Hello and welcome to World Today.
I am Dingheng in Beijing.
Coming up, US and China agreed to drastically rollback tariffs and trade breakthrough.
China has reported bumper exports for the month of April.
Turkey has said it is ready to host the Ukraine -Russia peace talks in the city of Istanbul.
And Philippines votes in midterm elections amid Marco's Duterte political showdown.
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China and the United States have announced tariff modification measures to ease their trade tensions.
The decision followed a two -day, high -level meeting on economic and trade issues in Geneva.
A joint statement is emphasizing the need for a sustainable, long -term, and mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship.
The discussion was led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lingfeng and US Treasurer Scott Benson.
The Chinese Vice Premier has also met with World Trade Organization Director -General Angote Okonjo -Iweala in the city of Geneva as well, reaffirming about China's commitment to multilateralism and free trade.
So, for more joining us now, on the line is Professor Chui -Cheng from Mingsu University of China.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Thank you. So, Professor, basically, President Donald Trump's 20 % federal related tax levies on China will stay.
However, in the meantime, each side of China and the United States has agreed to lower the so -called reciprocal tariffs on the other by 115 percentage points for 90 days This effectively means that the U .S. will Temporarily lower its its overall tariffs on Chinese goods from From 145 % down to 30 % that's pretty dramatic while Chinese side will cut its levies on on parts of the American imports from 125 % to 10%.
So first of all, what do you make of this very specific result from this meeting in Geneva?
Well, I think the Geneva meeting is actually very much welcomed by all of us.
And actually I, myself, are among the preparation teams for this meeting.
So I know more details about the meetings and what's become in the next 90 days.
But basically I think this is actually very, very good one.
I think through this talk, the whole tension has been eased among global trade, not only between China and America.
I mean, the whole global trade tension has been eased and everybody has achieved the common sins and you know, this common sins can be amplified to, you know, more elsewhere and you know, tariff has been lowered and, you know, the supply chain has been stabilized to confidence for the investment and the market expectation and also confidence for the enterprises business and the consumers are all stabilized and boosted.
Take a look at the both side stock market today.
Both China and America has welcoming a full arranged surge in a stock price as it shows that everybody loved this idea.
And also I think more than that, it shows that both sides are hiding something behind the table.
That is they don't want to have a fight at the bottom of the heart.
They don't want to have actually have the coupling.
This is just a show.
It's a trial and you know, just see how long can we last. And everybody sees that Chinese economy is more resilient than lots of people have been expected.
And also in America you'll be seeing that the harbor has been emptied and the supermarket shelf has been emptied and also the drug prices and the grocery prices have been surging up more than 20 % or 30%.
Some special products have even been doubled the prices.
And so, I don't think American people really want this deal in the exchange for the tariff.
So, this decoupling actually has been a fluff and now has been ended, at least for now.
And also, I think more than that, both sides have been, you know, tear down the war.
No communication, the radio silence period of time has been going up.
And we have established the official communication mechanism.
And actually it's not only for the tariff, it's for a lot of the economic...wide range economic issues.
So I think this is very, very good to avoid further escalation of tensions.
But also, I think we still have uncertainties like Fentanyl, you know, like after 90 days, what's going to happen and also about rare earths and about how it's going to happen after the tariff rules and also about some specific entry rules like, you know, IPRs like rare earths, like finance, technology.
So I think we still have lots of things to look into in the 90 days.
Yeah so the two sides also agree to establish a mechanism to continue discussions in the future.
What do you think future discussions will touch upon?
Well I think the future we're gonna talk about lots of issues like we just talked about after 90 days and what's gonna happen and personally we know that from American team while Mr. of a recent and he's you know the authorities are talking about the rebalance of chinese -american economy uh actually they have achieved lots of a common you know understanding was uh you know prime minister holly fan and they understand well it's very good news from mr besson too that they understand america want to make america great again but first they need to make china great again what is that because they find
out if they want to introduce back the manufacturing capacity into america they will find out most of the The capacity needs to be helped by China.
For example, if you need infrastructure, if you need a mechanic, then need the engineers.
And then you need China.
So China is actually the most reliable and powerful friends for America to be great again.
And vice versa, I think China also needs America in operating its technology and its consumption.
So I think this partnership is actually a little beneficial for everyone.
And I'm very glad that during this meeting, Mr. Beeson, and also China's delegation will understand that.
And also, I think the second thing that they're going to talk about in the future is, about what I mentioned, specific regions like the Sentinel, like IPR, like technology sanctions.
This is not covered during this meeting about, uh, about semiconductors, about the chips and et cetera, and also how they can rebalance, uh, you know, both sides of the economy, because America wants, you know, uh, to reduce debt and have manufacturing then job back.
China wants to upgrade its consumption.
and, you know, to be more domestic consumption reliant.
So I think they will have a lot of things to help each other and to talk to each other in the future 90 days.
So by the way, what do you think this meeting in Geneva tells us about the Donald Trump administration's actual mindset with regard to economic decoupling versus rebalancing of trade?
Well, number one, it showed that the Trump administration, especially Mr. Trump, is very shrewd man, but he is a shrewd businessman.
So I think in his understanding the business benefit, you know, the most, you know, direct benefit economically is what he's seeking, so he just wants to take that advantage but he does not actually want to sabotage the political relations and also the confidence, you know, between those two countries as well as for the stability of the whole world.
So I think that's a reason why he very shrewdly and very widely understand what's going on because of the domestic crisis going on.
Trump is losing. Economic pressure is coming.
And also people don't like these things because we've been seeing that many Democrats, I'm sorry not only Democrats but also Republican voters are voting against Trump right now.
His poll has been the historic low after 100 days.
So here's the problem for him, he understands that.
And also about political reasons, the Democrats fight like bulldog.
So he's under lots of political pressures, so he don't want to waste energy on these fronts of, you know, battle.
That's the reason why he wants to get out of the trouble with the trade and focus on domestic issues.
And also what we understand is that he has a lot of trouble trying to rebalance American economy because American economy's imbalance is not caused by China, it's being caused by America and its domestic structure.
China is just an alibi.
So he will have to on one hand to decouple, so -called decouple, with China or care for with China, but also on the other hand he needs China to overcome lots of lots of pathologies within America when he tried to you know put on some surgery on this yield body, so that's a problem and all the dilemma he's been struggling in between.
So I think this is not gonna be easy and he is having another two years ahead of him or one -half a year.
It's not going to be very easy for him.
The final question before we let you go, and we still have like 90 seconds.
How do you think China is going to shift its foreign trade in the future, regardless of what kind of trade deals it might be able to reach with the Trump administration?
Well I think number one is domestic resilience and the gross power.
Look, China is the second largest economy in the whole world and also by PVP, it's probably the largest economy in the whole world, and this time when CD4 is coming, China just stands still and faces all the pressures and not kneeling down.
Because you see China stock market is stable, Chinese people are stable, and you know, whole numbers in China stable.
So it shows that that self -resilience is very important.
Secondly is to diversify your supply chain and the market, that's what China is doing right now, Belt and Road partners, RCEP partners.
And these diversification has been showing on the third of the Q1 trade surplus.
That's showing that China can actually do it without so much of the reliance on American market.
And also thirdly, I think in the future, We're going to have to, you know, strengthen the South -South nations, you know, the role and, you know, role in the whole globalization and trade to, you know, make them the important partners and also based on their power and their support to redefine global trade systems and a multilateral, you know, spirit in many platforms like WTO, like the CPTPP and also APEC and also Thanks Country organization, etc. Thank you very much for joining us, Professor Qu Jiang, from Mindo University of China.
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Latin American and Caribbean countries are increasingly looking to cooperation with China as a way to reduce the influence of long -standing U .S. doctrines, especially as Washington's sweeping tariff wars reshape global trade dynamics.
Earl Bosque, former press secretary to the prime minister of Saint Lucia and a president of Saint Lucia China Friendship Association, spoke ahead of an upcoming ministerial meeting between China and the community of Latin American and Caribbean states.
Bosque sees China's three global initiatives as offering the region an alternative path, Wang granted a mutual benefit, respect for national sovereignty, and South -South cooperation.
There is also room for even closer ties in terms of climate resilience, energy innovation, and cultural exchange.
Here's more from my colleague, Ge An -ah's conversation with him.
Mr. Bosque, you have been following the Caribbean's foreign policy shifts for years and you've had a front row seat to major changes in international relations.
So when you think back on your experiences with China, are there any particular moments or encounters that really stayed with you?
Yes, there are many.
The time will not allow me to complete, but my lasting ones I can recall immediately are my several visits to the Forbidden City.
The only ones that I took a maglev train from Beijing to Shanghai.
Visiting Hong Kong for one day where I was able to observe there's no space for anything to be built anywhere.
The way they're burned in Shanghai, that region helped reshape the city over time.
My favorite province in China, I would admit, is Xiamen in the Fujian province from the simple standpoint that it's the most tropical and Caribbean part of China, in my experience, with sea and sand, beaches, hills and valleys, trees and flowers like every Caribbean nation and from where we can also see the Taiwan region of China.
Like every other Caribbean region, I said, it has the features that we grew up with and we also, in my case, can recall several visits to Sichuan, which is China's spice capital where one can recall seeing spices, so like little colorful mountains on roadsides.
My family memory was a conference cruise hosted by the Chinese People's Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries and that took place over three days on the Yangtze River with visits to the Three Gorges Dang.
I spent a day in Chongqing, a city of hills and mountains.
My regrets include not having visited a major media house, especially CGTN's out of the box headquarters.
I do think it's back to you to have such rich experiences in china so building on that personal perspective uh let's look at the bigger picture here you are speaking from a quite unique position coming from sunlusha a country that has yet to establish diplomatic relations with china how would you describe china's approach to working with latin american and caribbean countries from that vantage point and what sets him apart from the way other major powers engage with the region well certainly Actually, I think that China has been going on a good track in its ties with Latin America and the Caribbean.
I can see that what is taking place is implementation, even in advance, of the principles around President Xi Jinping's Global Cooperation and Security Initiatives launched in March 2023, if I recall properly.
So, we are seeing the Global Cooperation Initiative taking place and the Global Security Initiative, while it has not been put in place as designed, the current state of international diplomacy losing out to militarism is one that we have to also take into consideration.
But certainly building global development cooperation with more investment in new areas in this region, including, for example, agro and energy industries, health and education, science and technology, environmental sustenance, and climate change adaptation.
In terms of other powers, what we are seeing is that other powers seek to impose their political will on us, their neighbors in Latin America and the Caribbean as part of old doctrines, 200 year old doctrines.
Others also, you seek to shape the ties according to geopolitical considerations.
Other powers seek to dictate to independent states in the Caribbean, particularly and including the 14 Caribbean community CARICOM member states, the majority of which are small islands, dictate to them what their foreign affairs should be using sanctions to punish those who seek to delink from the world bodies they control like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
Other powers are consolidating the control of the region's energy resources in Guyana and Venezuela, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and Grenada.
For example, BP and Shell are fighting over who's going to control the resources in Trinidad and Tobago.
ExxonMobil and Hess are in Guyana.
Chevron is in Venezuela.
Total Energy, the French company that has exploited Africa is in Suriname.
But Washington opposed a Russian company's involvement in Trinidad and Tobago through sanctions, while warning Caribbean nations to be careful about building ties with China and raising concerns about African countries or companies that indicate interest in helping the Caribbean explore its energy resources.
So, I think the bottom line is that what we have emerging and continuing to grow in the region is evolving cooperation model in which China cooperation has evolved well in both Latin America and the Caribbean regions, consistent with the principles of mutual benefit between developing nations, not top -down, but across and between nations, also reflecting principles of the Global Cooperation Initiative along the modern Silk Roads to different parts of the region through the Brereton Road Initiative.
So I see continuity and evolution of a global cooperation model in the relationship between Latin America and the Caribbean and China.
So now, looking ahead to current development, the fourth China and Community of Latin America in the Caribbean States, Forum is seen by many as a fresh opportunity to deepen ties, especially at a time when Washington's sweeping tariff war are reshaping global trade dynamics.
So what are your hopes or expectations coming out of this forum and from your perspective, which issues are most important to Caribbean countries right now?
Well, I have high expectations.
Caribbean nations are represented, including Saint Lucia, which has formal ties with the Taiwan region of China, but certainly is represented by our Ambassador to Syilat, who arrived in Beijing for that meeting.
That summit, I have high expectations for it from the standpoint that leaders, I expect, will find common ground to address issues of mutual concern, especially the consequences of the first 100 days of the Trump administration.
and among the most pressing issues I think I can point to a couple or three.
One, the effects of the policies of the US administration on Latin America and the Caribbean today and tomorrow in the context of the new global trade war that is unfolding, if not stopped in time.
Secondly, finding common grounds to advance cooperation in keeping with new changes in global trade and cooperation and minimizing international aid.
For example, the US has closed down US aid, a $40 billion budget institution that sent aid around the world.
That has been closed down.
The budget has been moved to the United States State Department.
We also see European countries reducing their foreign aid to developing countries in order to increase their military spending, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine.
The third thing I would say, we need to look at strengthening international cooperation with China and between the states that have ties with Beijing on projects of mutual regional interest like fighting climate change, increasing cooperation between small island developing states, emergency disaster assistance mechanisms, working together to trace historical ties between China and the Latin America and Caribbean region.
And this latter one is certainly an integral part of the global cooperation initiative, which is aimed at transcending the possibilities where nations might consider themselves better off or even exceptional.
Two other ideas I would put on expect would be that they would identify new areas of investment, particularly in manufacturing of primary and indigenous raw materials which are currently being exported and re -imported to the Caribbean and Latin America as refined products.
We can do that between Latin America and the Caribbean rather than our region having to import from Europe and North America.
We could also finally look at the China Friendship Associations in select member states and the Federation representing Latin American Caribbean nations with friendship associations, they must all work together with this Chinese People Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries, in my view, to better highlight and promote people -to -people friendship and cooperation.
Building on that, as you earlier mentioned, with the global economy becoming more uncertain, we are hearing a lot about how China and Latin American and Caribbean states are finding new ways to complement each other, especially in trade and investment.
So do you see this as a new kind of South -South cooperation taking shape?
Yes, certainly, I think like I said earlier what is unveiling, continuing to widen and develop and deepen is a new model for South -South cooperation.
Also the Global Cooperation Initiative taking shape.
That cooperation initiative is to not only bring people closer in friendship, but also together in addressing mutual problems, especially, for example, the problems of small island states in the Caribbean.
I can give you a practical example involving St. Lucia, which does not have ties as yet, but the Yantai City Small Island Zero Carbon Initiative, which was launched last year in Azerbaijan, and has the support of the government in Beijing, sent a delegation to the entire Caribbean, spending one day meeting different forces, governments, non -governments, agencies in the Caribbean, where they were able to share the experiences of Yantai City and the Changdao Islands.
Those were shared with the Caribbean last month and all of that opens the way for cooperation along new areas.
For example, desalination.
We saw the possibility exists in Yantai for desalinating seawater at a rate of being able to save 700 out of every 1000 gallons and to be able to transform the other 300 into salt and fertilizer.
So you have a 100 % utilization of the seawater that surrounds islands not only in the Caribbean but around the world, and Yantai City has those solutions which they have now shared with every Caribbean country.
We also would like to see the Chinese National Overseas Oil Corporation, which is operating in Guyana, will begin to look at the possibilities of helping, you know, other Caribbean islands to be able to search for oil and gas and other subterranean minerals, because this is already happening with the European and American companies fighting each other in order to be able to control.
So we need also to develop health systems and services to enhance global development cooperation in the area of international health.
These are some of my expectations.
That was Earl Bousquet, president of the St. Lucia China Friendship Association talking with my colleague Gue Anan.
Coming up, China has reported bumper April exports.
You are listening to World Today.
I'm Ding He in Beijing.
We will be back after a short break.
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I'm Ding Hen in Beijing.
Official Data shows China's Foreign Trade rose by 5 .6 % in April over a year ago.
China's exports rose by 9 .3 % while imports increased 0 .8%.
In the first four months, China's total goods imports and exports expanded by 2 .4%.
The strong performance is driven by deepening regional trade ties.
For example, ASEAN remains as China's biggest trading partner, accounting for 16 .8 % of total foreign trade value from January to April.
And China's trade with the country's third largest partner, the United States contracted in the first four months, while trade with the European Union increased by 1 .1%.
For more, my colleague Zhao Yang spoke with Dr. Zhong Mi from the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation.
So Dr. Zhong Mi, China's foreign trade has shown remarkable resilience against the U .S. tariffs and we've seen the exports in April surge by 9 .3 % in UN -denominated terms. And so why did this happen?
How do you explain the resilience of China's exports?
Well, as you mentioned, that U .S. tariff has put a lot of uncertainty in the global trade.
So, in my understanding, maybe there are three factors that have very important impacts on the China's export and input.
The first is that China's manufacturing spaces are still very strong, so we can provide so many different kinds of products to the world to meet their demand.
I think that even with the tariff, I don't think there are a lot of impact on China's abilities to produce those products.
and second I think that is also coming from the you know the market the demand well as for the demand I think the world is trying to trying to face the challenges from United States so they put tariffs on every almost every countries and regions in the world so they have to worry about how can they have resilient supply of those products and China is definitely one of the very best choices.
And third one I think is also because that China and other countries are doing quite well on the you know enforcement of our agreement commitments on the trade facilitation and improve the connections among the different regions.
And all of these three factors are very important pillars for China to have a stable and resilient import and export in the first four months of this year.
And in the first four months of this year ASEAN remains as China's top trading partner, with their trade value growing 9 .2 % year on year.
So what role do you think ASEAN plays in China's foreign trade?
Well, as for... I think there's maybe from two aspects.
The first one is that ASEAN countries are one of the China's main trading partners.
I mean, that is not only to trying to do something to do with other countries, except for ourselves.
So, in the end of China, we have a better integration in the previous several decades and we are improving the integration of the market connections and abilities for the supply chain cross -bargerly.
So, in this regard, I think that the recovery of the economy in this region has helped the trade to strengthen even in such kind of circumstances.
and the second aspect is coming from an integral part, I think that China and ASEAN are providing the world with so many different kind of manufacturing products and that is also helpful for enhance the world's abilities to face against the uncertainties.
So China and other countries where complementary partners and I mean that it is helpful for both of us to try to make better use of the human resources and also the manufacturing abilities to address the uncertainty and some of these higher tariffs imposed by United States.
And the EU was the second -largest partner as the trade value grew 1 .1 percent, so what factors do you think are contributing to this resilience in trade between China and EU?
Well EU is still a very big one but compared with other parts of the world, they are facing too many difficulties and challenges.
First of all, they are facing a lot of pressure from US.
They are trying to take their enterprises out from EU to go to United States.
And second, I think they are facing many challenges from the energy supply.
So, their implementation will be one of the priorities for them to resolve while China and the EU will have so many complementary advantages by both sides, So a lot of Chinese enterprises are helping the EU to address their supply chain issues and the pressure on the prices.
So EU is really our important partner of China, while on the other hand, I will see that China also doing a lot of business with EU, like from France, we imported so many agricultural products from France.
and and that is helpful for us to strengthen the cooperation between us.
And people talk about China's trade with belt and road countries, with ASEAN, EU, with Middle East and Latin America, so how practical is it for China to diversify its trading destinations from the United States to other partners?
Well, I think that the older world is trying to catch up with, you know, the leading partners in the world.
I think the regions you have mentioned and the corporations really care about what they really want, not just from China's attitudes.
I think that corporations have a very good and a solid basis for both of us to try to improve the interconnectivity under the Belt and Road regions, and also a lot of more diversified and different requirements by the different parts of the world.
For example, China's export manufacturing hub in Yiwu saw a search, a 109 % surge in exports of Christmas goods in the first quarter, and despite the U .S. tariffs and trade stress many EU traders report minimum disruption to their businesses.
So why has the impact on this export hub been so limited, do you think?
As you mentioned, the example of the Christmas, I would see that the people from the European, from the Western countries, they have put several months earlier than before than the previous years, to book the products from Yiwu.
I think that is because that Yiwu is a very important trade hub for the small commodities and they are providing with different and more diversified products with a higher quality and a lower price.
So I would say that is the advantages of them.
So generally speaking I don't think that the world economy is slowing down because of the tariffs, well the demand is still there, so the EU is providing a better product and trying to make the people feel more comfortable about the uncertainty, so this is their advantages and that is also coming from their very sensitive ways of addressing the demands of the market, they are looking at what's the market really wants and they are providing some products accordingly.
So this is kind of two ways reaction between EU providers and the world market.
I believe that is also the way why they have a very good performance, even under such a kind of uncertainties.
And private enterprises accounted for nearly 57 % of China's total trade.
So how do you describe the role of private sector in China's foreign trade, and what do you think about the adaptability of China's private exporters?
Well, they are really important for China's foreign trade because they are providing so many possibilities.
I think that most of the private sectors are really working hard. They are trying to make the better use of the information and improve their competitiveness in much more diversified directions.
Well, for this kind of pressures, sector, I would say that the enterprises, especially from the private sector, they have suffered a lot by the uncertainties.
But from another angle, I would say that they are also changing very quickly.
So in the previous decades, we have seen that private sectors are improving and updating their businesses according to the change of the outer environment from China.
and they are trying to grasp the best choices and trying to work hard on the even very slim profits products.
So the private sector in China in the recent years, we are seeing the percentage of those trades from them has increased continuously.
It means that they feel more confident about the abilities to grasp the opportunities for the global trade and they are working hard on that.
So the private sector will also be one of our advantages to solve the problems of the employment, taxes, tariffs and also the fiscal income of the Chinese government and they are really helping to improve the resilience of the global supply chain and that is what the world, I mean the trading partners really need from us so we encourage those enterprises to be more actively doing some business according to their advantages and also addressing the demand of the trading partners and trying to do more social responsibilities to help the communities in other countries.
Dr. Zhang Mi from the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation talking to Zhao Yang.
Coming up, Turkey says it is ready to host a Russia Ukraine peace talks in the city of Istanbul.
This is World Today, we'll be back.
You are listening to World Today, I am Ding Hei Ling Beijing Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan says Ankara is ready to host peace talks between Russia and Ukraine again.
Erdogan delivered a message in phone calls with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and French counterpart Immanuel Macron on Sunday.
Putin on Sunday proposed direct talks with Ukraine aimed at ending the war.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has also said that he will be waiting to meet with Putin for talks in Turkey.
Over the weekend, major European powers demanded that Russia agree to an unconditional 30 -day ceasefire or face fresh new sanctions.
So, joining us now underlying is Dr. Tim Anderson, Director of the Center for Counter -Hendrimonic Studies, a Sydney -based think tank.
Thank you very much for joining us, Dr. Tim Anderson.
First of all, why do you think Russia and Ukraine look to hold peace talks at this point?
I think a fair amount of the incentive is coming from the withdrawal of Washington from the arming of Ukraine against Russia, basically the fact that Donald Trump has split from his European counterparts and is clearly pushing for some sort of end to the war, has provided an incentive for Kiev to take part in the talks again.
So, why do you think it is Terkiet that is currently offering to hold peace talks?
Well, it was Turkey that held them a little over three years ago in April 2022, and there was a provisional agreement back at that time.
But you may recall that it seems that Boris Johnson from the UK and President Biden from the US instructed Zelensky to abandon those talks and to keep fighting, and assured him that he would win and assured him of virtually unlimited backing basically.
So, Turkey, being a member of NATO, has an important strategic role there and also it borders the Black Sea.
So, it's close and it's embedded with the NATO states that are engaged in supporting Ukraine.
So, I think it's played an important role in the past and Mr Erdoğan is trying to do the same thing again now.
So, by the way, what is your understanding of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky's position that he will be ready for talks with the Russian side, but only after Moscow agreed to a thirty -day ceasefire?
I think there's some sort of positioning going on where Zelensky is trying to suggest that he's got some sort of control of matters here.
In fact, he's losing badly on the battlefield.
The Ukrainian losses have been terrible in recent months and he's trying to assert a position that really distinguishes himself from simply giving in to what he sees is Russian demands.
On the other hand Russia is of course very concerned not to lose the ground that they've gained with sacrifices over the last three years.
So this question about whether the talks will happen during a ceasefire or before a ceasefire or whether it was a three -day unilateral ceasefire by Russia during the victory celebrations of the victory over fascism in Moscow or this 30 -day ceasefire, which Styljski has talked about his semantics, but it's really a matter of positioning, I think.
So what would a 30 -day ceasefire, if it materializes, mean to Russia and Ukraine respectively?
I mean, the Russians, for their part, are concerned that previous cease fires have been abused by Kiev basically, and that in particular if you go back as far as 2015, the Minsk 2 agreements were really seen as an opportunity to try and build up Ukraine's strength to carry out another offensive or to assail the Russians.
So they're concerned about the losing momentum, I suppose, on the battlefield.
Zelensky for his part as I said is probably trying to position himself to suggest that he's making some ground or some initiatives there.
He has some cards to play there.
I think Donald Trump told him a few months ago that he doesn't have too many cards to play there because really Kiev is being supported by NATO.
It's really become a proxy war of NATO against Russia and with Trump trying to end this on some sort of terms that looks good for Trump and his own image, it's a difficult situation that the Ukrainians are in.
So there's some sort of positioning going on, but I think the fact that both sides are willing to talk is a good sign.
That's definitely a good sign, of course.
In the meantime, we noticed senior Kremlin aide, Mr. Yuri Yushchenko, telling media that somehow the talks must take into account both an abandoned 2022 draft peace deal and the current situation on the ground.
What do you make of the underlying message here?
Well, the message from Russia is that we already had many of these things ironed out, the fact that they didn't want Ukraine to be a part of NATO, and with NATO weapons positioned on their borders and so on, they wanted relief for the Russian population in the southeast of what used to be Ukraine there.
So a lot of those things have been gone over, and the Russians will be probably saying, I told you so in some part of these talks.
The other part of it, the situation on the ground, is that Russia has basically liberated from their point of view, most of the Russian speaking parts of the former Southeast Ukraine.
So they really are not going to, they're not very keen to unilaterally give up ground that they've paid in lives to gain.
So that's the message, really, I think that the Russians are saying the longer this goes on the more ground you will lose, basically because we are determined to defend our boundaries and the Russian people that used to the basis of realities here and I think the Trump administration has repeated some of those phrases really certainly in terms of freezing the front line effectively on the ground.
And also why do you think Russia's Foreign Ministry for example has openly suggested that there must be talks about the root causes of this Russian -Ukraine conflict before discussions regarding a ceasefire?
Well, the Russian position has been that they don't want a temporary ceasefire, because they are feel burned by that in the past with the Minsk accords in 2015 and with the some other cease -fires they've had in more recent times, which they say Kiev has been abusing trying to seize back some ground.
Remember Kiev did that incursion into Kursk, into a part of Western Russia to try and hold on to some Russian territory, to have a bargaining chip at the table, they lost that now, they were driven out of Kursk.
So they're missing that bargaining chip that they have there.
So the Russians for their part are saying, look, we don't want to ceasefire when there's no real understanding about the fundamental issues.
We want a permanent ceasefire, that's what the Russians have been saying.
Hmm so if somehow if peace talks can really take place in trachea in the in the near future let's put it this way how much optimism should there be in our in terms of our expectation of the outcome of the talks.
I mean there has to be some optimism because we've seen the Trump administration playing placing a great importance on resolving this conflict in one way the other, but in a way that looks like Trump is contributing to some sort of successful outcome rather than simply retreating as his predecessor did in Afghanistan.
So, the problem is that some of the European states are committing large amounts of money and weapons to Ukraine to keep on going and pretending, as for example Miss von der Leyen does that without any real evidence of it to say that Ukraine can keep fighting and is going to win and there's no evidence of that whatsoever.
No realist analysts of the situation suggest that Ukraine is making any ground in recent months.
But there must be some optimism because Zelensky must understand that a lot of his support is evaporating.
And if he doesn't make a deal soon there's not going to be much left of certainly Eastern Ukraine.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Dr. Tim Anderson, Director of the Center for Counterhegemonic Studies.
Coming up Philippines vote in midterm elections amid Marco Jr. Dotelt political showdown.
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Stay tuned. You are back with World Today.
I am Dingheng in Beijing.
In the Philippines, voting was held on Monday for the country's midterm elections.
More than 18 ,000 positions of mayors, governors, lower -house lawmakers, and senators were up for grabs.
President Ferdinand Machel Jr. was not on the ballot.
However, his policy agenda, his legacy and influence over his succession in 2028 are at stake.
Both President Machel Jr. and Vice President Sarah Duterte have campaigned hard for their respective slates of candidates amidst their increasing and ongoing political rivalry.
So, Joining us now on the line is Dr. Zhong -ying, Chair Professor with the School of International Studies, Sichuan University.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Thank you for having me.
So, in many ways, Dr. Zhong, this election is seen as an informal referendum on the Marcos Junior administration.
How would you assess his administration's performance in domestic governance, especially on economy since he assumed office?
Well, it is true, I think that despite the fact that Marcos, Marcos Junior is not going to sort of a campaign, I mean, wrong for the election.
Yeah. By 2028, because the Constitution of the Philippines, I mean determines that it's just one term.
I think in general, it's going to be a sort of midterm election for him, for his presidency.
And we have seen that his popularity has been declining.
I mean, the latest sort of poll has put him from, I mean, 30 percent, something like that was sort of 15, sort of less from previous one.
And that is not necessarily, I mean, not only because of the economics, I mean, economics is doing also not well, pretty bad.
I mean, the rising costs of living, that is definitely, the missing of the economic growth targets, and of course, you can...
the external factors, the Trump administration's global tariff, the environment, external environment, point – but arguably, I mean, we're going to talk about it later.
I mean, the Philippines' relationship with the United States is being good, at least, right, on the surface.
So despite the fact that the so -called good relationship, Philippines has also been subjected to 15 – I don't know, 17 percent of the tariff.
But I think the challenge, his problem does not necessarily – oh, comes from the economic, which is very good, Very, very big.
This comes from the political side.
I mean, the political struggle, the political rivalry with his partner, the Vice -President Sarah Duterte and the former, I mean, President Rodrigo Duterte, which I think, I mean, his approval, or his administration put him in the International Criminal Court waiting for trial.
So in particular for this election or midterm elections, The president has actually touted his so called to defense of sovereignty and a campaign on his tough stance on this South China Sea dispute with China.
What is your take on this?
And here because we're talking about his foreign policy.
What kind of foreign policy do you think is in the best interests of the Philippines?
Well, the short answer to your question, what kind of foreign policy, I mean, he or the Philippines, Philippines should follow for the sake of best interest of the country.
I think the short answer is clear.
I mean, the Philippines has to do as its other ASEAN countries by not taking sides between the – I mean, China and the United States.
And by taking to account their national interest into consideration and also follow the – I mean, general policy of Asia.
But unfortunately, as – that is the exact reason, I mean, the question is asking why he was, I mean, pursuing such a different approach with – in terms of the foreign policy in general and with China and the United States.
This is primarily because of political consideration and which makes him, I mean Marcos Jr. in a way that he played a game or plays a script of the United States as a poem for U .S. v .w.
China. So, we have seen that during the campaign I think he and his party as being tried to provoke anti -China sort of narrative, leave, try to put his sort of rival, I mean the Vice President Sara Duterte, as a kind of pro -China.
That is exactly the reason.
In the hope that it would help him politically to offset the economic sort of bad performance and the poor governance of his administration.
Yeah, I take your point.
So more on this domestic rivalry political rivalry between the two sites that you mentioned because this election is exactly I mean Especially the the part surrounding the the race for the Senate is really seen as a key proxy battle between the president And a vice president.
I mean actually Michaels Jr. And the Duterte family began as a united front it once swapped the entire presidential election back in the year 2022.
So how would you look at this very fact that this once United Front has now become a bitter field between the two sides?
That's again a great question.
I think there are many speculations trying to explain, I mean the change or the kind of attitude or the position between the two partners, which represents the two political families or political claims. Obviously, I think President Marcos Jr. seems unhappy or uncomfortable with the rising popularity popularity of Sarah Duterte, or, I mean, that feels that the rising popularity of Duterte families is going to undermine his own agenda, which, again, a lot of people are speculating that he wanted to change the Constitution to stay one more, I mean, longer than one more sort of a presidency.
And that's why I think they put the election of the Senate at a great stake.
Because besides the ICC issues with the former President, I think Sarah has also had a problem of that impeachment.
So if the result of the Senate turned out to be unfavour with Sarah and that would put, I think, President Marcus in a better position politically to beat to get rid of his rival, Sarah Sochang.
Let's wait and see what's going to happen.
Thank you for joining us.
Rongming, chair professor at the School of International Studies, Sichuan University.
That's all the time for this edition of World Today.
I'm Ding mars, thank you so much for listening.
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