs in week 16 at home and then the Bucs at Tampa in week 18.
So if they're within a game... Oh, so you're saying they could take a wild card.
That's interesting.
No, I don't think they have any chance to take the wild card.
I think they can win the division, though.
Oh, well, then the Bucs will play hard that week, that 18.
Yeah.
Yeah, no.
Can't do it.
I have the Niners favored by five and a half against Carolina.
No, I'm in San Francisco.
You get whatever.
It's seven.
I have five.
Don't do the whatever.
Then it makes it less fun for me to beat you.
I don't like when you do whatever.
God, I needed to win three in a row.
You won 11-6, and you're up 8-4 on the year.
Listen, Patrick Mahomes may be a 500 quarterback, but I'm still good at guest lines.
Good.
Today's Parent Corner presented by Uber Eats.
Let's be real.
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Uber Eats is here to deliver it to you all season long.
Hold on.
Grapes, watermelon, and low-cal popcorn for me.
Fit Sal coming up.
That's what I did on Uber Eats today.
There you go.
Really?
Yeah, my neck is so much thinner now from last week.
We're doing a special Parent Corner this week.
We're not going to talk about our parents.
We're going to talk about our friend Cleto.
So go ahead.
Oh, all right.
Well, Cleto Escobedo, I've known him since I was six.
He's my cousin Jimmy's best friend.
And he was the band leader for 23 years.
And he grew up, Jimmy grew up across the street from Cleto.
And he had a very cool, he was very cool growing up.
First of all, he played the saxophone like no one's business.
His voice was amazing.
It's standing ovations in like high school and college and any, anytime he went on tour.
And, uh, he was like a womanizer at like 10 years old and just a true rock star.
And Jimmy and I would listen to him.
Like I.
I I spoke at the Memorial and I was like it was like a, an alien going through his um fitness regime.
Like we had no idea what he was talking about, tongue kissing girls and everything.
And then he's like, he actually is a rock star.
He like toured with Paul Abdul and like Paul Abdul's greatest song, Forever Your Girl, the best part of her greatest song.
Like girl, you know I love you and I always will.
Sorry, Cleto, I didn't do it.
That was Cleto, not on the record.
Yeah, Cleto sang it.
But when they were on tour, they would do it.
And he toured with Paul Abdul and Mark Anthony before Jimmy brought him on.
Well, wait, go backwards.
Yeah, I don't know how much you remember.
When Jimmy was friends with him initially, Cleto was a little bit older.
Yeah, a year older.
And you said in your tribute, He was like your Mexican Fonzie.
He was just way cool.
You guys were just learning every single thing about life from him.
Yeah.
So three years when you're kids is like 20 years.
Oh, yeah.
Somebody's so far ahead in so many different ways, and he kind of adopted everybody.
Jimmy was following him.
He was a catcher in Little League.
Jimmy was a catcher.
Jimmy couldn't play the sax, so he played the clarinet, but he wanted to be in the band.
So yeah, there was that.
He was super cool.
I said he had this Betamax because his father, who was also a great sax player, gave up his career so he could help raise Cleto with his mom in Las Vegas and became a butler in Caesar's Palace and became Sammy Davis Jr'.
's personal butler because Sammy had known his band.
And Sammy became friends with the family, gave him this Betamax, and we'd watch old fights on it.
You talk about Larry Holmes and all of them, but even Muhammad Ali was his favorite.
And it was just everything was cool about him.
He was just a rock star for his whole life.
I mean, I don't know.
I could tell a million stories, but I spoke in front of 600 people.
That happened yesterday.
There was a mass and then there was a whole memorial service.
That was about as high of a production as you're going to get from a memorial service.
Incredible.
Jimmy's staff went overboard for three days, did this whole two-hour tribute, had this 15-minute highlight video of all these different things from the show with Cleto, and then a bunch of speakers um, all of whom are great.
You did an awesome job.
I was really proud of you.
Thank you.
Um, Michael McDonald came out.
Yeah.
Jimmy comes out at the end.
It's like we wanted to get a special musical guest and couldn't believe this person was going to come out and do this.
I'm just sitting in my seat.
Like I'm ready for literally any musician.
And then Michael McDonald, one of my all time favorites, came out and uh and sang something for Cleto, but he sang the song piece.
He was so great.
And like my cousin, Jonathan, who also spoke, he was great.
Said like we're telling all these stories about cledo and women and his poor wife is there and it's like it was all before he met her and everything.
But she has to go through this and here it's not bad enough, but she uh, and we're talking about in cledo, and then he took this girl to a place called the soak and poke and it's like, and then it's like michael mcdonald coming, it was like the, my cousin john, that said like it was like the adult entered the room.
He's like okay guys, i'm gonna tell you about death.
And I'm going to tell you about that.
And he spoke fondly about Cleveland.
Unbelievable speech.
It was like just off the cuff, this unbelievable speech about life.
And then he sang a song called peace.
And, um, it was like a two hour thing.
Then everybody went to, uh, to next door to Jimmy's where Jimmy films, the show and the backstage.
It was like 700 people there.
And a bunch of our friends catered a bunch of the food, like Chris Bianco.
And, uh, it was basically almost everybody who worked for the show in the last, 23 years.
It was really weird.
Like seeing people like KP, our friends, like just that grew up in the green room and like, here they are.
And it was just like a, a terrible occasion to gather for, but it was really like, or your life like flashed before your eyes like that.
Wow.
That was like 25 years ago.
Everybody was.
I know when people die it's obviously you're always like I can't believe this happened, but Pluto is 59.
And you know, What else do we have to say?
I'm getting choked up, so I'm going to let you keep talking.
I like this.
I've never seen you vulnerable like this.
He died on my Uncle Frank's birthday, and my Uncle Frank died on his birthday.
My Uncle Frank died first, obviously.
And that's just amazing.
It's one of a hundred coincidences.
And another coincidence is the Cowboys, our favorite team, I would go with him to Oxnard.
It's not bad enough that we had to watch them on TV. an hour and 40 minutes away in Oxnard.
They set up training camp during the summer and we'd watch them from behind a fence and we'd walk away like yeah, they're going to be good this year.
And they were all always bad.
It was terrible.
Always shaking our heads on Mondays.
But anyway, the Cowboys are in Vegas tomorrow where he grew up laying three and a half points.
And I urged everyone in the crowd to bet 10000 on the Cowboys, because that's how Clito would want it.
Like I said, I don't care your financial situation.
Just if you love Clito, you'll do it.
I don't think they'll take us up on it.
Well, his two teams were the Dodgers and the Cowboys.
Yeah, one of them came through.
It looked like he wasn't going to make it a few weeks ago and then kind of rallied back a little bit.
And rallied back and was watching all those Dodger games.
And they had that amazing run.
They win the World Series.
Some of the stuff about talking about family and how close that family was.
His dad has been in the band the entire time.
And it hasn't missed was there in the show at the day after he died.
It's going to be in the show on Monday.
Right.
You know, it's I can't even look at him.
It's just so sad.
He is the nicest guy in the world.
Right.
And forget it.
Forgetting even about the backstory of what he gave up to you know.
And then Jimmy brings them together for 23 years.
They're playing side by side.
But I have to say it freaks me out.
Just time going by.
We saw the montage.
I think you and I talked about it like he was. a little older than us when the show started.
And now he's this little old man, right?
In his 80s.
Cleto, right?
Yeah.
Cleto Senior, yeah.
Senior, yeah, yeah.
So, I mean, I can't say enough about those people.
It's very sad obviously, of the kids and the wife and then the extra layer of the parents who were, I mean, this family.
Would they'd call each other when they weren't working together, like every 20 minutes, to see how, like none of them thought the other was a pain in the ass about it.
That was just how they operated, you know?
So um yeah, it was weird talking to different people about it yesterday because you know we, when we all started with the show I don't know I was, I was 32.
How old were you?
You were like, you're a year younger than me.
So you're 30 or 31.
Yeah.
We had a lot of people who were in their twenties.
We had people in their early twenties, like Dana's wife was 22.
Right.
You know, and you see all those pictures and it, and in some ways it was a million years ago.
And then in other ways it wasn't.
Right.
You know, so, um, I want to say something about his dad, but I'm not going to get through it.
So I'm going to move on.
Let's wrap up.
Want to wrap up Parent Corner?
Yeah, whatever you want to do, man.
I'm trying to think of some sort of terrible Ben story that I could tell to loosen it up.
I don't have anything.
My kids were very upset.
I think that was their first funeral.
They don't like it.
They're not fans.
It turns out funerals are fun.
We should mention his daughter went up.
How old is his daughter?
14, 13?
She's like 16 now, Jesse.
16, yeah, yeah.
She went up and gave a really great, I just don't know how she did it.
There was like a thousand people there.
I would have been completely terrified, but talked about you know, I don't know, really talked eloquently about her dad.
And also she's a singer.
Like she was like yeah, you know she's like yeah, she's a singer and she's got the bug, and they had that in common.
And yeah, you're right.
Let's end this.
Uber Eats is like, what happened?
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So I think the band's going to keep going.
Cleto Senior is going to still be in the band.
Amazing, yeah.
And the show is going to be on Monday.
I don't know.
And then you had to prepare.
We had you to prepare to speak in front of 1500 people yesterday.
He went to host the show that we have this game show in the morning, watch football and then do this.
I don't know how he did it.
It's all right.
I'm going to go to bed for three and a half days after this.
That's how I did it.
Well, that, so the irony of all of this is Cleto Vegas guy, Cowboys favorite team.
And then tomorrow the Cowboys are at Vegas.
That's it.
And there's been a lot of weird signs in the last couple of days including uh, Jimmy said there was a rainbow and where he lives this morning and a whole whole bunch of His birthday was 8-23.
So I'm going to hit all the weird coincidences if not.
8-23 adds to 31.
Cowboys, 31 exact points is 11-1.
So at least do that if you're not going to bet the $10,000 on him.
I feel like the Cowboys will win tomorrow.
I do like them.
All right, let's wrap it up.
Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well.
Thanks to you, Sal.
Good to see you.
Good job by you as always.
Good job by you, buddy.
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