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[Crystal Ball Edition: Random Predictions and Future Trends for the New Year]-[New Year’s Crystal Ball Episode]

After Hours · B2 · 2019-01-02

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📋 Summary

2019 Crystal Ball: A Deep Dive into Future Trends

In this special "crystal ball edition" of the After Hours podcast, hosts Yang Mi and Felix Miheor engage in a series of wide-ranging, speculative predictions for the coming year. From the evolution of big tech and the retail landscape to shifts in global demographics and cultural habits, the conversation offers a thought-provoking look at the trajectories of various industries.

Tech Giants: Consolidation and Monetization

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the shifting strategies of tech behemoths. Felix predicts that Apple will acquire Netflix, arguing that as hardware differentiation narrows, Apple needs a "compliment"—media content—to stay competitive. Conversely, Yang suggests Apple will launch a comprehensive loyalty program, an "Amazon Prime" equivalent, to secure recurring revenue and diversify its metrics beyond pure profitability.

Regarding Amazon, the hosts foresee the company becoming a dominant force in digital advertising, stealing share from Google and Facebook by leveraging its unique "purchase data" and insights into consumer "price sensitivities." Meanwhile, they predict the "cloud bubble" may burst for smaller players, while major cloud providers like AWS continue to dominate.

The Changing Retail and Service Landscape

Innovation in food delivery and retail is a major theme. The hosts predict the rise of "delivery-only restaurant brands" and "cloud kitchens," suggesting that delivery platforms like Uber Eats and Grubhub will shift toward creating their own restaurant brands to ensure platform reliance. Simultaneously, they express skepticism regarding Amazon’s "bricks and mortar" retail efforts, noting that physical retail is "way more complicated than they think."

Societal Shifts and Cultural Predictions

Beyond technology, the podcast touches on significant cultural and societal changes:

  • Sustainability: Felix predicts the "death of the plastic straw," citing the immense power of social media (specifically YouTube videos) in driving a 5,000% increase in demand for paper straws.
  • Authenticity: Yang predicts that "acne will make a big comeback on Instagram," as users grow "nauseous" with the "manufactured, manicured lives" currently dominating the platform, signaling a rising demand for "authenticity."
  • Demographics: The hosts discuss a long-term reversal in the immigration debate, driven by aging populations in mature economies. They argue that as labor forces shrink, the competition for talented young people from Africa and Latin America will become intense, forcing a re-evaluation of immigration policies.

Economic and Political Outlook

Felix offers a macro-thematic warning about the impact of "rising interest rates," suggesting that the unwinding of corporate debt—particularly "triple B or near junk debt"—could lead to significant economic "ugliness." On the political front, Yang makes a bold prediction that Donald Trump will announce he is not running for re-election in 2019, finding the ongoing political environment "untenable."

Conclusion: Looking Ahead

As the hosts wrap up, they reflect on the nature of their predictions, acknowledging that while they are "random," these exercises help illuminate the underlying tensions in industries ranging from professional sports (the decline of baseball vs. the rise of esports) to the future of healthcare. Whether discussing the "fissures in the EU" or the future of "autonomous driving lanes," the episode serves as a fascinating snapshot of the anticipated disruptions facing the global economy.

🎯Key Sentences

1
We're way ahead of the curve.
2
Is this because you're not motivated?
3
Well if it gives you any consolation I too don't know nothing.
4
Emphasis on random.
5
Wait, you're really going out.
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📝Key Phrases

1
ahead of the curve
2
make a resolution
3
points of differentiation
4
recurring revenue
5
margin erosion
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📖 Transcript

Ted Audio Collective Hi everyone!
You're listening to After Hours!
I'm Yang Mi and I'm here with Felix Miheor.
Hi guys! Hey! So we are taping this a little bit in advance because as you listen to this we're presumably on vacation.
We're way ahead of the curve.
Given the time of year, I thought I'd start out by asking if you guys are going to make any New Year's resolutions.

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