EXTRA: Here’s Why You’re Not an Elite Athlete (Update) | Freakonomics Radio

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Hey there, it's Stephen Dubner.

The 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris are ending and if you're like me, you have not been competing in them.

Watching maybe, but not competing because most of us are normal people and world class athletes are different.

We made an episode about this difference some years ago and I thought it might be a good time to hear it again as a bonus episode.

We've updated facts and figures as necessary as always thanks for listening.

You cannot be afraid to fail.

I had never been in an environment that was so emotionally charged.

That could be the reason you're telling your second grade daughter that she's moving next week.

The fight started and I hit her as hard as I could and she actually fell down.

I haven't hit your old son.

There's no way I'd let him play tack with football.

I want to leave this sport being known as a bad mother.

Maybe you are an obsessive sports fan or maybe a more casual fan and you follow just a couple sports or teams.

Or maybe you pay no attention to sports and you only see it when the Olympics are on somebody else's TV.

Whichever the case, when you do see those athletes, it's easy to think of them as existing solely in that context.

As a full grown adult, wearing a uniform, performing under extraordinary pressure, focused on a highly specialized task that has zero to do with daily life or at least your daily life.

But is that who those people really are?

And how they get so good at this thing they do.

When you see them on TV, all you're seeing is the outcome.

But what are the inputs?

We understand that elite athletes represent some magical combination of talent and determination.

But what about, say, luck?

Oh my gosh. Yes, absolutely.

I think a ton of luck is involved.

That's Sean Johnson, an American gymnast who's won an Olympic gold medal and many other top honors.

It's kind of like this miracle math kind of equation that has to equal the perfect answer.

I mean, you can't get hurt, you have to be healthy, you can't have the flu on the wrong day.

You have to find the right coach in the right city, you have to be a little forwarded.

It's all these random things.

And when you get all the people who fit that equation, you're not left with many people.

So I guess I was just the best of the very few who fit that equation.

Today, I'm freaking on my radio becoming an athlete.

Time to step back and try to understand how these people rose to such heights.

How scientific is the process?

How predictable? We'll look at a number of factors, including, of course, raw talent.

My parents are both super-study athletes.

Yep, I think the gift is number one.

We'll look at will and determination.

I did a bunch of push-ups and sit-ups that night until I was throwing up.

And the mental aspect of this most physical pursuit.

I think the mind is as big of a separator for professional athletes as any physical tools.

We'll hear stories of opportunities gained and lost.

In 1981, there was 18.7% African American players in the major leagues, as of 2018, 7.8%.

And we'll hear one story that's almost too good to be true.

This is Frekenomics Radio, the podcast that explores the hidden side of everything, with your host, Stephen Dubner.

When you see an elite performer in any field, sports or music or surgery, whatever, it's natural to ask yourself a question.

How did they get so good?

How much of that ability were they born with?

How much is attributable to hard work and practice?

This is a debate that has been going on probably forever.

Nature versus nurture, raw talent versus what's called deliberate practice.

We've had that debate on this program in episode 244 called How to Become Great at Just About Anything.

Too often, this debate ends up obscuring what strikes me as a pretty obvious fact.

To become great at anything, need both talent and practice, lots of each.

But even that fact seems pretty narrow, don't you think?

Because athletic success, like any success in life, or any failure, it's what you might call multifactorial.

A lot of inputs, a lot of variables.

Imagine you've got two athletes with identical talent levels and identical training methods.

Do you really want to make a big bet that their athletic careers also end up identical?

As much as we might want to turn the pursuit of success into science, into a recipe, real life is more nuanced than that.

Also, more interesting.

So, I mean, Jay-Z, soul drugs grew up in Marcy projects to a single mother.

That's Dominique Foxworth, who played six seasons in the NFL.

Now, he is a multi-multi-millionaire married to Beyonce, the most amazing talent we have today.

So, why don't we set it up so that all young men must sell drugs when they're kids and have only their mother and grow up in Marcy projects in Brooklyn, New York?

Like, I mean, he had a great talent.

And to be honest, like, there's probably a great deal of luck.

Like, he happened to not be there when one of his friends got arrested and his friend in snitch on him.

Like, that is like a lot of luck.

And I think the same thing is true for me.

Like, I can go through the course of my life and look at all the things that happen that were just happenstance that led me to these positions.

And I'm not going to say that it's a model that should be followed.

I understand that there are occasional outliers, but trying to build around that seems crazy.

So, okay. We are not going to arrive at some perfect model for turning an ordinary person into a world-class athlete.

But we'll do our best to describe some of the inputs that seem to be strong contributors.

Let's start with physical ability.

It may not surprise you to learn that a lot of elite athletes exhibited a pretty high baseline level of talent from an early age.

Mark Tashera, for instance, a three-time major league baseball all-star.

Yes. And most kids grow up being, you know, if you're an elite athlete, you're going to be the best kid on your team.

I've played every sport as a kid.

Was baseball your best sport from the outset?

Always was. And I actually enjoyed playing basketball more.

I played backyard football.

I played soccer, tennis.

But I was always good at baseball.

So I knew baseball was going to be, you know, a sport from my future.

Athletic talent is considered one of the more heritable traits passed from parent to child.

In super-freakonomics, one of the books I wrote with the economist Steve Levit, we performed a rough calculation showing that if a major league baseball player has a son, that boy is about 800 times more likely than a random boy to also make the majors.

So it may not surprise you that a lot of the athletes we've been interviewing for the series came from athletic families.

Here's Kerry Walsh Jennings, who's won three Olympic gold medals in Beach volleyball.

Oh, man. Well, my life has literally been family and sports, like from day one, I think from birth.

My parents are both super-study athletes, say, both come from very athletic families.

My parents are both athletic.

And that is the Alpine skier, Michaela Schiffrin, who is won two Olympic gold medals and has more World Cup wins than any skier in history.

My mom is extremely athletic.

And even now she's had knee surgeries and hand surgeries and neck surgeries and everything, but she's still such an incredible athlete.

Well, I mean, my dad kind of did every sport when he was growing up.

And the gold medal gymnast Sean Johnson.

He was a hockey player. He wrestled.

He did BMX. He raised Moto X.

I mean, everything. Just how powerful is the sports gene?

David Epstein is a science journalist and author of a book called The Sports Gene.

And he tells the story of a man named Donald Thomas.

Donald is about six, two lean, Bahamian guy.

Thomas played basketball at a small college in Missouri, but he was far from an elite player.

And the college program was far from elite.

One day in the gym, he was bragging about how high he could jump.

And the best jumper on the track team guy named Carlos overheard him and said, you know, you're talking all that trash.

You wouldn't even clear a bar of six foot six in a real competition.

And Donald says, yes, I would.

So they go out to the track and Carlos sets the high jump bar at six feet six inches.

Donald still wearing his basketball sneakers, runs up, jumps, clears it easily.

Carlos moves the bar higher and higher.

Donald keeps clearing it.

We're talking about the first high jumps of his life is going over the bar backward, of course, which he'd never done before.

And Carlos gets the bar to seven feet and Donald clears seven feet at which point Carlos is worried he's going to hurt himself.

Donald Thomas soon moved on to Auburn University on track scholarship.

And not long after that, he competed in the World Track Championships.

And this is Donald Thomas.

We're in much an unknown quantity, really.

Thomas was jumping against much more experienced and accomplished athletes.

And he goes clear. Donald Thomas goes clear at two meters thirty five.

The man that started the high jump only two years ago.

But that is an incredible jump.

And not only does he win, but he records the highest center of mass jump ever in history.

He doesn't set the world record because his form is so bad.

He looks like he's riding an invisible deck chair through the air.

It turned out that Donald Thomas had a physiological trait, an abnormally long Achilles tendon that gave him a big advantage.

So there aren't that many Donald Thomas's in terms of winning the World Championships.

But this happens at lower levels all the time where somebody will step in with no or very little background and win some kind of regional or state championship.

And then those are the people who end up training and going on to become champions.

David Epstein also writes about the success of talent transfer programs in the UK, Australia, China, and elsewhere.

Well, they'll take people who maybe aren't making a national team or making it to the top in a certain sport.

And so, hey, why don't you go try this other stuff?

Some converted athletes have done remarkably well.

The UK won several gold medals in rowing and skeleton with athletes who began in other sports.

In the 2002 Winter Olympics, the Australian Alisa Camplin, a converted sailor, one gold and aerial ski.

She wins the Olympic gold medal and was still so poor at skiing that when she was invited to ski down the mountain to the gold medal winners press conference, she fell and rolled down the mountain on the winners flowers because she still didn't know how to ski.

I heard she learned how to ski later like on vacation, but not by the time she won the Olympic gold medal.

Yep, I think the gift is number one.

Mark Tashera again. Because without the gift, you can't take a kid that has zero athletic ability and just happens to be a hard worker and he goes to the big leagues.

But talent on its own, as we all know, you don't only get you so far.

Any given time, there's a thousand big leagues out there, but there's probably 10,000 players whether in college or amateur baseball or low professional ranks that are good enough to someday make it.

That's yes, there's 10,000 talented players with a gift.

It's of those 10,000 players, which are the ones that work hard enough, which are the ones that figure it out, which are the ones that get it, that make the right decisions and you know, train the right way and eat the right way and do preparation for games.

Those are the ones that make it.

The most talented player that I ever saw as an amateur was Corey Patterson, and he had a decent big league career, but talent wise, I would kill for his talent.

Talent wise, there were a ton of guys that I thought had more talent than me, but I thought I figured it out.

My brother was inherently more talented than I was.

That's JJ Reddick. He played 15 seasons in the NBA and recently became head coach of the Los Angeles Lakers.

He could never shoot the basketball the way that I could, but he could hit a baseball a mile.

He had a cannon for an arm.

My best friend from high school is the same way.

You know, certain kids are just everything sort of comes easy to them and it's natural of them.

I have seen some of the most physically gifted and talented gymnasts.

I think our sport has ever seen.

Sean Johnson again, but they just do not have the mental capability to get themselves to that elite level and it's not a matter of training them or.

You know getting them to the right sports psychologist or getting the right people around them.

It's just it's not there.

So I think you have to be born with some sort of innate ability to you know push out all pain and emotion and push yourself past a boundary that 99% of the world.

Operates within. I remember being in an apartment we lived in in Indianapolis.

Dominique Foxworth again and I told my father I wanted to be a professional football player.

He was eight years old and he told me alright well you said a goal you should do something to get you closer to that goal every day and I took that to heart.

So I did a bunch of push ups and set ups that night until I was throwing up.

It's like ridiculous. What was it the gave Foxworth such an intense drive for football.

I was in love with the game in part because of how violent it was honestly and like.

Whatever warps since of masculinity I had at that age that probably has not fully left me was like basketball is for the soft kids football is for the men and I want to play football.

I just I trained my ass off I loved it and then when I got in the race I just I didn't want to lose that's Lance Armstrong the seven time tour to France champion who was stripped of his titles when it was proved that he along with many cyclists of his era had been doping.

I'd asked Armstrong what drove him when he was a kid is a 46 year old and I look back on it and really really far removed from that part of my life.

There probably things I mean I didn't have I didn't grow up on the street but I didn't grow up behind a white pick events with you know 2.3 brothers and sisters in an SUV and a mom and a dad my mom and I was scrappers and.

I never met my biological father and i'm not making excuses here but I'm just trying to you know there was the only father figures in my life for my coaches did you I was going to ask did you ride angry I don't mean quite angry but you were you know.

You can say angry and confident all right angry yeah.

I didn't walk around angry I just felt it served me best to be angry the anger part and I also know that this happens in every locker room of every sport so let's just say right let's just use Texas football and Oklahoma football is the biggest rival where you have the week leading up to the game.

Those coaches every single day guess what is posted on the board in the university Texas long horns locker room meeting room it is articles and quotes from the other team we're going to kick their ass that so and so player he's he's mediocre in the coaches they love that hey Joey did you see.

What number 82 said about you and so we if I didn't have that if I didn't have a rival speaking out of the press and I saw Armstrong last week you look average he looked like he's passed his best if I didn't have that which I did plenty of times then I make it up i go read some article i'd say that mother can you believe that he said that and the next day i go out and train and it

would be the only thing on my mind now it sounds a little toxic.

But it made me ride harder made me train harder made me hustle you know I think insecurity jio's me really really hard carry walls Jennings again at every kind of leveling up you know from eighth grade to high school high school college college to the Olympic team there was a moment there were many moments of insecurity and the transition many moments of oh s h i t can I

do this am I good enough it's exhausting.

It's really exhausting I want to leave this sport being known as a bad mother.

So yes most of the athletes we've heard from were extraordinarily driven and talented but of course they've also had to work incredibly hard at perfecting their craft most of them at least remember Donald Thomas our high jumping friend.

And he goes clear Donald Thomas goes clear to me to stand in five.

David Epstein interviewed Thomas's college track coaches they said they would usually find him like outside you know shooting free throws when he was supposed to be inside learning how to high jump most athletes however do train incredibly hard in part because they're not allowed not to by their coaches their teams maybe their parents but of course they also push

themselves. I think it's about how much you want it how much you love it and how much you're willing to sacrifice for it.

Mike McGlinchey is an offensive lineman on the NFL's Denver Broncos.

I was never the best athlete on my team I was I'm still not the best athlete on my team here but I've always wanted it more I've always worked harder than everybody else and just attention to detail and the things that you need to know how to self correct you need to know how to learn.

Knowing how to learn is particularly valuable when the skills you're trying to learn are unusual playing offensive line is one of the more unnatural human movements on earth and sport I think you're required to move other large men out of the way and when you're trying to stop them in past protection you're completely moving backwards so it's a really really different

thing to have to learn how to do.

Until your body can feel it until you can watch it on film and self diagnosed right when things happen that's where the separation comes in.

So many is like pretty difficult.

That's the moon manual who won two gold and two silver medals at the 2016 Olympics because you're in the water which is like totally defying gravity you have to work out every day because if you're out the water for one day even when I take my day off on Sunday when I come back Monday morning I have to.

I feel terrible and you have to kind of practice all of those aspects of the sport on a regular basis or else you're not going to improve.

There's also the fact that the training opportunities in some sports are inherently constrained ski racing is a really unique sport in many ways.

McKillish ifrin when you think about it the actual time that I spend or any racer spends on the hill actually skiing during a day of training let's say you get one course length is about 60 seconds long and you get seven runs in one training session and that takes about.

Somewhere between three to five hours depending on how long the chair lift takes so you're adding up about seven minutes total of practice in your sport for the entire training session which is comparative to say three to five hours of somebody playing tennis in a single session which makes me feel like the deliberate practice component is that much more central.

You know there's skiers out there teammates of mine in the past who spend their time from the top of the chair lift to the top of the race course it could be half of a trail length that they're skiing down and they're just kind of like flailing about and doing whatever and I was like doing drills to the top of the course trying to make use of every square inch of space on the mountain every

time I'm deliberately practicing skiing and my technique and everything then I'm kind of getting a one up on everybody else who's not.

Because it's so demanding to master the skill set that accompanies each sport whether it's skiing or swimming or football you can imagine an aspiring athlete would want to spend as much time as possible on that skill set and not waste time on say other sports.

This has become a huge debate in youth sports at what age should an athlete stop playing other sports and commit to theirs and once they do commit is it definitively better to spend most of your time in deliberate structured practice or what about a more free flowing unstructured environment what sometimes called deliberate play.

You know, I totally agree with this notion that there's something to be gained from less structure that again is JJ reddick now coach of the LA Lakers as an example he brings up his former teammate Jamal Crawford Jamal is one of the best ball handlers in NBA history set a fantastic career.

Jamal will tell you he's really never done a drill he's never done a ball handling drill but he has incredible ball handling skills and he's done that through just playing pickup or taking a basketball around his neighborhood when he was growing up and literally putting moves on bystanders as he passed them in the street.

Reddick's own view on unstructured versus structured practice evolved over time I had a teammate in Orlando's name is Anthony Johnson I played with him for two years he was much older this was early in my career and about five years after we saw playing together I met up with him for lunch and I was telling him about all the workouts I was doing that summer and he said

to me, dude don't worry about being the best workout guy worry about being the best player.

And it kind of annoyed me when he said that but I thought about him saying that probably 50 times over the last five years for me part of it is I want structure I feel like I thrive in structure I like having a plan I like going to a gym and saying this is what I'm going to work on today.

But then the other part of it is it's sport right there's something organic about it there's something that has to flow naturally and if your point of reference is only structure well the game is not really structured right you're constantly reacting to things as they happen there's nine other players there's one ball.

And so I think that's actually been incredible advice for me over the last five years of my career JJ red a grew up in rural Virginia and his practice environment then was pretty unstructured my dad put up a hoop and it was just for me being in that backyard and shooting a basketball and seeing it go through the net became just an obsession and it's something that I wanted

to do over and over again and repeat over and over again.

When we spoke with reddick he was trying to reconnect with that unstructured practice environment you get a safe place to work on your weaknesses and improve those weaknesses look if I go into a gym and I've got 30 people in the gym watching it's a little nerve-wracking to work on your weaknesses in front of people in a structured setting but alone away from any lights

you know I'm going to work on your work you know it's a more calming experience and you can gain confidence from doing that.

So what does the research say about the relative benefits of structured versus unstructured practice or what you might call deliberate practice versus deliberate play one study of 22 young Brazilian basketball players tried to answer this question.

The researchers put half the players in organized games with referees and coaches the other half played in unstructured games after 18 sessions the researchers measured the change in the players tactical intelligence and creativity.

The kids in the unstructured practice showed significant games on both dimensions the kids who played in the structured games showed no improvement.

It's just one small study but it would seem to offer some evidence at least on youth level that less structure can be beneficial.

And how about specialization a lot of young athletes and especially their parents seem to think the best move is to pick yours for early and focus solely on that sport.

Man it drives me nutty. Carry Walsh Jennings.

It's just I think it's such a flawed place to come from specialization and anything let alone when you're a child and you're eight years old you do not need to pick your sport that you're going to maybe get a college scholarship for you know and play 365 24 seven which is mentally and spiritually and physically just it'll crush you.

So I have a major problem with the way things are right now I absolutely know that I am a great athlete because I did everything growing up and I wanted to be a great athlete.

Yeah I was never that child that turned 10 years old and said oh my gosh I need to give up everything and everyone and just commit my life to the Olympics.

The gymnast Sean Johnson.

I had this you know blue collar family all American Midwest just kind of parents that wanted me to be normal and they push me to be in so many sports and so many activities and try the oboe and clarinet and panel practice and mock trial and all these things that kind of distracted me from the Olympic dream.

But it always gave me this perspective of I love everything but I love gymnastics more and so whenever I was at gymnastics practice I focused more than any other activity and gave more effort there because I knew that was my favorite.

There's some research to back up these stories from Johnson and wall shennings so for example after the last world cup group of German scientists published a study where they attract the development of soccer players in Germany.

That's David Epstein and he's talking about the 2014 world cup and found that the athletes who went on to the national team which by the way won that world cup had played more different sports when they were younger spent more time in self structured or unstructured soccer play when they were younger but not more time in deliberately structured soccer training

only by age 22. Today start playing fewer sports and spending more time in structured soccer than athletes who plateaued at lower levels so this sort of less structured development turns out to be completely characteristic of athletes who go on to become elite.

Okay, but what if you are a young athlete or the parent of one and your ultimate goal isn't to become an elite professional athlete but rather to get into an elite university.

Like one of the top 10 schools in the country.

You know, I've actually been thinking about that exact problem.

Let's Steve Levitt, my free economics friend and co-author.

He's an economist at the University of Chicago.

By my calculation, about 0.4% of kids, so about 1 in 250 kids will make it to one of those top 10 schools.

So it's a hard hard goal to do it.

And I can't say I thought about the universe of things you could do, but I thought about sports.

And I stumbled onto something that was pretty surprising to me.

So the answer I think is you want your kid to be a fencer.

Now, you might say that sounds crazy.

Like this college fencing even exists.

And the answer is there turned out to be exactly 46 schools that have fencing.

But the correlation between quality of school and having a fencing team is incredibly high.

So for instance, among the top 10 ranked schools in the country, nine of those 10 have a fencing team.

The only exception being my own university university of Chicago.

In each fencing team has quite a few slots to fill.

There's three different blades.

There's app A, there's Saber and there's Foil, and there's Mail and there's Female Fencing.

And given that relatively few kids in the US are serious youth fensers.

So it's something like six or seven percent of the kids who ever try to be fensers end up being college fensers.

I'm not saying they get scholarships, but they're likely to be admitted to college based on their fencing.

How much does Levitt think fencing increases your chances from that point four percent baseline?

So fencing seems to raise that number holding everything else constant, something like 15 bold.

We should say here that college admissions being what they are fencing doesn't necessarily increase your chances all that much.

Your grades would still need to be very, very good to get into those top schools.

That said, as an admissions sweetener, how does Levitt think fencing compares to other sports?

Oh my god, if you want to go to an Ivy League school, forget about soccer and basketball and football.

There's something like 300,000 kids playing high school soccer, and presumably any of those kids would love to be college soccer players.

But the chance of having soccer be your vehicle to get the college as opposed to fencing turns out to be about 75 or 80 times harder.

So how many of your kids have you turned into fensers, Levitt?

Exactly one, and so far so good.

I couldn't say I really turned them into a fencer.

He's strangely enough gravitated towards fencing when he was about nine years old, and he fences at a really good club in Chicago.

And I don't know if grades aren't that good.

So he knows, and I know, and everybody else knows, if he's going to go to an Ivy League school, it's going to be because of fencing.

Coming up after the break, the story of an athlete who did go to an Ivy League school, but when it came time to go pro, that apparently counted against him.

If he had played at Kentucky here Duke, he would have been a top pick in the draft.

The problem was he played at Harvard.

Also, what's at risk when youth sports become professionalized?

It just scares me because it's become so much of a business under of itself, unless about true, true, true development.

I'm Stephen Dubner, this is Freakinomics Radio, and you were listening to a bonus episode, an update from our archive called, Here's why you are not an elite athlete.

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As we've been hearing, there are a lot of inputs that go into the production of an elite athlete.

Talent, drive, the right kind of practice, maybe a parent or two to get you to the rink or the gym or the track at 5 a.m.

And as Sean Johnson told us earlier, you might need some luck.

I mean, you can't get hurt.

You can't have the flu on the wrong day.

You have to find the right coach in the right city.

I was incredibly lucky to end up with my coaches.

So how'd that happen? It was kind of this freak occurrence.

My coach was Chinese, born and raised Chinese.

When he was three years old, he was taken away from his family and raised to be an Olympic gymnast.

And he kind of had this crazy career that I would say almost traumatized him.

He lost his childhood. He kind of lost his family.

This crazy career. So when he was 21 years old, he actually left China, came to the United States, opened a gym in West Des Moines, Iowa of all places, and had this dream, this American dream, to raise an Olympian or Olympians that were also children and had a balance in life and were, you know, fun loving and had a true childhood.

Johnson had started her training at a different gym.

And I loved it. It was awesome.

But, Chao, my coach, that took me to the Olympics, opened up a gym about five minutes for my parents' house.

And my parents ended up switching me because it saved gas money.

And I was really, really blessed to fall under his guidance and his coaching.

I mean, I was a very, very fortunate child within the gymnastics community to have very loving, very, very protective people around me.

And he, I mean, given today's society, I can thankfully, say that he kept me safe.

And I am forever grateful for that.

Sean Johnson's good luck created good opportunities, which she worked hard to parlay into an Olympic gold medal.

But what about the young athletes who don't get the right opportunities, whether through bad luck, or through something much more concrete, like lack of money?

In 2022, the youth sports industry was worth more than $35 billion.

It's expected to hit nearly $70 billion by the end of the decade.

And a lot of youth sports involve some sort of pay to play model.

Pay to play is something that just scares me because it's become so much of a business under of itself and less about true, true, true development.

That's Brandon McCarthy.

He was a pitcher in Major League Baseball, seven teams, over 13 seasons.

It's a tournament in California this weekend.

The next weekend you go to Nevada and after that, it's Texas.

And I don't understand how two working parents could ever afford to put their kids through that and then take the time to travel with them.

You know, the theme of economics, the last like 10 or 15 years has been income inequality and connected to that, the rich getting richer.

It sounds like what you're saying with youth sports is that's being mirrored all the way down the line, yes?

I would think so. I mean, there's two players on your team and one player at the age 13 level can make all the tournaments in the summer.

And one can only make two of the tournaments.

Well, how much playing time is the player who whose family can't afford for him to go on those trips and then the coach doesn't favor him and play him.

I think there's that trickle down effect from there and there's less access to top coaching, lessons, equipment, you name it over time.

It's starting to bear itself out as some incoming quality just creates better baseball players and worse baseball players.

Or in one note where the instance a huge drop in baseball players in 1981, there was 18.7% African American players in the major leagues as of 2018, 7.8%.

So the question is why the decline.

David Canton is a history professor and director of African American studies at the University of Florida.

The huge drop of black players in baseball, he argues, has a number of historical causes, including the relative rise of black football and basketball players.

But he puts most of the blame on deeper structural issues.

So I look at these factors, deindustrialization, mass incarceration and suburbanization.

So at deindustrialization, lack of tax base, we know there's no funds to what construct and maintain ball fields.

So you see the rapid decline of the physical space in the Bronx, in Chicago, in these other urban areas, which leads to what lack of participation.

Suburbanization, Canton says, had a similar effect, drawing resources away from cities with large African American populations.

What's left in the cities abandoned fields, lack of resources, decrease in tax base?

And then there's incarceration, Ken says, which has a disproportionately high impact on African Americans.

So I can imagine 1980, if you were 18 year old black man in LA, Chicago, New York, all of a sudden you're getting locked up for nonviolent fences.

So I'm going to assume that you played baseball.

I'm arguing that those men, if you did a survey and go to prison today, federal state, I bet you a nice percentage of these guys played baseball.

Now some were not old enough to have children.

And the one that did weren't there to teach their son to play baseball, to volunteer little league because they were in jail for nonviolent offenses.

Added all up, David Canton says.

And this explains the huge decline of African Americans in baseball, which, by the way, has been countered by a huge rise.

In players from Latin America that said, Major League Baseball is well aware of and concerned by the drop off in African American players.

So we have a league called the RBI league, which is reviving baseball in the inner cities.

That's Kim. When we interviewed her, she was Major League Baseball's senior vice president of international baseball development.

A few years later, she became general manager of the Florida Marlins, the first female GM in league history.

So we've seen academies develop in Kansas City, in Philadelphia, New Orleans, Washington, DC.

And these academies are really providing opportunity for young kids, particularly of color, to come and train with us.

Free of charge, of course, and you're really holding their skills.

So the RBI program, people like C.C.

Subathe and Yankees, he went through it.

They do have some success stories, but most of those players are not successful.

The reality is, is that baseball is for people with resources.

Most Major League players with African American come from middle class backgrounds.

They have the resources for travel baseball, which is expensive, personal training.

And I think there's a cultural thing that if you're middle class African American, you are comfortable being in predominantly white spaces.

And we don't want to talk about that because as we know, everybody's a good person, but we know racism privileged our systems.

Let me give you an example.

If you play A. U. basketball, you're the white guy.

Trust me. Your space is African American.

So from March to July, you are going to be a black guy's all summer.

Your parents are going to be a black family's all summer.

Let's switch to the baseball.

If you're a black middle class kid, go up in the suburbs, you are comfortable being the only black in the all white space all summer.

So they're the ones that are more likely to be in the Major leagues.

You could argue that sports are among the most meritocratic endeavors that humans do.

After all, when you're measuring outcomes with stopwatch or yardstick by whether the ball goes in the net or doesn't, you'd think that an athlete's background, where they come from, what they look like, that it wouldn't matter much.

But sometimes it does. Professional sports teams in particular often have very conservative mindset.

They tend to go looking for players who look a lot like their previous players, which means they might overlook someone who absolutely should not have been overlooked.

In 2012, the New York Knicks went on a 9-3 winning streak, sparked by an obscure young point guard named Jeremy Lin.

Pucks it in! And a foul! Wow!

Jeremy Lin does it again!

It even looks like his teammates don't believe what they're seeing.

During this 12-game stretch, Lin averaged 22.5 points and 8.7 assists.

If you don't know basketball numbers, well, those are good ones.

Lin's success was so dramatic, so unpredictable that it produced a movement.

Lin's sanity continues here at Madison Square Garden.

Lin's success was so much that he could not have been able to get a good score.

He was able to get a good score.

Lin played nine years in the NBA and he now plays in Taiwan.

His final contract in the NBA was a three-year deal worth more than $38 million.

How could someone worth nearly $13 million a year have been assigned a value of essentially zero?

Let's ask one of the people who did take an early look at Jeremy Lin.

Darrell Mori, general manager of the Houston Rockets.

He was able to get a good score.

The people I was close with in high school, like those aren't my friends anymore.

People I was close with in college, like not really my friends anymore.

And then at 35, and DC where my wife has a bunch of family and friends that she's been close with since they were in a second grade.

And I'm like, I don't really have that.

And like, I was making these choices, which I thought were choices to get me what you wanted.

And I didn't realize at the time that I was foregoing like long lasting relationships.

And while you're a professional athlete, you walk around with this skepticism, frankly, of all new people in your life.

So even if there were like the potential of some great friendships, like I was an open tool.

Yeah, I'd go to these places, people, oh, you're a football player.

And I'd pretend and be nice to them because that's what you do.

And then you move on. And then you're 35.

And you're like, hey, you haven't talked to your best friend from high school in 10 years.

So I feel like I'm in a perpetual state of transition, which is interesting and uncomfortable at the same time.

Coming up after the break, how far does it set you back if you pursue the athletic dream and don't make it?

The person who plays baseball is talking about 40% less on average, 10 years after they enter the game than the person who decides not to play baseball and who just wanted a regular career.

I'm Stephen Dubner. This is Freakonomics Radio.

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It's one thing. If all the sacrifices, all the opportunities for gone, translate into a successful athletic career as it did for Dominique Foxworth and Mark Tashera and Lauren Murphy.

What about the athletes who make the sacrifices but don't make the big time?

Just look at the numbers.

At any given time, there are only about 1700 players in the NFL.

In Major League Baseball, there are fewer than a thousand.

Roughly 80% of the athletes drafted by a Major League Baseball team never make it past the minor leagues.

One of those 80% was just in Humphries.

You get a phone call that says how does it feel to be the next member of the Houston Astros and you just get, you get, it's a dream come true.

So I ended up signing. He started playing minor league baseball at 18, which meant skipping college, although he did start taking some courses later on.

In 2009, he retired at age 27 without ever making the majors.

He enrolled at Columbia University and took a sociology class with a professor named Sudhir Vanke-Tash.

So as a sitting in their in this classroom, I started thinking about all the issues that I had seen in independent baseball and affiliated baseball.

Guys living, check to check, struggling with whether they should go back to school, family life, issues at home.

And I thought if I could use some of the things that we were learning in class, talk to some of these guys and find out whether the stories and things that I was seeing and hearing would reflect the number.

We followed a sample of the draft class of 2001.

And so that's about, you know, it's 10 years.

And that is Sudhir Vanke-Tash.

And so we thought that would help us to understand what happens to these folks.

I think one of the most curious things that we find is how much 10 years matter.

So if you take two people who grew up in the same circumstances, let's say one played baseball and one didn't, the person who plays baseball is making about 40% less on average 10 years after they enter the game than the person who decides not to play baseball and who just wanted a regular career.

All right. So what kind of background is typical for these players you're tracking?

The average player probably looks like a player who is going to be in the middle of the game.

Which player probably looks like an upper middle class kid who comes out of college or comes out of high school.

And when you follow an upper middle class kid for about seven to 10 years, they're probably going to make higher than the median average income.

They're probably going to live in a neighborhood that's relatively safe.

They're going to have a career.

Now when you take the counterpart among the pool that was drafted, that median kid, that kid looks like he's making about 20 to $24,000 a year, which is not a lot of money.

He's working probably five to seven months playing baseball and then struggling to find part-time work in the off season.

Might be coaching, might be doing some training, might be working on a construction site, might be working in fast food.

Well, when you're 25 playing an independent ball making less than $2,000 a month, living off your parents, because you can't financially sustain yourself like that.

At some point you have to say, look, I've got, with no degree, I had less than an associate's degree at that point.

So at some point you have to tell yourself, I can't do this to myself.

I can't do this to my parents.

And I can't continue when I know there's untapped potential to do other things.

Knowing when to quit anything is hard, especially if it means abandoning a lifelong dream.

Quitting an athletic dream is especially hard, because baked into the ethos of sport is the idea that you should never quit, never give up, never back down.

But think about it. If you had been playing in the minor leagues or some equivalent for a decade, would you really think your moment was ever going to come?

Would you really think there was any chance at all?

Before you answer, I'd like to introduce you to someone named Andre Ingram.

Hey Steve, how you doing man, sorry I'm late.

No, no, no worries. Let's talk a little bit about your background.

I believe grew up in Richmond, Virginia, where you still live, is that right?

That's correct. I'm curious, is your family the same Ingram family of the gospel group, the Ingramettes?

That's very good, yep, that's exactly correct.

That's on my father's side.

And then tell me about you.

Are you musical or are you talented?

No, my brother and I are the athletes.

It's funny, because everyone else in our family is musically gifted in some way.

My brother and I, we got none of that.

So yeah, we just, we got that athletics.

Ingram was a good basketball player in high school and then played his college ball at American University a solid basketball program, but hardly elite.

It had produced only one NBA player in its history.

Ingram was a three point shot specialist and he left American as its fifth leading all-time score.

But that was not enough to get drafted into the NBA, so he entered the NBA's minor league, which at the time was called the D-league, the D-standing for development, since it's name and a sponsorship deal to the G-league, with the G-standing for Gatorade.

Anyway, Andre Ingram entered the D-league with the hopes of being called up to the NBA.

He wound up staying for 10 years.

It pays so poorly, around $40,000 a season, that most young players just give it a year or two before going to play pro in Europe or elsewhere.

Ingram tried Australia briefly, didn't like it.

Plus, he wanted to stay nearby, just in case the NBA finally came calling.

There were many times where I was, you know, ready to just turn the other way and do something else and, you know, wife and kids, family, you know, the D-league or G-league is not paying you much, like, you know, you need to do something else.

Like, I came to that point so many times and, you know, something kept me going every time.

But he did keep going. He was playing for a D-league team called the South Bay Lakers who were owned by the Los Angeles Lakers.

Ingram led the G-league in three-point shooting percentage.

But still, he was 32 years old by now and still in the G-league.

For extra money, he tutored kids in math.

At the end of the season, he was called in for his regular exit interview.

So, you know, I'm thinking, all right, this is, you know, the same old thing.

But then we get upstairs, we get in this big conference room and not only is the GM and head coach there, our president is there.

And I'm like, okay, this is a bit different.

I've done this before. And usually our president's not here.

The president he's talking about was the president of basketball operations not for the South Bay Lakers, but for the Los Angeles Lakers, magic Johnson.

So, you know, hard is kind of racing at that moment and then they tell me the news.

The news was that the LA Lakers, with just two games left in their season, were calling Andre Ingram up to the top.

He was calling Andre Ingram up to play.

He would make his NBA debut at age 32.

But just everything that I was feeling is exactly what you thought.

Or with anybody would think knowing my story, knowing my situation, I just didn't let it out like my wife and my mom did when I told them to lose.

They let it out. They just let it be raw and, you know, the real emotion that, you know, people love to see.

I was a little bit more subdued, but was feeling it all inside.

Immediately after that, though, my first thought goes to, okay, who do we play again tomorrow?

They were playing the Houston Rockets.

Late in the first quarter, Ingram finally got his chance to play in the NBA.

11 years, 384 games after his professional career begins.

Andre Ingram, I'm getting called up by the Lakers.

You know, I think before I got there, in the night before, was when all the emotions were running wild and I'm not sure how to feel and you're so excited yet nervous and all these other things.

But when it came time for the actual game, it really turned into basketball very quickly for me and made things a whole lot easier.

How easy was it? Down it goes!

Make it first! First to the NBA Andre Ingram.

Makes his first try. That is awesome!

Ingram scored 19 points at night, including four three point shots.

It was one of the best debuts in Lakers history.

It was one of the most amazing debuts ever, the 32-year-old rookie.

Ingram, on its way again!

The crowd began chanting MVP, MVP.

Ingram, over Capella and one, count it!

So we had no idea the reach of this until my brother and my niece had called and told me, they said, hey, you are blowing up on Twitter, you're blowing up on Instagram, you know, you're everywhere and you just have no idea.

So I know that you're a great three point shooter, historically great.

But forgive me for saying this.

Your shot looks a little bit ugly, if I'm being honest with you, Andre.

You know, it's a little off balance.

And I know it works, but I'm really curious to ask you.

I don't mean just to insult you.

It's an insult with a question.

No, I get it. Do you think that maybe is part of what's kept teams in the past from giving you a shot at the NBA?

And I asked this thinking about the story about Jeremy Lin, who so many teams overlooked, and they later admitted, they overlooked him because he was an Asian guy, and he didn't fit the template of what, you know, an NBA player was.

And I'm curious if whether you think that your untraditional shot may have hurt you in some way, even if just like perception wise.

You know what? That, I mean, it's a good question.

I don't think so. I would say the gray hair probably has more to do with it, but if I had to guess, maybe the awkwardness of the shot, or not so much the awkwardness of it, but the release point of it, because it's a bit lower than most guys.

I'm already not the tallest guy.

So maybe there is worry about, well, hey, this shot is going to get blocked in our league.

The guys are too athletic for him to get that off.

So maybe that was a thought to be honest with you.

All right. So here's the big question.

What's your future? Yeah, so right now, my agent is in talks with, you know, different teams, we're trying to get into a training camp right now.

That's the goal. And, you know, hopefully, there'll be some new sooner where I'll be, but nowhere yet.

So what happens if, you know, you don't get in a training camp, you don't get to play for an NBA team.

What do you do this coming season?

Yeah, well, it could definitely be the G league again.

You know, and it could be another season of it.

I mean, the job for me is simple, you know, just stay ready.

But the goal is, and we will be continuing to play that much I can tell you.

It's interesting, you know, as a sports fan, I've been, you know, my whole life seen people trying to squeeze meaning out of sports beyond the game itself.

And a lot of times, it feels kind of forced.

But it strikes me that your story was really different.

What is the lesson that we maybe should take from your story?

What I would like for people to get out of it the most is that it wasn't just that, you know, I stuck with it all the way through and was happy about it all the time.

I definitely had doubts ahead, you know, disbelief.

I had this encouragement.

You know, you don't get to something or any dream or anything worth having.

Just, you know, Scott free.

Nothing that part about it is the realest part.

Andre Ingram never had the NBA career he hoped for.

After those final two games of the 2018 season, he went back to the G League.

He was called up for another short spell with the Lakers the next season, but that was it for the NBA.

He did make his mark in the G League.

He holds league records for most games played and most three pointers.

And in 2020, he was elected president of the G League's brand new players union.

He last played professionally in 2022 and then stepped away to care for his mother who had been diagnosed with cancer.

But now Ingram says he's hoping to come back to the G League.

To play us out today, here is his family's gospel group Maggie Ingram and the Ingramettes with a song called Work Until I Die.

Three Kingdoms Radio is produced by Stitcher and Renbud Radio.

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This episode was produced by Anders Keltow, with help from Derek John and Harry Huggins and updated by Theo Jacobs.

Our staff also includes Alina Kalman, Augusta Chapman, Delvin Abelagi, Elner Osborne, Elsa Hernandez, Gabriel Roth, Greg Ripon, Jasmine Klinger, Jeremy Johnston, John Schnarr, Julie Canfer, Lyork Baudich, Morgan Levy, Neil Caruth, Rebecca Lee Douglas, Sarah Lilly, and Zach Lepinsky.

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[The Hidden Factors of Athletic Greatness: Talent, Luck, and the Reality of Elite Performance]-[EXTRA: Here’s Why You’re Not an Elite Athlete (Update)]

📋 Summary

The Multifactorial Nature of Athletic Success

The Role of Innate Ability and Genetics

The Debate: Structured vs. Unstructured Practice

The Hidden Costs and Barriers to Entry

Perseverance and the Narrative of the Outlier

🎯Key Sentences

📝Key Phrases

📖 Transcript