189. When Should You Trust Your Gut? | No Stupid Questions

Before we start today's show, I'd like to take a moment to acknowledge the recent passing of Dr.

Danny Kahneman. Danny was, in my opinion, one of the greatest psychologists of all time, if not the greatest psychologist of all time.

And what's more Danny's character was without comparison.

He was gracious and kind.

He was quick to apologize and loath to take credit.

The world is not the same without his brilliant mind.

We hope you enjoyed today's show, which like so many of our episodes relies heavily on Danny's work, to answer a not-so-stupid question about human behavior.

He will be sorely missed.

Hey, wait a minute. You need to do something different.

I'm Angela Duckworth. I'm Mike Mon.

And you're listening to no stupid questions.

Today on the show is your intuition leading you astray.

You think you're trusting your gut, but really you're just panicking.

Angela, I think we have a really fascinating question today from a listener named Rebecca.

Okay. She says this, my son has been having issues with sleep for months.

We've tried various forms of sleep training, but I've never been able to fully commit to them.

Sleep training often involves letting a baby cry for a certain period of time so that they can learn to fall asleep on their own.

Listening to him cry like this has made me second guess everything I read from pediatric sleep experts.

Angela, you're a mom. I know your kids are in college now.

But you've been through this.

Is this resonating? Yes.

A crisis of the soul. I remember when Amanda was sleep training.

I must have lived in San Francisco with Jason at the time.

And she was our first. So I don't know if Rebecca's a first time mom, but it sounds like it.

And I go to this sleep training class and we're like in a circle of moms.

And the sleep trainer is of course doing what sleep trainers do, which is she's trying to get us to all that our kids cry more.

They're like, please don't rush over to the crib and comfort your baby as soon as they cry because they will never learn to sleep to the night.

It's not that crying is a good thing, but they have to be left alone and they have to teach themselves how to go to sleep.

So then one by one, the moms are asked, how long can you listen to your baby cry before you rush over to the crib and scoop them up in your arms.

And so the moms are going one by one.

I was last. And it's like, you know, five minutes, you know, like two minutes, seven minutes.

And it comes to me and I'm like five hours.

The moms look at me and their jaws are like on the floor.

And I look back to them and I was like, look, if they're crying, they're breathing.

She's live. Look at those lungs.

Go a man to go. And she's going to be a great runner someday because their lungs are strong and powerful.

She does have great lungs actually.

She was really fast. So this question at its core, I'll keep going is about trusting your gut.

Oh, there's more to the questions.

Sorry, interrupted Rebecca.

Go on. Rebecca says she felt this strong magnetic pull to run to her son and pick him up, even though she knew intellectually that it would interrupt the sleep training process.

So she continues, I ultimately fought these feelings with critical thinking and made myself stick to a sleep program.

My baby is finally sleeping through the night exclamation point.

Happy ending. She says I feel really silly for not falling through this earlier, but it's made me think a lot about the concept of trusting your gut.

If it's the wrong thing to do in this context, when else might it be wrong?

And when can this intuition help us?

And when does it get in the way?

Such a great question and not only for parents of newborns, right?

When do you trust your gut and when do you ignore it completely and trust?

I guess the opposite of your gut would be, you know, trust reason.

So let me start by asking you a question, is there a time that you've trusted your gut and either been really happy you did it or trusted your gut and thought, why in the world did I not just go with kind of the research or what else was out there?

Okay, a time in my life where I had a really strong visceral intuition that didn't feel like it was thoughtful or deliberate or calculated that went well was when I was in college, I volunteered in this, what was in volunteer, I guess I was paid in this summer school and I flew down to New Orleans and I was a teacher.

I had these like middle school kids, I remember thinking to myself, like I've never worked hard in my life and I flew back to college because I think I was about to start senior year and I had a really strong intuition that I should completely detour from my plans to go to medical school and take the MCAT.

I mean, I was a neuro bio major, I had fulfilled all the requirements for medical school, everybody, including my father, expected me to go to medical school, I had a really strong gut intuition that I should completely change my plans and go into education and in fact start like a carbon copy of that very same program in my community then, which was Cambridge, Massachusetts,

and that's what I did. Happy ending.

I mean, not a happy beginning, so my dad stopped speaking to me for months, like he just refused to talk to me, my mom would try to put a mother phone and he would refuse.

So not a happy beginning, but it was a happy ending, so I did start that program, which later the name became and still is breakthrough collaborative greater Boston, it won the Better Government Award for the state of Massachusetts, and I think it just recently celebrated its 30th anniversary.

And it provides free summer enrichment to a shockingly large proportion of students in the public schools in Boston and Cambridge and Summerville.

So I'm really glad I did it.

I feel like it's one of the few things I can point to, you know, when my days are done on this green earth that I will feel like I did the right thing.

I really should just emphasize that like I had a gut instinct to do something that was not easily rationalized, honestly.

I mean, my father was like this makes no sense, and I was like, I know.

Was it and took a huge personal cost, right?

I guess so. I mean, it was just like throwing away all of my pre-med training was like, why did I suffer through organic chemistry and like, you know, second semester of physics and all the bio and all that if I'm going to now become somebody in education who's not going to use any of that training.

So it wasn't quote unquote rational, but I think that story would lead somebody like Rebecca, our listener, did think well, you should always trust your gut then, right?

But I have a story of intuition leading me astray, and I'm willing to share it with you.

It's like OMG, what an idiot.

And then I'd love to hear you do the same so you make me feel better.

Yeah, no, I have one too.

Okay, good. I'm sure everybody does.

And I think that's what makes this question so so great.

So I'm in San Francisco, and I'm there with Jason for my cousins wedding.

And both of us had lived in San Francisco for years actually in a previous chapter of our lives.

So we were well acquainted with the trolley cars.

It's kind of more of a tourist thing, honestly, sure, sure, you know, you get onto the trolley car and it goes up these like really steep hills and it goes down these steep hills and they ring this little brass bell and it's all fun.

So we decide to take a trolley car despite having lived in San Francisco for many years.

And so the novelty shouldn't have been there.

And then the trolley car operator, they warn you to not jump off the trolley car under any circumstances because it's extremely dangerous.

Right. They're like, just to say the obvious, right?

Like, just don't jump off the car.

So Jason, I are taking up.

I think it was on California street.

And it's unclear to me how this happens.

But like I dropped my wallet or something.

I must have been fumbling in my purse.

And intuition got me to jump off the trolley car.

I literally jumped off the trolley car into traffic.

Oh gosh. It is quite a drop.

Can I just tell you like it really hurt?

Like it's like, I don't know how many feet, but then it's like concrete.

And then I find myself like in the middle of two way traffic.

And I'm scared to get my wallet.

And the trolley car has to break my husband Jason is like staring at me in disbelief.

Like, oh my god, what an idiot.

And I have to say that I think that story could have ended very poorly.

Yeah. I think just by luck I didn't die.

But yeah, gut instinct.

Not a good thing to follow in that case.

So there's this Australian PSA called dumb ways to die.

Have you seen it? No, but just that it was from Australia.

It's got to be what hysterical.

Oh my gosh. It's amazing.

It's a rhyming thing that goes through like all these dumb ways to die.

Like taking your helmet off in space or eating a three week old un-refrigerated meat pie.

Anyway, it goes on and on.

But the point is that it's trying to say to people it's really dumb to jump across the subway tracks.

Oh, that's the PSA. And yet another way to do this must be a thing in Australia.

Yeah, it's a very catchy tune.

So many dumb ways to die.

Anyway, if I had heard that little jingle, I wouldn't have trusted gut intuition.

I think one of the differences between my story and Rebecca's is that I really didn't think at all.

I wasn't like, well, experts say this, but I feel like I should do that.

Like it sounds like for her, she was like, I don't know, my baby's crying.

I mean, there was a lot more time there to make a decision.

But I do think that's relevant to all this because scientists who study intuition will tell you that perhaps one of the reasons why we have this faculty of being able to make lightning quick decisions without a lot of reasoning without paper and pencil and like calculations is because.

Sometimes life makes you do that like sometimes you don't have any time right there are amazing videos if you ever want to get dragged into the YouTube vortex but amazing videos of people just reacting immediately with no thinking no analysis to save someone who's about to fall to jump out of the way of something etc.

And so there is this very clear immediate reaction, trust your gut and different scenarios.

Let me tell you my story where I screwed up and then let's dive into this because I love this.

I know it's going to say like we cannot continue this conversation.

I'm going to boycott further covers until you tell me a story about a bad decision that came from gotten tuition fair.

I'm not getting out of this.

Okay. So when you're building a company.

You can have equity in that company right and they call it paper money because it's just paper there's no actual value to it unless you can sell that and that's if you sell your company or you go public by listing on the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange occasionally during a company building process you'll get investment from some investors.

And either they put that money into the company or the founders can take some out or maybe some employees can take some out as well that's called secondary.

So at the time of building Qualtrics we have some investment coming in and they're letting us sell some of our shares for secondary if we've been at the company for expiry of time.

So it's like cashing out a little bit right cashing out your chips or some of them.

Yeah. So you cash out a little bit of money instead of just having paper money because you don't really know when the company will sell or when it will IPO or if it will sell right or if right because it couldn't upload or something.

So I do all the analysis I do a careful calculation I look at hey what are experts recommend in terms of what percentage of available stuff should you cash out dead of that.

So I had used all my logic and reason I talked to great people giving advice and I had made a very calculated decision to sell X amount like cost benefits probabilities.

And I was a deadline so let's say it was at 3 p.m.

on the certain day with like 15 minutes to spare.

I thought I had some really clear intuition that was like hey wait a minute you need to do something different.

You went against your calculate decision.

I went against all of it and it ended up costing me a large amount of money that you're not going to say because you just said a large amount of money that's what people say when they don't want to say how much.

Correct. I made a really bad decision because I thought I was following my gut.

Well you were following your gut.

It's just like you had indigestion.

Yes. Do you have any idea why your gut told you that you should do that.

I think that it was probably just panic on my part.

I ran to our general council and I just was like Blake I have a gut instinct that I need to change this I don't know why I didn't think through it.

I just said my gut is telling me this I'm going to change it all.

And the rest is history by the way you survived but I'm sure it's still regret.

Oh no it's fine. Well this question of when do you trust your gut and when do you ignore it completely has been debated probably forever but most I guess I'm just going to usefully debated by two great scientists one you've heard of and one you maybe haven't yet so Danny Conneman and Gary Klein had this what they call an adversarial collaboration.

I love those things. So great.

It's like one of Danny Conneman's many inventions.

As you know Mike you know the idea is you have a topic like is intuition good or is it bad you know should we trust our gut or should we not.

And there's two sides of the debate and these adversaries collaborate on I think usually it with research when you collect data but I think in this one they may be just talk to each other to see where they disagreed and what they came to is the surprising conclusion on when it is that we should trust our intuition.

But let me tell you a little bit more about their friendship or there I would call them frenemies but they're mostly just friends.

So Gary Klein was like Danny Conneman a brilliant social scientist but he has a very different background so he was studying firefighters and these like people who have spent their whole careers developing a kind of expertise where their gut instincts are better than most people.

So like firefighters for example when they are in a burning building they are not like you and me in a burning building who are just like panicking and we have no idea what to do we have no idea to where to run with no idea what any of the signals are like what does it mean when the smoke is like this what does it mean when you hear this cracking right that kind of thing so when you

interview an expert firefighter they may not be able to tell you in words why they would want to run out of a building and we're not going to be able to do that.

So they are going to run out of a building at a certain point as opposed to stay in or you know make one decision versus the other but they have a very strong intuition and it's just much better than your typical human being.

So Gary's experience was that got intuition is awesome like experts have in particular because that's what he was studying great intuitions another example would be chess.

In chess you know how to play chess right no I do not play chess but one of my favorite books is called the art of learning by one of the greatest chess masters ever oh Josh Wade skin yes yeah even if you don't play chess it's kind of fun to listen to people talk about fun to learn from anyway in chess there's.

Apparently this phenomenon where chess masters are sometimes able to tell you like why they made a certain move but sometimes they're not they just have a really strong intuition.

So there are lots of examples of got intuition giving you the right answer but Danny had spent his career up to that point and honestly to this day showing that intuition could lead you a stray that you can make mistakes when you go on intuition versus calculating and deliberating right.

So you've got these two great scientists on either side of a debate and what they came to was the conclusion that the answer to when is it right to trust your instinct has to criteria okay and if either of these are not fulfilled don't trust your instincts one of them is that the world has to be actually something that's predictable.

I mean the reason they say that is like there are things like the long term prospects of somebody who's drafted in the NFL honestly that's not very predictable like when you recruit somebody to an NFL football team you know this from working in professional sports there's so many things along the way injuries who else is on the team the chemistry with the coach their

family situation it's really hard to predict.

I mean some of the most famous examples of this are like Tom Brady he was drafted a hundred and ninety ninth in the NFL draft really late for the guy who becomes the greatest quarterback in the history of the sport you look at Brock party who just led the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl and he was the last draft pick two years ago was he really I didn't know that yeah

that person the final draft pick is called Mr.

Irrell. No I love that and then two years later or in his second season he is playing the starting quarterback in the Super Bowl so I just think it's this very interesting thing to your point in those instances a lot of intuition fails where is the example you're using before a firefighter in a burning building right because there are actual signals in the world that are going

to predict whether the floor is about to collapse or it's not whether the fire is dying in the world.

Whether the fire is dying down or it's about to become an inferno basically like short term things where there is something to predict that's where it got intuition you have a chance but their second criterion is important and that is that the instincts that you should trust are those that you had a lot of practice with so like you said these firefighters I mean I don't

know how often firefighters actually run into burning buildings but like a lot more than the rest of us and is repeated like there are a lot of.

There are a lot of reps so you could argue that the sleep expert who Rebecca was talking to and definitely the sleep expert that I was talking to like the trainer they've probably like shepherd did hundreds of parents through a process right and you should probably trust their gut instinct their expert intuition which is let the baby cry longer than you think then

yours as a first time parent where you have no experience so you don't have a lot of right.

And you have a lot of emotion tied to it right so look Angela and I would love to hear your thoughts on when to follow your gut and when to keep it in check so recorded voice memo and a quiet place with your mouth close to the phone and email it to NSQ at Freakinomics.com and maybe we'll play it on a future episode of the show also if you like the show and want to support it the best

thing you can do is tell a friend about it you can also spread the word on social media or leave a review in your.

Podcast out. Still to come on no stupid questions how can you improve your gut instincts sometimes I just need somebody to look me in the eye and say hey you're not crazy or you are crazy.

Now back to Mike and Angela's conversation about gut feelings.

So Mike do you play poker no but I have played blackjack and I think it's very fun okay but let's say blackjack right do you feel like you have good intuitions.

No honestly how it goes is if I'm playing blackjack I sort of use that as an opportunity to become friends with whoever is sitting next to me and let them tell me what to do because I spend very little time in casinos.

So I don't know actually almost anything about poker or blackjack or bridge but I know that when Gary and Danny were having this adversarial collaboration they specifically discussed games like poker and bridge there are regularities right it's not that you always know what's going to happen but the probabilities are actually knowable so you don't know in a kind

of deterministic way but you know in a probabilistic way and that is why you can actually develop strong and good intuitions that are fast.

These decisions are emotional as you say but one of the reasons I think we have emotions is that you know the root of emotions is moat which means to move right emotions are meant to get you to take action often very quickly.

And so you can develop these like strong and accurate got intuitions in games like poker or bridge that have a regularity to them and they have a lot of reps right so you have the chance to really learn and when I think about your story with Qualtrics you had not had a lot of reps right in making that kind of decision no and I think there are certain things like that you never

get a lot of reps in yeah you mentioned Josh weight skin the guy who wrote the book on chess the art of learning we loved it right we should recommend it to like everyone I loved it it's so good he basically goes through and just says hey I'm one of the best in the world at chess but it's not about chess it's that I know how to learn and then he goes through all these other things

where he's applied the same rules of learning that allow him to be very successful across like martial arts martial arts and I think the last time I cut up with Josh he's like doing paddle boarding but in my conversations with Josh he's talked a lot about having high rep practice with feedback right like you have to have lots of repetition with feedback on whether

you got it right or wrong right so that's why you know playing chess or poker or certain things where it's like you get immediate feedback it's highly informative it's not noisy but the last time I talked to Josh which was a few years ago now but he was talking about surfing and it was a multi way conversation I remember the other person had some experience surfing so they

were kind of getting into it and about how like there's so many there's certain kinds of surfing where you can develop intuitions as a surfer right and that's good because when you're surfing you need to act fast right you can't like whip out a paper and pencil and be like well what's the probability that his wave is going to like kill me and you said there's certain waves

that are really almost like once in a lifetime like the really big waves and you don't have the benefit of high rep practice so it's a whole other ball of wax like how do you do things where you have to use intuition but you haven't had you know the repetition to develop the intuition yeah and I think it's really hard I don't have an answer I will tell you as someone who goes

on a surf trip with two of my friends every year I forgot you surf no no no I said I go on a surf trip oh that's right you watch them so the three of us go out on our surfboards and Mitchell and Matt catch waves and then they try so hard to push me into wave to use their intuition to help me and I rarely rarely catch one and I think it's going back to this point of reps right yeah I

have not gotten the reps and I probably need to work on a bunch of other things but I have a question for you as it goes to sort of Rebecca's question there's this idea that we have when it comes to trusting our gut about okay that's true in general that's true on the average but we also have this thought that like maybe maybe my child crying is different or maybe my situation is different

so it's really cool that we have an idea of what the averages but we all convince ourselves maybe that my guts right because this situation is different and so the sleep expert will say no no no no no Rebecca trust me I've seen this thousands of times but in our heart you're like you don't know my baby yes like this particular night this particular adorable baby of mine

was not crying themselves to sleep they were just crying themselves into the need for lifelong therapy or something right like you want to say that this is the exception to the rule right I think maybe our gut actually leads us to say maybe this one's different so one of the things that Gary Klein and Danny Conham and vigorously read upon was that whatever it is you

know is it the right thing or the wrong thing to trust gut they're like the one thing you can never know is whether in the moment that is the right decision based on how strongly you feel in other words that subjective sense of certainty you're like but this time I'm going to trust my gut because it's really strong they're like you can get a strong gut intuition in one

of two ways the correct way which is oh it's based on years of experience it's based on lots of reps with great feedback the world is predictable at least in the way that I'm trying to deal with it right now but you can also get to it through what you're doing is that you're not going to be able to do that but you're not going to be able to do that but you're not going to be able

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to be able to do that and you're not going to be able to do that but you're not going to be able to do that but you're not going to be able to do that I think what Gary and Danny would agree upon is that we have intuitions and their signals we have the capacity that only human beings do which is to really be thoughtful and have second thoughts and be a two handed economist and then

we have to actually take both of those inputs if we have time I find that the easiest way for me to do this it's almost like a cheat is that I just talked to another person I just talked to Jason I just say like my instincts as this I just talked to another person I just talked to another person I just talked to another person I just talked to another person I just talked to

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