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Hello and welcome to World Business Report from the BBC World Service.
Namaste I'm Devina Gupta in India, in Delhi.
And we're starting the show with some tragic news from India's western city of Ahmedabad.
We are getting a very important piece of news.
We are learning of a plane crash at the Ahmedabad airport.
This is an Air India plane that has crashed.
These are visuals from the Ahmedabad airport that we are putting out for our viewers.
This is looking like a big tragedy unfolding as we learn of a plane crash." Those are headlines from domestic Indian news channel about an Air India plane bound for London with 242 people on board that crashed shortly after take -off.
The BBC's Roxy Gadhekar is following developments at the airport.
This is one of the wing of that plane which crash here.
The authorities have brought in heavy machinery now to find the survivors.
All that we can see over here are ambulances and the rescue workers.
They're trying to find the last survivors over here.
You can see the impact of the crash over here.
The wall has been broken and all that we can see right now are the burnt trees.
That was moments just after the crash.
Now this man was at the airport when the crash happened.
I was traveling from Ahmedabad and had just started boarding the flight.
As I was walking towards the plane, I noticed a massive plume of smoke in the distance.
At the time, I assumed it was a forest fire and didn't think much of it.
Like many others, I took a few pictures.
It's still unaware of what had actually happened.
Once we were seated inside the aircraft, there was an announcement that our flight was delayed but no reason was given.
It was only later when we checked our phones that we realized the truth.
It wasn't a forest fire.
It was a plane crash." The local police chief has told the BBC that 204 bodies have been recovered from the site.
There have been a lot of reactions coming in including this from India's civil aviation minister Ram Kinjarabu.
Right now if you ask me I can only think about the passengers, their families, what they might be going through, and especially the civilians also who are there near the crash site.
A lot of relief effort has been done already, right from Indian Army, NDRF, State Police, medical departments including aviation concern departments everyone has attended immediately the fire department to the best of their abilities they have been functioning here and doing the rescue operations.
Let's get it now Archana Shukla our business correspondent who's joining us from Mumbai.
Archana those are some horrific visuals of this plane taking off from the airport and then just crashing with black bloom of smoke coming from near at the airport, just tell us what exactly we know so far and describe to us the location where it all happened?
Well, you know one of the most tragic incidents that India has seen in several years now is this air crash which was carrying 242 civilians and crew on board took off at a scheduled time of 1 .38 p .m. It went up to an ascent of about 625 feet, but after that, you know, there was some problem and some of the visuals show that there was a sudden descent.
You know, aviation experts who've tracked the flight radar data say that the descent was, you know, at the speed of about 400 feet per minute and in about 35 seconds, the aircraft hit the ground and crashed.
The crash happened in a very densely populated residential area.
Now Ahmedabad Airport, from where this flight took off, is in the middle of the city, in a very, very heavily populated area.
And it was an afternoon time when this region, this area is, you know, has a lot of activity, companies, people, walking in and out, you know, there are a lot of traffic on the road as well.
And hence, you know, the state, the extent and the scope of this, you know, of this tragedy goes up many fold considering the fact that the crash happened in a densely populated area.
The crash also happened, it went down on the dining room of a medical college hostel where some of the junior doctors were actually having their meals at that time.
It was afternoon lunchtime when the crash happened.
And there are some visuals which show the tail of the aircraft purged atop that building.
And that severely also points out to the fact that they, the number of casualties would certainly go up considering there would be some numbers coming in also from the medical college, although the exact number of casualties is yet not known.
So the local police officials have told that there could be no survivors but there are some report coming in unconfirmed at the moment about maybe one survivor who could have made it out from this.
So it's a developing story absolutely Arjuna stay with us.
Let's get in Nick Marsh our transport correspondent he's been following the story from the UK.
Now Nick this flight was supposed to land at London's Gatwick airport at 6 25 pm local time.
You've been speaking to some of those family members who have been extremely anxious.
Tell us more. Yeah Davina, I'm actually on my way now going to Gatwick, so I'm pleased I managed to speak to you on my journey.
There I will be speaking to family members who are currently gathering, awaiting information, on the face of their loved ones.
You know, this was a flight carrying more than 200 people as Archana pointed out, 169 of them were Indian nationals, 53 were British nationals, as well as seven Portuguese and one Canadian.
I mean, you know, London, you know, as you well know, as many people know, has a huge, thriving, British Indian, South Asian community, this kind of journey is really par for the course.
I mean there are so many intercontinental flights linking Gatwick and Heathrow with various cities in India.
This is clearly terrible news to hear if you are one of those loved ones wait waiting for your relative to arrive supposed to have been arriving in just under three hours.
Yeah our thoughts and prayers are with the family and loved ones who are still waiting for the news to come out about what exactly has happened but tell us the aircraft because the aircraft which crashed was a Boeing 787 Dreamliner?
It was 11 years old?
Yeah that's right I mean this 787 Dreamliner series is it's really a mainstay of Intercontinental Travel it's been in service since 2011 it's got an exemplary safety record until today of course there have been no issues really at all.
In fact last month Boeing was celebrating the billionth passenger getting on the the 787 which is quite impressive given it's only been in service for about 14 years.
It's important now because listeners are going to be hearing the word Boeing, hearing the word crash and fatalities and they're going to be thinking of those you know fatal crashes in Indonesia in Ethiopia which killed hundreds and hundreds of people in 2018 in 2019, respectively.
That was also a Boeing plane, but a different model.
That was the 737 max, and there was a major software fault in that 737 max, which caused those planes to go down actually cause those the 737 max to be grounded for about 18 months and it's you know caused all kinds of trouble for Boeing in a financial sense.
They were losing about a billion dollars a month last year, They had a workers strike.
There was other problems with safety, the door which blew off the Alaska Airlines plane midair last year.
So far there is absolutely no indication whatsoever to suggest that it's a manufacturer's fault that Boeing had anything to do with this crash today, but it's another problem, isn't it?
It's Boeing being associated with bad news.
Absolutely. Nick Marsh, thank you so much for joining us.
We'll let you go onwards with your journey to Gatwick Airport and we'll connect with you later there.
But, as Nick said, we're talking about completely different model of aircraft from the US plane maker Boeing.
But let's find out a little bit more about this 787 aircraft with Mirza Faizan, an aerospace scientist who formerly worked on development and design of this particular aircraft. He's joining us from Dallas in Texas in the US.
Thank you so much, Mirza, for being with us.
It is quite a difficult news that we're talking about, but just tell us a little bit about the safety record of 787 Boeing.
Thank you so much for having me, Devina.
So Boeing 787, as Nick just said, has an impeccable safety record. In fact, this is the first accident of the 787 Dreamliner, which resulted in the complete hull loss or the complete loss of the aircraft. So this aircraft was, it is first in many technical parameters, right?
It is the first aircraft to have more than 80 % of its body made up of composites, which is stronger and lighter material rather than a normal duralumin, which was used in previous aircraft. State of the art avionics systems. I have personally worked on, I mean I'm into avionics, So I have personally worked on the design and development of the flight magma, the flight maintenance system, the primary flight display, the multi -function display of this aircraft. So state of the art aircraft, impeccable safety record. I mean, great bird altogether.
That's all I can say for Boeing 787.
But looking at the news today then, I mean, of course, the investigations are going to continue, but just your preliminary thoughts of what could have happened.
and as we saw Archana, as she talked about that, it just happened in seconds, this crash.
Those were really critical minutes after the takeoff.
Yeah, so I have had a lot of opportunity to see the footage of the last couple of seconds of this aircraft, and what I can observe is that the aircraft was in a controlled flight before it crashed.
And what does that tell us?
That there was no issue in the control systems of the aircraft. There was no issue in the loading system.
The aircraft did not got this balance.
The loading was done properly.
So what this points out too, and I can say that with strong confidence is a crime of face.
this looks like the issue is in the propulsion system, that is the engines because this aircraft was in a phase of the flight where it takes the maximum engine power.
And there could be multiple reasons why engine could fail at this time.
There could be a bird strike, like what happened when Captain Sally landed the aircraft in Hudson, but bird strike can also be noticed.
one of the reasons we don't know.
But aren't there any safety measures built in to deal with that?
Unfortunately not with the bird strike.
The aerospace scientists all over the world are actually searching on that, researching on that.
Unfortunately, bird strike is something aviation industry is still - What does an aircraft rely then on these critical seconds after the takeoff?
So you mean the bird strike?
I mean, for the for the various situations that could happen because there was a call placed from the aircraft to the air traffic control room and they did say that it was May Day and there was no response.
So essentially, it just unraveled in seconds.
Exactly, because the aircraft was just taking off and it did not have enough altitude to do the safety measures and our recovery measures.
So the pilots did not have enough time to do the recovery manoeuvres because the hype was so less and it just ended in a matter of seconds.
And very briefly, then Mirza, before we let you go, what does this all mean for Boeing?
How serious is it? Oh, my God.
There could not be any worse time for Boeing to receive this news, because Boeing, as you know, is already dealing with Boeing's 737 issues.
and then last year, the Boeing Starliner malfunctioned because of which Sowita Williams and her colleague got stuck in international space station for over an year and now this, as Dick said, Boeing is beating close to a billion dollar with stripes and workers so I mean this could not be, there could not be any worse time for Boeing to receive this news and Boeing is a great company and my best wishes are that the Boeing management and employees.
Mirza Fezam, thank you so much for joining us.
Aerospace scientist who formally developed and designed the aircraft that went down in the western Indian city of Ahmedabad.
Emma Wall is joining us, head of platform investments at Hargreaves Lansdown.
Emma, the same question about what it means for Boeing.
I think investors were clearly showing that they're not that confident about the company if one goes with the pre -market trading movement for the shares.
Yeah, I think it's too early to speculate what it might mean for the company long term, but certainly the market reaction as the market opened in New York this morning has been negative.
So the stocks opened around 6 % down, they've come up somewhat, but they're still 5 % down.
I think interestingly, also to have a look at associated companies, so for example General Electric, who are responsible for making the motors in this plane, it's been confirmed their share price down around 2 % at early morning trading in New York as well.
Emma, be with us, let me get Archana back because Archana, for Boeing, India is a crucial market, isn't it, it's Vice President Brendan Nelson was in India last month and said that the country and various airlines have placed order in a that they will be supplying two aircraft per month this year and it ties in with the way India's aviation sector is also rising, so extremely crucial market for the company?
Absolutely and you know with the with the growing aviation market here in India you know people are spending money to travel across we've seen you know the India's aviation data that shows that this was one of the that, you know, picked up the fastest and grew the fastest post COVID pandemic.
And and the numbers coming in are great.
And and that's the reason why most of the airlines are starting new services, they're buying more aircrafts, whether it is indigo, Air India, both of them have placed a huge amount of orders with both Airbus and Boeing.
And for Boeing that has been dealing with a lot of these engine issues as well.
You know, We've seen a lot of Boeing aircrafts which have the Pratt and Whitney engines have been grounded across, across the globe, including multiple scores of them in India as well, both for Air India and Boeing and Indigo.
But despite that, you know, there has been an increased set of orders.
You know, if we talk only about the Dreamliners, Air India has currently, has about 25 Dreamliners 787 in its fleet.
And they had additional orders.
They could place additional orders for additional 30 more Dreamliners in the future and that was the deal they had with Boeing.
So certainly Boeing is looking at a very difficult time as far as business in India is concerned.
And talking about the airline in question now, Air India that Arjuna has been mentioning.
It's a former national carrier, which was bought by the Indian corporate joint, the us in 2022.
So earlier I spoke with the former Executive Director of Air India, Mr. Jitendra Bhargava about his reaction on the tragedy.
Very sad, very, very sad, I would say.
I had of course, come to a conclusion, the moment they said it was a wide -bodied aircraft, it was only Air India operates wide -bodied aircraft aircraft from Andabad Airport.
So very, very sad, air Indians would be equally heard about it that look, the airline otherwise has a good safety track record. It can match the best. But here is a one off accident that has taken place and taken a very heavy toll.
So what's the investigation process like from here?
The process is that Boeing being a deep -diner Boeing aircraft, India's regulatory agency and the airline.
Airline as a safety department.
So they all clicked together.
The black box that we have which records every conversation that may have taken place between the commander and the co -pilot or commander co -pilot with the ATC.
Air traffic controller on what happened, what helped, what they said about it.
Because the time available was very very little.
There will be lessons to be on once the entire decoding of black box has taken place.
And you get to the real fact as to what went wrong.
Could you explain to us for our global listeners about Air India as an airline, what's its place in India's aviation sector?
Air India started by the Tata way back, and in 1953, from a private airline, it became a government headline.
It was P78 classified as a top class headline but then it deteriorated because of money not being invested in the product, aircraft not being refurbished the way they should be, product quality being improved, it did not happen.
So the government eventually decided that it was time to disinvest and I had been articulating and advocating for disinvestment right from the year 2000, that is 25 years ago, but this finally took place in January 2022.
You talked about how the Tatas eventually bought this airline.
Now, how much of a setback do you think this incident is to the broader business narrative?
The new aircraft are coming in, the old aircraft are being refurbished in a phase manner, so this accident is a setback, undoubtedly.
But then, as we have learned, or we have experienced On the instances involving other major airlines in the world, people get on and eventually see the track record as it has over a period of time involving a lot of flights that have taken place or aircraft that have been operated.
Could you give us a sense of how commercially important, especially these international routes are for Air India and specially the India -UK route in terms of traffic and revenue?
Let's put it this way, the inaugural flight that Air India operated was on 8th June 1948, and today we are on 12th June, that is four days after that landmark thing, and it was flown to London before the inaugural flight.
London has been a good market because not only the Indian diaspora but also as a commercial city.
There are a lot of people who keep travelling for business, for commercial interests and of course for leisure, people go.
So it is an important market for the Indian cadets and that is why Air India has been wanting to increase the network to London and they have been doing it.
From multiple cities in India to fly to UK.
But then as I said, we have ultimately come down to the same issue, what happened today.
That was former Executive Director of Air India, Mr. Jitendra Bhargava, while the Tata group which owns Air India has said that it will give financial compensation to the families of each person who has been killed in the crash.
They've expressed condolences for those who have sadly not survived this tragedy and same with Boeing they have said that they will continue to follow the latest developments and for more you can head to bbc .com slash news where we are following the story live.
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You're with World Business Report from the BBC World Service.
Now, turning to East Africa and Kenya's Finance Minister who has been outlining the country's budget for this year.
There's been a lot of tensions, though, in Nairobi because the finance minister said they would see a growth of 5 .3 per cent, but warned of global trade sanctions, market volatility, and extreme weather conditions.
Overall spending is expected to reach over $33 billion for the country as they aim to boost revenue.
But where is this going to come from?
Because the country is facing a difficult situation when it comes to taxes.
There were protests last year from the citizens who don't want any more taxes.
They say we can't just afford them.
Let's get in Ali Khan Sacheu, an independent African geoeconomic analyst, who's joining us from Kenya.
Thank you so much, Ali, for joining us.
The question then, a difficult act for the government to balance their spending when they can't raise taxes.
It's an absolute tightrope.
and John Buddie is trying to thread a needle here.
I mean, he's got to, as you said, raise the revenue side of the equation.
At the same time, there's been a tremendous pushback from the street against any further tax rises.
I think, basically, they bailed on further tax rises.
That was one of the conditionalities of the IMF program, which is now on hold.
So it's a very difficult circle to square.
I think they're relying on new lenders to make up the shortfall like the UAE, Abu Dhabi in particular, but obviously, he's walking a tightrope here.
So what's the way of life in this economy for Kenyans?
So I think, you know, the majority of people have been having to where of tremendous cost of living increases.
They've seen taxes take a bigger chunk of their earnings, and they're being badly squeezed.
And I think that's why you had the street protests, which which had real momentum until the government slammed down quite hard on them.
But I don't think it's possible for the government to take that approach for much longer here.
We've got a shortfall.
USAID, of course, under the Trump administration has pulled out about, I reckon, one point $5bn IMF on a go -slow and really struggling to raise revenue.
So, there is a shortfall in my estimation.
I mean, they're talking about borrowing 900bn shillings, debt service is nearly a trillion.
It's a bad, bad squeeze.
So, what's the road ahead, according to you?
What is it, those crucial points from this budget that you feel could actually make a difference?
Well, I mean, what they're doing in the budget is they're trying to plug loopholes, and they're basically trying to tidy things up.
But, as we know, it's very difficult to deliver what you're promising, and I think they're going to struggle.
So I think there's going to be quite a big shortfall come middle of the year.
And I think they'll all be on a flight to Abu Dhabi, for example, who've lent them about a billion dollars last fiscal year, and probably they're going to lean on them to add to that in this fiscal year to make up the shortfall.
They're talking about 5 .3 % GDP growth, very, very difficult.
I think most independent analysts are looking for sub -5.
You've got weather -related risks as well out there, and you know so far that Kenya has been lucky because the rains have been optimal, but if we have a problem with the weather then we have a surge in food prices, and then all bets, I'm afraid, are off.
Hmm, absolutely. Thank you so much for joining us.
Ali Khan, Satchel, independent African geo economic analyst joining us from Kenya.
The Emma Wall is still with us, Emma, what are the other movers and shakers you're seeing in the markets today?
The biggest thing that we've been talking about other than the fatalities in India are the U .S. China trade deal, we finally got a bit of meat on the bones and details are coming through, we center around in particular rare earth minerals.
These sort of 17 elements in the periodic table, which no one really had heard about, not that long ago, but now are integral to things like electric vehicles, and also defense as well.
So submarines, fighter jets.
That's really been a core part of the US -China trade deal, which will hopefully bring some stability to markets going forward. We leave it there.
Thank you so much for being with us, Emma Wall, head of platform investment at Hargreeves Land's Down.
You've been listening to World Business Report on the BBC World Service.
Thank you for joining us.
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