Hello and welcome to World Today, I'm Dingheng in Beijing.
Coming up, the Chinese mainland has launched combined drills around Taiwan in warnings to separate the forces.
China's Foreign Minister says China and Russia are friends forever.
Tuesday marks a key anniversary of China -India diplomatic ties, so we are going to explore why bilateral ties are at a critical stage.
And over there in France, far right political leader Marine Le Pen has been barred from 2027 presidential race.
To listen to this episode again, or to catch upon on previous episodes, you can download our podcast, by searching world today.
The Chinese mainland has kicked off joint exercises involving the country's Army, Navy, Air force and rocket forces around Taiwan.
The People's Liberation Army says the drills are a serious warning and forceful deterrence against the Taiwan Independence Forces and a legitimate and necessary action to safeguard China's sovereignty and national unity.
And the exercises are mainly focusing on sea air combat readiness patrols, joint seizure of comprehensive superiority, assault on maritime and ground targets, and blockade on key areas and sea lanes.
The drills came after Taiwan's Lai Qingde government unveiled 17 measures hostile to the Chinese mainland.
So joining us now on the line is Dr. Liu Kun -yu from the Institute of Taiwan Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Thank you very much for joining us Dr. Liu Kun -gu.
First of all, Zhu Fangliang, a spokesperson of the Chinese Government's Taiwan Affairs Office, said the military exercises are a firm punishment for the Laid -Tingde Administration's rampant, pro -independence provocations.
So would you agree that Laid -Tingde and his administration is making rampant provocations to advance their pro -independence agenda?
Yes, I totally agree with this statement.
I think the extent of lies, deliberate provocations can be analyzed from quite a few perspectives.
First, lies provocations for independence are both extremely absurd and exaggerated claims and practical supporting policies.
So that's both talk and act.
And it's not just tug, but there is a clear roadmap for the project of Taiwan independence that he's carrying on.
And second, it's very obvious that this time he's trying to deliberately intensify and speculate on cross -strait conflicts, and part of his intention is to serve his own internal politics goals on the island, especially the large -scale dismissal and the future elections.
So what he want is to intentionally fan the flames on both sides of the strait and then bring the fire back to the island so this kind of a frantic approach to causing trouble for the sake of taiwan independence and his own power is highly provocative but it shows that legend is not afraid and not afraid to sacrifice peace and stability and prosperity on both sides of the strait and only for his own purpose .
intention of Taiwanese penitence seeking for power and furthermore since coming to power, Lai has been trying to piece together his so -called lifestyle system of Taiwan independence discourse which has evolved from the two nation theory and the motherland theory and then now today the enemy nation theory.
So not only does Lai believe there were two sides of the straits not have not afflicted with each other and Taiwan does not so far belong to China but even he even advocates this cross -strait hostility, confrontation, and even wars, conflicts.
So this is very harmful and provocative, and he has reached a new peak of DPP administration's advocacy for independence and directly touches the right line of the strait.
So if this is not rampant provocation, so what is, what the hell is there?
Yeah. So one observation is that since he took office, Lai Jingde has pushed green terror policies on the island, meaning whoever calling for, say, national reunification or favoring exchanges with the Chinese mainland will face coercion.
Is this in line with your observation?
Yes, it is quite consistent with my observations.
It seems to me that Lai actually has perhaps a three -step plan.
The first is so -called targeted elimination.
Lai is a politician we noticed with a very extremely stubborn mindset towards Taiwan independence as well as the narrow -minded and paranoid personality, so he can hardly tolerate anyone who does not share the same stance on his own and is even more fully manifested after he sees the highest power on the island.
So where he would definitely use various methods and policies of physical elimination or silencing or expulsion and to make it physically impossible for all of the island's people who are there to bring about cross -strait exchanges, national ratification on the island, those sort of ideas.
The second is we can call it chilling effect.
Of course, light can not offer a butcher knife or a big stick to all the people on Taiwan.
So for the rest who are watching or we can say that are the silent majority, I think we'll use this target elimination to make an example of them to create panic, to create terror, horror so that the people were not there to talk about the truth, other people.
And lastly, I think in the future, He will promote a so -called a green terror throughout the island, maybe even towards more Taiwan independence terrorism, not just terror terrorism.
So that is I mean, he would not only shout and try to fight with the Chinese mainland, but also directly or prosecute the people of on the island who have different views on their personal safety, on their politics, status, economic status and also legal status so that's to create a but martial law militarized or and Taiwan independence dictatorship that sort of politics as society that is I think what I say Taiwan independence terrorism and that is the society he wants to achieve in Taiwan.
From the perspective of What aspects of the drills this time around do you think deserve our attention?
Well first of all, I think we can see the timing and the rhythm of the Mainland's two military drills and training activities, after like so -called 17 articles.
Both first time to take a stand and try to discipline and try to punish the Taiwan independence.
but also, we have this unexpected very large scale push, push the limit of compression for the Taiwan military response.
They're open – both their time and space, the time and space for their military to response, and fully, I think, demonstrated the PLA's full -time readiness to fight and also immediately able to fight and also the ability to fight – to win the battle against Taiwan independence, that's what our DOD has said.
So as what was the, we can see also in our Chinese classic, we can say the so -called water is not always the shape of the army attack.
I mean, there is a special tactical application you can see, but we call it the art of war that has been demonstrated in the recent drills.
And secondly, I think the scale of the military exercise and the subjects of the exercise showed that we are not only to punish the Taiwan independence forces to show our absolute advantage over the Taiwanese army but also the comprehensive dominance of the entire Taiwan sea and airspace and also the coverage of key roads and errors and the general comprehensive control of the whole region.
So I think this actually a warning, a very strong signal of denial to those who fantasy interference, their the so -called external forces that I think they can receive this sort of signal that you are not allowed to go, we are ready for you, we have been well planned and disciplined.
And so lastly, this exercise in which the Chinese mainland military maritime policy, police departments work together to jointly implement our sovereignty, our governance and adjudication over Taiwan Strait.
I think it's also a slap in the face of so -called non -flation between the two sides of the strait that Lajingde has advocated.
So this is also something we call a legal basis for this military exercise.
So I guess somehow people really need to abandon this kind of assumption that the Chinese mainland will not use force against those pro -independence separatist forces, I guess that's a very clear message from Beijing So actually American Defense Chief Peter Hexxas has just made a trip to Japan where he said over there that ''America is committed to sustaining robust, ready and credible deterrence in the Indo -Pacific, including across the Taiwan Strait.'' He also touted the US -Japan alliance in terms of the so -called defense of Taiwan.
How dangerous do you think his comment here is?
And do you think the Trump administration, for example, is genuinely committed to Taiwan?
Yes, it's a dangerous move that we're noting, but we know that headsets from Mars demonstrate Trump's administration's intention to more explicitly include Taiwan in its Indo -Pacific strategy.
Also, actually using Taiwan to strengthen its Indo -Pacific allies in defense integration.
But actually, this is something that is easier to say than to do.
So obviously Japan is U .S. most wanted brand or an ally to put together in this region.
And in addition to Japan, Japanese side of own attitude towards Taiwan, they are very ambiguous and very provocative attitude towards Taiwan.
More importantly, actually, I think behind this is Trump's internal strategy contraction for the pressure they have to retrieve.
They have to go back to the homeland of the US and that Americans first, so they have to push all their allies and partners to push them in the front to go to support so -called Taiwan and to try to curb China to bear the corresponding pressure and responsibility and cost to boost their military spending and so that the U .S. can enjoy a so -called low cost and containment of China with Taiwan.
So of course most of the current U .S. allies today are not willing to act as the kind of funder and or a consumables for the U .S. But Japan seems to be the object that U .S. rely on most. But the two sides actually they have They have their own agenda of each other.
They have their own calculating.
They're all hoping to have the right to push the other in the front.
So they don't really have so -called obligations or commitments to Taiwan, But using this trying to use this as an opportunity.
So the final question before we let you go, Dr. Liu, for the Lai Qing government in Taiwan, what do you think is the key lesson it needs to learn from what is going on elsewhere, geopolitically across the world today?
Briefly. There are many lessons actually Lai should learn, but I would like to raise one, if not most important.
I think Mr. Lai is pretending there is no elephant in the room, and not daring to recognize the responsibility for his provocation of independence and enormous pressure now he is under.
Lai, I think, will, of course, try to lessen the impact of the public opinion, but P .I.
Wei has already told Lai himself with his actions.
Taiwan independence is a dead end.
It's a desperate path.
And if he walks down to the end, he will only end up losing his reputation and even political life.
So I think this one thing he should have should have understood is the one phrase is to not say what you want to say, do not say what we have said before.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Dr. Liu Guangyu is joining us from the Institute for Taiwan Studies, with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Coming up, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi says China and Russia are friends forever.
Stay tuned. Hello. My name is Alessandro Golombieffs Tesheda.
I'm a professor of Public Policy and Management at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
I am a great listener of the world today.
In my opinion, the world today is one of the best China radio programs. In the world today, we can get the best news and analysis In what is happening in the world right now.
So please come to join us.
You are back with World Today.
I am Dinghen in Beijing.
China's foreign ministers says China and Russia are forever friends.
Wang Yi made a remark in a media interview published on Tuesday.
The senior Chinese diplomat said the principle of quote -unquote friends forever, never enemies, is serving as a solid legal basis for advancing high -level strategic cooperation between Beijing and Moscow.
He welcomed the recent steps taken by Moscow and Washington to improve their bilateral ties, suggesting the current global conditions oblige big powers to be stabilizing forces.
The Chinese Foreign Minister also said that Ukraine ceasefire negotiations should continue, adding that a peace deal must be binding and acceptable for our parties.
Wang Yi is currently on a three -day visit to Russia.
So joining us now on the line is Professor Cui Hongjian from Academy of Regional and Global Governance Beijing Foreign Studies University.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Hi, so friends forever never enemies professor saying.
Why do you think from a Chinese perspective to say the least this is the solid basis for strategic cooperation or coordination between Beijing and Moscow first of all, as we know this close relations between China Russia has been tested by the time.
For a long time, indeed, this kind of bilateral relations always very, very high level.
And not only because of a very, very good leader trust between our two leaders and especially governments.
And they even, after you know, recently economic cooperation provide more momentum for these bilateral relations.
Also both China and Russia are the biggest neighbors with each other, so we can understand how it is important to have these good relations because according to the Chinese culture always you should have a you know, a close neighbor and then once you have some problem or some issues and you can have some I mean frankly exchange with your neighbors, and then you can provide support with each other.
But of course, I think recently, especially the background of international relations, and also it looks like more and more geopolitical tensions.
I think it gives another very important reason for China and Russia to keep their close and friendly relations.
In terms of economic or trade sense, what kind of stability do you think China and Russia can bring to the world by working together with each other?
You know, even earlier, before decades, it looked like economic -trade relations were not a highlight for these bilateral relations between China and Russia.
But in recent years I think the situation changed a lot.
Just like Minister Wang pointed out during his visit to Moscow, today both two countries, especially bilateral trade war has been nearly 215, I mean billion U .S. dollars.
So I think now it gives more and strong support to these relations.
And indeed, as we know, now, for all the economy, it lacks of the momentum, and also driving force for some more recovery.
But I think their stability and also the growth in the relations between China and Russia on economic area could provide also very clear confidence for the economy.
Why do you think China would genuinely feel happy, and even encouraging, if Russia and the United States could somehow improve their biological ties?
As we know, the attitude from China towards these relations, especially recently, as we know, more negotiations and exchange between US and Russia, could be on the stand of China itself and also in the interest of China.
As we know, the general purpose from Chinese foreign policy is to look forward to some more exchange and also even cooperation between major players in the world.
And as we know now, once some more exchange, some more mutual confidence, and also mutual trust between major players, certainly it will provide some more stable basis for international relations.
But of course, I think that China will also try to be part of this process to promote mutual trust between major players, years, not only between US and Russia.
So with regard to the peace prospects for the Ukraine crisis, the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi suggested that it's actually a matter of no pains, no gains.
So at this point, when for example, when peace talks have already generated some positive result for sure.
In the meantime, the reality is diverging views and difficult situations on a battlefield, for example, remain.
At this point, what role do you think China can play in terms of helping achieve more gains?
China will play a consistent level in the crisis of Ukraine.
even recently as we know, yes some stakeholders try to push forward and so peaceful solution and to find out more opportunity for negotiations not only between US and Russia especially between I think finally between Russia and the Ukraine and indeed I think European countries could be part of the negotiation.
So I think China now is trying to welcome all of this situation to open the door for the peaceful solution, but at the same time, I think that China will keep a very close observation, and China will still be more constructive though, to support the process of offer peace for solution.
Also sustainable and also resort could be accepted by all of the stakeholders including China.
So I think the international community and also more member states of international community including China could be part of the efforts.
Part of the effort, of course, China has a genuine wish regarding the peace prospects for Ukraine.
some people might speculate that China is unwilling to see an end of the crisis to allow the U .S. to relocate its resources to Asia to combat China's presence, I think this kind of idea sounds like nonsense from a Chinese perspective.
Now, so the final question before we let you go, Professor Cui, we know this year is marking a key anniversary of our humanity's victory against the fascism in history.
What do you make of the realistic meanings of China and Russia celebrating this key anniversary together to the world today?
Firstly, we need to understand what does it mean for the people, for the countries, to celebrate the anniversary of the victory against the fascism.
I think the important thing is we need to learn something more from the history how to stop any kind of a risk for this mistrust and also some more geopolitical tensions.
Another, I think, important thing for both China and Russia and even some other countries in the world is we need to take all of the resources and also make every kind of effort to stop the copy of the historic challenge.
As we know, World War Two or some other geopolitical conflicts, it produced so many sufferings and there was so many so much damages for society and for the human being.
So I think that now it's time, not only for China and Russia, and also most a member of the international community and to remember the historic lessons, and try to provide some more positive solutions for any kind of a no current conflicts and tensions.
Thank you very much for joining us today.
Professor Cui Hongjian joining us from Academy of Regional and Global Governance, with Beijing Foreign Studies University.
You are listening to World Today.
I am Ding Heng in Beijing.
We will be back after a short break.
Welcome back. You are listening to World Today.
I am Ding Heng in Beijing.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on India and China to strengthen their mutual trust and bilateral cooperation to promote the healthy development of the bilateral ties.
The Chinese leader made the remark in a Tuesday phone call with his Indian counterpart Juropati Marmool.
Xi Jinping said China and India should view their ties from a strategic and long -term perspective, suggesting the two countries work together to advance multiple polarization and democratization in international relations.
And Tuesday is marking the 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties between China and India.
China's foreign ministry on Tuesday also called for joint efforts to maintain peace along the two countries' border areas.
Bilateral ties have been on a warm trajectory since President Xi Jinping met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Russian city of Kazan last year.
Joining us now on the line is Professor Wang Junxiu from Zhejiang University.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Hello, Daehun. It's good to be here with you.
Seventy -five years, this anniversary is a key milestone, no doubt.
Looking back, what do you make of some of the key experience and lessons that Beijing and the New Delhi can learn from the historical development of their biological ties?
Yes, definitely. China and India, two very ancient civilizations, have a very long history of exchange in contact.
The important change, of course, was the post -World War II when India retained independence and China had the People's Republic's new government.
And I think the early years was very good for both sides and the two see each other as partners as having common goals in the in the world system.
So the famous actually China's famous five principles of peace and coexistence were jointly developed between Chinese premier Zhou Enlai and the Indian prime minister, Nehru, and it was a very important set of diplomatic international relation principles for developing countries.
So China, India together, contributed to the emergence of the third world countries during those years.
What was very unfortunate of course was the relation, the bilateral relation went very sour later on.
And the main reason was India was not very ready to accept China's sovereignty to accept China as an equal partner, and so on.
And in India I think, for most of the time, saw itself as the leader of the developing world, of the Third World, and when China's economic and political influence the globe grow much bigger in the into the 1990s and this century, it was even more uncomfortable for India to find a way to deal with China.
So I think all this led to a lot of frictions between China, India, and the border between the two countries have always had problems, although of recent years, things seem to be getting better.
So looking back, these 75 years, of course, can teach us many things.
And I think the most important thing is that countries still have to actually go back to the original spirits of peaceful coincidence and cooperation.
And if you want to have a good bilateral relation, if you want to build a peaceful world, you need mutual trust, you need to respect each other's interests and then try to find ways to cooperate.
Hopefully I think the two countries' leadership are now trying to find ways to pursue those goals.
Thank you very much for putting a long history into perspective.
So China's ambassador to India has recently suggested in a media interview with Global Times, I think that bilateral ties are at a crucial stage.
So in what ways do you think the ties are at a critical stage right now?
Well, in one way, like I said earlier, the direct dispute between the two countries is the border issue.
In that matter, things are quieting down recently.
So there is an opportunity for the two parts, for the two countries, to consolidate those games and to build up much better, much stronger bilateral relations with the border issue under control.
And the the United States now are generating a lot of disruptions, so to speak, to the world community in terms of globalization, the trade agreement, trade matters in terms of U .S. geopolitical roles and geopolitical ambitions.
So it's a time that the world order is being remade.
and China and India, together with other global Southern countries, have a great opportunity to pursue a much more what we call multi -polar, more stable, more democratized global order.
India and China are very important players in this so it is important that the two countries a common framework and work together, and work together with other global southern countries to pursue a peaceful world.
So in that sense, the two countries are facing important opportunities and it is crucial the leadership and the civil society of the two countries can find common grounds to work together.
By the way, what is your understanding about this particular idea that somehow the two countries, China and India, should view their bilateral ties from a strategic and long -term perspective.
Why is such a perspective important?
Well for one thing, I think the Chinese, in Chinese technologies of foreign relations and global affairs, Chinese people use the term, zhān rùyì xīng, or strategic, actually that translated into English, it kind of carries quite a different meaning, meaning in a sense when you talk about something like strategic, you kind of convey that you are not genuine, you are trying to maneuver, you're trying to be strategic.
That's one meaning and the other meaning, I think the Chinese original meaning is you look at the longer -term matter, you have a much broader view, you don't get yourself trapped in the minor issues, in the tactical matters.
So that's what the Chinese and President Xi Jinping's use of the term strategic.
And in that sense, and it is just what I was talking about, that, one, there is now a historical opportunity for China, India, and global southern countries to remake to produce a much better war order.
And second, the two countries have very common ambitions in terms of developing their own country pursuing what Chinese call the modernization project.
India has those ambitions, China has those ambitions.
Looking long term, those two of them can be mutual support for each other, can benefit from working together.
And then putting down the minor fictions in the border issue, those are indeed very minor in terms of the global picture.
I see. So the final question, before we need to let you go, Professor, and briefly, on the parts of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government, why do you think we have also recently heard some positive remarks about ties with China?
For example, in a recent podcast interview, Modi emphasized the dialogue with China over discord. I think one is the global politics is becoming much more uncertain with the US role changing and US intentions are very uncertain and unclear.
So in India, there is a need to diversify its global strategies to collaborate more with China.
And second, I think it's domestic.
And I also said just now that India's objectives of modernization, of industrialization, of its market development, it can benefit greatly from China, from working with China, from having access to Chinese investment and technology and so on.
And so in that sense, I think they are willing to cool down the border disputes and also looking for ways to cooperate with China.
Thank you for joining us, Professor Wang Zhenhsu is joining us from Zhejiang University.
Coming up, global shares are sliding as new American import duties loom.
You are listening to World Today, we will be back.
US President Donald Trump has claimed to announce new tariffs later this week.
Goldman Sachs is now expecting the aggressive duties from the White House to raise inflation and unemployment and drag American economic growth to a near standstill.
The investment bank has raised its forecast for inflation in the United States this year, to 3 .5%, cut its GDP outlook to only 1%, and raised the American unemployment view to 4 .5%.
It also expects a 35 % chance for recession over the course of next one year, compared to prior expectation regarding 20%.
The forecast is also painting a growing chance for a stagflation U .S. economy featuring low growth and high inflation.
For more, my colleague Zhao Yang spoke with Dr. Zhou Mi from Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation.
So President Donald Trump is expected to outline reciprocal tariffs against major U .S. trading partners.
Dr. Zhou Mi, tell us what is the purpose of it?
Well, in my understanding, he's trying to do actually two things.
First, why is he's trying to lower United States promises on its tariffs in the WTO and also in other free trade agreements, because United already lower that tariffs are so many different things.
So they want some kind of things to improve that to increase the tariffs on the import from other countries.
Well, the second purpose is he's trying to require other countries to give some promise, compromise to United States.
I mean, they have to give something to United States maybe not on the trade, but also on some other issues like we can find that in the past United States has used the tariffs to acquire the territory of Hawaii from independent kingdom.
So I think there is a likely that he's trying to ask more from other trading partners.
Hmm. And how do you see this affecting American consumers, especially when inflation has already driven up?
Well, tariff is definitely one part of the cost of the products, the final products, and also some of the intermediate products.
We can find that United States are mainly focused on the agriculture, some service industries, and some of the manufacturing products.
But even for those industries, they have to import intermediate products or the raw materials from other countries.
So it's dependent too much on import and that is a kind of you know very important part of the cost for the final products.
So if they put some tariffs on that, I would say that uh you know first they will suffer from a higher price on the final product and the second it is even more challenging is that the retailers, the wholesalers of the United States cannot find suitable or enough supply.
So they have to find some alternatives and the alternative supply may be not so good, maybe not so cheap.
So the consumers will definitely suffer from the higher price and the more uncertainties.
And Trump has already announced plans to impose 25 % tariffs on all imported automobiles.
So which countries do you think will be hit hardest by these autoteriffs?
Well, for the automobile sector, I think that it is the best or the most internationalized.
We have seen that there are so many collaborations in different countries.
So some countries are good at the tires.
Some countries are good at making the engines.
I think that Germany is one of the examples as you would like to point out.
For Germany they have produced very strong abilities of automobiles and they are supplying the rest of the world with many parts.
While the Japan is also one of the examples.
Japanese companies are really good at making some smaller things, but most important things.
So for its trading partners, near the United States, Canada and Mexico will definitely suffer from that because before that, there was no tariffs for the import and export of automobiles and auto parts.
But now they have to face a 25 percent.
It's a very huge increase, even for some of the US manufacturing.
If they invest it in Mexico and Canada, they will have to suffer from that.
And who will pay the price actually?
I think that maybe the supply chains will bear the price together.
Maybe, you know, the United States consumers, if they still want to buy the automobiles, they can choose from some not so good automobiles from United States or pay more for the import from other countries.
And both of these choices are not so good compared with right now.
What retaliatory measures might we see from these major car exporting nations?
I think that's a really a big issues for them because it's related to so many employment and also the development of sectors.
So I think that they must be very serious about the problems. If we are looking back in the past eight years, we see the steel and aluminum is one of the examples.
When United States trying to put the tariffs on them, for the EU, they have retaliated on the whiskey and also the cheese or the jeans produced in the United States.
I think that in this time, they will try to do more because they are taking care of the main export of United States like the crude oil or LNGs or other things.
But I have to say that in this regard, all these retaliations will have the effects not only on the U .S. side but also on themselves because they depend a lot on the input from United States.
Even for Canada, they have a lot of consideration about the possibilities, but I think that the.) But they have to do that because it's taking two series and it's related to so many employment.
And Goldman Sachs expects the aggressive duties from the White House will raise the inflation and unemployment and drag down the economic growth.
It also predicts a growing chance of a stagflation economy.
So how do you view all this tariffs impacts on the US economy?
Well, I mean that if you are looking at the stock market performance of United States is already embedded or show some of the attitudes of the market.
In my understanding, that the market and also the people are not like the uncertainty, Maybe Donald Trump has given there some dream that they can take the manufacturing back and produce more jobs, but it is only just the promises.
How can we believe that the investors will follow that attitude of United States government?
So for the enterprises, for the employment, they may worry about not enough demand and not enough jobs.
And for those people are not likely to have more income.
They may be very careful about the conception, and for the companies when they are trying to look at the future development, they have to take care of the supply chains and trying to be carefully manage their stocks.
And this uncertainty will strengthen or tighten the supply chains, and in this regard it will have even higher pressure on the and also the congestion in the ports and also a lot of changes will make the people know where to hide.
I think it is definitely a bad news for the economy of the U .S. if they can not have the right promises or hope in the future.
Reinvigorated US manufacturing is one of the key motivations for Trump to have all these tariffs policies but have they achieved any success in revitalizing the US manufacturing?
Till now I didn't observe any of this, you know, real facts, but I have to see that there are some signals that was sent by some of the companies who said that they will increase their investment in the U .S. But I have to say that it is only the promises.
We can say that for many of the investments, it has to be supported, but not only by the capital but also by the employment, I mean, labour roles and the supply chains.
For those companies, I do believe that they want to expand and grasp the opportunities of the US market, but they still worry about the supply chains.
If they are not able to find enough support from the local market and international relations, they may try to think about from another different choice, which is not so helpful for the US to regulate its manufacturing.
And currently, fear of de -globalization is high in the world.
So what does Trump's tariff policies mean for international trade?
For international trade, I think that the United States is one of the major trading partners in the world.
So it's involved and embedded deeply in international trade.
But it is creating a higher tariff war.
I mean, all the trading partners are trying to think about how can they rebalance the international pattern of the trade.
I don't think that only the United States has enough ability to consume the products in the world.
We are seeing that many of the emerging economies are developing so quickly and they have similar ideas about the development in the digital products and the low carbon development.
So I still believe that we can try to rethink about, you know, the pattern global globally and trying to continue with rebalance and also according to the demand of the markets.
Dr. Zhong Yi from the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation talking to my colleague Zhao Yang.
You are listening to Whirl today.
I'm Dihan in Beijing.
In a starting turn of events, French far -right leader Marine Le Pen may be facing the end of her presidential ambitions, at least for now.
A court ruling on Monday found three -time presidential candidate guilty of embezzling public funds, banning her from running for office for five years.
And this could potentially block her 2027 presidential bid, unless she can win appeal.
Prosecutors say she and her party misused more than four million US dollars worth of EU funds.
But Le Pen denies wrongdoing arguing that the money was spent legally.
Joining us now in the studio is my colleague, Ge Anh.
Thank you very much for joining us.
My pleasure. First of all, what did we hear from Mr. Le Pen regarding her responses to being convicted?
First of all, this is indeed a historic ruling cuz later that evening Le Pen appeared on France TV One Television Channel to respond for the first time.
She has denied any wrongdoing, asserting that she had absolutely no sense of having broken the law.
She angrily condemned the ruling as a political decision, calling it a tragic day for French democracy.
She said this decision is completely a violation of rule of law and she never expected the judge to so bluntly disregard democratic procedures.
And she added that millions of French people might have lost their candidate.
Her deputy, Jordan Bardella, also the chairman of the party, also denounced the ruling stating, today is not only Le Pen who was unjustly condemned, it was a French democracy that was killed.
Le Pen also declared that she does not accept the Court's ruling and she will absolutely not withdraw from politics.
She emphasized that she remains highly motivated and will not allow herself to be eliminated so easily and allowing to do everything in her power to appeal the decision.
And given that appeals in France often take a long time, so Le Pen acknowledged that the legal path ahead is very narrow, but she said her anger has instead become an extra source of motivation.
She urged the court to accelerate the process so she can still participate in the French presidential election as planned.
I see. So, by the way, what do we know about the details regarding Le Pen's embezzlement cases and its conviction?
According to the Court's ruling, during Le Pen's tenure as a member of the European Parliament from 2004 -2014, was found guilty of misappropriating European Parliament events by employing a citizen who did not perform work related to parliamentary duties.
The amount involved is reportedly over 4 million euros, in addition to Le Pen's, 24 other members of National Rallye, who also were tried alongside her and also found guilty.
In addition, the National Rallye itself was fined 2 million euros.
Le Pen's sentence also includes 4 years of imprisonment, with 2 years suspended and years to be served under electronic monitoring outside prison and also 100 ,000 fine.
As we know earlier you mentioned a five year ban from running for public office and this is the most severe punishment for her so far.
Okay, so really, I mean Le Pen has been there in within the French political cycle for quite a long long time.
How does her current standing in the presidential election polls look like?
Yes, Le Pen has a very strong appeal to the voters.
And according to a voting intention survey published by the French polling institute, IFOP, on the same day of the ruling, 34 % to 37 % of respondents said they plan to support Le Pen in the first round of the next French presidential election, which is more than 10 % points higher than her support rate back in the 2022 election, and reports say such a voting percentage is comparable to those of former French presidents like France Omitan and Nicolas Sarkozy, who received 34 % and 31 % of the vote respectively in their first rounds of elections.
So through this comparison, you can see the level of popularity Le Pen enjoys in the country despite the legal challenges she faces Well, so if Le Pen is unable to run then here comes the question Who could be the backup candidate for her national rally party?
And what do we know about Le Pen's stance regarding this?
The one I mentioned earlier who made a strong condemnation on the ruling Jordan Bardella also the current chairman of the national rally and a member of the European Parliament since 2019 he is considered the likely successor but the Economist stated that the severity of the ruling has caught the National rally party by surprise because firstly Le Pen has very few options to regain her ability to run her office and secondly party insiders admit that the Bardella is not yet ready because experts believe although Bardella has been the party leader for several years she has never positioned herself
as a replacement of Le Pen instead she has been prepared to become Le Pen's prime minister if they want in the next election and for the question on Le Pen's stance on the potential candidacy she hasn't made any comments on this yet but we still have have to see so all in all for the national rally national rally is still a tricky challenge.
We have to see what adjustments they will make in the future.
So briefly, the final question before we let you go, what impact, what do you make of the impact of this ruling on French Politics?
I think, in the short term, this ruling will open the door to further political instability in France and is likely to continue influencing domestic political discussion for the next two years.
And also, I think this will also have a big impact on French economy and the government finance because national rally also plays a important role in deciding the budget planning and everything.
OK, I take your point.
But thank you very much for joining us that was my colleague Ge An Na.
Unfortunately that's all the time for this edition of World Today.
A quick recap of today's headline news.
The Chinese mainland has launched combined drills around Taiwan in warnings to separate the forces.
China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi says China and Russia are friends forever.
To listen to this episode again or to catch upon our previous episodes.
Download our podcast by searching world today.
I am Dinghell in Beijing, thank you for watching, bye for now.
