Daily news and analysis.
We keep you informed and inspired.
This is World Today.
Hello and welcome to World Today, I'm Ding Hen in Beijing.
Coming up, Xi Jinping calls for greater inclusion of women in governance.
China's new trade figures top forecasts against the backdrop of new trade tensions with the United States.
Over 20 world leaders meet for a Gaza peace summit in Egypt.
The IMF has warned of uncertainty being the new normal in the global economy.
To listen to this episode again or to catch up on our previous episodes.
You can download our podcast by searching World Today.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for greater participation of women in national and social governance, saying this would ensure that gender equality is truly internalized within society.
The Chinese leader made a remark at the opening ceremony of the Global Leaders' Meeting on Women in Beijing.
Xi Jinping said that China has led its 690 million women in marching together into a moderately prosperous society.
He has also announced that China will donate an additional US10 million to UN women over the next five years.
He said China will support 1000 livelihood projects for women and girls as the priority beneficiaries and invite 5000 women to China for exchange and training programs.
This year's meeting focuses on new and accelerated efforts for women's development.
So for more.
Joining us.
Now on the line is Han Hua, co-founder and secretary general of Beijing Club for International Dialogue.
So thank you very much for joining us today, Han Hua.
President Xi Jinping has put forward four proposals to speed up the process of women's development jointly fostering an enabling environment for women's growth and development.
Jointly cultivating powerful momentum for the high-quality development of women's cows.
Jointly developing governance frameworks to protect women's rights and interests.
And finally, jointly writing a new chapter in terms of promoting global cooperation on women.
So what is your main takeaway from these four proposals?
Thanks for having me.
I think what strikes me most is the emphasis on joint action, meaning it's not just about empowering women within one nation, but about building global partnerships that sustain progress.
It's in line with China's proposals of global initiatives on security, on development and on governance.
In general, President Xi's four proposals highlight a very comprehensive and forward-looking approach to advancing women's development both in China and globally.
But in particular, this joint action proposal in particular moves beyond the slogans to system building, from slogans to solutions, in my opinion, from just the dialogues to deliveries like to create supportive environments, to integrate women's empowerment into high quality development and to ensure that governance frameworks can safeguard these rights.
So they link the gender equality with global cooperation, recognizing that women's advancement is essential to peace, to innovation, to sustainable growth and to this global governance in the future.
So in summary, it's a call for shared responsibility, shared roles, shared benefits.
It's also a reminder that empowering women is not a side agenda at all, but it's at the core of the global development.
And it can be the foundation for a more equable and the modern world, the core of a shared future for mankind.
Okay, um 30 years ago, beijing hosted the fourth world conference on women, and now this global leaders meeting on women is being held in the city.
What do you make of china's achievements in protecting women's rights and interests and promoting gender equality over the last 30 years?
Well, let me share with you my personal experience.
30 years ago, i was a young journalist, fresh out of university, armed with more curiosity than experience.
But I was so lucky enough to cover the 1995 Beijing World Conference on Women.
I witnessed China's humility and eagerness to learn from the world the best practices, sharing observing other ideas about how to empower women, listening and sharing hopes for a better future for women.
At that time, I was also very lucky to interview the then Nigeria president, the women president, as well as the first lady of the United States, who delivered a speech.
So the whole China, as well as me, myself, as a rookie journalist, was like, we are humble.
We were very eager to learn.
But 30 years later, I think I see a very different China very confident, innovative and leading the conversations on gender equality from education to employment.
You know, China has the highest rate of the employment rate for women in the world.
And also from legislation to social participation.
China is in the leading role, or in the leading batch of the countries, in empowering women and advancing women's rights.
So Chinese women today actually enjoy unprecedented rights and opportunities.
Having said this, I think there is still a room to grow, but Chinese women are not only participants, as well as China itself, but also making decisions and propose innovations across all walks of life.
And this has certain impact globally.
So what moves me most is how deeply this progress has been made in the past 30 years, but it is also rooted in everyday lives.
Millions of women are balancing work, including myself, work, family, and community leadership.
So, but I would also want to add that the transformation didn't happen overnight and it just not happen over the 30 years, but it grew from consistent commitment since 1949, when New China was founded and when the enduring belief that women can hold up half the sky.
So today's achievements are both a fulfillment of that vision and a promise for the future.
What do you think remains to be done if China wants to further ensure gender equality in this country?
Like I said just now, China certainly has made a remarkable progress in advancing gender equality, but there is still room to grow, especially in translating the legislation, the laws and the policies into everyday practices.
First, I think more support is needed for women in leadership roles and the responsibilities And the decision-making roles, particularly in business, in technology, in people's Congress, in government agencies, where female representation still remains limited.
And the second, I think childcare and the flexible work policies should be strengthened to help women balance better between career development and the family support without penalty.
And also rural women, especially rural kids.
Girls deserve greater access to education, to financial support and nowadays, to digital tools, so that they can fully participate in China's modernization.
Now, according to the figures shared by President Xi Jinping in his address, over 600 million women and girls globally are still married in war and conflict today, and around 10 of women and girls are trapped in extreme poverty.
So how can the world address violence and discrimination against women from the root cause?
This is another highlight, my main take from President Xi's speech.
I think to address this violence and discrimination against women at the root, we must first tackle the inequality from the root, like the poverty, like the lack of education, the exclusion from decision-making.
When women have access to education, to better education, to the equal job opportunities, to justice, I think the violence itself loses its breeding ground.
And the governments at the same time, should strengthen the laws and other legislation and the regulations protecting women, while ensuring real enforcement, not just written commitments but, like I said, from slogan from written to solution, from dialogues to deliveries.
So, equally important, peace building and humanitarian efforts must put women at the center, recognizing them as the agents of stability, not victims.
Last but not least, I think the cultural transformation is also key.
Changing mindsets through education, through media, through more positive narratives, narrative shaping and through community engagement.
So that respect, not dominance. can define relationships between men and women.
Looking at China's action plan over the next five years to support the global cause for women, how much momentum do you expect China's action to generate?
And why does China's support for global cause for women matter?
I think the timing cannot be better because, you know, on October the 20th, we're going to have the fourth central committee meeting of the 20th plenary session of China's CPC.
So China's next five-year action plan is under hot discussion.
And I believe that it will inject a strong momentum into the global cause of women by linking policy commitment with concrete implementation.
So China's approach, combining development, education and the legal protection, shows that gender equality is not just a social issue, but a foundation for sustainable growth.
In other words, China is moving, is turning its slogans, turning its concept into very concrete actions to put women's course into its heart of the next five year plan, the next stage of development.
So its initiatives in poverty elevation, health care and digital empowerment have already lifted millions of women and families out of poverty, out of lack of access.
And it, china support matters because it brings scale experience, expertise and, the most important of all, like the past 30 years, it shows continuity.
So, with its global partnerships, from the Belt and Road framework to Global South cooperation, China can help ensure that women in the Global South alongside the Belt and Road can gain access to education, finance and technology, and this is very critical.
Thank you very much for joining us and your points well taken.
Han Hua, co-founder and secretary general of Beijing Club for International Dialogue.
Coming up.
China's new trade figures have topped forecasts, against the backdrop of new trade tensions with the United States.
You're listening to World Today.
We'll be back.
You are listening to World Today, I am Ding Hen in Beijing.
China saw strong trade growth in September.
New customs data shows that outbound shipments from China rose by 83 year-on-year last month, the fastest growth since March.
Imports in the meantime grew by 7.4%, their fastest pace since April last year.
In the first nine months, China's foreign trade in goods increased by 4%.
ASEAN remains China's biggest trading partner, accounting for over 16 of China's total foreign trade.
The new trade figures come a few days after US President Donald Trump unveiled additional levies of 100 on China's US-bound exports.
China's Commerce Ministry has described Washington's latest threat as a typical example of US double standards, adding that Beijing could introduce its own countermeasures.
So joining us now on the line is Professor Liu Baocheng, Director of the Center for International Business Ethics with the University of International Business and Economics.
Thank you very much for joining us.
It's quite a pleasure.
So, first of all, Professor Liu, what do you think has really enabled China's both export and import growth to pick up their pace in the month of September?
I think the performance in September has been very much encouraging, primarily because one is that the world demand is still on a marginal rise.
And on the supply side, China is there to remain very competitive in its export drive.
More than 700000 companies were catered to exports, including many of the foreign enterprises in China.
And the business leaders are rather savvy and agile to new opportunities and explore other alternative markets aside from the United States.
And then the production reallocation to many parts of the world is also there, a country builder, for example, many of their low and labor intensive productions are relocated to vietnam, to india, to laos, etc.
That helps also to bring more of the goods both in and out in building the new manufacturing center.
So all together, so these factors produce a surprise pickup in September for the Chinese, both import and export performance, as you have quantitatively indicated.
So if Washington moves ahead to impose this additional 100 tariffs on Chinese goods bound for the United States, how do you assess the subsequent impact on China's export sector?
Well, United States, of course, is that really the largest single economy that received Chinese goods?
And the 100 tariff on a broad swath of the Chinese goods would be highly disruptive because, after all, we have nearly 700 billion dollars of trade by normal year and this year it has dropped by the so far, by end of September, by more than 16.
So that's going to be quite a hurdle, both for the Chinese exporters and also for the buyers in the United States, and hence the consumers.
So it's causing a sharp fall in the shipment to the United States, because the tariff products are really there to suffer a great deal in its bargaining power.
But in the meanwhile, it really pushes Chinese companies to divert its export market.
So therefore, as you notice, the ASEAN countries EU, Latin America and Africa they are very much on the rise in the destination of Chinese exports.
So that will be able to cushion the overall export volume and the shift of the composition.
And of course Chinese companies will suffer some margin, and particularly for those smaller companies that do not really enjoy a very high bargaining power or do not have the capacity to export new market niches overseas.
So another impact is really the global supply chain fragmentation, because China is now trading with virtually all corners of the world.
So that's going to be able to create a sort of a crowd out effect for some of the local exporters and also the local suppliers to many other types of markets.
So this is going to be quite a type of confusion at the moment.
But China's government is not there to sit still, but they are going to take some retaliative measures.
That's going to magnify the disruption effect and raise more of the geopolitical risk premium for Chinese businesses.
So when we talk about Chinese exporters now making some strides in some non-US markets, is that driven by the actual demand in those markets?
Oh yes, I think definitely.
It is really the market demand, because China is not really imposing anything on them, both in products and services.
So the regions, as we mentioned, the EU, ASEAN and Central Asia, they look forward for their own industrialization, urbanization drive, in which China happened to have such as out of advantage in the infrastructure construction in bringing more of the consumer goals and particularly to bring more of the new gauges like the e-vehicles you know the uh household robots and also china is so much competitive they do not really fund other supplies as you know, attractive as the Chinese supply.
So that's going to absorb more of the Chinese shipments.
So the data also shows that the rising share of the Chinese exports are going to such a region.
And particularly if you notice that last month's the africa really received a quite 16 percent of the increase in buying made in china.
And in the meanwhile china also opens um further of its market for the local produce, for uh the uh from other type of trading monitor partners.
One is to re uh rebalance the trade pattern.
The other is that we are going to reduce further tariff and some of the products also enjoy zero tariff.
So that's going to boost the trade and, more important, i think China is also able to shift more of the equipment and its expertise and know-how to be able to help the local growth in employment and also to support their industrial drive, and that's going to benefit the community and the small companies in those local governments and local communities.
I take your point.
So, by the way, when the Trump administration unveiled its latest terror threat against China on Friday last week, it was pointing its fingers to Beijing's recent move to tighten its rules for rare earth exports.
So, in your understanding, Professor Liu, is Beijing's recent move on rare earth justifiable?
Well uh, it is a very confusing question.
Uh, you know, the china lost this battle in wto twice in terms of the targeted control against certain countries, because that was not really considered as inconformity, was the uh, was the basic principle wto.
But china quickly corrected that.
But now, In these days, you know, the United States is the first one to really preempt the functionality of the WTO.
So people are no longer talking about global rules anymore.
And now another defense from Beijing is that they use this as a sort of strategic defense against its own core national interest and also remain as a bargaining chip with the United States.
And it is also very justifiable for China to be able to reciprocate the United States by refraining its export from the support of their military might.
So the due use or military use will definitely be very much contained from the China end.
And now it becomes a chicken and egg issue that the US is really complaining that, since China is there to remain its control on export of the rare earths to the United States, hence the 100 tariff, and also tightened control of their technology and some of the advanced chips.
But they really need to take into consideration.
It is really the United States who really fired the first shots that pushed China into the corner.
So we have to implement and reciprocate with more of the countermeasures.
So, lastly and very briefly, Professor Liu, maybe 30 seconds or so, do you think?
For Washington, the time has passed when it can resort to tariff or threat of tariff to engage with China.
Why or why not?
Well, you know, tariffs will cause a diminishing return to the United States because people eventually realized with the hard facts that consumers importers, distributors are going to pay more of that because nobody's going to sell at a cost for long from the Chinese side.
So it's a costly blowback.
And now the companies are also able to have Yeah, indeed.
It's going to lead to a lose-lose situation, that's for sure.
But thank you very much for joining us and your points well taken, Professor Liu Baocheng.
You're listening to World Today.
I'm Dinghan in Beijing.
We'll be back after a very short break.
You're back with World Today.
I'm Ding Hen in Beijing.
Leaders from more than 20 countries have gathered in the Egyptian city of Sham el-Sheikh for a Gaza Peace Summit.
The meeting is co-chaired by U.S.
President Donald Trump and Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah el-Sisi world leaders are looking to sign a peace agreement to consolidate a ceasefire and outline a post-war political framework.
The first phase of a ceasefire for Gaza has already come into effect, but questions remain over its future.
Israel says it has received the remaining 13 Israeli hostages, meaning that all 20 living hostages have now been released by Hamas under the first phase of the ceasefire deal.
So for more.
Joining us now on the line is Dr Wang Jing, a Middle East expert and associate professor with Northwest University in Xi'an, China.
Thank you very much for joining us.
First of all, in your observation, what are the main uncertainties facing a ceasefire for Gaza?
I think there were still a lot of uncertainties because the ceasefire now, particularly we're talking about the phase one of the ceasefire now, is very well and very successfully implemented.
But the problem remains.
Particularly we know that the Israeli side as well the Hamas side, they have different, different prospects over how the Gaza Strip should be constructed, because from the perspective of Israel, they believe that the Hamas should be dismantled or should be marginalized into the, into the greatest extent.
But from the perspective of Hamas, as they just mentioned and this and promised on many occasions that they would not give up, they would continue to play the dominant role in the Gaza Strip.
So how to define the future role of Hamas, how to define the future political scenario in the Gaza Strip, as well as how to define the relations between Israel and Hamas in the future.
I think these things would become the most uncertainties that could determine the future of the Gaza Strip political and security scenarios.
So, by the way, for the United States, do you think its priority is now shifting from negotiating a peace plan for Gaza towards preventing the Israeli side from launching new attacks in Gaza?
I think we cannot say that all of the mistakes should be blamed to the Israeli side, because we're talking about the conflict that is just to be suspended between the two sides.
Israeli has its responsibility, but I think Hamas also has its own responsibility.
So that's why I think that both sides Israeli side, Palestinian side they should reconsider their problem.
For United States perspective.
I think these things are interacted with each other, because if you want to prevent a war means that you have to make everybody satisfied with the status quo.
But then if you want to make everybody satisfied with the status quo, you have to prevent the further possible challenges from other side, from other Israeli side or from other The Hamas or other sites.
So that's why I think that that is why United States organized such a kind of the meeting in the conference in Egypt that may try to celebrate the successful signature, or successful rich, of the ceasefire deal and successful implementation of the phase one of the ceasefire deal.
And also, on the other hand, I think the United States try to enhance a kind of atmosphere or circumstances under which the phase two of the ceasefire could be more easier to be discussed or to be talked.
So that's why I think maybe United States Hope that both prevent the war as well as prevent the Israeli or Hamas to challenge or to violate the ongoing ceasefire right now.
So to maintain sustainable peace in Gaza.
What lessons can we possibly learn from the collapse of the last ceasefire for Gaza earlier this year?
I think the lesson has been learned.
For example, at the very early of this year, when the ceasefire deal was implemented, the hostages taken by Hamas were released by different periods.
I mean, just three hostages were released per week.
And, in exchange for Israel's side, release of Hamas and the Palestinian prisoners and also withdraw from some parts of the Gaza Strip.
By this time, we can say that what we could witness is that Hamas released once and for all, and Israel also redeployed their military forces in the Gaza Strip once or for all in the exchange of the release of the Israeli hostage taken by Hamas.
So that's why I think the lesson has been learned.
But Azul, maybe more things could be learned.
But the problem is that the difficulties still remains.
I mean the distrust between Israel and Hamas, the different divisions and the definitions over Hamas' role in the future in the Gaza Strip.
These things will remain.
No matter what kind of lessons we learn, I don't think nobody can overcome this kind of division and difficulties.
The final question before we let you go.
We know thousands of Palestinians have returned to Gaza City, for example, after the withdrawal of the Israeli troops, only to find that their original homes in ruins.
What will it take or what does it take to rebuild Gaza?
I think it just means that the new motivations should be given to the international community to help the local people and the local Gaza people, to help the local Palestinian people.
Because, although the war just suspended, on the one hand, the war could come and could be resumed anytime soon, given to the situation of what happened on the negotiation table between Israel and Hamas.
And also, on the other hand, we cannot forget that the international aid or international humanitarian assistance might not be enough.
So more attention should be given to the ongoing and possible escalating humanitarian crisis in the gala strip and the more sustainable channels and the humanitarian aid channels should be guaranteed.
So i mean more things should be done and more assistance and more patients should be transferred from international community to the conflicting sites to prevent the the war happening again.
Let's really hope for the best for the gather strip.
But thank you very much for joining us.
Dr. Wang Jing, Associate Professor, joining us from Northwest University in Xi'an, China.
You are listening to World Today.
We'll be back.
You're back with World Today, I'm Ding Hen in Beijing.
Jeffrey Sachs, an economics professor with Columbia University in the United States, has been a strong advocate for China's development.
His optimism comes from four decades of studying China's economy.
He believes everyone can benefit from China's technological advancements in a competitive world and he views containment as harmful and counterproductive.
My colleague Zou Yun recently had an interview with Professor Sachs for his insights.
Let's take a listen.
Professor Sachs, for so many years you've been a very strong supporter and advocate of China's development and growth, praising the country's opening up and reform, its technological advancement, as well as all those resilience in economic growth.
So where does this optimism and very strong confidence stem from?
I've watched China's development with my own eyes for 44 years now, because I first came to China in 1981.
I've been coming back regularly since then.
I've studied the Chinese economy for these four decades.
I have many colleagues, many students, many friends, many work projects in China for more than 40 years.
The confidence that I have comes from a lifetime of experience with China, watching China's development, being involved in analytical ways in China's Western development, watching China's technological development, visiting small companies like Huawei, which became very big giants for the world, and so forth.
So I've seen this with my own eyes.
China has even outperformed those expectations.
But my optimism is based on grounded experience and analysis.
Well, the technological advancement which you have referred to, I mean China's technological advancement, you have called them as a true win-win advance.
But these breakthroughs are also making some countries nervous and they're even trying to contain China's development from tariffs, from technical ban, as well as investment restrictions.
How do you think of these containment measures and do you think it will really hinder China's development?
When China makes technological advances in a competitive world, I can understand it might make some in America nervous.
But it should make them run faster, be more clever, invest more money in RD, make better strategies.
That kind of competition, a race, who can do better faster, that's fine, that's peaceful.
And it's mutually beneficial because everybody benefits from the advances that come.
Containment is a completely different idea.
Containment is, they're doing well, we have to stop them from doing well.
This is obnoxious, destructive. illegal according to international principles and it doesn't work.
So it's got all of the bad features that it's completely ineffective policy.
The United States is not going to contain China.
This is ridiculous.
China is a bigger economy.
It's the main trading partner for probably maybe 150 countries around the world at this stage.
It's at the technological forefront in many different areas.
It's got a wonderful innovation ecosystem.
It's got hundreds of thousands of STEM graduates every year.
You look at each year's new scientific journal articles which Nature publishes rankings China's right at the forefront of this.
I go to the great universities of China and see how astounding the progress.
So all of this is to say that The US approach should be support innovation in certain areas, partner with China, because if the US and China partnered on relieving global hunger or addressing the climate crisis, my God, the benefits for the whole world would be phenomenal.
In some places compete, like scientists do, who can get there first, but that's fine too.
But contain.
That is a destructive process and that's what we have to get out of the mindset and out of the policy.
You made a speech at the European Parliament which were depicted by some European media as explosive.
Because some of the points that you made there seem to be unconventional compared with some other mainstream voices, the so-called mainstream voices of Europe.
For example, during the speech, you stated China is not an enemy.
China is just a success story.
And that is why it is viewed by the United States as an enemy.
So Professor, why do you think it is important China to be viewed as a success story rather than an adversary?
What happened in the united states is quite clear.
When the soviet union ended in december 1991, the us looked around, and by us i mean the leaders, this is, the politicians, not the general public.
But the politicians looked around, said oh, we run the world, now we're the last ones.
No soviet union.
China, that's poor rice-growing villages.
They didn't even imagine anything about China's development.
They've looked at the rest of the world.
It's us.
And they took the mindset, now we run the world.
And in the 1990s, they used many expressions.
The most famous became what our then Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, said we are the indispensable country.
Well- little arrogant actually.
You know everybody's indispensable.
Why just four percent of the world population is the indispensable country.
This went to america's head.
American leaders took it for granted.
They could pretty much do what they want.
They could decide to expand their militaries if they wanted to.
They could overthrow governments if they wanted to.
They could go to war, for example in iraq, if they wanted to.
Other countries were saying that's not a good idea, don't do that.
But the United States wasn't listening.
When, in 2003, for example, the US said we need to attack Iraq because of weapons of mass destruction.
The rest of the world, including China and of course, Russia and Germany at the time said but wait a minute, we don't find weapons of mass destruction.
We don't even know, let's continue the inspections.
And the United States said, no, we do what we want.
And they went to war.
Of course, it was on false pretenses, not just wrong pretenses.
We now know it was filled with lies.
But they felt the ability to go to war on the basis of lies and that they would make it up in the narrative.
That is the mindset that got the US into so much trouble now.
China, where does China fit into this?
Well as the US was boasting about its world leadership and being indispensable, China just kept growing.
China's not a threat.
Talk to China, come to China, work with China, negotiate with China, have diplomacy.
And then the threat isn't there, then the possibility of mutual benefit is there.
And as we know, China-U.S. relations is one of the most important ballot relations worldwide.
Given the ongoing frictions between the two nations, what might be essential to navigate these complexities between our two nations?
The hardest part right now is that President Trump and the Trump administration is very unstable in its policies.
We have a policy in the morning, a different policy in the afternoon and a third policy at night.
China operates in a completely different way.
China has a a long-term plan, five-year plan, even four yes, and it's very systematic and it's a a very complex, uh big, operating system.
So one side's improvising.
The other side is on a long-term path.
I'm hoping the united states can actually turn to longer term thinking and to diplomacy and negotiation with China, rather than this unilateralism and this improvisation.
I'm not too optimistic, but that's what we should have.
Jeffrey Sachs, a renowned professor with Columbia University, talking with my colleague Zou Yun.
Coming up.
The International Monetary Fund has warned of uncertainty being the new normal in the world economy.
You're listening to World Today.
We'll be back.
You are listening to World Today.
I'm Ding Hen in Beijing.
The International Monetary Fund says the global economy is holding up better than feared, but worse than we need.
As finance ministers and central bank governors gather in Washington for the IMF and World Bank meetings, there is a warning in the air.
Uncertainty is the new normal.
The IMF chief, Kristalina Georgieva, says the United States is now expected to avoid a recession and global growth is slowing only slightly.
But the cracks are showing.
Gold just hit 4000 an ounce, a sign that investors are nervous and stock valuations are starting to look like the dot-com days.
The IMF says resilience has not yet been fully tested, and that test may be coming.
For more my colleague Zhao, Yang earlier spoke with Yan Liang, professor of economics with Willamette University.
So, Yan, the IMF says for global economy, uncertainty is the new normal.
So how do you understand it and what kind of uncertainty are we talking about?
Is that trade, finance or geopolitics?
What are they?
Well, I think it's all of the above right that you mentioned about trade, as we know that the United States has been waging this tariff war against many countries in the world and the escalation also is being seen in the recent days between the United States and China.
So that uncertainty is very high.
And when it comes to finance, the stock market has been really heavily driven by the AI revolution, with many companies are spending a lot on their CapEx.
That drives up the stock market.
But again, that is also uncertain how long that momentum can last.
And finally, as you talk about politics, we know the geopolitics has been really reshuffling and shifting very rapidly in the recent months and even days, with regional hot wars and also some of the confrontations.
So I think all of these indicate that uncertainty has been elevated.
And that is definitely a big challenge for the global economy from individual businesses to at this government level how to make policies going forward.
And that's why I think this idea that uncertainty is a new normal, it's actually quite a rational assessment of the current world that we lived in.
And six months ago, recession fears loomed large.
And now the IMF says the global economy is coping better than feared, but worse than we need.
So what's behind this cautious optimism?
And do you agree with their assessment?
Well, I think you know this idea that we're really not where we should be.
It's a very clear and sobering assessment, right?
The projection back in July by the IMF is that the world economy is going to grow at 3 this year, which again it's better than you know recession scenarios, but it's definitely lower than the 37 average growth rate projected before the pandemic.
So we really have a lot of growth potential.
But because of all the uncertainties that we just mentioned, I think that is why it's cautious.
And I think China is definitely holding up quite well as well, especially when it comes to trade performance.
This year so far, export has gone up by over 6% in value terms.
So I think all of these presents a relatively optimistic outlook for the IMF.
But again, this kinds of tariff war, it's really unnecessary, right?
And really produce the loose scenario for both the United States and the global economy.
So the sooner I think that the Washington can walk back from all these very aggressive tariff war, I think the better it is for the global economy and for the US economy by removing the kinds of uncertainties from the economic system.
And the gold price actually breaking the US$4,000 per ounce.
So what does that tell us about the investor sentiment right now?
Right.
So the gold price was mostly driven by.
You know, the central banks are raking up gold in the reserves.
So far, gold has account for 20 percent of the global official reserves, which is the first time that surpassed the share of the US.
Treasuries.
And I think private investors also follow suit.
Right.
Because they have concerns about the US fiscal situation, the dollar trend and also the monetary policy of the United States.
So all of these also lure investors private sector investors to invest in gold and diversify their portfolios.
So I think, as the IMF management directors talked about, this is quite unprecedented, and this is another piece of evidence that the world is facing uncertainty, because gold now is seen as a safe haven asset and there's a lot of investments into it.
So I think that is really the sentiment that this idea of uncertainty and the idea of de-risking, risk diversification seem to be really the trend of the market these days.
And we've seen the share prices in the US have surged to fresh highs, driven by the high valuation for the Magnificent Seven.
So, drawing a parallel with the dot-com bubble at the turn of the millennium, the IMF had said today's valuation are heading towards levels we saw during the bullishness about the internet 25 years ago.
So how do you view that?
Well, I think that is a very stern caution, right?
A warning call, I think, to the global markets.
And I think in some ways she could be right, because what we are seeing is as the financial market valuations is really similar to the internet related bullishness about 25 years ago.
And very quickly.
As we know, the abrupt shift in the investor sentiment happened in March 2000, which basically caused the stock bubble to burst.
And these days, as I mentioned earlier, there's a lot of you know capex by AI related businesses and that drives the stock market.
And when you look at the forward PE ratio, it's very high.
You know that always called the sort of the question how long this is going to last, especially when you have, for example, MIT published a report that says many companies are yet to really capitalize on the investments in AI and see the actual revenue or productivity growth.
So, given that the financial market now, especially the stock market, is so concentrated now in these tech stocks, right.
The Magnificent Seven account for over 35% of the stock market valuation.
So I think, with the very concentrated investments in this very small amount of companies and sectors, I do think the kinds of caution is not overstated.
And I do think that again, going back to this idea, that buckle up.
As managing director says, uncertainty is manifested in the stock market.
And the IMF also calls for more policy coordination among major economies.
So do you think a greater policy coordination among major economies could help ease these global uncertainties for the economy?
Absolutely.
I think the policy coordination is very essential because you know when you have a government like the United States is making policies that are only benefiting its own economy and in some ways, you know, at the expense of the global economy.
And I think that creates a lot of distrust and problems for other countries.
Now, it is not to say that the U.S. should not focus on their domestic issues.
I think they have all the rights to focus on their domestic issues.
But this kind of unilateral trade policy, I think it's really damaging, not only for the US economy but for the global economy as well.
So when you look at, again, the U.S.'
's unilateral trade policy and their tech policies.
By the way, I think it really exerts a lot of uncertainty in the global economy.
And, you know, when the U.S. imposed tariffs, it actually undercuts the U.S. own economy, right?
The manufacturing sector actually shed 33,000 jobs so far in 2025.
And also their trade deficit has been widening by 27% year on year.
So these kinds of policy is not really helping the United States, but it's definitely created these orderly changes in the global trading system and create a lot of distrust among countries.
So I think yes, policy coordination would be helpful.
Especially, I think, many developing countries are bearing the brunt of these exchange rate fluctuations, but also the blockade in their trade prospect.
So I think it is helpful to have policy coordination.
But unfortunately, I think at this point the United States doesn't seem to be really play in a cooperative manner with the governments in the world.
And then the global uncertainties Yan which sectors or regions look most vulnerable right now, and which ones might actually thrive among the global realignment.
Well, I think the tech sector is in some ways having more uncertainty than others just because again, there's so much spending on investments in the AI industry.
And yet you know there's still the question about how much the AI is actually going to generate.
You know, sustained revenue growth and productivity growth.
When it comes to regions, I think the Asian economies are looking better because of, you know, their innovations, their regional supply chain and their production.
You know underlying foundations are quite strong.
But other than that, I think, you know, many countries and regions are vulnerable.
For example, African countries very much inundated with external debt and struggle to pay these external debt and also facing really widening tech divides.
So I think this makes these regions and countries particularly more vulnerable than others.
But, that said, I also think that China's approach to AI to make it cost effective, make it open sourced and also very quickly integrate AI technologies in the traditional industries and to really capitalize on the benefits and efficiency that AI can bring I think that is really the right approach.
Dr Yan Liang, professor of economics with Willamette University, talking with my colleague Zhao Yang.
That's all the time for this edition of World Today.
To listen to this episode again or to catch up on our previous episodes.
You can download our podcast by searching World Today.
And for further discussion, you can follow us on X at CGTM Radio.
I'm Dinghan in Beijing.
Thank you so much for listening.
Bye for now.
