You're listening to Business English Pod, the Business English podcast for professionals on the move.
Hello, and welcome back to Business English Pod.
My name's Edwin and I'll be your host for today's lesson on discussing future scenarios in a planning meeting.
Business planning doesn't look like it used to.
The world today holds so many surprises and so much uncertainty.
There is constant and unrelenting change, and sometimes it feels like we're just trying to keep up.
In these circumstances, it's a good idea to map out possible future scenarios.
This type of exercise is often built on several key uncertainties that you've already identified.
Mapping out the different scenarios is necessary before you can begin to develop strategies to respond to these possible future situations.
One thing you'll do when you discuss scenarios is make predictions.
In some cases, you'll be able to make predictions with a great degree of certainty.
In others, you'll have to check whether you're more certain than you should be.
In particular, you might be affected by availability bias, where the available information leads you to make predictions with too much certainty.
Because we can't always be certain.
We find ourselves discussing the likelihood of certain events or how probable they are.
It can be tempting at this point to begin evaluating possible strategies, but it's best to resist this and focus on the scenarios first.
And throughout, you should watch out for assumptions that might cloud your thinking or make you think unclearly.
In today's dialogue, we'll rejoin a discussion at a large retail firm.
Natasha and Daniel are executives discussing their country's situation with Gwen, who is based in the US.
The group is mapping out scenarios based on the situation they've already discussed.
As you listen to the dialogue, try to answer the following questions.
1.
What does Natasha predict with certainty?
Two, according to Daniel, how likely is it that sales will go down 30%?
Three, what assumption does Natasha call Daniel out on?
In any case, those are the things we're waiting on right now.
There's also a lot of talk about going back into lockdown.
So many factors, I know.
But let's start with the worst-case scenario, shall we?
Okay, worst case.
For starters, no rent subsidy for larger businesses.
Pretty clear that's the way they'll go.
Yeah, there's that.
So, we're facing some tough choices when it comes to leasing costs and such.
Right.
And now we're starting to hear from landlords that they aren't going to be so flexible down the road, looking to take care of their own revenue heading into the holidays.
So we shouldn't count on any help from them.
Is that a given?
That's just what we've heard from some, right?
I get more positive vibes from the urban malls.
Yeah, but this is worst case, right?
Right.
Okay then, and in this scenario, we need to include softer sales over the holidays.
Worst case, I'd say down 30% on last year.
And honestly, I think there's a really good chance of that happening.
Just looking at how things are trending, I mean.
Assuming a four-week lockdown and all.
So then best case is just a two-week lockdown?
A reset, as they're calling it?
Yeah, lockdown's a given.
It's just a question of how long.
So in that case, then, we'd be smart not to close any stores, right?
We've no chance of maintaining sales if there's nowhere for people to shop.
Well, we're not really debating the merits of different strategies quite yet.
Just outlining scenarios.
Alright.
So, can we loop back to relief support schemes?
I say, best case is more furlough support.
80% of wages, across the board.
I really think there's a good chance of that.
Seriously?
Sounds like you're assuming there's no limit to the relief they'll provide.
You've read the news.
The finance minister herself said they can't just print money.
She also said they can't afford not to invest in recovery.
Okay, okay.
Let's not get stuck in the weeds here.
I'd like to flesh out the best case a bit more.
Then we can move on and talk about what we're going to do about it.
Now let's go through the dialogue again and look at the language and techniques the group used in their discussion.
One thing to note is that in scenario planning, we often talk about worst case and best case, or the worst possible situation and best possible situation.
Between these, we may also discuss the medium case scenario.
In any case, Those are the things we're waiting on right now.
There's also a lot of talk about going back into lockdown.
So many factors, I know.
But let's start with the worst-case scenario, shall we?
Okay, worst case.
For starters, no rent subsidy for larger businesses.
Pretty clear that's the way they'll go.
Gwen wants to begin by discussing the worst-case scenario.
According to Natasha, her scenario would mean that large businesses like theirs would not get any rent subsidy.
In other words, the government wouldn't provide financial support to help pay rent.
Natasha doesn't just present this as a possibility.
She presents it as something that will probably happen.
Or, as she says, it's pretty clear it will happen.
As we go through different scenarios, it is useful to identify things we can predict with certainty.
Let's try some more ways of doing this.
I'm pretty certain our rent will increase next year.
It seems clear that we'll see some savings on costs.
I'd say there's an excellent chance we'll see a big increase in revenue.
There's really no way the competition can win this court case.
It's clear that leasing costs, or the cost of store space, is a big factor for the company.
So if the government is unlikely to support them, how about landlords or the property owners?
Let's listen.
Yeah, there's that.
So we're facing some tough choices when it comes to leasing costs and such.
Right.
And now we're starting to hear from landlords that they aren't going to be so flexible down the road, looking to take care of their own revenue heading into the holidays.
So we shouldn't count on any help from them.
Natasha seems to think landlords won't help out the stores, based on what she's starting to hear.
What does Daniel think?
Daniel clearly doesn't want to take a lack of support from landlords as a given or something that's very likely to happen.
He calls attention to the fact that Natasha only heard from some landlords, but not necessarily most or all of them.
When we talk about the future, sometimes we base our predictions on the information that's available.
We do this even when that information isn't sufficient.
So in scenario planning it's important to resist this kind of thinking, which we call availability bias.
What are some other ways of resisting availability bias?
Let's try some more examples.
Sure, we hear a lot about protests, but they're not as widespread as people think.
It's only a couple of big companies that have had this kind of problem.
Just because we saw this happen last year doesn't mean it'll happen again.
I know a lot of people have quit recently, but there's no reason to think it'll continue.
Back to the dialogue as the team discusses something that is more likely to happen.
Yeah, but this is worst case, right?
Right.
Okay, then.
And in this scenario, we need to include softer sales over the holidays.
Worst case, I'd say down 30% on last year.
And honestly, I think there's a really good chance of that happening.
Just looking at how things are trending, I mean, assuming a four-week lockdown and all.
As we've seen in scenario planning, we talk about both what is possible and what is probable.
In talking about sales, Daniel starts by saying that a 30 decrease would be the worst case scenario.
Then he says there's a really good chance of that happening.
So a 30% decrease is not just possible, but highly probable.
When we discuss likelihood like this, we often talk about the chance of something happening, expressed as a percentage or fraction.
We also talk about how likely things are.
Let's run through some more examples of discussing likelihood with these expressions.
There's probably a 50% chance that we'll win this contract.
It seems very likely that our project will be approved by the government.
I think we have a one in three chance of beating last year's sales numbers.
Honestly, the possibility of this seems pretty slim.
Now let's skip ahead in the dialogue as the group moves on to discuss the best case scenario.
So then best case is just a two-week lockdown?
A reset, as they're calling it?
Yeah, lockdown's a given.
It's just a question of how long.
The group is discussing a lockdown, which is when the government orders stores to close and people to stay home.
What does Natasha think about a possible lockdown?
So in that case, then, we'd be smart not to close any stores, right?
We've no chance of maintaining sales if there's nowhere for people to shop.
Well, we're not really debating the merits of different strategies quite yet, just outlining scenarios.
Natasha is keen to jump into discussing what they should actually do when it comes to store closures.
In her opinion, they shouldn't close any stores.
But at this stage of scenario planning, all they should be doing is talking about possible futures.
Once they've done that, they can talk strategy.
Sir Gwen points out to Natasha that they're not debating or discussing which strategies might or might not work.
Rather, they're just outlining or summarizing possible scenarios.
Resisting discussing strategies until you have mapped out the scenarios is effective.
It helps you get a good understanding of possible futures first, so you can strategize more effectively.
Let's try some more ways of resisting evaluating strategies at this stage.
Let's just wait until the next session to actually evaluate possible responses.
Whether it would work or not isn't the issue at this time.
It's important to focus on possibilities for now and assess them later.
Now let's listen as Daniel loops back to, or returns to another key uncertainty furlough and wage support.
All right.
So, can we loop back to relief support schemes?
I say, best case is more furlough support.
80% of wages across the board.
I really think there's a good chance of that.
Seriously?
Sounds like you're assuming there's no limit to the relief they'll provide.
You've read the news.
The finance minister herself said they can't just print money.
Again?
You can hear the group discussing both possibility and probability.
Daniel thinks there's a good chance of getting 80% wage support from the government.
But just as Daniel called out Natasha's biases earlier, Natasha is calling out Daniel's assumptions on this point.
She criticizes his assumption that the government will just keep printing money or offering new financial support.
This back and forth of stating possibilities and calling out assumptions helps you arrive at likely scenarios.
You're trying to ensure you're making predictions with evidence and not just relying on your intuition.
Natasha called out Daniel's assumptions very directly.
Depending on the situation, you might want to be a bit more diplomatic or gentle in how you call out assumptions.
Let's practice a variety of ways to do this.
How can you really know that the other guys won't do this first?
I think we should be careful not to think that nothing else will change.
It sounds like you're assuming the team will be exactly the same next year.
Now let's hear the last bit of dialogue.
She also said they can't afford not to invest in recovery.
Okay, okay.
Let's not get stuck in the weeds here.
I'd like to flesh out the best case a bit more.
Then we can move on and talk about what we're going to do about it.
Gwen doesn't want to get stuck in the weeds or caught up in the details.
It's tough to know exactly how much detail to get caught up in when you discuss scenarios.
But overall, you need enough precision for the decision, as they say in planning.
And it sounds like the group is laying out enough possibilities to develop some strategies.
Now let's practice some of the language we learned in today's lesson.
Imagine you are a manager with a retail firm.
Your company is faced with increasing competition and you're mapping out scenarios based on what your closest competitor might do.
You'll hear a cue from the executive.
Then I'll give you a suggestion for what you can say in response.
We'll guide you through each step in the practice and provide an example answer for each response.
Ready?
Let's give it a go.
So do you think the competition will move into the area?
Start by predicting with certainty that they'll open a new store within a year.
Answer.
Yes, I'd say it's pretty certain they'll open a new store within a year.
Really?
Because they just cancelled the one in Springfield.
Now say that's one recent example and doesn't really mean they won't open any others.
Answer.
Well, that's one recent example, which doesn't mean they won't open any others.
I see.
So in this scenario, you think it would impact sales?
Next, say there's a very good chance that sales would decrease about 10%.
Answer.
Yes.
There's a very good chance sales would drop by about 10%.
Well, in that case, I think the best approach is to ramp up advertising.
Now say that you want to talk about all possibilities before evaluating approaches.
Answer.
I'd really like to talk about all possibilities before evaluating approaches.
Okay, I'm just worried that a 10% drop in sales is going to impact profits.
Finally, say that you don't want to assume that costs will remain the same.
Well, let's not assume that our costs will remain the same.
Now let's practice some of the vocabulary we've covered in this lesson.
In a moment, you'll hear a series of sentences with a word replaced with a beep.
Repeat each sentence, including the missing word.
For example, if you hear...
You can say, We've seen an increase in sales across the board.
After each response, we'll provide the correct answer.
Let's begin.
Can we focus on the problem instead of getting stuck in the Answer.
Can we focus on the problem instead of getting stuck in the weeds?
At the end of the meeting, let's loop to this issue again.
Answer.
At the end of the meeting, let's loop back to this issue again.
I'm really not getting a lot of positive from my new manager.
Answer.
I'm really not getting a lot of positive vibes from my new manager.
In the worst case, fuel costs will increase.
Answer.
In the worst-case scenario, fuel costs will increase.
We've also covered how to resist evaluating strategies and how to call out assumptions.
Thanks for listening, and see you again soon.
