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Hello and welcome to World Today, I am Ding Hun, in Beijing.
Coming up, Vladimir Putin calls on China and Russia to further strengthen strategic cooperation.
The United States is sending more warplanes to reinforce its military capability in the Middle East as Iran tensions build.
Denmark's Prime Minister is visiting Greenland amid mounting pressure from U .S. President Donald Trump to control the island.
And we are going to explore what's behind the skyrocketing rice prices in Japan.
To listen to this episode again, or to catch up on our previous episodes, download our podcast by searching World Today.
First up, Russian President Vladimir Putin has caught on China and Russia to enhance their strategic cooperation amid global turbulence.
The Russian leader made a remark in a meeting with visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in the Kremlin.
Putin emphasized deepening China -Russia cooperation in various fields.
Wang Yi said bilateral ties have become a resilient partnership featuring deepening political trust, closer strategic alignment and sustained cooperation.
The senior Chinese diplomat has also held talks with his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, to discuss bilateral and international issues.
So joining us now on the line is Dr. Zhang Xin, Deputy Director of the Center for Russian Studies with East China Normal University.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Thank you for having me.
So first of all, Dr. Zhang, do you agree that by working together and enhancing their strategic coordination and cooperation, China and Russia can jointly deliver more stability to a world of turbulence?
Today, I think that's a true statement of reality.
We have been, as you correctly called, increasingly turbulent to the world, and several major political forces in the world are trying to destabilize the status quo of the international system, both in terms of the political stability and stability in the field of international law.
I think the recent performance of the Trump administration is particularly illustrative in this regard. the call by the Trump administration to either claim a territory of another sort of a state as potentially its own or the call to retake certain territory under its control, whether it's the Panama Canal or the purchase of a green light, et cetera.
So all of these are very illustrative, of to counter those efforts to destabilize the status quo.
When the political structure on the global scale rapidly drifting from a stable equilibrium, that we see again from US side in particular, I think that China, Russia jointly, are becoming even more of the center of the political structure spectrum.
So in that sense, I think their joint efforts can bring more stability to this increasing turbulence.
So Mr. Putin has told Wang Yi that he is looking forward to a Chinese delegation attending the Victory Day in Moscow later this year.
When we talk about this year's key anniversary of humanity's victory against fascism in history, What do you make of the meaning of China and Russia celebrating this key anniversary together?
The 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War, or in Russian context, and often called the Great Patriotic War, or in the Chinese context, often called the anti -Japanese War, are a significant historical event on a global scale.
Most importantly, today's international system, the foundation of today's international system, was primarily established as the result of the end of the Second World War, including all the major political and legal systems that served as the foundation of a stable world.
Almost all of them were established, gained its legitimacy, gained its functional efficiency as the result of the Second World War.
At this particular moment, China and Russia, who jointly, officially jointly celebrate this anniversary, serve I think a few goals, a few different purposes.
One is to commemorate the importance of World War II.
Remind the world, including those who want to change the status quo, reminding the world that the victory over the fascist forces, the victory in the World War II is the foundation of today's international system.
Secondly, I think the joint commemoration also serves as a important, powerful counterforce against those forces that are, in different ways, trying to reframe, rewrite the history about World War II, even including those also that trying to glorify Nazis and glorify certain aspects of the behavior of Nazi Germany or Japanese fascists, right?
So I think that's another major purpose of his significance of this joint commemoration of the 80s anniversary of World War II.
In the meantime, during his meeting with Mr. Sergey Lavrov, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China is not ready to work more closely with Russia to create a multipolar world order.
In this regard, we can think about platforms like the BRICS, or the Shanghai Cooperation organization in which both Beijing and Moscow are very, very fundamentally involved here.
So fundamentally, why is a multi -polar world order in the interest of both Russia and China?
So I would even go beyond that to say a multi -polar world order is in the interest of most countries On most peoples, hmm, well, particularly given the devastating consequence of a unipolar world that we see at the end of, since the end of Cold War, that statement becomes even more relevant.
The past three decades, particularly the first two, maybe two -and -a -half decades, since early We all agree this is a US -led unipolar world, but the problem with that kind of international structure is a single we might call hydroponic power can do whatever it likes and can impose its will on all other members of international society.
We have to see the really devastating effects in terms of both in the field of, for example, protecting of a state sovereignty.
Also maintaining a fair justice internal system of economic relations.
You see devastating impact on these views.
And I think that this this negative consequence was felt not only by countries like China in Russia, as I just mentioned.
It's deeply felt by many other countries in the world, like the common negative response to the recent unilateral financial sanctions levied by US against other sovereign states.
So I think in that sense, a multipolar world is going to serve much better the interest of, again, not only China and Russia, but most sovereign states in the world, as well as most people did." I take your point.
So, the Chinese Foreign Minister has openly welcomed those recent measures or recent steps taken by both Russian and the U .S. side to try to improve their ties.
What do you think a better Russia -U .S. relationship might mean to China?
Dr. Zhang, I'm asking this question because - you know better than I do because U .S. officials and some U .S. political analysts, they sometimes tend to describe ties between China and Russia as a so -called marriage of convenience in the face of joint Western pressure.
Some have even suggested or proposed a so -called reverse Nixon strategy, referring to former American President Richard Nixon's 1972 Cold War period policy to contain the former USSR by engaging with Beijing.
What is your take on this in general?
Yes, I think the reverse Nixon effect has been really flared up in the international media, particularly in the Anglophone world.
I think there is even in terms of basic facts, there is a fundamental difference between In the late Soviet period, the so called Nixon visit to China has played out, and the current trilateral relation between US, China, and Russia, because the Nixon's visit managed to sort of utilize the existing tensions relation between Soviet Union and China at that time.
That's how Nixon was successful, because there was already a very serious tension between Soviet Union and Russia.
Soviet Union and China since late 60s in early 70s.
But that is not the case right now between China and Russia.
So I don't think the reverse Nixon effect will be easily played out or will be easily replicated.
And also I think the current bilateral relation between China and Russia has its own logic beyond the tri -lateral framework, has its own logic for maintaining a stable, stable long term relations, beyond itself, potential impact on China, US or Russian relations.
and that has been stated many times by Chinese leaders, Chinese top officials, too.
And I think that's also the message we see from Mr. Wang, his ongoing visit to Moscow, from the Chinese readout, the Russian readout.
I think it's very clear that both sides emphasized the so -called independent or indigenous knowledge of bilateral relations between China and Russia, beyond any possible impact on the relative bilateral relations with the United States.
And on the Russian -U .S. relations in terms of the possibility that the two sides may be able to work out a peace deal regarding the war in Ukraine, I think overall the Chinese States is open for that and welcome any possible means to end their military conflict as soon as possible.
So I think that's not going to be a barrier on maintaining a reasonable Russia -China relationship overall.
Thank you very much for joining us today.
Dr. Zhang Xin from East China Normal University.
Coming up, we are going to explore how the new tariffs being imposed by the Trump administration might erode consumer and business confidence.
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U .S. President Donald Trump is imposing new tariffs targeting all American trading partners, including traditional allies such as Canada, South Korea, and the European Union.
The latest action is coming just a week after Donald Trump announced a 25 % tariff on all foreign -made cars entering the U .S. market, effective on Thursday.
Economists are warning that Trump's tariffs, which will tax on imports paid by American businesses and consumers, are eroding consumer and business confidence.
For more, my colleague Xia Wen earlier spoke with Andy Mahak, tech analyst and senior fellow What's the center for China and a globalization?
Andy, so first of all, White House spokesperson Caroline Livid used the term reciprocal to describe President Donald Trump's new tariffs, but is that the correct term to use?
Because from any perspective, this is a unilateral one, right?
What's your take on that?
Well, Yaowen that is a great question and I think certainly many countries, many companies around the world would interpret this as unilateral.
But I think in order to formulate effective responses, I think it's important to understand also why the Trump administration would consider this to be reciprocal.
The only way you can change people's behavior is if you understand what their assumptions are and what's motivating them.
So I think from the Trump administration's perspective they may not see it as unilateral because in their view, the U .S. has been taken advantage of by countries in Europe, even countries like Canada and Mexico, and there is a sense of crisis and a sense of threat that something has to be done urgently.
So it's easy to understand why many interpret this as unilateral, but I think at the same time we can hold another truth, which is the Trump administration may not agree and they're acting this way again to address what they see as an urgent and very important threat facing the United States.
Andy, President Donald Trump's new tariffs target all trade partners including traditional allies like Canada and Mexico and European Union, and these countries have expressed strong dissatisfaction and also they are planning to take retaliatory measures.
So, in your view, how might Trump's trade approach harm America's trade relationships with these allies?
Well, Yaowen, I think certainly given the size of the US economy and the market, especially for European countries like Germany and countries like Canada that are extremely reliant on the American market, this has the potential to be catastrophic.
And I think while no one really knows and perhaps even Trump himself might not know why these actions are being pursued, one certainly is a widespread recognition in the United States and among financial professionals around the world that the U .S. budget deficit is not sustainable.
and something must be done, and that's something, again according to President Trump, is universal tariffs that can bring in new sources of revenue.
Now whether this will really work or not remains to be seen, but again this is one reason.
Another again is this notion of equity or fairness.
Whatever the objective reality might be from the American perspective, some, certainly President Trump, believe that the United States has not been treated fairly by its, what he would call their so -called allies, in that they have been free -riders taking advantage of the American security guarantee, while at the same time, again in his words, eviscerating American businesses with unfair trade terms. So, again, whether this is true or not matters less than this is what the US or what Trump believes and is motivating his actions.
So, I think what we can say is that this could be enormously disruptive.
Countries that are prepared and have the resilience to face these challenges, and I would certainly put China in this category, may stand to benefit in the long run despite any short -term pain.
Do you think, like U .S. allies, they could unite together, maybe put some pressure on America to revise these policies?
Any possibility on that?
Well, I think there absolutely is this possibility, Yauen.
And I would say it's not even a possibility, but it is a strategic necessity.
And you know, this is in a way, we could think of as the tragedy of this situation in that The US perception of threat is causing it to take actions that of course very damaging to some of its most important trade partners that are also allies, but at the same time also damaging itself in the long run.
So I think that this is the tragedy.
Now the strategic necessity would be, of course, for countries in Europe to find ways to partner with Canada, Mexico and other countries to formulate a united front that can change the economic and political calculus.
Now, of course, we are also seeing this potential with China, South Korea and Japan as well, which I believe Foreign Minister Wang Yi has raised this as a topic.
And again, I don't see it just as a possibility but probably a strategic necessity.
Well, in the case of China, we know previously President Donald Trump has enacted new tariffs of around 20 % on top of existing 10 % duties that went into place during Trump's first term, and also China has responded.
So do you think these actions mark a full -scale escalation of the US -China trade war?
And how might U .S. new tariffs affect the global supply chains?
Well I think this is very hard to say, Yawen.
I think the biggest challenge here is really trying to understand what the U .S. actually wants to accomplish.
And the U .S., while the Trump administration is probably more accurate to say, perceives an urgent, perhaps even existential threat.
Now, whether that threat is the fiscal deficit, whether it's the rise of China, it's important to understand and then formulate the most effective responses.
For example, if the budget deficit is considered the most important threat facing the United States and the Trump administration, countries including China can find ways to work with the US in a mutually collaborative win -win way to address that challenge.
But as Wang Yi has said, a Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said, if these are just excuses for other objectives that are not articulated and of course this was in ...
I think Foreign Minister Wang Yi's comments were in regard to fentanyl as the reason why the US is imposing these tariffs.
But the behavior does not match the words.
So that makes it very hard for countries like China to work productively with the United States to solve whatever the real issues the U .S. has.
And I think this is probably the bigger challenge versus any specific economic or societal, even political issue, is whether the U .S. can accurately and faithfully share what its real concerns are.
Andy, some economists estimate that if President Donald Trump's tariffs policies continue for a year, U .S. GDP growth could slow by 1 percent.
And also, American consumers would face higher prices with inflation expectations reaching levels not seeing since 1993.
What do you make of these numbers?
How does this policy contradict with Trump's Make America Great Again and also America's First Agenda?
Yeah. So that's another great question, Yaowen.
And so I would make two points here.
So one is that I think we should, and I'm saying this as someone who has been trained in economics, that we should take economic forecasts with a grain of salt, and I'll share a couple of humorous quotes along these lines.
So Paul Samuelson, famous economist, has said economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions, and Lawrence Peter, who wrote the book The Peter Principle, has said an economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.
So I think that economics is not quite the predictive science that many people hope it is and really need it to be.
So that being said, and I say this because we often really don't know what the economic impact will be.
Now, I think also what Trump has said is that the country needs to endure short term pain for longer term gain.
And again, if we say that the budget deficit is a problem, US government efficiency and bureaucracy is a problem, that some painful, extreme, short term things need to happen for long term gain.
We have to see. I think no one really knows, but again, I think the key for other countries around the world is they must have the resilience, the courage, and the resources to be prepared to deal with a much more uncertain political environment.
And I go back to what President Xi has said multiple times, that these are changes unseen in a century.
And I think what we've seen, at least it's clear to me, is that China has prepared itself many ways from dealing with exactly these kinds of uncertainties.
Andy Mark, senior fellow with the Center for China and Globalization, talking to my colleague, Xu Yaowen.
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U .S. Defense Secretary Peter Hexxas has deployed more warplanes to reinforce U .S. military capability in the Middle East. Pentagon's announcement came a few days after U .S. President Donald Trump threatened Iran with bombing and secondary tariffs.
if Tehran didn't come to a deal with Washington over its nuclear program.
No detail was given with regard to which type of aircraft were being deployed or where exactly they were sent.
And the United States has been carrying out a bombing campaign in Yemen for more than two weeks.
Joining us now on the line is Dr. Zhang Qiuqu, Deputy Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies with Fudan University.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Welcome back. Already, there seems to be considerable amount of American fire power in the Middle East. For example, the United States military will soon have two aircraft carriers in that particular region.
With that in mind, what do you think could be the intent of deploying more warplanes to the region?
Actually, if we look at what is going on, I think it is worth noting that warplanes provide flexibility, as they can be used both for defensive and offensive objectives.
So obviously, I think Scrum wants to leave more space for his strategies and to have more flexible space.
And I think right now there are at least three purposes.
The first purpose is to give quick response and strong counterattack to what the United States perceives as threats from the Houthi rebels.
And I think right now it tries to deter regional adversaries such as Iran and its allies.
So this kind of build up could be a precaution against a worsening situation and I think the second purpose is to reassure partners like Israel and to show that the United States will continue providing unconditional support for them.
But I think there is another important purpose of Trump that is to demonstrate that he's still interested and capable of maintaining the United States influence in the Middle East because in the past people often say that maybe Trump wants to to sort of largely retreat, but right now he wants to show that he will not leave a political vacuum for the other powers to fill in.
So specifically with regard to Iran related issues, we know that the US killing of General Qasem Soleimani in 2019 and early 2020 was seen by many observers as the only foreign war action taken by Trump during his first term in office, Do you think Trump, on Sunday, threatened Iran with bombing and secondary tariffs?
We know that the killing of General Soleimani suggests that Trump is not afraid to use force.
Soleimani's death proved Trump is a hardline figure.
Trump's current rhetoric aligns with his maximum pressure approach towards Iran, which means that he would blend different strategies, including sanctions, threats, and maybe occasional strikes in order to force compliance.
But I think it could still be a bluff at the moment, because as a transactionalist politician, Trump right now loves leverage.
so for him threats are like his negotiating tour.
So on the one hand, I think Trump has taken the maximum pressure before but this has not gained what he wants and right now we can see that actually Iran does not want to prove the United States, so he doesn't have a lot of excuses.
And now his priority is actually to sign a new nuclear deal with Iran compromising a lot, so that is to escalate the situation, it's not what he wants.
On the other hand, I think Trump wants to reduce its diplomatic and military investment in the Middle East. So, threatening Iran with bombing can only make things complicated and drag the United States deeper in the region.
I think that doesn't fit into his interest. Realistically speaking, is the United States right now capable of launching strikes on Iran's nuclear program?
Well, in fact, the United States has the military muscle to hit Iran's nuclear program.
Also, we have to take into mind that he has very strong capability in terms of intelligence and it has long been tracking Iran's nuclear size via diverse means.
But for the parts of the United States, I think it might not want to act on its own but might ask Israel to take action.
But right now, I think there are still two points worth noting.
On the one hand, Iran has dispersed its access.
Some of them are deep underground, so it is very hard for the United States or Israel to launch all of them, and to attack and destroy all of them.
And secondly, the United States is implementing the strategy of balancing various forces in the Middle East. So let's say if any very strong force is completely destroyed in the region, It is actually not in the interest of the United States.
Therefore, I think it may not easily choose to attack Iran's nuclear facilities.
Iran's Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has on Monday responded that the United States would receive a strong blow if Trump followed through with his threat against Iran.
So what what kind of cards do you think the Iranian side is holding right now in terms of giving the United States a strong blow?
Well, Khamenei has warned of a strong blow in response to a potential United States military action, and that signals that Iran possesses a range of capabilities to retaliate.
But to be honest, right now Iran has very few cards.
As we know, Iran's asymmetric warfare capabilities, particularly through its alliance network, have been heavily hit by Israel during the last year.
And right now we can see that Hezbollah and Hamas have already been hit heavily, and also Bashar al -Assad's Syrian regime has collapsed.
and right now in the network it seems that only Houthi rebels still has quite strong capabilities but it's still very limited in terms of confronting the United States or Israel.
And also Iran attempts to carry out nuclear deterrence but the tricky thing is that when it comes to nuclear deterrence you cannot actually use the nuclear weapons.
So right now I think both Iran and United States have the intention to negotiate with each other but they both hopes that the other side can make more concessions and show more sincerity.
So both sides are currently adopting the deterring tactics towards each other.
So if we put away the tensions between the United States and Iran, including Iran's regional allies over there, for example, the Houthis in Yemen etc., from an overall perspective, Dr. Zhang.
Do you think increased American military presence and capability in the Middle East will be something conducive for the region?
Well, from my observation, I think the increase of the United States military presence may have various impacts on the region.
But in general it doesn't help in resolving the Middle eastern conflict because in fact more of the United States weapons and military bases there often feel resentment from both the governments and local populations who view it as overreach or occupation, or a damage to their sovereignty.
And moreover, such kinds of actions might actually trigger an arms race in the region because local actors, they would all want to strengthen their military capacity due to their security, anxiety, which can lead to even more tensions in the region.
And I think there is another very important point, is that let's say if the United States military presence strengthens, then other extra -regional powers may also follow suit and increase their own military presence or arms sales to regional actors, And that could lead to escalating proxy wars in the region.
Thank you very much for joining us and for your analysis.
Dr. Jangchoo Choo, deputy director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Fudan University.
Coming up… The Danish Prime Minister is visiting Greenland for a three -day visit amid mounting pressure from Donald Trump to control the island.
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Danish Prime Minister Mait Fred Atkinson is paying a three day visit to Greenland for talks with the semi -autonomous region's incoming government.
His trip comes less than a week after Denmark and Greenland actually gave a very cool reception to a visit to the island by U .S vice president JT Vans.
Greenland's incoming leader Jens Frederick Nelson says he welcomes Danish prime minister's trip, noting that Denmark remains the closest partner for Greenland.
U .S President Donald Trump's interest in terms of controlling Greenland has prompted Denmark to do more to improve ties with the island.
Joining us now on the line is Dr. Kamal Markely Aliyev, associate professor with the School of Global Studies, University of Gothenburg Thank you very much for joining us today, Kamal.
First of all, in your observation, what could be on the agenda of prime minister Mait Fred J.
Richardson's trip this time?
I think that because Greenland's incoming leader Jens Fredrik Nielsen has welcomed the It seems like Greenland is open to the discussions of a different economic, social and cultural cooperation to ensure that Denmark remains Greenland's closest partner, if not more.
Because we tend to forget that Denmark was actually Greenland's sovereign, and if even if Greenland is an autonomous land, it still belongs to Denmark.
I think also there's going to be a lot of talk about how to boost the local economy of Greenland and its infrastructure and this may include the questions of how Denmark can support the efforts of Greenland to establish a sustainable resource development but also the questions of how to improve connectivity between Denmark and Greenland because there's you know a lot of distance between Denmark and Greenland, just geographically.
It's going to be questions of addressing challenges that are unique to the Arctic region and this is highlighted by the now pronounced strategic interest in the Arctic and primarily the sights of President Trump on Greenland.
So Denmark and Greenland are going to discuss how to best balance external pressures by also safeguarding Greenland's autonomy and security and this would also means counterbalancing US ambitions in the region and ensuring that Greenland's future decisions are going to remain in the Greenland autonomy within its parameters yes.
So as we know Greenland has been on a path to pursue independence from Denmark since at least 2009.
If the island really became independence one day how would you how do you think it's its relations with Denmark would look like under that kind of circumstance?
Well I must we are assuming that there is going to be you know non conflict type of independence and this is going to be a democratic process of Greenland using its right to self -determination.
In that scenario, of course, I think even despite the Greenland's formal independence, it would likely maintain a very close economic culture and security ties with Denmark.
The relationship can evolve more into the partnership based on mutual interests.
Very much similar to other cases that happen, former colonial and administrative territories, that then when separated, transformed the quite robust bilateral relationship.
I think Denmark's role in supporting Greenland's infrastructure, education, public services, everything, it's not just going to disappear and go away.
It's going to transform into bilateral arrangements and agreements, and then Greenland would continue to benefit from Denmark's diplomatic cloud, ensuring that its interests are safeguarded internationally even after independence.
We have to remember that it's a huge piece of land but populated by a very tiny population compared to its territory, right?
Some somewhere around 50 ,000 people.
So I think there is quite an agreement that this is, you know, negotiated independence would still be on the path to friendly relationship after its pronunciation rather than the severance between Denmark and Greenland.
I take your point. So how do you think the interests of U .S. President Donald Trump in terms of controlling Greenland might have an impact on this territory's pace and path towards seeking independence?
I think this is a very interesting question because on one side, Trump's ambitions in the Arctic have in many ways, you know, kind of spurred this part of Greenlanders that are more assertive in terms of their independence and want to happen sooner rather than later.
And of course, concerns of external interference, they can serve as a rallying point for those who favor full sovereignty and it already have done so politically.
But there is the other side of this, right, the other side of external pressure.
You know, this past Trump statements, they raised alarms and also underscored Greenland's kind of strategic importance.
And that means that the Greenland may opt for a more cautious approach. and we're seeing this kind of science in the upcoming talks with Denmark, right?
And pursuing greater autonomy but while maintaining strong ties with Denmark as its sovereign protector to kind of counterbalance United States and other powers that might be seeking an edge in the Arctic race further so it might produce the opposite effect of what the United States is actually expecting, and, you know, this kind of create a situation where Greenland is going to be more cautious with independence in the long term.
Hmm. Actually, during his visit to a US military base in northern part of Greenland last week, last Friday, I guess, J .D.
Vins accused the Denmark of not doing a good job in terms of keeping this island safe, suggesting that the United States would do a better job in this regard, how would you look at his comments here?
And we understand Greenland's incoming leader says Greenland wishes to establish a kind of respectful relationship with the United States.
So do you think a respectful relationship is on the mind of the Trump administration?
Well, it has to be taken into the context, this politically charged rhetoric of J Thevens.
They appear to be undermining the Danish influence and boosting the U .S. to extend strategic narrative, but they also play into broader partisan debates that the U .S. has internally and you know, this kind of political posturing more than an objective assessment of Greenland security needs, right.
Greenland's incoming leader has clearly expressed a desire to have a respectful and balanced relationship with the United States.
So that suggests that, while, you know, the Trump administration is going to be pursuing the aggressive stance like this and especially in terms of statements, the current future U .S. policy is likely to focus more on the partnership and support, especially given, you know, this kind of shifting dynamics in the Arctic.
They also don't want to scare the Greenlanders away completely.
And although the U .S. has significant military capabilities, its ability to unilaterally dictate Greenland security arrangements is very limited, because there is also Denmark in the picture.
And the Greenland strategic goals are not really yet aligned with, completely with the United States.
So the posturing is one thing.
The reality in the ground is very different.
And I think overall, while, you know, J .D.
Vance's remarks are designed to highlight the US capability, they are unlikely to translate into a full -scale shift away from Danish stewardship over with Greenland security at least not in any time soon.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Dr. Kamal Makili Aliev joining us from University of Gothenburg in Sweden.
Coming up, we're gonna explore what's behind the sky rocketing rice prices in Japan.
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Japan has adopted new emergency measures to tackle its rice shortage problem, under a law put in place on Tuesday, the Japanese government will be able to ask farmers for plans to increase production of key foods like rice if domestic supply shrinks and prices drop.
The law is aiming to stabilize food availability amidst rising domestic inflation and climate change, ensuring a more resilient supply of key crops.
In Japan, food prices are continuing to rise.
The cost of rice, for example, skyrocketed by over 80 % in February this year from a year earlier, the steepest decline since the year 1971.
So joining us now in the studio is my colleague Ge Anna.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Thanks for having me.
So, in your observation, Ina, what are some of the key factors driving this increase in terms of the rice prices that we see in Japan?
According to research, the rising in rice cost in Japan is due to a combination of factors, but extreme weather and the longstanding reduction policy on rice production have been the major contributors.
We know that Japan has been hit by frequent typhoons and heavy rain.
This natural disasters and record summer hit back in 2023 have damaged the harvest, causing a drop in supply.
On top of that, rumors about earthquakes recently also led to panic buying, making the situation even worse.
But to experts, these are not the main reasons.
They believe that Japan's reduction policy is the root of the problem.
The policy is that the government is paying farmers to limit how much they grow.
This decade -old policy has been in place for about more than half a century, costing billions of dollars a year in public spending.
It meant to stabilize prices but actually led to less rice being grown and making it harder to respond to changes in demand today.
And this has played a big part in driving prices up.
Farmers are protesting with the latest round that happened last Sunday, saying that the policy is not working and if these continue, their farms will disappear eventually.
Well, so government's providing subsidies, to, uh, to limit the farmers production.
Well, that's the first time I have heard about situations like this.
It's a very rare case for sure.
So when we talk about a daily life over there in Japan, how do you think this hike in, in terms of the rice prices have impacted average Japanese households and some of the relevant industries?
You know, like in the United States, the affordability of eggs has prompted a national discussion recently, right?
Highlights anxieties about the economy and the government's role in addressing such a problem.
In Japan, there is an equivalent that is the rise.
In March, core consumer inflation in Tokyo accelerated, primarily driven by rising food cost which with the rise prices increasing by over 80 % year on year, the highest since 1971, as you correctly pointed out in your introduction piece, the situation becomes so dire that the government had to tap its emergency rise reserves and roll out new laws.
And as to your question, the sharp surge in price price prices has strained household budgets and leading consumers to seek alternatives or reduce rice consumption.
Some have turned to home gardening to offset costs and to relative industries such as sushi restaurants and other food businesses reliant on rice.
Rising costs are creating operational challenges.
For example, the increase in rice prices as ingredient costs.
And if sushi prices are not adjusted, profit margin shrinks if increasing prices then that could lead to losing customers so that's the dilemma they are facing today and many sushi shops are responding by adjusting their menu reducing portion sizes or seeking cheaper rice suppliers but these changes might affect the quality and taste of their products and potentially causing a ripple effect across the entire dining industry in Japan and and smaller sushi shops are already facing financial strains.
There are also the forefront, you know, getting targeted by the rise of the food cost. At the same time, another issue is steering public reaction recently, is that Japan has just passed its 2025 fiscal budget, which sets record high in total.
What's sparking debate is the defense budget, which has surged to a new record about 8 .7 trillion yen over $60 billion US dollars, breaking last year's record. But meanwhile, social security and education budgets are showing negative growth in the planning.
This large scale military expansion, seen as undermining peace and squeezing budgets for people's livelihoods is making citizens very angry.
In a time of high inflation, I think the Japanese people clearly need relief, not more weapons.
That's for sure. So, this new law, it is trying to address food supply shortages, it has already taken effect.
How does this law work in terms of tackling the problems we're talking about here?
Under this new law, twelve agricultural products, including rice, soybeans, wheat, eggs, beef and pork, along with seven processed goods like flour, sugar, vegetable oil, and dairy products are classified as designated foods.
Essential supplies like fertilizers and animal feed are also included.
If a major natural disaster or other disruptions signal potential shortages in the country, the Prime Minister will decide whether to establish a response agency.
If supply drops by at least 20 % from the average level, or if prices spike, the government can require farmers and food -related businesses to submit plans to increase production, boost imports or expand market supply, and non -compliance can also result in fines of up to 200 ,000 yen, about $1 ,300 USD.
In addition, if the supply of these goods becomes critically low, farmers may be required to switch to alternative crops such as taro with government's oversight on food distribution.
But it's also stated that if imports can sufficiently make up for domestic shortfalls, the government will not enforce production increases on farmers.
So, we understand the Japanese Government has actually implemented measures like releasing the reserve rice, right?
So, what do you make of the advantages as well as the potential limitations of these measures?
How do think they might impact the long -term stability of the rice market?
This law clearly aimed at addressing food supply shortages.
It definitely has some advantages.
For example, it clearly sets out the goal of increasing production of key crops like rice, which can help elevate supply shortages in the long run by using legal measures to boost agricultural output.
It can encourage more resources to be allocated to rice farming, but there are limitations.
As you pointed out, the law primarily asks farmers to submit plans and there would be a delay in implementation.
Additionally, practical issues like limited land and labor shortages may hinder efforts to meet production goals and making it difficult to achieve short -term results.
Thank you very much for joining us.
That was my colleague Ge Anh Ho.
That's all the time for this edition of World Today.
To listen to this episode again or to catch up on our previous episodes, you can download our podcast by searching World Today.
I am Ding Hon in Beijing, thank you so much for listening, bye for now.
