The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Cousin Sal | The Bill Simmons Podcast

This episode is brought to you by BetterHelp.

There's a lot of misconceptions around mental health, especially if you're a guy, but you shouldn't be ashamed to seek help when you need it.

Trust me. Everyone needs help sometimes.

A great way to get the support you need is BetterHelp.

They can match you with the right therapist in an easy, comfortable, judgment-free way.

We're all better with help. Visit betterhelp.com slash Bill Simmons to get 10% off your first month.

That is betterhelp.com slash Bill Simmons.

This episode is brought to you by Yahoo Fantasy.

This season is around the corner fantasy football. taking over.

Everyone's researching, drafting, putting together their championship squads.

And if you haven't joined a league yet, now's the time.

It's all happening on Yahoo Fantasy. This year, I'm playing on Yahoo Fantasy and you should too.

We're doing a big ringer draft at the end of August.

There's going to be bragging rights and all kinds of bells and whistles with it.

Can't wait to use the Yahoo Fantasy platform.

The season starts September 4th, so now is the time to start playing Yahoo Fantasy Football, which offers so many fun ways to compete.

Want more ways to play? Try the new Yahoo Fantasy Guillotine League mode where the lowest scoring team gets eliminated weekly.

Want to play instantly with friends? Try the new...

Draft with friends mode. Prefer the classics?

Play in a private head-to-head league or join a public league.

Play now at yahoofantasy.com slash Simmons.

Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network.

We're back. right back. It's over under time.

We are going to have multiple parts Wednesday night, Thursday morning.

Then Sunday, we're going to guess the lines, our future stuff.

And we're just in here. just banging out in the new studio, banging out all kinds of future bets.

Real quick, before we dive into the open-enders, shout out to FanDuel for something new.

They launched a futures parlay feature which means you can parlay player milestone bets with team futures.

Are we going to do this again? I thought we could just talk.

We're going to do the whole gambling thing?

We're apparently going to talk about gambling.

Oh, wait. I can't wait to talk about gambling.

Yeah, so if you think like Borough is going to have most passing yards, but the Bengals are going to go under, Parlay those babies together and you're good to go.

Check out the Ringer Specialist tab on FanDuel Sportsbook for more of our favorite picks.

Shield, J.J., Raheem, the rest of the ringer crew, they're all there.

New rewatchables coming on... Monday, it's our 400th movie.

I'm not going to say what the movie is, but it's one you've probably seen.

The cuz and I, we've gone, this is our 19th year.

19. We're going to take a break, Pearl Jam, and then we're off with the AFC.

All right, cuz. We usually start with the AFC.

What we do every year is we do the overrunners come out.

We started them in April. You even came on my pod this year.

We talked about it. Then we look at them and we keep looking at them.

They change. The alt lines come out. We keep looking.

People start... banging certain teams, certain teams they don't like, and just the money lines change.

We're debating yesterday about Buffalo. Is that like, which over under do we use 12 and a half or 11 and a half?

Cause there's juice on both. I love it.

I can't get enough of it. It's great. It's great because we have like four months until we lose these bets.

Not you. You were excellent last year. By the way, I feel like I'm staring.

It's going to take a minute. I feel like I'm staring into a kaleidoscope.

It's also colorful and pretty. You have uncut cards.

It's like a preteen opened a museum in 1976.

Yeah. NBA hole. I put some football on cuts so you wouldn't think I was an NBA hole.

I'm going to cut these in the middle of the night.

I love it. The angriest you ever made me with a prank.

You cutting up the uncuts. So I did really well last year.

And it's funny because when we do this stuff and we talk about teams, we talk about regression.

It's like, oh, Washington, all these things went right last year.

And this is such a classic regression season.

I think I'm going to have a regression season.

Really? Yeah, I don't have a feel for this year at all.

Should you have retired like Marvelous Marvin Hagler?

I thought about it. It would have been fun if I just dropped the mic and that was it.

I was done. I would take 20 and 12 this year right now.

Oh yeah. Yeah. What is that? What percentage is that?

I don't know. It's good. I would take it.

I might even, you can talk me into 19 and 13.

Okay. So I was trying to figure out why it was so much harder this year.

And I think it's because of reasons that we'll go into when we hit the specific teams.

But teams that check a lot of the boxes, there's this one thing where I'm like, ugh.

Like the giants are a good example. A lot of boxes for the out of nowhere sleeper.

And then you look at their schedule and you're like, Oh my Lord.

I had them 90% there, and we'll get to the NFC in like three and a half hours.

But I had them 90% there, and then I looked at the schedule.

I'm like, where are these wins coming from?

So there's that. And I think we just have more good quarterbacks than we usually have because we've had a couple good classes of QBs come in.

There's like the Drake May and Caleb Williams class. is kind of ready to ascend with all these guys in their prime.

And you go through and there's really only two teams with genuinely shitty quarterbacks plus Indianapolis, which I'm happy to shoehorn in as the third one.

We have a good crop of 26-year-old second-year players.

They figured it out. Yeah, so I think that makes it harder because it's easy to be like, oh, that team's going to suck.

Like, New Orleans, like, oh, they're going to suck.

Right. But there's not enough of those this year.

We're doing AFC first. We're going to go team by team.

Explain the over-under conundrum. I know you did in the opening, but there's four or five lines where the 11.5% over is minus 140, but the 10 and a half under is minus 140, right?

So it's like, We didn't know which tight.

Some of these aren't tighter than the others.

Yeah, basically there's juice on both numbers.

So Buffalo is a good example. They're 12 and a half.

The under has the juice. If you go 11 and a half, the over has the juice.

So we tried to look at the minus 140 range for all this.

And what we do, Vegas puts out these over-unders.

We talk about each team and we decide...

Are they going over or are they going under the bet?

So we'll start with Buffalo. They're over.

We settled on 12.5. That's got some juice.

Plus 150 in their conference. Plus 350 for that.

7-1 for the Super Bowl. Plus 250 if you think they can be the one seed.

And they were 13 and four last year, almost three to one favorites to win the division.

And here's my question for you, Josh Allen, 29 years old.

I just said, I think he's the best. That part's true.

I just said, I think he's the best quarterback in the league, even though I know Mahomes has the championship belt.

But I thought Allen start to finish was the best guy last year.

Four top five MVP finishes won the MVP last year.

61 and 22 is the starter in the 2020s. But he's basically Tommy Hearns.

He's in all these great fights, but he never wins the fight.

Where's that card? Oh, Tommy's ticket. There's a Tommy ticket behind you.

Yeah. Yeah. But we've also seen Steve Young.

A couple of MVP got over the hump. He won when he was in 1994.

Peyton Manning, two MVPs, four top five, won the Super Bowl at age 30.

I'm going all in on this is Josh Allen getting over the hump.

I'm picking Buffalo to win the Super Bowl.

I'm just going to do it now. Oh, we're doing it like that.

I'm just telling you now. I'm in. I'm riding Buffalo this year.

Do I have to get my Super Bowl thing? No, you do not.

No, save yours. Okay. I'm just saying. It might be very similar.

Yeah. This is, I'm just all in on the Josh Allen magical carpet ride year.

This is it. Because this is the first thing we do every year.

And I feel like both of us try to get cute.

All right, how can Buffalo... get upended and not even win the AFC East.

Let's stop with that. As long as Josh Allen's healthy.

I did it last year. I took Aaron Rodgers.

Right. I know. So, Oh God, shaking my head.

But you, if yes, I think the only thing you figure out here is if they win 11, 12 or 13 games.

I think that's the only thing. Barring injury with Josh Allen, like you said, the best in the league.

I mean, they won 12 playoff games in five years.

It's on... it's not right to blame him for the losses.

I think in those playoffs losses, they allowed 33 points a game.

So he can only do so much. You could say the same for Lamar Jackson.

We'll get to him, but yeah, They re-signed everybody.

They gave him $55 million. They signed Rousseau, Shakir, Joey Bosa.

They bring in as an edge. They lose Von Miller. best years behind them.

I think it's fine. They traveled the fewest miles out of any team.

Though, all that said... I'm going to go 12 wins, six consecutive division title.

You're going under. I guess that's under, yeah, if we're going 12 and a half.

I wanted to go under, and I went through the schedule, which was surprisingly light.

So the AFCs plays the North and the South.

Mm-hmm. which is really important because the South, I think, is probably the worst division unless you want to make the AFC South case.

And then AFC North... other than Baltimore, like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and then Cleveland, obviously.

They played the first place schedule, so they have Philly, KC, and Houston.

But here's what I thought Conspiracy bill.

It's too hard for me to get out of this seat and put on the conspiracy bill outfit.

I'll wait. It felt like the league stacked 2025 for Buffalo a little bit.

You think so? Home games. Yeah. Baltimore, KC, Philly, Cincy and Tampa.

Right. All of them home. Road games, they're playing five bad 2024 teams, plus Atlanta, they're at Houston, and they're at Pittsburgh.

Mm-hmm. They might, other than at Houston, which I think will be tough, especially with Houston's defense, they might not play an above 500 team on the road.

And then they have all these people coming to them.

So that was one of the reasons. They officially have the easiest road schedule in the league if you go by projected over-unders, not by last year.

And 21 and 2 at home, by the way. This is early 90s bills we're talking about now.

Over the last three years, 21 and 2. So I have them... basically 12 and four going into that last game week 18 at home against the jets.

And last year they tanked the score over the Patriots.

I think they just win that one, but I have them slightly over.

So I think they're, I think they're the one seed.

A bet that I really like actually at plus 250.

And I think they're 13 and four, 14 and three, somewhere in there.

That's where it ends. All right. That's good.

All right. I say 12. I have to go slightly on that.

I did my crazy psychotic player rankings this year with the offense, defense, coaches, offensive line.

And the Bills I had at 29. Ed Allen is the top QB.

Their O-line is the top four offensive line.

James Cook. He's in there. You could talk maybe, I didn't give Shakira a point, but you could talk me into it.

And then Rousseau, Jones, Milano, Benford, Johnson.

They have five chippers on the D and I think the coaching staffs at least top 10, right?

And then home field advantage, you would have to say is probably top four.

93% or whatever that is. Yeah. So the angriest you were at yourself this week is passing on Josh Allen as the one pick in our Ringer Fantasy League.

No, the angriest I was was last year that I did the Jets to win Buffalo.

And if I had switched that, I would have gone 29-3 last year.

Right, right. That was a stupidest. And I was battling back and forth.

Well, I get my revenge on Rodgers in about five teams.

Go get it. All right, so you're under on Buffalo.

Yeah, but 12 and 5 is a good year for this team.

I know they play the first-place schedule every year, but I feel like Teams are gunning for him a little more.

I do like that road schedule, though. I really do.

Well, let me ask you this. You don't have to say the team, but do you have a team finishing with a better record than that in the AFC?

In the AFC? No, I do not. So that's 1C.

So you think that could be the 1C? And I mean, then they could tank against the Jets there.

Well, that was one other thing I was thinking with the Jets.

Because if it's like 12 and 4... and they have the one seed at stake, maybe they go for that game.

So I'm going over for them. Next up is going to be the New England Patriots.

So we talk about this every year, the... kind of can't believe they made the playoffs list, which is basically anybody with odds from, I would say maybe plus one 20 to plus two 50.

2024, two teams in this range that made the playoffs.

Tampa was plus 144. Pittsburgh plus 194.

The year before, Green Bay plus 138. Year before, Miami plus 142.

And the Giants with Danny Dimes plus 225.

So we know we're getting at least one team, probably two from this list, which is, I won't read all the odds, but Arizona, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, New England's plus 160.

We were about to talk about Seattle, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Chicago, Dallas, Miami is plus 220, Carolina is plus 250.

I'm guessing two to three teams from that list, right?

I was going to say three to four total out, three to four in.

But yeah, maybe three. Yep. So I have the Pats over and I actually have them in the playoffs.

Yeah. And you can't call me Homer because last year I was adamant they were going to be the worst team in the league.

No, it's fine. Somehow they were until the last week.

Yeah. Joe Milton had the game of his life.

I spent all summer trying to figure out a way to take them under because, well, this number is another one that stuck and between seven and a half and eight and a half, right?

It was seven and a half for a while, and then it kind of bumped.

And now it's like a legitimate eight and a half.

Yeah, so I think they win nine games I'm not going to shit on them.

It's so much more fun if you think they're going to be great and then they just fail.

And, you know, but, better coach upgraded and free agency.

They drafted well on paper and that schedule seven of the first nine teams under 500 last year, like forget about tanking for picks.

Like some of these teams, tanked for a better schedule and it worked.

It really is spectacular. Number two easiest schedule versus number two toughest schedule.

And they're favored in 11 games. So if you're giving them nine wins, you're not being a homer.

They're favored in 11 games. And that was the case from the, I bet on them pretty early.

You know, AFC North, NFC South, and then the fourth place schedule.

And you just go through... And you're like, all right, I think we can beat them.

Yeah, I think we can beat them too. This is the team that checks the most boxes for new coach, Easy schedule.

Basically what Washington had last year.

You could count Drake May as a new quarterback, even though he played 10 games last year.

They loaded up. I was higher on them about three weeks ago.

They spent a lot of money on the defense.

And they have four guys that I gave points on defense.

They had a great draft. That's what has to improve, right?

They were dead last in pressure, so. Yeah, they're going to have a better defense.

I don't think it can get to be a top five defense, but I think it can be top 10.

Yeah. There definitely is a depth issue with them because our Lord and Savior, Bill Belichick, The drafts were just an abomination down the stretch there.

And then Cole Strange ironically got waived.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. And that you go to back to Cole strange.

And I think I have this right. They trade out of the pick to Kansas city that Kansas city used to take Trent McDuffie.

Who's awesome. Right. Then they go to where they took Strange and they took him right in front of George Karloftis.

Right. So the Chiefs get these two guys who are like blue chip guys for them and...

Belichick took a guard. It was weird when it happened.

It was kind of like, are you trying to sabotage the Patriots?

McVeigh famously laughed. So anyway, all those drafts.

Boo-hoo is what I have to say to that. But also, let me give you this before we move on.

Speaking of Drake, remember last year. Is it a log?

Well, last year I got you... Do you remember what I got you?

It was a signed... Yeah, signed pylon. Pylon.

Where is that, by the way? I need that for the studio.

Drake May signed the pylon. Uh-oh. And this year...

It's a signed Drake May pylon that I found in a freaking closet that they were going to empty.

What? into a dumpster. It's the same gift?

It's the same thing. I'm not letting you throw that out.

I'm following that thing. I didn't want to throw that out.

What bad mojo you would have. The Patriots would have had five.

Oh, it's great. It was about... I rescued a pylon.

I mean, it was really, we moved studios like 17.

All right. This looks great there. Go ahead.

He's laughing. He knows it's not staying there.

He knows it's not staying. Look how great this is.

Oh, if that had gone, we would have won four games this year if that went in the trash.

Can I give you the Pats first four? Yeah.

I know you know it already. Home Raiders at the Dolphins, which the Pats don't have a great history at.

Home Steelers, home Panthers. Mild 4-0 possibilities.

There's also, oh my God, I can't believe we're 1-3 and now we're playing Buffalo in Buffalo on Sunday night.

I thought the season was going to go better.

Yeah, yeah. The case for the Pats, beyond all the stuff we mentioned, is that the AFC kind of sucks.

And we're going to have a weird six seed and we're going to have a weird seven seed.

And you could talk yourself into eight teams.

You'd be like, I like the Bengals. Well, their defense is going to be awful.

Yep. Right? So, all right, go take the Bengals.

There's something wrong with every team.

And a tougher schedule. Yeah, that seventh seed, I had like four teams, I think, at nine and eight.

And I did a weird tiebreaker and have the Patriots advancing for the playoffs. how many teams did you have in a six seat or seven seat slot?

Because I got to the point where I, I test drove Indianapolis.

No. And no, this is when they had Richardson. no i test drove i test drove them for a second i'm like and tyler warren and then i was like oh my god get me out of this car what am i doing you don't even wear a seatbelt.

That is dangerous shit for test driving Richardson.

Yeah. So... Two other things just quickly.

I think the defense is going to be actually pretty good and maybe even really good.

They get Landry as a Vrabel guy, get him in free agency.

Vrabel has made the two coaches that seem, and I could maybe throw in Pete Carroll too, but have come in and feel like they've changed culture immediately are him and Ben Johnson.

Like you read the Ben Johnson stuff or hear the stories and it's just like a different team.

Maybe Eberfluss last year. We had... the worst coach in the league, which is saying something because Dennis Allen was there.

I don't even think Mayo is going to ever be in football again.

Right. Right. And it was just a mess. The GM was a mess.

A lot of the dumb contracts they gave out, they're already trying to get out of.

So Vrabel came in, he cleaned it up, but, um, Look, I really believe in Drake May.

We talked about him a bunch last year in the pod.

Not a signed pile-on, but him as a player.

Yeah. Yeah. I really believe he's talented.

My one fear with him is just that him taking dumb hits.

Cause he kept doing that last year. Yeah.

Can he stay in the field for 17 games? But I genuinely think this could be a breakout thing.

I have them at 10 and 7. I think he'll be good.

Why? He's... As good, I think, as Bo Nix.

I'll say that now. I'm sure I'll get shit for it, but they're not going to lose because of him.

If anything, it's a defense. You have 10-7.

It's a lot to turn around, though. That defense was really rough.

That's a four-win team. What did they have?

And you can thank all those coaches for giving you a terrible schedule.

But we're talking about new coach bump is usually five wins.

Yeah. And then the schedule is super easy.

Four or five wins, but then the schedule is crazy.

I'll give you the wins. Raiders, Dolphins.

One of two with Steelers-Panthers. I think they beat the Saints, Browns, Falcons, Jets, Giants home Monday night.

Yeah, I mean, Jets, Dolphins last week. I think that's 10.

Yeah, I have nine. You have 10. You know what?

That You just don't want a dumb thing in Miami.

Oh, they played him too early. It was 108 on the turf.

They made him wear dark. They made him wear, they don't even have these jerseys.

They made him wear it. So, Although, you probably want to catch Miami while they're seeming super dysfunctional.

10 plus wins, plus 190, if you like the 10.

But I think the playoffs is probably a better bet at plus 160.

Nine and eight is going to make the playoffs with one of those spots.

That's how I have it. I couldn't get a lot of these teams to 10, but.

The Pats had four guys on defense that I gave points to.

Williams, Spillane, Davis, and Gonzalez.

And this Spillane is already called here.

The only thing that hasn't been great is Roman Anthony has completely taken Drake May's corner in Boston.

It's like the next Prince of Boston. So Drake May's got to pull that back.

You want to take a win away, maybe? I was thinking about it.

I was thinking like a Roman Anthony tax.

There's a tariff going on between teams?

Everybody loves Roman Anthony. I was like, guys, I just got here.

Get your Drake majors in. We'll be done in late September.

It'll be all right. Jets, six and a half.

This was five and a half at one point. The over for six and a half is plus 120.

They really wanted to do the under. Eight plus wins is plus 190.

If you think they're a playoff team, if you believe in Justin Field, plus 470.

They were five and 12 last year. that feels around where they're going to be again.

I just, here's my big question. Is there any way to make Justin Fields a winning QB?

I just don't see it. I just don't think he's accurate enough.

And we saw it in Pittsburgh. He was in a great situation.

And they kind of bailed on him after five games.

He just wasn't good enough. He holds the ball too long.

And that is almost could be the number one metric you look at for quarterbacks.

That's a sure thing now. Yeah. I know he runs better than any of those guys, but, you know, he can luck into winning games, but I don't think he's going to be the reason.

They win games. I know he, Garrett Wilson, they had the thing in Ohio state, but I think they're going to be a frisky team.

That's going to win six games. But I don't I don't see anything more than that.

It's just kind of tough. And, you know, Aaron Glenn's good replaces Salah and Albrecht.

They have a new OC in there, the Lions basketball coordinator.

Hackett's gone. All that stuff is good. They re-signed Sauce Gardner.

I'm looking at their... The receivers are... The receiver room is tough.

Yeah. The Brees Hall, Braylon Allen thing.

Braylon Allen's a big fantasy sleeper right now.

The fact that they thought they had this really special running back in Brees Hall and Now he's going to be a third down running back.

Nothing. Yeah, I don't know. You know, they signed a couple of cheap secondary players, but I don't know.

I don't see Fields taking them. We'll know week one, right?

We'll kind of know. I mean, will we know against the Steelers?

Like, that's going to be huge and fun. That's the other thing I really did not like about the Jets.

Steelers home. Good defense they're going against.

Yep. Bills home at Bucks and then at Dolphins on a Monday night.

But that feels a little 0-4-ish. I'm just...

Both of us were out on fields last year.

I guess that if you're going anti-regression, they blew six fourth quarter leads last year.

Yeah. they had a bizarre coaching situation with eight kids.

Salah got bounced. Is that why they have two primetime games this year versus six last year?

Yeah. Yes. I think that it might be better for them actually.

They took that memo pretty high. The offensive lineman.

Yeah. What was he, seventh? Pretty rocky preseason.

There were some tough videos with him. And it seems like the guy the Saints got, Kelvin Banks, was actually... a little more reliable.

Yeah, they lose Devontae Adams, DJ Reed, who's, you know.

Yeah. arguably better than Stevens. I don't know who they got.

Kinlaw's gone. Hassan Reddick wasn't a good fit there, but...

Yeah, the tackle's a good run and pass protector, but it might have reached him.

Yeah, I'm around. I'm under here. And I'm actually right at the number.

I'm 6-11 for them. Yeah, that's right. So the new coaches, Brable, Glenn for the Jets, Cohen for the Jags.

Pete Carroll replacing our guy Antonio Pierce.

Mm-hmm. Ben Johnson for Eberfluss, your team, which we'll talk about in part two.

And then your guy, Kellen Moore. So we only had seven new coaches.

Usually it feels like we have like 10. Well, the next thing we're about to talk about might have a new coach in like three weeks.

Miami, over seven and a half. I bet this immediately.

I still can't believe the over is seven and a half.

I thought it would drop to six by now. Mm-hmm.

Playoffs to make it there, plus 225. To finish fourth place... in the AFC East, plus 220, enticing.

We might have a couple fourth-place bets with them.

They were 8-9 last year. There's some alt bets if you really like a season from hell for them. can go like under four and a half wins plus 490, under five and a half wins plus 260.

That was my first question to you. Will Mike McDaniel be our first coach fired?

Is there anyone else you would pick as a bet?

I mean, he's begging for it. I think Dayball lasts.

I'm trying to look at it. I saw it. We talked to this fan.

There's a lot of Giants. Good buzz, though.

Dayball would surprise me. They might give him another year. it's a quarterback situation but McDaniel what was his thing he talked about we're narrowed to death we're closer to like no one's begging to be fired more than Mike McDaniel you know We're closer to death.

Like he's got a, I, I just don't like this team.

The only time I like it is when Tyree kill is at his healthiest.

But if you leave them, look at the metrics, He does not fit on this team because Tua is so injury prone with however many concussions.

He's got to throw it quick. your speedster means a lot less, right?

Right, he should be on like the Falcons with Penix just gunning it to him.

He should go somewhere else. Plus, he has a 98 speed on Madden now, and that's going to tear him up all year.

Wow, they dropped him? Yeah, yeah. Oh my God.

Yeah. So that makes me drop. I still gave them six wins because it wasn't, you gave them like four or something.

I was five and 12. Oh, you were? Okay. Yeah.

I mean, McDaniel, I think, is going to be fired by Halloween.

The only case for them is so many people have talked about how much they didn't like... I mean, their defensive backs...

Awful. Maybe the worst secondary in the league.

Bad offensive line? Plus Tua. So he's just going to be getting rid of the ball right away.

They're not going to be able to cover anybody.

So if... They're going to fall behind and then it's just going to be like everybody coming at Tua.

And it seems like their schedule gets harder as the year gets along.

So if they start out, even if they're Three and four, they're in some trouble, but two and five would be not great.

They have... they're playing the second-place schedule, so they have Indy and the Chargers and Washington and that group.

Yeah, six of the first eight are against teams that didn't make the playoffs, but I just don't like...

I mean, I looked at it. They had the most holding penalties in the league last year.

How do you do that with a quarterback who's getting rid of the ball before he even has it?

You're playing a speed offense. Yeah. I thought they were really sloppy last year.

The case for them would be healthy to a season.

They got a left tackle. They liked that guy, Patrick Paul.

And then, uh, The pass rush is back that a lot of guys heard last year.

They went beefy. We're going to throw the bomb and rush the passer.

I don't see it. They drafted a lot of big guys.

They actually drafted a guy. What's the guy with?

I got to find his name here. Zeke Biggers was a guy they drafted.

Sounds like a WWE wrestler. Yeah. I wrote this down.

I know JJ's talked about this a bunch of times.

Sorry, JJ. But the Dolphins just fall through the cracks for the 21st century NFL train wrecks.

Their last playoff win, I went back and I watched it.

23-17 overtime over the 2000 Colts and Peyton Manning.

And it's this crazy Lamar Smith game where he has like 40 carries and then he runs into the end zone for the win.

They cut to some coach. I think it's Wonstad.

I can't remember. That was their last playoff win.

They've won one AFC East title this century.

They have five playoff appearances and they've had 11 head coaches.

If their owner was a little more of an asshole, they would be the Cowboys.

People would be talking about them and not Dallas.

But it's Serena Williams, right? Who's the owner?

I don't know. Steven Ross? Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Anyway, they're terrible and I think they're gonna be, so we both have six.

Is there a, I think this is like six to one, a Buffalo, Pats, Jets, Dolphins, exact order.

Did we bet this already? I think it's on there as a special.

I think we're going to do a few of those.

Who screws that up? Well, that's what you want, right?

You want to know the first place team and the last place team.

I think we're both keyed in on who those are going to be.

And then you figure out second. I feel like we know the first two and then it's like three or four.

Yes. Crap shoot. All right. We're going to...

We're going to take a break and then we're going to hit the AFC Central.

The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel.

Week one of college football is finally here and FanDuel is kicking things off with a no sweat bet.

Just for you. That means you can place any bet on college football this week, and if it doesn't hit, you get it back in bonus bets, whether you're riding with your alma mater or backing a top 10 matchup.

FanDuel, as you covered, with live betting, game props, alternate lines, and more.

So bet confidently because with No Sweat Bet, even your first miss comes with a second chance.

Download the Fando app now or head to Fando.com slash BSMyInitials to get started.

You must be 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and present in D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming.

Opt-in required. Refund issued as a non-retriable bonus bet that expires seven days after receipt.

Max refund $5. unless otherwise specified restrictions apply, including token expiration.

See terms at sportsbook.findo.com. Game problem call 1-800-GAMBLER. or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789-7777, or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut.

This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats.

Summer is here and you can now get almost anything you need for your sunny days delivered.

With Uber Eats. What do I mean by almost?

Well, you can't get a well-groomed lawn delivered. but you can get chicken Parmesan delivered.

I love chicken Parmesan. A day in the sun?

No. A bottle of rum? Yes. Uber Eats can definitely...

Get you that. Get almost almost anything delivered with Uber Eats.

Order now. For alcohol, you must be legal drinking age.

Please enjoy responsibly. Product availability varies by region.

See app. for details. And now for a special part of today's show, it's called Forward Thinkers of the Game.

It's brought to you by Workday where we talk about the football players who we think are going to bring something fresh to the field. when the season kicks off.

Like Ashton Gentry. Ashton Gentry. I can barely speak on the Raiders.

Small... But powerful, crazy running back, plays three downs, might be the best fantasy football running back by the end of the year.

He's one of them. Could Drake May. Could he be the next Josh Allen?

Could he take Josh Allen and become Josh Allen 2.0?

Might happen. Could Agbuka on the Buccaneers... eventually become the most reliable rookie receiver, maybe one of the most reliable receivers in the league.

You never know. That's why we played this season because, uh, We get to find this stuff out in real time.

When you're a forward thinker, the only thing you're afraid of is business as usual.

Workday is the AI platform. That transforms the way you manage people and money today so you can transform tomorrow.

Workday, moving business forever forward.

Learn more at workday.com. Coming back, I had my first old guy mistake at the end of the last segment.

I called it the AFC Central. Has it ever been the AFC Central?

Well, Boomer, you call it whatever you want.

Yeah, it was. Like way back, right? I'm not crazy.

Houston Oilers. Sadly, it's now called the AFC North.

Baltimore, 11 and a half is the over. They are minus 155 to win the division.

A number that kind of doesn't seem... risky enough I almost feel like they should be like two to one plus 350 for the conference plus 650 for the Super Bowl plus 340 for the one seed.

They were 12 and five last year. My question to you, Is this just the James Harden Rockets, this Ravens team?

Great regular season every year. A lot of stats, super fun, very unique with Lamar.

And then in the playoffs, something happens.

It might be, but it was James Harden's fault, right?

It's not Lamar's fault. At least not last year.

Like Josh Allen, if you look. By the way, between 2020 and 2024... the best five-year run for any team without winning a Super Bowl, Buffalo and Baltimore.

And it's unfair to give them shit for the shortcomings.

42 touchdowns, four interceptions. We gave him shit for two years ago when they absolutely crushed our bank accounts?

We could do that. Or when he took his shit.

He left the game to take his shit. But the margin's so thin.

It's always like a toe in bounds or Andrews drops an easy ball.

Like, when is that going to end, right? Maybe this is a year, but we're just talking over-unders here, right?

Well, Mallory, somebody took them in our ringer fantasy draft.

Mallory Rubin, Giant Ravens fan. She kind of winced.

And she was like, ooh, that's somebody who's not following the offseason.

They did draft Malachi Starks. Their pass rush still looks pretty weak.

They did not lose really any games to injury last year.

Did you see that one? Yep. They had by far the fewest in the league.

And then the other thing, if you're going to worry about them, is just that Justin Tucker thing is officially over.

That stability of, I mean, it was really ending last year.

Right. The stability of having these awesome special teams, home field, moving to a slightly different.

Oh, but he sucked last year. He did. Yeah.

But it's just like you have to factor that in now where the special teams are always lights out.

Now they're not. Yeah, but I think that's a good trade-off between injury luck and bad kicker luck.

Special teams... So I like Mike Green, their second round pick from Marshall.

He had 17 sacks last year. A little troubled.

That's probably why he went in the second round.

Yeah, but he could be good. I mean, this it's all like, you know, they have five playoff teams in the first six weeks before they're by.

And at that game against Buffalo in Buffalo, that's Ohio state, Texas to start. next Sunday.

Right. And that's, doesn't get better than that.

It's incredible. Yeah. I had them as at 30. for points so my weird wacky what oh my weird ranky 30 wins this year that's my weird player coach draft system yeah that helped me do really well last year so i had them even one point higher than the bills um And as you said, they it looked like they hit their draft a little bit.

So there if you're going to ding them, At some point there, Henry's getting old.

I don't know. Is this like a LeBron thing?

This just keeps going until he's 40, but he looked awesome last year.

Yeah. I just don't see any scenario where they don't win this division.

I'm with you. I have them at 11 wins. Would you have them at?

I have them at 12 and 5. Okay. And I have them as an over.

And you could even talk me into 13 and 4.

I think them or Buffalo finishes 13 and 4.

And I'm leaning toward... Maybe Buffalo being the one that does that.

So one thing with their schedule, the AFC North plays the East and the NFC North.

Mm-hmm. And then they also play Casey Houston and the Rams.

Tough. They have, uh, they have the Thanksgiving game, their home against, uh, Cincinnati and Thanksgiving.

There's a little easy stretch they have here where they go week 12 jets. home Bengals home Steelers home at Bengals Pat's home and it comes like right when you would need it and I think I could see them doing the like start out two and two like they're at Bill's home lines week three, at Chiefs week four.

I could see like a two and two. Oh, what's wrong?

And then they win like their last 10 games.

Throw the Bears in that stretch too. I wrote that down.

That starts off that. that run of whether they can go four or five and oh there.

Yeah. Okay. Next team, the Bengals. So going back to our kind of can't believe they missed the playoffs list. which, oh wait, I didn't talk about that yet.

So last year, if you put everybody from basically even odds to plus 160, Last year, we had four teams on this list that missed the playoffs with plus odds.

Miami plus 128. The Jets plus 138. Atlanta plus 152.

And Dallas plus 164. Ugh. where you're like, ah, I kind of can't believe they missed it.

The year before there were three teams and the year before there was one.

I have a bunch of possibilities here, including Cincinnati, who is a plus one 18.

And, uh, I have them right around the seven seed, but not quite.

Either eight, nine, nine, and eight. Their over-under is nine and a half.

I'm under, Sal. I wanted to be under because I hate that everybody loves this team, and it's kind of the same thing over and over.

They lose that first week. It doesn't matter if they played, but they lost to the Patriots.

They lost to the Browns one game. you know, inferior teams the first week.

We got a whiff of their offensive line again.

Remember that when it just disappears? We got that in preseason.

I know you don't want to give that, you know, Too much credit, but, you know, last year they scored 26 a game and allowed 26 a game.

So it could be that other than the quarterback and receivers, and Hendrickson everything could be bad that's absolutely a case that could happen I had this question for you Did the Bengals achieve true perfection as a perfect fantasy team guys team with no chance of being a real life playoff threat?

Interesting. This team is destined to be 8 or 9 or 9 and 8.

Their defense is going to be terrible. We just know it's going to be bad.

They're going to be in shootouts all the time.

Burrow, if he stays healthy, will, I think, be the best stats quarterback He's top four, right?

Nobody can get into that top four for years, I think.

How many years has it been? Daniels, maybe.

If Daniels goes 12-5 again this year, I think he enters the combo.

This hurts right there. I don't think anyone breaks that anytime soon.

So people were like, well... well, their D might be better this year.

What's the evidence? They're 31st last year in defense, but they had a way easier schedule last year.

Yeah. They played the following quarterbacks last year.

Jacoby Brissett, Danny Dimes, Jameis, Deshaun, Minshew, Ritter, Thompson-Robinson, Your guy, Cooper Rush, Mason Rudolph, Will Levis, Andy Dalton, and Russell Wilson.

And they were 31st in defense. Right. And they're like, yeah, we drafted Shamar Stewart.

It's going to be a little bit better. Is it?

I think I want to change my pick now. You can change it.

I don't know. I want you to be right. I want us to do really well.

See, what I did is what you don't do. I go through everything.

I did that this year because you made me feel bad.

No, I didn't do that. I didn't go through every match.

But your shit added up. I did. I think mine added up.

I'm proud of you. Good. Because last year you put like three teams in the Super Bowl or something.

It worked. I was 27 and five. Maybe I should have not counted.

Uh, they have a new DC, this guy, Al Golden.

He was a, is the DC for Notre Dame. So Adiromo or Adiromo, I'm going to say it wrong.

Louie Adiromo. Louie Adiromo. Yeah. It was good once just, uh, I don't know.

Remember Lombardi doing 15-minute monologues about how great Louie Anarumo was?

He's got a job. They fired him. They end easy at Miami, Arizona, and Cleveland.

They better go 2-0 against Cleveland and Jacksonville.

Otherwise, we know what we're getting there.

But I'm reluctantly taking 10 wins. They got Slayton to beef up their run to you a tiny bit, but it still looks like a team that can't stop the run.

Their offensive line... is bottom five in the rankings.

It's like a legit bottom five offensive line, which is fine because Burrow's great, but there's real health things with him too.

And that was the other thing. Like, He's just going to get the shit kicked out of him again.

And I don't want to bank on them winning 10 games with the offensive line and the defense.

I'm not doing it. Warren sharp. Let's give him a shout out.

Cause we do steal a couple of those things.

Worst run support 30 at success rate, worst run support.

Like everyone's drafting chase Brown in the third round.

Like, Interesting that they had the third.

Is it counting the sacks as negative yards or something?

I don't know. 30th defense, 32nd O-line pass block rate the last four years, which you mentioned.

They're at Cleveland week one, home Jags week two.

Got to win both. Perfect. Yeah. Except they start out slow every year.

Right. So this is like the, you know, the two people staring at each other.

I'll keep it at 10. I'm not. I want credit, though, if it goes under.

I only had four guys... with points for them in my ranking system.

Burrow was an eight. Chase was a five. Higgins was a three and Hendrickson was a three.

Yeah. I had a minus one for the offensive line and they were an 18 with four people.

The only one that was like, Almost as lopsided was the Niners where they just have like five good guys and a great coach and nothing else.

Right, right. So it's like a classic Stars and Scrubs team.

The only thing I'll say is they were 4-7 in one score games last year.

Maybe they could turn that around. They did lose a couple dumb games, but you also lose dumb games when your defense sucks.

Dumb team, yeah. Pittsburgh, a team that every year I just blindly buy into the Tomlin thing.

They are over... Eight and a half. Of course it's eight and a half.

Can they just make it eight and a half? Yeah.

Make it the Tomlin total. Like we have the Jeff Fisher eight and eight.

He gets those numbers. The Tomlin total.

Yeah. Let's Fandle make it eight and a half next year too.

Like that's it. Five to one for the division.

Plus 134 to make the playoffs. Under six and a half wins plus 240.

Just want to point that out. They're 10 and seven last year, but cratered down the stretch.

Right. The big question, will Aaron Rodgers, not only just will he be good, but will he finish the season?

Is he playing football in mid-December? For you.

I think he does. Because he's annoying that way.

And I kind of think he's the perfect... quarterback for this team like I love that Pittsburgh that Steelers special right which is like you bet they're losing at half and they win the game and it cashed five times last year yeah And it's like plus 600, plus 500, plus 600 every week.

He's perfect for that. He gets off to such a slow start.

He gets sacked. He had such garbage time numbers last year.

So he's kind of like, he was 30th in sacks taken.

First to third quarter, number 30 EPA. Fourth quarter, number six EPA.

This is your guy, Steelers. It may not have looked good in the rebuild, but that's what's going to happen, I think.

I wrote down I think it would be one of the great over 40 achievements in any sport if this team goes like 10 and 7 and he's actually pretty good.

I don't see it though. I, the offensive line, they got, I think first year starters on both tackles.

Yeah. The skill position guys, like we just did a fantasy draft.

Nobody was like clamoring to get Steelers, right?

Warren was like, People try to talk to him.

You even took Caleb Johnson. Maybe you got lucky with Caleb Johnson.

Yeah, because they got the two tight ends.

They have Friar Muth and then they got Johnny Smith.

Who, by the way, might be the best. that the Dolphins had but we'll see you look at his stats and like the Patriots had him he was awful like he had this crazy weird career year for the Dolphins I don't know what's legitimate about it yeah And then Metcalf, who seems like just a bizarre fit with Rodgers.

The only case you could make for them to get to nine wins is the defense.

If the defense is really good again, which I have a feeling it's going to take a little bit of a step back because it's older.

How many do you have? They played Cleveland twice.

They play Indy, Fields, Sam Darnold, J.J.

McCarthy, Drake Mag, Caleb, and Tua. So they play two of the three bad quarterback teams three times.

Yeah. And they play a bunch of young quarterbacks.

And could their defense... Could they get a couple of those dumb wins?

I'm leaning more toward... I just think the schedule's harder.

The defense is going to be a little worse.

And the way they finished the year last year, to me, this feels like a...

Just kind of a, man, this is depressing.

Blah, Steelers season. Well, I just can't move them off that number.

I think they're 8-8 going into that last week.

So are you going over or under? I'm going under.

I think they lose. I went under. to Baltimore week 18 or whatever it is.

And, and that's that on January 4th. I mean, they really have to get out of the gates.

They have to win that jets game. Because their last four, I think they have Baltimore times two, Buffalo, Detroit, and Cleveland, whatever.

Their second half of their season, they got a night game and week 10 against the chargers home bangles at bears home bills at Ravens home dolphins, Monday night at lions at Browns Ravens.

Yeah. So there's two easy ones out of nine weeks there.

Um, From a talent standpoint, I had five chippers for them, including Watt, who's still a four.

People seem to like their draft a little bit, but I just don't see any weapons for them.

It's going to be another 16 to 13 type thing, but I don't think they're offensive.

I just, I should have said this sooner. I just don't think Rogers wants to get hit anymore.

Yeah. That was the guy we watched last year.

And we see this, you and I always bet this with boxing and UFC when guys hit a certain point.

Right. And they just... They don't want to take the risks the same way.

And I don't know how you play quarterback.

That O-line's got to be good. He's not running for anything.

I don't think it's going to be good. I mean, you know, they get Metcalf and everything, but they lost...

Nobody loves them in fantasy, really. They love Najee and Pickens.

Those guys had 67 red zone targets. By far the best top of the team's positions last year.

Well, if you talk to a Steelers fan, and thank God we don't know any Steelers fans.

Thank God we don't know one of them. That's how we did it.

They had the GM from the 2019 to 22, their drafts are like really bad.

It was like a meme going around on Twitter somewhere where they took Pickett first.

They took Najee Harris in the first round.

They have like just swings. They traded a first round pick for Minka Fitzpatrick.

He's gone. Yep. So these are all the guys that would be like your, you know, the stars of your team now, and they don't really have those guys anymore.

So then these guys in their thirties and that's it.

And yet, it's just like an experiment because they're going to be 8-8 going into that last game.

I know. I have them under. Okay. Last team, the Cleveland Browns.

Over, under 4.5. Yeah, fourth place is minus 240.

I think those are the best odds for fourth place or the highest odds of anybody.

Playoffs plus 880. Last year, they were 314. will this ever not be the dumbest team in the league?

Like even the Travis Hunter trade, good trade.

Right. Trade it. You move back three spots.

You took Mason Graham. You got all these picks.

And then they just fucking lose their minds.

They take the wrong Ohio State running back who isn't even on the roster. you're taking Henderson who's I forgot to mention when we talked about the Patriots but he looks like he's going to be a star a good kick returner sure No, he's going to be a star.

He's going to be a three down back. The Pats have speed with Diggs and Henderson.

I think people don't really realize. Anyway, they could add...

Henderson, they, they opt into the sugar soap opera for reasons that remain unclear.

They're picking the quarterback. Yeah. After picking another quarterback, um, It's just a bizarre team.

And I don't understand... Stefanski I think we all like yeah the media nerds seem to like Andrew Barry how are you this stupid every year it has to be the owner I was driving over here and I was like, damn it.

How did I give them? I gave them five wins, which puts it over.

But I was like, how the... Did you change your mind?

This is a team... They signed Bailey Zappi today.

Yeah. Two weeks ago, they signed Snoop Huntley.

And these guys have... excellent chance to start like week five right instead it's Flacco who like you know I have did you see the Flacco Dylan Gabriel photo yeah where it looked like Dr. Evil and Mini-Me yeah it's great And by the way, they want Chador Sanders to be good.

You pointed it out. This team has not made a good decision in decades.

Of course they want their, where they got Shador Sanders, all this nonsense that they're putting the shitty offensive linemen out there with them.

They want to look foolish with the Shador thing too?

No. Let's get crazy. So they start with, Bengals, Ravens, Packers, and Lions, and then they're off to London.

Let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say 0-4.

Yeah. Bengals at Ravens, Packers at Lions, Vikings in London.

Can we go 0-5? Yeah. At Steelers week six, can we just make it an 0-6 right there?

What game are they winning out of this? They're not going to outscore the Bengals.

I think they'll win something stupid like at Vegas or something.

You're crazy. I am hard under for them. All right.

So you think they're in the running for worst team of the year?

Yeah, first pick. I think them or New Orleans.

And that's the other thing with this is who's going to start tanking when we get.

Right. closer I just think wow I don't know why I had I did like Mason Graham I wouldn't have been upset if the Pats got him but you know him and Garrett that's a little something but to not to not have your second round pick To do this Hunter trade, but then not end up with the 36 pick.

Like, what are you doing? It's outrageous.

And they're going to get things like $80 million next year or re-restructured.

Watson, who's never... Does Watson take another snap for this team?

I don't think so. I gave them a minus two for quarterbacks.

Wow. Judy, Njoku, Garrett, and Ward were the only guys that got points.

Did you know about the Belly Zappy signing when you did that?

Or maybe you didn't know. Can I do a minus three?

Vikings, Browns, London. is a classic We Hate You, England game.

Terrible. That might be one of the worst ones.

Where are the Jags? Are they not allowed in London anymore?

No, they have one game, I think. They must be going, right?

Don't they? They have one game. They just don't have the back-to-back.

Oh, yeah, they're going week seven. Yeah.

London's like, can you just push it later?

That was dumb. But I think you can get under five and a half still, right? for almost the same.

Yeah, with some juice. Well, I'm going under four and a half.

All right. Let's take another break and then we'll do the AFC set.

Let's do it. This episode is brought to you by Lionsgate.

Prepare for the long walk, a grueling tale from master storyteller Stephen King.

50 boys enter a walking contest with one winner, no finish line.

The task is simple. Walk or die. How far could you go for fame, for fortune, for family, for your life?

Written for the screen by J.T. Molnar and directed by Francis Lawrence, starring David Johnson, Cooper Hoffman. and Mark Hamill.

The Long Walk, rated R, only in theaters September 12th.

This episode is brought to you by Wayfair.

Your home is more than a space. It's where you express yourself.

Like we've all got our game day set up, right?

I'm all about the viewing experience and the entertaining.

So I got my sofa in optimum viewing position.

And I got my grill and patio set up for halftime or after the game.

Whatever your vibe, Wayfair is the trusted destination for all things home.

They've got all your home essentials, storage solutions, decor, and more all in one place.

Get inspired with room ideas and curated collections. all with everyday ways to save.

Shop everything home at wayfair.com with free and easy delivery straight to your door.

That is W-A-Y-F-A-I-R.com. Wayfair. Every style.

Every home. AFC South. Everyone and their brother is Houston winning this thing, and yet their over-under is only nine and a half wins.

The AFC South is not a good division. They are minus 150 for the playoffs.

13-1 would be the one seed. 12-1 if you want to get excited about CJ Stroud plus their defense and maybe they get lucky with some Some rookie receivers that they have.

There's a Joe Mixon situation that everybody who plays fantasy has been on all summer. he's out for the first four games doesn't look like we're seeing him this year it seems like he has a fucked up foot Chubb's there they just have a bunch of they're basically like what your Dallas running back room last year Sorry.

That's true. Here's my question. Can they have the best defense in the league?

I took them in our ringer fantasy league.

I took them in Philly as the two defenses.

They put the AFC South six times. Just go 6-0 against the AFC South.

Yeah. Go 6-0. You just go 6-0. You go 4-7 against everyone else.

You're 10-7. Yeah, I mean, they did a nice job with D'Amico Ryans with the defense last year and then, you know, Danelle Hunter now and Stingley.

I think they're going to be all right. Will Anderson and those are good bookends for edge rushers there.

So they have a decent offensive line, but Well, they traded Tunsil and they seemed like they were okay with trading Tunsil.

Right. Which is weird. Yeah, there was Tunsil and Diggs.

Those were the big ones, I guess. But...

Here's the thing. They weren't very good last year.

The best game was that playoff game that they lost, right?

And CJ Stroud, I mean, you don't have to believe me.

They moved down big time in primetime games.

What was it like? Right. They had five.

Now they have two or something like that.

Their takeaways, like you said, defense is what kept them in the games.

So this offense was not smart. They have a new OC, a new lineman, and they have a new wide receiver in there that threw in there.

I don't know. He was sacked 52 times. Second worst.

So hopefully this offensive line thing works out, but I don't put them at 10.

I have them over at 10 and 7. And really just because of the division.

But I have them barely over. And I actually think they...

I think that's good value that it's only nine and a half because I think this, especially with the Indianapolis quarterback situation, I just don't know who else is going to step up against them.

Schedule is a little sneaky hard. The AFC South plays the West and they play the NFC West.

They play both West. Yeah. which technically there's no bad teams out of those eight, but then it's, it's, it's crossed off by the fact that they're in the AFC Rams and bucks to start as two division winners and they have to go to Baltimore early on five of the last six are indoors so that's that's good for them but I think it's a stay away, but I'll go under and I'll give him nine wins.

Going under? Yep. nine wins. Okay. Uh, I had them 21 for points, including, uh, Six guys on defense.

Anderson, Hunter, Stingley, Lassiter, Bullock, and Petrae.

Their secondary, if you're doing like best units, their secondary is the best secondary in either conference.

And they have the pass rush. And Will Anderson still has one level to go.

Their defense might be awesome this year.

There's about three or four teams we could do this for.

You already did them for one. These are the quarterbacks they've played.

Last year. Yeah, last year. Rush, Rudolph, Levis, Richardson times two.

Drake May, Caleb Williams, Mack Jones, and Tua.

So their defense is going to look pretty good after those.

Right. This year, other than the AFC South, I mean...

Yeah, definitely a little bit harder this year.

They have a couple of tough road games too, like at Seahawks on a Monday night and stuff like that at the Ravens.

I, uh, I'd be surprised if they didn't get to 10 wins.

But if they got to nine, I'd still probably win the division.

I have Jacksonville as the second place team in this division.

Until about two weeks ago. What happened to you?

We'll get to the team that I actually have over them.

Jacksonville over seven and a half. That's what you need to do.

The division's plus 290. They were 4-13 last year, so... Plus 172 to make the playoffs this year.

Um... I wrote this down. They're paying Trevor Lawrence $55 million a year and they don't have their 2026 first.

Is this an NBA team? No. This is like, they might as well be owned by Matt Ishbia.

Mm-hmm. Yeah. Completely overpaying somebody who's not in the top 20 in his position.

And he's taking up a giant part. It's basically the Bradley Beal deal.

Yeah. And then trading all this stuff for Hunter.

And they're like, yeah, we don't know how many snaps he's going to play.

It's like, you didn't figure this out before you traded like a fucking entire draft to get this guy?

He might... We'll play it by ear? Really?

I think this team does well for this owner that everybody hates.

And it's hard to say that this is a prove it year for Lawrence.

He's 26, which is about the age everybody comes into the league.

Well, he's got his money already, so it's not like he's put up or shut up.

They have new GM, new coaches, Liam Cohen.

I mean, listen, much as you hate this team, you're the only fantasy owner in the country who has three Jaguars. a lot of squat.

Well, you know, I love Thomas Jr. Yeah. All right.

Bigsby was the end of the draft and Lawrence was just whack-a-mole with, with $1 quarterbacks.

Yeah. He had a lot of, a lot of, and then look, he, He played 10 games last year.

They weren't good. They were 3-10 at one score games under Peterson.

They have the sixth easiest strength of schedule now.

It's tough to start. Sounds like you're tucking yourself in and over.

They're winning the division. How about that?

The last six are Colts times two Titans plus two 90 and the jets.

There you go. Take it Jags. You could turn things around this division fairly quickly.

And don't forget, before last year, they had back-to-back nine win years, so.

First of all, first rule, don't trust the AFC South.

Second rule, you hate the Jaguars. I don't know if anyone's complained about them more than you, except for maybe me.

Right. Yeah. Because I had Lawrence and fantasy, but I mean, how many times did we talk ourselves into bed in a stupid London?

I hate this division. You made us make a bet.

I was like, let's not pick any of the Souths until November.

We're already like two AFC South bets in.

I know, but. We'll see. From a talent standpoint, I only had Thomas, Heinz Allen, Olakun, and Campbell.

Plus, if anyone hits in their draft. But it's not exactly like... You have the Colts better than that?

No, the Colts I have right there. Okay. So...

The X factor, obviously, is Hunter. Can Liam Cohen fix Lawrence?

Who knows? All right, we'll do pie chart.

What percent of the pie chart is Hunter's just incredible?

And playing both sides. And he's an awesome receiver and he's a lockdown quarterback.

So like a 10% chance. I don't even think that much.

I don't think that much. I don't think they draft a defensive player.

He's a good defensive player and has a couple of Dion-ish wide receiver plays, but not a ton.

I thought that trade was crazy. Yeah, probably.

I don't like that trade. Especially a team that doesn't have a lot of talent to do that.

That's like, it's just a bonkers trade. I mean, we're doing over-unders for this year, though.

It's probably a bad trade for 2026 and beyond.

I feel safe going under with them. I have them at 6-11.

10-7, baby. Yeah, I went under. Okay, Indianapolis.

A team that I was over... Until the way the quarterback situation was handled the last few weeks, I'm like, what am I doing?

So they're over seven and a half. Division plus 340.

Playoffs plus 198. And honestly, I wrote down that the QB situation already ruined their season.

I think that's very possible. Could Indy be ready for the reset button triple crown in January?

Coach QB, GM. Might be like the complete house cleaning.

It feels like that's where we're heading.

Interesting. Owner, too. Rest in peace. I guess that already happened.

I don't know. They seem to be taking shit for... naming Daniel Jones the starter for the season, whereas they could have just said, we're starting week one with Daniel Jones.

But it's clear that he is their starter.

It's clear they've quit on Richardson. Yeah, I mean, look, he had 13 starts in an era where these guys, Bo Nix and Dylan Gabriel, have like 40, 50 starts before they come in.

So that was tough. He took himself out of the game, which I think... you know, sealed his fate.

Like, right. Like, well, does this guy want to play?

Like, no, he just told you he doesn't want to play.

He sat out. So it's been a little injury prone.

Yeah. And then, uh, He's one of the most erratic passers.

Shoulder, hip, concussions, all of it, yeah.

What's funny is I was reading up on that draft because I was like, what was the team that I was trying to trade up from?

I couldn't remember. It was Minnesota. Oh, right, right, right.

Godfather offered them for four and they wouldn't do it.

Mm-hmm. Think about that. Sometimes the best move is the one that falls through in the end.

The other thing that's weird about this team, the receivers and the weapons don't match who they've settled on a quarterback, but then that Alex Pierce, who's like a great deep threat, right.

Downs. And like, you want to like kind of wing the ball with this team a little bit, but it's Danny dimes.

Danny Dimes. Yeah. Well, they match Richardson.

That's the one thing he could do. He could sling it.

Yeah. But now it's, yeah, you're right. It's a whole different ballgame.

During the 10 minutes when I was thinking, trying to talk to myself and then picking them as a seven seed, I called a Giants fan friend of mine and I was like, how bad was Dimes last year?

And he was like completely different guy from 22 when he wasn't even awesome in 22.

And he's like, he was so bad. We put in DeVito for him.

Right. DeVito just got waived. Yep. He's on the Patriots now.

He's probably our backup. Wait a minute.

Wait a minute. You're right. Oh my God. That's breaking news.

What? DeVito on the Patriots. It was broke two hours ago.

Look at that ring. Look at those flowers.

Your gym teacher's dating your butcher. I don't know.

I'm trying to make it like it's a Taylor thing.

It's okay. By the way, Josh Jobs, the ball was sailing all over the place in the preseason, and DeVito is actually probably better than him.

You're going to see him a lot. Are you... I'm going way under.

I think they have a shot to be the worst team.

I have four wins. And, you know, I'm running for...

I mean, they end at Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville, and at Houston.

Nothing's going to be easy. They lost Friesen Kelly on the offensive line.

That's tough to replace. That's the thing is they used to have this awesome O-line.

Yeah. And they just don't anymore. Right.

So the one thing where we're like, well, at least I'll be able to block.

They can't do that. And they haven't won a season open in 11 years, and they start home against Miami and then play in Denver.

This could be a disaster. Tyler Warren, I think we like.

I do like him. Yeah. I also like the under five and a half wins at plus 250.

I have them at five and 12. Okay. I don't see a situation where this team shocks us, but this is a team that fits the profile.

Whoa, nobody believed in this. Danny Dimes is back.

It's just like we saw him play last year.

What are we going to do with this coach, though?

Steigen? Yeah, I mean, he's another one.

I think he's top three for first fired. Oh, good point.

I didn't even think of that. Yeah. So how would you rank him?

And he's got Lou Anarumo there too. Mike, we're all going to die.

McCarthy, number one. McDaniel, right? Mike McDaniel, number one.

Yeah. Mike McCarthy already got fired. Well, he didn't get fired.

He just got unrenewed. They kept him around just long enough so they couldn't talk to Belichick or Vrabel or any of those guys.

That was great. Smart. Got career assistant Brian Schottenheimer.

So McDaniel number one, would you put Steichen two?

McDaniel one maybe Steichen two because that's a good move by the GM to be like hey Richardson was a good pick this guy fucked it up right Hold on.

Zach Taylor. Would you put Zach Taylor? Well, you don't put, you don't have day ball in there at all, huh?

I like the Giants, but I guess he belongs just because the Giants fans actually have hope.

So if they stop coming out of the gate, then he gets fired. canalis and taylor i mean taylor i don't think anyone benefits from their good quarterback as much as zach taylor i know that guy could be trashed Last team in the division, Tennessee, over a six and a half.

So here's where I really struggled, Sal.

And I almost picked Tennessee to make the playoffs.

And spoiler alert, I did not. I absolutely cannot believe they made the playoffs list. which basically is three to one odds and up.

Last year, we had three teams that made the playoffs.

Minnesota plus 285, Washington plus 310, Denver plus 540.

Three teams. Year before, Rams plus 285, Indy plus 350, Tampa plus 360, Houston plus 520.

Four teams. Year before, 22. Jacksonville plus 450, Seattle 5-1.

That tells me we're going to have at least two teams from the following list.

Vegas, Tennessee, Jets, Giants, Saints, Browns.

All those have odds three to one or worse.

And Tennessee is a candidate. Tennessee is plus 390.

And here's how I try to talk myself into it.

It is a classic. What if Kim Ward is just good right away?

It's CJ Stroud. It's Jade Daniels. He's just immediately good.

I don't know if you've read the stories about he getting in a fight with Jeffrey Simmons.

He's showing up at five in the morning. Everybody's in there.

He's just like a leader of men. He's checking a lot of my boxes.

The problem is we watched them last year.

We watched them go two and 15 against the spread.

We watched one of the worst coach teams in the decade.

Worst special teams definitely in the decade.

Yeah. And I can't back the coach. And that's why my train got off.

And they play the AFC West and the NFC West, right?

So you're not going to get outside of your division.

You're not going to get too many players.

Plus the Texans. Plus the Texans. And I'm with you.

Like, there's never once... Have we seen a guy so undervalued, a number one overall pick?

Like, go through it since we've been watching football forever.

Caleb, Bryce, Trevor, Kyler, Jared, Jameis.

Andrew Luck, Cam Newton. Just like buzz about a guy.

It's insane. He has this sneak up on you factor.

He really does. He doesn't get sacked a lot.

That's what you like out of a... I think you got sacked like three or four times at Miami last year in college.

But... You know, they have no units in the top half.

That's a thing. It sounds like their offensive line might be better.

Mm-hmm. And they feel like I did a deep, deep, deep dive.

And they're like, we figured out the offensive line.

It's okay. It might be pretty good. And they have what?

They added Jefferson and Lockett, and they have Ridley.

Ridley's like their blue chipper, so... So the case against them, zero pass rush.

They probably, other than Simmons, it's the worst front seven in the league.

Bet no receivers beyond Ridley. And... I guess you could say that the special teams can't be worse.

Mm-hmm. I just can't get there with the coach.

I really wanted to. I wanted to try it. It's like, why would this team, like if they had Mike McDonald as their coach with Cam Ward, I would be like, I'm in.

Nine and eight. Seven seed. Let's go. Bad division.

Let's ride this. But... this is not a Dan Quinn with Jaden Daniels situation.

This is not like having Vrabel with Drake May.

I just can't do it. Did you give him six wins?

Did you give him six or seven? I did. I went hard over.

Yeah. 7-10. I thought about 9-8. Yeah. All right.

Well, I am 6, and that's a pretty good improvement from 3.

But 6 is under. Oh, all right. They're going to double their wins.

They were 2-6 in one score game. You're under for the Titans.

Was it 6-1? Yeah. This one's in the middle, 5-1, 6-1.

So whatever you want to call it. Yeah. I'm giving them six.

All right, so you're under. All right. Because I had over six and a half plus 115.

Want to do one last check? Let's do it.

Just to make this, this could be big because if it's five and a half, that's good for both of us.

Really exciting stuff right now. Going to the FanDuel site.

No one can be watching. People watching?

No, people are definitely, they love this.

All right. FanDuel has the win totals. You can go right to Tennessee.

So look, look what happens here. You have under what?

Oh. Oh, it moved. We can do this. Great job.

It's a five and a half. It's a five and a half now.

This is great. I'm glad we did that. Over five and a half.

So we're both over. Okay. We're both over.

Minus five and a half is minus 140. It changed.

No, no, no. We're sticking with that. So mark that at home.

Sal, I'm glad. I'm glad we're aligned on this.

Good. Let's be on the same page. All right.

That was such a riveting segment. We're going to have to take a break.

This episode is brought to you by Prime.

Prime delivery is fast. How fast are we talking?

We're talking a cooler for your snacks, a folding chair, a Bluetooth speaker, and a six pack of your favorite seltzer. delivered by tomorrow.

Fast. Oh yeah. Extra napkins, last minute guac bowls, backup phone chargers, even a replacement remote.

Fast. I feel like I've ordered all of those things.

We're talking everything you need for game day.

Fast. Fast free delivery. It's on Prime.

This episode is brought to you by the Home Depot.

Labor Day savings are happening right now at the Home Depot so you can get more out of your outdoor space this fall.

The Home Depot has a wide selection of cordless outdoor power equipment that makes it easy to clear your lawn. starting at just $79.

You gotta love a power tool. Then why not make those colors pop? with string lights and mums that bloom all season long.

Shop Labor Day Savings now through September 3rd only at The Home Depot.

The AFC West is here. Kansas City is here as usual.

This one I really struggled with when I saw my notes from this.

The absolutely I cannot believe they missed the playoffs list.

Missed the playoffs. Oh, the list. Yeah.

Philadelphia plus 270, KC plus 285, Baltimore plus 390, and Buffalo plus 520.

So why am I listing those teams? Because every year for at least the last three, somebody from a list like that missed the playoffs.

San Francisco last year. Last year, San Francisco.

Year before, Cincinnati, plus 225. Year before, Green Bay, plus 360.

History tells us somebody's going to miss the list.

Somebody from this list will miss the playoffs.

I don't think it's going to be Philadelphia.

I don't think it's going to be Buffalo. I don't think it's going to be Baltimore.

And I don't want to pick the Chiefs. So I think the streak ends.

But I just wanted to flag it. It's fine.

Good. I just wanted to flag it. If, if one of those four missed the playoffs, I think it would be the chiefs, but come on chiefs over under 11 and a half.

Division minus 105. Number one seed plus 380.

And playoffs is minus 375. They're 8-1 to win the Super Bowl.

If you look at every metric, this team should not have won 15 games.

This team probably shouldn't have won 11 games.

The nerds were outraged by this thing. Oh, yeah.

I think it was the biggest disparity between what the record should have been and what it was ever. their 22nd and red zone offense, uh, you know, it's a futile exercise, right?

Cause they're not the best team. They know how to close.

I feel like I, I've had three kids already, and I know how, and that's going to be it.

I was so surprised that the doctor would come in the very last minute.

Like, where's the doctor? Like, they're just there.

Oh, he comes in like Mahomes. Yeah, it's Mahomes.

It really is. He's 11 and 0 in one score game.

Comes in with brand new snip stuff. Yeah.

Yeah. 15 wins going into week 18. Like, it's crazy.

That is funny. The doctor is like Marion Rivera.

Yeah. Think they should have music? Yeah, I think so.

Oh, that's good. Entrance music? I remember being like, where is this guy or gal?

I have no idea. So, yeah. So, I mean, yeah.

They're an enigma. They lose Tooney. You know, Taylor wasn't great.

They had Dylan Moore on the offensive line and Josh Simmons in the draft.

Josh Simmons seems big. Yeah. Yeah. So...

I'm going to put them at 11, man. I think that's under.

My question for you with the Chiefs. Did Mahomes kind of need to be Clubber Langdon that Super Bowl?

Mm-hmm. that he needed because he wasn't very good last year for him.

I mean, yeah, I think he was 6th in MVP.

Imagine that. 15 wins, 6th in MVP. Yeah.

And that's the thing. When I was struggling with who to put at the top of the QB pyramid, and Mahomes is just blinding because he's at the Super Bowls, but I was like, he definitely wasn't one of the best QBs last year.

And even like, if you look at the deep passing stats for him, he was terrible with deep ball.

And you could say like, well, his receivers and rice and he, you make excuses for it.

But he just wasn't good last year. Yep. For him.

Mm-hmm. So did he need to be clever length?

Yeah. You know, there's that whole metric where the losing team in the Superbowl, that's when you write them off for the next year.

So maybe that's why they, fit in. But I just think they're so used to being in these games with two minutes left.

They're so they're every single time they don't lose at home.

Like I said, eight, no, it doesn't matter that they have the worst explosive play rate in the league and that they're You know, I mean, I think you give the defense credit.

That guy, he'll never get. Your guy Spagnuolo.

Spagnuolo will never get enough credit. He just won't, you know.

Well, you know what else isn't getting enough credit?

How brutal their schedule is from a travel standpoint.

Yeah. The AFC West looked out. They got the AFC South.

They got the NFC East. Right? Pretty good.

They got the worst division in the AFC and the second worst in the NFC.

Yep. but they're playing Buffalo, Baltimore and Detroit.

They have eight, I repeat, eight non-traditional weekly games, night, Christmas, or Europe.

One of them's Dallas, so don't worry about it.

Yeah, yeah. Start their season in San Paulo.

They have a Sunday night game. They have a Monday night game.

They have a Thanksgiving game. They have a Sunday game.

They have a Christmas game. And maybe even a Sunday night game.

Who knows? But that always makes me nervous when the schedule is crazy like that.

Yeah, it doesn't. I don't like it. I almost feel like they're worse off when they went to Carolina last year and they won that game.

When they're on Sunday at 1 p.m. Eastern. the one or two times a year.

That's kind of when they have weird mojo.

No rice for the first six games. He took the suspension.

So, to your point, they only have two hard road games.

But I think this is... I think it's a fascinating Allen season, but I also think it's a fascinating Mahomes season because...

This was like... He let control of the steering wheel a little bit last year.

I want to look into MVPs plus 650, which is very high for Patrick Mahomes.

I know it's... It's probably not one of our top three picks, but we do have that KCD, that CD, that money we put aside, KCD to win the Super Bowl and Mahomes MVP.

That might be running out a little. But you're right.

Like they could be one in three to start.

Chargers, Eagles, Giants, Ravens. Then at Jacksonville Monday night could be like a must win.

Well, I was trying to think of other teams that other guys that peaked in their 20s in a crazy way.

And then as they hit their 30s, it just wasn't ever quite the same.

Yeah. And I thought of Pujols. Interesting.

Remember Pujols? We were like, oh my God, this guy's Ted Williams, CrossFit.

And then he hit his 30s and it just wasn't the same anymore.

Right. I don't know if that's going to happen to Mahomes, but... If the O-line's good, he'll figure it out.

I know it's like a really simplistic way to analyze this team, but...

Well, that's a long way of me saying I'm going over.

And I think this is a Mahomes... This is a Mahomes, people are talking to me about this on the streets kind of comeback season for him.

He has more weapons. It's Kelsey's farewell season.

We're 20-4 in divisional games over the last how many years?

I don't know. The big thing for them is just having that infrastructure of just everything's the same every year, which I think probably hurt them in the Super Bowl because it's like, all right, we're back in the Super Bowl and you don't have that Oh, my God, I want to give my life for this.

But I don't know how they wouldn't go 12 and 5.

You have 12. I have 11. Is it 11 and a half?

It's 11 and a half. All right, so I'm slightly under, but I still believe in this team. win the division.

So I had them at 12. And I had them at 29 points in my point system, which ties them with, uh, Baltimore and one behind, um, Buffalo.

I have them at 12 wins. I do not have them winning the division.

Really? Yeah. Oh, man. So you must have a team doing this.

This is my big swing. Denver Broncos over nine and a half.

I've talked about them on five podcasts.

So people aren't surprised. In fact, the question is, can you become the surprise contender? when so many people think you're the surprise contender.

But I actually think they're the surprise contender.

If you would have said this last year, it would have gotten more...

This might be the everybody believes in this team, but division plus 290.

That drop, that was like plus 350 at one point.

Second place, plus 210. Playoffs, minus 130.

That used to be even. And you can go 12 plus wins, which I think they're going to get plus 310.

And I'm just all in, man. I like this team last year and there's some schedule stuff with them.

There was some Sean Payton. I finally have some of my guys, but they beefed up the defense.

They got Greenlawn, Singleton, Fanga, better running backs.

They beefed that up. They like the receivers.

Their defense last year, I know it was against some shaky teams, but they were first in defensive BPA.

They were first in sacks. Yeah. I have them on defense...

Benito, Franklin Myers, Allen, Greenlaw, Sertan, Jones, and Hufanga.

Those seven guys who got points for me on their defense.

And they have one of the best offensive lines in the league.

That's it. And you love Bo Nix. I love Bo Nix.

And we both love Sean Payton. It's like, why isn't this a 12-win team?

This is how you build a team, right? Great offensive line. solidly built, great defense.

They are exactly the opposite of the Chiefs, even though they're successful and maybe as you're predicting more successful.

Nine wins by eight or more points. Chiefs don't do that.

Seven wins by 14 or more points. They made the playoffs despite being one in six in one score games.

That's insane. Wow. The luck is going to turn around even more.

So I think you might be right. And there's a home field advantage with the altitude.

You got to factor that in. For sure. Yeah, unlike the Chargers, they have the biggest home field.

They and the Chiefs, yeah. Schedules, it's okay.

They got to go to London at one point. They're playing the Chiefs on Christmas.

They should win those first two games, Titans and Colts, right?

Yeah, just the schedules. It's not easy.

So that's why normally I would have been like, because I really feel like this is going to be this year's Lions.

I think it's like lined up for them to be really good.

But the schedule is a little harder than... um, than I would want.

Yeah. You know, you want a stat that you're going to love 16 at one and three team teasers, 10 points.

16 and one. Oh, that's the best. Peyton likes the team.

He's telling everybody he likes it. He believes in his guy, Nix.

63 sacks. They're solid. I'm only going to give them 10, but that's good enough to go over, right?

Yeah. Titans week one. At Colts week two, Danny Dimes.

That's 2-0. At Chargers week three with 55% Denver fans.

Home Bengals week four. And then at Eagles week five.

And I think that's 4-0. I think they're 4-0 going into that game.

It's a little tougher, yeah. That's pretty good, though.

LA Chargers, over is 9.5. Three to one for the division, plus 350 to finish last in the division. minus 120 for the playoffs.

They were 11-6 last year against an even easier schedule than the Broncos.

Mm-hmm. against every good defense, they did not score points.

I talked about this when I talked about Herbert a couple weeks ago on the pod where they're just like, if they're against good defense, it was between 10 and 14 points.

Slater goes down. Terrible start. They extend them and then it goes down.

We've seen enough of these seasons. When you lose a guy like that in August, I'm trying to remember when it's ever been good.

It's like, oh, despite the loss of the best guy on our team.

Right, right, right. It's just, you know, they moved Joe out over there.

They'll be able to make do with that, I guess.

But they, the one thing that was going to make them kind of special was this big, nasty offensive line.

And now it's not big and nasty. yeah um this is the most annoying team in football in the last decade out of the watchables right i'm not talking like right right this is a team like why the hell do you have 13 points the two minutes left in the third quarter.

This is crazy. He's slinging the ball. Like you said, you know, but I think they're, much better in 2023, but not as good as the world wants them.

In fact, I think this year determines if Jim Harbaugh, if this was a good move, like in just in general, they were top two in penalties.

Good coaching, you don't see that. Three of their 11 wins were against sub-500 teams like you mentioned earlier.

You thinking a little Jimmy Johnson at Miami kind of?

Yeah, maybe a little bit. Like, oh, this guy's going to be the savior, but maybe he left his magic at the other team?

Yeah, I mean, do we pencil them into making the playoffs and then just getting slaughtered in the first round?

Maybe that's their thing. They never beat the Chiefs.

They have to beat the Chiefs in Brazil. That's a home game.

They have to win that. Otherwise, this is going to be stuck.

I think I have them with nine wins. They have no true home games.

You go down their schedule, it's like, oh, Oh, well, they're definitely beating the Colts.

Well, no, the Colts might have more fans.

You can't give them a win. Well, that's the thing.

We do this every year on Guess the Lions on Sundays.

They play week four at... Oh no, that's at the Giants.

Week three, Broncos. Week five, Commanders.

We know what's going to happen in that Commanders game.

It's going to be 60% Washington fans. And maybe it'll get there someday, but we're not there yet.

And I just can't pick. I mean, Viking Steelers.

Those are home games for those teams. Look at those last five.

Philly, KC, Dallas, whatever, Houston, and Denver.

Philly. Every Philly fan we know is going to be at that game.

Right. And they travel. I know the Brazil thing makes it weird, but 37,000 miles, which is the most.

I have them with nine. I can't get them.

Can't get them to 10. I had the Broncos at 30 points in my weird ranking system.

I had the chargers at 21. So this is the best score for a team that I'm not having the playoffs, but, uh, I have them at 8-9.

I think that's where it ends. The draft was good.

Maybe Hampton's amazing. So that would be the X factor.

Hampton's amazing. They're just pounding the ball.

There's some sort of Herbert go up a level, but we just...

You know, the football nerds, they're going to stick with Herbert to the bitter end.

And we just haven't seen it. Actually, that reminded me.

I had a question for you. He is... 41-38 career.

Is that what it is? 0-2 in the playoffs.

Yeah. And now he has his built-in excuse for this year because Slater got hurt.

So the Herbert... Kool-Aid drinkers can be like, well, you lost Slater.

Nobody wants to talk about the playoff game.

We're just not allowed to talk about that anymore.

That's over there. That's like when, you know, your uncle got hammered at Christmas and, you know, shit in the corner and you're like, let's never talk about it.

It's Jimmy's father. Yeah, that is true.

Let's never talk about uncle Jimmy again.

We're just not allowed to talk about it.

Right. What happened in the past? I don't remember.

Yeah. I mean, even with a good offensive line, he had, You know, his interception rate was number 20.

His sack rate was 28. And I still think he's good.

Well, I have a new nickname for him for you.

What's that? Justin 500. Ooh. Yeah. Okay.

Yeah. I'm going Justin 500 for Justin Herbert.

I think at the end of the season. Is that a shitty NASCAR race?

Well, he's 41 and 40 career if you include the 0 and 2 in the playoffs.

I think at the end of the season, he's exactly 500.

He's 8 and 9. He'll be 50 and 50. Oh no, it would be, I'm sorry, 49 and 49.

Oh, that's great. I feel like we did this with someone once.

We did this with Shanahan for a while. Shanahan, this coach.

Every time Shanahan passed some shitty coach.

It's typically Fisher, but yeah, it's Shanahan.

That's the one. I'll say this. I was under on the Chargers before the Slater injury.

Yeah. Because I had already decided on the Broncos.

This next team, the Las Vegas Raiders...

Over 6.5. 12-1 for the division. Plus 3.30 for the playoffs.

Plus 4.40 to win 10 games. Last year, they were 4-13.

And they check a couple of the boxes. They went from Antonio Pierce.

Worst coach in the league, second to worst, third worst, in the top three worst.

The worst quarterback situation probably of anyone other than the Browns.

Now they have Geno. He's competent. Got Pete Carroll's pumped and jacked.

Pete Carroll, 17 straight seasons, seven wins or better.

They have Jenty. Yep. Who is going really high in drafts.

Major upgrades. Pierce to Carroll. And Brock Bowers.

Jenty from Madison. Gino from Minshew. And Brock Bowers, who should just get better.

Brock Barrett, who was like the most amazing tight end since Gronk the second half of last year.

Chip Kelly finally has what he's what he wants.

Chip Kelly is the OC. Pete Carroll, three-year deal.

So like we're pumped and jacked for coming in.

They're playing the AFC South. They play the Browns, the Giants, the Bears, and the Cowboys.

They play Casey in week 18. Right. That could matter if Casey's like, ah, fuck it.

They were minus 16 in turnover differential last year.

31st overall. So they're better QB coach and running back.

Probably the worst secondary in the league if you're going to ding them on something.

Defensive line's not great. The defense, but that's going to be a peak arrow, moving guys in, pump the jack thing.

I have them in the playoffs. I have nine and eight.

Good for you. I have one nine. Also, I don't think I have, I don't have them in the playoffs, but I think there are nine.

I have a lot of wins in that AFC West, but it all adds up.

I promise. Yeah, I do worry, though. that they're going to be feisty but lose a lot of games.

Like, I think they're going to be like the SD Joneses.

They're going to be the LV Joneses. Yeah.

Like, all right, on TV, he's going to lose like six out of seven wins.

The Tony Atlas? When Tony Atlas and SD Jones were together?

Maybe they'll team him up with Tony Atlas.

Maybe he'll beat Iron Mike Sharp if... He pinned him.

Where's the referee? Exactly. He's been pinned him for seven seconds.

They've been screwed by the referees. So, you know, Mooring and Spillane with their highest rated run. but they have Malcolm Coons, so that's going to be tough.

But I think they go against the weakest quarterbacks in the league.

Number one easiest schedule of pass offenses.

Notice that. That does help. And seven of the final eight are indoors.

Geno's quarterback rating is 100 plus indoors.

I mean, think about this. You go 3-1 against AFC South, and you beat the Browns, and you beat the Cowboys.

That's six. Split Giants-Bears, they're seven.

Beat the Chargers at least once. There's eight.

You know, we can get to nine wins pretty easily.

Beat New England game one. Yeah. From a talent standpoint, I wouldn't say they're loaded.

They're top heavy in the same way the Niners are and the Bengals are.

Well, we're looking for a team like this.

It definitely... Definitely could be them.

I want to bet. I wish we could bet that they'd cover over eight and a half games.

Can we bet that they'll cover nine games?

Who cares if teams win or lose? So from the absolutely cannot believe they made the playoffs list, Vegas, Tennessee, Jets, Giants, Saints, Cleveland.

This is the first one I'm going with. Vegas plus 320.

It is. And we know we're going to have at least two.

Do you have, so you have them with 10, so they have to be in.

No, I have them nine wins, and I think nine wins makes it.

Yeah, I think the seven seed is nine wins.

What other nine? Because this is the last team in the AFC.

So what other nine-win teams do you have that don't make it?

They're the only one. I put Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 8-9.

Oh, that worked out nicely. And I put the Chargers at 8-9.

And if one of them gets to 9, I'll give Vegas the tiebreaker.

So I have Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston, Denver as my division winners.

Casey is the five seed. New England is the six seed.

And Vegas is the seven seed. And I'd like to welcome Vegas to the Shakey's game right now.

Oh, really? Yeah. They're already invited.

We've already made reservations for the 2-7... Who would it be?

The Denver-Vegas... Shakey's game. Who's home in the AFC South?

No, Denver the two seed and Vegas the seven seed.

Oh, you're saying Houston? The Texans or Jags would host, I think.

But that's Houston KC. They're not going to put that.

Unless it was Houston Denver, they would put that in shape.

Yeah, I have Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Jags, division winners, Broncos, Bengals, Patriots.

So I didn't do the three in, three out exercise because it didn't work last year and I didn't want to force it.

What's the three in, three out? Three playoff teams out, three in.

Doesn't always work. I wonder, I was looking at it.

Does the 17 game schedule have less variance?

16 games was like three and three out. Like you could, you could set your watch.

Now if you're good, you're good. Yeah, you got that extra game to kind of right the ship.

Even Cincinnati last year almost made the playoffs and they sucked.

Yep. All right. That's it for part one.

Thanks to Gahal. Thanks to Saruti. We're putting this up on Wednesday night, and then we're going to put up part two, which is coming probably Thursday lunch range of NFC.

Yeah. And we're going to take a break. I'm going to get you a Coke.

Okay. Coke Zero or Diet Coke? Diet Coke I probably have.

I'm going to have a coffee. We're going to take a break and we're going to do the NFC, including your team.

Let's go. Let's go, Jaya. When we saw that I said I don't Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming.

Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com.

Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org. slash chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland.

Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York.

[The Bill Simmons Podcast: AFC Over-Under Breakdown and Season Predictions]-[The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Cousin Sal]

📋 Summary

The AFC Over-Under Deep Dive: A Preview of the 2024 NFL Season

The Buffalo Bills: Super Bowl Contenders or Regression Candidates?

New England Patriots: The Rebuild and the Drake Maye Factor

The AFC North and South Conundrums

The "Cannot Believe They Missed the Playoffs" List

Final Thoughts and Divisional Outlook

🎯Key Sentences

📝Key Phrases

📖 Transcript