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[Embracing the Unknown: Finding Value in Uncertainty]-[How to handle uncertainty (w/ Simone Stolzoff)]

How to Be a Better Human · B2 · 2026-05-11

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📋 Summary

Navigating Life in a World of Uncertainty

In this episode of How to Be a Better Human, host Chris Duffy sits down with author and journalist Simone Stolzoff to discuss the central theme of his latest book, How to Not Know: The Value of Uncertainty in a World that Demands Answers. The conversation challenges the modern obsession with finding definitive answers, suggesting instead that cultivating a relationship with uncertainty is a vital human skill.

The Trap of Seeking Certainty

Stolzoff identifies his own past struggle with "fits of rumination" and the anxiety of decision-making as the catalyst for his work. He notes that many people, himself included, fall into the trap of searching for "certainty where there was no certainty to be found." When facing "forking paths"—such as career choices—we often treat the decision like a math problem with one correct answer. Stolzoff argues that difficult decisions are hard precisely because they involve "competing values" and trade-offs. By demanding absolute clarity, we only create unnecessary "angst and anxiety."

Acute vs. Ambient Uncertainty

Stolzoff distinguishes between two types of uncertainty:

  • Acute Uncertainty: Specific, time-bound questions (e.g., waiting for medical test results). Research suggests that people often prefer a certain negative outcome over the ambiguity of not knowing. To manage this, he suggests separating what we can control from what we cannot, creating "contingency plans," and practicing nervous system regulation.
  • Ambient Uncertainty: The broad, existential unease regarding the future of the world, technology, and society. Stolzoff notes that our tolerance for this is in decline due to the instant gratification provided by technology, which "robs us of the practice of sitting with what we don't know."

Three Pillars for Managing Uncertainty

To thrive in an unpredictable environment, Stolzoff proposes three practical strategies:

  1. Find Your Anchors: Identify the constant values or commitments in your life (e.g., family, personal principles) that remain stable amidst "changing winds."
  2. Focus on the Next Right Action: Drawing from Buddhist philosophy and the concept of "going bird by bird," he suggests grounding oneself in the immediate, actionable step rather than spiraling into worst-case scenarios.
  3. Choose Curiosity Over Fear: Instead of viewing uncertainty as a threat—an evolutionary "rustling in the bushes"—we should reframe it as the "birthplace of possibility."

Intellectual Humility and the Role of AI

Stolzoff emphasizes that "unlearning is a precursor to being able to learn." He advocates for intellectual humility, suggesting that we should update our worldviews as we gain new information. He notes that the best predictors, as studied by Phil Tetlock, are those who update their forecasts frequently rather than clinging to hubris.

On the topic of Artificial Intelligence, Stolzoff expresses concern that AI creates an expectation that answers are always available, which stunts our "cognitive fitness." He argues that we need "time under tension" to grow our brains, and by outsourcing hard thinking to chatbots, we risk losing the ability to learn. Ultimately, he uses a parable of a farmer to illustrate that we cannot know whether a development is "lucky" or "unlucky" in the long run, urging listeners to remain receptive rather than predictive.

Conclusion: Building a Sustainable Identity

Drawing from his previous book, The Good Enough Job, Stolzoff concludes that the best defense against uncertainty is to "diversify your identity." If a person puts all their eggs in one basket—such as a single career path—they are susceptible to existential crises. By investing in relationships, hobbies, and community, one builds a wider foundation that allows them to remain "standing tall" even when one pillar of their life crumbles. Embracing the unknown, he posits, is the key to living a more connected, generous, and open life.

🎯Key Sentences

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On the other hand, it really threw me for this existential loop.
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I was completely insufferable.
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But with hard decisions, often there are tradeoffs.
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I'll opt out for now.
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We would somehow rather have a certain bad thing happen to us than have to deal with the ambiguity of not knowing.
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📝Key Phrases

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wrestle with
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put your creative work out into the world
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throw someone for a loop
4
see two paths diverging
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bang one's head against the wall
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📖 Transcript

This is how to be a better human.
I'm your host, Chris Duffy.
Today on the show, we're talking with Simone Stolzhoff about how to handle uncertainty.
How do you make the right choice when you're not sure what the right choice is?
What if you're not sure there even is a right choice at all?
Simone talks about these questions in his new book, which is called How to Not Know the Value of Uncertainty in a World that Demands Answers.

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