NFL Free Agency Predictions, an NBA Power Poll, and Tatum’s Return With Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, Michael Pina, and Joe House | The Bill Simmons Podcast

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I hope you're checking out CR month on the rewatchables.

We did scar this week.

Fargo's coming on Monday, uh, to live and die in LA is going to be the third movie.

And then we're having everybody vote on the fourth movie.

It's a, it's basically an all week thing.

We yesterday, the Goonies won the, uh, won the Wednesday vote Thursday voters today.

It seems like the other guys is going to win that one.

And then we have one more vote tomorrow.

The three winners will face off over the weekend.

I think the Goonies is going to win, but some other people think the other guys will probably win.

We'll see who comes out of the last seat.

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And, uh, I think we're going to blow out CR month is where this is leading.

CRM has been such a, such a smashing success.

I think it's going to be maybe more like the San Gennaro festival, something like that.

We'll have food, we'll have musical acts, we'll have um barely recognizable actors from crime thrillers from the nineties two thousands and the eighties, just kind of wandering around.

You just like, look over and be like, I think that's Robert Patrick.

Um, I'll keep you posted.

Maybe next year, CR month just becomes a much bigger thing.

Uh, Jason Tatum seems like he's coming back on Friday and taping this on a Thursday afternoon and uh, all signs, as I said, on Sunday, are pointing to Jason Tatum coming back against the Dallas Mavericks at seven o'clock Eastern time and Cooper flags first game in Boston Massachusetts.

He grew up in Maine.

Uh, I think the entire state of Maine is going to be at this game, along with the entire Sloan conference.

I don't know where they fit everybody, but uh, I really hope Cooper Gets a feel for the city, for the arena.

Maybe he can look for apartments and condos for when he officially signs with the Celtics in 2031 and comes home.

We have a spot for him.

But I really hope it goes well for him in Boston.

And when he's on the Celtics in 2031 we'll just be like yeah, remember that time when his first game was Tatum's first game back.

And now Tatum's passing the torch to him as the newest member of the Boston Celtics.

Yeah, I think that's going to happen.

We need Jason Tatum, though.

The Celtics got waxed by Charlotte last night.

Charlotte is now just a monster.

We're going to talk about them a little bit later in the podcast with Michael Pena and Joe Haas.

We're going to do an NBA Power Poll.

Coming up first, though, the Dannys.

Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly.

We're going to be talking about football, NFL, all hell breaking loose over these next couple weeks.

We're going to talk about things we're looking for, crazy predictions, all kinds of things.

We're going to take a break.

Pearl Jam, and then the Dannys.

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All right.

Thursday afternoon.

So if anything happens after we do this, don't blame us.

The Danny's are here.

Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, two thirds of the ringer fantasy football show.

A great, great podcast.

Craig couldn't be Craig's too big now.

I don't know if you guys did you hear about how Ari Emanuel is trying to turn Pat McAfee into an actor, like an action star.

Did you read this story?

I did not see that.

It was like Steven Seagal became an actor like that way.

I don't know if you guys know this, but Craig was the second choice.

If Pat McAfee said no, they were just, you know, the actors get jacked.

Like when John Krasinski, like they're thinking Craig gets jacked.

He just becomes the next Jack Ryan.

Like, who knows?

Well, it's funny you say that because I heard at the end of your show with Matt Bellany which was great breaking down the Paramount deal.

You said that you and Matt split the custody to Craig.

We did.

I guess we just get the dregs.

What does that make us?

Yeah, you're like half brothers on a WB sitcom where Craig just kind of floats in and out of your family.

We have a lot of football stuff going on.

The only real shocker to me so far, and I don't know.

I asked you guys to make a list of the top thing because right now it's we're heading into football time right now.

Like trades are starting to happen.

The free agency is really kicking off in a week, but we know it's going to start sooner than that.

Guys are getting waves like Stefan Diggs got wave today.

And we have a big picture sense of shit that's going down.

Two things that happen.

I asked you guys to make a list and these two things are probably in the list, so sorry.

But the two things that I noticed were Buffalo getting receiver early, getting on DJ Moore.

And then where I want to start are the Chiefs.

Do they care about 2026 what?

What was the deal with the McDuffie trade?

What'd you think DK?

Like what, if?

Why would you trade a star cornerback in his mid twenties that you clearly need in the AFC?

What is the deal?

Yeah.

First of all, look at high fits his body language.

He is just absolutely loving this because we, Craig and I, have kind of been giving him shit for um we, we're not quite ready to write off the chiefs in 2026, but high fits, kind of is.

And so high fits is absolutely loving this right now.

I just want to point that out.

Um, I think it comes down to a number of things.

They have to redo a lot of contracts.

They're probably going to have to release a bunch of guys.

Half of their starting lineup from last year is pretty much free agents at this point.

So they have a lot of issues with their cap.

Well, it's the pay-the-paper thing from the seven-year run.

You're on where you keep rolling the check over for dinner, and now it's due.

Exactly.

And they have a history of kind of moving on from corners, then developing younger guys.

And so that's probably a big part of this.

But yeah, basically high fits kind of has been laying this out.

It's sort of a mini rebuild this year for them.

Yeah.

It's a shadow rebuild.

The chiefs are shadow rebuilding in plain sight.

I mean, I, I, The Chiefs equaled Super Bowl from 13 months ago.

The Chiefs are going to probably turn over more than half of the starters in that game from 13 months ago.

I know the Chiefs got their butts kicked, but they still made the Super Bowl, and that team's gone.

And really what I think is happening with the Chiefs Bill is that the Tyree Kill trade gave the Chiefs an extra four-year window.

Because that was four years ago, and the Chiefs turned Tyree Kill into a bunch of picks.

Kansas City hit every single pick.

Like the 2022 draft alone, Kansas City got seven starters, five on defense.

And I could go through all of them, but they're the guys you've never heard of.

Everyone knows Mahomes.

Everyone knows Kelsey.

Everyone knows Chris Jones.

People don't know about Brian Cook.

And Trent McDuffie made it all platoon.

But there's guys like Jalen Watson and Brian Cook and all these guys down the line that started in a secondary for Kansas City that made three straight Super Bowls.

All of these guys, the Chiefs are setting back into free agency.

They're not bringing any of them back.

So they're kind of doing it again where Trent McDuffie, the trade compensation they got isn't that far off from what they got from Tyreek Hill four years ago.

So they're doing the same thing where they're cashing players in for a bunch of picks.

And they're like, well, now we just have to hit all the picks again and we're good.

Call that whatever you want.

But if you're like, well, if we just hit all our picks again, we're a contender.

I would call that a rebuild, honestly.

I don't think it's a bad strategy, but the Chiefs have a five-year window they're thinking about with Mahomes because he's 30, and the Rams are thinking about a one- to two-year window because they have Matt Stafford.

So I think that's what that Chiefs-Rams trade was.

Well, you left out the ACL.

Right.

I know he's going to come back, but he's going to have a brace on, I would assume.

I'll do it so you don't have to.

He's not going to have the same mobility that he would have had in his mid-20s.

Bill, I'll do it so you don't have to.

You have us here on Jason Tatum Eve, so thank you for that.

But this is the Chiefs' Jason Tatum season.

I won't make you make the comparison because I know everyone will get mad, but it's a little bit like the Jason Tatum Celtics season.

Well, in football it seems like the ACL recovery just goes faster, and I don't really know the reasons for that.

For basketball versus – like Kyrie's not coming back, and he had his injury over a year ago.

In football.

We've seen these guys come back after like seven months, which I don't – they come back from Achilles faster.

It must have something to do with the cleats and the grass most of the time and all that stuff.

Science research, the inability to catch performance-enhancing drugs, now that we'll look back on later in decades.

Right.

Maybe getting mailed to your wife, which we've seen in the past.

Danny, on FanDuel right now.

Chiefs not the favorite to win the AFC West, which has to be the first time since Alex Smith was there.

And they were probably even favorites the last year he was there.

Chargers are plus 170, Chiefs plus 180, and Broncos plus 210.

I was surprised.

I thought the Chiefs would be the third in the pecking order on that one.

But I think it's just respect for the infrastructure.

The bigger thing for me, which we talked about a few weeks ago on this pod.

I thought they were terribly coached last year.

And I just thought they seemed really sloppy all year.

And it went beyond just like, hmm, maybe we need some different players.

And I don't think that's going to change at all.

I'm shorting the Chiefs.

So you're not shorting the Chiefs yet, Danny?

That's where my mind is now.

I know we don't have to decide until August.

To be totally clear, the argument was who is more likely to be in the Super Bowl next year, the Ravens or the Chiefs?

And Craig and I took the Chiefs and thought Heifetz was crazy for picking the Ravens, considering some of the ways that they've ended the season, their seasons over the last however long.

Um, but i do think number one that was the reason i think they got rid of matt nagy and went to eric, the enemy exactly what you were saying in terms of like, the coaching.

I think the enemy is known as more like a drill sergeant type coach where he's gonna give him hard coaching, maybe be a little bit more on the fundamentals and things like that.

But yeah, i mean, The more that we get into this and the more I look at their cap and how many free agents they have, plus the Rishi Rice news that came out recently, his future is a little bit up in the air right now.

I'm kind of... My argument is feeling quite a bit weaker in terms of the Chiefs ending it back up.

It's also possible to not like either team.

I don't really like what the Ravens have brewing either.

So all right for you guys.

I could give you seven wins, or I could give you 12, and you had to pick one.

Which one would you pick?

For Kansas City, I would pick 12.

You would pick 12 over seven.

No, I would pick seven.

I would pick seven wins over 12 for this season.

I think they'll get back to Super Bowl contender if they hit their drafts, but I don't think Kansas City is a 12-win team.

Do we think that Andy Reid is just over the hill as a coach or do we still believe in him?

I thought there were a lot of signs last year that it wasn't looking great.

And we've seen these coaches hit late 60s, early 70s.

Like Pete Carroll, you had him forever.

He was a really good coach.

Last couple of years, you and Mina were complaining about him.

Mina denies it, but she was.

We have the receipts.

Then he goes to Vegas and he's terrible and he just kind of lost it, which I think is conceivable.

I still think i'd go 12, but wow, so you would take 12 over the seven okay yeah, I feel like we're writing them off way too quickly.

I mean, look at what they've done in the last 10 years.

I'm not writing his career off.

I'm writing the season off in ACL.

I mean, even bringing Travis Kelsey back is just a legacy thing.

If he wasn't as famous or as accomplished as he was, they probably might not even want Kelsey back, considering what he's done.

I mean, I don't know.

I think he's kind of a shell of himself, but I don't know.

Andy Reid's 68 years old, and sometimes the league passes you by.

I think there's a six-year window where what Andy Reid's really good at was the meta that you want to win in the NFL with.

But now that they're back to under center running, that's not what Andy Reid's good at.

Well, they do have that ninth pick and you guys are diving into the draft now.

And, uh, I saw our friend meet on TV, pushing the running back.

Number nine, like right around where you don't want to eat.

I just feel like the what happened with the Raiders last year, I would just never take a running back in the top 10.

It just would just be, I don't care if it's Bo Jackson.

I think I've just landed at that point in 2026, and you would have to immediately be the best guy at your position for me to consider it.

There's so many other ways to patch together.

Anyway, I'm going seven wins for them.

And I'm fully ready for the full rollercoaster ride by July.

It's like, you know, I'm kind of intrigued by the Chiefs.

And then I'm ready to ride on the rollercoaster with them.

We already have an idea for an episode we're going to do in July, and it's going to be that week.

I think the Odyssey comes out in July.

We're going to do the wax in our ears like we're not listening to any training camp hype, like we're just not listening to the siren songs of training camp.

Who was the worst guy last year for the fantasy training camp hype?

Who was the guy that roped us in and then drove us into a telephone pole?

Maybe Justin Fields.

See, I never believed that one.

For fantasy in particular, I would say he was a big-time sleeper.

Does Buka count, even though he was great for eight weeks and then just became a serial killer for a fantasy team?

There's a list of guys that I'm always like.

People got hurt and they don't give them credit for being hurt.

I think, in terms of hype being roped in.

Frankly, I think the teams that won the offseason last year were the Patriots and the Raiders.

And the Patriots made the Super Bowl and the Raiders hit the first pick.

And I think that's also the story to free agency to me.

It's like some teams can go in and do what the Patriots did, but She usually liked the Raiders.

So gent, genty, maybe it was another one.

Okay.

Yeah.

I asked you guys for a list.

Get us ready for the next, what do we think?

It's really like three weeks, but it's ultimately eight days when all the shit goes down.

When we find out like, wow, they gave Malik Willis 90 million.

Oh my God.

We're going to find out.

So may I, you made a list.

Let's just go from top to bottom.

Who'd you have?

Number one.

Hi Fitz.

Uh, Sure, I'll go first.

I think outside the Chiefs thing, I think the number one thing I think is Kyler Murray is going to sign somewhere for the veteran minimum.

And I don't know if people are ready for that.

This is a wild story, I think.

So just the prologue, if people are listening and kind of shocked.

Arizona is going to cut Kyler Murray and Kyler Murray is going to sign somewhere for the vet minimum, which is like one year, one point three million dollars.

The Cardinals are going to.

It's kind of like what Russell Wilson got a couple of the Broncos and got paid basically to play for the Steelers.

Cardinals are going to basically pay Kyler $37 million to play for his next team.

And Kyler, whatever you as, as a in the words of a wise old man that I have worked for, I think Kyler Murray has been so overrated that he's now actually underrated.

And Kyler Murray for $1.3 million is a league tilting player.

Steven Ruiz has done a great job writing about this at the ring or the last month where We can go through the teams.

But I think, Kyler Murray, I think there's four teams that make sense.

And I think the list is short.

I think it's the Vikings, which is the favorite.

And then there's the Dolphins, the Falcons, maybe.

And I actually think the shadow team is the Steelers.

But I think it's going to be one of those four teams.

It's funny because I thought you were going to say the Panthers is one of the four teams.

Basically, just like, is he just better than Bryce Young?

What are we doing?

Or are they the same type of quarterback and we could have both and just let them fight it out?

You agree with those four teams Danny had, DK?

Yes, I think.

I personally think Minnesota has the most hype right now and it's kind of the most momentum.

It kind of makes a lot of sense that he would do that because of the weapons around him.

They're going to be playing in a dome.

The coach in particular, I think, is the big thing here.

Kevin O'Connell.

So the Vikings are kind of... Yeah, he did so good with J.J.

McCarthy.

I know, but if you look at everybody else... That just makes me... How bad is J.J.

McCarthy if he couldn't get anything out of him after.

Well, it seems like they're out on him, right.

That's been a lot of the tea leaves being dropped.

We read between the lines on everything they've said that they're not going to be relying on him this year.

It's kind of like that thing where we're not giving up on him, but we're just not going to rely on him right now.

I've been making this joke forever on Pods and Columns.

Your QB is your relationship.

Yeah.

This is like if, if high fits is in a relationship right now.

And if he was just like, yeah, no, it's still, we're still, but I'm, I'm going to date other people.

But like, then, you know, it's over.

That's what it's like with McCarthy.

You can't dabble around and try to bring in all these other people while also claiming or we know how this is going to go.

This was the Colts last year with Anthony Richardson.

The moment they put the moment it was out there, it was a wrap.

And this is going to be a wrap.

What are you saying?

That the Vikings, the Kevin O'Connell, giving the one hour meetings with JJ McCarthy every week?

With the year he was out, that wasn't enough time.

I think he's looking back at that now as a giant sunk cost.

And he could have just played Fortnite or learned a skill, maybe played the clarinet.

He could have learned things, maybe, maybe gotten a better appreciation of jazz.

I don't know.

I, I guess I'm coming back to whether Kyler Murray is good or not.

And you mentioned the overrated underrated thing.

If it's like.

I've just never thought he was a top 15 guy, like a guy you could win multiple rounds with.

I still go back to that.

What was it?

The Rams or the Seahawks when they lost by like 30 in that wildcard game on a Monday night.

And I talked myself into him as I think I had the Cardinals and you just knew right away.

It was like, Oh, it was two years ago.

Well, cause this season was also, I think, a Thursday night football game where uh Sam Darnold had a game-winning drive against the Cardinals as a Seahawk.

And then Sam Darnold went and won the Super Bowl.

I know you've blocked out the Super Bowl.

Again, DK's a Seahawks fan.

I wasn't talking about Super Bowl-winning quarterback Sam Darnold.

He almost threw us three picks in the first.

I had a whole really sad Pat's fan text thread about the three picks we almost got from Sam Darnold early when our whole strategy was throw us one Sam.

And he was kind of thinking about it, but just never did it.

I mean, it was the Seahawks' first Super Bowl, so DK's really excited.

Yeah, congrats on your first win.

I know it was supposed to be nice to finally taste that champagne.

Do any of us think you could win three playoff rounds with Kyler Murray?

Like, honestly.

No.

Maybe.

I think the Darnold Super Bowl, the Darnold Super Bowl, I think, has to be a slice of humble pie for everybody.

Even, I believed in Darnold, I think, more than most people, and even I would have been hesitant to say that Darnold will just win 14 games again and win the Super Bowl but I think what it shows is there is is he Kyler good enough to be a franchise quarterback and you know not even just like a Patrick Holmes Joe Burrow but like even what Trevor Lawrence was at the second half last season I don't know but I think the Darnold thing is a slice of humble pie of look what certain guys can do when they're surrounded by elite talent like Jimmy Garoppolo or Brock Purdy with the Niners and like a different kind of quarterback.

But I think the lesson of the last five years in the NFL is if you can't draft a franchise quarterback or acquire one, you need to take a a, a swing on a core, on a top five pick that was ruined by a bad team.

Donald from the jets, Baker Mayfield on the Browns.

Like I kind of think of Josh Allen had gone to the jets.

He would have sucked too.

And I look at the Cardinals are sneakily just as bad as those teams, but it's warm weather.

So no one cares.

I think like, what if the Cardinals ruined Kyler Murray?

And like, this is one of those athletes that he was, he was a top 10 pick an MLB too.

So yeah, it's like Oh, the the video game clause in his contract and the studying and the.

Is he a leader?

The body language?

Sure.

But that, he's getting paid a million dollars to be a starting quarterback.

We trip over ourselves to the rookie quarterback contracts.

That's like 10 times more money to be the rookie quarterback.

So I think he's so cheap that a team like Minnesota I do think you change up what you do schematically to bring them in.

Because if the alternative is JJ McCarthy or Derek Carr, I'm like I think you do have to give Kyler a shot.

Derek Carr.

I just feel like it's fool's gold.

Like it makes sense in August.

I always felt like you could really feel his height in some of these camps.

He can't throw to the middle.

He just can't.

And a lot of that stuff has to be rolling out side to side which, the better the defense is, it's not going to be there.

It looks great when you're playing a shit team.

I think stylistically there's some similarities to Russell Wilson late in his career, in terms of having Basically, you can scheme away a big chunk of the field against their offense, whether it's Kyler Murray or Russell Wilson.

Basically, Wilson couldn't attack the middle of the field.

Kyler's, I don't think, quite as bad about that, but he does tend to spin away from... pressure and get, try and get outside, make things happen outside the pocket.

And then when you start to lose some of your speed and athleticism or, just in his case, willingness to run.

Cause I think there was a couple of years there where he, you know, every preseason it was like Kyler's not going to want to run.

He's going to try and, you know, play from the pocket.

You heard, you saw this with Russell Wilson throughout his whole career.

Like You know, try and cut down on the... But that's the curse of the running QB.

We're going to go through that with Lamar.

These guys hit their late 20s and teams are like, we don't want those guys to take the hits anymore.

Yeah, yeah.

When you have any kind of talent, when you have any kind of physical deficiency at the pro level, whether it's Will Campbell with his arm length or Kyler Murray with the height you have these other things that make up for it.

The superior athleticism.

Will Campbell goes in injured reserve.

And it's not a shot.

It's like, oh, well, he's a rookie, 22, injured reserve returns.

Okay, now the athleticism you need for the arm length thing.

Kyler, it's like when you lose the crazy athleticism and you're shorter, that hurts your game.

I do think, though, if like i look at miami whose offensive coordinator is bobby slowick they run the 49ers off see better than no question yeah they can't like oh you think you don't think they could have them because i think like no they would have to change their offense to have well who else are they gonna have well bobby slowick can't because like he doesn't know any like they can't kyler cannot do under center play action like he can't do that he needs to be shotgun outside quick game vertical shots outside so the dolphins i don't think you do it the team that i think could do it if it's not minnesota craig was so mad at it's Pittsburgh because that's a Rogers place.

You don't think of Rogers and Kyler being similar, but if you look at a map where they throw, I think it makes Stephen.

Kind of does make a lot of sense for Kyler.

It does, but it wasn't his deep ball stuff.

Like some of the worst of this decade, but that was like some really bad deep ball stats with Kyler.

He, he was kind of, I think he's been kind of all over the place to be honest.

Um, I just think of how he played when he had Hopkins on his team Dodger Hopkins and kind of just willingness to throw it up to him.

That does kind of come to my mind.

But yeah, I believe he's been kind of all over the place with his deep ball accuracy.

Heifetz has allowed no more shots at any of my teams because I'll just start making Giants jokes.

I'm just laying that warning down now.

DK, what's your first one?

So, to play off of the Kyler domino, I think the next big domino is going to be where Malik will assigns, and he's probably going to sign for 20 to 30 million.

Oh, he's getting, it's starting with a three, 30 to 40.

It's a, it's a three.

So I think this is fascinating because if you look at some of the numbers that he's put up in limited starts, I think he has like three or four starts over the last couple of years, like six or seven appearances.

Um, in games, his numbers are ridiculous.

Like truly he, he looks like an elite quarterback.

If you just look at those numbers, obviously it's a very small sample.

And I saw this tweet from Kurt Warner the other day.

Basically, if you look at all all of these the dropbacks that he had as a starter the last two years that he could, if you take out screens and quick throws under five yards, he has 28 real dropbacks.

So you're talking about a million per year per drop.

Yeah, pretty much like gimmick offense only for him.

Gimmick is maybe not the right word, but basically he was utilizing the running game a lot.

They weren't putting a lot on his shoulders.

They weren't asking him to do all that much in each of these starts, but he was incredibly, incredibly efficient with the football.

I've used average like 11 and a half yards per attempt.

And, um, was very good, you know, protect the football.

I like that his teammates seemed really in on him, which I think is important when you're talking about the only position where that actually really matters.

I think Packers fans were in on him too.

So he's a really fascinating one.

I feel like on the surface this looks like an obvious.

You're going to overpay and then he's going to progress badly.

But I kind of find myself thinking he might end up being pretty good in the NFL.

He was the player coming into the league.

When you look at his scouting report rare physical talent, incredible arm, really really fast in and athletic as a runner like he could change the way that you do your your entire run game basically and went to the worst possible team and the worst and went to a bad team.

He you know he and he was really wrong.

That was like he was a third round pick.

That was why he went so late in in the draft is.

He had a lot of things to clean up and then he did exactly what you should do, which is develop behind a good starter for a couple years in a good system with a good coach um, and every time he got an opportunity he did something really impressive.

So I don't know where the ideal place for him to go is right now.

I think a lot of people are connecting him to Arizona.

It's funny.

I'm old enough to remember every decade where we had guys like this and how hard it is to figure it out.

Going back to Scott Mitchell was one of the all-time best ones.

You had the Matt Flynn situation in the early 2010s.

We have these guys and it's like small sample size, but if you look at the mixtape it's like holy shit.

Look at these 20 plays.

I think that seems dubious.

The Matt Flynn comp irks me a little bit.

I know it's both like Packers going from the Packers, like quarterback factory or whatever, and turning these, and Matt Hasselbeck was another one that did it with the Seahawks.

He was like a six round pick.

That was a positive one though.

Yeah.

Yeah, absolutely.

But I think when Matt Flynn happened, everyone was very disappointed, dubious that it was going to be real.

And then when you saw him in training camp, you're like okay, this is, he's not real.

When you, when you see malik willis throw the football at least, you're like damn, this guy's got an arm.

Matt matt flynn was, he just had kind of a noodle arm.

The matt flynn thing i actually think represents why this might be a decent decision.

And again, to be clear, when i look at the malik willis thing i i look at, i think of that, that saying pessimists are often right And optimists are often rich.

And it's like, yeah, Malik Willis probably won't be good in the NFL.

Like, that's easy.

Like, it's easy to say like, oh, 30 million from Malik Willis is probably a waste of money.

All right.

Well, if the Cardinals won three games last year, it's like you could argue the entire season was a waste of money.

You know what I mean?

At some point, every season you win three games is a giant waste of money.

So at that point, the most important thing is to not waste time.

And or opportunities.

So the Seahawks just they signed Matt Flynn and they drafted Russell Wilson.

You do everything and they hit one.

You only have to hit one at every 10 quarterbacks you sign to have a good team like the Niners.

You don't stop shooting.

So you get one.

Brock Purdy was the seventh round pick.

They were going to take a linebacker.

And they decided to take a quarterback because why wouldn't we?

And I think that's the thing.

You need the mentality to keep shooting because it's disproportionate upside.

Wasting $30 million in one season for the Cardinals, who cares?

Honestly, it's not my money.

Who cares if it's $30 million from Luke Willis?

Well, the question is, could it be $120 million for four years or $130 million for four years?

I doubt it.

$30 million a year.

I don't know, man.

Everybody needs a quarterback, right?

The upside is that he's 26.

Here's the thing.

You could sure, maybe the Cardinals go get Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr or whatever, but then you immediately need a quarterback again.

At least if the 20 chance is.

Malik Willis is good then.

He's 26 years old and he's the fastest quarterback in the NFL and he has a cannon.

The issues we're processing and a lot of the pro game stuff and that.

Guess what if the cardinal signed him?

Mike lafleur is matt lafleur's little brothers, the head coach of the packers, so matt lafleur is getting all this credit for malik willis turning around.

No one, no one on earth, should have a better idea of how to help malik willis continue what he was doing than matt lafleur's little brother.

So i look, is it going to work?

Probably not, but if it does, you you need a quarterback, so you might as well try.

One of my favorite moves would be if vegas traded back out of the first pick like flip picks with the jets and then signed Malik Willis, because Brady was like.

I've studied his tape.

I like him.

I think he's a really hard one to figure out because, like Mitchell, had us had a sample size of some success.

But when you also, I test wise, when you watch him, he was just really slow.

Six foot six guy lefty.

It just, you kind of knew he was going to be a bust.

Right.

Um, Matt Flynn, we barely had any tape on.

Steve Walsh was a good one way, way back when, when Dallas had him and um, either Dallas traded for him or new Orleans was, I can't remember but at some point he got a shot and he just had no arm.

Um, but we actually have tape on Willis succeeding on a good team.

And it's not like one game.

It's like a few games.

And I don't know.

I, to me, like the number of 30, what, what did same Donald get?

What did he get last year?

Three for, uh, Three, three years, a hundred million, something like that.

I think that's a good range to like roll the dice with a QB.

Cause if you, if you hit like Seattle did with Darnold, you have somebody on a really good price.

You don't hit, you can kind of get out of it.

You can move on.

Let me, uh, let me take a break and we'll come back and finish this.

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All right.

Was Mac Jones on either of your lists?

Yeah.

You can take this one.

Take it.

Well, we just have the whole quarterback musical chairs.

But I mean, I think the teams are certainly calling 49ers about Mac Jones, but I don't think the 49ers should trade Mac Jones.

I think Niners are saying they'll do a first.

I think they'd probably settle for a second.

But I think the Niners shouldn't trade Mac Jones, unless it's a high pick, because Brock Purdy keeps getting hurt and you need a backup quarterback.

I think hanging on to Brock and Mac Jones.

I mean, the electrical substation thing is still a problem.

Maybe that's why he demanded a trade.

Yeah, exactly.

What do you think?

What do you think, DK?

Do I think he's worth a first?

Probably not in terms of Mac Jones, but I think I would love to see him get a chance to start again somewhere.

I think he's shown enough, especially in like a Shanahan McVay style offense.

I think he's shown enough to be a starter.

I think there's other guys in this group of musical chairs to Kirk Cousins I think is going to have a chance to be a starter this season.

Derek Carr, the rumors on this.

What are we doing?

The momentum of the story has.

I feel like we got to at least pay attention to this.

Like him coming out of retirement, the Saints trading him.

I've heard the Jets are an option for him.

I don't know if he wants to go play for the Jets.

This is like the classic sports amnesia, where enough time passed, where nobody actually remembers his last couple of years.

Like, oh, Derek Carr's coming back.

I know.

It's like, yeah, we had him and he wasn't good.

He's going to be part of the story at the very least.

We got to watch it over the next however long.

Took a couple of weeks.

Anthony Richardson. is another one that I'm very fascinated to watch.

He might not be a starter this year.

I think most likely he's going to have to do the Sam Darnold thing and sit in purgatory for a year or two and then hopefully try and prove that he can be a starter.

Are we talking NFL or another league?

No, I'm talking NFL.

The UFL starts soon.

I still believe in Richardson.

What do you believe in?

His physical talent.

It's the same as Malik Willis.

Malik Willis... I don't see the Richardson thing at all.

Oh, I do.

He's going to get at least a chance.

They gave him an opportunity to seek a trade.

We'll see if he does that.

And then the other guy to include here is Tyson Bajent of the Bears.

But there's basically just a bunch of... And Tua's going to get cut.

Kirk Cousins is going to get cut.

Andrew Rodgers, if he ever lets us know what he's doing.

Tyson Bajent intrigues me legitimately because of the gushing quotes from everybody last two training camps, basically.

But I never knew if it was trying to get Caleb more excited to compete or whether they genuinely felt that way.

What do you think?

If it's 50, 50, no, the bears love Tyson.

Yeah, that's how it feels.

They bears love him.

Ben Johnson at the combine was, was, was, appalled at the idea that they might trade him.

I think some teams just love their backup and they know the bears are obsessed with Tyson Bajan.

They believe that a Caleb got hurt.

I think they every team's like.

We have one of the best 30, we have two of the best 32 quarterbacks.

So if you ask the teams, it's like there's 60 top 32 quarterbacks, but the bears actually do think they could keep rolling with Tyson Bajan.

Would either of you trade the 33rd pick for Mac Jones, which belongs to the New York football jets?

I would think about it if I'm the I'm the most aggressive person about this.

I actually would think about it.

I think that's a really I would think about it for both sides.

Yeah, because ultimately, like you're paying Brock Purdy so much money, it almost becomes like a fantasy football thing where you've paid so much for Saquon Barkley or whoever.

It's like, well, if he gets hurt, I'm screwed anyway.

I would think about it.

It would be funny to have Mac Jones on the Jets, too.

After Sam Darnold beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, I think all demons could be.

I'm not afraid of any demons for a former Pats QB.

Or a Pats rival, either.

We got to talk about DJ Moore getting traded to the Bills.

So this is kind of indicative of a.

This is what Haifus has been talking about railing on the post-Chiefs arms race.

Basically, the Chiefs are down right now.

Maybe this is going to be a mini rebuild year and everyone else kind of wants to go for it.

No one expected a team like the seahawks to win the super bowl.

No one expected the patriots to make the super bowl.

It's enticing yeah, and so they're like we could.

That could be us, we could do this, and i think you know.

I think the bills in particular are the among all teams.

The nfl were like man, we freaking blew it last year.

We missed our opportunity, we missed our window.

A lot of it had to do with our receivers are just not very good.

The swings that they've taken at receiver, Keon Coleman, it just didn't work out in multiple ways.

That's the thing.

They did try to address it.

They just didn't do it correctly.

Keon Coleman, I don't know what happened with him.

Obviously there was talent there, but It was more than just him not fitting schematically, I think, because he was.

He was a healthy and active a bunch of times.

It's also professionalism.

So, yeah, they just missed.

But this one, I think, makes a lot of sense for for the Bills.

I do think they probably overpaid to get it.

You know they sent a second rounder to get and took on a bunch of his contract to get an old receiver coming off his worst season.

And there's a miracle trade for Chicago.

I mean, they probably couldn't say yes and hang on fast enough.

A hundred percent.

They were happy with DJ Moore like 30 times over the last three years.

I mean, we made, we made a big joke of it all of last year.

Basically DJ Moore at one point left the field during a play in the 2024 season.

And then, um, was that 2020?

Was that last year?

2024 hype.

It's 2024.

I felt like I was reading a DJ Moore something that had nothing to do with football story once every six weeks for the last couple of years.

He just didn't have a good connection whatsoever with, uh, with, Caleb Williams.

It felt like they hated each other.

Just kind of one of those things.

And so obviously getting a second rounder for him is great for the Bears.

But I think the Bills, this does make a lot of sense for him.

He can play outside.

He's still got juice as an after the catch runner.

He can get deep.

I think this is by far the best quarterback he's played with in his career.

I mean, if you look at DJ Moore's history of quarterbacks, it's a whole bunch of very bad quarterbacks.

And then depending on how you feel about Caleb Williams last year, Caleb Williams.

Um, so he has an opportunity here to have like a late career Renaissance.

I think he's 28 or something like that.

Um, and I thought a second was too much.

I did too.

And the other problem is it sets a market for AJ Brown, who's just a better player, who I thought teams thought they'd get a second for him.

And now you'd be like, well, you gotta be more than that.

DJ Moore went for a second.

Yep.

Um, DJ Moore does have history with Joe Brady from the time of the Panthers together, I believe.

Um, and so, Yeah.

I mean, there, there's some, I think the bills are sorry.

Yeah.

I do think the bills got better, but it was an expensive, uh, decision.

I'm calling it what it was.

It was a panic trade by the bills.

A hundred percent.

The bills are all time.

We can't be left at the altar with no wide receiver.

We got to get somebody.

Oh, DJ.

Well, let's just do it now.

And, um, I think it was really risky.

And, I don't know.

They've had kind of slightly unreliable guys the last couple of years that that didn't go over well.

And now they just bought another one.

So you didn't like it either?

No, the bills are tilting.

I mean Andrew Gruditar wrote a piece of the ringer when all the bill stuff went down that they're just absolutely tilting and the bills like totally lost the uh goodwill of the fan base in like 10 days, really 10 hours.

When the owner comes out and does the press conference and is like oh, this is just a very rich, very angry man and the truth is that the bills lost to the chiefs i think four times in the playoffs last six or seven years.

Yeah, and then the mahomes tears, his acl and the chiefs are out and the bills still can't make the afc championship game and i think that that sometimes really is painful and so they're tilting.

Well then you watch how bad the Pats were in the Super Bowl and you're like, oh my God.

Everyone's freaking out.

The Broncos with the Bo Nix injury, the Jaguars, the Texans, the Bills all these teams are looking at the Patriots.

No offense, the Patriots, how bad they were.

I'm not offended after how bad we were in the Super Bowl.

But yeah no, I think the Bills are just the top of the line, because they lost the division to the Patriots too.

And so, yeah, I think this is very much a panic back foot deal.

That joke you made about that that could be us.

That would be a fun power rankings.

Cause I think the number one that could be us team is the Atlanta Falcons.

Yeah.

Right.

New coach.

All the advanced metrics are really favorable to them last year.

I haven't done any football homework yet, but it just felt like they were the best team in that division.

It's kind of stupid.

They didn't win it.

Um, they can make the team better in a bunch of different ways.

They don't have a first round pick unfortunately, because they traded it to a guy that might not even be playing next year, but they still have a bunch of talent.

And I just felt like they underachieved.

And that could be us team because they're in a weird division.

Who else would you have?

And that could be us sweepstakes, Danny.

For 2026.

Are the Giants in there?

The Giants are going to be the popular pick, yeah, because they can have a very easy schedule.

Carabao, easy schedule.

Patriots blueprint.

Keep Jackson Dart healthy.

Get another top five pick.

Spend some money.

Try to get anything out of Abdul Carter.

That's not just weird stories about him falling asleep and practices.

He's going to be super awake.

He's going to be so alert under John Harbaugh.

Is Vegas said that could be his team or is it just too weird over there?

I thought that athletic story this week was strange.

Wait, DK, what's the joke you made?

In Arrested Development there's a whole episode about a surrogate father who walks around with a camera on his head to help out with George Sr from prison.

He's basically like Tom Brady's eyes and ears on the ground when he's off doing whatever he's doing.

He was a big reason why the Brady stuff fell apart with Belichick.

I know, and this is where I'm confused.

He was there all the time, and nobody really understood what his role was.

Yeah, he's like some sort of weird shaman thing.

But that's weird, because on paper, the Raiders...

Do check a lot of the boxes, right, for the big leap team next year.

Mendoza's good right away.

If their coach is good right away, fourth place schedule.

They have skilled players.

They're going to trade Max Crosby, blah, blah, blah.

I don't know.

I mean, Mendoza...

You would have said, I don't know about the Patriots last year.

But even Drake May's rookie year won one game.

In games, he actually started and finished, went like one in seven in games.

And then the year two.

The year one to year two I mean the rookie quarterback turning around a team like that.

Well, Mendoza's like 30 years old, so maybe you got to factor that in.

He's been in college forever.

What's your next thing on the list?

Well, speaking of the Raiders, I mean, Max Crosby, I think, is going to get traded.

I think Deacon Ireland lean toward A.J.

Brown does not get traded.

Patriots.

It would make sense.

It seems like there's a bidding war.

Honestly, there's a chance Max Crosby's dealt by the time where this show goes up.

But I think Max Crosby does get dealt before free agency opens Monday.

And I think there's a lot of teams that make sense.

I think the Bears should be all in.

I mean, they just free up the money.

How much money do the Bears have?

They've had a million draft picks and they've spent crazy free agent money.

I don't understand how they have this unlimited funds. there's always money in the banana stand.

Like, teams can always create it if you need to.

And I think the Bears, because Caleb Williams on the rookie deal, you have Colson Loveless on a rookie deal.

I think trading DJ Moore, like, now you have Roman Dunes who's on a rookie deal.

Luther Burden's on a rookie deal.

Like, the left tackle, Ozzy Trapillo, until he got hurt, was on a rookie deal.

Like, they have all these guys.

Even Darnell Wright, the right tackle, I think, was on a rookie deal.

So they need to fund a defense.

The lesser center.

Yes, they did.

So they need a center now.

But I think they need to fund a defense with the thing so I mean the front seven for the Bears is horrific but Max Crosby is he's I don't know I think he's there's very few players I want to see more in a contender he's a jump off the TV it's been doing it feel that way about Garrett there's like nine players in the league that you're like holy shit that guy's good he's also he's also kind of a culture guy too because he plays so hard and he plays every snap you know what I mean he's like the type of guy yeah maniac is I love that dude I think I'm really hopeful with the paths on this one because what do they have to give up the variable thing well they have the 31st pick right that's the centerpiece of something i don't know if they would give up a first and a second they have two thirds oh they're gonna get two first for crosby you think he's two first i mean he is gonna be 30 i don't think it's the same parsons kind of pool well you guys are just saying that netflix you were in matt bellamy we're just saying the netflix uh paramount thing how much was paramount gonna pay 17 a share Right.

So you just think the bidding war bumps it up.

I just thought the Parsons thing, he was four years younger.

Right.

And the defensive ends, once you start hitting your thirties, that's the fear with Hendrickson.

Plan B is you sign Hendrickson and hope you can get two really good years out of him, right?

Keep your first pick.

That would make a lot of sense.

You would vote for that?

You know what I think is an interesting variable here?

And I don't know if the NFL will learn this lesson.

Bill, you mentioned what went wrong with Ashton Gentry last year in the running back and taking a running back in the top 10 and whether the NFL will learn from that.

If you look at two of the big ticket trades from last year, it was Micah Parsons for two firsts and sauce Gardner for two first and Parsons tore his ACL and sauce got hurt with an Achilles injury and kind of you know, didn't play the last part of the season.

I'm wondering if teams will be like, man, Trading two firsts is really, really risky.

I wouldn't do two firsts.

Even if it's a super elite player.

You know what I mean?

I just wouldn't do it.

That list of guys that would trade two firsts for is pretty small.

Only quarterbacks.

If he was 25, I'm in.

But 29, I'm only getting a few years for him.

Yeah.

So you agree with that, Heifetz?

I do.

I mean I joke on our team, our show, all the time that I feel like I mean look, I am not as up on the NBA as you, or NBA staff.

But I always feel like I look at the NBA and I see what the Oklahoma City Thunder have done.

And if it was just what the Sixers had finished with the process, we'd be like greatest rebuild ever.

Yeah, like this is the best rebuild I've ever seen in any sport in my lifetime for the Thunder.

And I feel like no one's learned any lessons from this whatsoever.

I see, you know what I mean?

I see teams like, oh, like the Rams, like we got to go all in now.

And I'm like oh, the Thunder just created the largest window possible and almost were freed by the inability to attract free agents to their city.

And they're like, all right, we're going to have a ton of picks.

And I see that with the NFL too.

I leaned more toward what the Chiefs did.

Where you're like, I'd rather get four picks for this guy that we got five years out of.

That makes more sense.

But Crosby though, you also...

If you're certain teams, you do want to get a guy like that on the team.

He's really special.

I really think he's.

I don't know what.

If I made a list of the top 12 best players that I think are in the league that just watch him week to week, he would be in the top seven or eight for me.

You notice him every game and he's getting double teamed.

He's just omnipresent.

Quarter after quarter, you notice him.

Every sport has guys that languish on bad great players that languish on bad teams.

And you're like, I wish they were on a contender.

And you're like, I'm glad Jalen Ramsey got off the Jaguars.

You know, every team has guys like that.

And I'm like, that's why I'm still kind of mad.

Miles Garrett decided he ran a sack record in 40 million.

I'm like couldn't you have gotten traded gone to.

I wish Miles Garrett would play meaningful football ever and for merely 36 million a year.

But I don't know.

I'm sure there's a ton of guys like that.

Illuminating though, right?

Like at some point, And the way he how badly he wanted the sack record and him taking the contract when he knew that team stunk like kind of tells you a little bit.

I, to me, Crosby is like, I just want to win.

I don't care where I go.

Yeah.

Please put me on a winning team.

I can't take this anymore.

Like him getting genuinely mad that they shelved him.

Oh yeah.

Like a tank for a QB.

And he was like fucking furious about it.

He's like, I'm a football player.

Football players play football.

Um, what do you have for the next one?

DK.

So just in terms of things to watch the next week, guys that can change teams.

There's a lot of guys that have pretty big name value and excitement value that are potentially going to be changing teams the next couple of weeks.

Ken Walker, I think is one that, Especially for me, I'm going to be really bummed to see if he leaves Seattle.

Wow, it's like you got over the hump with this.

That was another rollercoaster ride, right?

And then all of a sudden it was like a great rollercoaster and you're just going to lose him?

It was simultaneously the best thing that could happen to the Seahawks and the worst thing that could happen to the Seahawks, because he got really hot at the right time.

And truthfully, they probably wouldn't have won the Super Bowl without him.

I mean, he made some incredible plays in the NFC Championship game.

He was the Super Bowl MVP, literally.

So, yeah, I mean, it's going to be a bummer to see him go if he does end up going.

He's going to have to take a discount to stay in Seattle.

I think that's how it looks.

So it's like what 11 12, 13 is kind of the market and somebody will pay a little more than that to get him.

Maybe like 15 a year?

Yes.

And it's going to be, man, it's going to... I understand this from the CX point of view.

They have a lot of free agents.

They have to get big money deals to JSN and a couple other guys over the next couple of years.

So I understand it.

But It's going to be sad to see him go for like a difference of 2 million a year or something like that.

I understand that's kind of just how the business works.

It's the Super Bowl.

I mean, I remember we won the three and four years and then they traded Deion Branch to you.

I know.

For first.

And it cost us literally cost us the Super Bowl, because they were trying to say oh, he's getting too expensive.

And it was the biggest mistake Belichick made in that whole 2000.

It's a fine line to walk, for sure.

In addition to Ken Walker, who I think will make any team that he goes with a lot better.

Mike Evans, I think, is a really interesting one, even how old he is now.

He's going to sign somewhere.

I mean, look, the Patriots might actually make a lot of sense for him.

I wish I knew he was going to play 17 straight games.

I know.

Not to mention playoffs.

You always feel like there's going to be five in the middle there that he's just gone.

Yeah.

Debo Samuel, David Njoku, Dallas Goddard, Khalil Mack.

I'm just naming big names that people will be like, whoa, oh yeah, he's on a new team.

Trey Hendrickson, we mentioned.

Mika Fitzpatrick, maybe AJ Brown if he gets traded.

So I'm just excited to kind of see where all these guys go.

Travis Etienne's another free agent out there that is kind of exciting.

Who was, I thought, pretty effective last year.

I think Travis Etienne and Ken Walker are going to get decent deals for running backs because also the draft class isn't uh great at running back.

This year there's jeremiah love at a notre dame who is amazing.

He's like a jimmy gibbs.

He's probably maybe a better prospect, you know, than even genti was last year, but then the second best running back in this class, dk.

You know your draft expert.

Here we have the NFL draft show and we're like is the second best running back in this class.

Jeremiah's backup at notre dame, like price, like it's not a good running back class.

So teams are like unless you get jeremiah love, there are no starting running backs in this year's class where last year there was like eight.

Kyle Monunga for the bears was a seventh round pick.

So the ETN and Ken Walker, all these teams also.

They feel like the nerds were wrong because teams are back to running the ball.

So they want to establish the run again.

So I think the ETN and Ken Walker are going to be the centerpieces.

I mean, look at, look at the David Montgomery trade.

You know the Texas traded three picks, I think, or two picks.

That was nuts.

Yeah.

Two picks on a player to grab a running back.

Who's 28 years old, almost 29 years old.

And they have Woody Marks who had moments last year.

To me, that was, that just tells you this class is not great.

Yeah.

Out of all the guys you mentioned, I think Hendrickson is the most intriguing, as a One year is maybe two at a high level.

It reminds me a little when the Pats got Corey Dillon, when he basically got one good year out of him, won the Super Bowl, but the next year he got old.

And Henderson, I think he's 32.

You know who it kind of reminds me of a little bit?

Different type of player, but the Seahawks traded a guy named or signed a guy named Demarcus Lawrence in free agency late last year.

And everybody kind of thought he was washed.

And they're, you know, they're like, this guy hasn't, you know, he's getting up there in age.

He's more of a run defender.

He was critical for the Seahawks all year.

He was awesome.

He had like a second wind.

There's a famous interview with him prior to the season where he's like man, I didn't want to leave Dallas, but I just know I'm not going to win a Super Bowl in Dallas.

And, you know, obviously Cowboys fans took great offense to that.

Michael Parsons took great offense.

Yeah, they were like jawing on Twitter about it.

DeMarcus Lawrence was like, watch.

And then they won a Super Bowl.

But I can see Hendrickson having sort of a, I mean, not that he needs a renaissance.

He was good like two years ago, like not even um, but you know, it's not like he's totally fallen off, but I think he's the type of guy who everyone will kind of remember in 2025.

I wonder if Khalil Mack could be that way.

Cause he got hurt last year too, but I there was some impactful moments with him where you know um.

Can we talk to him?

Back to the bears.

Ooh, I always hope that happens.

Can we talk AJ Brown?

Let's do it.

So your theory is they're going to dangle him but ultimately not trade him?

Sounds like where you two have landed.

I think that because well, I don't know.

I kind of am back and forth on it.

I think they know that they're better with him on the roster and they want to go for it this year.

This is like the same conversation we're having with the Bills grabbing DJ Moore.

They know that AJ Brown makes them better this year and they have a chance to go out and win a Super Bowl.

So I think they're going to ultimately stick with them.

But I don't like rule anything out.

I think that the Eagles will probably trade A.J.

Brown, but I don't know if it happens next week.

They totally could.

But I believe that they structured A.J.

Brown's bonus where basically they're able to pay.

They are able to the money that they would have to pay.

A.J.

Brown is able to be done, I think, closer to August or even the beginning of the season.

So it might be like the weird timing of the George Pickens trade last year, which was after the draft.

And because the 2027 draft might be deeper than 2026, the Eagles, if they're going to lose A.J.

Brown, they might be looking at it as if we are offered it.

They said they want a Quinn and Williams deal first and a second.

No way.

If the Eagles are trying to hold out, I think for a first rounder, and if they don't get offered one, I think they'd rather wait and see if they could get someone from one in 2027 than flip AJ.

Brown for less than they want.

So we'll see what people offer.

Well, now it's time for me to give you my take.

The Mike Vrabel reunion in New England?

May have been on a few threads about this over the last couple weeks.

I don't like it.

And now if the Pats traded 31 for him and probably like a third next year or something, that would probably be the price right.

Something like that.

And it'll be like he was a Pats fan growing up.

He played for Mike Vrabel.

Mike Vrabel loved him when they traded AJ Brown and drafted Burks.

That was the beginning of the end for Mike Vrabel in Tennessee.

He didn't want that trade to happen.

Now they're reunited.

He knows how good he is.

He wasn't happy in Philly.

He's going to love Drake May.

I'll talk myself into it in five minutes.

I just don't think it's what they should do.

I would much rather slightly overpay Pierce from the Colts and keep my first round pick.

I think Pierce is like, I know the advanced stats back me up on this.

I think he's really good.

And I think he's been saddled for the most part with shit quarterbacks.

And we only saw a little bit when Indiana Jones got hot there, as Jason Garrett called him for eight weeks.

But he was in a quarterback wasteland.

And watching the Colts, that dude got open every game.

And I just feel like there's a lot more there.

And if he was the focal point, I'd much rather pay him.

What's he going to get?

Like over 20, right?

It's going to get too much probably, but I think you know.

Would you pay him a hundred for four years?

Like I would rather do that and keep my first round pick.

And if it's a little over the top, so be it.

If you're talking 30 range now, I'm a little more nervous. but 25 a year for pierce i'm doing that in five seconds doesn't it feel like he would fit just perfectly it was drake may exactly what we need yeah may is such a elite deep ball passer alec pierce has been one of the best deep ball receivers in the nfl pair him with booty who's also very good deep down the field but here's the thing with the pierce deep ball thing he's also good at pretending he's going for the deep ball and cutting off like he basically has i don't know i really liked him last year um That would be my preference.

Don't you usually draft your white receivers for the Patriots in the seventh round?

We're going to try a new strategy.

It's a new strategy.

Efton Chisholm is coming along.

Don't forget.

Is he one of the five best deep ball guys?

One of the best three?

Like, where is he in the deep ball receiver rankings?

He's got to be up there.

Who has bigger, longer plays than him last couple of years?

I mean in terms of just like a guy.

I mean obviously I'm not going to compare him to like Justin Jefferson or Jamar Chase, but I think Alec Pierce I think he was started out as a yeah.

But I think that Alec Pierce, I do think that in the beginning it was like oh, I mean frankly, he's huge.

He's like 6'3", feels bigger than that, plays bigger than that.

He runs like a 4'3", 8", or whatever.

And it started, I was like, oh, he's a great deep guy.

He's got the most yards per catch in the league.

I actually think he rounded out to a three-level receiver.

I think he can win quick in the intermediate.

I totally agree.

I think he can move all over.

So I agree.

I think that if you have the cap space, it's always dangerous.

Which the Patriots have and a couple other teams have.

Yeah.

So I and so then all the deals are two years anyway.

Every single I mean Stefan Diggs signed a three-year deal and then you got cut.

He got cut today to save money.

So I think that every free agent contract is only going to be two years anyway.

So I agree because AJ Brown, I'm a little concerned.

I also am concerned that on one hand I think AJ Brown's right, because every criticism he's had of Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense seems obviously true.

And maybe he'd be great somewhere else and he's undervalued.

I also fear the fact that A.J.

Brown said he won a Super Bowl and went to his locker and said he felt nothing because he wasn't really a huge part of the game plan.

Because it wasn't with the Patriots.

He was heartbroken.

He didn't win with his favorite team.

I would rather.

I really value the pick because I think with these trades sometimes you're getting a guy that you already have to pay.

But you also lose this other asset, right?

So you're basically turning a first round pick that's especially late in the round is one of the best assets you could have when you're building a franchise.

You're losing that.

You're basically turning it into a $29 million, $30 million, $35 million a year guy.

Whereas I could pay Pierce 27 million.

But then I also have this awesome 31st pick asset and the combined adds up to AJ Brown.

Why wouldn't I do that also?

It the eagles, howie roseman right now.

If it's just poker, you know what's the line from rounders.

It's like if it's been 30 minutes at the table, you don't know.

You're the sucker.

Yeah, you're the sucker.

It's like if howie roseman's been trying to deal aj brown for somewhere between two months and two years and then suddenly you're on the phone with him trying to get a first, it's like don't make it.

Like just hang up the phone, like just don't make a deal with.

Like do you know much more information howie roseman has about the situation than you?

Like i don't think Any team is going to be at an advantage doing that deal.

So I agree.

I probably wouldn't pay the price, which is why I kind of think no one's going to give him a first in the next week or so.

When we got Moss, we gave up a fourth for him.

Yeah.

Right.

And it was like crazy.

Didn't want to give a first, but his reputation was in tatters.

Right.

And they were just kind of stole them and figured they can rejuvenate him with Brady.

But OK, before we go.

Heifetz, give me your single craziest prediction you can possibly make.

That actually has a chance to happen.

For the NFL or for the next week?

NFL.

For the next three weeks.

The single craziest off-season thing that might actually happen.

Yeah.

It has to have a chance of happening.

So it's not like Malik Willis signs and then it's good.

You're talking about a move that could be made?

Okay.

I would say the craziest thing is...

Like the Eagles bring in competition for Jalen Hurts.

Like the Eagles bring in Malik Willis.

What a great answer.

I was worried this wouldn't be a good game because they didn't prep you.

The Eagles bring in Anthony Richardson or the Eagles bring in Malik Willis.

The Eagles are like, hey, like, you know what?

We had Wentz and Jalen Hurts came in.

And you know what, Jalen?

You can deal with it because you dealt with two at Alabama.

And you know what, Jalen?

Like all those things you always say all the time.

Competition, you know.

Like the Eagles bring in Kyler Murray?

Yeah.

The Eagles bring in the Eagles quarterback factory, which they don't want to say out loud anymore, but it's still true.

And they can't get rid of Jalen Hurts in his contract yet, but we all know where this is going.

And I think the Eagles should add a quarterback of some kind.

And I would be fascinated to see if the Eagles actually added a court.

Really?

Why shouldn't they?

Other than it would look bad.

Well, the Tanner McKee bandwagon, they're still picking the survivors out of the, out of the crash.

That was really tough, that game.

His terrible performance saved us from an entire offseason of wondering whether he should be the quarterback.

DK, do you have a crazy prediction that might actually happen?

There's a couple that came to my mind immediately because of the way that coaches and GMs have talked about these players.

Number one, the Broncos trade, Bo Nix, because of all this uh, Sean Payton Nick's sort of drama.

That's happened, even though it's not probably not really that much drama.

It didn't feel like nothing.

Yeah.

That's kind of my point is.

And even at the combine we went to the Payton presser and he was, you know, kind of getting in like fights with the beat reporters there about like the whole thing.

He like put one of the beat reporter and time out during the presser.

And it was like, This is kind of weird, man.

And then Bo Nix is coming out and talking about how Sean Payton shouldn't be talking about his medical history and all that.

Let's call it what it is.

Sean Payton has acted really fucking weird this whole season and then the offseason.

I think it's not just one thing.

You could point to seven different things that just are weird.

You're supposed to be the most stable person in your organization, and he's not.

The Raylan Givens quote from justified was like, you've run into an asshole in the morning.

You ran into an asshole and you run into assholes all day.

You know, maybe you're the asshole.

It's like Russell Wilson's calling out Sean Payton.

All the Shanahan tree coaches hate Sean Payton for what he said about Nate Hackett and being a bad coach.

Before which you don't say out loud

It's like, let other people say that for you.

And, like the amount of people, that Sean Payton has started being his own starting quarterback has serious beef.

And I do really do think that that Raiders Broncos Thursday night football abomination that the Broncos won like nine to six or six nothing, whatever it was.

There was real beef between Sean Payton and Bo Nix after that game.

And I think it was papered over by a 12-game winning streak.

Winning solves everything.

So no one looked at it.

But then they lose one game and then suddenly it's like oh, the quarterback and coach are mad at each other again.

So I agree.

I think there's a very strange dynamic there between Bo Nix and Sean Payton.

I'm obviously not being 100 serious, but since we're making wild predictions, there's an element of Sean Payton just wants to prove that he can do it with any quarterback.

You know what I mean?

Like that was like the whole AFC championship game.

That was the whole game was him trying to be the hero, which seems to be what he wants.

Um, the other one that came to mind, can I do one more Sean Payton thing quick?

Cause I'm going to claim this corner in the off season.

Yeah.

Sean Payton just might be a dick.

And he did Fox for what a year or two years.

So like Schrager, shout out to Schrager.

But like all those guys like Sean Payton, great great hang, great dinner guests.

Like got suspended for the entire season for bounty gate left the saints and fucking shambles.

Right.

He.

All he did was like pay their salary cap credit card for years and years, to the point that the dinner check was coming.

The waiter was coming over and he's like, I'll see you guys later.

And it was just gone.

And that was it.

And I think he's been he seemed like a huge prick the last year or so.

So he's a true Bill Parcells guy.

And that's why I've said the whole time that I think Mike Vrabel is like the one, the only Belichick disciple.

But Vrabel actually is a lot common with Bill Parcells because I think well, Bill Parcells was the confrontation guy and Belichick never was.

Sean Payton is the alpha confrontation guy, the same way that Bill Parcells could handle Lawrence Taylor.

Sean Payton is that kind of coach.

I'm trying to dominate every room.

It's crazy.

I'm glad you brought this up because Belichick always got the reputation as being this huge asshole.

You mean like Sean Payton?

Is Sean Payton better than Bill Belichick?

I don't know.

Anyway, what was your other thing, Danny?

I was just going to say anytime you have a GM or coach sort of like, strongly come out against like a news story.

I.

It kind of piques my interest.

And the CJ Stroud uh, Nick Serio.

Nick Serio was asked about whether they're going to.

I don't know what the question exactly was, but he was like all this CJ Stroud stuff is moronic.

And like when I went totally in on even the notion that CJ Stroud would not be a part of their future plans or whatever, like obviously his.

You know they're.

They're going to have to make a decision on him sooner or later here.

And So I'm just curious to see.

I guess my prediction would be that maybe there's a chance he does get moved because of how strongly they came out.

This is how it happens every year at the combine.

You're like, there's no way we're moving in.

We don't, we're not even thinking about that.

And then, like a week later, it's like he's traded in the bucket of the craziest things that might happen.

You're saying like, cause the Seahawks is Russell Wilson.

Pete Carroll just basically was like, how dare you?

Yeah.

You know what?

A good way to follow the tea leaves on that story.

You always follow the defensive guys.

That was where you started to know with Russell Wilson, when the defensive guys started taking shots at him in the mid 2010s.

And there was like real resentment.

I haven't seen that yet with the Texans though.

No, no.

And I don't, I don't.

I still am sort of in the believer camp for CJ Stroud, but I think, with the way that things have gone in the last couple of years, it's obviously just something that's worth monitoring.

And and.

So you're saying like you're ready for the Will Anderson GQ interview, where he's like we felt like we had the best team in the league, but only on one side of the ball.

And it's just like shots fired.

If we could just score one touchdown.

If our quarterback had been able to do anything like just one of those, then there's like blood in the water all of a sudden.

Or even just not do anything.

If CJ Stratton had just gone down every time, I think that they might have had a chance.

Yeah, if he throws it in the dirt three times in a row and punts, they're better off.

Well, before we go and we're about to go and I kept you guys 20 minutes longer than I thought I want to give you my list of things that I don't care about.

Oh.

Aaron Rodgers, I don't care if you're playing or not next year.

There's one.

Uh, George Pickens, whether you're a franchise tag, they're traded or whatever.

I just don't care.

I'll let me know in late August what happens.

Cause what's probably going to happen is you're in your franchise tag.

You're going to hold out.

And then Jerry Jones will get to be on first take for four straight months with the George Pickens thing.

I just don't care.

He's going to end up on the team and that's it.

And then uh, last but not least the, the Brady Vegas.

I'm sure there's going to be more stuff about this.

I'm really curious. trying hard to like Tom Brady, the guy that brought me six Super Bowls.

All of these stories are making me like him less, so I'm going to file that into my own care kit.

Those are my three things.

What I do care about is I still want to know what happened to Drake May and whether he was injured or not.

And I still want to know what happened to my left tackle and whether I can count on him next year.

Look, the Seahawks defense is better.

Will Campbell was a rookie 22-year-old tackle who went on injured reserve and everyone saw him with his arms.

He was 22.

He was a rookie.

He came back from a torn MCL.

It wasn't on the injury report.

His knee was not healed.

Drake May, it's like, that was the best, the best defense in years.

It's like Mike McDonald, what he does.

We didn't run plays that we ran with him all year because I don't think he could run the plays.

Something was wrong with him.

Probably.

I mean, if they say Will Campbell's not on the jury report, imagine what was going on with Drake May's shoulder.

And once you lie about it, you can't then tell people after.

Hmm.

You're just kind of stuck with the lie.

Classified.

Right?

The Seahawks also blitzed the crap out of the Patriots in that game.

It was embarrassing.

It seemed like they knew what the plays were.

There was that report that kind of came out after the game that the Seahawks picked up on a tell from the offensive line that they were going to be passing or running.

So, yeah.

Listen, I hold no grudges against Danny Kelly, Mina Kimes.

Sam Darnold, the city of Seattle.

I still want to do a rewatchables there.

Oh, there it is.

Is that the hat?

Oh, wow.

Yeah.

I just had to bring it out.

Nice one.

How many did you get?

Uh, I got four different hats and you know, um probably still going to be in the market for a few more.

So the best thing about winning the super bowl is the, the, the stupid merch purchases.

That's crisp.

Yeah.

That's a nice color.

This is what they were wearing on the parade and everything.

And post-game stuff.

DK, last question.

What does Shahid get?

Because it sounds like he's out of Seattle.

That's a great question.

Is he like a Cooper Cups money last year type of thing?

Is it like a 39 for three?

Yeah, like maybe a little bit more.

I think he's a Raider.

Rashid Shahid.

That's a good Patriot backup too.

I don't know.

I like Shahid.

You were just figuring out how to use him as the season went along.

I'm surprised they didn't try to keep him.

Truthfully, it's the same story as like Tenth Walker, he won them a couple of games in the season.

Shahid did.

I mean, if you look at the way that what he was doing on special teams, the return game, he was incredible.

Like sometimes they would have him anytime they need an explosive play.

I feel like Shahid would come up.

They dial him up.

Yeah.

Ram Seahawks Thursday football game, which was the best game of the year.

Like the Charbonnet two point conversion flips everything.

The Seahawks get home field because of that.

That way.

But Rashid Shahid's punt return set up that whole game.

Well, that's the other thing.

You lose Walker and you don't have Charbonnet, so now you're in the running back market which you just said.

The draft's not good.

I don't know what they're going to do.

Tyler Algier, maybe?

I think you end up with Kenneth Walker would be my bet.

I hope so.

I think that's where we plan.

All right, the Dannys, great to see you.

Say hi to Craig for him, even though I'm going to probably see him in a couple days.

A pleasure as always.

Thank you.

Thank you, Bill.

All right, taping this mid-Thursday afternoon.

It seems... like we were pretty certain Jason Tatum is coming back for the Friday Dallas game.

Michael Pena is here.

Joe house is here.

Michael Pena.

What are the minutes like for you?

What do you think?

What are you expecting for minute limit for Tatum before we get into the power pole?

Yeah, we were just talking about this right before we went on.

Uh, I would anticipate short stints for him.

I would anticipate him obviously starting and then subbing out after maybe the first TV timeout.

So you think he's going to start?

Interesting.

You don't think he'll start?

I didn't think about that.

I thought they might be a little more careful, but maybe you're right.

Maybe he... starts, but then you get in a hole.

Who's the last guys that hammer Jalen Brown and Jalen Brown's like, I was the last guy.

No, I'm not.

I don't know.

Maybe you bring them off the bench.

It's a little easier.

Bill, you made a really good point.

I don't know when it was recently about how Baylor Shireman was kind of like slotting in the minutes and the role that you think Tatum might fill.

Yeah, exactly.

And Shireman's been great.

I don't even want I don't think he should be removed from the rotation at all.

He's been terrific.

But I think that that will eventually be kind of the ramp up goal for him.

Just kind of those minutes.

And yeah, we'll see.

I mean, it's this is kind of uncharted waters in a lot of ways.

I thought in my head.

I thought they'd go like five minutes into the first quarter, wait five minutes into the second quarter and just play them in these shorter stints.

The person who doesn't care about this at all, other than the gambling standpoint, is Joe House, who doesn't even want to have Celtics combos at all.

This is fascinating fucking content.

Talk about us from the gambling standpoint.

Did this change your perspective of the Eastern Conference that Tatum is actually going to probably be back here?

As it became clear that he is going to play basketball this season, I immediately jumped into the FanDuel Sportsbook and bought the Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference.

I bought Joe Mazzulla to win Coach of the Year and I bought the Boston Celtics to win the NBA title.

Just to put your stink on us?

You have to have, well, I mean, yes, for sure.

But also, this team with Tatum in any kind of capacity, 80% Tatum, 85% Tatum, They can win the East.

And if they win the East, then that means that they're in the final.

And then, you know, let's see.

Well, they need some luck with Charlotte would have to have an injury, because Charlotte, I mean, they might go 12 and 0 in the Eastern Conference playoffs at this point.

They're just rolling through the league.

We're going to do a power poll in a second.

And I sent you guys the records and the net ratings for the last 30 games, which is basically July 1st.

And Charlotte's in the 11th, Pina, for a plus rating.

This is like 2017 Warriors territory.

Do you understand it at all?

I do.

I watch a ton of Charlotte Hornets basketball, obviously.

But it's so funny that you compare them to the Warriors because...

I have this crazy stat that I saw last night, but they've won six straight games by at least 15 points, which hasn't happened since the 2018 Warriors.

And that's tied for the second longest streak of that kind in NBA history.

The Detroit Pistons in 2004, the only team that topped them eight in a row.

So they're just demolishing people at a rate that's ridiculous.

I mean, the starting lineup is everyone kind of knows this already, but it's historically great.

And I think aesthetically, when you watch them play.

You know you talked about this in your deep dive a few days ago, but the way that they have so much randomness in their offense with the small, small screens, the slip screens, go screens, et cetera.

It's really reminiscent of how the Indiana Pacers played last year to me and would give me hope if I was a Charlotte Hornets fan that this could be like a truly magical season for this team.

I think they're terrifying.

They absolutely destroyed the Celtics last night.

And in all the makings, like Fando wanted me to do a bet yesterday and I didn't want to pick a winner for the game because I was really worried about the game.

The Celtics had played a bunch of games the last two weeks.

And Charlotte basically looked like a better, faster version of the Celtics because they have a similar style in some ways, right.

Charles Lee was with Missoula.

They push it more than the Celtics did.

LaMelo week by week house just is starting to seem more sophisticated with that.

Like he's not seeming like he's trying to play in an all-star game anymore.

He's actually in real time looking like a guy who's running a team again.

And then the Miller con combo, they're terrifying.

I mean, as a seven or an eight seed, this is terrifying now house.

So I'm not terrified.

And you just hit on to me what is the most important ingredient, which is the development of Lomelo Ball.

Is he going to end up?

When it comes to be playoff time and they are up against Detroit or Boston or the New York Knicks?

Are they going to present as a serious basketball team with Lomelo Ball at the tip of the spear?

That's the big sort of open question to me.

And your dubiousness, it sounds like.

Well, you know...

For a couple reasons.

In the first place.

Teams like this that pull it all together in the second half of the season and go on a run a regular season run like this they tend to lose in the first or second round.

But think about that, though.

Second round would be an amazing achievement for them.

That's what happened with the Curry Clay Warriors that first year when they upset Denver.

That's my point.

To make the second round as a 7 or an 8 seed would be significant.

I don't think there's anybody on Charlotte that is as good as Steph Curry.

That's all.

What do you think, Peter?

Are we sure that they're not going to get the 6 seed?

It's in play.

They would have to basically chase down Philadelphia.

And there are a couple losses behind them.

And they'd have to leapfrog.

Miami and Orlando.

There's some interesting future bets with them too.

Um, like house.

Do you think it's realistic in any way, shape or form that they could upset the Knicks Cleveland Boston, whoever is in that one, two spot at the only one that would surprise me is Detroit.

But I do feel like they could, I don't know.

I'm not, I'm just not ruling it out, I guess is my point.

Um, And there were bets on about how far teams go in the playoffs.

I'm looking it up.

To advance to the, this is one of the Raheem favorites bets.

So for them to advance to the Eastern finals.

Wow.

I'm just saying, I'm just giving you the odds.

Well, let me guess.

I mean, is it, it can't be less than 30 to one.

It's 10 to one.

Get out of here.

Come on.

It's 10 to 1 on FanDuel.

Come on.

They're very good.

Don't waste your money.

For them to advance to the second round is plus 360.

These are relatively low odds.

I'm not.

That's not.

You don't get anything.

The reward for that.

House, you can laugh.

Peanut knows.

Peanut's been watching, it sounds like.

You've been watching from the get-go.

It's very good.

Yeah.

House, you're not allowed.

You're off the bandwagon.

Screw you.

I mean, I'll just say off the top both my kids wore Musa Diabate jerseys to school today and the compliments that drop off were through the roof.

Oh, my God.

You're really in.

This man is, I mean, incredible.

Like, net rating when he's on the court since January 1st is, like, plus 23 or something like that.

He tried to fight Jalen Duren.

Like, he's really bringing it all to the table.

He's very aggressive.

But this team rebounds.

They lead the league in defensive rebound rate.

They're first or second in offensive rebound rate.

They do things that win in the postseason.

They defend.

When you talk about Lomelo, Lomelo's playing his ass off on defense for the first time in his life.

He's selfless with the ball.

He's moving it.

I'm really high on Charlotte.

We'll see how the matchups tinker out, but An upset in the first round probably wouldn't even be an upset, based on how well this team is playing.

And it would be interesting to see if it gets to the point, depending on where they land, whether teams are like ah, we'd rather play these other guys.

And we start doing like the top seed jockeying at the end house to put it in perspective.

So the power pole we're about to do.

It's the last 30 games, only that I'm going to give the records and net ratings.

And they are plus 11.9, which is first by three points for net rating.

They're 21 and nine in their last 30 games.

They're 12 and three in their last 15.

And to me that all this stuff really matters because the sample sizes of just throw away the first two months and really look at this stuff.

Anyway, quickly going through the power pole, because there's some teams we just don't have to talk about going from 30 to one.

There's a whole group here.

Tankapalooza, 2026.

Brooklyn is 30.

And I was surprised.

I thought Sacramento was going to be 30, but Brooklyn's 3-17 in their last 20, with a minus 161 net rating.

Minus 16 is aggressive.

They're not trying to win.

Neither is Sacramento at 29 or Washington at 28.

Utah at 27.

I just want to interrupt you.

Yeah.

Washington is trying to win.

We're taping this on Thursday.

Tonight...

With the franchise debut of this fellow right here.

That's the number of Trey Young, who's going to make his debut tonight.

They host the Utah Jazz.

What a time to come out.

A tank fest.

Well, and Utah, to its credit, played very admirably last night against the Philadelphia 76ers.

This is a back-to-back for them.

They've already.

I haven't checked the injury report in the last 10 minutes, but Keontae George was doubtful.

I mean, you know, marketing, like you were going to see.

Impingement.

We'll get to see the word impingement in somebody's knee or wrist.

This is a Washington smash spot.

If anybody, they won't help anybody.

Yeah. for listening to this tomorrow, but I'm telling you.

Peanut, do you respect the tanking of a team that's 3-12 in their last 15, but their net rating is only minus 44?

It really means they're trying to take care of the first three quarters and then just throwing the last quarter away.

I will say the Washington Wizards are playing guys who don't have headshots for their player page on NBAcom.

That's how anonymous some of these lineups are.

Juju Reese, I had to Google him and I couldn't see his photo.

I had to search for it.

That's kind of what we're dealing with here with the Washington Wizards.

We'll see how Trey Young plays.

Utah 27, Chicago's 26.

They are 2-13 in the last 15.

There's been some amazing stuff with the tanking teams that unless they're playing another tanking team, they're just losing every game.

And if you're doing parlays on different teams and you have a case like last night, like the Clippers against Indiana, just throw the Clippers money line in there, because these tanking teams don't want to win.

Dallas at number 25 and Indiana at number 24.

Dallas is 2-13 last 15.

Indiana is 4-11 last 15.

But two teams that don't seem like they want to win, but also are frisky as well.

I almost feel like I feel bad putting them in this tier, but this is what they're showing us with win-loss.

But when you watch them, I don't know.

I feel like Siakam still gives a shit, right?

When you watch some of these guys, flags come back for Dallas.

And then Memphis is the last one.

They're 20, number 23.

They're two and 15 or two and 13.

Their last 15.

So, from a tank of Palooza standpoint, Sacramento is still up a game and it's just going to be a slug fest.

And this draft is really, do you get into draft peanut?

Do you care?

Or do you just get into it after the season?

After the season?

I can't watch college basketball.

Yeah.

Too much.

House.

Have you cared at all yet, or no um, about i'm watching a ton of college basketball because i want to see who the first six or seven guys might be.

It was the least surprising thing of 2026 that when you had your conversation was it last week with jay kyle man, yeah and tate, yeah and tate about guys that you like.

And when you, when they, you said there's one guy that's caught my eye.

I, i knew it, i just knew it was that a cuff kid?

Because he's that guy.

That's the kind of kid that catches your attention and my attention.

And I think he's going to be an impact player in the NBA.

House and I have known each other since 1988.

And the Venn diagram of guys that we like without knowing the other guy likes them.

We've been batting like 97 on this.

Knipple was like that last year for us.

Yeah.

That was another one.

Yeah.

Acuff.

So there's these guards.

And this is why the Clippers pick is so interesting, where they get between five through nine from Indiana right.

If the ping pong balls fall, they would get five, six, seven, eight, or nine.

All of those picks are guys who can score.

And really interesting guards.

There's some guards with size.

There's some smaller.

But all of these guys are like, potentially like a lead offensive player.

So we'll see.

All right.

Next category.

This gets dark fast here in the power pole.

No man's land where we have new Orleans who's 11 and 19, their last 30.

And I think of the 19 losses have come down to the last minute and like 17 of them.

And now they have Murray back too.

And they really look like a competent NBA team.

So I feel like they're going to probably play themselves out of the bottom eight.

Um, and that pick that Atlanta gets, unless some sort of miracle happens, will be somewhere between nine 10, 11.

Um, and that Derek queen train will then not be as bad, right?

Michael still bad, but not maybe they escaped how bad it was.

Maybe, maybe.

First of all, just like watching them.

DeJounte Murray coming back and watching him run pick and roll with Zion Williamson and kind of seeing what Zion has missed as someone who can screen roll and create havoc, has been really nice to see for the New Orleans Pelicans.

And the fact that they finally split up the Derrick Queen Zion Williamson tandem in the starting five and they sent Derrick Queen to the bench was very necessary if they're trying to win basketball games.

Cause that was one of the worst front court tandems in the league.

But I mean, this is a there's players on this team, but they're just not very good, is how I would sum it up.

It's a collection of, it's like a fantasy basketball team and not an actual team.

And I saw the same thing with Zion and queen.

It's just two guys that just should not play basketball together.

I don't know why they didn't realize this last year, but I my guess would be Zion's not on the Pelicans next year.

Could he be on Charlotte?

Maybe he'll try to jump on the.

I noticed Lamello had this quote about him the other day about how when they throwing alley oops to him when they played together one time, how amazing it was.

It was like, Whoa, just throwing that out there.

Uh, number 21, Milwaukee, uh, And probably the next time we do a power poll, that will be probably in the mid-20s.

Giannis comes back and the team falls apart anyway.

One of the weirder seasons.

The chemistry looks bizarre.

They were 8-3 out of 11 games in one stretch.

And then Giannis comes back and they look weird.

I don't want to figure them out.

I do have a seat warm for Doc, though, for the playoffs.

I can't wait for him.

Milwaukee is out of the playoffs now.

This is a wrap.

They're not going to make it.

They're five back.

It's over.

It's done.

And then I have Golden State at 20.

Golden State is the eighth seed right now.

We're taping this before the games tonight.

They're 31 and 30.

Clippers are 30 and 31.

Portland's 30 and 33.

House, would you punt on this season if you were Golden State?

Just tell Steph Curry, actually, don't come back.

Haven't they already?

I mean, aren't we watching the punt night to night in the way that they play the matchups that they have?

What they did with Kaminga like felt like a punt to me.

Trading for a guy who seems to have some mystery illness that's never going to go away and then being surprised that he can't play.

Seems intentional.

I don't feel like it was a surprise.

Well, do you blame him?

Butler tears his ACL.

Do you blame him, Michael?

No, no.

They made a gamble and they lost.

They tried with Butler and he got hurt and that happens.

So the right thing for them to do is to find themselves away into the lottery.

And that means losing in the play-in because they're not going to drop below the 10 seed.

It's not possible.

So you get that 12-13 range and then pray for a miracle.

What rationale could there possibly be for Steph Curry to play in that play-in game?

That's the question that I pose.

When they start doing the at least with the number, when it's like, he'll be back in 10 days.

Right.

That's definitive.

When they start doing the, it's going to be at least another 10 days.

I just assume the guy's not coming back.

Like reading through the NBA tea leaves of how they talk about injuries.

I don't know.

What do you think, Michael?

I just.

I mean, this team obviously wasn't built to withstand the loss of Jimmy Butler and then Stephen Curry.

I mean, almost every team that has a worse offense than Steph went out 10 or 11 games ago is in that tank tier that we just were talking about.

So...

Steve Kerr's kind of grasping at straws trying to figure out lineup combinations, but it's just like a whack-a-mole season for Golden State.

I mean, it's just that there's no answers.

So I don't see a point, to be honest with you.

Well, let me give you this stat.

Golden State, their last 30 games, they're 15 and 15 with a net rating of plus 0.0.

They're literally dead even.

In every respect.

All right.

Next category is the water treaders.

Number 19, Portland.

Number 18, Orlando.

Number 17, Philly.

And number 16, Atlanta, who is quietly 17 and 13 in their last 30.

House, do any of these teams intrigue you in any way?

No, sir.

The one I'm interested in the most is Portland, because I do like that young thing that they have going there.

And I'm a deep Denny Obdia guy.

Love Denny.

Loved his time here in Washington.

We don't know if he's coming back.

He's had this weird back injury.

That will be the thing that sinks them.

And maybe it makes sense for him to not come back, right?

Maybe they should get one more asset in this upcoming draft.

I watched them play Charlotte on Saturday, and I thought they played really well.

And I thought they handled Charlotte's offense the best I had seen anyone handle Charlotte's offense.

They just kept throwing wings and defense and they could protect the rim.

Plus, Holiday's playing really well all of a sudden.

What do you think, Michael?

Are you intrigued by them at all?

That game against the Hornets, they were very physical.

Yeah, I thought they were good.

Yeah, to your point.

Um, they just kind of ran out of gas and they can't shoot and so i mean their offense is terrible without denny, without shade and sharp, who's also out, and it just feels like a cursed season, in a lot of respects, for the portland trailblazers, because their coach left after one game and it's just a house arrest.

That that is a factor yes, but i mean, as soon as scoot comes back, like the, the guy who's the best player on the team goes down.

So i just I don't know.

It's tough.

Scoot's had a pretty rough rollercoaster ride here.

I have a question.

Verno texted us from the Memphis game, was not pumped about what Scoot looked like in person.

I've seen him in other games.

I don't know what to make of it anymore.

Verno gave us a sell order.

He did.

He put in sell.

And I was like, dude, this has already been a huge loss.

Thank God I have all my Charlotte Hornets stock.

Here's my question.

When you vote for awards, like for Coach of the Year, how many names do you write down?

Isn't it three for Coach of the Year?

I think it's three.

Damn.

If it was five, I think Thiago Splitter.

What he's done with this team under these circumstances deserves a recognition of some sort.

What would be your three right now, Michael?

Great question.

Missoula, for sure.

Probably Jordan Ott has got to be in there.

I think Ott has to be there.

I think, honestly, Charles Lee needs to be in this conversation.

I think that's the three.

I'd probably have Charles Lee one, Missoula two, three right now.

Bickerstaff, what are you talking about?

They didn't walk in with a 60-win team this year, this Detroit situation.

It's amazing.

I voted Bickerstaff last year.

Love Bickerstaff.

I thought the Pistons would be pretty good.

Didn't think they'd be this good.

But it's not it's not that stunning to me.

I would say the Western Conference version of that is Mitch Johnson with the San Antonio Spurs.

And you could kind of have those two cross each other out if that was kind of the logic there.

The thing to me with Detroit, the reason they're so much better than they were last year, is it just comes down to during night to night.

What an absolute fucking beast he is.

He, we were talking the other day, I was talking to a friend of mine about them.

He is like the guys post-college house, the nineties guys, where we had a bunch of these guys and it always seemed like if they ever got into a fight like the world would end, like the Davis brothers and Oakley, like.

Kevin Willis, these big ass macho dudes.

And he's like a throwback to that era.

He just comes in.

He sets the tone.

Like he really, I think, intimidates some of these teams.

He's just really, really physically daunting night after night.

Plays really hard.

And between him and Cade, it's just a tough ass team.

Then you throw in the other dudes.

I'm surprised they're this good without Stewart.

I thought they would fall back.

Yeah, so Bickerstaff, your right house.

So it's probably those four.

And Mitch Johnson, I think, has to be in there, too.

You're not intrigued at all by Atlanta?

Neither of you?

I'm so out on them.

They've cost me so much money.

I know.

That's how I feel.

Every year, we say, oh, this is... What was the over-under?

46.5?

47?

Some number that was near 50?

I don't think... It's a 500 team again.

I'm not going to bet it.

I mean, yes, the injuries and everything.

And we, over uh what, uh over, enthused about the idea of Porzingis actually coming back from his illness and being able to contribute.

So the Porzingis and NAW combo adds a layer.

And then they nailed the NAW thing and still somehow stayed in the same spot.

I don't know.

Um, They've been worse since they traded Trey.

There's no part of you.

That's like when Philly gets Paul George back and Embiid's healthy, they're going to be scary because there's no part of me.

I want Pina to answer this because I'll use bad words.

Yeah, I was so close to writing a why not the Sixers column right before they lost to the zombie Denver Nuggets.

And then Embiid goes down, Paul George gets suspended and they make this trade at the deadline to get under the tax.

That signals to me and to everyone on the team.

I would assume that we're not good enough this year.

So I...

I'll look at what Daryl Morey did and I'll read that as how he assesses the team right now.

Because I just also think that that was like a bad trade for Philadelphia.

Jared McCain is just wrecking things in Oklahoma City right now.

It was a weird one.

I understood the logic.

I did not like the trade because I think they're thinking...

We need trade pieces for this summer for whatever we're going to do.

It's easier for us to trade the first round pick in these seconds than it would be just to have Jerry McCain.

I just wouldn't have traded him.

All you have to do, even if you're on the cusp of trading him, go back one more time, sit in a dark room and watch five games from last year when he looked fucking awesome.

And remember that he's 21 years old.

Who are you going to get that's better than him?

That's the point of the stupid picks.

And the reason that they have to do this is because they extended fucking Embiid unnecessarily with a huge goddamn contract.

That didn't make sense then and still doesn't make sense and will never make sense.

I think at some point I'm going to really try and get you to do the last 15 years of the front office of the Philadelphia 76ers.

That'd be a fun podcast.

It is not very good.

It is.

And we I mean, you know, even with with our friends along for the ride here.

House is wound up today from Trey Young night at the center.

All right, next category, Delusions of Granger.

Three teams, number 15, Phoenix, number 14, Miami, and number 13, Toronto.

Two of those teams are 17 and 13, and Miami is 16 and 14, their last 30.

All of them you can become slightly intrigued by if you think about it long enough.

Phoenix has the Brooks thing.

He's basically out until right before the playoffs start.

And Booker, who knows when he's coming back.

Miami.

I don't know what to make of them, but that went over the Rockets the other night at least made me go.

Okay, I'm not going to throw you in the garbage yet.

And then Toronto to me just seems like a regular season team that it's hard for me to think they're going to do anything in a round one.

Out of those three, which one would you bet on to upset somebody in a round one, Michael?

Oh, that's rough.

Definitely not the Suns because they're in the West.

Yeah, that's just not going to happen.

I think the Miami Heat are feisty, respectable.

They play defense.

The Kalel Ware Bam Adebayo duo is starting to take off. a little bit.

They're playing them more and there's been a little bit of success in a small sample size, which is nice to see.

And I will say I don't know if you watch this game house, but when they played the Wizards, Bam dunked on Kal-El Ware and then flexed on him because he didn't realize it was his own teammate.

And that was just like one of my favorite moments of the entire season.

It really tells the tale of Kaleo Ware, doesn't it?

BS.

We went to the Celtics hosting the Heat in a game in early February where the Heat got out to a huge lead.

Boston came out in that game super flat up in Boston, a home game.

They were down over...

25.

They were definitely down 20 and Boston came all the way back.

But we were so underwhelmed by Kaleo Ware we were like he was, we forgot he was even in the game and dressed, and then every time he came in the Celtics would go on like a 7-0 run Yeah.

But I agree with Pina Miami to me.

Here's the ingredient I'm interested in.

I feel like hero is there's something coming together.

I like when he went into ran.

I thought that was a sign that he must be feeling healthy again.

Hero, Norm Powell and Adebayo with Eric Spolstra.

You dismiss that team at your own peril.

I feel like

I think what's scary about them is the Hero-Powell combo of you just never know when one of them's going to go nuts.

In a playoff series.

I say this every year and it's both the dumbest point possible, but it's also important to remember.

You only have to go four and three and you advance right.

This is the problem with the Lakers.

The Lakers can win a series in seven, four games to three.

And the three losses will be by 22, 28 and 31.

And the three wins will be like three, four, seven and two.

But that's the thing.

You're basically to be barely above 500.

And when you have these two guys who can go off in any game, who don't seem to care where they play either, it could be road home.

Doesn't matter.

I think they're the scariest out of those three.

Very quietly, their defense, again, top five defense.

Net rating in the last 30, they're plus three and a half, which is a decent sign.

And we'll see with the defense if that keeps going.

I think Mitchell's scary.

As a full-court, make-your-life-miserable defender, he's really tapped into something.

So, there you go.

And Toronto...

We just want to ignore Toronto?

I'm going to give them credit for the success of this season.

They have validated the corner that they turned.

We're going to try.

We're actually going to try this year.

We have some guys.

We're going to try and play this style of up-tempo, push out, try and force turnovers.

They are so soft.

So that, I mean, I applaud them going for it the way they have.

They have no size or strength.

They wilt down the stretch.

But good job doing what they did.

So it's a glass half full for me.

But nothing interesting about them in the playoffs for my humble opinion.

Yeah, they've been fairly average for two and a half months there.

And Pena's just ready to move on.

I can just see it in his eyes.

Do you disagree?

No, I think Toronto beats up bad teams and loses to good teams.

That's kind of who they are right now.

They're the NFL team that house.

And I always, we call them the good, bad team in the NFL.

It's like, cool.

Um, all right.

Next category.

Actually, let's take a break for, we get the next category.

All right.

Next category, the LA enigmas.

We had the LA Clippers, who are 20 and 10, their last 30, and the LA Lakers, who are 17 and 13, in their last 30.

Clippers 12, Lakers 11.

I'm very focused on this Clippers renaissance because I just know the Clippers playoff bill is now.

They're like great, we can bill everybody and you're paying for all four rounds and then we'll refund you if we don't make it.

There was a Niederhauser thing happening with the Clippers.

I don't know how focused you guys were on this, but they traded Zubats.

Oh, I'm locked in.

I'm locked in.

They traded Zubats.

It really... because they got an awesome trade.

But also, I think they liked Niederhauser and wanted to play him.

And you watch him, and I've been to a couple of Kripper games.

He just says that he's trying to block everything, like literally everything.

He's trying to get to chase down blocks, challenging.

He's a maniac.

So, of course, I loved him right away.

I'm like, I'm claiming this guy.

I'm a house on his Island, all that stuff.

But the fear was this guy's so crazy.

He's going to get hurt.

Like he's, he's jumping after literally everything.

And at some point this is going to backfire.

And then, of course, last night, the stupid Indiana game that they're winning by 30.

He's trying to block somebody from behind, lands on somebody.

And it seemed like he's sprained his ankle.

I think he's going to be okay, but they got Garland back.

They're relying on Garland and Kawhi who aren't exactly Cal Ripken and Lou Gehrig.

But I think their team's pretty good.

And they also have.

The thing you would look for in an upset situation is best guy on the floor, possibly with Kawhi right.

Top seven, eight when he's healthy.

House, have you talked yourself into the Clippers at all from an upset standpoint yet or no?

Oh, absolutely, positively, yes.

For sure, yes, definitely.

Because they have really, since January 24-10, over their last 34.

It's the version of the team that we imagined when we sat down in October and it was like can this team win 50 games?

I felt like, yeah, they can.

Well, there's your proof, 24-10.

That's a pace to exceed 50 games.

The thing that is...

The straw in the drink that I'm interested to see the stirring is Matherin.

Cause you just described uh, the effort of, of Niederhouser and all that.

Although all over the place, this motivated Matherin is a thing.

And that's an ingredient, um, that I'm interested in seeing.

And I, I still trust Ty Lou.

I still trust this team to, to come out.

Yeah.

They know who they are.

And they got a couple of young guys too.

I really like Miller too.

I think, I think Miller's good.

Um, I like math, or more before.

Jada McDaniels snatched his soul from his body with me in person last week and actually made a stew out of it.

House Clippers to advance to the Western Conference semifinals.

One round.

Twelve to one on FanDuel.

That sounds like the right price.

See, that's a fair price.

I don't have any issue with that.

I already have.

You know my bet.

We did it together.

Peanut, were you a Darius Garland guy or no?

I wasn't when he was in Cleveland because of how that roster was constructed.

And I thought the overlap with Donovan Mitchell just would not work in a postseason series.

Um, it's a little different in LA where sure, his size is his size, but there's a lot of great individual defenders and there's a lot of size and depth on the wing.

So I like it a little bit more.

And also they need him.

They need someone who can push the pace.

They need his shot creation.

They need a ball handler.

They have no point guard without him.

And it's just like Kawhi Leonard running pick and rolls and Chris Dunn running around with his head chopped off.

So I, I, I, You know, he's looked a little indecisive so far.

But I think he'll settle in and be pretty important for this team.

And I'm extremely high on the Los Angeles Clippers, as per usual.

That's just my MO in life, unfortunately.

When you say they need him, I can't overstate that.

Because going to the games, and especially Minnesota did this, they don't really have a point guard.

So they're like, a lot of the times the offense runs through either Kawhi or Matherin, ironically.

Mm-hmm.

Chris Dunn, you can't run, he can't run the offense and they don't really have anybody who can just take an inbounds pass and dribble up the court and set stuff.

So Minnesota was like, cool, we're just going to make your life miserable.

And they had IO and Ant and McDaniels like picking everybody up full court.

And they were just taking the ball from the Clippers.

So just to have somebody who actually knows how to Bring the ball up, dribble through his legs, do a spin move, get over half court set.

Like they don't have anybody like that anymore.

And Harden did all of it.

So, um, I've always liked them.

I agree with you that the fit wasn't great with with Mitchell, but on the other hand that team was awesome last year with those two guys together.

And he just hasn't been healthy.

I thought it was a good gamble for them.

Um, Lakers 17, 13, their last 30 D care house.

I do not.

I am ready for this Lakers team to be out of our lives.

They don't care either.

That's the most important thing.

They have the point-to-ref differential of a 32-29 team.

They play like a team that's barely above 500.

They have that ridiculous clutch, you know, whatever they are now, 17-5 in clutch time.

But when they play games that end in double digits, they're 18-19.

That's who this team is.

That's the Lakers.

Athletic teams are a nightmare for them.

If they played Charlotte, they would be in severe trouble.

Did you ever figure out Michael, why they just kind of punted at the trade deadline under that Luke Kennard thing when there were guys out there?

Why didn't they feel like they didn't even have a puncher's chance?

It didn't seem like.

It was their strategy.

I thought it was strange.

Well, Rob Polinka said that Luke Kennard was, quote, clearly right now the game's best shooter.

So you would have anticipated he would have moved the needle for them.

It hasn't worked out that way.

No, I don't.

I mean, it's just another case of a team that clearly did not believe in itself to make a run, and deservedly so.

I think they're uh, very average.

And you know how, said those great numbers one that I don't.

I don't know if this is a number that matters, but in losses they have the worst net rating in the NBA.

So that's a, you know what I call those loud losses.

That's, that's a problem.

If you catch one of their bad games, you think they're like the worst team in the world and trade everybody.

And then the next night they went by three.

And guess what?

They went one and one in those two games.

But you saw that first game.

You're like, that team fucking sucks.

Oh, my God.

I can't believe how bad they are.

And then it's like the next night they beat Phoenix because you know Brooks and Booker aren't playing.

Lurking.

We are now in the top 10.

Well, before we get to top 10, where would you have put Charlotte House in the top 10?

Best 10 teams right now.

I would have had them 10.

Okay.

How about you, Michael?

I like where you have them.

I don't think we want to spoil it right now, but that's probably where I would put them too.

Okay, fair.

Lurking, I have four teams, and none of them are Charlotte.

The Houston Rockets, 18 and 12 in their last 30.

10 and 5 in their last 15.

Minnesota, 19 and 11 in their last 30, plus 4.9 rating.

Impressive.

11 and four in the last 15.

The Celtics are 21 and nine.

I have them number eight plus 9.3 rating.

I'll explain why I have them eight in a second.

New York 17 and 13 plus 5.8.

And New York is a classic.

Catch them on the right day.

And you're convinced they're making the finals.

Catch them on the wrong day.

And you're convinced that they're going to trade everybody except Jalen Brunson after the season.

I'll go in order.

Houston.

Signs of life are still too flawed for you, Michael.

I think the book has been written on this team.

And once Steven Adams went out, that was it for me, to be honest.

Like he was so critical to their identity on both ends.

And, you know, they still grab a bunch of offensive rebounds, but they don't grab half of them.

Like he was so integral to how they played.

And you combine that with obviously the loss of Fred.

And I just think it's too much to overcome for this team.

Couldn't agree more.

And I know House agrees because we've texted about it regularly.

And bet accordingly, yes.

Number nine, Minnesota.

I still feel like I've felt this way all year that there was value in Minnesota and that people just weren't on Minnesota correctly from Minnesota.

Checking the prototype of if a team is going to actually win the title, what do you need to have?

I need to have one of the best seven players in the league.

I need to be able to play defense at a really high level.

I need a couple of heat check guys.

They do check all of it.

It's been a little disjointed, but even now, how's their 33 to one to win the title?

That just seems out of whack to me.

Yeah, I mean, they are.

And yet I don't really want to bet it either.

But it just seems like that line seems too high.

When we're done, I'm betting that.

You have to bet it.

33-1 is nuts.

They made the Western Conference Finals two consecutive years.

And we've had teams ahead of them in both of those years.

Top 10 in both offense and defense.

Rating wise.

And, you know, it's kind of the same team.

We're waiting around.

They are incented to get to the three seed, I think because you definitely want to play whoever ends up in the six.

Yeah.

Well, they're not afraid to play Denver at all if that ends up being the matchup.

Like they would welcome it.

Yes, I agree with that.

And the way this is lining up, what's that going to be, the 4-5?

I mean House, you could argue wherever they end up 3-4, 5-6 they're feeling really good about playing the Lakers.

They're feeling really good about playing Denver, Milwaukee, Houston.

I'm not Milwaukee, Minnesota.

Oh, what am I doing?

I'm blanking.

Houston, Denver, or the Lakers would be the three, right?

Yes, yes.

What an old guy moment I just said.

I just said Milwaukee.

I'm glad you caught yourself.

That was great.

But yeah, all three of those teams, would they be afraid of any of those three?

No way.

Definitely not the Lakers.

You know, if the Suns were to somehow get up there at six and Minnesota goes up to three, just like there's a lot of great matchups for them.

I will talk about this later, probably, but I personally would not.

I don't want the Denver Nuggets in a seven game series like the healthy Denver Nuggets.

I just don't want that in the first round.

Well, I mean, I can't wait to talk about Denver, but the question would be are we getting a healthy Denver Nuggets?

Very fair.

So Fando has the Timberwolves.

Plus 100 to advance to round two, which is a line that I thought was not as good as I thought it would be.

But they must be building in.

They think they have a chance to get the three seed.

I'm scared of Minnesota.

As I said, I saw them in person last week.

And I think with Io and Ant and McDaniels all out there together, it's a truly scary defensive team.

With Gobert behind them, I really think there's a high ceiling for them. um, to defend Celtics.

Number eight.

I don't want to talk about them.

Number we, we just, it's, it's just, we don't know what we're getting with Tatum.

I just.

It's like we might as well talk about the middle East and try to figure out what's happening there.

Number seven.

Can I give you, can I give you a quick Celtics stat before we move on?

So their defense since January 1st, with Derek White on the court, is the exact same number as the Spurs with Victor Wimonyama on the court.

Derek White just won the Defensive Player of the Month for the Eastern Conference and is just, he's so phenomenal.

I just wanted to shout out Derek White.

His season has been so terrific.

He's like a paint-protecting guard, one of the best paint protectors in the NBA.

It's wild.

He is, I think, in the defensive player of the year conversation if Wemby doesn't get the games.

I don't think he'll win it, but I do think when people write the pieces he'll have to be mentioned.

Now, right.

Because of all the advanced stats and the protection shit.

I will absolutely write that.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

You know what's crazy, House?

I always used to tell House one of the easiest great bets if you're doing a parlay was to put the Derek White one block in.

And he Any semi-important or important game, he was just getting a block.

The market has finally adjusted.

He's now like minus 340.

It would be like one plus Derek White block.

It's minus 340.

It used to be like plus 120, minus 110, plus 105.

And now they treat him like he's Rudy Gobert.

It's hilarious because he always gets a block.

And he gets it early.

It's like he blocks somebody from behind in the first four minutes of the game.

It's like, yeah, we won.

Well, we'll see what happens.

Not worth talking about.

And then too much unknown.

Not a lot of unknown with the Knicks at this point.

17 and 13 in their last 30, plus 5.8.

You know, Sunday, they looked great against the Spurs.

It was also an afternoon game on the East Coast at MSG.

And San Antonio couldn't make a shot.

Um, I still don't love how Brunson dependent they are.

I still don't understand the Mitchell Robinson can't play back to back thing.

Although if they're saving them for the playoffs, great.

The bridges part is weird.

The part where nobody guards Josh Hart really at all.

If it's a good team, like that's part of the strategy.

So there's some things going against them.

Is he, have you seen anything that makes you think that they're a realistic finals team?

Peanut?

I don't want to come across as a Knicks hater.

I just.

When your two best players are so weak defensively, it is really hard to win four playoff series.

And, you know, I was watching the Oklahoma City Thunder game that they just lost the other night.

And you watch crunch time of that game.

And I have a theory that Mike Brown is playing Landry Shamit in crunch time, so that teams will hunt Landry Shamit instead of Jalen Brunson.

That's something that is going to happen over and over and over again in the playoffs.

We see it every year.

I think that when you run up against a team, like if they were to play the Cleveland Cavaliers, James Harden would bring him into the action every single possession.

So it's just it's tough.

It's really tough.

You've got to have elite shot making.

You've got to be really cohesive with your defensive rotations.

And, you know, Mitch Robinson's only playing like, what, 20 minutes a game?

That's his limit.

So it's just it's really difficult.

There's just not a margin for error.

House isn't a huge fan.

I am.

You're wrong.

You're a huge fan?

When did you become a huge fan?

No, I have futures on the Knicks.

I think that they, especially after watching that Oklahoma City game.

That was like validation for me.

That felt like a very high level of play validation of the Knicks being able to get in and go with anybody.

Now, I know no J-Dub for OKC.

Did he retire?

Is J-Dub ever coming back?

The Knicks have the best since mid-January.

They have the best defense in the NBA by almost a full point per 100 possessions.

The Knicks...

So there's something inside the chemistry there that is happening.

And when we just watched a 100-3 to 100 game and they were two missed threes, that's toe-to-toe with the team that I think is still the best team in the NBA.

I have the Knicks up there.

I think they're too low in this power poll.

One of the things that I don't like about them surfaced last night is they're down three rebound, waste 10 seconds and then called the timeout.

So there's six seconds left.

And it was just like, I just don't think they have one of the best coaches in the league.

I would just say that we've seen, we've had a lot of bad bats with Mike Brown.

He's solid, can take it to the to the game seven of around one.

But it was just like such an obvious call the timeout seven seconds before you called it.

And the irony is they ended up getting good threes and missed the threes.

But, um, I really liked Ananobi down the stretch in that game.

You know, Zach and I talked Sunday about the best perimeter guys.

And we were talking about the two Thompsons.

I had Jada McDaniels, uh, Doran Caruso.

And then I think we had Ananobi.

I think we probably had Ananobi too low.

Cause it was, it was really interesting watching Shea try to unlock him.

Like Shea, trying to get all the stuff he normally gets, but trying to solve this taller guy who's just a nightmare.

Um, yeah, I'm probably a little too low in the next.

I just think they've been too erratic.

Like every time I start to buy into it, you turn it on and they're down 17 and, like you know, frigging Atlanta or something.

Um, that was my toughest one.

So I had them seven.

I had the wild cards, Charlotte six, Denver five.

The Charlotte thing is just a pure um Going on the history of when teams go to this level in January and February, and we have a tendency not to take that seriously enough.

And I'm just taking it seriously.

Like, I just think they've proven now that they're a really good team.

They're young, they're healthy.

I like having younger teams going into the playoffs.

We talked about them already.

Pina, you just wrote this huge piece about Jokic, who I have number five.

They're 16 and 14 in their last 30.

They're seven, eight in their last 15.

You wrote the thing that as a longtime Jokic guy has concerned me that his stats, the stats that really made him special, especially this year, are going a little sideways.

Because I update my stats every week for the MVP and All-NBA and stuff.

And he was always 60% field goal, this stuff.

All of a sudden, the stats were looking a little more normal for him than they were.

And it's because, since he came back, He's not quite the same guy, and you laid this out in the piece today.

So for the audience, tell them what you found.

Yeah, I mean his shooting numbers from the floater zone, which is his bread and butter, the spot up threes that he gets on the pick and pop with Jamal Murray, even his free throws.

Just everything is is down kind of dramatically from what it was pre knee injury.

And that doesn't even begin to talk about.

Like the defense, which I've always thought he was a little bit of an underrated defender.

Yeah.

And right now it's just it's tough.

I mean, there's some just peak Matador situations.

I mean the game against the Minnesota Timberwolves with Anthony Edwards just kind of skating past him on the perimeter was really rough.

Even like Keontae George.

And when they nearly lost the Utah Jazz the other day.

Keontae George is just going to the rim left and right.

So I think they're trying to lose and they still almost beat Denver.

So I think the defense stinks, and that's tough.

But for me, health is just a huge component here.

And I think the way that they play is different without the guy in the dunker spot like Gordon or Peyton Watson, to threaten and space the floor like that.

So I think when they get healthy and they get bigger...

I just, I love Jokic.

I can't quit this guy.

He's still so phenomenal.

That game he had against the Celtics without Jamal Murray in the second half was just like I am, the best player on the planet.

So that's why I wonder like how much of this is rust and how much of this is health.

Because if you watch that Celtic game, he looked like Jokic.

I didn't, I wanted to put them higher than five and the sample size was just too big.

But I also think they don't have Peyton Watson who turned into the super sub for them.

And then I have Gordon, who's the third most important guy in the team and the guy that swings them from a first or second round team to a finals team.

So five seemed okay.

We have some Denver bets.

Are you concerned at all?

No, I'm not concerned at all because I believe that these guys that have been suffering these injuries, laboring to get back, will get back.

And that we will see the full version of this team right as the playoffs get going.

And that is exciting.

That's what we're after.

I think you have Denver in exactly the right place, even though they are behind both Houston and Minnesota in the standings right now.

It's the potential, it's the pedigree, and I think it's right to give them that respect, give them that nod, even though the game against Utah it's really.

Well, they're short on wings.

Cam Johnson's who I was probably too hard on the other night.

Cause I think he's hurt.

Um, and certainly it seems to be like gutting it out.

But at the same time, like there's a piece to Denver.

Murray's been so good this year.

Um, And Jokic obviously is Jokic.

And I do wonder if it's tough sometimes.

Gordon figured it out.

Gordon has figured out exactly when he's healthy, how to play with those guys, how to get all his shots on the right things.

But I do wonder sometimes, with some of these other wing dudes and supporting characters like somebody like Peyton Watson, who was doing a lot of the stuff that he was doing without Jokic, or Cam Johnson, who doesn't touch the ball for 40 minutes and then all of a sudden is being asked to take the two biggest shots of the game.

Jokic is both awesome to play with, but also in the last five, six minutes where these two guys are doing everything and then all of a sudden it's like okay, can you make this one shot.

I haven't touched the ball in an hour.

You're bringing Gordon back, you're bringing Watson back, and you're just doing this in real time as the playoffs are starting.

It really makes me nervous.

I think they have some stuff to figure out.

And I don't think Jokic is 100% every game is the other thing.

There might be games where maybe his knee is a little more sore than the other games.

That's not the game he was great.

If he's playing back-to-backs, if you're playing, especially when we have those series where you're just playing every other night for two weeks and he's not 100 healthy.

That makes me nervous.

Okay, the contenders.

Cleveland number four, Detroit number three, and San Antonio number two.

House, do you agree with that order?

Yes, no issue with it whatsoever.

I would have the Knicks in here ahead of Cleveland, but I don't have any issue.

So you would move the Knicks up to five.

Okay.

Pina, any questions with that order?

I would have Cleveland three and Detroit four.

Interesting.

I didn't quite have the balls to do that, but I do feel more comfortable if I, if it was a bet, your life situation it's 55 45 to me going toward Cleveland to make the finals over Detroit.

If those are my only two picks.

Yeah.

Cleveland was just in Brooklyn the other day and someone there at the game told me that they were just completely unafraid of the Detroit Pistons and they had just lost to Detroit, without donovan mitchell and james harden, in an overtime game that they should have won in detroit, and then they beat them with harden uh, after that um, and i just think that this team is just ridiculous.

I think they have so much shooting, so much wing depth uh, and i, you know the hardened thing is the hardened thing.

We'll see how that goes in the postseason.

I know the hardened thing, the thing of sucking when the put, when the games most matter.

I would say this is, you know, not to make excuses, but this is probably the best situation that he's been in for a variety of reasons and donovan mitchell being there, and yeah, i don't even need to go through it, but it's, it's a good situation for him.

Honeymoon harden, a joe house favorite 17-5 since mid-January, this Cleveland team, and something outstanding since the All-Star break, since the acquisition of Harden right.

Only one or two lost.

The rating is outstanding.

I love this Cavs team, but we are already getting these little, oh, Donovan Mitchell's got to grow.

Oh, we saw Harden with the thumb, and Jared Allen left the game.

Highest ceiling in the East.

I feel like I've talked about this a couple of times in the pot already, but the the, the Detroit, just really only having Kate at the end of these games, I don't think is sustainable for three straight playoff rounds.

As great as he is,

Like they just don't have that extra guy who I can trust to create a shot.

And that's one of the things with Charlotte, you know where, if Charlotte plays Detroit around one, Charlotte has five guys who can create a shot, you know, and if they're going to go toe to toe, they're going to be able to at least feel comfortable doing it.

I just feel like we're going to see Charlotte versus Detroit in round one.

I think that fight was like a pre it.

There's some sort of weird karmic thing.

I feel like we're going to see it.

I don't know.

And I think Charlotte could beat them.

San Antonio number two here.

And I would say probably a half a level above these two teams for me from a ceiling standpoint the youth and the I don't know.

I just really value having been there before.

We've been watching this forever.

It's so rare for a team to just be like, we're here.

Oh, now we're beating everybody.

Like it's never works out that way.

Um, we've really only seen that with the 86 rockets, even the 95 magic the year before they got a taste of it.

I think if I'm remembering it correctly, but I don't know.

I, I just, For them to just win the title this year just seems so foreign to my brain.

Do you have a take on this, Michael?

I think they're definitely a title contender.

I'm really interested to see their next seven games, I think it is.

They have Pistons, Clippers...

Rockets, Celtics, Nuggets, Hornets.

And then back, they go on the road.

Those are all home games.

They go on the road to play the Clippers again.

So I want to see that stretch.

I want to see if they go five and two, six and one really assert themselves, really care about winning those games.

I don't know.

We'll see.

But they're definitely a championship contender for me.

Especially since they changed their starting five, moving Champagne in for Harrison Barnes.

They've been absolutely terrific.

So Yeah, Wemby.

I mean, Wemby is Wemby.

I mean, he's absolutely insane on defense completely controls basketball games without touching the ball.

They're a championship contender for sure.

13-2 in their last 15, plus 7.5 rating in their last 30.

We haven't really talked about it, but I love Harper.

I don't know.

It's weird to call him the X factor of the playoffs, because I don't even think he's one of their four best players.

But I've been so impressed by the defense with him and just the athleticism.

And I don't even know what he's going to be.

I really almost want to study him in these next two weeks.

I don't know what his ceiling is as a player.

I don't know who to compare him to.

But I just like everything he does.

I just think he's like a pure basketball player, who gives a shit who's multi-skilled, who can play with or without the ball, and is just additive.

I really like him.

I think it's literally the very best possible situation for him to have landed in the draft.

Yeah.

For him to arrive with this group, the way that this group has come together this year in this unexpected way.

They're all lifting each other up.

Every move is a Midas touch move.

The Champagny thing, underrated, but look at what an impact it has.

And Basel and Castle, it's just such a tough team.

So fast uh, capable of imposing their own physicality on teams.

I just love the way that they go at okc.

Like i, they could play.

If you want to, let you know.

Skip to the western conference finals and let me have a 15 game series of okc against san antonio that i'm here for it.

Sign me up.

What a cool series and what a great thing for the league that would be.

This is why, when we talk about the face of the league and all that stupid shit like The league's always going to be fine.

There's always going to be the next team coming and there's always going to be a rivalry we couldn't have expected.

Champagny started out on Philly, by the way, House.

Would you put that in your 15 years of negligent Philly moves that they had Champagny briefly?

I mean it doesn't rise to the level of the Paul George signing or the bridges trade.

It's not quite up there.

It's moving bridges at the draft.

But how, san antonio?

550 to minus 550 to make it at around one and then to advance to the western finals?

What do you think those odds are, san antonio, to be in round three, to make it to the western finals?

Uh, at a less less than Minus.

No, not minus.

Plus 160?

Any idea, Pina?

I'm out of my depth right now.

Sorry.

They are minus 105 to make round three, basically even odds to win two series i got.

I was like that has no playoff games with this nucleus like that's.

This is the reason i heard me catch myself.

I was about to say like minus one.

I was like no, there's no way.

But that's the thing and that's.

I think that the bigger point of this season is some of these teams like charlotte, san antonio, that might just, might just be ready to win some playoff games.

San antonio certainly, charlotte maybe Um, and then we have OKC, number one.

I don't know.

Like I I'm sure J Dub, they're taking everything easy.

I think big picture when you have these five, six year runs where you're playing a hundred games a year.

It's probably a good thing to have these guys not playing 80 game seasons than doing these playoff runs.

But have you seen anything from OKC?

They're 20 and 10 in their last 30.

Have you seen anything from them in the last two months that made you nervous?

Michael?

Not nervous.

No, I mean, Hartenstein's Isaiah Hartenstein's calf is recurring injury also that you want to keep an eye on.

Alex Caruso fell on his hip last night against the Knicks.

And he's just one of the more reckless players in the league.

And he had to leave, didn't come back.

So injuries are kind of a factor here for this team.

And obviously, J.W., as you said, is a big one.

That's kind of a mystery right now.

So what is this injury? at the hamstring.

It takes forever to get recurring.

Yeah.

So that's a tough one, but they just keep winning games.

They still have an elite defense.

They have Shay who makes every single shot he takes.

So I'm not too worried about them.

House.

I loved that game against the Knicks.

I loved them going into Madison Square Garden for a prime time.

The whole league is watching.

And the way that they came out and took advantage immediately of collapsing to the middle.

And Chet Holmgren getting touch after touch after touch and knocking them down.

That was like a championship pedigree kind of matchup.

And to the Knicks credit, I mean, what the Knicks did in the third quarter was awesome.

Gave it right back to them.

But that was very reassuring.

It restored my faith in what they're capable of, what their next level looks like and where all the guys come in.

Wiggins had a dunk.

I was like yeah remember daddy, that's that's how they, that's what they do, that's how they do it.

And so yeah, i was fired up.

Um, from that game.

Plus, they're america's villains, and shea wore a giant like weird fur coat thing like whatever the hell that was like they're just weird.

The thunder like just getting their weird on.

What was that?

They're so strange?

Um, if you had to help chet with his hair facial hair situation house what would you recommend?

Is there anything differently he could do?

Would you go bigger beard?

Would you go longer, shaggier hair?

No, no, no.

Shave head?

I'd go shorter up top.

I would bring it down because the problem is it looks like his head and face are about two and a half feet long.

When you go from the top of the hair to his chin it feels like you got, you know almost, almost a full yard, almost a full football yard to get from the top.

Anyway, I would try and tighten it up a little bit.

I think I would go tighter on the hair.

And I think I would go beard, but longer.

I'd go longer face.

Like you zag.

It's like your face looks too long.

I'd go longer with the beard and really try to look more intimidating.

Could also do maybe a handlebar type of type of thing.

Just trying to think of like, I was watching shot caller last week.

Some of the looks in that movie like maybe because ultimately like, his toughness is going to be the key to the team right?

You want people like, oh shit, Chet, he looks like a badass.

They might have to play the Pistons.

You know, Jalen Duren, just coming in like, okay.

Okay, young boy.

I don't think there's any facial hair construct that's going to take Bull Duren off.

The case of Chet Holmgren.

House, did you have an opinion on a Con Canipple nickname before we go?

2k was awesome if we're gonna do 2k for conca nipple and you want to do boulder and those are two like modern guys did you like the giddler or no so many i mean in our lives we're not allowed to talk about that guy not allowed to talk about him were you down with 2k michael Yeah, sure.

Let's go with that.

He's kind of like a one name person, though.

You know what I mean?

Like, yeah, I'll know who we're talking about.

Yeah.

God, he had one of those flare screen last night's where.

I don't know how many guys in history have been able to run that play with the half second pick, where they just get a three off.

It's basically him and Clay, right?

Not counting Curry.

Curry doesn't count for any of these things.

But you know what I mean?

Reggie Miller.

I'm talking normal.

Ray Allen.

I don't know.

I'm talking normal players.

Okay, okay.

I honestly don't even know if Ray Allen got it off like this.

Who else is on that list?

Conn Knipple is just... I don't even know what to say.

His shot release is insane.

I don't understand it.

He's 20...

The fact that he's not in his ninth year makes my brain melt out of my ears.

It doesn't compute, the fact that this is a rookie.

His thing about how he was playing in men's leagues when he was 14, and that's one of the reasons, because he's used to playing basketball with grown men and knowing where to go and what to do and get the ball.

It's like, maybe he stumbled onto some new way to...

Maybe we need to dump AU and just put 14-year-olds in men's leagues, and that's the new strategy.

That's the advantage of the international players.

Danny Adia was playing with grown men.

Or my guy, Hugo.

Best net rating in the league, Hugo Gonzalez.

Got to give out Mahmoud Abdul-Raouf if we're going to talk about quick releases.

Got to do it.

That's a good one, too.

It's almost weirder when the guy's 6'7", 6'8", 6'6", and... just needs like a half second.

I don't know.

It's going to be really interesting.

I thought how Portland defended him was probably the blueprint in the playoffs, where they just like crashed every, every top of the line screen.

They just put bigger guys on them or guys that were the same size, and they really were determined not to let him get off.

Um, but then Miller got going.

That's the problem with that team.

Um, house I'm admitting defeat on Brandon Miller versus scoot Henderson. rare draft loss for me.

I still think I'm in the winning side of the of these lottery pick ones, but that it's going to be.

It's going to be now.

Okay.

I remember making fun of KOC about it on my pod that he was wrong.

And I might've gotten freaked out by the car accident.

Whatever happened or not, the car with a Wasn't there a gun?

There was some sort of bad Brandon Miller story for the draft.

Yeah, very bad.

Yeah, I didn't like that.

Turned out that might have been an overreaction.

I've learned some lessons there about maybe not overreact to an incident.

But yeah, I think that was finally lost.

All right, Michael Pina, you can read him at The Ringer.

Listen to him on a bunch of our podcasts.

Joe House, Marine Gambling Show, Fairway Wrong.

Go to the players next week.

Yeah, we're going to be down in TPC Sawgrass with all the big boys.

Unbelievable.

The greatest video game golf course of all time.

The 17th.

The best.

We'll be there.

All right.

Thanks, guys.

Good to see you.

Thanks, Bill.

All right.

That's it for the podcast.

Thanks to the Dannys.

Thanks to House and Pina.

Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well.

Don't forget to vote for CR Month on the Rewatchables Instagram feed.

Don't forget about new Rewatchables coming on Monday.

Fargo.

And if you missed the one we did this week, it's Sicario.

I'm going to be back.

Sunday night with Zach Lowe.

We're going to be coming on live on Netflix right after the Rocket Spurs game, which should be a really, really good game.

But we're going to find out what Jason Tatum, we think, looks like.

We're going to find out what Cooper Flagg thought about playing in Boston five years ahead of when he officially joins the Celtics.

And we're going to find out how the weekend went.

So can't wait to do it.

And good luck to Jason Tatum.

I'll see you guys on Sunday.

Enjoy the weekend.

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[The Ringer Sports Forecast: NFL Offseason Chaos and NBA Power Poll Analysis]-[NFL Free Agency Predictions, an NBA Power Poll, and Tatum’s Return With Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, Michael Pina, and Joe House]

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The NFL Offseason: A League in Flux

The Kyler Murray and Malik Willis Dominoes

Panic Trades and Market Shifts

NBA Power Poll: The Rise of the Hornets

The Contenders and the Enigmas

Coaching and Future Outlook

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[The Ringer Sports Forecast: NFL Offseason Chaos and NBA Power Poll Analysis]-[NFL Free Agency Predictions, an NBA Power Poll, and Tatum’s Return With Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, Michael Pina, and Joe House]

📋 Summary

The NFL Offseason: A League in Flux

The Kyler Murray and Malik Willis Dominoes

Panic Trades and Market Shifts

NBA Power Poll: The Rise of the Hornets

The Contenders and the Enigmas

Coaching and Future Outlook

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🎯Key Sentences

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📖 Transcript

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