NBA Hot Takes, OKC’s Red Flag, and Giannis vs. Father Time With Kirk Goldsberry and Joe House | The Bill Simmons Podcast

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I put up a rewatchables on Monday night as part of CR month.

We did the nice guys.

We have LA confidential coming next Monday.

Speaking of movies, I was also on the big picture this week.

They did a 1988 movie draft, Sean, Amanda, CR myself.

Uh, we drafted all the best 1988 movies.

Great, phenomenal year, diehard, big midnight run.

So, uh, It was kind of a bloodbath, but I had a good time.

I hadn't been on that one in a while, so you can check that out.

That's on Netflix as well.

This podcast, if you forgot, was on Netflix.

We're going to be live on Sunday on Netflix, I think after Nick's Thunder.

So it'll probably be 7 o'clock PT range on Netflix.

And then, if you're not tired of me by that point, April 8th, Wednesday night.

San Francisco.

Yeah.

The rewatchables.

We've never been in San Francisco.

We've been talking about it for a while.

We're talking about, could we go to Seattle?

Maybe San Francisco.

We're going to San Francisco.

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And there's going to be, uh, there's going to be laughs.

There's going to be inappropriate stuff.

I, I can't wait.

So San Francisco, I can't believe this has never happened, but it's happening.

It's the least we could do after a disappointing warrior season.

So there you go.

Coming up on this podcast.

Kurt Goldsberry and I are going to talk about the NBA and all the stuff that went on last night and some subplots as we head toward the end of the season.

We brought in Joe House to join us for the tail end of that.

And then we had this big longevity project we wanted to talk about with Giannis.

And this thing I asked Kurt to do research on.

And the thesis is basically, are there historical signs that you should not trade for Giannis?

Pretty fascinating stuff.

We're not saying we're not advocating one way or the other.

It is just, hey, there's some stuff going on here that we should really seriously discuss.

So that is the podcast.

We're going to take a break.

We're going to bring in our friends from Pearl Jam and that Kirk Goldsberry.

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All right.

We are recording this.

It is a little past 10 o'clock am Pacific time.

You can do a bunch of basketball.

It's a great sports weekend.

Joe house is going to join us in a little bit with Kirk Goldsberry.

I want to talk about, um, okay.

See Boston, all MBA Detroit Atlanta Houston Minnesota, a bunch of stuff we saw last night just cause I thought big picture.

It got my brain turning on some stuff.

Okay.

See Boston.

There was some stuff with OKC that I thought you know.

I don't want to say I'm concerned about a team that's potentially going to win 140 games in two years.

Won the title last year.

There's a too many guys thing with them that I'm going to be really interested to see how it resolves.

I am a big believer in the too many guys theory, in that in the playoffs especially, you can get away winning a title with seven.

You really need eight.

Nine is fine, but it's probably around eight.

They have 11.

And I thought last night one of the reasons they seemed a little disjointed was because all their guys are back.

And you have, like McCain, Joe Wallace, you have all these guys coming off the bench and you just don't need 11 guys.

When you watch them, What are you looking at when you're projecting them for May-June?

Is just Isaiah Joe's out, McCain's out?

Where do we land ultimately?

And what's their crunch time five is the other question for me.

Yeah, the crunch time five and even their starting five is a fair question.

Last night I thought there was a really big red flag with them in a specific way as we look forward into the playoffs Bill.

And that was j-dub, who is clearly their number two offensive weapon.

Yeah, and they are very deep, but i think one of the reasons they didn't win last night is because j-dub wasn't simply at the level we expect him to be at.

I think in the playoffs last year he played 35 minutes, was 21, 6 and 5 and had like 40 point outbursts and was the best player in the game and some playoff wins and the defense too, Yeah.

And he was two and nine last night.

Yeah.

And that's just not going to get it done.

So I wouldn't say he's like the fully there Pippen, but in an NBA playoffs it's very unforgiving in the West.

You need a clear number two.

And I think one of the things with too many guys thing is like okay, we have AJ Mitchell and McCain and that's a really nice story.

But they're filling in for the shots that I would expect J-Dub to be taking and making and putting pressure on the defense in a really different way than Shea does.

So for me, it's not just a too many guys thing.

It's too many guys trying to fill in for a clear void where Jalen Williams used to be.

Right.

And they're looking at.

Can we ramp him up over the next month and get him back to where he was last year?

The playoffs is a little more forgiving for them, because they're basically going to be playing probably the Clippers.

Right.

Could be, could be the warriors.

Like who knows?

Like, whatever they'll be, they'll be able to.

Phoenix would probably be the friskiest they could play.

But I, I assume Phoenix is going to be the seven seed, um, with the Williams piece.

And this happened in the OKC Boston game too, which Tatum didn't play in, in OKC.

And then they both played last night.

I was surprised.

Um, how physically I don't want to say overwhelming, but confident Boston was with the size advantages they had.

And this is two straight games now, with Jalen really being able to attack door and nobody really goes at door like that.

You know like like, really like being able to bang him and and have him going backwards instead of forwards.

Um, and then you know they.

And then when you have Tatum too, who I thought the second quarter was his best stretch of the of the year,

And in general, his game was really good.

And that was the best Tatum and Brown together game.

But the wings they had in the size they had, I thought was a real problem for OKC.

And I thought the same thing you did.

Well, if Jalen Williams is last year's Jalen Williams.

Now that's somebody to throw on one of those guys.

Right.

And you can do door down the other side.

But it was a, it was a rare game where I thought OKC seems small.

And I didn't think Chet was good, but I just felt like they felt a little undersized against the Celtics because SGA was really good.

I mean, he, you know, he, He was magnificent.

He was 10 to 12.

He was, he couldn't have been more efficient offensively.

He's getting the shots he wanted or getting to the free throw line, and they still lost by double figures.

So I don't want to overreact to one game.

Right.

I don't want to over, but that's one of those games.

And you do all the, you always do the season ticket guy thing.

It's like you circle that game.

Oh my God.

Okay.

See comes to Boston once they're the champs.

We're going to see where we're at.

Tatum's back.

They're finally fully healthy and, That was a bigger than a normal regular season game.

I think that's fair to say.

And Jalen Brown, oh my God.

Okay, so there were three plays I remember.

One where he took Dort on the right baseline and just hammered it down.

Then he had Caruso in the high post and he just spun away and then hammered it on.

I forget who was coming over to help on the rim protect there.

And then he got SGA with his own medicine where he...

He had the footwork, the push off the up, it got him in the air and then draws the contact.

And even SGA had to smile afterwards, but they had no answers for Jalen Brown.

Like this is the best defense in the league over the last two years, Bill.

And Jalen took everything they threw at him and just was the best player.

I thought in the game, that would be my question to you.

Do you feel like Jalen Brown was the best player in that game last night?

I sga was really good.

I mean, he was i.

I just thought jaylen did what he's done over and over again this season is he's matched the other best player in the game and this is why there's what i want to talk about him a little later, but this is why i think there's a really strong first team all nba case for him now.

Um, he's just been really consistent in these games and i thought what was interesting about last night?

Okc wanted the game.

They were.

They had 12 in a row.

They approached it like we're going to kick these guys ass.

They came out, they were up eight, nine, 10, really for the first quarter of the game.

They kind of went gimmicky in the first quarter, which I thought was another kind of weird sign for them.

They basically said, we're going to leave Hauser open.

They're not going to be expecting this.

It's like, why don't you just guard the Celtics straight up?

Like you have the best defense in the league or the second best.

Um, I think for the Celtics, the the big picture encouraging thing is that they've they've now played San Antonio and OKC and have just gone at them and really gone toe to toe with them athletically.

And I think had a lot of confidence with them.

I wonder the type of teams that they've struggled with are teams that play with a ton of pace, like Minnesota on Sunday, without Edwards just going up and down?

The Celtics want to play a little more deliberately.

And so does OKC.

So those types of teams are really good matchups.

I think the Knicks will potentially fall into that, but uh, But last night you could see the ceiling of the Celtics team.

I think if Tatum can look like Tatum,

He had that great block.

But just in general, they're going to be able to go toe-to-toe with these teams.

Their guard short, I think, is the thing.

I kind of wish they had somebody like McCain.

They don't have a lot of leeway with going small or if White or Pritchard has a bad game.

Somebody like Anthony Simons?

Somebody like Anthony Simon.

Well, the most interesting, I think single most interesting playoff lineup wrinkle.

And they did it twice yesterday for a little burst.

And in the second quarter, it really helped them.

And they've experimented with it.

Half of the games is Tatum at the five, right?

Where I think it's good for him because he doesn't have to move around it much.

He can kind of save his legs, but the rebounding is there.

And I think It's so nice to have the rebounding back.

But when they go a little smaller with him with shooting and then it kind of fucks up the other team's center too, because now he can, he can take the center outside or he can go in, he can defend.

And I wonder if that's going to be the key wrinkle.

I don't know how much Garza we're going to get in the playoffs, maybe depending on the matchup.

Kate is going to have free throw, uh, you know, foul, foul, foul stuff.

And I wonder if that's like the ultimate destiny of this team against certain matchups.

Tatum Brown, a shooter, white and Pritchard.

And like, it's could be Charmin one night.

It could be Hauser.

It could be Hugo, whatever.

But I do wonder if that's the ultimate destiny of them in huge, huge games.

They have Vucevic.

Hopefully the hand gets right.

And that's another huge piece of their depth and a way they can throw a different front court.

Look at an opponent with a stretch five.

I think that was the plan here.

And we haven't really seen that as much as I'd like to heading into the playoffs.

Kate has been absolutely magnificent, as is all of that depth that we've talked about so many times on your show.

But it's really cool to see Tatum.

You know, my favorite Tatum play last night was He sort of had, I think, McCain isolated.

I think OKC was playing zone.

And he had him isolated on the right corner.

And it looked like he's going to break him down and go attack.

But instead, he threw a huge skip pass.

Oh, to Brown in the corner.

Yeah, that was great.

It was great.

And it was just, to me, it epitomized that, hey, we still have these two guys.

And if you're right and I know we'll talk about this later where Jalen Brown's season lands on the awards list two of the top seven eight, nine guys in the league, when they're both playing really well.

That's something.

And that was the first Boston Celtics as the best team, at least in the Eastern Conference.

And if you look at FanDuel or anywhere you look, it's starting to be reflected in the odds to come out of the Eastern Conference.

Boston is clearly the favorite now to win the East.

I know you don't want to jinx anything.

And then, if you look at the records which you and I both love to do since January 1st, They have the best record in the East since then.

So all signs are pointing to sort of the dream outcome of this Tatum return that we've been talking about for the whole year.

It's all clicked.

And I think they can win the East.

Sunday night was a little scary because they look bad in that Minnesota game.

But from everything I heard, the travel stuff was really like once in a decade crazy.

Like they were just on a runway in Memphis for seven hours.

Too bad Scott Foster wasn't there.

Oh my God.

Um, and I think, I just think it that's why they looked like they didn't have legs on that Sunday game.

Um the and the Tatum the offensive stuff with him and the rating that the team had the first eight games.

And it just felt, it just felt clumsy.

And yesterday was the first game.

I really felt like this.

This feels like we're back now where Jalen is still the alpha in a lot of ways, but Tatum has they can carve out enough stretches.

Um, For OKC, I agree with you.

If they don't get J-Dub back the way he was last year, I think they're really vulnerable against San Antonio.

I think San Antonio could absolutely beat them.

Watching OKC last night was the first.

Because I'm in the camp of you got to get punched in the playoffs before you can actually win in the playoffs.

You got to taste your own blood.

I just feel like the league has shown us that for the last 70 years.

Maybe not.

Maybe when you have a seven foot seven freak um and a bunch of pit bulls around him, maybe that's not going to matter.

And if if J Dub is not J Dub, I do think San Antonio should have a lot of confidence in that series.

Yeah, they will.

I'm not sure they deserve it, but it's that typical young man's confidence that I think was epitomized by Victor at the press conference, where he's talking about why he's the MVP and he's just talking straight trash about the thunder and how he beat.

They're gonna be confident.

Stephon Castle is confidence in human form.

I think whether they deserve to be that confident is a different question.

Well, the record for February and March would say they deserve to be that confident.

I mean, they've been the best team in the league for two months now.

Yeah, 22-1 in their last 23 Wembley games.

So they deserve to be confident.

As much of a Spurs homer as I am, the Thunder deserve to be the Western Conference favorites.

They deserve to be the title favorites at this phase to me.

But I think what's changed Bill, since December is that They look a lot more beatable than they did when we were talking about this, when they were 24-1 or whatever they were to start the season.

I think they've fallen a little bit.

I think the biggest questions about J-Dub, the health, the Hartenstein.

Some of the three-point shooting, too, because the Celtics were doing that last night.

I thought Maz was great last night, but he did that little adjustment where they basically played a pseudo-zone shaded SGA.

So he didn't have the same kind of angles he had.

And they were really putting pressure on the other shooters.

And that's why like, if you're not playing Isaiah Joe and then you're just basically pulling off the bench and being like, can you make some threes for us, when he's ice cold and hasn't played an hour and a half?

That's why that 11 person thing is so interesting.

It works for the regular season, but when you're actually in a playoff series and You're down 2-1 in a series and you're on the road in game four,

Like, I want to know who my seven guys are at that point, you know?

It's a great point.

And I think, you know, even Dort made 5-9 last night.

And that was huge for the Thunder.

In a world where Dort, who has come back to earth as a three-point shooter, is one of the sort of nerdier subplots of the Thunder season.

In a world where he's 33% and J-Dub is at 30%.

That team's a lot easier to guard.

It's a lot easier to help on SGA once we're talking about Caruso old school Dort not making threes, some kind of limited J-dub.

The defensive game plan against the Thunder is a lot more confident in a world where they can't just punish you with shooters on the edge.

12 for 37 last night.

And the rebounding, Celtics were able to out-rebound them too, so...

We'll see.

Hold the Jalen thought because I want to come back with that.

But I do feel like OKC feels more vulnerable than they did.

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I have a couple of quick takes for you.

Yes, sir.

I'm going to whip at you.

Hot takes.

You can rank these on a scale of 1 to 10.

Okay.

Cade's injury was the best thing that could have happened in Detroit.

That is a 10.

Because I want to see him when he's back.

If he's back in 100%, I think it is good.

I'm saying that assuming he comes back 100%.

Okay.

Then I think that's a great take.

And I think, like, Dennis Jenkins is cool, man.

I love this kid's game.

I love to see that...

They're staying in games, if not winning games, with him running the offense.

And I do think Bill, that's a huge part of the playoffs is having that secondary force on the bench.

And I think it has given them an opportunity.

Duncan Robinson is making plays that wouldn't make.

They've all been sort of forced to promote their level of offense in the absence of Cade Cunningham, in a way that I think will, if it all lands perfectly, make them a much more complete offensive team in the playoffs.

So that's why I phrased it that way.

Okay.

We got to get that guy back though, man.

We got to get, I just assume he's coming back.

That's why, that's why I put it that way.

But what it did for Jenkins, this was a team that felt so Cade centric.

Uh, two guys really benefited from him not being there during.

I think has gone up a level and I already had him as an all NBA guy.

Now it's like, can he make second team on my ballot?

Like I had a, did you see him shut down Luca for the last shot the other night?

So Luke, I had somebody at the Lakers say that's the best somebody's guarded Luka on the edge all year long.

And it's a 6'11 monster.

It was crazy.

The case for him is very similar to the case for Jalen for first team.

It's the consistency and the kind of fuck you energy he brings game to game that doesn't change, no matter what night you're watching the Pistons.

That guy is just an absolute bad.

And it's been that case from game one this year.

Um, he's intimidating.

He's, he's really competitive.

He'll do anything that, you know, whatever it'll take to win the game, he's going to do it.

I think he's really overpowered some teams over the course of the year.

I thought he was really good last night.

I mean, Detroit, Atlanta was, they had Detroit, Atlanta, okay.

See Boston same time.

That was about as good as it gets.

Um, but I think the Jenkins piece of this, He was cool as a bench guy.

They had some guys where it's like, oh, Javante Green.

He seems pretty good.

Jenkins seems pretty good.

He's like run the team and run crunch time plays and gotten good shots.

And now I feel like in the playoffs, that's a legitimate six man guy.

That's somebody who could play with Cade in the last five minutes.

I didn't feel that way three weeks ago.

So that's why I phrased the Cade thing that way. kept thinking man houston could use this guy he's he's that good like he could he could start for nba teams i i wasn't saying that about it he had a big mid-ranger last night uh they tried to claw back in that game just didn't have it at the end but yeah i i've been really impressed with him and to your earlier point without that injury to kade we don't see that he doesn't develop that the the team doesn't get that confidence with him in the fold the two best guys that don't play as much as they could and would make me really wonder like from a free agency standpoint, what they're worth.

Legler was on AJ Mitchell early.

Like, could this guy just be the best guard on a, on a real team?

And I actually agree.

I was even scared of him last night against the Celtics.

I was like, shit, I hope they don't run more plays for AJ Mitchell.

And then Jenkins now, I think, has proven that Maybe he could run a team, like he's doing this over and over again.

Atlanta last night has been playing fantastic and he, and I thought he did a good job with them.

That leads to my next, my next take.

Atlanta is real enough to make you believe, but not real enough that you won't regret believing in them.

That's not a hot take.

I'm going to give it a three.

Okay.

I believe in them again.

The way I look at the game, this stretch is a analytically very impressive for a sustained amount of time.

Now,

Yeah.

Um, And then B, if you talk to people around that team, Bill, the vibes are immaculate.

There are people saying stuff like, we haven't had a locker room like this in decades.

I wonder what changed.

I wonder what it was.

I wonder what happened.

We'll ask Joe House later what it could be.

But I think the key thing is they've not only had this major sort of vibe renovation, but they play so hard and so well for each other on defense.

This is a great defense, potentially the best defense in the east not named detroit.

And then jalen johnson's allowed to be more free, nikhil alexander walker and they love dyson daniels.

He's, he's a, he's a weird guy.

Jock londale like uh they they've, they've put something together here that i wouldn't want to see in the first round.

Where i'll go to you is bill.

By the way, we should mention 14-1 in their last 15 second in net rating plus 144.

What were we going to ask?

Yeah, they moved up to the five seed, and this is what I'm going to ask you.

Five-four, this Hawks team versus that Cleveland Cavaliers team at the four.

Who are you picking?

So you think that you're assuming they can jump?

Oh, yeah, right now they are.

They're tied with Toronto.

They made it to the five.

32 losses.

They have the tiebreaker.

So if you want to get super nerdy, Toronto has the tiebreaker.

But these are two trains going different speeds right now.

And I like that Atlanta is going to land at the five if I had to guess.

So if I'm Cleveland, I can't believe this played out this way.

Where the whole time you're like, this is great.

We get to play Toronto.

We're going to kill them.

And now all of a sudden this Atlanta team comes shot out of a cannon.

Right.

Here's why I don't totally believe in Atlanta yet. as good as they've been.

And I agree with you on the chemistry and the team actually makes sense.

Like when you watch them, the pieces fit together, the bench I actually kind of like me moving, getting rid of Trey and moving research out of a real minutes.

Basically just change their season.

Plus McCollum, the problem.

So when you get in a playoff series, what if you watch carefully Atlanta at the end of these games?

McCollum is their guy at the end of games, right?

A lot of CJ McCollum.

A lot of CJ.

Now, we like CJ.

CJ's had a really good career.

I'm a fan.

But now I'm going to playoff series and I'm in two-point games with three, four minutes left, and now I have CJ McCollum versus Donovan Mitchell.

Do I like my chances?

Now I have him against Jalen Brunson.

I have him against Jalen and Jason.

You know, like I just, this is the problem with the playoffs.

If this is your guy and he has to match the best guy on the other team, you have CJ McCollum in that spot.

And that's what makes me nervous about them.

Last night, I think he had 11 or 12 straight points down the stretch for them.

Nobody else could do anything against Detroit.

And now he made the shots that won the game.

But yeah, I found myself wondering the same thing.

Is this really what we should expect from CJ in the playoffs?

Can you get out of round one if you're having hero ball with CJ McCollum?

Could you take him out?

Just be like, look, we're taking him out, putting a bigger defender on him.

As much as I love Jalen Johnson and I don't know if he's second team or third team for me, but he's going to be on an all NBA team.

There's still an end of the game stuff with him that I think we're two years away from right.

Completely fair.

Dude, yeah he is, is majestic in the open court.

He is a beautiful basketball player but we have yet to see.

All right dude, go get it done in crunch time.

Yeah, he's a good defender.

We're in the early stages of him.

But the atlanta this is real the home games.

They are going to be raucous.

They have great playoff home crowds for some reason, and i think they really like this team.

So that's one um.

Next take, Jamal Murray is a second team.

I haven't checked in on my exact second team in a minute.

I know he started red hot.

He has had the season.

We've all been waiting for him to have in the regular season.

Um, I'll throw that back to you.

I don't know if that's a hot take.

Do you want to make the case one way or the other?

Yeah.

So you would have to basically, you would have, I'm going down to my list.

So you would have to, If you assume SGA, Wemby, Luka, Jokic and Jalen is the top five, right?

And Mitchell may be in the Jalen spot, depending on how we want to go.

I don't know if we're going to get Cade back in time.

It's going to be five of the last 10 games, right?

And I don't.

It does sound like he's a hundred percent close yet, but even if he does come back, Jalen might've taken his spot regardless.

Like when you think Jalen is going to be 70 plus games on a team that almost has the same record, et cetera.

Um, there's seven guys for that second team that I have Cade Mitchell, Jalen Johnson, Jamal Murray.

I have Duren because I still want to vote for centers.

If I can, I still would like to preserve some semblance of the history of the league and not just vote for the top 15 guys.

And then Kawhi and Ant.

Kawhi's at 57 games.

He can only miss two more.

Ant's at 58.

And I think those are the seven in some order.

Kawhi is going to make this really hard if he gets to 65, because it's going to be really hard not to have him on a team.

On the second team,

Oh, at least.

Yeah.

He's he, by some metrics, he's a first team all NBA performer this year, but he's got to get to 65.

And I said this to Zach the other day, it's like, this is so stupid.

You know, the biggest thing we're for all NBA over the last week of the season isn't like the game Jalen had last night.

It's who's going to fill up the games played column in basketball reference to 65.

Yeah.

Well, the players did allow it.

So my guess is Durham probably falls to third team unless a couple of these guys missed the minimum.

But to me I would feel great about putting him on a second team because I think he's been The second, the third best center in the league, beyond Wenby and Jokic.

I think he's the second most important reason that team's going to be the one seed.

And he's been durable and consistent and really gives a shit night after night after night, which I I just don't think we value enough with this stuff.

Like Jalen, just showing up over and over again.

Showing up over and over again is a lot easier than guys that can just basically take some time off here and there and just get to like 66 games.

I don't know.

Um yeah, the other one that I the the wild card for 13 for me is castle, but I want to see.

You know, the best thing about this is we have as much time as possible so that we don't have to decide now.

Um, okay.

Next take Houston The body language doctor is just horrified.

It's bad.

This is bad.

There was, first of all, it's the most disconnected of all the playoff teams.

There's reminiscent vibes of Phoenix last year in that game we saw in person.

There's a play last night where they fuck up at the end of regulation.

And Shingun has to come down and he makes this absolutely insane block to save the game on Randall and then hits his face on the floor and his lips bleeding.

And if you want, I, I re I couldn't believe it.

I rewound it.

I was like, oh man, the rockets are going to run over him.

Right?

Nope.

Reed Shepard comes over.

Kind of like gives them a nice job, buddy.

Like it's the end of the first quarter or something.

Durant doesn't even acknowledge him really.

And nobody else in the Rockets comes over and Shingun just walks back.

This was like, you're a national TV.

This was like one of the best plays of Shingun's career.

It was insane.

I thought he was going to get hurt.

And that team is just so, so not on the same page that.

It was kind of like, yeah, good, good job way to go.

And then at the end of the game, when they screwed up again on the inbounds and you could just see Seng shangoon standing near the basket like this, which you're you know kept it for an extra three seconds.

I don't like the vibe.

Something's really wrong with the rockets.

Specifically, the offense.

So since January 1st, I'm sort of stealing Zach's point with you guys on Sunday.

They've ranked 22nd in the NBA in offense for half the season, Bill.

But just to put that in context, there's 10 teams that aren't trying to win.

You know, and there's a team like Memphis who's nine and 30 in that time that has a more efficient offense than the team with Kevin fucking Durant on it.

Like, what is going on here?

How do you, how do the Memphis Grizzlies have a better offense than the Houston Rockets for essentially this second half of the season?

And the vibes are off.

I know we're going to talk off.

It's like a compliment.

The vibes are horrible.

So they're 18th in their last 25 offensive rating.

Yeah, it's not a small sample at this point and it's the clogged toilet offense personified which we had in boston in 22.

But i just can't believe how lazy the offense is just.

But you have shangoon, who should be impossible to guard for some bigs.

You have durant, who is impossible to guard for virtually anybody.

You have ahmed thompson, who's one of the most sort of attacking driving players.

You have Reed shepherd.

There should be a top 15 offense in there.

Am I right?

I was, so they don't have offensive rebound anymore with Adams gone, right?

They don't have a point guard because shepherd just gets yanked in and out depending on how he may is feeling that day.

I think he may, I think this has been one of the worst coaching jobs of the year.

Um, I don't see any adjustments late.

The vibes are awful.

I don't think he really likes the team that much.

And if you want to go full conspiracy on it, they have not looked the same since the all-star break and all that KD burner stuff.

Whether that was true or not true did not look the same and they don't seem connected at all.

And yeah, it crossed my mind too.

Yeah.

Every time I bring this up on a pod, or when I had my column back in the day, and it's like this something looks off.

And then I remember doing this with the Clippers where I go to the Clipper games.

It's like, these guys don't seem like they like each other.

And then they would get mad and defensive and then years pass.

And it's like, yeah, we didn't really like each other.

Yeah.

It was really, uh, it was really not great vibes there.

It's like, yeah, we could see it's basketball.

It's the most naked of all the sports we have.

And this Houston, the vibes are off.

They just are.

And everyone wants to play them in the playoffs.

Everybody, nobody wants to play Minnesota. nobody wants to play Luca and the Lakers.

You want to play Houston.

And I do wonder like, are we going to have jockeying?

Um, you know, like if the Lakers in Denver, if you had a chance to play Houston in the succeed, are we going to have Denver just going all out trying to get to three seed, being like we got to try to play Houston versus, like other years where we've seen teams go backwards and try to like tank the last two games?

I think it's gonna be the opposite.

If I'm Denver, I'm like going full force for the three seed.

Yeah, I think the three seed is very powerful there.

Plus, you avoid OKC in round two.

And again, as much as I want to be a Spurs homer, that's that's a good deal.

So, getting to three and playing Houston at the six, right now, LA is strongly I would say strongly in position to hold the three seed.

But man, I would also give us something like a LeBron KD playoff series, which would be electric in the first round, but I would not feel good about Houston's offense.

Keeping up with the, the smoke show that is the LA Lakers offense at the stage or Houston's chemistry.

Yeah.

Houston.

So the easy games they have left, they have Memphis.

This is Houston.

They have Milwaukee.

They have Utah.

They have the golden state corpses.

Yeah.

But Memphis again.

So it's not like they're going to fall back to Phoenix.

Yeah.

Denver, on the other hand, they have Utah and Golden State as their next two.

They have Utah again, San Antonio Portland Memphis OKC, who might not care at that point because they might have it locked up, and San Antonio, who might not care because they'll have the two seed locked up.

So there's a chance they could basically run the slate.

Joe House is here.

He has no idea what we're talking about.

Hey, Joe.

Hi, Kurt.

We're talking about the vibes on Houston.

And how this is not the good ship lollipop.

Did you notice it last night on the television set?

Buddy, I've been noticing it for a minute now.

And you and I have been trying to pay close attention to this Houston team.

I'll put it in this kind of context in the first place.

You will recall, as the trade deadline approached, their regular season win total was sitting at like 53 and a half.

And I said, if Houston doesn't do anything at the trade deadline, then I am hammering that under.

I'm taking some portion of the mortgage and putting it on the under for this Houston team.

And it's largely because of something that we smelled out in the first half of the season.

This was before the calendar flipped into 2026.

They have fourth quarter scoring problems.

And it looked like in the early season.

We were wondering to ourselves in our text thread and otherwise Are they experimenting?

Is there a reason that Reed Shepard isn't on the floor in the fourth quarter of these games getting touches?

Is there a reason they're running offense through Sangoon and then trying to get Durant to bail them out?

Well, all of those things are still staring us right in the face, and it's a failure.

At this point in the season, we have enough of a sample size.

This version of the Houston Rockets is not a serious team.

Not in this West, the way that it's configured with the teams that are rounding into form.

KG, you know this.

This Lakers team especially.

I mean, the West is too much.

And this Houston, it's a bummer that Steven Adams got hurt.

They never came up with a replacement for the three-point shooting absence of Dylan Brooks and Jalen Greene.

And FEV, who got hurt at the beginning, before the season even started.

And here we are.

They are a first-round exit candidate, in my humble opinion.

Well, on top of it, the team most likely to all go to dinner together.

Or least likely.

When was the last time you think the team all got together and had steaks?

Send us pictures if that actually happened.

So, House, it sounds like you would be wagering...

FanDuel has this.

They have those, what is it, where we can bet on when the team gets bounced in the playoffs?

Oh, right.

Elimination stage or something like that?

Yeah, so it basically it sounds like you would bet on, so it would be team to advance to the Western semifinals.

Yes.

You would not be betting on Houston plus 160s, but that's what it sounds like.

No, and that tells you something that it's you know.

The implied probability of that is not in favor of them advancing.

All right, we're going to take a break and we're going to talk.

I have a bunch of history stuff.

Kirk and I have worked on some of it.

House doesn't know anything we have coming.

We're just going to throw it at him in one second.

There's some incredible lineups in the NBA right now, but it's not just the individual players that deserve the hype.

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So we're diving into some of my favorite player combos in Top Rotations.

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So my favorite lineup lately in the nba.

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All right, Kirk, before we do our history lesson, two more quick things.

Should we be disappointed in Alman Thompson?

Where we are career-wise?

House made of face.

Why do you say 100, Kirk?

I say because i look at the numbers i love.

On thompson, i think he has still has all nba potential, uh.

But the reason, specifically bill simmons is that he is modeling like an inferior version of himself just compared to last year in the exact phase of his career where he's supposed to be blossoming into an all-star and an all-nba talent.

He's actually going the other way.

According to all the advanced stuff, If you want to bring it back to specific things, he's arguably the worst shooter in the NBA right now.

He has the worst jump shooting efficiency and the worst shot making impact in the entire NBA.

So he needs to become a shooter.

Until then, defenses will be able to defend him very effectively.

And I thought that was going to happen this year.

And in fact, he's gotten worse.

The eye test is backing that up for me.

I thought they were really giving him a chance to basically be like maybe you could be our point guard.

They've given up on that, and it seems like he's lost offensive confidence, House.

I think House is nodding, so it seems like he agrees.

Do you want a stat?

Do you want a stat on it?

Yeah, give us a stat.

Yeah.

So 216 guys have taken at least 200 jumpers this year.

He ranks 216th by a Harris County mile, I would say.

He is, you know, I look at that guy for years.

That's been something I looked at.

I don't want him to be there.

I'm not happy about this.

But to Joe House's point is like this dude should be an all NBA guy in the next few years.

But that's the specific thing he's got to fix.

So let me ask a question, because this was the reputation coming into the NBA, the open question around the Thompson twins, around both of them.

Will they be able to knock down that open jumper that the NBA reveals?

Their athleticism gives them that space, that room.

Is it fair to be.

I mean, the number is the number.

216 out of 216 is pretty compelling, but Is it time?

Is it fair?

The circumstances under which he's being asked to kind of run this offense, he's not ready for it.

And it's apparent.

And he would be so well served, much better served, in a version of the offense that existed last season.

In a version of the offense that had Steven Adams.

In a version of the offense with AVV FVV.

God, I'll get that right at some point.

Running point, is it... I mean...

He's taking the shots, but he's not ready.

That's the way that it feels to me.

Well, if you just switched him with his brother in Detroit, is he in a better situation?

Yes.

Yeah.

Right.

It's a good way to look at it.

Next topic, quick.

MVP, so it's Thursday, still morning Pacific time.

Shea's down to minus 700 now.

Wembley's plus 650, and Luka's at 15-1.

If San Antonio passes OKC... and gets the one seed, is there now a Wemby case for you?

Because I'm not even prepared to consider it unless they're the one seed.

If they're the one seed, I'm prepared to consider it.

So House, would you?

Would that change anything in your brain about the MVP and where you're landing?

So I love that sort of phrasing of it.

Will we consider it?

Right now, we're not considering it, but we would consider it if they achieve the one seed.

I think that's exactly the right way to set it up.

Two back from OKC.

And it's desirable to be the one seed in this West, for sure.

You don't want to mess with what the 2-3 is going to produce going into the second round.

But the answer to me is no, still.

It's still SGA to me.

That's how I feel as well.

That's why, hey, guess what?

We have 82 games to decide, not 70 and not 50.

Right?

Kirk, if Wemby gets the one seed, does that change it?

Yeah, I'll already take Wemby's let me make the case.

Do it.

The most impactful player in the NBA right now is Victor Wampanyama.

And that puts Victor Weminyama on the basketball court immediately becomes the best paint protection team in the league.

It is fair to say, like, this is an 82 game award.

And I think Victor's best case is since January 1st, since the Spurs have had the best record in the league.

So I think, Bill, you have a strong point there.

But I don't think he's that far down on offense on the ladder of most impactful offensive players.

And I think he is by far and away the most impactful defensive player on this planet.

And that's where I arrive at the place where he is the most valuable player in the NBA right now.

So they played Denver two more times.

Yeah.

And.

Once on Saturday, April 4th, and then last game of the season, April 12th, which could potentially mean something for Denver.

And if he kind of kicks Jokic's ass in that April 4th game, I think there will be some momentum, but we will see.

Okay.

Jalen Brown house.

I said, I think he has to be first team on VA with 10 games left.

I think he's in the spot.

Now he has a chance to lose it.

If he sucks the last nine games or whatever, a couple couple of history Jalen things for you.

Right now he's 286 points a game.

Seven rebounds a game, 52 assists a game.

So he's a 28, seven and five guy edging toward 29, seven and five.

It's played 65 games.

He's over 2200 minutes.

Do you own the NBA history?

And you try to find the 28, seven, five club this century, 28.7 rebounds, five assists this century.

It's Joker, Giannis, Luca, Westbrook, Cardin, Katie, and LeBron.

And that's the entire list.

If you go history since 1968, basically it's MJ bird, Kareem and Havlicek have done it.

It's only happened 25 times since 1970.

28.5 points and above only 20 times in NBA history.

And then even if you go 27, seven and five, with guys playing 60 games or more in their year, 10 season or later, it's Havlicek LeBron, Jokic and Giannis three times.

I don't think he's getting enough credit for the season.

And I'm not saying that as like Boston Homer guy.

I'm like, cause I'm watching a game to game.

I'm like, this guy shows up every night.

And what he's doing statistically.

And now I guess the first question is house.

Is there a little bit of a mid nineties steroids bump with some of these numbers?

Are they all like 10 to 12 higher than maybe if you're comparing them to 20 years ago, 30 years ago, just because of the pace, some of the changes they've made, is it just easier to be a 28 75 guy now?

Well, we know the answer to that because we have regular games, not going into overtime, where the teams are scoring 153 points or whatever.

We certainly there is plenty of evidence, I think, over the course of the season.

The interesting thing to me is you have to draw a really really, really hard distinction between Spider Mitchell and kate cunningham and and jalen, because you have three guys.

I think we have three guys that we say are on first team, no matter what, and that's wimby, joker and sga.

I think luke is on there, no matter what.

Now i think he's grabbed the full spot.

Yeah okay, i just think yes, i don't.

I don't see any version where he's not on first team.

You agree, kirk?

Yeah, I do.

And I think he has to be on them.

The core four foreigners, as I always call them.

Those guys are on everything now.

Yeah, this is where Kirk gets xenophobic.

He's like, what the fuck?

I'm worried about LA 28, guys.

That's all I'm saying.

If you're going Jalen versus Mitchell, offensively, even.

Jalen, the stuff he is doing defensively is just at a complete new level.

That's not even near where Mitchell is.

He's guarded last night.

He guarded SGA for a lot of the second half.

He's doing that game after game.

He's choosing to guard the best guy on the other team.

And then his record is going to be better.

Right.

And they've had similar stuff.

So I just feel like he has to have an edge.

Cade's a tough for one because they're going to be the one seed.

Um, yeah.

And depending on when he can come back in time, you know, that's why this isn't a slam dunk yet.

But when you hear, like the names, that Jay wins in with this season Kirk, does it make you go.

Whoa, I didn't realize it was that good.

I hadn't thought about it statistically, because for me it's been almost like a real primitive thing.

Like, oh, Shireman and Hauser and Hugo and this team is where in the standings?

For me, it's just like, oh, it's because Jalen Brown leveled up.

Oh, he is a mid-range game now.

He's a leader now.

So for me, that's where I was.

And this is the question I would ask you guys.

For me it's almost like those core four foreigners who all happen to be in the Western Conference right.

Really, the question is, who's the MVP of the Eastern Conference?

And to me, it's clearly Cade or Jalen Brown.

Yeah, I agree with that.

And I'm gonna make you mad, Bill Simmons, because I think if Cade gets to 65, which is a big, if I'm giving it to Cade just because of what they've done, where they've come from,

But I'll also say I'm not mad at anybody who says it's Jalen Brown.

Come on.

I think it's fair.

But you think like what the over-unders were before the year.

Right.

And the Celts were, what, 41 and a half?

And Detroit was 47 and a half.

You're the Boston guy.

I'm mad at you, by the way.

How can we sit in October when we're trying to allocate our hard-earned money?

Not enough.

The point that is the correct point is Joe Missoula will not permit this.

It doesn't matter who's on the goddamn team.

He has 12 players and he's rolling them out and they're going to play their ass off every goddamn night.

That point wasn't made forcefully enough.

I feel like well, I would say this Joe, and I cause Bill won't say it, but I think you know Brad deserves credit for building this sort of bones of this team.

Now it almost aspers. oh, Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaw and Patty Mills are starting tonight?

Oh, they're going to win anyway.

That's what's happened.

I didn't think about that last year.

Think of the players they got rid of in the offseason.

It didn't give an indication that what they had in the pipeline wasn't jumping off the page.

You weren't saying oh, kata's gonna uh, we're gonna see him with these upper echelon right um rebounding numbers and his rim protection.

That wasn't the conversation we were having in october.

I blame bill simmons, that's all.

I like kata.

I never thought he would be in the running for most improved player, even though the odds don't reflect it.

But if if i had said to you before the season house here are the minutes per game for this celtic season, i had somebody gave it to me in a time machine Kata, 25 minutes.

Hauser, 24.

Garza, 15.

Jordan Walsh, 17.

And Shireman, 17.

Hugo's going to play 15.

We would have been like, wow, is that a 20-win team?

What's going on?

That's your fault.

I blame you.

The Shireman thing is, I'll tell you, I'm all in on Shireman as a playoff guy.

And you saw it last night.

The bigger the game is, he kind of, He kind of rises to the occasion.

It's pretty, it's pretty crazy.

He's turned into a real asset.

I would not.

If I'm Sam Houser, I'd be a little worried about being in Boston next year because Sam Houser makes 10, Shireman makes you know two, and That's one where you could get a little creative, I think.

And they have proof of concept.

They were like, oh, Cornette, that's going to hurt.

No, it isn't.

It doesn't hurt at all.

Not one bit.

I still wish we had Cornette.

It helped over here though, Joe House.

Yeah, I understand.

Thank you.

Right place, right time.

I will say this, Jay.

I've never- Except for Magic City.

Spent a whole decade with Jalen.

Did not think he had this level up in him.

I thought we were where we were with it.

And I think it's really unusual in a year 10- there was stuff going on last night.

My dad went to the game.

We were talking about it.

Like Jalen had a real fuck you energy last night.

And I don't think he likes SGA.

And I think he was mad about the free throws the last time.

And he was getting the line.

There were a couple of times when you could see him muttering under his breath.

And when he would get calls like muttering under his breath to SGA.

And I just think in general, he's, become so much more of an alpha.

We went to those 2022 finals games when dream on was really like bitching them out, and he's completely different guy at this point.

Um, okay.

So the Jalen case I thanks for making me feel like not a Homer.

The SGA um, the stuff he's doing this year where, assuming he's going to be first team on Bay against that's four straight.

MVP voting will be five, two, one, and one, assuming he gets it.

He'll be the best guard for four straight years.

And he'll have won one title and maybe two.

And he'll be at 31 points a game for four years, five and six, 53% shooting.

And if you go through the best guards of all time MJ had seven straight first teams from 87 to 93 was 33 points a game.

MVP was two, one, two, three, one, one, three, three titles.

Kobe from oh six to 10 was five straight first teams, four, three, one, two, three MVP.

And then magic from 83 to 90 was nine straight first teams.

Magic Johnson just lost in history now.

Um, and he was 27 and 12.

He won three titles.

I think SGA, if they win the title this year. obviously moves into this conversation.

Um, even if he doesn't win the title, he might might, be at least knocking on the door of that group house.

You prepared to come to grips with this.

He's at least like he knows where the address is now and he's bringing a pizza and some beers and he's like Hey guys, What's going on?

And I can't believe it.

Think about that.

MJ, Kobe, and Magic.

But what SJ is doing, he's in the vicinity now.

Is that fair?

Of course it's fair.

The combination of the success, the individual accolades, but really taking this team and letting it realize its full potential.

It's because of him.

He's the accelerant here.

And you know the Presti acquisition.

We'll do that how.

That was a sliding doors moment in the NBA.

Yeah um, but it set up this guy.

It let us get the full reveal with this guy.

And now that's a resume.

If he gets uh, another chip, either this year or next, there's no reason they couldn't.

Next year it's a five year run, next year even better.

Yeah yeah, no reason.

Um, i really respect it.

The first straight and 20 at all time.

Top 25 all time.

I have him in the high 20s now.

He's in that 20s, 27 range.

Start getting those chips, and that's the only thing that is missing for that resume.

I think that last step for the truly great ones, my dad went last night, and he was just like, that guy's just great.

You just feel like every time, especially in the fourth quarter and a half court, getting a stop against him, you feel great about it, right?

That's like the final level.

You just assume he's going to score.

You assume he can do what he wants.

The foul baiting stuff, I know we've talked about that ad nauseum on a hundred different platforms.

He's just really good at it.

Sometimes it's frustrating.

I don't like it personally, but he's good at either getting the shot he wants or get into the line.

And Kirk, it's fair to say he's in that group now.

At least knocking on the door of the group for real.

If you're going to win the scoring title in 2026, you're going to be foul baiting.

That's the league we built.

Okay, so that's my first point.

My second point is sort of a humorous one.

My favorite punishment for the clippers for this aspiration thing is they just have to watch sda like it's almost like a preemptive.

A preemptive punishment for right.

Yeah, it's torture.

It's like you had that dude, uh and dude.

The thing you didn't even bring up is the 20 point game streak now.

Now, i usually don't care about streaks like that as a stats nerd, but it really is just as a fan of the game.

He hasn't had an 18-point game, a 16-point game in two seasons.

It's 131 games now, Bill.

And it does look like Kobe and it does look like Jordan in the mid-range, which I love as an old head.

Forget the stats, forget the analytics, but he's so talented with his footwork.

I hate the foul baiting.

I'll complain about it.

I'm sure this playoffs, but his, his ability to score at all three levels as a, as a guard, is the best in class by far of his generation at the rim, in the mid range and beyond the arc.

So he's just the perfect picture of what a great guard should look like in the mid 2020s.

So back to back regular season MVPs, 13 guys have done it.

Magic.

Nash, Jordan, Curry are the only guards who have done it.

Now you go back to back finals.

MVP is all time.

Jordan, Hakeem, Shaq, Kobe, LeBron and Durant.

And that's it.

And we don't know.

We didn't have this.

We didn't have finals MVP for Russell's career.

He would have won like 10 straight.

Right.

Um, but that's.

He's on a couple of lists there that those are all the best players we've ever had in the history of the league.

So then you combine the other stuff and there you go.

All right.

We're taking a break and then we're going to throw this longevity thing.

You house Granger knows that as the procurement coordinator at a manufacturing plant, you can count on auto reordering to have the PPE you need on hand.

Call 1-800 Granger, click Granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.

All right, Kurt Goldsberry, I called you on Tuesday and I threw something big at you about Giannis and Ted Acupo.

Coming off, what Zach and I talked about on Sunday about how much would you give for Giannis this summer, and just the concept of what can you expect for what he's going to cost, right?

And that was my case to Zach that he keeps getting hurt.

He's getting older.

He's moving closer to his mid thirties.

Why am I going to give up the farm?

Like, if I'm Miami, why am I giving up basically every asset I have to try to get this guy when I'm not sure he's going to play?

He's played 13 years, 895 games, 89 playoff games.

He's over 29,000 minutes plus 3000 playoff minutes.

Uh, he's had one playoff win series, uh, series one in the last five years.

Some of the injuries he's had, House.

2021, hyperextended knee.

223, bad wrist sprain.

23, lower back contusion where he played hurt the whole playoffs when he landed on his back.

A couple groin strains.

2024, left calf strain, missed playoffs.

This year, two different calf strains and a hyperextended knee with a bone bruise.

Here's where I get scared.

And this is what I, what I called Kirk about, and he's going to have some stuff for us.

There's two different lists here house.

That would terrify me if I'm trying to trade for Giannis list.

Number one guys year 14 of their career or later.

Okay.

14th year later.

How many guys do you think have averaged a 2010 in 50 plus games in a season?

Year 14 or later, just 20 points, 10 rebounds a game.

How many times does it happen?

Not a lot.

Uh, 15 times.

How about one guy ever?

What?

Moses Malone.

He had a 2012 and 1989 and a 2011 and 1988.

And it's the only time it's ever happened with the year 14 or older guy ever.

I was thinking about our era and guys like carl malone.

They played a long time but at some point his 2010 automatic just fell off.

It became like a 25 and 9.

So that's the other list here.

Age 32 or later.

So he's gonna be 32 next year.

How many guys have averaged a 24 and 10 who are 32 years old or older?

24 and 10.

If I'm trading for Giannis.

Again, I feel like it's a big, decent number, like 15 guys, same kind of answer.

So if I'm trading on my assets for Giannis, pretty fair to expect 24 and 10 for a couple of years, right?

Does that seem like?

If I'm trading for first round unprotected picks for him, am I expecting a 24 and 10 back?

You say yes, right?

Yeah.

That's a hard in the absence.

Like Mikael Bridges was four firsts.

Do you expect there's 24-10?

Did the Knicks expect the 24-10 on Mikael Bridges?

Giannis is a 29-13 guy when he plays normally.

So 24-10 seems reasonable.

All right.

Age 32 or later, only four guys ever have done it.

Kareem twice.

Hakeem twice.

Carl Malone once.

Elgin Baylor three times.

Have averaged 24-10 when they were 32 years old or later.

It has not happened in 28 years.

So if I'm betting on Giannis to be close to the 29 and 13 guy that he was and I'm giving up all my assets for him, I'm banking on him bucking two pretty severe historical trends combined with him suddenly being healthy again when he has repeatedly not been healthy the last couple of years.

And if I'm in that war room thinking about making trades, I just would say we can't.

There's too much evidence that this is dangerous to do.

So Kirk, I asked you to research this.

What'd you come up with?

Oh, I came up with so much.

But first of all, I think somebody's going to trade for him.

So I want to start with that.

No question.

I would be very cautious because one of the sort of high-end things here.

He had one more year in this deal.

As you said, he's turning 32 at the end of this calendar year.

So one year more year in the deal means you're trading for him.

You're giving him a three or four year extension for like 60 million a year.

So we're just putting that in there too.

And the thesis here is that history teaches you you should not get involved with paying a 33 34, 35-year-old big man a lot of money.

It's just a really bad idea.

There's no shortage of examples.

The analogy I have for you, Bill, as a New England guy myself, this isn't Tom Brady at 32.

This is Gronk at 32.

Right.

And it's not just the miles on the car.

I sent you a fake Carfax report on Giannis Antetokounmpo.

This isn't the old lady who just drove the car to church.

And the most staggering stat I have speaks to the wear and tear on Giannis's body.

This is a man who needs power.

Uh, in the course of the player tracking era, he's been fouled 6 500 times.

Wow, he's the only player that has been fouled more than 6 000 times.

I think harden is close.

It's not just that he's played 14 years, it's the kind of wear and tear and when you look for examples of dudes that buck the trends that you're talking about, bill.

Yeah, you're talking about guys who have a touch, a grace, a jumper Hell.

Even LeBron James extended his career by doing what

Well, he's the smartest guy of the last 20 years.

He just figured out all the little ways to keep going.

And he became like a pretty good three-point shooter.

And now you see him hanging out beyond the arc.

I don't see that for Giannis.

Giannis is Christian Akoya.

Like I said to you on the phone, this is a dude who is just built to collide and overpower people.

So it's a little more like Shaquille O'Neal 90s, early 2000s, kind of a little more of the brute force guy.

Then somebody like Durant who could just operate in the fringes and get to 27 a game when he's 37.

Yeah.

So I don't know if we can do this on Netflix, but I plotted out a bunch of aging for the best, the best big men.

And and and and, to use a term from the rewatchables.

Whether we're looking at Giannis Garnett O'Neill, Duncan or MB, these are guys.

They all peak at 30.

It's apex mountain at age 30.

And not only that, the second biggest feature of these curves is they go down fast.

Even my beloved Tim Duncan, the Spurs did better than anybody extending this dude's career.

They needed Kawhi and Manu and Tony to win once he got past that apex.

So I just don't see a bright future for Giannis.

I love the player.

But as a student of history and stats, there's just not a lot of reason to believe this guy is going to play at an MVP level or an all-NBA level going into his deep 30s.

Yeah.

And I think Dwight Howard's a good example of this.

Right.

And I remember talking about this when it happened like that, he had that incredible Orlando run, but 2011 12 range, his back was already starting to bother him.

There was some science, like also, like what it's not like he was adding anything to his game that was going to make him more special.

Yeah.

Honest at least, like you know can.

They can do the the one four offense with him and try to have him go and barrel into the basket.

And maybe he could just be this incredible outlier house.

Like we've had outliers.

LeBron's an outlier.

Tom Brady's an outlier.

I guess my question is what would be the outlier function with this other than him just being somehow healthy and not having wear and tear?

Like he's not going to add a three pointer at this point.

He's never going to be a great free throw shooter.

Could he reinvent himself as like more of a low post guy?

Or is this just going to be who he is, where he just keeps getting kind of banged up or hurt and he's 58 to 60 games every year and that's it?

What do you think?

The answer to that question depends on where he lands and what they require of him.

What the Bucs have required of him over the last five years since they won the NBA championship is the version that we watched that has, as a feature, all of the injuries that you just listed.

Because it's a style of play that he is uniquely suited to be successful at.

But they could not because of the way they were configured and some bad luck and maybe some bad decision making building a team around him.

They couldn't afford him to play any other way.

He could only play that one way.

And that was true with Dame on board.

It's been true since they won the NBA championship.

I don't know if that's going to necessarily be required of him at the Knicks.

With Miami.

I don't know who the candidates are that can pull together a package that's attractive enough.

It makes no sense whatsoever for any team that's in a rebuild mode.

Desperate in which way?

Desperate like Cleveland, because Cleveland loses in the second round this upcoming season?

Desperate like Help me understand desperate, and then we can try and figure out what role he can play.

It's Cleveland losing and realize that they've basically taken this Mitchell Mobley, Jared Allen, that whole nucleus as far as it can go.

Should we just trade Mobley for Giannis right now with a couple other things and try to cash in on two, three years of Giannis hoping he can be here?

It's the Knicks basically packaging Townsend in and over together with some other stuff and hoping that they can get two, three years at Giannis.

But I think The really instructive one, because I spent a lot of time trying to figure this out and look at it in history.

And you think like KG when the Celtics traded for him in 07, 08.

And the thinking with KG was, can we get five years out of this guy at this level?

Same type of thing with Giannis.

A lot of wear and tear already.

Played a lot of games, a lot of minutes, a lot of miles.

And what happened?

They won in 08 with him.

He got hurt in 09.

2010 made the finals, but he wasn't the same KG.

Like he had three rebounds in game seven and 2010 finals, not the same guy.

Then 2012, they lose in the conference finals.

So you, you got five years out of them, but you really only got one awesome year out of them, right?

Shaq's another one with Miami.

They trade for Shaq.

I think they could have won in 05.

House and I still feel that way, that if Wade does get hurt, maybe they actually win the title.

They do win in 06, and then it goes up the cliff and he's done.

And I think with Giannis, I think you have to look at it.

If you're trading all this stuff for him.

History says it's probably one or two years that you're going to get.

That'll be really good.

And that's it.

Which means to me, it has to be a team that's close.

So I look, if I'm the Warriors, I'm so happy I didn't get them.

If I had to give up all my expirings and all my first round picks and, like now I'm betting on injury stuff with him and Curry who, by the way, has continually gotten hurt and probably should be still getting hurt because he's in his late 30s.

Like, where was that getting me?

I think it's really only like a Knicks or a Cleveland.

I don't think San Antonio would go near him.

I don't think OKC would go near him.

It's not their style.

I thought Houston was a great candidate for a long time, and I would still have Houston in the mix.

Am I beating OKC or San Antonio with him?

With Van Vliet back?

Bill, I actually heard there's a mystery team.

I called around as part of this exercise to see who were potentially desperate places for Giannis to land.

And somebody who knows stuff told me that Orlando has actually been very active in seeking out Giannis Antetokounmpo services.

Now, desperation sort of sets in in the NBA when? after the first round of the playoffs.

So there's 16 teams that think they're in it.

Two weeks later, there's eight teams that are out.

That's where I think the Houston's, who else would we say?

The Orlando's are going to emerge.

The Knicks, Cleveland, right?

That's the group I'm looking at because somebody will talk us themselves into it.

And I could definitely see it being somebody like Orlando who has a player that could be appealing to send back um, but unfortunately they gave all their picks away to memphis to get desmond bain um.

Long story short is, i do think you guys are on to something.

There will be a market, there will be a team that talks themselves into it, whether they should or not, but the window is very short.

Remember that he's going to sign a new deal in 2027, next fall, and that's going to be start when he's 34 years old and go deep into his 30s.

But i think atlanta is in there too.

However it goes with them, I still feel like they have the assets to make a move for him.

You could talk yourself into screw it.

Let's try to really go at it here in the Eastern Conference.

They're not going to be desperate, but they might see it as an opportunity.

And then the one I looked at And the reason I wanted to do this, not just cause I oh, we should do a Giannis trade thing.

Cause I think what happens in the playoffs is gonna determine a lot of the desperation.

So, as we look at like how, the last two weeks of the how, how the last two weeks of the playoffs are shaking out our regular season shaking, shaking out who's going to potentially have a terrible playoffs.

Then the desperation comes in.

So Charlotte, I was thinking like, man, they have a couple of really good draft picks.

They really like their team.

And could you just turn miles, bridges and a bunch of picks in the honest and try to make a real run at this and hope that you can get two three, four years out of them?

Um, I'll just tell you, if I was in that inner circle war room, I would probably be the voice saying it makes me nervous.

I don't think we should do it.

Yeah.

Um it like the worst case example of this ever was the was the Lakers with Kobe when the Chris Paul trade fell through, and they went after Dwight Howard and Steve Nash right.

Two guys with bad backs.

Nash was already like headed toward a decline.

And then Dwight Howard they only had for a year and we're keeping his finger.

Their fingers crossed that he was still Dwight Howard.

And then you know that really set them back and that ended up.

They, they tanked for three years after that.

Here's what I want to ask you, though, because I hit you this with Embiid last year.

I'm going to give you the same question with Giannis.

If we're picturing the career arc of Shaq in 2026, which version of Shaq is Giannis Antetokounmpo in March of 2026?

So I think it's 04 Shaq.

End of the Lakers era right before the heat.

So if that's true, then you got to give assets because that's a title winner right there.

Here's the difference.

Crucial difference.

Giannis has been in awesome shape and gives a shit over and over again.

He has cared about whatever the best version of himself physically can possibly be.

Right.

Shaq in 04 and 03 and really 02 played himself into shape during the year.

And 04 was not in shape at all.

And when he went to Miami in 05, it was, uh, I'm coming to take my corners back.

Kind of a Kaiser Soze.

I even did the, what did I call it?

The, uh, revenge scale or something like that.

I did a whole page to think about Shaq.

And he did for those two years, he was in shape and he did kick ass and he was great.

Giannis is who he is.

Like you're trading for the guy that he's been the last couple of years.

The calf strains really make me nervous.

That's right.

Because it's recurring.

It's not like there's been one.

It feels like this is just a thing that keeps happening to him now.

And I don't know why that would get better.

House, I was saying that the Giannis Shaq, the difference is Shaq got into awesome shape.

Giannis is already in shape.

So that would be the one.

The only thing I'll say on the calf strain point, which is concerning because we now have in this, especially this year, the hyper focus on Achilles protection and the amount of running the guys are doing and how this version of the NBA, the way it's played now at a speed and then the amount of running it greatly exceeds anything in previous history.

I wonder if that is a new way to conduct some load management, especially with Giannis.

Like you, only kind of need one in his history, and then you can safely point to it any time that you need him to not play a handful of games.

You say, well, there's a calf.

Cap tension kind of situation.

Look, it's in his history.

It's medical history.

So Kirk.

The other one that was rumored a bunch was Minnesota, who seemed like they were trying to move heaven and earth to figure out how to get him, which would have involved trading half the roster to different places to get enough assets to cut.

I never really understood it.

Yeah.

It seemed like it screwed them up a little bit afterwards because basically every guy except Dan was in a trade rumor.

Um, and I would assume this summer, maybe it's a little easier.

They still don't have the picks in the same way.

So I, my guess is it'll be the Knicks or Cleveland, unless there's like an Orlando, it's so bad.

And they're just like, Whoa, Palo for Giannis.

Let's just call it in.

Um, and especially like, who knows?

There's always been rumors with, with.

Uh, There's always been rumors like how long will Palo stay in Orlando anyway?

Who knows?

Yeah, you hear all this stuff about Minnesota.

I've been hearing it for years with Tim Connolly and Giannis.

I don't know if it's true, but then there's the rumors that Giannis had them on his preferred list.

That may or may not even exist.

And then the other team I heard Bill is Portland, in part because that would be ideal for Milwaukee to get back a lot of their own picks from previous deals.

So...

I think there will be a huge marketplace for this guy.

So I think there's really two questions with Giannis in 2026.

But the question is should there be as big of a marketplace as you think, based on the history of all of this stuff?

And I don't know the answer.

It all comes back to desperation, right?

And this is a marketplace where desperate GMs and desperate ownership groups tend to do irrational things.

And And the market forces are controlled by desperate people in a lot of times.

So I do think somebody like Miami, New York, Charlotte would be great.

But will they talk themselves into that?

I think they will.

And that's where I'm going to land here.

I think that somebody will probably overpay for the amount of risk they'll have to absorb to add Giannis Antetokounmpo to their roster.

So the case for it, is you say, look, we've had historical outliers over and over again.

Kevin Durant is still scoring 26 a game and shooting 50, 40, 90 splits.

LeBron is, at age 41, still a valuable piece on a team that has a chance to make the finals, potentially

Tom Brady played till he was 45.

Like you would have to start looking at the all-time outliers and asking if Why couldn't Giannis be like that?

He's been in awesome shape his whole career.

He had some bad luck with some stupid things.

Some of those injuries, like, sorry, he fell on his back.

And that's why the 2023 playoffs went sideways.

Like that's not Giannis' fault.

The wear and tear stuff is all fixable stuff.

It's not like he blew out his patella tendon.

Right.

So if you're in one of those rooms and you start going glass half full, that's where you start talking yourself into it.

And it's like, Carl Anthony Downs just sucked.

He's the reason we're not in the playoffs anymore.

And you know you, you start turning out your own guys and talking yourself into the glass half full case for somebody else.

And that's how it go.

I would just, I thought it was notable that San Antonio and OKC were like, we're good.

Yeah.

Two teams that had more than enough to trade for him.

And honestly, Houston seemed like we're good.

This ain't the year for us.

So the fact that three of the smartest teams in the league weren't intrigued at all.

I had heard different things about whether Boston kicked the tires on it.

I don't know what to believe with that.

I think everybody at least nudged it a little.

So there you go.

Yeah.

Year 14 or later house.

Moses Malone, your guy on the Wizards 2010.

Famous Washington bullet.

Moses Malone.

House.

I got a mailbag question from somebody about the Wizards that I was going to throw at you that I have to find.

It was about the best five players in Wizards history.

Would they lose in a playoff series to every other team's best five players in the history of their franchise?

It's not even close, of course.

Oh, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.

The best five players of every other franchise in NBA history?

Does that include the Vancouver Grizzlies?

You would beat the Grizzlies.

Or maybe you wouldn't.

That's like Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, Mike Conley.

Grit and grind.

So the listener was Chris Mooney.

And he asked if the top five all time was Wes Unseld, Elvin Hayes, Bradley Beal, Gilbert Arenas and John Wall.

The best starting five you've had.

I would throw... I would have Dandridge in there instead of Bradley Beal.

Sure, that's fine.

Beal, because of the length of his career, is in the very upper echelon of numbers.

But we can't have him anyway for the hypothetical fake time machine tournament.

I don't want his chemistry.

That's fine.

But Bobby Dandridge was a playoffs MVP in 1978.

We didn't have playoffs MVP.

So I'm looking at Big Wes, Elvin Hayes, Dandridge, Gilbert Arenas, and John Wall.

I mean, you have to look at Charlotte.

Here are the teams.

Charlotte, New Orleans.

So, Charlotte, can I have LJ and Alonzo Mourning in that?

I can.

You can?

Yeah.

And then I would probably have LaMelo, Khan, and Brandon Miller as my other three.

Oh, no, I could get Baron Davis with that.

No.

I could get Jamal Madison.

Oh, I could have Glenn Rice from the mid-90s.

Oh, that's a good player.

Glenn Rice was amazing.

I don't know, man.

We're going to do some work on this.

Maybe later.

Please note, I didn't hesitate.

You have to go to expansion teams.

Teams have only been around the last... Because remember...

This Washington franchise hasn't won 50 games since when?

The last time.

It's been 50 years since the last time they won 50 games.

Because even you would say, like, Sacramento would have to be worse than those.

But it's like, no.

Sacramento, I get Oscar Robertson.

I get C-Web.

I get some of the dudes from that era.

I might be able to put Boogie Cousins on that team as my center.

Um, I could have Darren Fox is my point guard.

Yeah.

West on South Alvin Hayes, Dandridge arenas at wall.

That's just a weird team.

I'm going to have to, as a project that might have to go through, and really try to figure out what would the Hawks team be?

Oh, the Hawks would get Bob Pettit.

That's the thing.

It's like all of these other teams have a guy who would be like somewhere in the top 30.

Um, Kurt Goldsberry, we cover everything.

Yeah, dude.

How are you looking at March madness?

You got any picks?

Um, House, what do you, so we're taping this Thursday.

We can't really do the Thursday games, but the Friday games, um, which include our guy, a cuff.

We were on that so early house and I, we were aligned without ever talking about it.

Um, but we have on Friday, we have St.

John's Duke.

We have Alabama, Michigan.

Oh, a cuff's playing tonight.

Yeah.

All right.

I got a good note on Acuff that you'll love.

First of all, I think he'd be the perfect Hawks player, thanks to Joe Dumars.

So if they somehow get lucky and get that position.

Yeah, be perfect, right?

But after the University of Texas played Arkansas this season, Sean Miller, our head coach at Texas, just went to the postgame presser and was, like that's one of the best guards I've ever seen play the sport of basketball.

He was just awestruck. by how great he is.

So yeah, what a player he is.

There's been some terrible comparisons with him.

Like Stephen A was talking about how he's like Iverson.

Like he's not like Iverson at all.

Not even a little bit.

Remind me of Iverson in one way.

Yeah, I don't like anybody who says Derrick Rose.

That's ridiculous.

No, it's a little Kyrie and a little Chris Paul and a little Dame.

Yeah, those three.

He's Dame to me.

I love when they ding him on the defense, like Dame guarded anybody for 13 years and Kyrie guarded anybody.

What are we talking about?

Oh, his defense isn't good.

Okay, cool.

What point guards?

Steve Nash was so good on defense.

You're drafting him for his offense.

House, tonight, I don't know, where do you stand on Burry's defense?

Love him.

I have him at minus 122 in the FanDuel Sportsbook for at least two three-pointers.

His three-point shooting over the last 13 games.

He only has one game in the last 13 where he's taken less than three.

Over that period, he's shooting 26 for 53 from the field.

This is not a setup.

You did.

You didn't tell me ahead of time that we were going to talk about this guy, but I bet on him.

So I have these numbers available in this place right here.

Let's go.

Love him.

He's going to be a good pro.

This is what I worry about with our guy a cuff tonight.

Cause this is a real big physical.

Another at Kirk.

The secret story of the 2020s that hasn't been told is LA basketball, the freaking Renaissance, just producing over and over again these awesome players.

And there's even been some guys who were kind of a letdown, but they've over and over again have uh, the NBA is from LA and I don't know what happened.

Maybe if Mick Cronin wants such a prick, they would say and play in UCLA.

Kirk, are you excited for your 21 and 14 Texas team in a couple of hours?

Dude, they've overachieved in this tournament.

I want to give my hats off to those guys.

I'm more excited for two other things in Austin.

Our women's team is the number one seed.

They should make the final four.

And my editor at TheRinger.com, Isaac, he's getting married this weekend in Austin, Texas.

So I'd like to give him a shout out to The Ringer's own Isaac.

Great job, Isaac.

But anyway, the Longhorns got to play the Boilermakers.

Great coach, Matt Painter.

Great three group of seniors in Purdue.

As much as I'd love to pick the Longhorns, I think the Boilermakers are probably a safe bet tonight.

House, what's your relationship with Patino?

Obviously I hate him for ruining the Celtics for four years, but you've kind of enjoyed him over the years, I feel like

Well, any time there's Italian food and sex under a table, you've got me for life.

Those are two things that you... Wait, was it under the table or on the table?

It doesn't matter.

Not for long.

23 seconds.

Those are top 10 things on my list, my life list.

So yes, Patino guy right here, but come on what he, when he got back to St.

John's and restoring that program and giving it that own again, giving it that New York swagger and that team taking his identity, that their defensive intensity.

I love it.

I love it so much.

I'm here for all of it.

These, these games in DC are going to be outrageous.

St.

John's Duke and Yukon, Michigan state.

How are we so lucky?

I don't, I mean, I wish I could afford a ticket.

Kirk, I wish you knew us in college when these teams we would attach ourselves to, like the Kenny Anderson Georgia Tech team.

Remember how much we loved them?

Oh, that was a great team, that Georgia Tech team.

We loved Kenny Anderson so much.

That's still one of my biggest disappointments ever from college to pros, is the Kenny Anderson not being one of the 50 best players of all time?

He had everything.

Yeah.

He was so special.

There was just, I still don't feel like there's anyone.

I don't know if I've ever seen a point guard quite like him.

It was like he had like the magic passing gene.

He was lefty.

He was so much fun to play with.

Like he was the algorithm through me sometime in the last two weeks.

That LSU Georgia Tech game where with Shaq and my model.

Oh, my God.

Raouf against Georgia Tech with Kenny Anderson cooking, and Georgia Tech pulled it out right at the end with Kenny Anderson.

It was like, man. this was good mother effing basketball.

This was outstanding college basketball.

We watched when you guys were on Holy Cross.

Every time I drive 290 across Worcester I think about you boys up on that hill watching basketball together.

We had some great college basketball memories back then.

St.

Patrick's Day at Holy Cross, which was like the biggest day of the year, was the Princeton, almost upside, against Georgetown, which was just like It's just everyone packed in like a giant place watching it.

And then, uh, we also, I mean, the worst memory was the gathers.

That whole thing was so awful, but that was the team we liked.

We really liked watching, but then we had the Bo Kimble, the tournament run.

That was amazing.

Um, and then house was graduated by the time the Duke Kentucky game happened.

But we had UNLV Duke when we were there.

It was kind of the last real heyday.

Arkansas was incredible during that era.

House and I might have been the first two people on the East Coast to really profess our love to the Fab Five.

I don't know.

I can't verify this with anyone else.

We were so in on those guys.

We were in on that when they all decided to play together.

Yeah.

We were like, what's going on here?

They're going to have all the best guys that go to Michigan.

But that was that whole era we loved.

And we talked about this with Jalen, but we loved Jalen in college.

We never gave up the stock with him.

One of my favorite nights ever with the sports guy was with 2014 finals.

You and Jalen were here in Austin.

That was when we reunited the Fab Five.

Jacko.

Ray Jackson.

I was there.

Yeah.

House was there.

We came in eight.

That was a pinch me moment.

Yeah.

Yeah, that was a pinch me moment because I also love the Fab Five and never believed in my life I would ever be spending time with Ray Jackson and Jalen in a bar.

That was awesome.

It's still unbelievable to me that they never actually won the title.

With what?

The embarrassment or riches they had?

But that's how good college basketball was back then.

All right, we lost House's camera at the tail end.

Kurt Goldsberry's camera is still working.

So Kurt Goldsberry.

That was awesome.

What a sports weekend.

Sweet 16, baseball starting.

NBA, like a lot of playoff jockeying, a lot of stuff going on.

We got the NFL draft coming up.

So great times all around.

Thanks, Kurt.

Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo, as always.

Thanks to House and his camera that stopped working.

And I'm going to be back on Sunday night on this podcast, live on Netflix with Zach Lowe.

So we'll see you then.

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[NBA Playoff Outlook: Celtics vs. Thunder, Giannis Trade Risks, and Rising Stars]-[NBA Hot Takes, OKC’s Red Flag, and Giannis vs. Father Time With Kirk Goldsberry and Joe House]

📋 Summary

The Boston Celtics: A Return to Form

OKC Thunder: The Vulnerability of Youth

The "Too Many Guys" Theory and Coaching Adjustments

The Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade Thesis

Rising Stars and All-NBA Debates

🎯Key Sentences

📝Key Phrases

📖 Transcript

[NBA Playoff Outlook: Celtics vs. Thunder, Giannis Trade Risks, and Rising Stars]-[NBA Hot Takes, OKC’s Red Flag, and Giannis vs. Father Time With Kirk Goldsberry and Joe House]

📋 Summary

The Boston Celtics: A Return to Form

OKC Thunder: The Vulnerability of Youth

The "Too Many Guys" Theory and Coaching Adjustments

The Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade Thesis

Rising Stars and All-NBA Debates

Deep Learning with ListenLeap

🎯Key Sentences

📝Key Phrases

📖 Transcript

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